Djokovic needs to take a page from fed and skip Madrid

I really don't see the point for Novak of playing in Madrid.

1. He has played a lot of tennis this season, more than anyone else

2. His goal is the FO not racking up a record haul of masters

3. Madrid's conditions are not a got warm up for the FO as the ball plays completely differently at Madrid

4. Nadal's homecourt is where Nadal would be most likely able to turn the tide on Novak and regain some confidence

5. He can't go on this pace forever, I mean if he goes the distance in Madrid and in Rome by the working end of the FO and by wimby he runs the risk of serious burnout.

6. The lions share of points on tour get decided in short 4 and half month burst from mid April to early September almost all the points during the season are played out in rapid fire from early spring to late summer.

7. Madrid's only value since it is not a good indicator or warmup for RG is for points. The guy has such a big lead that it is unlikely he will be caught for the number 1 ranking

8. The Spanish fans are enormous Aholes to him and who needs the grief

I agree with you.

I guess maybe further denting Nadals confidence would be one reason to play it... but could backfire too as you say.

Yes exactly Ruffin not worth the risk, he already has handed Nadal a lopsided win on clay to dent his confidence. Going to Madrid is simply not worth the exertion and the risk.

Isn't it a mandatory tournament ?

He would take a point penalty I think IMBL. Don't know the specifics, but since he has more points right now than Fed and Nadal combined it probably won't make a big difference.

He could claim a dubious injury, I am sure he has some sort of niggle he could claim for a rest.

Completely agree.
This isn't 2011 when he was riding a tidal wave of confidence.
Back to back masters (where the clay is quite stark in contrast) is not at all what he needs.
If Rome was first then I would do Rome and skip Madrid as a good run the week before a big event can really cream cracker you. As this isn't the case, deffo skip madrid.

I agree - Madrid as a tournament is a waste of time - there is more than enough time for preparation for the French Open without it, and it's only on the schedule because the ATP wants to cash in on the success of Nadal, and the illusion of Spanish tennis being a phenomenon. I lost interest in this tournament when it was an indoor tournament in the fall in 2006 and the crowd gave Berdych the business for shushing them - how insecure do you have to be to be so offended by such an innocuous act? Ridiculous. Then they had the temerity to boo Ion Tiriac in 2012 after he moved heaven and earth to get a legitimate historical tournament like Hamburg off the schedule, and replaced with this monstrosity. And just because he dared to change the color of the clay (it's not the first time a clay tournament has been played on something other than red clay, by the way) to make it better for television audiences. Again, you've got to be really insecure to boo a man who has done more for that tournament than anyone in Spain could be relied on to do.

Aside from that rant, I agree that it serves no purpose to Djokovic's preparations for Roland Garros - if I were him I would drop it from my schedule. It's too close to the other 1000s, it's not representative of the conditions at RG, and it will not add to his legacy at all when it is removed from the ATP schedule 3 years after Nadal retires.

MMT1 wrote:I agree - Madrid as a tournament is a waste of time - there is more than enough time for preparation for the French Open without it, and it's only on the schedule because the ATP wants to cash in on the success of Nadal, and the illusion of Spanish tennis being a phenomenon.  I lost interest in this tournament when it was an indoor tournament in the fall in 2006 and the crowd gave Berdych the business for shushing them - how insecure do you have to be to be so offended by such an innocuous act? Ridiculous. Then they had the temerity to boo Ion Tiriac in 2012 after he moved heaven and earth to get a legitimate historical tournament like Hamburg off the schedule, and replaced with this monstrosity. And just because he dared to change the color of the clay (it's not the first time a clay tournament has been played on something other than red clay, by the way) to make it better for television audiences. Again, you've got to be really insecure to boo a man who has done more for that tournament than anyone in Spain could be relied on to do.

Aside from that rant, I agree that it serves no purpose to Djokovic's preparations for Roland Garros - if I were him I would drop it from my schedule.  It's too close to the other 1000s, it's not representative of the conditions at RG, and it will not add to his legacy at all when it is removed from the ATP schedule 3 years after Nadal retires.

I also liked Madrid better when it was an indoor tournament late in the year. It gave us a fast court event in the European swing to go along with paris. In the here and now I just think the cost benefits analysis doesn't make sense you risk giving Nadal back his mojo against you, and you go through the wear and tear of another tournament that doesn't help you get ready for RG. Honestly, though Tiriac's blue clay was a joke, but that aside the Spanish fans are pretty nasty to Novak in particular and Nadal's opponents during that week. It is not a good display of etiquette or sportsmanship on their part.

I agree. This is a waste of time tournament for Novak.

It does more harm than good toward the goal of winning RG and it is home to the worst crowd on the tour.

A "training niggle" would be very useful for him right now.

Makes no ends whether Djokovic plays Madrid or not. He's not gonna win the French Open.

Ok Gerry but it is not just about the French it is also about having juice in your come wimby and the US hardcourts.

What? Why?

He should play, we all want a tired Djoko for FO.

Yes.

He will be able to skip a Masters without penalty I think - I haven't checked but he is surely well past the number of matches needed to have a free pass on one each year.

Agree he should skip Madrid. The main risk to his CYGS ambitions (which should be his long-term target for the year is being burnt-out by overplaying on the clay. Focus has to be on being fresh for RG.

He won't be burnt out, he's got great stamina, I think he should play- he's also got a great chance of winning.

A good argument by Socal (although isn't Fed playing Madrid this year as well as he often plays it, it's Rome he's looking at skipping).

Is there a chance, however tiny, that he could win all 9 masters sort of a CYMS? It's tempting to consider playing every masters until he loses one for that reason. Maybe just play Madrid-Rome-FO-Wimbledon-Canada-Cincinatti-US Open and nothing else in that period. Might just about be OK?

In 2011 he seemed to be OK through to about FO/Wimbledon and then was tailing off by around Canada/Cincinatti (lost one of those finals on tiredness I think) before peaking at the US Open and then really tailed off at the end of the season.

Ha, do you know that in 2013 Rafa almost did that but just failed at Wimbledon? He won Madrid, Rome, FO, Montreal, Cincy and USO! He also won Barcelona before that and reached the final at MC; oh he also reached the final at Beijing after the USO!

2013 was undoubtedly a great season for Rafa - indeed his best on the tour so far in terms of overall quality. Ten titles in all, including 2 Slams and several MS, speaks for itself. Very impressive.

Since then the injury layoffs have reduced his title tally to five during the last 18 months. Seems unlikely that he will enjoy a 2013 "repeat" between now & retirement ; but I imagine he knows it.

Yep, too bad for Rafa. I think Rafa was the only one who came close to doing that. Novak in his best year failed at FO and Cincy; Fed in 2009 won Madrid, FO, Wimbledon, Cincy but failed at Rome, Canada and reached final at the USO.

Oh, Rafa in 2010 won three slams and Madrid and Rome but failed at Canada and Cincy. I think it's unlikely that anyone could win three slams in a row plus the four Masters mentioned.

Rafa had done the clean sweep of 3 clay Masters plus the FO in 2010; the Queens plus Wimbledon once in 2008 and the NA USO series of Canada/Cincy/USO in 2013. He missed out the AO/IW/Miami, in 2009 where he won AO, IW but reached only the QF of Miami.

Novak is always strong at the beginning of the year and he has done the AO/IW/Miami twice, in 2011 and 2015, impressive. He has also won all four of Beijing, Shanghai, Paris and WTF in 2013, incredible. He missed the USO series in 2011 by not winning Cincy. It's hard to beat Novak's records on the HCs these days.

lags72 wrote:2013 was undoubtedly a great season for Rafa - indeed his best on the tour so far in terms of overall quality. Ten titles in all, including 2 Slams and several MS, speaks for itself. Very impressive.

Since then the injury layoffs have reduced his title tally to five during the last 18 months. Seems unlikely that he will enjoy a 2013 "repeat" between now & retirement ; but I imagine he knows it.

Maybe not of that level but I also don't see him being as bad he has been the last few months either. I think he will adjust to the new racquet and also adjust his tactics to the older version of himself and with some confidence be back in the mix at the top. The issue for him though is the injuries. The only thing that can derail him would be to continually have these injuries come up as he is getting older. Unfortunately, it has been a long time since Nadal has been able to complete a whole season.

Henman Bill wrote:A good argument by Socal (although isn't Fed playing Madrid this year as well as he often plays it, it's Rome he's looking at skipping).

Is there a chance, however tiny, that he could win all 9 masters sort of a CYMS? It's tempting to consider playing every masters until he loses one for that reason. Maybe just play Madrid-Rome-FO-Wimbledon-Canada-Cincinatti-US Open and nothing else in that period. Might just about be OK?

In 2011 he seemed to be OK through to about FO/Wimbledon and then was tailing off by around Canada/Cincinatti (lost one of those finals on tiredness I think) before peaking at the US Open and then really tailed off at the end of the season.

I mean hardcore tennis fans would value that but frankly I think a single French open would trump 10 masters for Novak. Also I think a single any slam would trump any of those type of accomplishments. I think winning a great deal of masters events is definitely a big deal and big plus in a players CV. But in the long run most people just remember the slams.

socal1976 wrote:He could claim a dubious injury, I am sure he has some sort of niggle he could claim for a rest.

This isn't midway through a match you know.

bogbrush wrote:

socal1976 wrote:He could claim a dubious injury, I am sure he has some sort of niggle he could claim for a rest.

This isn't midway through a match you know.

Very funny BB. He hasn't withdrawn from a match in a very long time, and he does have a pretty well documented history of respiratory and allergic issues that he finally seems to have a handle of. But I know how hard it is for you to let a comedic opportunity get away from you, so by all means swing away.

Take a leaf out of Fed's book? Are you feeling okay socal?!

In all seriousness I do agree. Especially given how tired Novak has seemed at points since IW. He looked as flat as a pancake against Berdych on Sunday, and even before that at Miami he's looked iffy. I think he needs a rest. It can't be easy going deep at literally every tournament - 2011 was very much the exception rather than the rule. He's a few years older now, more miles on the clock, a family...and even more pressure on the potential RG win.

If he's serious about trying to win RG, he should skip Madrid. Is he not eligible for one of the three MS exemptions? I know one's age-related, one's number of tour matches but I forget the third.

Silver wrote:Take a leaf out of Fed's book? Are you feeling okay socal?!

In all seriousness I do agree. Especially given how tired Novak has seemed at points since IW. He looked as flat as a pancake against Berdych on Sunday, and even before that at Miami he's looked iffy. I think he needs a rest. It can't be easy going deep at literally every tournament - 2011 was very much the exception rather than the rule. He's a few years older now, more miles on the clock, a family...and even more pressure on the potential RG win.

If he's serious about trying to win RG, he should skip Madrid. Is he not eligible for one of the three MS exemptions? I know one's age-related, one's number of tour matches but I forget the third.

Yeah, Silver I think even if he takes a penalty he should do it. I think before the rush of points coming up in the next couple of months taking an extra week off and recharging his batteries makes the most sense. Of course if Nadal wins Barcelona and Madrid he will have regained some mojo, but not as much as if he wins against Novak on his homecourt. I think even if Novak goes, wins the tourney, and beats Nadal in the process it doesn't change much as far as Nadal is concerned and doesn't make it less likely that Nadal will win the RG, because winning the French over 5 sets is a totally different situation then what happens one way or the other in Madrid.

Unless they have changed, from memory the exemptions are 10 years on tour, 600 matches and being 31 as at the start of the year. Pretty sure he will have the 600 matches exemption.

even in 2011 didn't he take Monte Carlo off to play a small tournament in Serbia? So he's actually played even more than he did in 2011! So I guess it wouldn't hurt, however if I was a Novak fan I would want Rafa to stay down as long as possible before the French.

If Rafa wins Barcelona, then wins a Novak-less Madrid, he will have so much confidence going into Rome and Roland Garros. In my opinion that happened in 2013 when Novak lost to Dimitrov in Madrid after dominating Rafa in Monte Carlo, it allowed Rafa to gain momentum without being stalled by Novak, and he never looked back

CAS wrote:if I was a Novak fan I would want Rafa to stay down as long as possible before the French.

If Rafa wins Barcelona, then wins a Novak-less Madrid, he will have so much confidence going into Rome and Roland Garros. In my opinion that happened in 2013 when Novak lost to Dimitrov in Madrid after dominating Rafa in Monte Carlo, it allowed Rafa to gain momentum without being stalled by Novak, and he never looked back

I can see the logic in this but part of me also thinks that it might be better for Novak not to face Rafa before RG.

I think Novak snaps into his "anti-Rafa" patterns more easily than Rafa gets into his "anti-Novak" patterns, so a chance to play Novak again will probably help Rafa.

I have to say though, that I'd be surprised if they didn't meet in Rome.

Well, even if Novak beat Rafa at Rome last year, just before the FO, Rafa still went on to win the FO beating Novak in the final. I see no difference whether Novak plays in Madrid or not where Rafa is concerned, and even if they meet there, Im not sure Rafa will lose to Novak again. After Barcelona, Rafa should be even more match fit so I dont think Novak is going to beat Rafa.

Novak looked half dead in the MC final after his SF with Rafa; playing against Rafa on clay was energy zapping even when the match wasnt a long one. He was breezing through the draw before meeting Rafa, he looked lethargic after meeting Rafa.

Imo, Rafa lost the race last year because first he had his wrist injury and missed the NA HC swing and then unfortunately the appendicitis followed. He was trailing Novak by only 455 points after Wimbledon. Given how badly Novak had done at the US series last year, its not impossible that Rafa wrestled back the momentum and the lead during the USO. Novak beating Rafa at the clay Masters or not wont impact Rafa and his momentum imo, as long as Rafa wins the FO.

socal1976 wrote:I really don't see the point for Novak of playing in Madrid.



8. The Spanish fans are enormous Aholes to him and who needs the grief

I am deeply offended by this slur on the Spanish. You have made a derogatory generalisation to all Spanish fans attending and I demand that moderators take the action which they have on previous threads.

Belovedluckyboy wrote: After Barcelona, Rafa should be even more match fit so I dont think Novak is going to beat Rafa.

Novak looked half dead in the MC final after his SF with Rafa; playing against Rafa on clay was energy zapping even when the match wasnt a long one. He was breezing through the draw before meeting Rafa, he looked lethargic after meeting Rafa.

So one player has just won three Masters titles in 5 weeks, while another was pooped by 3 sets against David Ferrer, and it's the latter who we should be expecting to win the fitness battle?

HM, Rafa's fitness will improve with match play as his stamina suffers due to lacking of match play! Novak's case is different, he's suffering from fatigue due to many matches played. Tell me, you think Novak is fresh as a rose now? And you think this is Rafa's normal fitness level?

BLB, Novak is definitely flagging a bit but it's nothing that a short break won't solve.

I don't think it's really a physical issue, it's just the mental slog of a long spell of competition and a lot of travelling. Had Monte Carlo not been so close to his house, I doubt he would have won it.

Rafa's fitness will improve but, at age 29 and with a track record of injury, I'm have serious doubts that he will get back to his former highest levels.

If he beats Novak in a slam, I think it will need to be with good form in 3-4 sets. I really don't see him winning a 5 set war against him in the near future.

I think Novak suffered physically in the final against Rafa, IMO it did play a part, there's a clip where he's seen being sick on the court at one point. However Rafa was playing much better, his FHDTL was in full flow and its why it was somewhat routine after the first set, I'm not saying Novak would have won if he wasn't struggling but I don't think the score would have been the same.

I think even last year Rafa benefited from Novak missing Madrid, it just allows Rafa to gain confidence and when he does he's almost unbeatable. He doesn't need to beat the best, he needs to find his rhythm. Last year, the final in Madrid, final in Rome all accumulated by the time he reached the final in France.

I'm very keen to see Rafa play Nishikori to see where he's at.

greengoblin wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I really don't see the point for Novak of playing in Madrid.



8. The Spanish fans are enormous Aholes to him and who needs the grief

I am deeply offended by this  slur on the Spanish. You have made a derogatory generalisation to all Spanish fans attending and I demand that moderators take the action which they have on previous threads.

I am glad that you are deeply offended your annoying personality and stupid posts annoy me all the time. If you were hit by a bus I would hold a party and send the bus driver a gift basket.

CAS wrote:even in 2011 didn't he take Monte Carlo off to play a small tournament in Serbia? So he's actually played even more than he did in 2011! So I guess it wouldn't hurt, however if I was a Novak fan I would want Rafa to stay down as long as possible before the French.

If Rafa wins Barcelona, then wins a Novak-less Madrid, he will have so much confidence going into Rome and Roland Garros. In my opinion that happened in 2013 when Novak lost to Dimitrov in Madrid after dominating Rafa in Monte Carlo, it allowed Rafa to gain momentum without being stalled by Novak, and he never looked back

Yeah but Novak plays him so differently than everyone else and is such a different proposition for Nadal especially on clay than the rest of the tour is. I agree though about it cutting both ways a bit in that it could allow Nadal to build momentum and confidence and if you are Novak you would prefer him to stay down. Still it isn't just about RG you have the meat of the season coming up in quick succession and he wants to have energy for wimby and the summer hardcourt season as well.

HM, we're talking about Madrid, not RG yet! I'm not sure Novak will be in tip top conditions by the time he plays at Madrid.

CAS, They met at Rome last year and Novak beat him in the final but that didn't change anything at the FO. The FHDTL only came into play at FO, not at Rome. Rafa seemed to hold back something until he played at the FO. Also, Novak didn't seem to have good results at Madrid after he won it in 2011; he might not reach the final had he played it last year and he might not win at Rome had he played at Madrid.

I appreciate he still beat him after losing at Rome but I just think Rafa was already improving fast, my point is Novak could actually keep him down with the rankings as they are.

After losing earlyish in Monte Carlo, losing on Barcelona it didn't look great then either. However winning Madrid (somewhat fortunately) and making the final of Rome it was clear he was getting back and getting closer, another 6 matches later over 5 sets by the time the final came round he was in beast mode.

Also like I said, Novak was not right in that final IMO. I don't think Rafa is like other players, Novak has spoken before about feeling like he needs a win over a certain player, and always talks about mental advantage.

Rafa, he just needs to find that click and the longer it takes him to find it the better it is for Novak. So stopping him finding it could be great for him.

That being said I do appreciate Novak fans do not want him to burnout, also I do agree with HM that Rafa's patterns of play are harder for him to change than Novak's so playing him more might help potentially.

Actually its Rafa who played differently at the Masters and at the FO. Like I said, he used a different strategy vs Novak, ie hitting his FHDTL, something he didnt do during Rome, or at least not that much. I dont know what you mean by its harder for Rafa to change, when what I saw last year and the year before was that Rafa played Novak differently, year by year and also from Masters to Slam.

Born Slippy wrote:Unless they have changed, from memory the exemptions are 10 years on tour, 600 matches and being 31 as at the start of the year. Pretty sure he will have the 600 matches exemption.

Is it 31 and 600 matches or 31 or 600 matches?

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Actually its Rafa who played differently at the Masters and at the FO.  Like I said, he used a different strategy vs Novak, ie hitting his FHDTL, something he didnt do during Rome, or at least not that much.  I dont know what you mean by its harder for Rafa to change, when what I saw last year and the year before was that Rafa played Novak differently, year by year and also from Masters to Slam.

I think you are misunderstanding me, why didn't Rafa hit the FHDL well in Monte Carlo? He hasn't clicked yet as he needs more matches, and while he lost to Novak in Rome, for me, the warning signs were there. He played quite poorly up until Madrid then started gaining momentum, won Madrid, final in Rome he was getting there, add 6 matches over best of 5 and Rafa was Rafa again by the time he played Novak in France, so it didn't matter he had lost to Novak before.

As for why it's harder to change, Rafa's pattern of play is pretty consistent against everyone, break down the backhand, get it up high and wait for an error or short ball. However, against Novak he has to go down the line. Novak can switch tactics quicker than Rafa can not because he's better but because Rafa's style has worked for so long so it's hard to come out of it, and 99 percent of the time doesn't need to.

Federer has said for years that what he struggles with against Rafa is Rafa plays the same way against everyone, plays 6 players in a row doing the same thing, then the same against to him. Federer has to play 6 matches playing his style then change to play Rafa which messes with him.

I think Rafa experiences something similar against Novak, he suddenly has to change as his default tactic that works against everyone else doesn't work against Novak. However, he has figured out what he needs to do against him but he needs confidence and form to do it which is why in the finals of slams he's usually cracked it.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Actually its Rafa who played differently at the Masters and at the FO.  Like I said, he used a different strategy vs Novak, ie hitting his FHDTL, something he didnt do during Rome, or at least not that much.  I dont know what you mean by its harder for Rafa to change, when what I saw last year and the year before was that Rafa played Novak differently, year by year and also from Masters to Slam.

BLB rafa is pretty set on his ways and tactics in his tennis matches. He has set patterns that he uses pretty much against everyone. And against Novak he has to change those for example he can't just kick his second serve to Novak's backhand every time like he does against most players. I do agree in 2013 he changed his patterns by going for a bit more on his serve and going up the line more with the forehand but he seems to have reverted to his old patterns in most of their last few meetings.

By the way BLB remember you argued with me that Novak doesn't make Nadal hit more backhands and I told you to watch Novak play Nadal, are you still under the impression that Novak can't pressure Nadal on the backhand more than anyone else? Murdoch's article from the ATP site after the match made the same exact points that I did that you argued against me about.

CAS wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Actually its Rafa who played differently at the Masters and at the FO.  Like I said, he used a different strategy vs Novak, ie hitting his FHDTL, something he didnt do during Rome, or at least not that much.  I dont know what you mean by its harder for Rafa to change, when what I saw last year and the year before was that Rafa played Novak differently, year by year and also from Masters to Slam.

I think you are misunderstanding me, why didn't Rafa hit the FHDL well in Monte Carlo? He hasn't clicked yet as he needs more matches, and while he lost to Novak in Rome, for me, the warning signs were there. He played quite poorly up until Madrid then started gaining momentum, won Madrid, final in Rome he was getting there, add 6 matches over best of 5 and Rafa was Rafa again by the time he played Novak in France, so it didn't matter he had lost to Novak before.

As for why it's harder to change, Rafa's pattern of play is pretty consistent against everyone, break down the backhand, get it up high and wait for an error or short ball. However, against Novak he has to go down the line. Novak can switch tactics quicker than Rafa can not because he's better but because Rafa's style has worked for so long so it's hard to come out of it, and 99 percent of the time doesn't need to.

Federer has said for years that what he struggles with against Rafa is Rafa plays the same way against everyone, plays 6 players in a row doing the same thing, then the same against to him. Federer has to play 6 matches playing his style then change to play Rafa which messes with him.

I think Rafa experiences something similar against Novak, he suddenly has to change as his default tactic that works against everyone else doesn't work against Novak. However, he has figured out what he needs to do against him but he needs confidence and form to do it which is why in the finals of slams he's usually cracked it.

Great post totally agree. Rafa, runs around his backhand and likes to stand in his backhand corner and hit forehands. Against Novak that doesn't work because Novak can find the space on that side by going up the line with his backhand, he breaks Rafa's pattern of CC forehand to opponents backhand like no else. Also Nadal likes to kick 90 percent of serves to the backhand, Novak eats up Nadal's second serve on his backhand and Nadal has to serve him body or to the FH side which he doesn't like to do. Plus Novak is comfortable winning long rallies and cross court exchanges of Nadal's FH with his CC BH.

I would say He's reserving something for the slams. He's using the Masters as warm ups but he never really reveal his strategies for the slams. It's not only the FO but also the USO. Remember his big serve of 2010? Or how well he served and returned during 2013 USO final?

Also, he played Novak differently at FO from year to year - 2012 overall aggression from both wings; 2013 his BH was working very well, even hit a few very solid BHDTL shots and again very aggressive play; in 2014 he worked out a strategy to redirect Novak's BH to go DTL with his own FH, to counter Novak's strategy (at Miami) of targeting Rafa's FH before attacking the BH.

Rafa being a lefty doesn't have to make changes that much as he plays against mostly righties. However, Rafa could sense the weakness of his opponents and at times target their FH instead, eg Gasquet, Youzhny when he knows their FH is their weaker wing. '

I don't buy the idea that Rafa holds tactics back for the slams.

He's said a number of times about the FHDTL, it's a shot he hits effectively when he is confident. He doesn't just pull it out of the toolbox as circumstances demand.

When he was overflowing with confidence in the US HCs in 2013, he was hitting it time and again.

In the clay swing last year, we didn't see it until the latter stages of RG because it took until then to get his confidence up.

But Novak definitely has the advantage in the stylistic match up. Even when Rafa is in top form and hitting his FHDTL (or whatever tactic) well, Novak still takes sets off Rafa.

Rafa hasn't beaten Novak in straight sets since Rome 2012.

Five of Novak's last six wins against Rafa were in straights.

HM Murdoch wrote:I don't buy the idea that Rafa holds tactics back for the slams.

He's said a number of times about the FHDTL, it's a shot he hits effectively when he is confident. He doesn't just pull it out of the toolbox as circumstances demand.

When he was overflowing with confidence in the US HCs in 2013, he was hitting it time and again.

In the clay swing last year, we didn't see it until the latter stages of RG because it took until then to get his confidence up.

But Novak definitely has the advantage in the stylistic match up. Even when Rafa is in top form and hitting his FHDTL (or whatever tactic) well, Novak still takes sets off Rafa.

Rafa hasn't beaten Novak in straight sets since Rome 2012.

Five of Novak's last six wins against Rafa were in straights.

Yes totally agree, I think in the summer of 2013 Novak was surprised about how much Nadal was going up the line and how Nadal also was a bit more aggressive on his serve and directing it more to Novak's forehand. We haven't seen Nadal do that very much against Novak in recent matchups. We certainly saw almost none of it in the final on sunday. If you look at this rivalry Novak has won 5 out of the last 6 times they have played with of course the one huge loss being at Roland Garros.

Matchup wise Nadal has huge problems against Djoko since 2011 the h2h is 13-7 in favor of Novak. This tells me that it is not a good matchup for Nadal and that the rivalry is very much on Novak's racquet. I believe that most of Novak's problems against Nadal at RG has been mental, call it choking if you like. He has built up this slam so much for himself and at times the last few years he has been mentally fragile in big finals of slams that when Nadal presses him a little as he is bound to do at RG Novak crumbles. Key point the net incident, or being up a break in the final set and then getting tight again to lose in the5 setter.

Djokovic's skill set is a very tough matchup for Nadal. As Nadal himself has said that Novak has better serve and a better return than him, so most of the initiative in most points is ceded from the get go. And Novak likes the ball high, Nadal gives you a lot of high balls. Nadal likes to almost always kick his second serve to the backhand, Novak murders second serve backhand returns. And while Nadal has a better forehand especially on clay his forehand is not that much better if Djokovic plays well to outweigh the advantages Novak has on the backhand, court positioning, serve, and return. Nadal however does have the advantage I feel in that he does not crack in the heat of battle and under pressure and that has been the reason he has held his fortress at RG more than anything.

Yes, Socal, I agree.

Since AO12, it is 6-3 to Novak outside of the slams.

At the slams, it is 4-0 to Rafa.

Although, to be honest, Novak's slam final record after AO12 was poor for a long time. He was something like 1 win in the last 6 slam finals going into Wimbledon, wasn't he?

Yes, I think the 5 set format because of Novak's up and down nature in his focus and belief tends to favor Nadal. Nadal can keep a very high level of concentration and fight throughout while Novak seems to wrestle with demons in those type of matches. He also has a tendency to just give away breaks that are really more to do with his own poor shot selection and errors than what his opponent does. Over a three set match he typically gifts one break over a five set match the number increases to two or three gift breaks which makes it very hard to win.

It is interesting that Novak has such a reputation for mental toughness, I think he can be mentally tough but not always is he a great competitor. I think if you just look at shots and athleticism he should already have FO or two. But when it comes to fighting and not getting distracted or frustrated Nadal is the best, and it is a hard thing to quantify. Yet in a 5 set tennis match it is huge. I mean shot wise if you go down the list in most areas Novak holds the edge in the matchup and he wins most of the 3 set matches. But when it gets into a physical and mental war over 5 sets especially on clay somehow the advantage shifts to Nadal.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:I would say He's reserving something for the slams.  He's using the Masters as warm ups but he never really reveal his strategies for the slams. It's not only the FO but also the USO. Remember his big serve of 2010? Or how well he served and returned during 2013 USO final?

Also, he played Novak differently at FO from year to year - 2012 overall aggression from both wings; 2013 his BH was working very well, even hit a few very solid BHDTL shots and again very aggressive play; in 2014 he worked out a strategy to redirect Novak's BH  to go DTL with his own FH, to counter Novak's strategy (at Miami) of targeting Rafa's FH before attacking the BH.

Rafa being a lefty doesn't have to make changes that much as he plays against mostly righties.  However, Rafa could sense the weakness of his opponents and at times target their FH instead, eg Gasquet, Youzhny when he knows their FH is their weaker wing. '

I think when Rafa plays Gasquet he still attacks the backhand, its the Frenchmens stronger wing but it's still easier to break down as even Gasquet can't hint winners from a meter above his shoulder!

This is a quote from Wawrinka after the Madrid final in 2013, in my opinion Stans single hander is better than Gasquet's:

"he's lefty and puts so much topspin on his forehand; and to have the backhand always high, it's difficult because I don't have the power of my two arms. I only have one arm. So I need to have the perfect timing to play a strong shot."


I think it's why he has trouble with Gulbis somewhat. I know he's never actually lost but it's always a struggle. He still attacks the Latvians backhand too much as he enjoys that pattern of play.

I'm not saying Rafa is a one trick pony, it's that his pattern of play is so devastating he doesn't need to ever change it, in 2011 I think Rafa was so rattled it didn't work against Novak he felt lost but eventually worked out a plan, it's just that it's higher risk than he's used to so needs overwhelming belief.