OWGR May 2015, The Quest for US Open and Open Championship Exemption

This weekends winners are Rory (Regains a Hammerlock on #1) in the Cadillac Matchplay, IJ Jang on the Japanese Tour  (about #220), Vaughn Groenwald on the Sunshine Tour (to about #425), Smylie Kaufman on the Web-com Tour (to about #328).

This is what the Top 100 should look like tomorrow.  The Open Championship deadline says Week 21, which I think is May 25th for the Top 50.  The US Open exemption deadline are June 8th and June 15th.

 

1	Rory	McIlroy	12.625
2	Jordan	Spieth	9.052
3	Henrik	Stenson	7.250
4	Bubba	Watson	7.154
5	Jim	Furyk	6.980
6	Justin	Rose	6.430
7	Jason	Day	6.375
8	Dustin	Johnson	6.050
9	Adam	Scott	5.684
10	Sergio	Garcia	5.582
11	Jimmy	Walker	5.299
12	J.B.	Holmes	5.044
13	Rickie	Fowler	4.667
14	Hideki	Matsuyama	4.486
15	Patrick	Reed	4.449
16	Matt	Kuchar	4.410
17	Martin	Kaymer	4.301
18	Phil	Mickelson	4.179
19	Billy	Horschel	3.845
20	Brooks	Koepka	3.578
21	Victor	Dubuisson	3.424
22	Kevin	Na	3.403
23	Lee	Westwood	3.333
24	Louis	Oosthuizen	3.309
25	Bill	Haas	3.297
26	Chris	Kirk	3.265
27	Zach	Johnson	3.260
28	Ryan	Palmer	3.249
29	Ian	Poulter	3.168
30	Hunter	Mahan	3.157
31	Ryan	Moore	3.117
32	Gary	Woodland	3.097
33	Jamie	Donaldson	3.077
34	Paul	Casey	3.023
35	Graeme	McDowell	2.896
36	Anirban	Lahiri	2.883
37	Keegan	Bradley	2.871
38	Danny	Willett	2.853
39	Charl	Schwartzel	2.824
40	Branden	Grace	2.776
41	Brandt	Snedeker	2.762
42	Bernd	Wiesberger	2.614
43	Matt	Every	2.585
44	Stephen	Gallacher	2.552
45	Joost	Luiten	2.536
46	Brendon	Todd	2.525
47	Thongchai	Jaidee	2.483
48	Webb	Simpson	2.480
49	Russell	Henley	2.454
50	Tommy	Fleetwood	2.383
***Open Champ Deadline May 25th
51	Shane	Lowry	2.341
52	Charley	Hoffman	2.324
53	Marc	Warren	2.273
54	John	Senden	2.263
55	Luke	Donald	2.221
56	Alexander	Levy	2.218
57	Marc	Leishman	2.198
58	Cameron	Tringale	2.191
59	Harris	English	2.142
60	Andy	Sullivan	2.125
***US Open Deadlines June 8th and 15th
61	Tim	Clark	2.124
62	Jason	Dufner	2.120
63	George	Coetzee	2.088
64	Daniel	Berger	2.073
65	Matt	Jones	2.060
66	Ben	Martin	2.012
67	Thomas	Bjorn	1.986
68	Mikko	Ilonen	1.979
69	Miguel A	Jimenez	1.935
70	Francesco	Molinari	1.927
71	Marcel	Siem	1.921
72	Kevin	Streelman	1.903
73	Richie	Ramsay	1.847
74	Graham	Delaet	1.816
75	Ross	Fisher	1.812
76	Russell	Knox	1.766
77	Kiradech	Aphibarnrat	1.745
78	Koumei	Oda	1.744
79	Brendon	de Jonge	1.739
80	Sangmoon	Bae	1.715
81	Steve	Stricker	1.703
82	Ernie	Els	1.699
83	Nick	Watney	1.683
84	Morgan	Hoffmann	1.678
85	Padraig	Harrington	1.671
86	Justin	Thomas	1.669
87	Hiroshi	Iwata	1.659
88	Shawn	Stefani	1.644
89	Emiliano	Grillo	1.619
90	Pablo	Larrazabal	1.603
91	Robert	Streb	1.594
92	Brendan	Steele	1.593
93	Scott	Piercy	1.578
94	Jonas	Blixt	1.567
95	Angel	Cabrera	1.555
96	James	Hahn	1.554
97	Kevin	Stadler	1.537
98	Romain	Wattel	1.519
99	Gary	Stal	1.518
100	Brian	Harman	1.514

GPB,

From what I can see, all the European Tour members from 40th thru Marcel Siem in 71st are in Open Championship except:
40th: Grace
42nd: Wiesberger
assume both will be OK within Top 50,
55th: Donald
70th: Molinari
Then Ramsay is not yet exempt.

Every & Snedeker look to be the only Americans in the Top 40 at any sort of risk for St.Andrews.

Great thread GPB, aren't the US Open qualies usually before the cut off date?

"Local qualifying" began this week sirb.

Should have mentioned I was lazily asking about Sectional Qualifying! I found it out haha.

Coetzee provisionally up to #50 depending on Jacksonville results.

As of this morning, Luke Donald is down to 60th and Tiger down to #132.

I see Lukey is signed up for RCD as well as Wentworth; he'll be about 160th in FedEx pts by the time he plays the PGA Tour again.
Needs to turn things round in a hurry, should make travel plans now for Europe during FedEx play-offs.

kwinigolfer wrote:I see Lukey is signed up for RCD as well as Wentworth; he'll be about 160th in FedEx pts by the time he plays the PGA Tour again.
Needs to turn things round in a hurry, should make travel plans now for Europe during FedEx play-offs.

I think his PGATour exemptions run out this year unless the Match Play was a 3 yr exemption at the time he won it.

He is 14th on the career money list so he has a Top 25 and Top 50 all time money list in his back pocket.

'Dubai Duty Free Irish Open Hosted by the Rory Foundation'

Sorry, but what kind of title is that? Sounds like something Bono's tax advisor would attend..

GPB,
Mac pointed out that Luke gets a 5-year nod (Category 9) for being leading money winner in 2011, so he's pretty much got next year and then options for two more, if he needs them.
Hope he snaps out of his funk, would think he's one of golf's good guys.

Top 6 remain the same, then Sergio, JDay, Rickie, and DJ fill out the top 10.

Kisner moves into top 70.

Luke at #60...Tiger at #133.

Adam Scott out of the top 10 for the first time since July 2012.

GPB,
What do you reckon on the owgr points for this week?
About 30 in Spain and perhaps 48 in Charlotte?

Kevin Na the only significant (from a ranking standpoint anyway) withdrawal so far from QH.

kwinigolfer wrote:GPB,
What do you reckon on the owgr points for this week?
About 30 in Spain and perhaps 48 in Charlotte?

Kevin Na the only significant (from a ranking standpoint anyway) withdrawal so far from QH.

PD's twitter account is good for an early projection.  52 for QH and the Euro Min for Open de Espana (24 pts).  Not sure if PD was counting Na,

Frankie is listed in both fields.

Frankie Goes To Espana.

Surprised that Sergio and Vickie D haven't elevated "Spain" more; disappointing.

I see Espana is up to 26 pts, still 52 for Wells Fargo.

kwinigolfer wrote:I see Espana is up to 26 pts, still 52 for Wells Fargo.

PD is probably counting on Doobie Withdrawing at the last minute.

Quick glance at the early Colonial field strength looks to be down 4-6 points from it's 54 last year... probably 6 I'm guessing...

Even with this decline.. it appears as though the average points of PGAT events (including majors, WGC's) is still trending up about 0.3 points so far this year to about 51.1. (46.3 w/o majors/WGC's)  It would be up about 1.3, except for the calendar shift of the 24 point Sanderson Farms into the early Fall PGAT schedule.

Meanwhile the Euro Tour seems to have stemmed the decline it experienced from 2012-2014... as it's also up about 1 point average so far to about 37.2.   (30.9 with Majors & WGC's removed) My guess is for an improved Irish Open rating (26 last year)... and of course BMW is a constant 64 flagship (but field strength rates to about a 52) Hard to project past that.

One other point of comparison...   Through the BMW PGA... and despite the increase in average, The Euro Tour will actually down a total of 52 winners points due to 2 less events on the 2015 schedule vs 2014.   One of those events will get made up as there are 22 events remaining on the ET schedule this year after the BMW (and excluding majors and WGC).  Last year there were 21.  Net for the year looks to be a loss of 1 event from the ET schedule unless another event is added.  (5 lost events from last year... 4 replacements)

For comparison... the PGAT is actually up 54 winners points for the year through next weeks Colonial estimate above... 24 of them due to the shift of Sanderson Farms into the Fall... the other 30 from increases in existing events.  PGAT will add one more alternate event to it's count for 2014-15 season as well (Barbasol)... for a net increase of 2 events over the prior season (but one of those due to the Sanderson shift as noted)

James Morrison gets inside the Top 150 with his win in the Open de Espana.

Adam Bland gets inside the Top 200 with his win in Japan.

Max Orrin wins the Challenge Tour event in Denmark and rises to about #270.

Sergio did not do enough in Spain to keep #6 spot, he trades places with Jason Day.

If Rory goes on to win the Wells Fargo event he will have nearly a 4.5 lead on Jordan which is the equivalent of 2+ Majors.

GPB wrote:
If Rory goes on to win the Wells Fargo event he will have nearly a 4.5 lead on Jordan which is the equivalent of 2+ Majors.

That really is quite astonishing - I know there are pros and cons of the current OGWR system - as there are for any alternative suggestions, but you seem to be saying that if Spieth were to win the US Open AND the Open, so making 3/4 of the Grand Slam in a single year, he still wouldn't be No. 1?

I think the current system is about as good as it can be, but really that doesn't seem right

Yes, that basically is true.  If Rory wins today, he is about 230 points from being #1.

Padraig won 3 majors out of 6 and wasn't even close to getting the #1 spot back in August 2008.

The devaluation of points over time is about right imi.
It then all comes down to the artificial owgr rating of Majors, WGCs, Players, BMW etc., and how 2nd, 3rd etc places are awsrded.
One could argue that all tourneys should only carry the rating the sof entitles to and that the difference btw 1st and 2nd place is too big.
Dunno how that would put Rory, but not worse I guess.

Both the US Open and Open Championship deadlines are this coming week.

Top 60 and better get into the US Open.
Top 50 and better get into the Open Championship.

The US Open has one mulligan, the rankings on Jun 15.

The Open Championship does not have mulligan for the rankings but I think the alternate list starts at #51.  (not sure)

How much was the Masters topped up this year?

It would be interesting to see the masters SOF vs The players SOF.

GPB
What does Harrington need to get into the US Open by the end of this week?

Top 3 I assume

sirbenson wrote:GPB
What does Harrington need to get into the US Open by the end of this week?

Top 3 I assume

Two Way T3 should be enough to get Harrington into the Top 60.

US Open qualifying for Paddy!

Luke will stay in the top 60 if 36 results counted.  He has enough points to move into 56th spot (ignoring how others finish).

But there are bullets, he has to dodge.  Frankie will have passed, and Jimenez is in position.  Sullivan is a good round away from passing him.

Really not many threats from the Colonial, other than Leishman and Tringale remaining ahead of him.  A top 10 for Donald should be enough, no matter what.

Luke can finish Solo 5th and still qualify for St Andrews but it is likely not enough,  He probably needs at least a solo 4th or better to crack Top 50.

Donald's duck is cooked. Qualies for him.

Looks like there will be movement in and out of the top 60 today.

Donald is nearly guaranteed to fall out of the Top 60, and Levy and Warren are also vulnerable.  Lowry should be OK with a decent round today.

Tringale also might fall out of Top 60 but he is already exempt into US Open.

Kisner, Molinari, Jimenez are in position to move into the top 60.  Grillo can also move into top 60 with a T2nd and Byeong An will get into the 50's with a win.

Brian Harman needs a great final round.

GPB

I got Frankie 58th and Marc Warren 59th in the rankings as of right now.  Sullivan is 63rd and it would take a miracle for him to make the top 60

Kisner, Tringale and Leishman can all pass Frankie and Marc.  Its going to take a great round from Tringale to pass them

Jimenez (Projected #45) and An (Projected #55) are safely into the US Open.

Assume Luke Donald is toast - a harsh lesson that basically says an "A" game schedule and a "C" game run of form, for a year!, are incompatible. He's going to find it tough going to break this slide. He's miles off FedEx Play-Off pace as things stand also, with none of his favourite tournaments coming up.

Thanks for the projections GPB, hoping Poulter avoids the 4-putts and rockets towards the Top 20.

Yes, Luke has no chance to be in the top 60. Four players from Wentworth passed him.  Sullivan, Frankie, Jimenez and An.

http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2015/tournamentid=2015041/leaderboard/index.html

It seems as though the European tour will be updating the Qualies hole by hole!

Will donald enter the qualifier? If notm, why not?

Has shane Lowry WD'd because he is already into the US open field?

sirbenson wrote:http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2015/tournamentid=2015041/leaderboard/index.html

It seems as though the European tour will be updating the Qualies hole by hole!

Thats great news, because it has been terrible in years past.

Luke could be qualifying in Ohio in a couple weeks.

There is no need for Lowry to play the 36 hole qualifier.  He is exempt for the US Open.

Well, Monty is in the US Open due to winning the Senior US Open in 2014 and now he's playing the PGA for a second year in a row after successfully defending his Senior PGA title.

2015 OWGR Points to date - Points per event - World Rank - Wins
(Only those with 100 or more points to date)

Pts.  -  Ev  -  PPE  -  WR  -  Wins  
275.6  -  13  -  21.2  --  2  -  2  -  Jordan Spieth
267.3  -  10  -  26.7  --  1  -  3  -  Rory McIlroy
147.8  -  10  -  14.8  -  10  -  1  -  Dustin Johnson
145.9  -  11  -  13.3  -  12  -  2  -  Jimmy Walker
142.6  -  13  -  11.0  -  13  -  1  -  J.B. Holmes
113.0  -  11  -  10.3  --  9  -  1  -  Rickie Fowler
110.9  -  14  --  7.9  -  15  -  1  -  Patrick Reed
108.6  -  12  --  9.1  --  6  -  1  -  Justin Rose
105.3  -  10  -  10.5  --  8  -  1  -  Jason Day
100.7  -  11  --  9.2  -  22  -  1  -  Bill Haas

Some projections

Kjeldson and Kiefer get to about 100-105th should they win.
RCB to inside the top 70
Ramsay to inside the top 40
Weisberger inside the top 25

Luke needs a solo third to assure a spot in the top 60 for the 2nd US Open deadline.

Bowditch to about 65th.
Randolph to about 80th
Walker to 10th at best, probably 11th.

I think that if I was RCB I'd have drilled my putter right down Tyrrell Hatton's throat. Kjeldsen, Pepperell and Hatton to fight for the 254 winning score at TOC.
And Andy Sullivan on the verge of US Open Qualifying?

kwinigolfer wrote:I think that if I was RCB I'd have drilled my putter right down Tyrrell Hatton's throat. 

What Happened?

Well, I'm guessing Hatton knew exactly where he stood relative to RCB in terms of getting the Open ticket. And pretty much Heil Hitlered pretty darn close to Rafa when he made his putt on 18 and Rafa had missed his.
Maybe wrong, but that's what it looked like.
Hatton needs to tone it down a bit methinks. Perhaps a top player in the making but might find someone to deck him before he's much older.

Just had a look at some of the other alternative avenues to Chambers Bay and St.Andrews, excluding scheduled qualifiers and tournament-specific placings:

US Open:
Top 60 in owgr as at June 15th:
As far as I can see, those within ten ranking positions of qualification are:
58th: Andy Sullivan - playing at Memorial this week.
61st: Kisner - playing Memorial
65th: Donald - not playing this week
66th: Bowditch - playing Memorial
67th: Tim Clark - currently on the injured list.
69th: Berger - playing Memorial
70th: English - playing Memorial


Open Championship:
Top five not otherwise exempt in R2D thru BMW International at end June (provided in Top 20):
12th: Aphibarnrat - playing Nordea
19th: Noren - playing Nordea

Top five in FedEx Points list not otherwise exempt (provided in Top 20):
4th: Charley Hoffman - certain to qualify
11th: Streb
16th: Bowditch
18th: Kisner
20th: Sang Moon Bae
All playing Memorial

(Makes no sense to me that R&A have their owgr cut-off so prematurely.)

kwinigolfer wrote:I think that if I was RCB I'd have drilled my putter right down Tyrrell Hatton's throat.

If I'd been Tyrrell Hatton, I'd have put a bomb under RCB - he's so slow ..... but not as slow as Max Kieffer

Time players just started playing out of turn, completing the hole and just moving on without them.

kwinigolfer wrote:Well, I'm guessing Hatton knew exactly where he stood relative to RCB in terms of getting the Open ticket. And pretty much Heil Hitlered pretty darn close to Rafa when he made his putt on 18 and Rafa had missed his.
Maybe wrong, but that's what it looked like.
Hatton needs to tone it down a bit methinks. Perhaps a top player in the making but might find someone to deck him before he's much older.

Kwini, I watched the replay.  Hatton did not do anything out of line, IMO.

LadyPutt wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:I think that if I was RCB I'd have drilled my putter right down Tyrrell Hatton's throat.

If I'd been Tyrrell Hatton, I'd have put a bomb under RCB - he's so slow ..... but not as slow as Max Kieffer

Yep - I followed Kieffer for a few holes on Friday - glacial does not do him justice.

Kisner currently #61 in owgr, on the outside looking in of US Open qualification.

Some stupidly ignorant comments earlier this week about the owgr's, combined with the assertion that he'd be unlikely to play a 36-hole US Open Qualie.

And he's started the Memorial by going -4 over his opening eight holes. Carry on at that rate, Kev, and you'll seal the deal.

I don't see that anyone playing in Malmo not already qualified can reach the Top 60 for US Open qualification.

Plenty of chances in Columbus though.

Thomas Bjorn?  He is well back but if he wins, he will get into the Top 60.  The best Grillo can do is 62nd.

The Top 60 deadline is not after this weeks tournaments, but next week's tournament.  But there doesn't look any Top 60 contenders playing in Austria.

Tee Times for the  Columbus Ohio US Open sectional qualifier.

http://www.ohiogolf.org/html/tournaments_results.asp?tid=525&r=liveTPP&org=USGA&year=2015

College standouts Maverick McNealy and Bryson DeChambeau are in this qualifier, it will be interesting to see how they do against the PGATour pros.  I suspect they won't WD like many of the PGATour pros will do after an indifferent first 18.