Dustin Johnson will he or won't he win a major(s)?

First topic message reminder :

After so many close calls to date, the question is will he eventually get over the line to get the major win(s) his talent undoubtedly deserves? He has had great chances to close the deal at at the US Open 2010, PGA 2010, The Open 2011 and now the US Open 2015.

Is this a case similar to Mickelson where once he wins his first he goes on to win many majors? Or will he be alongside the likes of Garcia, Westwood, Montgomerie etc in terms of those who have never won a major

What has happened to this board? Maybe it's just this thread but everyone suddenly seems afraid to express a firm opinion, and just because he hits it a long way people seem to think that DJ is the best player in the world who's bound to waltz round TOC in 48.

He lost the US Open to a player much shorter than him, just as he did at Whistling Straits (brain fart) and RSG (choke). He won't win at St Andrews even if he views it as a par 64. He has a major anomaly in his swing, with the hugely closed clubface at the top, and under pressure that will always make it difficult for him, even before he gets to the green and has to 2 putt from 12 feet.

Those who think he will win a major, do you think he'll win more than once?

I do, I think he has the ability to win as many majors as Mickelson

I don't know that Dustin will win five, but it's my "firm opinion!" that he'll win a couple at least - but he won't break his duck at St.Andrews, would be surprised if he won an "Open".
Much more likely to win the PGA at a course such as Whistling Straits.

Agree sirB, DJ will prob win multiples. It's the first one he's having trouble with!

Super

"Is DJ better placed than say someone like Stenson?"

Yes, bar the choking DJ would have a few majors by now. Stenson hasn't even reached the point where he has had the chance to choke.


Kwini

I agree, somewhere with simpler greens might be more suited to DJ.

DJ is just Álvaro Quirós with a bigger fan base

Quiros never even made the top 20.

So?

Quiros has made 4 cuts in 17 majors, has never come close to winning WGC's. Are you being serious comparing him to DJ....He isn't even a bit close to a player of the high caliber DJ is.

Tall, slim, long bomber was the comparison .. Quiros is the ET version of DJ - and neither is major material

I think you need to retract that comment Davie

Quiros hasn't won in 4 years, he is currently ranked 289 in the world! His major record is abysmal and has done nothing in the States.

DJ is 3rd in the world, has won every year from 2008 (except 2014). He has won 2 WGC's, played on numerous RC and PC teams, he has also a stellar major record, finish 6th or better in every major.

Quiros has no chance of winning a major....Dj has a huge chance of winning one

Is this really a discussion?

Quiros's best finish this season is a T15

Davie wrote:So?

So DJ isn't just Alvaro with a bigger fan base.

McLaren wrote:Super

"Is DJ better placed than say someone like Stenson?"

Yes, bar the choking DJ would have a few majors by now.  Stenson hasn't even reached the point where he has had the chance to choke.


Kwini

I agree, somewhere with simpler greens might be more suited to DJ.

Mac, you do know Stenson has won the Players, had a 2nd in a Major and Four 3rds and two 4ths don't you as well as the R2D and Fedex in the same year. That's up there alongside, if not better than DJ as far as I can see.

DJ has a two seconds and that's about it of much note.

Super he may have only two second places.....but DJ has come close in at least 4 majors but I agree regarding Stenson he isn't to be underestimated, apparently in the last 6 majors or so, he has hit more GIR than anyone else!

JAS wrote:What would somebody of his length be looking at as par (for them) at a windless TOC Super?

Length isn't that important JAS, nor do you have to be straight. The par 5's aren't difficult, so even someone of average length like Poulter will get up in 2. Plus even an average length player can drive (or very nearly drive, e.g a flick with a wedge) 3,6,7,9,10, 12, 15,16 and 18

The person most likely to win is whoever puts themselves in a position to get close to the pins but avoiding fairway bunkers, this could be someone who bombs it and chips well, or someone a bit shorter who can knock it close from 80-100 yards.

I wouldn't be surprised to see F.Molinari or even a MAJ do well. Being stupidly long, could suck you into deep greenside bunkers with steep faces.

sirbenson wrote:Super he may have only two second places.....but DJ has come close in at least 4 majors but I agree regarding Stenson he isn't to be underestimated, apparently in the last 6 majors or so, he has hit more GIR than anyone else!

Didn't Poulter hit more GIR than anyone in The Masters?

I'm not saying DJ isn't good, I'm saying that I see Stenson as being every bit as likely a winner of a major as DJ, given his playing record. Somehow Mac doesn't though, but he'll say anything to be contrary

super_realist wrote:

sirbenson wrote:Super he may have only two second places.....but DJ has come close in at least 4 majors but I agree regarding Stenson he isn't to be underestimated, apparently in the last 6 majors or so, he has hit more GIR than anyone else!

Didn't Poulter hit more GIR than anyone in The Masters?

I'm not saying DJ isn't good, I'm saying that I see Stenson as being every bit as likely a winner of a major as DJ, given his playing record. Somehow Mac doesn't though, but he'll say anything to be contrary

True, regarding Poulter, he may have even tweeted about it!

I'd give the edge to DJ, I feel Stenson can be a little too defensive with his insistence on not using the driver as much as he could. Yes, his drives still go a long way with the 3 wood but still if he is to win a major, he needs to be more aggressive imo!

2010 Open Championship result:
1).Oosthuizen
2).Westwood
T3).Casey, Stenson, McIlroy
6).Goosen
T7).Rock, Kaymer, O'Hair, Watney
T11).Donald, Quiros!, Overton
T14).Fowler, Lehman, Schwartzel, Garrido, Jeong, Karlsson, Garcia, Holmes, Dustin Johnson!! (Who I'm pretty sure went amf wide right on his 72nd hole.)



Stenson could win any Major any time and no-one would be surprised in the slightest. Don't think you could say that about DJ.

So you'd be more surprised if DJ won a major or am I misinterpreting that comment?


Didn't Louis win that by 6/7 shots?

No!
Yes!!
I'd just be surprised if DJ won The Open.
I'd go for South Africa vs The ROTW.

Think my earlier point was misconstrued, I was just curious as to how many Par 4's he (and for that matter the other bombers) will realistically look at as driveable given benign weather and hard ground. I took as read that a good proportion of the field will be looking at getting on the Par 5s in 2 if it's benign. As Super rightly points out there deep greenside bunkers to contend with if trying to over power the course. I see no reason why he couldn't win at TOC but of course the same goes for many. Seem to remember in 2010 McIlroy took it apart one day then it took him apart the following day although I imagine the breeze was a factor.

As for the anomaly in his swing Smithers, Major winners Bubba & Furyk aint exactly textbook plus Johnson has Butch to help keep such anomalies under control.

Having said all that if McIlroy & Spieth turn up with something approaching their A game the rest will be scrapping for 3rd. Do we really have to wait 3 weeks for it to unfold??

JAS, easily drivable for the pro's, even off the Open tees are, 9,10,12 and 18, the others I mention are also easy meat for putting off the green or chip/run. Expect most players to be 95% GIR in no wind or even light winds. It will in effect come down to who puts the ball closest to the pin and putting like no other tournament.

Everyone always makes a big deal of 9C not being in a bunker for 4 rounds. It's not a feat that is all that commendable. It's easy to stay out of the bunkers there.

JAS wrote:

As for the anomaly in his swing Smithers, Major winners Bubba & Furyk aint exactly textbook plus Johnson has Butch to help keep such anomalies under control.

Having said all that if McIlroy & Spieth turn up with something approaching their A game the rest will be scrapping for 3rd. Do we really have to wait 3 weeks for it to unfold??

Their swings may be unorthodox but they're able to repeat them under pressure. DJ has a conventional swing with a 'foible' that simultaneously allows him to gain extra speed & length but also means it can break down resulting in either a push or a snap hook. Big difference.

Completely agree about nos. 1&2 though.

super_realist wrote:JAS, easily drivable for the pro's, even off the Open tees are, 9,10,12 and 18, the others I mention are also easy meat for putting off the green or chip/run. Expect most players to be 95% GIR in no wind or even light winds. It will in effect come down to who puts the ball closest to the pin and putting like no other tournament.

Everyone always makes a big deal of 9C not being in a bunker for 4 rounds. It's not a feat that is all that commendable. It's easy to stay out of the bunkers there.

Your views on TOC and Mr Chins are pretty well known, so the view of a bunkerless tournament not being that commendable isn't perhaps such a huge surprise. However (and I ask as I don't know) how many times does a bunkerless tournament (all 4 rounds) happen for a player at TOC? I accept that the media will probably have hyped it too, but how many others did it that year (or in recent TOC opens) and where did they finish?

I'm not sure, but I suspect you are right that more than just 9C went round without entering a bunker. Even from a personal level a bunker (on any course, not just TOC) is something I'm very seldom in.

On the other hand, I'll bet there are plenty tournament wins where the winner has been in several bunkers.

Fowler went round TOC in 2010 without going in a bunker. But he shot 79 one day to rule him out.
Link here

With an up and down success rate of over 85% and never going in bunkers I think on reflection you should be aiming for more than a club championship.  Have you ever thought about enter the Amateur, especially if it is played over TOC?

Mac, I adjusted my scrambling to about 70-75%, which is still quite good, but sadly I've been tending to play to my handicap on most occassions this year, rather than be under it.

THe level for Amateur competition is Amateur in name only. THe Links Trophy for instance, played over TOC/New has a cut off of about +2.7. They are full time guys.

Super

What is your handicap at the moment? It must be pretty low given your recent good form.

SmithersJones wrote:

JAS wrote:

As for the anomaly in his swing Smithers, Major winners Bubba & Furyk aint exactly textbook plus Johnson has Butch to help keep such anomalies under control.

Having said all that if McIlroy & Spieth turn up with something approaching their A game the rest will be scrapping for 3rd. Do we really have to wait 3 weeks for it to unfold??

Their swings may be unorthodox but they're able to repeat them under pressure. DJ has a conventional swing with a 'foible' that simultaneously allows him to gain extra speed & length but also means it can break down resulting in either a push or a snap hook. Big difference.

Completely agree about nos. 1&2 though.

Not sure I agree re. the DJ swing. His speed/length doesn't come from his closed position at the top and I'm not sure I see how that leads to the RSG block, for example. Certainly, it has nothing to do with missing putts or not knowing if some sandy rubbish is decreed to be a bunker or not. A good friend who was a few 10s of yards away when he went OB at RSG swears it sounded like there was some hosel in there, even if it wasn't an out-and-out shank.

2 Mac, but like I say, I'm just making buffer, with the occasional cut. The weather has been very windy, so even though I'm in form, it's hard to score in conditions like that.
Also, I've been playing a lot of Matchplay, so obviously no cuts for that.

I know TOC is currently closed so I am not sure when the last time you played it was, but is there a finer way to spend time playing golf than having a close match over TOC? It makes you realise why golf originally became popular.

2 is pretty good, what would you need to improve to get down to scratch or better?


Navy

I agree with you about his wrist position at the top, he presumably get everything back on track on the way down or he wouldn't be very good at golf.

Mac, I played TOC the week before it shut, to be fair to TOC, it is probably a better course for Matchplay than it is for Strokeplay as a lot of holes are going to be won with birdie, you have to go for the greens that can be driven, so in that sense, is a better course for that type of golf.

My main reason I haven't got down any further is missing greens. I've been thinking back over my rounds (as I no longer keep the spreadsheet) and most of my misses are right of the green, so although my short game gets me out of trouble, I'm saving par rather than putting for birdie. I do feel there's a good 3-4 under in a medal just waiting (had a -2 last week with a double bogey in there), which would get me down to 1.

Got a few things to try and going to have a chat with the pro, see if he notices anything that could be improved. Possible my grip is a little weak.

I'm not sure DJ's wrist position is such a big deal- if it was, Butch would have sorted it out right? I think he'd be a great bet for Whistling Straits.

Clearly DJ does get it back on track on the way down most of the time, but on the odd occasion he can either over-correct, leaving the clubface open or square to an in-to-out path and causing a push, or under-correct leading to a snap-hook. And the same reaction to pressure can easily also cause yipped puts or brain farts.

But all players get it wrong on the way down every now and again. How would we be able to determine if it is DJ's wrist position at the top that causes his mishits?

I don't wish to draw parallels between DJ and my own, pathetic swing but I used to be very closed at the top and had lessons wherein those potential implications of that fault were mentioned, and at the time it also chimed with my experience. We've seen the push under pressure at RSG and Pebble, and I wouldn't mind betting that when he's not playing well and not in contention it's often because of a hook.

Super, if your grip wasn't quite right and a change of position would make it 'better', having known a few people who have tried to make that sort of change and found it too uncomfortable (I think most grip changes will feel weird for some time) before reverting back, would you go for such a fundamental change? With the risk that you might get worse before better?

I can't recall how old you are but it's the sort of thing you hear people saying they wouldn't change 'at this point' for the danger of getting worse and not enjoying the game any longer.

I changed my grip about 18 months ago and it made a massive improvement to my game. I went from 17 to 10 in a little over a year from not much more than a grip change. But then, I'm not playing off 2

monty junior wrote:Without doubt, though i feel he was easily the best player during the US open but kind of just frittered it away.

Really? Oosthuizen was -11 for rounds 2-4... He was playing a different course to the others after round 1. If anyone ia gutted to miss out on a win, it must be him. A terrible +5 in round 1 would have been good enough to rewrite history .

Another opportunity for Dustin. Hope he gets it done this time and then goes forth and multiplies his Major haul!

BoB Bubka was convinced yesterday, DJ will find some way to losing this.....

SetupDeterminesTheMotion wrote:BoB Bubka was convinced yesterday, DJ will find some way to losing this.....

Remind me next time to take all my betting tips from BoB Bubka.

Dustin really can't blame anyone but himself this week. The course was ripe for the plucking yesterday and he failed to capitalise. Very disappointing.

This week?

DJ is finally off the mark!

still waiting on Quiroz to break his duck!

Interesting re-read :-p

Apart from Davie, who were the other naysayers?