PGA Tour: How Good Can Dustin Johnson Be?: Notes from the Ballwasher

1).Dustin wins again and stretches his lead at the top of the World Rankings; over the past few weeks, the Top 6 in the rankings (DJ, Day, Rory, Matsuyama, Spieth, Stenson) have separated themselves by a distance from #7, and now Dustin has separated himself from the next five by about the same amount. Does this reflect his supremacy or is the impact of his success, combined with Day & McIlroy being laid low, a little exaggerated?
Probably a bit of both, so let's have a closer look at just what DJ has been up to, how he's separated himself from "the field".

2).Johnson was playing the 18th, clinging to a one-stroke lead, when he produced what he called his best shot of the tournament from a fairway bunker to the middle of the green, 18ft from the hole. So much for the assertion in these notes a fortnight ago that he hasn't won many close finishes. (And he has won all three of his transcendantly important Ryder Cup singles matches.)
Now he's won four World Golf Championships, all in the last four years. The WGC win league table now looks like this:
18: Woods
4: Johnson
3: Ogilvy
2: Clarke, Day, Els, Mahan, McIlroy, Mickelson, Poulter, Scott.

3).Perhaps we should have seen this coming, after all the greens were poa annua grass (which I for one wasn't aware of beforehand). For the most part, the Tour only sees poa annua at Torrey Pines, Riviera and Pebble Beach, and look at who was leading the field:
1st: Johnson, winner also at Pebble Beach (twice) and a fortnight ago at Riviera.
T3: Rahm, winner at Torrey Pines.
T5: Pieters, winner of NCAA Championship @ Riviera, and 2nd there two weeks ago.
T7: Snedeker, winner twice at Pebble, twice at Torrey Pines.
T7: Mickelson, winner 4 times at Pebble Beach, twice at Riviera and 3 times at Torrey Pines.
There's a pattern there somewhere!

BUT: In Mexico, Johnson missed 16 putts during the week from inside ten feet - which tied the most on Tour in the last ten years.

4).Now that we've seen coverage of the Chapultepec course for four rounds, should we have expected some of the Tour's "navigators" to have done better, or was it perfectly reasonable to expect the "bombers" to have their way with it? Among the Top Ten finishers, only Snedeker could be said to be an average length hitter. And that suggests Johnson, in particular, was "nails" with his irons as well as his usual length - such as a 300+-yard 2-iron.

5).So what will Dustin do now? Can't fancy him for the Match-Play, but he must be in the top three contenders at Augusta where he's quietly finished 6th and 4th the past two years. Imagine he'll be quiet after that until Erin Hills and the US Open. There's another course most of us don't know, and nor do most of the pros. That didn't bother DJ at Chambers Bay so can quite easily see him as first among equals for the US Open.
Then his schedule will start to get interesting:
Birkdale: Didn't play in 2008, but then nor did most in the field. 15th or better in 5 of his last 7 Opens.
Glen Abbey: Wayne Gretzky's home tournament, and Johnson was T2 last year.
Bridgestone: Won last year.
PGA Championship at Quail Hollow: This is almost a home game, having grown up 90 miles south. Doesn't have a good record there, but was 36-hole leader in 2010.
FedEx Play-Offs: He has one Barclays and 2 x Beemers under his belt so he'll presumably be motivated to excel. Again.

Hopefully Paulina's pregnancy won't get too much in his way and we'll see just how good Dustin Johnson can be.

6).It seems the Chapultepec golf course received rave reviews, but it's just the sort of somewhat "fiddly" course that many Tour pros normally avoid. The scores seemed to improve, with notable exceptions of course, as the week went on and one would expect lower scores next time around. But a terrific venue regardless.
For spectators at least, Firestone is a boring course for the Bridgestone - how would you reconfigure the dates and venues for the three WGC's (given that the HSBC will stay in the Far East)? I'd still like to see Argentina, Australia and South Africa brought into the mix, perhaps on a rotational basis. And then there's Europe!

7).The Tour needs to do something with the schedule in the pre-Masters run-up. Doug Ferguson describes the predicament here:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/80d7e77abf0c44139cc9c78df78bda81/4-players-could-miss-match-play-detour-masters

Ironically this could suit non-Tour members as they will be under no pressure to play tournaments they don't feel obligated to (e.g. homage to Arnie, etc).
Gawd only knows what the landscape would look like if they re-inserted The Players into March - perhaps they'd go from Riviera to Mexico, then Honda, Valspar, Bay Hill, TPC, Houston, Augusta and shunt the Match Play back to May. 'Course, the calendar is partly responsible with The Masters coming early this year.

8).Fine finishes for Fleetwood and Fisher, great to see Rory eking out a decent result on his return to action, and Hatton gardening out another Top Ten. Fisher is in the Match Play now and a good result will get him a Billy Payne invitation. I always looked at Fish as a terrific ball-striker but with a very iffy short game, especially on Bermuda greens, but his putting was terrific in Mexico. And who knows what to make of Fleetwood's resurgence - in fine form these past six months after 18 months in the doldrums (barely in the owgr Top 200 last summer). How good can Tommy be??!!

9).The Valspar Championship, outside Tampa on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, has a rotten date but looks a wonderful course, so demanding that it perennially ranks among the ten most difficult to par on Tour, and last year yielded the second fewest birdies. Schwartzel is the defending champion and he certainly is overdue for a good tournament.
Stenson has finished in the top 12 the past two years on a course that usually favours "ball strikers", and I fancy Dufner and Ryan Moore for each way interest.
A year ago, I recommended investing in Dufner and DeLaet, doubling up until they paid out. Dufner won the next week, at the Career Builder, while you'd've gone broke following DeLaet - but he has a good Valspar record and seems to be chipping and putting much better. And we're slowly easing in to the Charlie Hoffman season.

10).Luke Donald has won here, and he's joined in this week's field by Kjeldsen who needs a good finish to reach the Match Play. Knox is playing after two terrible weeks, and so is McDowell who should be suited by the course, especially after playing well at "Honda".
Ian Poulter is back and he REALLY needs a good result. It seems a long time ago now that he threw his "just me and Tiger" stink bomb. But you never know, a top few finishes and he might be retorting to all and sundry that it'll be "just me and Dustin".

Kwini - its trite to say it, but I reckon DJ can be as good as he wants. I'm very impressed with everything he seemed to have early in his career i.e. Bombing, but the improvement in his wedge play over last 18 months has been superb. Putting has frequently been good, but maybe he is of the streaky variety? Cool head in a crisis, which also seems different. He's always been laid back, but earlier had a tendency to blow up, irrespective of how calm he might have looked. Wonder if it helps have an exceptional sportsman as f-I-l?

Fisher has been having putting lessons from Ken Brown, who it was reported approached Fisher having "spotted something." I recall similar impact he achieved playing with Padraig in Ryder Cup, and maybe he is one who needs that sort of input every now and again.

On holiday some years ago at Crystal River further north from Tampa, and travelled down on an invite to play at Innisbrook. Lashed down all the time we were there and never got out! Hope they have good weather this week.

Trite but probably true about DJ. But he still managed to keep his cool long enough to win every year. Sometimes talent overcomes weaknesses, but am sure Wayne helps. And his talent was absolutely supreme, revolutionised a sport and rewrote the record books.

My favourite DJ moment was following him early in his career with the proverbial three men and a dog; Par-4, about 440 yards, dog-leg right, elbow about 260 off the tee. 3-wood for most of them, or a driver with a fade. DJ drives, marshalls behind the tee box frantically wave far right; marshalls and ShotLink guys on the course couldn't find his ball in the woods, DJ walks up the fairway about 80 yards from the green where he'd blown the ball over everything, simple pitch onto the green.

Good that Fish is getting help; thought he was inclined to get very down on his putting, even when his long-game was like a clinic.

Forecast for the early rounds looks fine, possibly showers being blown in on Sunday.

Mentioned that last year's winner Schwartzel needs a good result or a two; the Tour has grouped him with Stenson and Bubba Watson, and Bubba also is off to a very slow start, high time for Kings Charl & Bubba to start punching their weight.

Bryson DeChambeau in the field again. Another one with a dreadful start to his season; is he going to be a top player, or just golfing's version of the mad professor?

See Note 7). above:
The Golf Channel is reporting that only 10 of the top 25 in the owgr's are planning to show up for next week's Arnold Palmer Invitational. Not as dismal as the Dallas turn out following Byron Nelson's death, but pretty disappointing for all who hold Palmer's legacy dear.
But golf Pros are exactly that, Pros, and will go where the opportunity shines brightest for them. They can't be expected to play everywhere after all, and the Tour must have sen this coming.
And presumably it'll leave the chance for Sam Saunders to get an invite.

Regarding DJ, I think he has the potential to win 5/6 majors and win 40 times similar to Phil Mickelson's career. His wedge has improved a huge amount and the scary thing is he still has room for improvement with his putting imo!

I'm seeing Men's golf in the next few years as being a bit like how WTA rankings were for a while. Lot's of players taking over the #1 for a short spell and then going through various stages of form.

I think with 9C we got used to sustained brilliance, but I don't think that's generally how sport works.

So I expect DJ to be in and around the top 5 for a long time, but I don't see any sustained period of dominance from him or anyone.

How Good Can Dustin Johnson Be?

I don't think he will ever be any better than he is now, which is fine because he should have had about 4 majors by now.

I agree with sirb that he should still get to this mark but I don't see him or anybody else getting to 40 PGAT wins. Even Spieth and Rory seem destined to have as many "off" years as ones where they win 3 or 4 times, and this coupled with the depth of today's fields I predict 25 career PGAT wins will be a very rare occurrence from now on.

super_realist wrote:
I think with 9C we got used to sustained brilliance, but I don't think that's generally how sport works.

Super says something positive about Tiger! Shocker!

I can hardly deny Lumbago was good in his prime can I?

Fortunately he's finished now and I think we'll see his retirement this year, possibly post-masters.

I think the major win last year was a watershed moment for DJ. He could / should have had a few already - he's certainly played well enough but probably got in his own way. I think Rory and Jay Day are better all round players when they're on form, but DJ should go on to win another 3 or 4 majors no problem.

Although - the ability to drive the green on a par 4 with an iron is ridiculous!!!

Didnt some one call DJ an american Alvaro Quiros once on this board?

He is clearly a very good player, I am in agreement that Rory is probably better, but only when he gets it all going and plays above his usual very high level. Jason Day, i'm unsure, will he be continually good or just had a very good purple patch.

He probably was an American Quiros at the time it was said. His driving accuracy was terrible, despite being long and there were lots of time he blew up in tournaments because if this.

He's improved massively following his "absence"

I'm not sure about the longevity of Day or Spieth, they both look like long streaky players to me.

Early (6.50 a.m.) start tomorrow at Innisbrook. Unusual course configuration for a Par-71: Five Par-3's, Four Par-5's, Nine Par 4's.

Almost every hole played over par last year and the 16th, 17th & 18th holes represent one of the most difficult finishes of the year.


PS: I wish the Spanish Quiros would get back to his best . . . . . . .

beninho wrote:Jason Day, i'm unsure, will he be continually good or just had a very good purple patch.

I think when fit, Day will continue to be great. But the way he lashes at it, combined with Darren Anderton sick note tendencies, mean his career could degenerate into a Tigereque series of attempted come backs from injury.

Kwini, in the other thread I explained why Top Ten in Mexico doesn't get you into the next Tour event.

However, Hatton's T4 at Honda should have got him into Valspar this week.

Apparently Hatton didn't want it.

Thanks GPB; Yup, I caught it on the other thread.
You can't blame Hatton with such a heavy schedule ahead of him, but perhaps a little surprising nevertheless.

I think the Florida/Mexico/Florida/Florida/MatchPlay run of events has to be looked at before next year's schedule is finalised.

EDIT: What do you think of Stenson's proposal for the MatchPlay: 36 holes of Stroke Play followed by knock out Match Play for the Top 32 or 16?

Wouldn't 2 rounds of strokeplay and a top 32 matchplay make it even longer?

Yeah, I think he's really hoping for 16!

Anyway, this round-robin idea doesn't seem universally popular and some top guys are voting with their feet. Not good.
Adam Scott taking his pregnant wife to Australia to avoid the Zika Virus.

Re: Stenson and Match Play

You can't please everyone. Some players hated the One N Done format.

IMO, Match Play makes for a terrible format for professional golf in an individual format. The worst days are the final two rounds.

IIRC, Mrs Scott never left Australia. He came to US to play 3 tourneys, went back this week and will return to USA to play Houston and Augusta. I think Mrs Scott is staying in Australia until the baby is delivered.

=========

Apparently Pelley has put his foot down about WGC not following LA. Next year, Perth Super 6 and Los Angeles are conflicting events, and Pelley doesn't want his players to have to travel from Aus to Mexico City.

Calling BS on Pelley.

I think one EuroT Member played Perth that played Mexico. Oosthuizen. Tanihara from Japan also played both plus maybe couple Aus players.

And Pelley has no issue making his players travel from Morocco to China next month in back to back tournaments. Nor does he have a problem with making his players go from Valderrama to HSBC this fall.

Seems to me Pelley is still butt-hurt from the B-Stone/French Open conflict from last year

No idea about Fog on the Tyne this morning, but it looks like an hour's worth of fog beside the (Tampa) Bay; all morning wave tee-times delayed.


GPB,
Didn't realise Mrs Adam was in Oz, had read a piece that didn't state that.

Poor first rounds in India from travellers Rafa and Lahiri, not much better from Hend.

The Scott's North American home base is in the Bahamas and Zika is prevalent there, that is why she has stayed in Australia.

Yes, I know that!

Off and running at the Valspar, the first hole the easiest (reachable Par-5) and early starters painting red on their scorecards.

Power-ful start from Seamus - has HAS(!) to keep this up to improve his "reshuffle" status - a revelation how he's played in his first few Tour months, long may it continue.

Stenson off to a nice start too.

Cheers Kwini great analysis as per usual! DJ is certainly in the upper echelon of talent. The only thing I'd say is McIlroy wasn't "match" fit, Spieth didn't play as well as I expected, thought he was really suited to that course. Not the longest with poa annua greens, not to be though. No Day also. Impressive from DJ, but we're not into the most competitive part of the season yet. It wasn't long ago Matsuyama was being touted as nailed on for Augusta.... It's hotting up nicely...

Good stuff from Shay today!

Cheers kwin.

Re 3) Chambers Bay was also poa annua? A tournament DJ should've won.

Does anyone realistically think Tiger will play the Masters?

Sir - Nope. Also, I would be surprised if he played the rest of the year.

He's toast.

The much maligned single swing plane DeChambeau on a bit of a roll.

sirbenson wrote:Does anyone realistically think Tiger will play the Masters?

Realistically I doubt we will see him tee it up in a competitive capacity again.

Better from Poulter.

sirbenson wrote:Does anyone realistically think Tiger will play the Masters?

Does anyone want him to? He hasn't been remotely competitive for 3 and a half years. As someone who never liked him it was fun watching him shoot 80 for a while but that's lost its novelty now. He'll just be a distraction if he does play.

He will tee it up again at some point though. The urge to play again runs too deep, look at Seve or Olazabal. At least retired cricketers and footballers get to take up golf...

Wow, No posts in nearly 24 hours?

Where is everyone?

for the second full field event in a row, the Cut was exactly 70 players, however this week, Sean O'Hair withdraws this morning because of his neck.

If he WD before the cut was made, 10 more players would have made the cut.

Beef is working for Sky tonight, I wonder why he hasn't played in a while! Strange scheduling

sirb,
re: Beef: I think he'd like to play, but his "reshuffle" number is too low to get into these fields. Hope he'll be in Puerto Rico in 10 days' time.

Hey guys, US clocks moved forward today, just four hours' difference until GB&I changes too.

Very disappointing from Poulter on Saturday, big day today for Soren Kjeldsen, his sort of course you'd think. And important for Seamus Power as well.

Team GB&I really helping Bay Hill with its "strength of field" next week: Casey, Fitz, Fleetwood, Hatton, etc as most galacticos stay away.

Note to those averse to travelling:
Hendry & Rafa both played Mexico last week; Hendry won this week in NZ, Rafa a Top Five in India. Bon voyage.

Off and running at The Valspar, should be a quiet morning with the chance of a shower this afternoon. Conditions ripe for low scores - Hadwin getting married in a fortnight so a win today would:
1).Be a nice wedding present.
2).Get him into the owgr Top 50 . . . . . . .
3). . . . . just in time for the MatchPlay which he wouldn't compete in because of his aforementioned nuptials.

GPB... Clarification on O'Hair WD and the cut line. I didn't want to say anything until I had confirmation, but his WD did not affect the cutline.

The rule is the cut is determined as 70 and ties. So when O'Hair posted by signing his scorecard the round counted towards cut purposes regardless of when he WD's after.

So the only way O'Hair could have affected the cut was to not turn in a card for round 2. Course no player who completed R2 inside the cut would ever do that because players who WD or DQ after the cut recieve unofficial last place money.

Kwini... If Hadwin were to win today... It would also postpone or relocate his honeymoon which is scheduled for Masters week...

robo,
Ya mean the Augusta Holiday Inn won't do it?


I know you've been spotlighting Gavin Green's progress the past year or so; a really good result in India today for him, he's making very steady progress.

Poulter's putter standing between him and a really good round. This'll be another disappointing result and time is running out for Poults's PGA Tour career. For the time being anyway.
He'll need to make about $180K in the four starts he has remaining on his "medical" - perhaps something slightly less of a reach when converted to FedEx pts.

McDool out of hibernation. Tempoarily or does he have a good round up his sleeve? Promising start regardless.

If he wins today, Adam Hadwin would become the 14th Canadian to win on the PGATour.

I'll start with the low hanging fruit

1. Mike Weir (8 wins including the Masters)
2. Mackenzie Hughes (1)
3. Stephen Ames (4) born in Trinidad-Tobago
4. NIck Taylor (1)
5. George Knudson (8)

Then the more obscure Canadians

6. Pat Fletcher (1 win The Canadian Open)
7. Richard Zokol (1)
8. Dan Halldorson (1)
9. Al Balding (4)
10. Dave Barr (2)
11. Al Johnston (1) Born in Scotland
12. Ian Leggett (1)
13. Stan Leonard (3)

Kwini... Yep... Nice career pace for Green so far. Looks like he has potential of a decent pro career. You just never know with guys like him until they get out there and see if they continue to improve.

Some good names there GPB; I think Disco Dick was the first player to practice on a Pro putting green whilst wearing headphones.

And: Whatever happened to Ian Leggatt?
I think Blue and Grumpy might be interested to know that Pat Fletcher was born in Clacton!

More strength in depth from North of the Border these days, and a good thing too!!


Poults in with a 60 (EDIT thanks to GPB, Poults with a soixante neuf, my mistake) which could so easily have been a little better.
Promising, and hopefully he'll advance as beaten horses slip back.

If Stenson could putt his way out of a paper bag, it's hard to imagine what his career could have been... Oh well...

Good result for Power but he needs more where that came from - big chance to get some points on the board in two weeks' time in Puerto Rico. Poulter played well there last year, so both have an opportunity to do themselves some good.

Well this just got really interesting... Not a good time for a swim from Hadwin

kwinigolfer wrote:
Poults in with a 60 which could so easily have been a little better.
Promising, and hopefully he'll advance as beaten horses slip back.

Actually he shot 69 and finished with a 8-way T41.

Worth 11.875 FEX pts....now has about 87 FEX towards the needed 218 FEX to regain status.  Played 6 of his 10 events.

As a percentage, Poulter is closer in getting his card back in money.

T41 is worth about $21500, he now has about $170k of the $348k needed to retain his tour card.

He is playing next week, and it is a High dollar tournament.

Adam can stop living a lie.

Thanks for pointing out my typo, GPB.

Had Win should always beat Cant Lay.

Adam Hadwin seemed to get more pleasure out of his win than Cantlay would ever be capable of - probably the first Tour winner ever to be born in Moose Jaw.

Great win for Hadwin ... but talk about coming out of nowhere for Cantlay. Suspect we have not seen the last of either.

Cantlay had a tie for the course record at Hartford until Furyk 58'd him.

Sr,
What's the story w/SO'H?

Get yr shovel ready.

Had supper w/Nini on Friday; no sign of Whitey Ford.

NCAA-ish curling at the UCC this weekend.