If Heyneke Meyer was smart.

We all know the squad Heyneke Meyer has selected for the world cup, we are all aware of the risks he is taking with the inclusion of Fourie du Preez, Jean de Villiers, Morne Steyn, JP Pietersen, Willem Alberts and Victor Matfield.


These players have all been to world cups, have experience and are seen by Meyer as his bankers for this world cup.

The biggest problem the boks had in the past twelve months was the inconsistency in selections and combinations. It has disrupted the Springboks and the results have been dire.

What Meyer needs to do is manage his "bankers" or senior players and use them sparingly only when necessary, and use the younger, fitter and more exciting players as his starting team.

There are a few reasons why I suggest that, firstly they need consistency in selection, they need to build cohesion and understanding, and they need game time together.

You can only build trust amongst a group of players if they have gone through the mill enough times, and South Africa has 4 matches in the pool stage, four matches where they need to improve cohesion, synergy and understanding, only hen can they play themselves into form.

My starting 15 will be

1. Beast Mtwarira
2. Bismarck du Plesis
3. Jannie du Plessis
4. Eben Etzebeth
5. Lood de Jager
6. Frans Louw
7. Schalk Burger
8. Duane Vermeulen
9. RUan Pienaar
10. Handre Pollard
11. Bryan Habana
12. Damien de ALlende
13. Jesse Kriel
14. WIllie le Roux
15. Patrick LAmbie

bench.

Trevor Nyakane
Schak Brits
Frans Malherbe
Pieter Steph du Toit
Willem Alberts/VIctor
Fourie du Preez
Jean de Villiers
JP Pietersen

The older players need protection, and they should only be used if necessary, and only in the last quarter to close out the match, otherwise give the staring 15 as much game time as possible.

The front row picks itself, it has proven once again that when they are in the mood to play rugby, they are still our best front row combination.

Lood de Jager and Eben Etzebeth are both hardworking monsters in defence and love carrying the ball up.

Burger may not have his physicality of 4 years ago, but he is the perfect link man for South Africa, Vermeulen needs no introduction and Louw has shown he knows how to play English conditions.

Pienaar is not my favourite, but he has proven to be reliable, if somewhat slow and deliberate.

Pollard needs game time in Europe, we can criticise all we want about him not being used to conditions in Europe, so then give him full control. That is the only way he is going to learn.

De Allende and Kriel need game time to work on their defensive organisation and communication, two test isn't going to cut it come the knock out rounds. AS for their attack, just ask Conrad Smith and Ma'a Nonu.

Willie le Roux is a must as he brings the spark and being outside Jesse Kriel will provide plenty of game play between them, Lambie is solid and back up for Pollard, and Habana will hopefully show some hunger

I actually feel that SA have a good balance in their squad myself. I guess i dont watch them as much as i should but i can see them being a real force in this RWC.

What has happened to Jan Serfontein? He was the next big thing about a year ago.

De Allende came along

I am sure Serfontein will be back when de Villiers retires, but truth be told we have some srious contenders for the 12 jersey at the moment.

Biltong wrote:De Allende came along

Didn't he primarily play at outside centre and wing at first? He has looked very good at 12.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:

Biltong wrote:De Allende came along

Didn't he primarily play at outside centre and wing at first? He has looked very good at 12.

he was basically playing out of position last year to accommodate Jean de Villiers at 12 for the Stormers, but this year got the oportunity to prove himself in his preferred position and did so with aplomb.

Whats the deal with Frans Steyn these days?

Not sure, last I heard his brother passed away in a tragic incident so he left the squad, nobody knows whether he is on standby as he had contractual desputes with SARU last year.

Not much information available on whther he is actually available or not

May be If Meyer had picked Players that play in South Africa, and not players that are playing over seas.

Maybe there would not be this trouble with the SA management.

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/rugby-union

Henry talks about the return of Jon Smit from injury (patella) at 1:05….thought he retired in 2011…..am i missing something?

Might be an old article, John Smit runs Sharks rugby now.

Biltong wrote:Might be an old article, John Smit runs Sharks rugby now.

dont think it is though…its the guardians coverage of the RWC 2015, south africa preview?!! Has henry finally lost it?

Biltong wrote:

Rory_Gallagher wrote:

Biltong wrote:De Allende came along

Didn't he primarily play at outside centre and wing at first? He has looked very good at 12.

he was basically playing out of position last year to accommodate Jean de Villiers at 12 for the Stormers, but this year got the oportunity to prove himself in his preferred position and did so with aplomb.

He looks excellent, I just assumed he wasn't a natural 12 for some reason and was playing there due to injuries.

Your thinking is good BUT,we all know Matfield will be at 5,Fourie DuPreez and Morne Steyn
will be in the big matches.RWC`s are won by Defence and penalties/drop goals grind them
down upfront and milk penalties.
It`s SA`s to lose they have the perfect RWC formula side,the RC charade is over no ones
fooled.The injured like Lazarus have risen from the grave or the camp they`ve been hidden
in.

SA and Australia are the sides to watch.

Apart from NZ, SA are the only side with players with first hand experience of winning a RWC - plus the fact that so many players have experience of NH club rugby will help them a lot I think.

They have a record at twickenham only matched by the ABs in recent years so will have no fears of playing there.

For the big games, the QF, the SF I'd play De Villiers and Lambie.

Right about the old timers, De Villiers should play 1 tune up game for 40 mins in the pool, Scotland and then be thrown in an ice bucket for 1 week before the KO matches. Play De Allende with De Villiers too.

Samoa should be avoided at all costs for the oldies.

Samoa match should be this

Nyakane
Brits
Malherbe
Etzebeth
De Jager
Du Toit
Kolisi
Vermeulen
Pienaar
Steyn
Mvovo
De Allende
Kriel
Pietersen
Kirchner

The problem I see is that 9 players are over 30 in Meyers first XV.

Mtawarira, Bissie, Jannie, Matfield, Burger, Louw, Du Preez, Habana, De Villiers.

Three are 24 or under (Etzebeth, Lambie, De Allende)

and only 1 is of prime age (25-28)... Le Roux.

For instance in 2003, England had 7 players in their final XV in this prime category.

I think prime very much depends on experience as well

Etzebeth and a few others may be young, put they play a high quality game

Biltong wrote:I think prime very much depends on experience as well

Etzebeth and a few others may be young, put they play a high quality game

But he does sometimes lose his head, get into stupid physical battles... he is afterall an Etzebeth.

fa0019 wrote:

Biltong wrote:I think prime very much depends on experience as well

Etzebeth and a few others may be young, put they play a high quality game

But he does sometimes lose his head, get into stupid physical battles... he is afterall an Etzebeth.

Yeah, but it doesn't concern me, when last was Etzebeth in trouble?

Biltong wrote:

fa0019 wrote:

Biltong wrote:I think prime very much depends on experience as well

Etzebeth and a few others may be young, put they play a high quality game

But he does sometimes lose his head, get into stupid physical battles... he is afterall an Etzebeth.

Yeah, but it doesn't concern me, when last was Etzebeth in trouble?

always has a needle though, its not about getting in trouble its about him simply trying to get one over in one player he tends to get into a vendetta with.

It takes his mind off the game and his role.

Etzebeth should be dominating matches, the talent is huge but we haven't seen the strides we would have expected him to take as of yet. This has to be it when he enters into the Thorn, Bakkies, Johnson category if not maybe we have to reassess our opinions of him.

Etzebeth has been in control of his temper all season..it's the Du Plessis brothers that I worry will do something stupid (but on the other hand, when they're on form, there's no stopping them)

That's bismarcks role though. He plays the margins on the floor.

I think if you threw him the captaincy though you'd see a more controlled bissie.
Play De Villiers off the bench until the QF, throw Bissie the armband.

Will never happen, De Villiers captain, Burger, vice.

Must irk every NT fan.... priceless.

fa0019 wrote:That's bismarcks role though. He plays the margins on the floor.

I think if you threw him the captaincy though you'd see a more controlled bissie.
Play De Villiers off the bench until the QF, throw Bissie the armband.

Will never happen, De Villiers captain, Burger, vice.

Must irk every NT fan.... priceless.

I'm not talking about the margins on the floors I'm talking about him kicking people in the face!..And he played better for the Sharks when he wasn't the captain...

Mr Fishpaste wrote:

fa0019 wrote:That's bismarcks role though. He plays the margins on the floor.

I think if you threw him the captaincy though you'd see a more controlled bissie.
Play De Villiers off the bench until the QF, throw Bissie the armband.

Will never happen, De Villiers captain, Burger, vice.

Must irk every NT fan.... priceless.

I'm not talking about the margins on the floors I'm talking about him kicking people in the face!..And he played better for the Sharks when he wasn't the captain...

My only concern with the current Captain and vice is whether they are the best players in their position? Its very debatable.

Bissie is head and shoulders the only one of the senior team bar Habana who are solid no question first team picks.

fa0019 wrote:

Mr Fishpaste wrote:

fa0019 wrote:That's bismarcks role though. He plays the margins on the floor.

I think if you threw him the captaincy though you'd see a more controlled bissie.
Play De Villiers off the bench until the QF, throw Bissie the armband.

Will never happen, De Villiers captain, Burger, vice.

Must irk every NT fan.... priceless.

I'm not talking about the margins on the floors I'm talking about him kicking people in the face!..And he played better for the Sharks when he wasn't the captain...

My only concern with the current Captain and vice is whether they are the best players in their position? Its very debatable.

Bissie is head and shoulders the only one of the senior team bar Habana who are solid no question first team picks.

No they are not, and anyone who is objective will tell you that.

Vic is still good at line out, but a passenger in any other facet of the game. The sad thing is Meyer knows it.

Jean should have pulled himself from the squad, he knows it, and everyone else knows it, De Allende has been THE form centre in the SH this year.

Fourie du Preez is crocked, that domes from a source within the Bok camp, he is taped, creaking and I doubt we will see much of him until the play offs, and even then I doubt he will last one match.

Its the John Smit scenario all over again. Captain takes the place of someone better... and the rest of the squad knows it. It lowers morale and an idea that the team are made out of the most deserving 15.

Yea, the situation at 9 is probably the most critical for the Boks. If De Villiers or Matfield don't stay the course, there is quality to fill their places. if Du Preez gets (stays?) injured the third choice 9 has absolutely no game time at Int. level. A very, very risky strategy from Meyer.

seldom do you get a 3rd choice with great experience anyhow.. usually a young buck with <10 caps.

However Paige is 26 with only 1 season of SR behind him. Its taken him that long to make the grade.

Matfield can be justified, only just...but I agree with Biltong: Jean dV is off the pace and his inclusion breaks up an exciting partnership between De Allende and Kriel; Du Preez hasn't played in ages and none of the no.10s have much experience with him....for my money they should give the captaincy to Burger who's experienced (and has been captain at WP) and is playing well.

Mr Fishpaste wrote:Matfield can be justified, only just...but I agree with Biltong: Jean dV is off the pace and his inclusion breaks up an exciting partnership between De Allende and Kriel; Du Preez hasn't played in ages and none of the no.10s have much experience with him....for my money they should give the captaincy to Burger who's experienced (and has been captain at WP) and is playing well.

If Matfield plays vs. England in a QF... they will win and win well.

He could sit on the sidelines bar the lineout and scrum, his work there would be enough to justify his selection.

I agree with Burger but if Alberts is fit and on form... the Alberts, Louw, Vermeulen trio was very very strong.

If I were to speculate on HM's intentions then I'd say that he feels that if Bissie, Burger, Vermeulen, Etzebeth, Louw are on song then they bring enough muscle to be able to allow HM to risk Matfield's lack of power in the loose for the sake of his prowess in the lineout.

Correct mrfishpaste, that is exactly what Meyer is thinking.

I have had the fortune of getting to know a lawyer who has connections with the Bok camp.

We are actually busy constructing an article with quite a bit of first hand information as to Meyer's thinking and methodology.

I will share it when we are done.

come on BB, its not rocket science, this is what goes through his head every day and how he bases his selection on...

Yo listen up here's a story
About a little guy that lives in a blue world
And all day and all night and everything he sees
Is just blue like him inside and outside
Blue his house with a blue little window
And a blue corvette
And everything is blue for him and himself
And everybody around
'Cause he ain't got nobody to listen to

I'm blue da ba dee da ba die...

FA, I have very interesting information.

It comes from within the bok camp

I know Meyer's methodology, his plan, why who is there, we are just making sense of it all at the moment.

yeah only kidding BB.

Those from the cape have always seen him with a bit of distrust. WP wins the CC and tops the SR table and only 6-7 get to tour with the boks out of 35 odd... with about 15 bulle.

Can't take the NT out the boy...

will be an interesting read no doubt.

I do agree with you in regards to the number of Bulls players though.

Interest piqued
When are we getting this information Biltong?

I am hoping for tonight Fern, it will explain Meyer's philosophy, there are some areas we had to debate as we don't have all the information.

It will however give a better understanding of hie methodology

Biltong wrote:I am hoping for tonight Fern, it will explain Meyer's philosophy, there are some areas we had to debate as we don't have all the information.

It will however give a better understanding of hie methodology

Shot, will check regularly

...but don't give away any trade secrets Biltong! You never know who might be reading....

SA team for Japan


15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Lwazi Mvovo, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Schalk Burger, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Lood de Jager, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Substitutes: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Fourie du Preez, 22 Handre Pollard, 23 JP Pietersen

Guys here is the article we put together based on the information we got.


American football has only one phase. The umpires helicopter their arms. The huddle breaks. Every player trots to an appointed spot. Every man has a duty. The center snaps to the quarterback, who hands off to a running back. Four yards and a cloud of dust. They all stand up. The QB consults a chart taped to wrist using pre-planned sequence or "checks off" a new play brought in by the shuttled player from the hyper-active, vein-popping coach.

There is no second phase. No breakdown. The only semi-chaotic plays occur when the defending team intercepts the ball and runs it back. Tacklers become blockers; a quarterback tries to tackle. Even kick returns are highly planned orchestras now, with channels, highly-regulated directions, and almost no lateral passes attempted unless the team is down to the last seconds and needs a touchdown.

Gridiron isn't a simple game; blocking achenes and the 'vertical' nature of the forward pass creates a complex chessboard, and a great coach is the MVP. Some coaches are virtual institutions.

Every player is a specialist, like Morne Steyn or Jannie du Plessis. The offensive guard never touches the ball. The punter never throws a pass. The wide receiver only catches. Quade Cooper and Kurtley Beale, if in the NFL, might never have to attempt a tackle.

Heyneke Meyer wants to simplify rugby, control it, zone it, and remove all chaos from the union code. Early in his career, he read a great deal about NFL coach Vince Lombardi; and periodically, has visited the US to study gridiron training, camps, tactics, and statistics. Meyer felt at home with obsessive NFL high-blood pressure manic coaches, who have team psychiatrists, nutritionists, holding coaches, jumping coaches, eyeball coaches.

One of his right hand men, Johann van Graan, coaches the Springbok forwards. This is like being no 2, because Meyer's strategy to win the World Cup revolves around only forward issues: scrum strong to win penalties, win all our lineouts and steal or bother theirs, and pulverise the breakdown area.

Van Graan grew up at Loftus Versveld; his dad ran the Bulls. The Bulls have had the most NFL-style setup in rugby for years: a machine, the best gym, a system with structures.

This is Meyer's philosophy: everything in a compartment. Compartmentalisation. Which is hard to spell. His coaching credo is compartmentaliabsoiusgfsgsgfdtsdation.

He noticed that the NFL keeps everything in compartments, too. So, he and van Graan have made annual pilgrimages to NFL pre-season camps, and try to adapt rugby to the NFL compartments.

Meyer and 'Aap' van Graan are like minds: they love stats, they love to watch rugby video, rewinding and stopping and pausing and playing--just like NFL coaches.

Meyer calls van Graan, who lived in the US, his best selection ever, player or coach. “When I appointed him, nobody knew who he was,“ says Meyer. "For one, because he came with no baggage, no background and secondly the way he grew in the position."

Meyer likes to build a structure. He wants things in compartments.

To understand Meyer’s compartments it is necessary to look at each facet of play as a compartment. The Scrum, the line out, the breakdown, the restart, are constituent parts, just percentages of the 80:00.

But Meyer dreams of breaking EVERY facet down into action items susceptible to measurements by van Graan. In this paradigm, the breakdown IS a set piece. Rugby as Moneyball; specialists at every position, except the bench (bench specialists).

So how does this translate into 2015?

Every set phase relies upon execution. For the 'breakdown set piece,' Meyer has Bismarck du Plessis, Francois Louw and Duane Vermeulen. In his mind South Africa has the best pilfering pack in thebusiness, and it isn’t hard to see why.

Pilfering is no longer about one blindside going to the ball on the ground, it is about a collective, and that is where the Springboks have it over other teams.

The Scrum is an area where the Springboks won’t dominate everyone, but Meyer believes his front row is good enough to gain parity against everyone.

The two areas of weakness in 2012 were line outs and restarts. That is where the selection of Victor Matfield came in. If you think Meyer isn’t aware of the liability Victor is outside of these two facets, you are wrong. He was going to use Pieter-Steph du Toit as a Matfield protégée, but the young phemom has struggled to stay healthy.

Heyneke Meyer sees the maul as crucial in the RWC. So does every coach. But Meyer won't maul as much as some, because Meyer detests outcomes that are uncertain and referees are wildly inconsistent about maul defence. The Boks lost to Ireland because Meyer couldn't compartmentalise the maul.

When we initially looked at the compartementalisation by Meyer we thought he was completely ignoring the fact that set piece is literally only 20% of a match.

After much debate, to and froing, we eventually figured out that this is where the NFL really comes into play.

According to statistics once you go past the fourth phase of rugby, your chances of scoring diminishes significantly in rugby. You've heard this doctrine described by many coaches as 'playing too much rugby.'

The transition that takes place where the offensive team leaves and the defensive team comes on is usually accompanied with lots of statistical analysis by the commentators.

Meyer loves structure. He is famously chaos averse. Putting structure around the breakdown and transforming it into a 'set piece' is the embodiment of that neurosis.

But this is where the four down principle makes no sense in rugby. Once the set piece is completed, you have wild and crazy phase ball; how do you maintain control in phase play?

The beehive Honey Meyer theory is rather simple when you think about it.

The Springboks use every fourth phase as a “Fourth Down,” meaning they have the option to kick, and turn over possession, or alternatively they “reset” to first phase.

Consider what happens with fast ruck ball. You can play phase upon phase of quick ruck ball and hope your support runners are in place, they are running onto the ball and into continuing the momentum.

But by the umpteenth phase you will have lost momentum. And this is where the fourth down is used to reset play.

Play is slowed down.

A thinking scrumhalf like du Preez or Pienaar at the base of the ruck waits for his players to get into “set piece” position, and then the phase play is restarted.

Three quick phases, then reset phase, three quick phases, then reset phase.

This is however not where the compartmentalisation ends. Each player is ticked according to a skillset and their key performance indicators.

Pienaar resets the downs, he decides when it is necessary to kick or run the ball down the line.

Handre Pollard attacks the line flat. Damian De Allende draws defenders. Jesse Kriel exploits space and accelerates into that space.

Willie le Roux is the talisman (the quarterback) to create space, his skills to create hesitation in defensive structures to create space is well known.

The wingers are there to finish; and also chase kicks as if those kicks are long quarterback 50-50 passes to wide receivers running routes.

The goal kicking is crucial to Meyer, hence the back up selection of Morne Steyn. Pollard can be inconsistent, and Steyn is there as insurance, nothing else.

The one area where Meyer’s compartementalisation does not make sense is the transition in rugby from attack to defensive mode in the case of turnovers.

American Gridiron has 4 downs in which a team has to make 10 yards. If at the fourth down you have not made your ten yards, you punt the ball from the set piece and play ends. A turnover in the NFL immediately causes the coach to scream to the defensive player to 'get down!' Specialists.

In rugby a turnover is immediate, there is no break in play, and good teams exploit turnovers immediately. South Africa have struggled to transition their play from attack to defence, New Zealand in particular have exploited this well.


This analysis is Meyer in a nutshell, maintain control of the set piece, when the game is running away, reset the control, start again.

Every compartment is there for a reason, from each facet of play, right through to the skills of each required player, if necessary accommodation is made for player weaknesses.

All to ensure the execution of each compartment can perfected.

There are a few questions remaining, something that could not be established or reasoned out.

How do you compartmentalize the transition from attack to defense in the blink of an eye?

When structure is the core value of your game plan, at what point do the players have freedom in decision making?

Does quick ruck ball become "play what is in front of you" ?

We know Meyer experimented in 2015, we know that much, but what he experimented with remains a mystery.

The problem with American football and statistic's based strategies in rugby is that like many maths models seen in business... they only work under certain conditions, median conditions and don't cater for extreme scenarios.

I can understand teams not wanting to play too much rugby... NZ often are behind their opposition in the possession stakes. However tackling does take it out of you.

However at the very top I don't think it makes that much a diff between winning and losing. I think once teams become aware of them the gains become marginal. Its like the early professional era when teams like ENG started putting 40-50 points on teams like SCO, IRE, WAL. Eventually they were caught up.

Come the big teams I still think its the natural players, the ones who can make magic happen which decide outcomes. Ones who can score when they shouldn't.

Is that why we kick away so much?

Makes sense, if the chances of scoring is so low after the fourth faze. But do we really play to the fourth faze?

And American football is specialized because they can be. Look at it this way. If you attack, you would want Willie, but if you are fielding it you would want Zane. But that bit happens the same time in rugby, whereas in American football it is done by two different players.

Don't know how this philosophy is going to work out.

What is going on with BOKS?? They looked terrible against Japan.

Credit to Japan for the rugby they played but they seemed to dominate the collisions too.

Matfield and De Villiers just looked shell shocked - amazing that with the experience they have they couldn't get to grips with Japan.

Their glazed eyes were reminiscent of the AB's in 2007, rodders

Matfield is a passenger everywhere other than the lineout. He was for the Bulls all last season and i am amazed that he was selected for the World CUp. I don't think there is a single other international coach who would have picked him as part of the Bok squad!