European Knockout stages - who's going through?

First topic message reminder :

After five rounds, the qualifiers for knockout stages have three teams nominated - Leicester, Saracens and Racing 92.

Currently, as it stands, the order of teams involved in qualification is:

1. Saracens 24
2. Leicester 23
3. Racing    22
4. Ospreys 16 +12
5. Toulon 16 +0
6.  Wasps 15 +73
7. Clermont 14 +30
8. Stade Français 14 +53
9. Saints 14 -11
10. Ulster 13 +7
11. Exeter 11 -19
12. Bordeaux Begles 11 -23

Ulster play Oyonnax first and need a TBP plus as many points as possible to build their low PD.
Toulouse play Saracens. Nothing in it for Toulouse. Saracens will want the TBP ideally to secure top spot and a potential home semi.
Bath then host Toulon, whilst Wasps host Leinster. Toulon need a TBP and a good improvement in their points difference to set a target for Ospreys in their match the following day against Exeter to get the final home quarter.
Leinster could do Ulster a favour if they can continue their winning form and beat Wasps in Coventry - not likely though.
Racing don't have much in the game against Glasgow in Rugby Park as they can't drop lower than 3rd spot.
Saints need to get the full five points against Scarlets and hope other results go their way.
Leicester will know the results of the Racing and Saracens games before they take the pitch. They could drop a place to third but would still have home advantage. State Francais need the win to ensure they get a best runner-up spot.
Exeter host Ospreys with the Welsh club looking to top their group and win a potential home semi-final.
Clermont, at the same time, will hope Exeter do them a favour and they can win at home against UBB.
Lots to play for still.

I don't know LT, I think Leicester are getting their old mojo back and will be a force in Europe again. They can beat anyone on their day.

at home I agree, away from home not sure.

I do think though that we are developing a side that could play very well once spring arrives and running rugby can thrive.

eirebilly wrote:They can beat anyone on their day.

I might be clutching at straws here, but I see no chance of Exeter qualifying from this group, Clermont will easily beat Bordeaux and even if Exeter take 5 points and us nothing that will not IMO get them in as a best runners up, I hope Exeter management read this and decide it's a lost cause and pick a 2nd or 3rd choice team

It's rather safe to say that Racing is now qualified. 38-0 at HT .... hope no kids from Llanelli are watching this.

Support all Welsh teams and that's disappointing, although it also makes me smile given seagull's comments from a couple weeks ago .

Racing get a yellow card. Guess who?

38-7 still but Scarlets get two penalties on the spin 5m out

And Racing promptly switch in a fresh front row for the Scarlets put-in.

Yeah big Mike ... Bit of banter from Scarlet players as well

Boom Scarlet 2nd try : the start of the impossible come back?

No matter. Scarlets score to put more respectability into the scoreline.

38-14

Score is starting to look embarrassing now. Scarlets have a good team and consistently underperform in Europe, not only that but they often get thrashed.

Scarlets, despite threatening when they have the ball, seem to have forgot what tackling and rucking actually means.

Jeez. 50 point margin.

Can't really complain anymore about the French sending weakened teams out in later pool stages.

9 tries is nothing short of embarrassing - now I'll wait for someone to reply to this quoting Racing's budget...

Nah Pot... Toulouse did send a rather weak team to Oyonnax yesterday

whocares wrote:Nah Pot... Toulouse did send a rather weak team to Oyonnax yesterday

I was talking about Scarlets.

IMO it will be

1) Saracens 28 (Win V Toulouse)
2) Racing 26 (Win TBP V Glasgow)
3) Tigers 26 (Win V Stade)
4) Ospreys 20 (Win V Exeter)
5) Toulon 20 (Win V Bath)
6) Wasps 19 (Win V Leinster)
7) Clermont 19 (TBP Win V Bordeux)
8) Saints 19 (TBP win V Scarlets)

Makes Quarter finals
Saracens V Saints
Racing V Clermont
Tigers V Wasps
Ospreys V Toulon

Racing has already a home QF guaranteed so no point in sending a strong team in Kilmarnock. Same for Leicester travelling to Paris (with stade Francais still having a small chance as well).
Won't change the overall picture anyway.

whocares wrote:Racing has already a home QF guaranteed so no point in sending a strong team in Kilmarnock. Same for Leicester travelling to Paris (with stade Francais still having a small chance as well).
Won't change the overall picture anyway.

seeding changes the dynamic of a Home semi.

Welly wrote:

whocares wrote:Racing has already a home QF guaranteed so no point in sending a strong team in Kilmarnock. Same for Leicester travelling to Paris (with stade Francais still having a small chance as well).
Won't change the overall picture anyway.

seeding changes the dynamic of a Home semi.

Do they? Thought it was just a draw that would determine who would host the semi. Thanks.

(a) For Semi-final 1

If the clubs ranked 1 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 1 will have home country

If the clubs ranked 1 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 8 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home country advantage

(b) For Semi-final 2

If the clubs ranked 3 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 2 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 3 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 7 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home country advantage

I guess it depends on if all the teams with home advantage QF win.

I've updated the OP to reflect Round 5 results.

Currently, as it stands, the order of teams involved in qualification is:

1. Saracens 24
2. Leicester 23
3. Racing    22
4. Ospreys 16 +12
5. Toulon 16 +0
6.  Wasps 15 +73
7. Clermont 14 +30
8. Stade Français 14 +53
9. Saints 14 -11
10. Ulster 13 +7
11. Exeter 11 -19
12. Bordeaux Begles 11 -23

Lots to play for still for qualification, home quarters and semis..

Pool 2 scenario (unlikely but possible)

Exe beat Ospreys with TBP, 5-0 in match points
UBB beat Clermont with TBP but concede LBP and TBP, 5-2 in match points.

All 4 teams on 16 points.

Deciders are firstly head-to-head match points, then head-to-head points difference.

Exe beat O's and UBB on match points, but lose to Clermont on points difference.
O's beat Clermont on match points, but lose to UBB on points difference and Exe on match points.
Clermont beat UBB on match points and Exe on points difference, but lose to O's on match points.
UBB beat O's on points difference, but lose to Exe and Clermont on match points.

Who wins the Pool?

Dubbelyew L Overate wrote:Pool 2 scenario (unlikely but possible)

Exe beat Ospreys with TBP, 5-0 in match points
UBB beat Clermont with TBP but concede LBP and TBP, 5-2 in match points.

All 4 teams on 16 points.

Deciders are firstly head-to-head match points, then head-to-head points difference.

Exe beat O's and UBB on match points, but lose to Clermont on points difference.
O's beat Clermont on match points, but lose to UBB on points difference and Exe on match points.
Clermont beat UBB on match points and Exe on points difference, but lose to O's on match points.
UBB beat O's on points difference, but lose to Exe and Clermont on match points.

Who wins the Pool?

Under you scenario Exeter should win as they would have (by construction) the best total aggregate point difference from the pool

Dubbelyew L Overate wrote:Pool 2 scenario (unlikely but possible)

Exe beat Ospreys with TBP, 5-0 in match points
UBB beat Clermont with TBP but concede LBP and TBP, 5-2 in match points.

All 4 teams on 16 points.

Deciders are firstly head-to-head match points, then head-to-head points difference.

Exe beat O's and UBB on match points, but lose to Clermont on points difference.
O's beat Clermont on match points, but lose to UBB on points difference and Exe on match points.
Clermont beat UBB on match points and Exe on points difference, but lose to O's on match points.
UBB beat O's on points difference, but lose to Exe and Clermont on match points.

Who wins the Pool?

The first parameter used between teams on level points is points difference overall between tied teams in the pool.

Do bonus points come into the equation ?

If two teams are tied, net result between the teams is the decider - looking first at tournament points in the head to heads, then at points difference.

EPCR Website wrote:
(b) If two clubs in the same pool are equal on match points at the end of the pool stage, their ranking will be determined by the results of the two matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:
(i) the club with the greater number of match points from the two matches; or
(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches; or
(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in the two matches.

If more than two teams are tied (or teams are in different pools) then:

(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended under Disciplinary Rules in the pool stage; or
(iv) if unresolved, by drawing lots.

How the Ospreys can make the Champions Cup quarter-finals even if they lose to Exeter... the complex European qualifying conundrum explained

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/how-ospreys-can-make-champions-10749953

If it is an advantage, the matches in Pool 2 are the final set of matches of the weekend, so each team will know exactly what they have to do to qualify for the QF.

I think that certainly is an advantage. This will be quite the test for the 'rookie players' in the Ospreys set-up, as the likes of AWJ, Tips and Biggar will be leading the charge as usual, but the other guys around them need to step up.

mikey_dragon wrote:I think that certainly is an advantage. This will be quite the test for the 'rookie players' in the Ospreys set-up, as the likes of AWJ, Tips and Biggar will be leading the charge as usual, but the other guys around them need to step up.

Yes you are so right Mikey, it will also come down to injuries, will Biggar and Baldwin recover, can Arhip, Hassler and Lyds be pronounced fit and Walker needs replacing.
It has been announced Garces is the Ref for this game, so there has to be no question about scrum solidity, we absolutely have to have Dmitri back and going by Tandy's press conference he has the best chance of doing so.
Baxter is in a very enviable position if he can rotate his squad and get a performance like he had on Saturday, we couldn't possibly do anything like that and be in the position we are in in the pool.

Think Ulster need to go out and attack, attack, attack against Oyonnax. We're completely and totally reliant on other results going our way to even have a chance of qualifying, 'tis true, but we give ourselves the best possible chance if we can;

a) Win the game and score more than four tries (5 points brings us to 18)
b) Win by as large a margin as possible (our poor points difference is a disadvantage)
c) Score as many tries as possible!

Obviously that could all backfire horribly, but you know what- if we're going to go out, we might as well go out swinging!

LondonTiger wrote:If two teams are tied, net result between the teams is the decider - looking first at tournament points in the head to heads, then at points difference.

EPCR Website wrote:
(b) If two clubs in the same pool are equal on match points at the end of the pool stage, their ranking will be determined by the results of the two matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:
(i) the club with the greater number of match points from the two matches; or
(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches; or
(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in the two matches.

If more than two teams are tied (or teams are in different pools) then:

(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended under Disciplinary Rules in the pool stage; or
(iv) if unresolved, by drawing lots.

I think you're right that aggregate points difference would decide an  unresolved 4 way draw, but supposing a 3 way with Clermont missing out? Exeter would trump both Bordeaux and Ospreys on head-to-heads before reverting to aggregate points difference.

The rules don't say "If only two clubs...." but nor do they say "If two or more clubs....".


Baxter won't be clutching at those sort of straws, but he'll probably name a stronger team anyway. Chudley and Parling may be back from injury, but there'll still be at least 6, possibly 8, of the starters from the corresponding fixture missing injured.

the rules give two scenarios, one if two clubs are level and one if more than two are level. Quite clear in my book which group a 3 way tie would fit.

Unless I'm missing something, there isn't a specific scenario for more than two clubs being level.

the two scenarios are

"(b) If two clubs in the same pool are equal on match points at the end of the pool stage ....."

"(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, qualification/ranking will be determined ......."


If a litigious club missed out in a 3 way tie, there'd be bonuses all round in the legal profession.

I doubt we'll ever find out though.

Dubbelyew L Overate wrote:Pool 2 scenario (unlikely but possible)

Exe beat Ospreys with TBP, 5-0 in match points
UBB beat Clermont with TBP but concede LBP and TBP, 5-2 in match points.

All 4 teams on 16 points.

Deciders are firstly head-to-head match points, then head-to-head points difference.

Exe beat O's and UBB on match points, but lose to Clermont on points difference.
O's beat Clermont on match points, but lose to UBB on points difference and Exe on match points.
Clermont beat UBB on match points and Exe on points difference, but lose to O's on match points.
UBB beat O's on points difference, but lose to Exe and Clermont on match points.

Who wins the Pool?

so close

Apparently Clermont had a gimme penalty in the 79th minute to make the above scenario happen but didn't take it. They'd have qualified on Pts difference too. Greenwood calling it the worst decision in European Cup history...

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

Dubbelyew L Overate wrote:Pool 2 scenario (unlikely but possible)

Exe beat Ospreys with TBP, 5-0 in match points
UBB beat Clermont with TBP but concede LBP and TBP, 5-2 in match points.

All 4 teams on 16 points.

Deciders are firstly head-to-head match points, then head-to-head points difference.

Exe beat O's and UBB on match points, but lose to Clermont on points difference.
O's beat Clermont on match points, but lose to UBB on points difference and Exe on match points.
Clermont beat UBB on match points and Exe on points difference, but lose to O's on match points.
UBB beat O's on points difference, but lose to Exe and Clermont on match points.

Who wins the Pool?

so close

Apparently Clermont had a gimme penalty in the 79th minute to make the above scenario happen but didn't take it. They'd have qualified on Pts difference too. Greenwood calling it the worst decision in European Cup history...

Aye, Morgan Parra what a plank Penalty in front of the posts, 15 metres out
http://www.skysports.com/watch/video/sports/rugby-union/10142668/parras-quick-tap-blunder-costs-clermont (Sorry, there's a 30 second advert for the Royal Rumble)

To make matters worse, the knew they only need a LBP apparently
http://www.skysports.com/watch/video/10142679/fritz-lee-players-knew-we-only-needed-losing-bp

Most French decision in history.

So at least the French and the English clubs got their way and made the event their sole possession

Do you feel the Pro 12 can only compete if they have more clubs involved?

Riskysports wrote:So at least the French and the English clubs got their way and made the event their sole possession

The pro 12 will be back next year.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Do you feel the Pro 12 can only compete if they have more clubs involved?

No, but maybe if there was a level salary playing field

But that will never happen, as it seems that it has been given the green light to ignore it

It is going some fast down the football - buy your way to success - it will die a death soon - which is a shame

Oh I agree completely with that but it would ahve happened with format changes or not. The English clubs, at least some, could afford to spend more on their squads anyway and are held by the salary cap in the Aviva. This was being raised anyway and an additional marquee added. I also think it's a bit of ebb and flow, the irish in particular have lost a very good coach or 2 some legends of the game retiring and some good English guys are coming through now pushing the bar up for them. Possibly you'll see the likes of Saracens push hard and win a few in the next few years but we saw that from Toulon and Leinster as well.

When French sides have won the thing say eight years in a row and get bored with it, maybe fans will start to realise the old format wasn't quite as bad as they thought it was.

The Great Aukster wrote:When French sides have won the thing say eight years in a row and get bored with it, maybe fans will start to realise the old format wasn't quite as bad as they thought it was.

Really don't think that will happen TBH.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Oh I agree completely with that but it would ahve happened with format changes or not. The English clubs, at least some, could afford to spend more on their squads anyway and are held by the salary cap in the Aviva. This was being raised anyway and an additional marquee added. I also think it's a bit of ebb and flow, the irish in particular have lost a very good coach or 2 some legends of the game retiring and some good English guys are coming through now pushing the bar up for them. Possibly you'll see the likes of Saracens push hard and win a few in the next few years but we saw that from Toulon and Leinster as well.

The old format didn't have teams playing in a QF the week after the 6 nations! Thankfully we scrapped by Bath last year but that is outrages scheduling.

So timings is what is hampering the Pro 12.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:
The old format didn't have teams playing in a QF the week after the 6 nations! Thankfully we scrapped by Bath last year but that is outrages scheduling.

Nor does the new one.

2013/14 Six Nations finished on 15th March, 1/4 finals on 5th April
2014/15 Six Nations finished a week later on 21st March, 1/4 Finals on 4th/5th April (so two week gap rather than three, but would have been the same in old format)
2015/16 Six Nations finishes 19th March, 1/4 finals 9th April (back to a three week gap)


So New one just same as old in the 1/4 final scheduling.

Welsh and Irish teams would be much better if they had no limitations on imports like English and French teams, oh and a salary cap. The whole new competition is crap and not played on a level playing field.

Everything is geared up in favour of English sides, headline on the website read Worcester lost to Zebre instead of Zebre beat Worcester, very logical indeed. I wont be watching more of it.