6N 2016: Ireland v Wales, 7 February

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IRELAND v WALES
7 February 2016
KO: 15:00 GMT
Aviva Stadium, Dublin

Live on RTE, ITV, FR2, DMAX, BBC(H)

Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Touch judges: [tbc]
Television match official: [tbc]

A. Head to Head

123 Played 123
52 Won 67
4 Drawn 4
67 Lost 52
1,365 Points 1,461

B. Recent Form

29 August 2015
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
10 – 16 to Wales

8 August 2015
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
21 – 35 to Ireland

14 March 2015
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
23 – 16 to Wales

8 February 2014
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
26 – 3 to Ireland

2 February 2013
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
22 – 30 to Ireland

C. Teams

IRELAND

S Zebo; A Trimble, J Payne, R Henshaw, K Earls; J Sexton, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best (capt), N White; D Toner, M McCarthy; CJ Stander, T O’Donnell, J Heaslip.

Replacements: S Cronin, J Cronin, T Furlong, D Ryan, R Ruddock, K Marmion, I Madigan, D Kearney.

WALES

G Anscombe; G North, J Davies, J Roberts, T James; D Biggar, G Davies; R Evans, S Baldwin, S Lee, L Charteris, A-W Jones, S Warburton (capt), J Tipuric, T Faletau.

Replacements: K Owens, G Jenkins, T Francis, B Davies, D Lydiate, L Williams, R Priestland, A Cuthbert

As sad as it is, I would put my money on Wales. As I said earlier, Schmidt seems to be going in the direction of trying to counter any of Gatland's Welsh tactics instead of going for the strongest team with the form players playing in their best positions.

It all seems very negative to me. I still expect a close game but feel Wales will be just that bit better.

eirebilly wrote:As sad as it is, I would put my money on Wales. As I said earlier, Schmidt seems to be going in the direction of trying to counter any of Gatland's Welsh tactics instead of going for the strongest team with the form players playing in their best positions.

It all seems very negative to me. I still expect a close game but feel Wales will be just that bit better.

And we wont be falling for any of that fecking Irish blarney too Nice try though almost had me reaching for the handkerchief

Well come on then Guru, give us your Welsh sob story

Despite the fact I now see McCloskey as our best centre option in isolation, the more and more I think about it, the happier I am with the idea that Henshaw and Payne will start together. We have so many potential absentees from our first choice team at the World Cup; Ross, O'Connell, O'Brien, O'Mahony, Bowe, Kearney. And then their back-ups are missing; Marty Moore, Henderson, Chris Henry and Felix Jones has retired. Even Tuohy who was often the fourth choice lock is missing.

So we'll have two completely new tight heads, a new lock, and if injury reports are correct we'll have a completely new-look back row and our first choice fullback missing- frankly the centres and the halfbacks are the only two units that we have the option of not changing.

No-one can legitimately accuse Schmidt of sticking to what he knows because he couldn't just stick to what he knows even if he wanted to! If the reported team is correct we're going to be seeing players with very few caps in key positions in the pack and tight five.

Its hard to see a win in those circumstances, but if we do win Schmidt will come out of it looking really good.

Don't forget you're at home, Notch. That counts for a lot, even with a largely second string team. I'm certainly not expecting a Welsh win. We can win, but it is nowhere near a forgone conclusion.

eirebilly wrote:Well come on then Guru, give us your Welsh sob story

No Halfpenny, No Liam Williams or Scott Williams and poor Hallom Amos still not fit Wales by 20

Griff wrote:Don't forget you're at home, Notch.  That counts for a lot, even with a largely second string team.  I'm certainly not expecting a Welsh win.  We can win, but it is nowhere near a forgone conclusion.

For some strange reason, home advantage has never seemed to count for much in this fixture! Sometimes the thought of being at home I find really reassuring, like against France, but it just doesn't seem to matter against you lot. Equally I don't feel as intimidated about playing in Cardiff as I would about Paris but if there's one team that can even the odds in Dublin it's Wales.

15. Simon Zebo (Cork Con/Munster) 21
14. Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster) 58
13. Jared Payne (Ulster) 10
12. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Connacht) 15
11. Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster) 46
10. Jonathan Sexton (St Mary's College/Leinster) 56
9. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster) 42



1. Jack McGrath (St. Mary's College/Leinster) 25
2. Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster) 89 Captain
3. Nathan White (Connacht) 8
4. Mike McCarthy (Lansdowne/Leinster) 17
5. Devin Toner (Lansdowne/Leinster) 31
6. CJ Stander (Munster)*
7. Tommy O'Donnell (UL Bohemians/Munster) 9
8. Jamie Heaslip (Dublin University/Leinster) 80 Vice-Captain

Replacements
16. Sean Cronin (St. Mary's College/Leinster) 48
17. James Cronin (Dolphin/Munster) 2
18. Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster) 3
19. Donnacha Ryan (Shannon/Munster) 34
20. Rhys Ruddock (St Mary's College/Leinster) 6
21. Kieran Marmion (Corinthians/Connacht) 4
22. Ian Madigan (Blackrock College/Leinster) 25
23. David Kearney (Lansdowne/Leinster) 14

Stander has a good pedigree and will be one to look out for :


Having already represented the side at the 2009 IRB Junior World Championship, Stander captained the South Africa Under-20 team that competed in the 2010 IRB Junior World Championship, leading them to a third-place finish.[55][56] He was called up to train with the Springboks squad in June 2012, but was not part of the final squad.[57]

I wouldn't call that a Leinster biased team selection (4 forwards and 1 back).

Not sure DK deserves to be in the match day squad.

Paddy Jackson must not be doing something during camp and practice sessions because he should be on the bench at least.

Glad not to see Reddan in there, he hasn't been good enough.

McCarthy picked on form but tbh would prefer the bulk of D Ryan in there.

Only 6 players who started the quarter-final against Argentina in this team, and Earls is playing in a different position. Also missing are Reddan, Jackson, Strauss and Fitzgerald from the bench.

Of course some of this is because of a positive reason. Injured players have returned, such as Sexton and Payne, and that will steady the ship. But even so thats a huge turnover in personnel up front. Only Best, Toner and Heaslip remaining from the World Cup pack.

It will take this team a few games to find their rhythm. Sorry to say it, but we should manage our expectations.

I think thats my biggest problem with the selection bandwagon. Mike McCarthy over Donnacha Ryan. Thats the big one where I'd feel a lot better if it went the other way. That and Paddy Jackson not on the bench are the only really controversial calls. Must have been close.

I think maybe it's down to Ryan not playing much rugby, but equally McCarthy barely lasts 80 minutes- suppose its better to have McCarthy starting and running out of puff than coming off the bench and running out of puff.

Don't think Kearney would be in the 23 if not for his big brothers injury, and maybe not even then if Fitzgerald wasn't injured too. Zebo seen as covering all the back three positions would surely be covering on the bench. Jackson may be unlucky that Fitzgerald got injured- he can cover every position outside 10.

Would be interesting if Jackson comes off the bench tonight and slots into the midfield wouldn't it? Even if he did I'd still rather that Madigan cover 12 for many reasons; my issue with that is more to do with who is better if Sexton gets injured in the first 10 minutes. Madigan the better utility player vs. Jackson the better out half for a bench spot is another tight call. Even if I don't agree with the call that has been made I can see the logic behind it.

Marmion replacing Reddan is the stealth changing of the guard call no-one has been talking about. He's been knocking on the door for a while now, but unfortunately it seems to have more to do with Reddan going downhill than Marmion being too good to ignore!

Plenty of reports that McCloskey and Jackson have been heavily involved with the first team in training so not downhearted even as a champion of those two players, think it's not if but when.

RubyGuby wrote:

eirebilly wrote:Well come on then Guru, give us your Welsh sob story

No Halfpenny, No Liam Williams or Scott Williams and poor Hallom Amos still not fit  Wales by 20

Er...

It be a kick fest first twenty minutes

Notch wrote:I think thats my biggest problem with the selection bandwagon. Mike McCarthy over Donnacha Ryan. Thats the big one where I'd feel a lot better if it went the other way. That and Paddy Jackson not on the bench are the only really controversial calls. Must have been close.

I think maybe it's down to Ryan not playing much rugby, but equally McCarthy barely lasts 80 minutes- suppose its better to have McCarthy starting and running out of puff than coming off the bench and running out of puff.

Don't think Kearney would be in the 23 if not for his big brothers injury, and maybe not even then if Fitzgerald wasn't injured too. Zebo seen as covering all the back three positions would surely be covering on the bench. Jackson may be unlucky that Fitzgerald got injured- he can cover every position outside 10.

Would be interesting if Jackson comes off the bench tonight and slots into the midfield wouldn't it? Even if he did I'd still rather that Madigan cover 12 for many reasons; my issue with that is more to do with who is better if Sexton gets injured in the first 10 minutes. Madigan the better utility player vs. Jackson the better out half for a bench spot is another tight call. Even if I don't agree with the call that has been made I can see the logic behind it.

Marmion replacing Reddan is the stealth changing of the guard call no-one has been talking about. He's been knocking on the door for a while now, but unfortunately it seems to have more to do with Reddan going downhill than Marmion being too good to ignore!

Plenty of reports that McCloskey and Jackson have been heavily involved with the first team in training so not downhearted even as a champion of those two players, think it's not if but when.

Have to say IMO McCarthy has been the form lock in the country this season. Hes no spring chicken but he merits his place and as you say, better to have him starting and be replaced then have to come in early into the match.

That Irish front 8 is almost as depleted as the Welsh midfield at the WC. O'Brien joins fellow big men Healy, Ross, O'Mahony and Henderson on the sidelines. Really hope for Ireland's sake their saffer can add some extra 'umph for the absentees.

Really surprised at some of the omissions/exclusions. Was expecting Jackson and McCloskey in the squad given their high ratings by Irish fans this season.

Trying not to let my confidence bubble over. Wales now have a notable edge in experience in the second row, back row and midfield.

Let's not forget the effect the weather might have on this game it looks horrendous so ball carrying from the pack and tactical kicking will be order of the day and ireland look well equipped to okay that game.

Considering the injuries Ireland are dealing with, that looks a strong team. Very little in this game on paper, will be interesting to see if either team have developed their game, or if the weather allows them to play a bit, forecast looks very ugly for Sunday.

It looks as if there is a lot of form players in that Ireland team, so depth must be good on the emerald isle. Irish overconfidence seems low this year, you can tell because walking-talking egg Keith Wood hasn't talked his team up over Wales.

mikey_dragon wrote:It looks as if there is a lot of form players in that Ireland team, so depth must be good on the emerald isle. Irish overconfidence seems low this year, you can tell because walking-talking egg Keith Wood hasn't talked his team up over Wales.

Most previews are predicting a narrow Welsh victory where as Ireland are usually favs for this one...!

I'd say it's going to be close but that Ireland team is decidedly strong considering the talented players missing. If Wales can win this that will be a huge achievement.

Until I saw the team Ireland selected yesterday I was full of confidence, not so much now. I don't think there is an area of the game where Wales have a clear advantage.

I seriously hope that tomorrow's match in Dublin is a lot more entertaining than today's matches.

maestegmafia wrote:I seriously hope that tomorrow's match in Dublin is a lot more entertaining than today's matches.

Don't count on it. Disruption with injuries, only two weeks preparation and both teams desperate to avoid losing- shouldn't be pretty, but it will be close. Still have to say Wales have the edge.

[quote="maestegmafia"]I seriously hope that tomorrow's match in Dublin is a lot more entertaining than today's matches.[/quote]



mastegmafia.


What people  don't seem to realise is that this is the first game for all ( TEAMS )  First international game that is,  since the Rugby World Cup.

So the type of game every body is hoping for might not come untill next week or the week after.

And also this is the NH teams and not the SH teams.

Notch - how long do the coaches get to prepare for the Rugby Championship?

I see the Irish hammering the Welsh but regardless of the result both teams are just lambs waiting for the English Wolf Pack at the Wolfs den HQ.

maestegmafia wrote:I seriously hope that tomorrow's match in Dublin is a lot more entertaining than today's matches.

Your be disappointed - the weather forecast is terrible

geoff999rugby wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:I seriously hope that tomorrow's match in Dublin is a lot more entertaining than today's matches.

Your be disappointed  - the weather forecast is terrible

Is this about Wales getting there excuses in early?

Am sure it will be a cracking game as it has been in the last few 6N when Wales and Ireland played each other

I personally think that this game is to close too call.

Wales and Ireland have settled side. Yes Ireland are with out Paul Oconnell, but lets be honest here 1 man a team does not make.

The only reasons why I feel this game may be close is because its being played in Dublin and Wales are notoriously slow starters.

The first games of the 6Ns are traditionally tight affairs. If you are a 'neutral' you just want them to be entertaining or at least favour one team over another & want that team to win & if neither happens your disappointed.
You shouldn't however be surprised.

I have a deep sense of foreboding

I just would have felt more confident with McCloskey partnering Henshaw and Payne filling the fullback spot. It would have allowed Ireland more creativity to work with. As it stands, I feel Ireland will struggle score tries whereas if swapped around, Ireland would look more threatening.

Billy, Ireland without McCloskey and including Zebo instead of Payne at fullback isn't going to be the difference for the winning or losing of this game. The big difference will be the loss of Paul O'connell in the pack to counter AW Jones who is probably the only world class player starting today. He is going to r*** our lineout and I expect there to be plenty of line outs.

The game will be Wales' in the forwards but I still believe that had Payne started at 15 with McCloskey at 12 Ireland would have had the edge in the backs. AW Jones is very good in the lineout but Toner is not bad there so I expect parity in the lineout.

Every one seems to think that Wales are going to win this game. why? They are playing Ireland in Ireland. and they (Wales) are very slow starters in the first game.

I do believe that this game will be very close, but Ireland at home. will be too much for Wales in my opinion.

majesticimperialman wrote:Every one seems to think that Wales are going to win this game. why? They are playing Ireland in Ireland. and they (Wales) are very slow starters in the first game.

I do believe that this game will be very close, but Ireland at home. will be too much for Wales in my opinion.

Wales have won 2 of the Last 3 in Dublin Maj and whilst  I agree we are slow starters this is right on the back of a decent RWC so there is an element of continuity as illustrated by successive Grand Slams after the last 2 world cups. With that said it remains a 50/50 game but certainly one that Wales can win:thumbsup:

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Notch - how long do the coaches get to prepare for the Rugby Championship?

They generally have a series of three test matches before the Championship kicks off, which is our Summer Tour. Admittedly in recent times the players now go back to Super Rugby in between the end of the Summer Tour and the start of the Rugby Championship, which is also far from ideal. The continued expansion of Super Rugby has the potential to cause them similar problems to the ones we experience due to a bloated club season. Previously that time was spent in camp.

The test series that opens the international season for them is the perfect opportunity to experiment, introduce new players and try and broaden the tactical repertoire. Our November series normally plays a similar role, albeit with much more of a gap between it and the Six Nations and more rugby played in between. But in the year following the World Cup we don't even have that November series. Just a two-day camp at Christmas and two weeks before the tournament starts.

It's no surprise coaches are tempted to keep the same combinations intact from the World Cup. You just have to look at the error count in the games yesterday to see how hard it is to gel right away, particularly France who mixed up their team and made a number of mistakes that would give Schmidt sleepless weeks, never mind sleepless nights. It wasn't just them though, all the teams gave away really poor turnovers, knocked the ball on... it was very low-quality fare and thats not at all atypical of the opening round of the tournament.

The way the Six Nations is structured, the way it falls in the season, being successful is not about which coach can get his team playing the best rugby but rather about which coach can get his team to make the lowest number of mistakes across the whole tournament. Thats really the reason Ireland have won the last few championships... I obviously want to see a higher quality of rugby in the Six Nations from all of the teams but we have to change things for that to happen. We have to change the calendar.

In addition to my last post, lets also remember that all teams have to design their game plan with the possibility that they will be playing in some typically rotten February weather.

There is really nothing good about the timing of the Six Nations at present from a rugby point of view. Only reason it stays where it is are commercial reasons.

I think the two sides are both disrupted and therefore pretty even. Irish home advantage may be the difference.

For Wales they have at best 3rd choice full back, James is hit and miss and North way off form and Webb is also missing. Up front, Lydiate is not fit enough to start, and there are two rookie props.

Also worries on the bench as Priestland and Lydiate have had very little rugby, Owens is not the player he was before his neck injury, Francis is another rookie, Cuthbert another way off form and Lloyd Williams is a good emergency wing covering 9!

For me it's a game that could go either way and I would hope to see changes as the championship progresses, with Lydiate Amos and Liam starting and form scrum half Aled Davies given a chance, at least from the bench.

RubyGuby wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:Every one seems to think that Wales are going to win this game. why? They are playing Ireland in Ireland. and they (Wales) are very slow starters in the first game.

I do believe that this game will be very close, but Ireland at home. will be too much for Wales in my opinion.

Wales have won 2 of the Last 3 in Dublin Maj and whilst  I agree we are slow starters this is right on the back of a decent RWC so there is an element of continuity as illustrated by successive Grand Slams after the last 2 world cups. With that said it remains a 50/50 game but certainly one that Wales can win:thumbsup:

The last time Wales won in Ireland was due to Ireland being in disarray. That said, I am struggling to figure out what Schmidt's game plan will be today. I hope he doesn't try the kicking game again as Wales can counter that easily. To me, its all about defence defence defence based on Schmidt's selections, with the hope that Wales indiscipline offers Sexton kickable kicks. Cannot see too much attacking intent.

Well I'm not confident at all. Wales fans who are confident must have short memories: how many times have we struggled when we've been tipped as favourites? Answer: every time! Ireland at home, Wales with a young and inexperienced front row, a (some might say) light weight back row, 2/3 of the back 3 inexperienced (at this level) playing in probably windy and uncomfortable conditions. This has the makings of another Welsh disaster!

Griff wrote:Well I'm not confident at all. Wales fans who are confident must have short memories: how many times have we struggled when we've been tipped as favourites? Answer: every time! Ireland at home, Wales with a young and inexperienced front row, a (some might say) light weight back row, 2/3 of the back 3 inexperienced (at this level) playing in probably windy and uncomfortable conditions. This has the makings of another Welsh disaster!

Thats part of the reason we keep tipping you as favourites I guess. In all honesty, though, I'm toping both sides to play poorly. Just Wales to be less poor.

eirebilly wrote:

RubyGuby wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:Every one seems to think that Wales are going to win this game. why? They are playing Ireland in Ireland. and they (Wales) are very slow starters in the first game.

I do believe that this game will be very close, but Ireland at home. will be too much for Wales in my opinion.

Wales have won 2 of the Last 3 in Dublin Maj and whilst  I agree we are slow starters this is right on the back of a decent RWC so there is an element of continuity as illustrated by successive Grand Slams after the last 2 world cups. With that said it remains a 50/50 game but certainly one that Wales can win:thumbsup:

The last time Wales won in Ireland was due to Ireland being in disarray. That said, I am struggling to figure out what Schmidt's game plan will be today. I hope he doesn't try the kicking game again as Wales can counter that easily. To me, its all about defence defence defence based on Schmidt's selections, with the hope that Wales indiscipline offers Sexton kickable kicks. Cannot see too much attacking intent.

The Irish team looks a lot better than I thought it would. I thought injuries would take there till but they actually have left you with a decent team. There is a fair bit of form. Certainly a lot more form than us Welsh wanted to see.

Tommy O, Heaslip and CJS could be very classy, Sexton and Murray are great halfbacks. The centres are class and back three know what to do. Zebo is class on the wing. Not sure about at full back, may well be a target for us this afternoon.

The team is solid enough maest but some players are playing out of positions (Payne at 13 and CJ Stander at 6) that they have been in excellent form at club level. This just smacks of negativity and an attempt to counter Wales rather than play more to Ireland's strengths.

eirebilly wrote:The team is solid enough maest but some players are playing out of positions (Payne at 13 and CJ Stander at 6) that they have been in excellent form at club level. This just smacks of negativity and an attempt to counter Wales rather than play more to Ireland's strengths.

Personally I would have picked Ringrose at thirteen, Payne at fullback and Zebo/Trimble on the wings.

I think CJS and Haealip will work, they both play a similar game.

Think its a little early for Ringrose, his time will come and McCloskey has been in some serious form so he would get the nod. Payne defo to 15 where I feel he would be more potent in attack than Zebo right now.

I would also play CJ at 8 and Heaslip at 6, CJ has been in immense form at 8 for Munster.

I would also have had Jackson (if not starting) on the bench as cover for Sexton who has been getting injured quite a lot in recent years.

I understand where Schmidt is coming from but just disagree with the positions.

I agree regarding the back row. I thought that's what they had done, surprised to see CJS 6 and jH 8???


Dissagree re Ringrose, he is ready. Never to early for players like him. Ireland often reluctant to pick players early. But look how well you did years ago when you did it with a young BOD..

McClosky looks good too, great options there. And today's centre certainly won't let you down.

Ringrose is a serious talent but I believe he is still behind McCloskey, Marshall, Henshaw, Olding and even Cave right now. That will change by next year if he keeps progressing the way he is though. Champagne problems in the centres for Ireland now when it looked so bare as little as 2 years ago

eirebilly wrote:Ringrose is a serious talent but I believe he is still behind McCloskey, Marshall, Henshaw, Olding and even Cave right now. That will change by next year if he keeps progressing the way he is though. Champagne problems in the centres for Ireland now when it looked so bare as little as 2 years ago

Aye, I remember Gatland dragging Martyn Williams out of his retirement because Wales didn't have a seven, now we have a plethora of options.

Glad to see Marmion finally get some recognition too. He is a talented lad