Djokovic v Murray : RG Final 2016

Let's have a thread to discuss the final in advance.

And a poll for fun. Djokovic is obvious favourite so I've structured the poll in a way to make it more interesting. Not convinced by predicting set scores, you may as well try and predict the toss of a coin, so how about we try it in a different way.

If anyone wants to put a longer preview great. In the mean time a few thoughts.

Murray win:
First Brit to win RG for 80 years
Real opportunity to do career slam as would just leave AO which is winnable in the next few years

Djokovic win:
Career slam.
Non-calendar year slam - no-one has won 4 in a row since Laver
Novak enters the GOAT conversation

Djoko will be more nervous than usual when playing Andy in a Slam match, but I doubt whether Andy will play as well as he did against Stan in what was arguably one of his best GS performances.
As I've said on an adjoining topic, Murray has to really go for it. Really attack.

You'd be crazy not to have Novak down as firm favourite. He's an all-time great and will be fighting tooth and nail for this one. However, there are causes for mild optimism for Murray fans. He's clearly in the best clay form of his career and has notched up a recent clay win over Novak, albeit over 3 sets.

The big unknown is how Novak handles the pressure. Of course, he's no stranger to the big occasion, but his quest for a maiden RG title has spiralled into a bit of an albatross over the years. If Andy was playing close to his best in an Oz final, I'd have little doubt that Novak would effortlessly move up a gear and edge it on a few big points. If, however, Andy can push Novak close on Sunday, I'm not quite so convinced that Novak will be as bullet-proof.

Anyway, whatever the result, it will be a significant one and I'm looking forward to it.

This has all the potential to be a "best match of the year," so let's hope they both "show up" for this decider. Murray I think, needs to win the 1st set, and keep close to Djokovic. I have a feeling that Djokovic will really feel the pressure here in this match - he wants it badly of course, and he's only a year younger than Nadal, so it's not like he has 5 good years ahead of him, at the top of the game. Others will start to come and challenge, and "not great" days, will happen more frequently.

Wishing for a Murray win, or at least a dog-fight here! IF Djokovic can roll, he's going to get "on top" of Murray - I think if they both play well, it's going to be a very "mental" confrontation. Both guys want it badly, Murray won't have too many chances I don't think, and it's really "NOW" for Djokovic...

The fact that neither player has ever triumphed here adds intrigue.

In a way, we can thank Rafa. He dominated the event so much that it added mystery to the question of whether first Federer, then Djokovic, then Murray can win it. Rafa held back the others enough to keep the suspense going.

It's not the same when a player is trying to win an event for the nth time. There just isn't the same intrigue. Will Djokovic win the Australian Open in 2017? Honestly, will anyone care?

Murray has his best shot and paradoxically so does Djokovic.

For Murray: playing some of the best clay court tennis of his career and Djokovic will undoubtedly be feeling more pressure. For Andy an appearance in the final is already big and I hope that allows him to hit freely and play his best rather than resulting in him coming out a little flat. He has to shorten the points, with controlled aggression,  meaning some long points but also enough shorter ones to save his legs and to stop Screech getting into too much of a rhythm. The weather may play a part; if it's cold and damp you'd have to favour SCreech.

For Screech - this really is his moment. The stars have aligned better than he could have hoped. Cup cake draw; his two biggest rivals out of the tournament, Stan who has the ability to take the game away from him also gone, and he's had the easiest path to the final imaginable. But will he get tight? Therein I think is the key to the match - the intangibles. How will Andy come out (flat or hitting freely) and how will Screech handle the pressure of closing in on his first RG.



emancipator - let the best man win - and let's all hope that's Andy

It's possible he could be on 14 slams by then - in which case there will be a lot of people caring a lot!

Not the final I was hoping for.  In fact, other than possible Nadal-Andy final, this was my least favorite one.  I will try to watch it anyway - there is enough at stake to make it intriguing regardless.

For once, I will be rooting for Andy .  But I expect Nole to win.  My two most likely scenarios (in arbitrary order):

a) Close for a while, and then Nole runs away with it.
b) Nole runs away with it from the start.

Let's all hope that I am wrong and that Andy lifts the trophy he so richly deserves.

to both racquet warriors. History will be made either way.

A lot has been made about physical advantages given the weather affecting the schedule but I wont subscribe to that. Whereas Novak has had a far more hectic second week by far, Murray has had the more gruelling matches over the two weeks (probably around 4 to 5 hours longer on court than Novak). Both now get a day off so both should be in fine shape for the final.

Murray has lost 6 sets in 6 matches, which is a lot more than Novak. Novak has had a more congested second week, but because it's been so cool I think both players will be physically fine for the final.

That is good news particularly for Novak as he can and does outlast everyone else on the tour physically. My personal view is that Andy needs to win both of the first two sets to win the match. We've seen him play well for 2-3 hours before and only be at 1-1 and then fade.

I think Andy is playing well enough to do it though. If he can replicate his level of play from yesterday he has a chance.

summerblues wrote:Not the final I was hoping for.  In fact, other than possible Nadal-Andy final, this was my least favorite one.  I will try to watch it anyway - there is enough at stake to make it intriguing regardless.

For once, I will be rooting for Andy .  But I expect Nole to win.  My two most likely scenarios (in arbitrary order):

a) Close for a while, and then Nole runs away with it.
b) Nole runs away with it from the start.

Let's all hope that I am wrong and that Andy lifts the trophy he so richly deserves.

Feel for you Best two players made the final with Murray taking out the reigning champion with a pretty impressive display. I'll obviously be supporting Andy in the final but expect Novak to win. If that is the case then I'll be on here to congratulate him. He will have earned it. First set will be vital. Should Djokovic win it (especially if as easy as at AO) I think he will go on to win quickly. Should Murray win it then it could be quite a long match.

Djoko hardly ever loses when he wins the first set but he managed it in last year's RG final.
Wonder if the Serb was actually hoping to be playing Stan, thinking that the Man would be unlikely to play so well again in a French final?
About time Andy had a chance of meeting someone other than a top two player in a GS final. Fed had Gonzo, Baggy et al, Djoko had a young Tsonga and Rafa had Puerta and Berdych. No such luck for Dunblane's finest.

That just tells you how creditable his two victories have been

Well, Andy's gone from being 2 points away from defeat in R1 to reaching the final with one of his most complete performances in a big match - never really looked under pressure against Stan after the first two games. If he can maintain the quality, intensity and aggression against Novak, he has a chance.

Djoko though seems to have breezed through even allowing for his somewhat congested schedule this week. I'm still not convinced he's really played that well more than a handful of times this season, but even at 6 or 7/10 he's currently too good for most opponents. At the AO, he raised his game in the SF and F, but there are some questions as to whether he can do the same here - firstly, he's not as dominant on clay as on slower HC and secondly the weight of expectation in completing the 'Serena Slam' and the career GS has to be considered given that he's been favourite for at least the last 2 finals at RG and has fallen short. Add in a recent loss to Murray on clay, and it's not quite as much a one-sided encounter as you might have thought a couple of seasons ago.

I agree with others though that for Andy to win he must exert scoreboard pressure - win the first and hold strong in the second and the pressure might start to tell on Novak. Of course, saying that and doing it ate two different things - I don't want to see Andy trying to out-Djokovic Djokovic from the baseline. Must be positive and either look to get to the net or look to bring Novak in and then pass or lob. Worked excellently against Stan, but Stan's not a great returner so often gives the advantage early in the rally to the server - Novak's one of the top 3 returners ever, so it's tougher to get the 3rd shot put-aways or to establish dominance.

Good post DH

I made the point about Djokovic racking up titles w/o playing particularly impressively. He's totally dominating the tour t virtually unprecedented levels and yet he's barely in third gear. That tells me there's a gap in the competition - not surprisingly since 2 GOATS have fallen off a cliff and everyone else has gotten two years older since Screech started his run - and no new talent has come through at the elite level.

It's getting beyond ridiculous - not one great player to emerge since, well, Djoko himself - 10 years ago (DP of course could have been that but for injuries).

I am hoping Murray can formulate another masterplan to overcome Djokovic like he did against Wawrinka. A lot has been made that his success at Rome over Novak was down to how well he served and his level of aggression. Apparently, his pecentage of first serve points won stood at 82% in Rome in the Final - a lot higher than it normally is V Djokovic when he loses. Also there was a greater concentration on serving to the forehand side and got reward for it. Also serving better allowed him to get his big shots in first and give him upperhand in the rallies. More of the same today please.

Whilst a win is a win and we can't take it away from him. I expect a completely different Djokovic to the Rome Final.

Think it's a 50/50 match myself. Would favour Djokovic if this was AO or USO, but I think the pressure makes it about even.

It will be different to Rome, different conditions and a fresher Novak. Murray was pretty dominant in Rome and he won't get it all his own way here.

However Murray has probably the most belief right now since winning Wimbledon. He went through a long spell post surgery of not beating any of his main rivals. Suddenly he's won his last encounter with Novak, with Rafa, with Stan, with Nishikori...

He might not win, but it won't be for a lack of belief. He should employ the same tactics he did in Rome, serving a lot to the forehand and unleashing on the second shot. He has to be close to the baseline and have good first serve percentages. And, of course, he has to deliver on the big points.

I'm really looking forward to it. Novak is of course favourite but I expect Andy to push him.

Danny_1982 wrote:It will be different to Rome, different conditions and a fresher Novak. Murray was pretty dominant in Rome and he won't get it all his own way here.

However Murray has probably the most belief right now since winning Wimbledon. He went through a long spell post surgery of not beating any of his main rivals. Suddenly he's won his last encounter with Novak, with Rafa, with Stan, with Nishikori...

He might not win, but it won't be for a lack of belief. He should employ the same tactics he did in Rome, serving a lot to the forehand and unleashing on the second shot. He has to be close to the baseline and have good first serve percentages. And, of course, he has to deliver on the big points.

I'm really looking forward to it. Novak is of course favourite but I expect Andy to push him.

Well will it be different to Rome if Murray serves as well again? That is key whether Novak is fatigued or not. Fact is Andy served way above what he normally does V Novak and served more specifically targeting Djoko's forehand. Murray has to work to a gameplan that works and Rome's gameplan certainly did.

Murray may serve as well as he did in Rome, but Djokovic may return better than he did in Rome.

Guest82 wrote:Murray may serve as well as he did in Rome, but Djokovic may return better than he did in Rome.  

He may very well do but he would very much need do but there is nothing Murray can do about that. All he can do is take care of things on his side of the net. A high level of success on first serve is a key recipe for success whoever the opponent is.

As the poll has closed without me contributing - I would have put Djokovic to win in four or five sets, with Murray being competitive throughout except maybe the last set or last few games.  That is simply going on past data.  It doesn't mean I don't think Murray can win.  He can and might.  But the evidence contained in past patterns of behaviour evidenced on the court and in terms of results indicates this is the most likely outcome.

Come on Andy!

I'm making it 50/50. I've got money on Murray, but would like to see Djokovic as I think four in a row would be a great achievement and set him apart (in one way) from Fedal.

I should add whatever the outcome - it is going to be headline news and exciting for tennis:

a) Either we are going to have someone who has the year round grand slam of grand slam titles - something that has not been done in the modern era of male professional tennis - plus someone moving towards challenging the record of numbers two and three on the "all time list" of modern male tennis players.

b) Or we are going to have a male Brit winning the French Open for the first time since 80 odd years and someone raising his level to establish the possibility of a real rivalry at the very top of the sport of male tennis.

The pedantic accountant in me has put up a new separate thread for live commentary to be consistent with the format of the rest of the tournament.

Okaaaaaaay....

Lovely play by Andy

Sorry about closing the poll. It was meant to time for the start of the match but I may have been slightly off.

cmon Andy

Andy with the upperhand early doors. Very encouraging.

Andy is hammering the forehand, holding nothing back. Since that free opening game, Novak looks rather nervous and the unforced errors are pilling up.

CC he is doing what I have said for an age that needs to be done with Novak.. Andy is forcing him to play his game.. piling on the pressure

Oh No Andy cmon hold hold

Critical hold that.

Blimy Andy don't doooooooooo that

Our first controversy

Now Andy now

Great stuff from Andy. I said before the match I believed he had to win both of the first two sets to win the match... Halfway there!

This is just stupid having two threads on the final.

What is so apparent is his focus and intensity.
Brilliant play by Andy here

Yes, sorry for creating confusion. I meant for this thread to be for pre match discussion and a poll, and the other one with a pun title and the order of play and a title posted in keeping with the rest of the tournament, and what we did for the semi final.

Probably a msitake by the look of it, but I am going to try and shut down the discussion on this thread and move live discussion to:
https://www.606v2.com/t63316-french-open-day-15-can-handy-andy-make-a-joke-out-of-the-djoker

So suggest to stop comments on this thread for now. Sorry for confusion.

Move to https://www.606v2.com/t63316-french-open-day-15-can-handy-andy-make-a-joke-out-of-the-djoker

Not good rally that Andy just trading baseline shots. Needs to mix it up.

Looks like this is the outcome: Djokovic to win comfortably (i.e. Murray to get less than 15 games)

Looking like 3-6 6-1 6-2 6-4.  That would make Murray winning 13 games which by my estimation is less than 15 games.

Yes, only 2 voters got that right, I think I went for more than 15.

Congrats to Nole and commiseration to Murray's fans. Novak fully deserved it, he was better player. He belongs already to tennis legends and hopefully his run continues. Unbelievable performance

Nore Staat wrote:Looks like this is the outcome: Djokovic to win comfortably (i.e. Murray to get less than 15 games)

And I'm surprised anyone could think differently.

I was astonished that odds of 1/3 were available on Djokovic to win - printing money, easy as you like.