Australian Open - Day 12

First topic message reminder :

Rafa against Dimi today, with everyone expecting/hoping for a Fedal final. Dimi has been playing well of late, but Rafa must be favourite. It could be a long one.

It'll be a right love in on Sunday

Maybe I'm wrong but this feels like a farewell tour to one if the greatest rivalries in sport

Fed may well pull one back for his 3 losses to him here. Or maybe it will be a microcosm of their previous meetings. Either way it'll be a great occasion

Sounds like a terrific encounter and at nearly five hours it brings back memories of the 09 AO. Then, Rafa, playing his semi on the Friday, had an ultra-long one with Verdasco but still had too much for Rog in the Sunday final. Can't help thinking the same will apply here.
Didn't think Dimi would give him such a good match, although the Bulgarian has been playing well of late.
Alas, Fed fans are resigned to another Rog defeat at the hands of Rafa. But, hey, it's still been a great tournament for Fed (and the Big Four live on!).

That was worthy of a final.. as a Rafa fan my condolences to Dimitriov he played a fantastically well and I thought Rafa was going to take an early shower in that final set. Rafa showed why Ive always supported him.. the dogged determination and will to win is what has set him apart from so many in the sport. So glad to see him back the tour needed him. Great match Ill come out from behind the sofa now I think

Aye. 3-4 15-40 to 5-4 is why I and do many others fell in love with him despite his slow play between points. It's just so hard not to love that level of effort

I hope I'm wrong but I've got a feeling that Sunday's much anticipated final may be a bit of an anti-climax. Its been a great achievement for both Federer and Nadal to make it through the tournament, but based on previous match-ups between the two, and how Nadal is these days, I think that both will be a bit nervous and it could be a scrappy affair. Most likely outcome is a 4 set win for Nadal.

Whilst I think the match won't be a classic it will still of course be a memorable occasion as its likely to be the last time we'll see these two in a slam final and we will still get a few nice rallies.

I do see you

Both will be tired. As fed hasn't played much but Rafa has had this very long match

Both will be nervous

I think this is as tight their match ups have been for a very long time though

MrI. Don't be too pessimistic about these two never competing in a GS final again. OK, it was remarkable they made it this far this time, but as long as they are in different halves on the draw in subsequent GS it could certainly happen again.

Ive watched many many champions over the years and have incredible memories of some of the memorable matches and greatest players . but I can truthfully say that I feel honoured to have seen both these men playing in their peaks and troughs but nothing excites me more than seeing them both on court playing each other.. whatever the match whatever the outcome I feel particularly privileged to be fortunate enough to have see them at the top of their sport .

Haddie-nuff wrote:Ive watched many many champions over the years and have incredible memories of some of the memorable matches and greatest players . but I can truthfully say that I feel honoured to have seen both these men playing in their peaks and troughs but nothing excites me more than seeing them both on court playing each other.. whatever the match whatever the outcome I feel particularly privileged to be fortunate enough to have  see them at the top of their sport .

Wonderfully worded!

kemet wrote:

barrystar wrote:Shame - let's hope that Dimitrov pushes on from here.  I'll probably watch the final, but the only thing I dislike more than the sheer inevitability of the result in bo5 Fedal matches is that Fed usually plays well enough at times to give false hope https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfnhmuZ27eQ

If Federer gets embroiled in 20-21 shot rallies on almost every second point in Sunday's final, there can only be one outcome....

He needs cheap service points like anything - and if he plays well there will be periods of the match when he gets that, there will also be periods when he has to go toe-to-toe in long rallies and I agree that we all know what will happen then.  Experience tells that the latter type of exchange is likely to predominate at key stages in the match.

In bo5 Fedal matches the 1st set is absolutely crucial for Federer, and very important but a bit less vital for Nadal.  Ultimately I expect Nadal, and either:

(a) 4 sets with the last two going Nadal's way and being less tight than the first two;
(b) three sets, two tight first sets and a clear third set.

Don't see Federer winning the final. Nadal is mentally strong and in Federer's head. Dimitrov crushed his back hand more than Federer's able to do on a sustained level against Nadal. Unless Nadal can't physically recover Federer will be joining Lendl on 11 major final defeats...

I'd be very surprised if Federer wins. I'd love him to, but can't see it happening.

The match up is too bad and the history too much. Rafa is playing 'well' - not brilliantly, but well. That's enough to beat 95% of the versions of Federer.

Dimitrov had 3-4, 15-40. Rafa seems to have regained his ability to win the big points.

Despite all the nay-Federer votes, I predict a Federer win, and am happy to be alone in such a prediction.

Dimitrov played a good match. . Valleverdu has done very well with Dimitrov.

A few factors to consider before the final.
Nadal 3-0 Federer in Melbourne.
Federer's last win in a major over Nadal was Wimbledon 2007, nearly 9 1/2 years ago.
Nadal's 6-2 in major finals

You're not alone on that. Just sort of feelslike the correct result this time

laverfan wrote: Valleverdu has done very well with Dimitrov.

Aye - let's see a few more deep runs into Masters and Slams as well as the odd 250 and 500.  His talent merits it, and Stan's career shows that 25 is not too late to turn it around with some hard work.  Signs that he'll foregoe the A-list laydees for the time being are to the good.

Let's do the time warp again.

Suggest Fed fans go out and put money on Rafa for the final. At least something can be salvaged from what is likely to be another GS final defeat.
Of course, we'll never know how Rog and Rafa would have got on had they met Andy M or Djoko at Melbourne this year. As it is, the two finalists have beaten the 3, 4, 5 and 6 seeds between them. Their progress - given their time out/age - has been little short of remarkable.
Just when you thought it was safe to come out from behind the sofa.....

It'll be interesting to see with what strategy Fed will come into the final. He has problaby watched today's semi as preparation. Did Dimitrov have the right strategy today? I would say so: he played aggressively off both wings and came to the net when he got a short ball. Did he execute well? He definitely did, apart from a few double faults in the games he was broken. And STILL he lost...

Federer is better than Dimitrov at the net, but I doubt he will be able to do significantly better in the baseline rallies. And he won't be able to succesfully go into long rallies for 5 sets - like Dimitrov did.

I guess his only chance is to be ultra aggressive. And I don't mean coming to the net all the time, but going for winners as early as possible in the rally; taking risks with his 2nd serve; using SABR in the return games.

He should play freely: most people don't expect him to beat Nadal anymore these days and if he loses, Nadal still needs to win 3 more Slams to break Fed's record, which will be very tough with Djokovic and Murray still around and younger players like Dimitrov and Zverev eventually starting to win majors.

wow, what a game it was. And here we are again

Prostaff85. Yes, attack is Fed's best weapon against Rafa. Problem is that you get pinned back so much when playing Rafa and you end up not being able to play as aggressively as planned.
Dimi should take great heart from the fight he put up. Reminds me of Stan losing, heartbreakingly, to Djoko in the AO a few years back but coming back to beat him later and go on to win it, plus more Slams.

I decided to put up final threads. Just purely as a suggestion I suggest we use this thread for the discussion of the Rafa-Dimi match, and the day 14 thread for the pre-match build up and live commentary on the final, moving the discussion more over there at some point.

I agree with Barrystar, more or less. THe two most likely outcomes are Rafa in 3, or Federer to storm through the first set and a half, before the match flips in Rafa's favour and Rafa wins in four.