Super Rugby 2017 Season

First topic message reminder :

The Blues went to Melbourne and smashed the Rebels 18-56. The Rebels led something like 12-3 after about 25 minutes then just started turning the ball over and got blown away.

Rieko Ioane scored a hat trick of tries. He and his brother Akira have looked good prospects for a while.

mikey_dragon wrote:15-0? That's horrific. Only a few more weeks until you get some real opposition come down ; speaking of which this surely means Bryn Gatland will get some game time versus the Lions?

He's been selected for the provincial team in the first friendly so he'll play the Lions then. Unsure whether the Blues will require him as well/instead.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:15-0? That's horrific. Only a few more weeks until you get some real opposition come down ; speaking of which this surely means Bryn Gatland will get some game time versus the Lions?

He's been selected for the provincial team in the first friendly so he'll play the Lions then. Unsure whether the Blues will require him as well/instead.

The Blues probably will - Francis will be in Argentina with England so Gatland should make the 23. West may get the starting 10 jersey though

Crusaders are probably going to have to use Taufua at 8 for the next few weeks, annoyingly Whetu Douglas (who was superb as cover while Read recovered from wrist surgery) is no longer available as his Treviso contract has kicked in - bet he's gutted he signed for them as soon as he missed the initial Super Rugby squads, he'd be worth a fair bit more now.

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:Crusaders are probably going to have to use Taufua at 8 for the next few weeks, annoyingly Whetu Douglas (who was superb as cover while Read recovered from wrist surgery) is no longer available as his Treviso contract has kicked in - bet he's gutted he signed for them as soon as he missed the initial Super Rugby squads, he'd be worth a fair bit more now.

Treviso could be a good stepping stone to a French or English club if he wants that route.

mikey_dragon wrote:15-0? That's horrific. Only a few more weeks until you get some real opposition come down ; speaking of which this surely means Bryn Gatland will get some game time versus the Lions?

 Dont worry the Blues get more than enough competition when playing the other New Zealand teams, currently the Blues are coming last in the New Zealand conference, whereas if they were playing in the Australian conference they would be coming first.

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:Today's scores so far:
Chiefs 27-20 Sunwolves - no TBP for the Chiefs, and the Japanese lads get 1 point from their 3 match NZ tour
Reds 26-29 Waratahs
Force 15-24 Lions (Lions TBP)
Lions 21-48 Crusaders - Crusaders TBP, but lost Kieran Read for 6 weeks with a broken thumb, meaning he's tight for the 1st Lions' test

And just after half time in the clash of the dead-men-walking
Kings 23-3 Rebels

It was the Cheetahs who played the Crusaders....

aucklandlaurie wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:15-0? That's horrific. Only a few more weeks until you get some real opposition come down ; speaking of which this surely means Bryn Gatland will get some game time versus the Lions?

 Dont worry the Blues get more than enough competition when playing the other New Zealand teams, currently the Blues are coming last in the New Zealand conference, whereas if they were playing in the Australian conference they would be coming first.

...and the Brumbies will get a nice home semi-final for their efforts (or despite their efforts)...

Not seen anything in the press over here - Have they decided on the franchises that will be cut yet?

Hurricanes 41...Stormers 22.

 Highlanders 45...Cheetahs 41.

Twenty tries.

Saw a little of the Highlanders/Cheetahs game. The defence from both teams was pretty shocking, it was played like a pre season friendly with both teams throwing it around.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Saw a little of the Highlanders/Cheetahs game. The defence from both teams was pretty shocking, it was played like a pre season friendly with both teams throwing it around.

 If the "little" that you was the last 5 minutes , What did you think?

aucklandlaurie wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:Saw a little of the Highlanders/Cheetahs game. The defence from both teams was pretty shocking, it was played like a pre season friendly with both teams throwing it around.

 If the "little" that you was the last 5 minutes , What did you think?

I got in from work in time to see the Highlanders score first phase from a lineout when down to 14 (50 something on the clock) and then the Cheetahs go side to side and score within about 5 minutes. Missed the end as I had to go an collect my wife from the station. 

The offloading and passing skills were nice but lack of dominant hits on the gain line made it easier for those skills to come to the fore. I presume the last five mins had the Highlanders score late tries to win?

More results:
 Lions 47...Rebels 10.
 Chiefs 46...Reds 17.
 Sharks 37...Force 12.
 Crusaders 62...Bulls 24.
 Blues 40...Waratahs 33. (with English 1st five Piers Francis kicking 4 penalties and 4 conversions for the Blues).

formerly known as Sam wrote:

aucklandlaurie wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:Saw a little of the Highlanders/Cheetahs game. The defence from both teams was pretty shocking, it was played like a pre season friendly with both teams throwing it around.

 If the "little" that you was the last 5 minutes , What did you think?

I got in from work in time to see the Highlanders score first phase from a lineout when down to 14 (50 something on the clock) and then the Cheetahs go side to side and score within about 5 minutes. Missed the end as I had to go an collect my wife from the station. 

The offloading and passing skills were nice but lack of dominant hits on the gain line made it easier for those skills to come to the fore. I presume the last five mins had the Highlanders score late tries to win?

 3 Converted tries in the last 5 minutes. one of the best comebacks since Lazarus of Bethany.

Meanwhile over in BA.

 Jaguares 46...Sunwolves 37.

aucklandlaurie wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:

aucklandlaurie wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:Saw a little of the Highlanders/Cheetahs game. The defence from both teams was pretty shocking, it was played like a pre season friendly with both teams throwing it around.

 If the "little" that you was the last 5 minutes , What did you think?

I got in from work in time to see the Highlanders score first phase from a lineout when down to 14 (50 something on the clock) and then the Cheetahs go side to side and score within about 5 minutes. Missed the end as I had to go an collect my wife from the station. 

The offloading and passing skills were nice but lack of dominant hits on the gain line made it easier for those skills to come to the fore. I presume the last five mins had the Highlanders score late tries to win?

 3 Converted tries in the last 5 minutes. one of the best comebacks since Lazarus of Bethany.

I definitely thought the Cheetahs were safe with ten minutes to go and a 20 point lead...I definitely thought wrong...

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11852587

Any of you nz boys agree? Disagree? Is there support for it?

Personally I would love to see a PI team in the s16

carpet baboon wrote:http://m.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11852587

Any of you nz boys agree? Disagree? Is there support for it?

Personally I would love to see a PI team in the s16

I'd love to see it. Sadly financially it's a non-starter.

One option for "improving" the horribly unwieldy tournament structure currently would've been to stay at Super 18, axing the Southern Kings, and moving Japan to the Aussie conference, and adding a PI team to the NZ conference. 3 conferences of 6, each guaranteed 1 playoff berth of the 8, could be made to work

Home and away games in the conference = 10 rounds. Add in 2 games away to other conferences, and 2 at home makes 18 (vs 16 now). On the downside that's 4 weeks on tour to the Pacific for the SA teams which they'd hate. And it doesn't help the Aussie lack of depth (unless you replaced the Rebels with a 2nd PI team maybe).

carpet baboon wrote:http://m.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11852587

Any of you nz boys agree? Disagree? Is there support for it?

Personally I would love to see a PI team in the s16

 Of course we would all love to see it, and that includes the massive Samoan rugby community in New Zealand.

 Carpet you have to remember Gregor Paul is a Scotsman not a Kiwi, and he appears to have forgotten to mention things like the lack of infrastructure required to participate in what is a Television competition, he also fails to demonstrate how the circumstances have changed since Samoa was last in the competition , be it under another name.

 To paraphrase: I disagree with the Article, but would love to see it happen but sometimes reality dictates other outcomes.

aucklandlaurie wrote:

carpet baboon wrote:http://m.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11852587

Any of you nz boys agree? Disagree? Is there support for it?

Personally I would love to see a PI team in the s16

 Of course we would all love to see it, and that includes the massive Samoan rugby community in New Zealand.

 Carpet you have to remember Gregor Paul is a Scotsman not a Kiwi, and he appears to have forgotten to mention things like the lack of infrastructure required to participate in what is a Television competition, he also fails to demonstrate how the circumstances have changed since Samoa was last in the competition , be it under another name.

 To paraphrase: I disagree with the Article, but would love to see it happen but sometimes reality dictates other outcomes.

To be clear I know very little about the super rugby set up and even less about what's going on in the PI. That's why I was asking, wanted to know more of the specifics as the article was a little light on details

Last nights results;

 In Canberra the Lions went passed the Brumbies 13...6.

 At Eden Park The Blues scored 8 tries to put away the Cheetahs 50...32, trouble is its now off to South Africa next week.

Crusaders kept the 'Canes tryless in Christchurch this morning, winning 20-12.

In the Aussie clash of the sheite-uns in Melbourne the dead-men-walking lost 24-29 to the Reds.

And after a red card each way for shoulder-to-head contact the Highlanders beat the Bulls on the high veldt 17-10.

Lastly the Kings eked out a 35-32 home win over the Sharks

aucklandlaurie wrote:Last nights results;

 In Canberra the Lions went passed the Brumbies 13...6.

 At Eden Park The Blues scored 8 tries to put away the Cheetahs 50...32, trouble is its now off to South Africa next week.

Lions are in SA for the rest of the regular season - that win yesterday could put them in top qualifier spot, unless the Crusaders can somehow stay unbeaten - and they still have to play the Chiefs & 'Canes away

So how are the NZ teams looking for their games against the lions?

I haven't watched SR this season for the first time in years, but based on reports and past seasons form they should be able to beat the touring side the lions will put out shouldnt they?

yappysnap wrote:So how are the NZ teams looking for their games against the lions?

I haven't watched SR this season for the first time in years, but based on reports and past seasons form they should be able to beat the touring side the lions will put out shouldnt they?

Crusaders and Blues will be at full strength including their ABs - I'd expect the Crusaders to win that. Blues could win, odds are they'll be out of the playoff running by then so they'll throw everything into the game.

Overall, right now if I was picking 8 (non-international) teams to represent Earth in the Solar System Champions' League I'd take the Crusaders, Hurricanes, Saracens, (Waikato) Chiefs, Highlanders, Clermont, & Golden Lions. In that order.

Is anyone worried about how uncompetitive a lot of the games have been this year? Almost every game it seems the NZ teams are putting 50 on the others. A huge amount of tries seem to come from lightning counters. It feels like this shift to counter-attacking is something the NZ teams have been doing for at least 6-7 years, probably more like a decade, and none of the Aussies and Saffas seem to be able to work out how to challenge it.

The ARU must be sitting rather uncomfortably. A proud sporting nation being savaged week in week out and particularly against the Kiwis. Doesn't get much worse and it won't be bringing in the next generation.

The Crusaders have forgotten how to lose this season. They seem to be a better team now without their world class names and we'll known DOR. Who'd have thought they'd be more competitive without McCaw and Carter?

Hood83 wrote:Is anyone worried about how uncompetitive a lot of the games have been this year? Almost every game it seems the NZ teams are putting 50 on the others. A huge amount of tries seem to come from lightning counters. It feels like this shift to counter-attacking is something the NZ teams have been doing for at least 6-7 years, probably more like a decade, and none of the Aussies and Saffas seem to be able to work out how to challenge it.

The Saffas seem to struggle to maintain the other aspects of their game as soon as they try the 'counter-attacking' stuff. The Cheetahs have managed to score tries aplenty, even against top NZ teams, but they have no effective defence whatsoever. The stormers have shown counter-attacking flair, but they can't seem to focus on that and set-piece domination at the same time. The Sharks (and to a lesser degree the Lions) have all the right intentions but just can't execute properly....in short, the more the Saffa teams try to match NZ teams at NZ-style rugby, the less capable they seem to be in exploiting traditional SA strengths.

And Aussie rugby...who knows...nothing seems to be working for them...

Mr Fishpaste wrote:

Hood83 wrote:Is anyone worried about how uncompetitive a lot of the games have been this year? Almost every game it seems the NZ teams are putting 50 on the others. A huge amount of tries seem to come from lightning counters. It feels like this shift to counter-attacking is something the NZ teams have been doing for at least 6-7 years, probably more like a decade, and none of the Aussies and Saffas seem to be able to work out how to challenge it.

The Saffas seem to struggle to maintain the other aspects of their game as soon as they try the 'counter-attacking' stuff. The Cheetahs have managed to score tries aplenty, even against top NZ teams, but they have no effective defence whatsoever. The stormers have shown counter-attacking flair, but they can't seem to focus on that and set-piece domination at the same time. The Sharks (and to a lesser degree the Lions) have all the right intentions but just can't execute properly....in short, the more the Saffa teams try to match NZ teams at NZ-style rugby, the less capable they seem to be in exploiting traditional SA strengths.

And Aussie rugby...who knows...nothing seems to be working for them...

I've not seen too much of them but it seems the Golden Lions are the closest team to getting the balance right. Their pack seems much more mobile though and less focused on brute force than I'd associate with SA teams. It feels to me like part of the problem is they aren't producing big enough backs. Those with the pace to counter seem about 10kg lighter, minimum, than the NZ equivalents. Every time a NZ team breaks from a turnover I think "try" because they seem to be able to go over or around their opposite man.

With 4 rounds to go, here's a look at the run-ins for the contenders (& the odd pretender)

Based on the below Quarter finals would look like
QF1: Seed 1 Lions/Crusaders vs Seed 8 Sharks
QF2: Seed 2 Crusaders/Lions vs Seed 7 Highlanders
QF3: Seed 3 Stormers vs Seed 6 Chiefs
QF4: Seed 4 Brumbies vs Seed 5 Hurricanes


SF1: Highest remaining seed vs 4th remaining seed
SF2: 2nd remaining seed vs 3rd remaining seed

Final is hosted by the Highest remaining seed


CRUSADERS - Played 12 Won 12 Lost 0 - 54 points
Maximum Possible Points - 69
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 27 May vs. Rebels @ AAMI Park, Melbourne
•Saturday 3 June vs. Highlanders @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch
•Saturday 15 July vs. Hurricanes @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Should pick up 5 points vs the Dead Men Walking, and would expect to beat the Highlanders at home given the Southern Men's injured list. It won't be easy mind, and winning in Wellington post-Lions tour will be tough. Likely to finish on 64, with 67 (winning in Wgtn with no TBP) & 61 (LBP losses to both NZ sides) the next most likely


GOLDEN LIONS - Played 12 Won 11 Lost 1 - 51 points
Maximum Possible Points - 66
Remaining Matches:
•Kings (H)
•Sunwolves (H)
•Sharks (A)

The Lions have the luxury of avoiding NZ teams in the regular season, and will fancy picking up TBP wins vs the Kings and Sunwolves. Sharks away is a potential banana skin though. Likely to finish on 62 or 65 points depending on the result in Durban. The latter ought to be good enough for a home final if they make it that far.

STORMERS
Played 11 Won 7 Lost 4 - 30 points
Maximum Possible Points - 50
Remaining Matches:
•Sharks (A)
•Cheetahs (A)
•Sunwolves (H)
•Bulls (A)

The only non-NZ team to beat an NZ side this year - and they've done it twice. They have a 15 point lead over the Bulls, but can't catch the Crusaders or Lions so 3rd place looks like their lot.

Australia: - Heaven only knows. Brumbies have a 4 point buffer at the top of the conference over the Waratahs, 8 points less than the worst NZ side (stupid conference system). They won't be getting a 2nd team in the playoffs though, and the conf. winner will be 4th seed (stupid conference system)


HURRICANES - Played 11 Won 9 Lost 2 - 43 points
Maximum Possible Points - 63
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 27 May vs. Bulls @ Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
•Saturday 3 June vs. Force @ nib Stadium, Perth
•Friday 9 June vs. Chiefs @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington
•Saturday 15 July vs. Crusaders @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Would hope to pick up TBP wins on tour given their form, though the Crusaders showed how to beat them 2 weeks ago. Ought to beat the Chiefs at home, and will be marginal favourites at home to the Crusaders. Could finish on anywhere between 54-61 and should land the top Wildcard playoff spot


CHIEFS - Played 11 Won 9 Lost 2 - 43 points
Maximum Possible Points - 63
Remaining Matches:
•Friday 26 May vs. Blues @ Eden Park, Auckland
•Saturday 3 June vs. Waratahs @ FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
•Friday 9 June vs. Hurricanes @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington
•Saturday 15 July vs. Brumbies @ FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton

The Blues haven't beaten another NZ side this year, so will have a lot of pride to play for this week, and concussions means the Chiefs are looking very light on fit midfielders. Cowbells will be clanging vs the 2 Aussie sides, though the game in Wellington looks very tough. Likely to finish on 55-59 for the 2nd Wildcard


HIGHLANDERS - Played 12 Won 9 Lost 3 - 41 points
Maximum Possible Points - 56
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 27 May vs. Waratahs @ Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
•Saturday 3 June vs. Crusaders @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch
•Friday 14 July vs. Reds @ Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

2 TBP wins over the Aussies sandwiching a loss in Chch ought to be worth 51-52 points & 3rd Wildcard

SHARKS- Played 12 Won 8 Drawn 1 Lost 3 - 38 points
Maximum Possible Points - 53
Remaining Matches:
•Stormers (H)
•Cheetahs (A)
•Lions (H)
Barring an Argentine miracle the Sharks have the African Wildcard spot sewn up, finishing on 44-47 points for 8th place

Hood83 wrote:

I've not seen too much of them but it seems the Golden Lions are the closest team to getting the balance right. Their pack seems much more mobile though and less focused on brute force than I'd associate with SA teams. It feels to me like part of the problem is they aren't producing big enough backs. Those with the pace to counter seem about 10kg lighter, minimum, than the NZ equivalents. Every time a NZ team breaks from a turnover I think "try" because they seem to be able to go over or around their opposite man.

The Sharks also have a potentially well balanced team: they have a big and powerful pack that has shown its ability to dominate up front; they also have some fast and creative backs, with some nice linking loose forwards...the problem is that they're so woefully inconsistent. When the backs are having a good day the forwards are off colour etc.

As far as the difference between NZ and SA teams: I don't thinks it's entirely about size - there are some big SA backs. I think it's more the fact that the NZ players seem much more alert to their options when they make a break: they know where their support runners are. They seem to make much better decisions off the cuff. The Saffas tend to either put their ears back and just go for the try or attempt to do something fancy, just because they feel they ought to, even when a simple option would be better. The Saffas when they try to play the fast counter-attacking/breakthrough rugby strike me as classical musicians who are trying to play jazz: you know they've got skills they just don't quite look comfortable or coordinated once they have to start improvising....sometimes you might have one player who makes a break, but the rest don't seem to know quite what to do to support him.

16-all draw in the Bombay Hills' derby at a sodden Eden Park. Piers Francis missed a penalty in the last 10 minutes to end any chance of the Jafas making the semi finals. A draw also hits the Mooloos' chances of avoiding a trip to Africa in the playoffs

Watching the red's - Force game. Really thought Cooper had scored the try there, harsh decision but the Force have taken their opportunities and lead 5 - 13. Force going for a hat-trick of wins over the Reds.

Great start to the second half for the reds.

5 tries in the last 4 games for Steven Moore

Great TBP win for the Force, takes them above the Red's now.

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:16-all draw in the Bombay Hills' derby at a sodden Eden Park. Piers Francis missed a penalty in the last 10 minutes to end any chance of the Jafas making the semi finals. A draw also hits the Mooloos' chances of avoiding a trip to Africa in the playoffs

 Sadly it also meant that the Blues have not had one victory over any other New Zealand franchise this season.

Results from the weekend
Blues 16 v Chiefs 16
Reds 26 v Force 40
Sunwolves 7 v Cheetahs 47
Highlanders 44 v Waratahs 28
Rebels 19 v Crusaders 41
Bulls 20 v Hurricanes 34
Sharks 22 v Stormers 10
Jaguares 15 v Brumbies 39
Lions 54 Kings 10

The Brumbies' win in Argentina (coupled with the 'Tahs losing in Dunedin due to inferior bench strength and Dean Mumm earning himself a yellow for stupidity) means they're 9 points clear in the Aussie conference with 3 games left, and should wrap up the conference winner spot when they beat the Rebels this weekend (the Brumbies are average, but the Rebels would get a run for their money from Zebre). It's still theoretically possible for the 'Tahs, Reds or Force to pass them, but they all play NZ teams this weekend ... - and NZ teams are still unbeaten vs Aussie ones this year after 20-something games.


The Crusaders and Lions both picked up BP wins, meaning they're still in the inside running for top overall qualifier - Crusaders will likely need to win their last 2 games (home vs Highlanders, away vs Hurricanes) to get the inside running on hosting the final. Lions have already won their conference, Crusaders secure the NZ conference if they were to get a TBP win this weekend. Elsewhere, the Stormers have won Africa 1, and the Sharks are guaranteed the African playoff wildcard berth.

With 3 rounds to go, here's a look at the run-ins for the contenders (& the odd pretender)

Based on the below Quarter finals would look like
QF1: Seed 1 Lions/Crusaders vs Seed 8 Sharks/Highlanders
QF2: Seed 2 Crusaders/Lions vs Seed 7 Highlanders/Sharks
QF3: Seed 3 Stormers vs Seed 6 Chiefs
QF4: Seed 4 Brumbies vs Seed 5 Hurricanes


SF1: Highest remaining seed vs 4th remaining seed
SF2: 2nd remaining seed vs 3rd remaining seed

Final is hosted by the Highest remaining seed


CRUSADERS - Played 13 Won 13 Lost 0 - 59 points
Maximum Possible Points - 69
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 3 June vs. Highlanders @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch
•Saturday 15 July vs. Hurricanes @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Would expect to beat the Highlanders at home. It won't be easy mind, and winning in Wellington post-Lions tour will be tough. Likely to finish on 64, with 67 (winning in Wgtn with no TBP) & 61 (LBP losses to both NZ sides) the next most likely


GOLDEN LIONS - Played 13 Won 12 Lost 1 - 56 points
Maximum Possible Points - 66
Remaining Matches:
•Sunwolves (H)
•Sharks (A)

The Lions have the luxury of avoiding NZ teams in the regular season, and will fancy picking up TBP wins vs the Kings and Sunwolves. Sharks away is a potential banana skin though. Likely to finish on 62 or 65 points depending on the result in Durban. The latter ought to be good enough for a home final if they make it that far.

STORMERS
Played 12 Won 7 Lost 5 - 30 points
Maximum Possible Points - 45
Remaining Matches:
•Cheetahs (A)
•Sunwolves (H)
•Bulls (A)

The only non-NZ team to beat an NZ side this year - and they've done it twice. They have a 15 point lead over the Bulls, but can't catch the Crusaders or Lions so 3rd place looks like their lot, though they're now only 2 points clear of the Brumbies

BRUMBIES
Played 12 Won 5 Lost 7 - 28 points
Maximum Possible Points - 43
Remaining Matches:
•Rebels (H)
•Reds (A)
•Chiefs (A)

Brumbies have a 9 point buffer at the top of the conference over the Waratahs, 5 points less than the worst NZ side (stupid conference system), with a couple of easy games in their last 3. Could overhaul the Stormers for 3rd spot, but unlikely given they finish the regular season in Hamilton


HURRICANES - Played 12 Won 10 Lost 2 - 48 points
Maximum Possible Points - 63
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 3 June vs. Force @ nib Stadium, Perth
•Friday 9 June vs. Chiefs @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington
•Saturday 15 July vs. Crusaders @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Would hope to pick up a TBP win in Perth given their form, though the Crusaders showed how to beat them 3 weeks ago. Ought to beat the Chiefs at home, and will be marginal favourites at home to the Crusaders. Could finish on anywhere between 54-61 and should land the top Wildcard playoff spot


CHIEFS - Played 12 Won 9 Lost 2 - 45 points
Maximum Possible Points - 60
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 3 June vs. Waratahs @ FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
•Friday 9 June vs. Hurricanes @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington
•Saturday 15 July vs. Brumbies @ FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton

Concussions means the Chiefs are still looking light on fit midfielders, which may have cost them the win in Auckland. Cowbells will be clanging vs the 2 Aussie sides, though the game in Wellington looks very tough. Likely to finish on 55-58 for the 2nd Wildcard


HIGHLANDERS - Played 13 Won 10 Lost 3 - 45 points
Maximum Possible Points - 55
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 3 June vs. Crusaders @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch
•Friday 14 July vs. Reds @ Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

A tough game in Chch this weekend with a nice easy game vs the Reds post-Lions to finish. 3rd Wildcard spot sewn up, could still push the Chiefs/Hurricanes for an easier QF spot

SHARKS- Played 13 Won 9 Drawn 1 Lost 3 - 43 points
Maximum Possible Points - 53
Remaining Matches:
•Cheetahs (A)
•Lions (H)
The Sharks have the African Wildcard spot sewn up, finishing on 48-52 points for 7th/8th place. Final round vs the Lions shaping up as an important match

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:With 3 rounds to go, here's a look at the run-ins for the contenders (& the odd pretender)

Based on the below Quarter finals would look like
QF1: Seed 1 Lions/Crusaders vs Seed 8 Sharks/Highlanders
QF2: Seed 2 Crusaders/Lions vs Seed 7 Highlanders/Sharks
QF3: Seed 3 Stormers vs Seed 6 Chiefs
QF4: Seed 4 Brumbies vs Seed 5 Hurricanes


SF1: Highest remaining seed vs 4th remaining seed
SF2: 2nd remaining seed vs 3rd remaining seed

Final is hosted by the Highest remaining seed


CRUSADERS - Played 13 Won 13 Lost 0 - 59 points
Maximum Possible Points - 69
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 3 June vs. Highlanders @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch
•Saturday 15 July vs. Hurricanes @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Would expect to beat the Highlanders at home. It won't be easy mind, and winning in Wellington post-Lions tour will be tough. Likely to finish on 64, with 67 (winning in Wgtn with no TBP) & 61 (LBP losses to both NZ sides) the next most likely


GOLDEN LIONS - Played 13 Won 12 Lost 1 - 56 points
Maximum Possible Points - 66
Remaining Matches:
•Sunwolves (H)
•Sharks (A)

The Lions have the luxury of avoiding NZ teams in the regular season, and will fancy picking up TBP wins vs the Kings and Sunwolves. Sharks away is a potential banana skin though. Likely to finish on 62 or 65 points depending on the result in Durban. The latter ought to be good enough for a home final if they make it that far.

STORMERS
Played 12 Won 7 Lost 5 - 30 points
Maximum Possible Points - 45
Remaining Matches:
•Cheetahs (A)
•Sunwolves (H)
•Bulls (A)

The only non-NZ team to beat an NZ side this year - and they've done it twice. They have a 15 point lead over the Bulls, but can't catch the Crusaders or Lions so 3rd place looks like their lot, though they're now only 2 points clear of the Brumbies

BRUMBIES
Played 12 Won 5 Lost 7 - 28 points
Maximum Possible Points - 43
Remaining Matches:
•Rebels (H)
•Reds (A)
•Chiefs (A)

Brumbies have a 9 point buffer at the top of the conference over the Waratahs, 5 points less than the worst NZ side (stupid conference system), with a couple of easy games in their last 3. Could overhaul the Stormers for 3rd spot, but unlikely given they finish the regular season in Hamilton


HURRICANES - Played 12 Won 10 Lost 2 - 48 points
Maximum Possible Points - 63
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 3 June vs. Force @ nib Stadium, Perth
•Friday 9 June vs. Chiefs @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington
•Saturday 15 July vs. Crusaders @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Would hope to pick up a TBP win in Perth given their form, though the Crusaders showed how to beat them 3 weeks ago. Ought to beat the Chiefs at home, and will be marginal favourites at home to the Crusaders. Could finish on anywhere between 54-61 and should land the top Wildcard playoff spot


CHIEFS - Played 12 Won 9 Lost 2 - 45 points
Maximum Possible Points - 60
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 3 June vs. Waratahs @ FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
•Friday 9 June vs. Hurricanes @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington
•Saturday 15 July vs. Brumbies @ FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton

Concussions means the Chiefs are still looking light on fit midfielders, which may have cost them the win in Auckland. Cowbells will be clanging vs the 2 Aussie sides, though the game in Wellington looks very tough. Likely to finish on 55-58 for the 2nd Wildcard


HIGHLANDERS - Played 13 Won 10 Lost 3 - 45 points
Maximum Possible Points - 55
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 3 June vs. Crusaders @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch
•Friday 14 July vs. Reds @ Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

A tough game in Chch this weekend with a nice easy game vs the Reds post-Lions to finish. 3rd Wildcard spot sewn up, could still push the Chiefs/Hurricanes for an easier QF spot

SHARKS- Played 13 Won 9 Drawn 1 Lost 3 - 43 points
Maximum Possible Points - 53
Remaining Matches:
•Cheetahs (A)
•Lions (H)
The Sharks have the African Wildcard spot sewn up, finishing on 48-52 points for 7th/8th place. Final round vs the Lions shaping up as an important match

And all this highlights the ridiculousness of the conference system. The Stormers and Brumbies get home QFs even though they have the fewest log point of all the teams in the top 8 (the fewest by some margin!)

Blues 34-29 Reds this morning to make the trans-Tasman score 21-0 this season. Umaga subbed off a lot of his key players straight after half time, presumably with an eye on the Lions mid week.

That result puts the Reds officially out of the running for the playoffs

It took a 45 metre, 83rd minute drop goal from Mitch Hunt (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWE59mfJbL0 ) for the Crusaders to edge the Highlanders 25-22 in a match notable for possibly costing Steve Hansen the services of Ben Smith (concussion) and Ryan Crotty (rib cartilage).

Elsewhere the Brumbies wrapped up the Aussie conference, smashing the hapless Rebels 32-3, while the Chiefs and Hurricanes extended the NZ vs Aus winning record out to 22-0.


Updated run-in:

With 3 rounds to go, here's a look at the run-ins for the contenders (& the odd pretender)

Based on the below Quarter finals would look like
QF1: Seed 1 Lions/Crusaders vs Seed 8 Sharks/Highlanders
QF2: Seed 2 Crusaders/Lions vs Seed 7 Highlanders/Sharks
QF3: Seed 3 Stormers vs Seed 6 Chiefs
QF4: Seed 4 Brumbies vs Seed 5 Hurricanes


SF1: Highest remaining seed vs 4th remaining seed
SF2: 2nd remaining seed vs 3rd remaining seed

Final is hosted by the Highest remaining seed


CRUSADERS - Played 14 Won 14 Lost 0 - 63 points
Maximum Possible Points - 68
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 15 July vs. Hurricanes @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Winning in Wellington post-Lions tour will be tough. Likely to finish on 64, with 67 (winning in Wgtn with no TBP) & 61 (LBP losses to both NZ sides) the next most likely


GOLDEN LIONS - Played 13 Won 12 Lost 1 - 56 points
Maximum Possible Points - 66
Remaining Matches:
•Sunwolves (H)
•Sharks (A)

The Lions have the luxury of avoiding NZ teams in the regular season, and will fancy picking up a TBP win vs Sunwolves. Sharks away is a potential banana skin though. Likely to finish on 62 or 65 points depending on the result in Durban. The latter ought to be good enough for them to earn a home final if they make it that far.

STORMERS
Played 12 Won 7 Lost 5 - 30 points
Maximum Possible Points - 45
Remaining Matches:
•Cheetahs (A)
•Sunwolves (H)
•Bulls (A)

The only non-NZ team to beat an NZ side this year - and they've done it twice. They have a 15 point lead over the Bulls, but can't catch the Crusaders or Lions so 3rd place looks like their lot, though they're now 3 points behind the Brumbies, albeit with a game in hand

BRUMBIES
Played 13 Won 6 Lost 7 - 33 points
Maximum Possible Points - 43
Remaining Matches:
•Reds (A)
•Chiefs (A)

Brumbies have secured the Aussie Conference winner berth, despite sitting 4 points behind the worst NZ side (stupid conference system), with a potentially easy game vs the woeful Reds next up. Could pip the Stormers for 3rd spot, but unlikely given they finish the regular season in Hamilton


HURRICANES - Played 13 Won 11 Lost 2 - 53 points
Maximum Possible Points - 63
Remaining Matches:
•Friday 9 June vs. Chiefs @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington
•Saturday 15 July vs. Crusaders @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Will be favourites to beat the Chiefs at home, and will be marginal favourites at home to the Crusaders. Could finish on anywhere between 54-61 and should land the top Wildcard playoff spot. Could theoretically finish level on points with the Crusaders (they're 10 behind with 2 games left), however number of wins is the tiebreaker so Crusaders have secured the NZ conference.

CHIEFS - Played 13 Won 10 Lost 2 - 49 points
Maximum Possible Points - 59
Remaining Matches:
•Friday 9 June vs. Hurricanes @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington
•Saturday 15 July vs. Brumbies @ FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton

Just missed out on a TBP vs the Waratahs at the weekend, meaning they'll likely need to win in Wellington to edge the Hurricanes for top wildcard. Likely to finish on 55-58 for the 2nd Wildcard


HIGHLANDERS - Played 14 Won 10 Lost 4 - 46 points
Maximum Possible Points - 51
Remaining Matches:
•Friday 14 July vs. Reds @ Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

The southern men have a nice easy game vs the Reds post-Lions to finish. 3rd Wildcard spot is almost sewn up (they're 3 points ahead of the Sharks who have a game in hand), and they could still push the Chiefs for an easier QF spot.

SHARKS- Played 13 Won 9 Drawn 1 Lost 3 - 43 points
Maximum Possible Points - 53
Remaining Matches:
•Cheetahs (A)
•Lions (H)
The Sharks have the African Wildcard spot sewn up, finishing on 48-52 points for 7th/8th place. Final round vs the Lions shaping up as an important match

Chiefs edge the 'Canes 17-14 in a cliffhanger at the Cake Tin - Cruden went off at half time though, which may have AB's implications.

Updated run-in:

Based on the below Quarter finals would look like
QF1: Seed 1 Lions/Crusaders vs Seed 8 Sharks/Highlanders
QF2: Seed 2 Crusaders/Lions vs Seed 7 Highlanders/Sharks
QF3: Seed 3 Stormers vs Seed 6 Chiefs/Hurricanes
QF4: Seed 4 Brumbies vs Seed 5 Hurricanes/Chiefs


SF1: Highest remaining seed vs 4th remaining seed
SF2: 2nd remaining seed vs 3rd remaining seed

Final is hosted by the Highest remaining seed


CRUSADERS - Played 14 Won 14 Lost 0 - 63 points
Maximum Possible Points - 68
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 15 July vs. Hurricanes @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Winning in Wellington post-Lions tour will be tough. Likely to finish on 64, with 67 (winning in Wgtn with no TBP) & 61 (LBP losses to both NZ sides) the next most likely


GOLDEN LIONS - Played 13 Won 12 Lost 1 - 56 points
Maximum Possible Points - 66
Remaining Matches:
•Sunwolves (H)
•Sharks (A)

The Lions have the luxury of avoiding NZ teams in the regular season, and will fancy picking up a TBP win vs Sunwolves. Sharks away is a potential banana skin though. Likely to finish on 62 or 65 points depending on the result in Durban. The latter ought to be good enough for them to earn a home final if they make it that far.

STORMERS
Played 12 Won 7 Lost 5 - 30 points
Maximum Possible Points - 45
Remaining Matches:
•Cheetahs (A)
•Sunwolves (H)
•Bulls (A)

The only non-NZ team to beat an NZ side this year - and they've done it twice. They have a 15 point lead over the Bulls, but can't catch the Crusaders or Lions so 3rd place looks like their lot, though they're now 3 points behind the Brumbies, albeit with a game in hand

BRUMBIES
Played 13 Won 6 Lost 7 - 33 points
Maximum Possible Points - 43
Remaining Matches:
•Reds (A)
•Chiefs (A)

Brumbies have secured the Aussie Conference winner berth, despite sitting 4 points behind the worst NZ side (stupid conference system), with a potentially easy game vs the woeful Reds next up. Could pip the Stormers for 3rd spot, but unlikely given they finish the regular season in Hamilton


HURRICANES - Played 14 Won 11 Lost 3 - 54 points
Maximum Possible Points - 59
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 15 July vs. Crusaders @ Westpac Stadium, Wellington

Narrowly lost to the Chiefs at home so it's anyone's game at home to the Crusaders in the last round. It's now a tight battle with the Chiefs for the top Wildcard playoff spot - Canes have a 1 point advantage, and have the edge in tries scored & PD, but have the harder final match.

CHIEFS - Played 14 Won 11 Lost 2 - 53 points
Maximum Possible Points - 58
Remaining Matches:
•Saturday 15 July vs. Brumbies @ FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton

Will back themselves to beat the Brumbies, but will likely need some help from the Crusaders in Wellington to secure top Wildcard spot.

HIGHLANDERS - Played 14 Won 10 Lost 4 - 46 points
Maximum Possible Points - 51
Remaining Matches:
•Friday 14 July vs. Reds @ Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

The southern men have a nice easy game vs the Reds post-Lions to finish. 3rd Wildcard spot is almost sewn up (they're 3 points ahead of the Sharks who have a game in hand), and they could still push the Chiefs for an easier QF spot.

SHARKS- Played 13 Won 9 Drawn 1 Lost 3 - 43 points
Maximum Possible Points - 53
Remaining Matches:
•Cheetahs (A)
•Lions (H)
The Sharks have the African Wildcard spot sewn up, finishing on 48-52 points for 7th/8th place. Final round vs the Lions shaping up as an important match

Highlanders finish their regular season with a 40-17 win over the Reds in Dunedin, guaranteeing them 7th spot, and a trip to either Christchurch or Pretoria in the Quarters.

They managed 11 wins out of 15, better than the Stormers & Brumbies (9 & 6 wins with 1 to play respectively - though the Brumbies are putting the reserves out for their dead rubber in Hamilton) who get home QFs due to winning their conferences.

Is the system changing again next season Pete? It seems that no matter what way it's broken down it's going to be flawed as the NZ teams are just so much better.

yappysnap wrote:Is the system changing again next season Pete? It seems that no matter what way it's broken down it's going to be flawed as the NZ teams are just so much better.

All 3 conference winners will be guaranteed a playoff spot - I'm not sure about runners up. Or if they're going back to 6 team playoffs.

This year the 2 (4-team) African conferences were guaranteed 3 spots, with Australasia getting 5

Rebels score an 80th minute try but still fall short in Melbourne, losing 29-32 to the Jaguares. That guarantees the Jaguares 3rd place in the Africa2 conference, and 4th overall spot in the African group (Africa 2 didn't have to play any NZ sides this year mind, while AF1 didn't play any Aussies)

yappysnap wrote:Is the system changing again next season Pete? It seems that no matter what way it's broken down it's going to be flawed as the NZ teams are just so much better.

I read this morning that the Aussies have lost 59 Super Rugby players overseas in the last 19 months. That's painful. Condensing down to 4 teams may help a bit, but it's hard to see them coming back quickly

No way the Australians can get rid of the Force over the Rebels. Force are thrashing the Waratahs to get their 6th win of the season compared to the Rebels 1... It's a no brainer.

Great win by the Hurricanes over the Crusaders earlier, considering their pack was smashed backwards constantly