PGA Tour: How Good Can Dustin Johnson Be?: Notes from the Ballwasher

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1).Dustin wins again and stretches his lead at the top of the World Rankings; over the past few weeks, the Top 6 in the rankings (DJ, Day, Rory, Matsuyama, Spieth, Stenson) have separated themselves by a distance from #7, and now Dustin has separated himself from the next five by about the same amount. Does this reflect his supremacy or is the impact of his success, combined with Day & McIlroy being laid low, a little exaggerated?
Probably a bit of both, so let's have a closer look at just what DJ has been up to, how he's separated himself from "the field".

2).Johnson was playing the 18th, clinging to a one-stroke lead, when he produced what he called his best shot of the tournament from a fairway bunker to the middle of the green, 18ft from the hole. So much for the assertion in these notes a fortnight ago that he hasn't won many close finishes. (And he has won all three of his transcendantly important Ryder Cup singles matches.)
Now he's won four World Golf Championships, all in the last four years. The WGC win league table now looks like this:
18: Woods
4: Johnson
3: Ogilvy
2: Clarke, Day, Els, Mahan, McIlroy, Mickelson, Poulter, Scott.

3).Perhaps we should have seen this coming, after all the greens were poa annua grass (which I for one wasn't aware of beforehand). For the most part, the Tour only sees poa annua at Torrey Pines, Riviera and Pebble Beach, and look at who was leading the field:
1st: Johnson, winner also at Pebble Beach (twice) and a fortnight ago at Riviera.
T3: Rahm, winner at Torrey Pines.
T5: Pieters, winner of NCAA Championship @ Riviera, and 2nd there two weeks ago.
T7: Snedeker, winner twice at Pebble, twice at Torrey Pines.
T7: Mickelson, winner 4 times at Pebble Beach, twice at Riviera and 3 times at Torrey Pines.
There's a pattern there somewhere!

BUT: In Mexico, Johnson missed 16 putts during the week from inside ten feet - which tied the most on Tour in the last ten years.

4).Now that we've seen coverage of the Chapultepec course for four rounds, should we have expected some of the Tour's "navigators" to have done better, or was it perfectly reasonable to expect the "bombers" to have their way with it? Among the Top Ten finishers, only Snedeker could be said to be an average length hitter. And that suggests Johnson, in particular, was "nails" with his irons as well as his usual length - such as a 300+-yard 2-iron.

5).So what will Dustin do now? Can't fancy him for the Match-Play, but he must be in the top three contenders at Augusta where he's quietly finished 6th and 4th the past two years. Imagine he'll be quiet after that until Erin Hills and the US Open. There's another course most of us don't know, and nor do most of the pros. That didn't bother DJ at Chambers Bay so can quite easily see him as first among equals for the US Open.
Then his schedule will start to get interesting:
Birkdale: Didn't play in 2008, but then nor did most in the field. 15th or better in 5 of his last 7 Opens.
Glen Abbey: Wayne Gretzky's home tournament, and Johnson was T2 last year.
Bridgestone: Won last year.
PGA Championship at Quail Hollow: This is almost a home game, having grown up 90 miles south. Doesn't have a good record there, but was 36-hole leader in 2010.
FedEx Play-Offs: He has one Barclays and 2 x Beemers under his belt so he'll presumably be motivated to excel. Again.

Hopefully Paulina's pregnancy won't get too much in his way and we'll see just how good Dustin Johnson can be.

6).It seems the Chapultepec golf course received rave reviews, but it's just the sort of somewhat "fiddly" course that many Tour pros normally avoid. The scores seemed to improve, with notable exceptions of course, as the week went on and one would expect lower scores next time around. But a terrific venue regardless.
For spectators at least, Firestone is a boring course for the Bridgestone - how would you reconfigure the dates and venues for the three WGC's (given that the HSBC will stay in the Far East)? I'd still like to see Argentina, Australia and South Africa brought into the mix, perhaps on a rotational basis. And then there's Europe!

7).The Tour needs to do something with the schedule in the pre-Masters run-up. Doug Ferguson describes the predicament here:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/80d7e77abf0c44139cc9c78df78bda81/4-players-could-miss-match-play-detour-masters

Ironically this could suit non-Tour members as they will be under no pressure to play tournaments they don't feel obligated to (e.g. homage to Arnie, etc).
Gawd only knows what the landscape would look like if they re-inserted The Players into March - perhaps they'd go from Riviera to Mexico, then Honda, Valspar, Bay Hill, TPC, Houston, Augusta and shunt the Match Play back to May. 'Course, the calendar is partly responsible with The Masters coming early this year.

8).Fine finishes for Fleetwood and Fisher, great to see Rory eking out a decent result on his return to action, and Hatton gardening out another Top Ten. Fisher is in the Match Play now and a good result will get him a Billy Payne invitation. I always looked at Fish as a terrific ball-striker but with a very iffy short game, especially on Bermuda greens, but his putting was terrific in Mexico. And who knows what to make of Fleetwood's resurgence - in fine form these past six months after 18 months in the doldrums (barely in the owgr Top 200 last summer). How good can Tommy be??!!

9).The Valspar Championship, outside Tampa on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, has a rotten date but looks a wonderful course, so demanding that it perennially ranks among the ten most difficult to par on Tour, and last year yielded the second fewest birdies. Schwartzel is the defending champion and he certainly is overdue for a good tournament.
Stenson has finished in the top 12 the past two years on a course that usually favours "ball strikers", and I fancy Dufner and Ryan Moore for each way interest.
A year ago, I recommended investing in Dufner and DeLaet, doubling up until they paid out. Dufner won the next week, at the Career Builder, while you'd've gone broke following DeLaet - but he has a good Valspar record and seems to be chipping and putting much better. And we're slowly easing in to the Charlie Hoffman season.

10).Luke Donald has won here, and he's joined in this week's field by Kjeldsen who needs a good finish to reach the Match Play. Knox is playing after two terrible weeks, and so is McDowell who should be suited by the course, especially after playing well at "Honda".
Ian Poulter is back and he REALLY needs a good result. It seems a long time ago now that he threw his "just me and Tiger" stink bomb. But you never know, a top few finishes and he might be retorting to all and sundry that it'll be "just me and Dustin".

Do not know about O'Hair and what was bothering him.

What did you have at V's? Manicotti? Last time I was there (this past December) they had someone out watching the cars in the lot the entire night.

Snow = 'bout time!!

Thought Hadwin held it together well, and really good performance from Cantlay. I know Cantlay has been through the ringer, but would be great if at any time he looked like he was enjoying it?

What injury did Can't-lay have?

He had a bad back, Mac.
You can google the details but puligny is right, it obviously affected his ability to smile.
I thought he was a really pasty looking ute; then he took his chapeau off to shake hands and his forehead was even paler. Not what you'd expect from a Californian boy.

Isn't Cantlay the one who saw his best friend (and caddy) killed by a hit and run driver not so long ago ?  That could make it tough to smile on your first return to golf, regardless of the result.

I hadn't heard about that plunky, and yes you are correct. Just had a look and it happened only a month ago.

Although even without suffering the recent death of a close friend I don't really expect players to smile.

I only caught a bit on TV last night, but I heard a lot of conversations between Hadwin and his caddy. I have not noticed it much in other events, are TV companies trying to pick up more on conversations being held or were they just loud and more talkative than others.

I didn't smile a lot at work - but little doubt people knew I enjoyed it!
Can't imagine how bad it is to go through similar circumstances, though few haven't experienced something dire, but as much as anything I just hope he does enjoy it, even in memory of his pal. Anyway, good luck to him. Clearly a very talented fella.

McLaren wrote:I hadn't heard about that plunky, and yes you are correct.  Just had a look and it happened only a month ago.  

Although even without suffering the recent death of a close friend I don't really expect players to smile.

Feb 2016, Mac; sure that would be a traumatic experience for anyone, but he won't help himself by looking miserable thru'out his career.
Must admit, I spent most of my work career smiling; one of the lucky ones I suppose, but I would think golfers, like all sportsman, need to release some positive emotion once in a while.


Plunky, Shotrock, Grumps: Are you guys battening down the hatches? We're getting January in mid-March and difficult to smile through that!

Oops forgot it is 2017.

I don't think I ever smile.

First thing I do in the morning - smile. Get it over with! (I think WC Fields?)

sirbenson wrote:Does anyone realistically think Tiger will play the Masters?

Yes I think he might. But if he does play, he will WD.

All these attempts at rebuilding his swing are in vain. He should have gone back to the old successful swing... even if it meant shortening his career he would have won a few more majors. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

robopz wrote:Kwini... If Hadwin were to win today... It would also postpone or relocate his honeymoon which is scheduled for Masters week...

Is it not really dumb for a golfer to get married in the middle of the season? Maybe there are important non-golfing reasons, but it just seems really bizarre to disrupt your season when you are an "independent contractor".

Kwini

Is that what your house looks like http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39254974

McLaren wrote:Kwini

Is that what your house looks like http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39254974

Not quite Mac,
But I've seen things remarkably like that - don't know if Shotrock remembers the occasion, but the most startling similarity I've spotted was an old (beautiful) church in Downtown UCA that had been ravaged by fire and the water from the Fire Brigade had formed a very similar effect, "startling" because it was such a huge building to be icicled virtually from top to bottom.

Kwin - Don't recall that church event. Old St. John's?

They are saying 15" or so ... looking forward to it actually. (As long as we do not lose power.) The gradual warm up will make this a thing of the past in one week. Might even take Wed off to ski.

I think you guys are being a bit tough on Cantlay! Don't mind his look (or Tiger or Monty's) as much as I do the "gee whiz" Phil plastic smile.

Shotrock wrote:Don't mind his look (or Tiger  or Monty's) as much as I do the "gee whiz" Phil plastic smile.

Or even worse, the Kuchar grinning idiot look.

Harrington looks like there isn't much between the ears either. Looking vacant isn't just an American thing.

Spot on Shotrock, Wasn't that amazing? 1979 when Feb was so brutal?? Must be nearly forty years ago anyway, 35 at least. Made quite the impression on an English country boy as I'd never seen anything like it!

A few days ago our forecast was for about 18 inches but now the "experts" seem to be oscillating between 3-5 and 5-8 so who knows ?!  My January snow shoveling brought on a dose of sciatica so I'm going to wimp out of this one.

kwinigolfer wrote:Plunky, Shotrock, Grumps: Are you guys battening down the hatches? We're getting January in mid-March and difficult to smile through that!

I think this summed up last year's winter: "Winter is coming. All at once, in one weekend"

This year it seems to be more of a Katy Perry song: "You're hot and you're cold...."  6 inches of snow on Friday morning that melted away by late afternoon meaning no shovelling necessary, now that raised a smile.

Even if I wanted to, I know that I won't be going to the office as my bus line has already cancelled service for tomorrow.  I was at the supermarket yesterday and it seemed a lot busier than usual.  I've not seen the latest forecast but last night's said we were in the middle of a very wide band that was stating 10-14 inches of snow.  I won't be smiling if we do get that amount.

Good to see the European Tour baling out the PGA Tourists with strength of field calculations this week.
Despite only five of the Top Ten in the owgr's turning up, there will be a bucketload of owgr points to the winner - 64 pts.

Not only are Rory and Henrik in the field but also:
#11: Noren
#13: Rose
#14: Willett
#15: Casey
#16: Hatton
etc, etc.

For some inexplicable reason, the sponsor has chosen to counter by offering an invitation to Daly, j., an unmitigated failure (from a golfing standpoint anyway) on the Champions Tour.

Casey maybe European, but he is not part of the EuroTour contingent that is "bailing out the PGA Tourists"

API is 2+ Million dollars more than most of the Regular PGATour events. Certainly better than the EuroTour alternative this week, which is no tournament.

GPB wrote:Casey maybe European, but he is not part of the EuroTour contingent that is "bailing out the PGA Tourists"

API is 2+ Million dollars more than most of the Regular PGATour events.  Certainly better than the EuroTour alternative this week, which is no tournament.

I beg to differ - it's our February Medal (yes, in March). 25 - 40 quid on the line, I think Rory is borrowing Tiger's jet as we speak to get the Wednesday practise round in.

Women members to be allowed at Muirfield.
Whatever next?
Hopefully an Open in 2022.

kwinigolfer wrote:Good to see the European Tour baling out the PGA Tourists with strength of field calculations this week.
Despite only five of the Top Ten in the owgr's turning up, there will be a bucketload of owgr points to the winner - 64 pts.

Not only are Rory and Henrik in the field but also:
#11: Noren
#13: Rose
#14: Willett
#15: Casey
#16: Hatton
etc, etc.

For some inexplicable reason, the sponsor has chosen to counter by offering an invitation to Daly, j., an unmitigated failure (from a golfing standpoint anyway) on the Champions Tour.

Always good when princedrac reads our posts:
He reports that, over the past two years, "International" golfers have contributed approx 75% of the Top 50's strength of field at Bay Hill, compared to just 36% five years ago.

PS: Casey is whatever nationality he wants to be, Paul always being Paul.

Interesting ten minutes here w/Matt Fitzpatrick:

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golf-central-blog/podcast-fitzpatrick-mistaken-tigers-ball-boy/

Two take-aways for me:
1).Aims to secure his 2017/18 PGA Tour card this year.

2).Favourite golf course anywhere? Harbour Town, loves the course, loves the island. Me too, Matt, me too!

Always surprised by the animosity towards Casey on here. I can't even think of a particularly negative story involving him,

He's harmless Mac, just a bit of a self obsessed and self important plank.

If Keith Pelley reads that PD post, he might co-sanctioned the API, considering there is no ET event this week.

Roller_Coaster wrote:

GPB wrote:Casey maybe European, but he is not part of the EuroTour contingent that is "bailing out the PGA Tourists"

API is 2+ Million dollars more than most of the Regular PGATour events.  Certainly better than the EuroTour alternative this week, which is no tournament.

I beg to differ - it's our February Medal (yes, in March). 25 - 40 quid on the line, I think Rory is borrowing Tiger's jet as we speak to get the Wednesday practise round in.

You have medals in February? Don't bother with medals at our place in winter

I've played quite a few medals this year. All ran over winter.

Padraig is just after tweeting that he is having neck surgery...damn! He is hoping for a comeback at the Memorial

super_realist wrote:I've played quite a few medals this year. All ran over winter.

Maybe because you play links courses which are in decent condition over winter.

Although don't you have that silly thing where you carry a mat around with you? Surely that makes a comp NQ?

Our place has taken the view that it is better to play "fun" comps over winter which are non-qualifying.

Kwin - Weather has come and gone. Snow, grainy sleet, snow ... heart attack mix, but my latest fitness craze is Orangetheory, so I was up for the task. How are you making out?

Really interesting (to me at least) read in Golf Digest this week about (what else) Augusta National and Augusta Country Club. Talk about overpaying for things.

Not surprised to see all the internationals at Bay Hill. Run up time for Augusta. My money's on Rory once again.

sirbenson wrote:Padraig is just after tweeting that he is having neck surgery...damn! He is hoping for a comeback at the Memorial

He's been threatening that, sirb, since the "West Coast" - Memorial sounds ambitious, no real need for him to push it. No compelling US tournament for him to play unless he wants to qualify for the US Open. Next biggie would be the Irish Open.

Just noticed that there is one more week than usual between the US Open and Birkdale (which he'd obviously want to play); I wonder which one of the four tournaments is sacrificed when the calendar returns to normal?

raycastleunited wrote:

super_realist wrote:I've played quite a few medals this year. All ran over winter.

Maybe because you play links courses which are in decent condition over winter.

Although don't you have that silly thing where you carry a mat around with you? Surely that makes a comp NQ?

Our place has taken the view that it is better to play "fun" comps over winter which are non-qualifying.

No, there are fairway mats for competitions during winter, some temporary tees but it's all reflected in the CSS. All handicap counting.

Shotrock wrote:Kwin - Weather has come and gone. Snow, grainy sleet, snow ... heart attack mix, but my latest fitness craze is Orangetheory, so I was up for the task. How are you making out?

Really interesting (to me at least) read in Golf Digest this week about (what else) Augusta National and Augusta Country Club. Talk about overpaying for things.

Not surprised to see all the internationals at Bay Hill. Run up time for Augusta. My money's on Rory once again.

Yup, my lad said the walk to the Brooklyn subway this morning was miserable, stinging windblown sleet. Just dry snow here, quite cold and not windy yet - blizzard warning until tomorrow evening; just been ploughed in so suppose I'll have to give my shovel a work out. No fitness theory here, just a fullish bottle of Glenmorangie.

Rory just getting warmed up, I prefer Henrik this week!

Yep, Kwini like you said the surgery has been coming and no need to rush back maybe he is still harbouring out hope of qualifyIing for the US Open in the sectional qualifying. Walton Heath is before the Memorial so maybe he intends to play the States sectional qualies

Not great news kwini, Sirb, hopefully he makes a full and speedy recovery..

Hey guys, Is Seamus Power getting any ink over there?

He's not set the world on fire but to have played as well as he has is a pretty strong achievement; not exactly as if he left the web.com with glittering prizes and a can't miss legacy.
Take away a couple of lousy final rounds he'd be well inside the FedEx Top 100; as it is, a good effort in Puerto Rico will help him maintain his pace for a few events for which he won't make the field. Wonder who he's partnering in New Orleans?er

Maybe in Kwini, but not really in the UK.

I've only heard his name on here

He was interviewed after his first round last week at the Sky cart. When he's in the top 25 he will typically get a mention. Sky haven't done any specials on him or anything, but he does get a mention when he plays well. He does get more press in Ireland as is to be expected.

He's doing well and progressing nicely imo, definitely looking more comfortable week by week.

https://www.irishgolfdesk.com/news-files/2017/3/14/harrington-targets-walton-heath-return-after-neck-surgery-us-open-sectional
Looks like Paddy is aiming for Walton Heath then

How could he get a neck injury? That's a random one, even for a golfer.

I think he was trying to lick his elbow.

I actually smiled at that Mac, well done.