When will Roger retake Number 1?

With an expected victory tonight, Roger will be over 2,500 points clear of Andy year to date. He should also clean up Miami in the absence of Murray and probable absence of Novak, extending the gap to 3,500 points over Murray and 4,000 points over Novak. It's then likely to be only a matter of time before he gets back to Number 1.

It's unlikely to happen by RG. He'd basically need to win everything on the clay and Andy do poorly. However, Wimbledon is a possibility. I can see a scenario whereby Andy loses in the SF and Fed takes the title to get back to Number 1. If not, the US Open is an option but it's a near certainty to happen in the autumn season, when Andy defends every point going and Fed defends 0 points.

I just have a feeling he will take it back at the US Open, winning his third slam of the year in the process. What do others think?

I'm a Federer fan too, but could this be slightly too optimistic? ;-)

But indeed it's not a crazy idea anymore, which it would have been for the past 4-5 years. IIRC he had a theoretical chance to finish YE #1 some years back, but Djokovic held firm.

If he captures the title today and has a reasonable clay season, he might have a chance! Wimbledon, Cincinnati, the US Open & WTF are all events where he tends to do well.

Sorry but definitely needs an option in there like - Not At All.

Yes, I personally think Not at All is the most realistic, so it really needs to be included.

Folk might be getting a little over-excited on the basis of performance in a very small number of events (although one of these did just happen to be a Grand Slam !) But no harm in a poll of course !

We'll see how things pan out as the season moves on. Three of the Slams come in the space of around 3/4 months, and that's the part of the calendar that really matters.

Hah, cheeky poll this one. Fed at No1. Why not? Clearly the dominant player in 2017 thus far

Depends entirely on if he can bottle this iw form he's in

Form this good doesn't last forever, even with tennis Jesus. There's the clay to have to get through too where he can't sprint to the finish
Too much can happen in sport and maybe we're looking too far ahead

Not a gambling man then temp?

I like not losing money
It's just too early in the season. Remember what the layout was like this time last year?

Wait too long and the odds are Poopie. What a match from Fed there!

Federer will be focusing on titles and good performances rather than the number one spot.  No point in him exhausting himself chasing it.  But he may get it, if he remains fit and healthy, despite his age.  A more interesting, less "controversial" poll, would be on when Murray will lose his number one status, and to whom.  Nevertheless it is a good point being made by Born Slippy, and if I had my +/- option (which I think I only get after a certain number of posts or some other complex formula) I would try to negate that red mark.

I know too well how those algorithms work. Seen too many a man get obsessed with them to dabble myself.

He should focus on winning the faster tournaments rather than number 1

If he takes a full clay court swing he'll have to grind and work his body much more

That might take him out of form, or worse good health. Not sure if even touch the red stuff bar Rg if I were him

Murray will likely lose it trying to defend his post us open haul

Probably to Novak. People think he's done but he's a 12 time champ...
Lose the namby pamby guru and get some fire back, he won't be down forever

It did cross my mind today that he might get back to no 1, and just minutes later logged on and saw the article. I am a pretty skeptical, and this feels premature, especially talk of him getting back to number 1 even though his ranking points are going to be full of zeros until well into the second half of the year.

I think not at all, or October/November time.

Henman Bill wrote:It did cross my mind today that he might get back to no 1, and just minutes later logged on and saw the article. I am a pretty skeptical, and this feels premature, especially talk of him getting back to number 1 even though his ranking points are going to be full of zeros until well into the second half of the year.

I think not at all, or October/November time.

For an aging body like Federer's, I can't see how this is premature.  It is perfect timing in my view and probably the last chance saloon.

I think BS set up the poll perfectly.  I am sure he knows that the likeliest outcome is for Fed to not get back to No1.  However, by not giving that option he creates enough "controversy" to get people to talk about his poll.

That said, Fed is having a fabulous start to the year.  The best since 2006, except that this time around he is beating Rafa.

No name Bertie wrote:and if I had my +/- option (which I think I only get after a certain number of posts or some other complex formula) I would try to negate that red mark.

Is that a new thing? I never noticed them before until you mentioned it now.

temporary21 wrote:Not sure if even touch the red stuff bar Rg if I were him

My thinking exactly.  I would say go to Miami and than take a long break.  Play RG - it is a slam after all - but even there just take it easy and see how it goes.  Focus on Wimbledon and, if he has any energy left after that, the USO.

He certainly won't want to miss RG, not just for nostalgia but because he hates missing any Slam.

Last year he was forced to sit out RG of course (along with USO) in what proved to be a very troubled season.

That miss marked the very first interruption to a record consecutive Slam appearance streak of 65. He had competed at every Slam dating back to the Aussie Open of 2000.

Talking of streaks ..... his first IW title was 2004, and now this latest is his fifth. I'm wondering if there has ever been such a gap between titles at the same Masters event ......

Yes, he will be careful to avoid fatigue and is going to be very selective in where & what he plays this year. Although .... it is said in most sports that you're never quite as tired when you're winning.

I went for Autumn on the premise that not at all remains the most likely, but that Murray has so many points in the bank from the Autumn that it is then that he is most likely to lose #1 and that Federer will not pick up many points on the clay.  Some replies are a bit similar to assumptions being made in 2006 that Fed would win 20+ slams, such as already counting 1,000 pts from Miami in the bag.  There are plenty of people in the draw who can beat a slightly off-colour 35yr-old Fed on their day in a bo3 match, and it only needs to happen 1/6 times across that tournament.

If he stays healthy, I reckon Fed willl go into Wimbledon with c.5,500 points on the board, and between then and the end of the year another 4-5,000 would be a good haul (including dropping 720 from Wimbledon).  It is feasible that Fed gets to 10,000 at some time during the year, and if so he could spend a time as a relatively low-scoring #1 when none of the usual suspects seem set to dominate.

On the clay, my guess is that he'll do a 250, Rome, and RG but skip Monte Carlo and Madrid.

Some good points barrystar, and I do think that perhaps too many assumptions can be made by those wishing/expecting that Federer really can get back to Numero Uno.

This resurgence (I'm not sure quite how best to describe it ...!??) -  as seen both in Melbourne and just now at IW - is truly remarkable, within the context of age and the six-month layoff. Don't think it can be over-stated just how unique & special it has been.

This is a spell of near-magical proportions ; but like all spells, it can be broken at any time. Your reference to the quality of current-day draws, such that there are any number of players capable beating 'a slightly off-colour 35 year-old Fed' is very well-made. It happened just a few weeks back in Dubai.

It's interesting that Fed set himself fairly modest targets at the start of the season - far, far below what he has actually achieved. I think it's this low-key attitude that has been the key factor in the new-found freedom in his playing style. But he's equally aware that there will always be new kids on the block (as well as some more familiar ones ....).

I really do believe that going forward it's much more about enjoying himself on court than feeling the sort of pressures that came throughout his long years when he was top dog, and as such was always the hunted one.

I think the smart money is on Murray doing enough to hold onto number 1 for this year and into next. Second bet would be Djokovic finding some form and regaining it.

But, we are used to having dominant number ones - Fed, Rafa & Djokovic (even Murray with his end of 2016) have all been winning very regularly for years. It might be the case that the big titles are shared around a bit more this season and that puts Fed very much in the hunt. He's already won a slam and a masters. Will likely score good points in Miami, with Murray and Djokovic scoring zero.

Clay titles could be shared between - Rafa, Stan, Murray and Djokovic (perhaps even Thiem) - would expect Fed to do well on grass and the US hard courts.

I think he has a chance.

No name Bertie wrote:Federer will be focusing on titles and good performances rather than the number one spot.  No point in him exhausting himself chasing it.  But he may get it, if he remains fit and healthy, despite his age.  A more interesting, less "controversial" poll, would be on when Murray will lose his number one status, and to whom.  Nevertheless it is a good point being made by Born Slippy, and if I had my +/- option (which I think I only get after a certain number of posts or some other complex formula) I would try to negate that red mark.

So, this comment suggests you have previously posted here (or still do) under a different name, care to disclose which one?

If Djoko and Murray are having elbow issues, how do you expect them to win the clay masters? I'll bet that Rafa will win most of the clay titles, with Stan winning one perhaps, with Thiem and Kei as runners-up in some.

If Fed is not going to skip clay, I think that will diminish his chances to win Wimbledon. Fed already looked tired in the IW final, maybe it's the heat that get to him; don't expect him to play through the clay season playing two or three events and then still fresh for Wimbledon.

For Fed to win big titles, he has to pace himself, conserve energy and target the right ones to win. I would say if not for the six months break, he would not have won the AO. At IW, he was fortunate not having to play Kygrios, win or loss, he would spend more precious energy and that might affect his chances at the SF and Final. I don't foresee that he will do well at Miami, maybe reaches QF stage. He's after all 35, and Miami is hot and humid and the court is very slow.

There are many young up and comers who serves big and hit hard, they are fearless and energetic enough that may push Fed to go the distance even at the slams. It will get harder and harder for Fed right into the season as he won't be as fresh as when he's at the AO.

Fed has to plan and play smart, there are more than just Djoko, Murray and Rafa in the tour; he should cut down on events played, forget about no.1 but concentrate on winning one more slam. I think that's more realistic and I'm sure he knows it too.

I expect Djokovic and Murray are looking at the bigger picture - they are probably concerned about their poor form and resting some niggles, in an attempt to be fully fit for clay season. I would be very surprised if Djokovic and Murray don't win at least one of the big clay tournaments each.

I think Fed is a bit stuck with Miami. In some ways it is good to carry on playing whilst he is playing well, but on the other hand he just needs to rest. His IW matches were all straight sets and he benefited from Kyrgios withdrawing. If he gets to QF/SF in Miami then he will have opened up a nice points lead over Djokovic and Murray.

I think he will play one clay masters plus RG.

Fed may be happier getting another slam than getting to number one, although two slams in one season plus an already-banked 1,000-pointer is gonna get him fairly high up the rankings in any case.

TBH, even planning on Fed winning another slam this year we are getting a little bit ahead of ourselves.  He has won one slam in the last 4+ years.  Yes sure, I am hoping he will win at least one more this year, but it is a tall order - he will need to stay healthy, in good form, and even then it might be difficult if others' form improves.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:If Djoko and Murray are having elbow issues, how do you expect them to win the clay masters?

You think they are having elbow issues?

Who voted for RG? Hehe, that is just about impossible. Assuming Roger wins Miami, then plays and wins two MS1000 on clay, and also wins RG, he will have about 9,035 or so points. If Andy does not play at all during this span, he will still have about 8,800 points - so even with this scenario Fed would just barely pass Murray.

They are having elbow issues!

summerblues wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:If Djoko and Murray are having elbow issues, how do you expect them to win the clay masters?

You think they are having elbow issues?

Presumably in the Trump-like world of "fake news" and "alternative facts", both Djoko and Andy do NOT have elbow issues, even though they've said that is the reason for their missing Miami.
More seriously, it seems that Djoko has been troubled by the elbow for some time. Could explain why his serve seems to have lots its pop.

Yep. Don't see why Djoko would fake it and loses 1000 precious points right away. Murray has chances to gain points at Miami so why skips it if he's fit? They both played well at Miami in the past, so there's no reason for skipping it for no real reason.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Murray has chances to gain points at Miami so why skips it if he's fit?  They both played well at Miami in the past, so there's no reason for skipping it for no real reason.

I totally agree. Murray has been loathe to miss ANY tournament when he is fit let alone a Miami Masters 1000 which holds a special place in his heart (he has said before) given his training camps are based there. If fit he would definitely have played - no doubt.

Roger at #1? I am with ProStaff85, but it is a funny game. He has played well so far, but he was out almost 6 months last year, and it can happen again.

laverfan wrote:Roger at #1? I am with ProStaff85, but it is a funny game. He has played well so far, but he was out almost 6 months last year, and it can happen again.

That seems rather pessimistic. There is no suggestion of any injury and, of course, any player could pick up an unfortunate knock. I think we have to assume there's a strong chance he will stay fit when assessing his prospects.

As for his clay schedule, I'd have thought he will play two Masters and RG. I don't see any point in him playing less than that - it's hardly a tough schedule over 10 weeks. MC, Madrid and RG looks ideal.

Tough draw this week with DP early on. However, if he gets past that match, it's likely that another 1,000 points will be added to his lead over the top 2.

sirfredperry wrote:

summerblues wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:If Djoko and Murray are having elbow issues, how do you expect them to win the clay masters?

You think they are having elbow issues?

Presumably in the Trump-like world of "fake news" and "alternative facts", both Djoko and Andy do NOT have elbow issues, even though they've said that is the reason for their missing Miami.

Maybe you guys are right, but I was imagining something like this (irrespective of America's 45th President):

In their hotel rooms, Nole and Andy were thinking that their form has been so-so, that they would like to get in shape, especially for slams which are at this stage of their careers really all that matters (and where they both underperformed in the last couple of them), that the tennis season is moving to Europe to clay and grass, and that Miami is a hard court tournament in the US, and that it might not help them all that much in their prep, and that it was a mandatory tournament that you cannot skip if healthy.

And I imagine that as they were pondering all this, they realized that their elbows were giving them trouble.

Born Slippy wrote:That seems rather pessimistic. There is no suggestion of any injury and, of course, any player could pick up an unfortunate knock. I think we have to assume there's a strong chance he will stay fit when assessing his prospects.

Do not want to sound pessimistic, but at 35+, it is hard to do this on a daily basis. MSes are much tougher, due to a compressed schedule, especially the second week. It would be good to see Federer play as long as he can and try and get to some of Rosewall's longevity records.

Didn't mean my "fake news" about the elbow injuries to be taken seriously. Djoko and Andy are both clearly genuinely injured. It was more of a comment on the Trump-style "alternative news" now being bandied about. Should have expressed myself better. Apologies.
Expect a lot of top players would like del Po to go deep in this tournament so he gets his ranking up and they don't have to keep playing him so early on in the draw.

summerblues wrote:

sirfredperry wrote:

summerblues wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:If Djoko and Murray are having elbow issues, how do you expect them to win the clay masters?

You think they are having elbow issues?

Presumably in the Trump-like world of "fake news" and "alternative facts", both Djoko and Andy do NOT have elbow issues, even though they've said that is the reason for their missing Miami.

Maybe you guys are right, but I was imagining something like this (irrespective of America's 45th President):

In their hotel rooms, Nole and Andy were thinking that their form has been so-so, that they would like to get in shape, especially for slams which are at this stage of their careers really all that matters (and where they both underperformed in the last couple of them), that the tennis season is moving to Europe to clay and grass, and that Miami is a hard court tournament in the US, and that it might not help them all that much in their prep, and that it was a mandatory tournament that you cannot skip if healthy.

And I imagine that as they were pondering all this, they realized that their elbows were giving them trouble.

Both can skip one Masters event per year if they wat to do so, as they have played more than 600 matches on tour. I think they probably both meet the 12 years of service rule as well - which allows them to skip a second.

You do like a good conspiracy theory SB!

Am now hearing that Andy is returning to UK, partly due to elbow-related troubles.

Seems doubtful that he will make Davis Cup tie (v France ...?) with all that's going on, but let's see.

sirfredperry wrote:Didn't mean my "fake news" about the elbow injuries to be taken seriously. Djoko and Andy are both clearly genuinely injured. It was more of a comment on the Trump-style "alternative news" now being bandied about. Should have expressed myself better. Apologies.

Here I am peddling my theories about whether or not Andy and Djoko are genuinely injured, and it is you who is apologizing?  Surely there is something wrong way about that.

Born Slippy wrote:You do like a good conspiracy theory SB!

A conspiracy theory??? But nobody is conspiring in my theory.  I just think that people lie.  And these kinds of lies would be pretty white anyway.

Ah, so Miami is not mandatory for the two of them, so you can scratch the last bit of my musings.  On the other hand, I had forgotten about Davis Cup being played between now and the clay court season - so you can add that there instead.

Obviously both serving 14 day silent bans

summerblues wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:You do like a good conspiracy theory SB!

A conspiracy theory??? But nobody is conspiring in my theory.  I just think that people lie.  And these kinds of lies would be pretty white anyway.

Ah, so Miami is not mandatory for the two of them, so you can scratch the last bit of my musings.  On the other hand, I had forgotten about Davis Cup being played between now and the clay court season - so you can add that there instead.

Better watch out when putting your 'musings' into print. There are some gullible people out there who will accept them as fact.

Calder106 wrote:Better watch out when putting your 'musings' into print. There are some gullible people out there who will accept them as fact.

I think it is pretty clear that my musings are just that; and if anyone takes them for a fact they have themselves to blame.

In practice, though, I think the bigger problem (so to speak) is that many people accept player injury stories as a fact and are loath to even contemplate the possibility that players may have just found the injury excuse the easiest and cleanest way of getting themselves out of a tournament.

summerblues wrote:In practice, though, I think the bigger problem (so to speak) is that many people accept player injury stories as a fact and are loath to even contemplate the possibility that players may have just found the injury excuse the easiest and cleanest way of getting themselves out of a tournament.

Fatigue is an even easier excuse than Injury. It does not require a doctor's note either.

Fatigue, injury, they are not all that different.  But suppose you do not feel like going to a tournament.  You can be honest and say "you know what; given where I am right now I do not really care for your tournament" or you can say "I am injured/fatigued etc".  Who is going to be upset that you "lied" to them about your injury?  It is such a white lie.  If anything, a tournament director will be happier to accept the lie I suppose - at least he/she can tell everyone that the player really wanted to come but could not rather than that they would not bother.

Anyway, I am not saying the two of them definitely are not injured.  But I think it is also naïve to act like it is an established certainty that they are injured.

summerblues wrote:I think BS set up the poll perfectly.  I am sure he knows that the likeliest outcome is for Fed to not get back to No1.  However, by not giving that option he creates enough "controversy" to get people to talk about his poll.

That said, Fed is having a fabulous start to the year.  The best since 2006, except that this time around he is beating Rafa.

If this poll is set up perfectly, how come it doesn't have an option to vote for arguably the most obvious option?

summerblues wrote:Fatigue, injury, they are not all that different.  But suppose you do not feel like going to a tournament.  You can be honest and say "you know what; given where I am right now I do not really care for your tournament" or you can say "I am injured/fatigued etc".  Who is going to be upset that you "lied" to them about your injury?  It is such a white lie.  If anything, a tournament director will be happier to accept the lie I suppose - at least he/she can tell everyone that the player really wanted to come but could not rather than that they would not bother.

Anyway, I am not saying the two of them definitely are not injured.  But I think it is also naïve to act like it is an established certainty that they are injured.

But you are sowing the seeds of doubt without any evidence apart from your 'musings'.

He won't get No1, unless he heavily commits to the clay season. Even then you would say that the dirt is not the best surface for Roger right now

Presumably the author of this article is under the impression that the top two will went nothing of any great merit and 6000 points will eventually do it . However, lets remember that both have actually won an event this year

summerblues wrote:Fatigue, injury, they are not all that different.  But suppose you do not feel like going to a tournament.  You can be honest and say "you know what; given where I am right now I do not really care for your tournament" or you can say "I am injured/fatigued etc".  Who is going to be upset that you "lied" to them about your injury?  It is such a white lie.  If anything, a tournament director will be happier to accept the lie I suppose - at least he/she can tell everyone that the player really wanted to come but could not rather than that they would not bother.

Anyway, I am not saying the two of them definitely are not injured.  But I think it is also naïve to act like it is an established certainty that they are injured.

Ridiculously insulting to both. For instance when have you ever come across Murray pretending he's injured? If anything he has a history of the opposite, i.e. hiding issues and refusing to use them as excuses

Why would Andy avoid a tournament that plays to his strenghts, is where his base is and that he's won twice?

banbrotam wrote:

summerblues wrote:Fatigue, injury, they are not all that different.  But suppose you do not feel like going to a tournament.  You can be honest and say "you know what; given where I am right now I do not really care for your tournament" or you can say "I am injured/fatigued etc".  Who is going to be upset that you "lied" to them about your injury?  It is such a white lie.  If anything, a tournament director will be happier to accept the lie I suppose - at least he/she can tell everyone that the player really wanted to come but could not rather than that they would not bother.

Anyway, I am not saying the two of them definitely are not injured.  But I think it is also naïve to act like it is an established certainty that they are injured.

Ridiculously insulting to both. For instance when have you ever come across Murray pretending he's injured? If anything he has a history of the opposite, i.e. hiding issues and refusing to use them as excuses

Why would Andy avoid a tournament that plays to his strenghts, is where his base is and that he's won twice?

I guess the reason he would avoid playing is because he's not playing to his usual level and getting his usual results. He may be carrying a knock, which he would normally play with (when are they ever 100%?) but has decided a rest would be better given his poor form.

Look at Federer, had six months off and has had the best possible return. In those six months Murray killed himself winning everything and may now feel he is better served resting for clay and grass seasons.

Djokovic clearly has some personal demons or motivation issues going on. He may be taking time off to address those.