When will Roger retake Number 1?

First topic message reminder :

With an expected victory tonight, Roger will be over 2,500 points clear of Andy year to date. He should also clean up Miami in the absence of Murray and probable absence of Novak, extending the gap to 3,500 points over Murray and 4,000 points over Novak. It's then likely to be only a matter of time before he gets back to Number 1.

It's unlikely to happen by RG. He'd basically need to win everything on the clay and Andy do poorly. However, Wimbledon is a possibility. I can see a scenario whereby Andy loses in the SF and Fed takes the title to get back to Number 1. If not, the US Open is an option but it's a near certainty to happen in the autumn season, when Andy defends every point going and Fed defends 0 points.

I just have a feeling he will take it back at the US Open, winning his third slam of the year in the process. What do others think?

Murray said he'd never felt so tired at the end of a season as he did in 2016. Djoko's elbow probs may explain why he's done comparatively poorly this year.
Highly ironic that Murray had to win virtually every match at the tail-end of 2016 to get to, and stay, number one, but that now he's extending his lead at the top while not actually playing!

Guest82 wrote:

banbrotam wrote:

summerblues wrote:Fatigue, injury, they are not all that different.  But suppose you do not feel like going to a tournament.  You can be honest and say "you know what; given where I am right now I do not really care for your tournament" or you can say "I am injured/fatigued etc".  Who is going to be upset that you "lied" to them about your injury?  It is such a white lie.  If anything, a tournament director will be happier to accept the lie I suppose - at least he/she can tell everyone that the player really wanted to come but could not rather than that they would not bother.

Anyway, I am not saying the two of them definitely are not injured.  But I think it is also naïve to act like it is an established certainty that they are injured.

Ridiculously insulting to both. For instance when have you ever come across Murray pretending he's injured? If anything he has a history of the opposite, i.e. hiding issues and refusing to use them as excuses

Why would Andy avoid a tournament that plays to his strenghts, is where his base is and that he's won twice?

I guess the reason he would avoid playing is because he's not playing to his usual level and getting his usual results.  He may be carrying a knock, which he would normally play with (when are they ever 100%?) but has decided a rest would be better given his poor form.

Look at Federer, had six months off and has had the best possible return.  In those six months Murray killed himself winning everything and may now feel he is better served resting for clay and grass seasons.

Djokovic clearly has some personal demons or motivation issues going on.  He may be taking time off to address those.

Didn't he do better than he has ever done before in Dubai and then do about as well as he usually does in IW (i.e. badly)? Seems a lot more likely that he is actually injured - and would also explain his poor serving display in IW if he has an elbow issue.

Born Slippy wrote:

Guest82 wrote:

banbrotam wrote:

summerblues wrote:Fatigue, injury, they are not all that different.  But suppose you do not feel like going to a tournament.  You can be honest and say "you know what; given where I am right now I do not really care for your tournament" or you can say "I am injured/fatigued etc".  Who is going to be upset that you "lied" to them about your injury?  It is such a white lie.  If anything, a tournament director will be happier to accept the lie I suppose - at least he/she can tell everyone that the player really wanted to come but could not rather than that they would not bother.

Anyway, I am not saying the two of them definitely are not injured.  But I think it is also naïve to act like it is an established certainty that they are injured.

Ridiculously insulting to both. For instance when have you ever come across Murray pretending he's injured? If anything he has a history of the opposite, i.e. hiding issues and refusing to use them as excuses

Why would Andy avoid a tournament that plays to his strenghts, is where his base is and that he's won twice?

I guess the reason he would avoid playing is because he's not playing to his usual level and getting his usual results.  He may be carrying a knock, which he would normally play with (when are they ever 100%?) but has decided a rest would be better given his poor form.

Look at Federer, had six months off and has had the best possible return.  In those six months Murray killed himself winning everything and may now feel he is better served resting for clay and grass seasons.

Djokovic clearly has some personal demons or motivation issues going on.  He may be taking time off to address those.

Didn't he do better than he has ever done before in Dubai and then do about as well as he usually does in IW (i.e. badly)? Seems a lot more likely that he is actually injured - and would also explain his poor serving display in IW if he has an elbow issue.

I think the world number one would expect to be sitting higher than tenth in the race after a slam and a masters have been played.

Calder106 wrote:But you are sowing the seeds of doubt without any evidence apart from your 'musings'.

But seeds of doubt are fine, and I make it clear that these are just my musings.

Do you want no seeds of doubt?  Act like we 100% believe them unless we have evidence otherwise?  But that kind of approach would - in general - clearly provide a biased estimator of reality.

Again, I am not saying that they for sure are making their injury up; I am just pointing out that the probability that they are really injured is below 100%, and that we should not act as if it were 100%.

banbrotam wrote:He won't get No1, unless he heavily commits to the clay season. Even then you would say that the dirt is not the best surface for Roger right now

Presumably the author of this article is under the impression that the top two will went nothing of any great merit and 6000 points will eventually do it . However, lets remember that both have actually won an event this year

I agree it is quite unlikely Roger will make #1, but I do not think it is quite as far fetched as you make it sound.

Assuming Nole, Andy and Roger do as well for the rest of the season as they did in 2015, this is roughly the point totals they would have at year-end:

Novak:  11,415
Fed: 8,945
Andy: 6,970

Obviously, there are lots of ifs and buts, but the above numbers would put Fed well in the mix.  And remember, 2015 was a banner year for Novak.  If Novak and Andy continue to play so-so, it might be even easier to get to #1.

But even with the above numbers it is not so impossible to see how it could happen.  The above assumes Fed loses in the first round in Miami.  But, for example, if Fed were to win in Miami, and flip one of his GS losses against Nole into a win, that would see him at #1 even with Nole playing comparably to 2015.

Obviously, hypotheticals, and if I were to guess today, I would say Fed is unlikely to do it - at his age there is a good chance something will come up (if nothing else, fatigue).  But still, it is quite realistic to see him get to #1.

Therefore, I think BS's poll was quite timely and appropriate.

Announcement of the entry list for Monte Carlo suggests Fed won't play there. With his startling start to the season, he can pick and choose his events this year.

I think Fed should skip MC (I would even suggest he should skip all of the clay court season including RG but obviously that will not happen). However, I would not conclude he is definitely skipping MC just because he has not yet entered. I believe he had previously suggested he would schedule his clay court season only after HCs are done, and I am sure they would give him a WC if he asked for one.

Lets weigh this up using logic and career stats.

Murray is a workaholic. When fit he plays and even when not fully fit (long spell with back injury) he plays. Miami Masters is a tournament he holds in high esteem (almost like a second home tournament) given that he trains in pre-season there. Other evidence of an elbow injury? His service stats in IW suggested something was bothering him. I am all ears if anyone wants to question those pertinent facts and offer some of their own to prove he isn't injured.

Apologies for being dumb
Are we saying there's a chance Murray is faking an elbow injury?

Is there any reason to think he would? I can't see the logic

banbrotam wrote:He won't get No1, unless he heavily commits to the clay season. Even then you would say that the dirt is not the best surface for Roger right now

Presumably the author of this article is under the impression that the top two will went nothing of any great merit and 6000 points will eventually do it . However, lets remember that both have actually won an event this year

I'm not sure I get the relevance of 6,000 points. I'd expect Fed to (conservatively) have reached that figure by the end of Wimbledon. I think it's reasonable to assume he will end somewhere between 9,000 - 11,000 points. Even the low end of that range could do it unless someone dominates a large chunk of the season. He's got a huge head start on the likely challengers (likely to be 3,000 points by the end of Miami). That will be very tough for them to close if he stays fit.

How do you get a 3000 points lead?? Both Rafa (1635) and Stan (1410) are 1000+ points behind Fed's 3045. Even if Fed were to win Miami and thus getting to 4045; he's still not 3000 points ahead of Rafa and Stan.

Both Rafa and Stan have already won their R2 matches and it looks like they would proceed further to QF at least so narrowing Fed's lead. Rafa and Stan may get a good chunk of clay court points, if Djoko and Murray are not back to their top form by then.

It's still too early to talk about Fed getting to no.1, he may not even win Wimbledon! I also doubt that he's going to win Miami, I mean he needs long break before each title it seems (AO after 6 months break; IW one and a half months after AO, after losing early at Dubai). He may need to skip some clay events in order to do well on grass, so his points may not be enough for him to get to no.1.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:How do you get a 3000 points lead?? Both Rafa (1635) and Stan (1410) [...]

I suspect BS has already given Fed the Miami title and also that he is ignoring Rafa and Stan, and only counts Novak and Andy as worthy No 1 challengers - hence 3000 point lead.

This is all predicated on federer keeping this form an entire year whilst playing a fully packed schedule
Not even 25 year old roger could do that
Plus I don't think he's played a full season for a few years. He's always skipped something
It looks a huge head start until you factor the 5000 clay points on offer soon

I don't think it's in his interests to grind his body and form down chasing it

temporary21 wrote:This is all predicated on federer keeping this form an entire year whilst playing a fully packed schedule
Not even 25 year old roger could do that
Plus I don't think he's played a full season for a few years. He's always skipped something
It looks a huge head start until you factor the 5000 clay points on offer soon

I don't think it's in his interests to grind his body and form down chasing it

Plus, if as suggested he misses Monte Carlo then that it a few hundred points dropped as he reached the QF's there last year.

temporary21 wrote:This is all predicated on federer keeping this form an entire year whilst playing a fully packed schedule
Not even 25 year old roger could do that
Plus I don't think he's played a full season for a few years. He's always skipped something
It looks a huge head start until you factor the 5000 clay points on offer soon

I don't think it's in his interests to grind his body and form down chasing it

Yes, he's certainly skipped stuff in the past but as regards playing 'a full season' ....well I'm not sure anybody ever does really - including his much younger rivals who have less excuse for being fatigued or feeling washed up, whatever. But of course injuries are different from fatigue and can affect anyone at any time ; some more often & more seriously than others ; JMDP being perhaps the most high profile example to suffer.

The fact is - leaving 2016 aside, for obvious reasons - Fed has been putting in a decent shift, even in very recent years since turning 30. I think this looks definitely - on his own admission - to be the first season when his schedule will be dramatically lighter compared to the past ; which of course makes perfect sense, as mentioned.

Herewith comparative stats for total matches played (official tour events only) by the 'big' names (current ranking order) :

Murray

-  (2015) 85
-  (2014) 79
-  (2013) 51

Djokovic

- (2015) 88
- (2014) 69
- (2013) 83

Nadal

- (2015) 81
- (2014) 59
- (2013) 82

Federer

- (2015) 74
- (2014) 85
- (2013) 62

Totals :

Murray -    215
Djokovic -  240
Nadal-       222
Federer -   221

I guess the main reason why Federer has a realistic chance to get back to #1 is that none of the other candidates seem to be a dominant force in 2017. Djokovic had a long spell of dominance from 2014 to mid-2016, but then finally Murray got back to the level and confidence he had when we won his first Wimbledon. After the AO it's not unreasonable to think Rafa could have another successful clay season - at least preventing Djokovic to take 3,500+ points. Maybe if del Potro stays fit he could finally win a second slam? Wawrinka might hit another purple patch this season, and sooner or later guys like Kyrgios and Zverev will break through, maybe already this season?

IF Federer manages to win Miami - and that's still a big if facing del Potro in R3! - I believe he has a great chance to become #1. AO+IW+Miami represents almost 25% of the maximum slams+masters1000 points. If the remaining 75% of the season gets divided between the others, it won't be easy for anyone to overtake Fed in the 'race' after his headstart. And let's not forget that Federer himself is a contender e.g. at W and the USO.

If Federer doesn't win Miami, there will obviously be a lot more work ahead if he is to reach #1 at some point during the season...

Good post prostaff, and you have summarised very well what many others feel : which is that it's certainly not impossible for Federer to regain once more the top spot (and what a truly amazing thing that would be, at the age of 36 ......!!) ; but that it will need a particular combination of circumstances to all conspire in his favour.

Meanwhile ..... as the joke goes ......he's the ONLY player with a chance of taking a 'Calendar Grand Slam' in 2017.

Rafa could be in with a shout of YE 1 too. If he were to win Miami (he has a very nice draw) with Fed crashing out to Del Potro (very possible) - then he would be 500 points behind in the race heading into the clay season.

If he were to dominate the clay season getting say 4000 points that would be a tough gap for Fed to make up on grass and HC.

I still think Nole and Andy are favorites to be YE #1.  If they continue to struggle, then Fed.  But given that Fed is soon 36, who knows whether he can keep his good form all year long.  And if all of three of them end up struggling, then there is a whole host of players with a chance at #1.

Rafa certainly among them - he has had a good start to the season, and clay courts are still coming up.  I am not convinced he is back to anywhere his old form, but maybe he will not even have to be.

Others could take #1 too - Stan perhaps?  Or maybe even someone else?  That would be a shocker!

Well, Stan has not helped his chances after crashing out to Zverev. The Man himself has, I think, said he's too inconsistent to become number one.

summerblues wrote:I still think Nole and Andy are favorites to be YE #1.  If they continue to struggle, then Fed.  But given that Fed is soon 36, who knows whether he can keep his good form all year long.  And if all of three of them end up struggling, then there is a whole host of players with a chance at #1.

Rafa certainly among them - he has had a good start to the season, and clay courts are still coming up.  I am not convinced he is back to anywhere his old form, but maybe he will not even have to be.

Others could take #1 too - Stan perhaps?  Or maybe even someone else?  That would be a shocker!

Can't see anyone else being YE#1. Nobody looks as if they have the consistency. Federer has had a great start to the year and unless Murray and Djokovic get back their fitness and form back by the clay court season I think he will be YE#1. No one has stepped up to fill the void that Murray and Djokovic's form/injuries has left. Federer is winning his matches in pretty quick time so not using up too much energy. He also won a few 5 setters at the AO. Whether that was because he was fresh from his long absence or not might be interesting in the other slams if he gets into 5 setters.

Wawrinka far too inconsistent. No 1 seed this week and loses 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 to Alex Zverev. I know Zverev is a very good young player but 6-2, 6-1 in sets 2 and 3 is pretty bad from Wawrinka. Also if the plays Federer at any stage he will probably lose.

Nadal is doing ok just now and the clay season could be good for him. However Federer has beaten him 2 twice on HC already and I would expect him to do so again most times on HC or grass.

Calder106 wrote:

summerblues wrote:I still think Nole and Andy are favorites to be YE #1.  If they continue to struggle, then Fed.  But given that Fed is soon 36, who knows whether he can keep his good form all year long.  And if all of three of them end up struggling, then there is a whole host of players with a chance at #1.

Rafa certainly among them - he has had a good start to the season, and clay courts are still coming up.  I am not convinced he is back to anywhere his old form, but maybe he will not even have to be.

Others could take #1 too - Stan perhaps?  Or maybe even someone else?  That would be a shocker!

Can't see anyone else being YE#1. Nobody looks as if they have the consistency. Federer has had a great start to the year and unless Murray and Djokovic get back their fitness and form back by the clay court season I think he will be YE#1.  No one has stepped up to fill the void that Murray and Djokovic's  form/injuries has left. Federer is winning his matches in pretty quick time so not using up too much energy. He also won a few 5 setters at the AO. Whether that was because he was fresh from his long absence or not might be interesting in the other slams if he gets into 5 setters.

Wawrinka far too inconsistent. No 1 seed this week and loses 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 to Alex  Zverev. I know Zverev is a very good young player but 6-2, 6-1 in sets 2 and 3 is pretty bad from Wawrinka. Also if the plays Federer at any stage he will probably lose.

Nadal is doing ok just now and the clay season could be good for him.  However Federer has beaten him 2 twice on HC already and I would expect him to do so again most times on HC or grass

I can't see anyone else at the moment either. But we know that Murray or Djokovic could go on a tear and win pretty much everything for the rest of the season. Or Rafa could win everything on clay and still do ok on hard courts.

Agree. I should have been more clear and said anyone outside Federer, Murray and Djokovic. That's what I meant.

Fed to beat Nadal on HCs from now on?? I seriously doubt so.
Fed played horribly against Agut; I suspect he was tired after the Delpo match, and I foresee him getting tired more often when he does not have long breaks between tournaments. The way Fed played against Agut, Rafa would have beaten him!

If Rafa goes to final or even wins Miami, I can foresee him doing well on clay and wins most of the clay titles. After all, both Djoko and Murray would not be match fit and clay is Rafa's best surface.

Rafa has a good chance to become no.1 if all that happen, for I don't see Fed playing many events on clay at the expense of his Wimbledon quest. If both Djoko and Murray are not back to their best, I see Rafa having a good chance at getting to no.1, and I do not see Fed getting to no.1 simply because he's 35 and needs long rest in order to do well, most likely not playing a full schedule.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Fed to beat Nadal on HCs from now on??  I seriously doubt so.
Fed played horribly against Agut; I suspect he was tired after the Delpo match, and I foresee him getting tired more often when he does not have long breaks between tournaments.  The way Fed played against Agut, Rafa would have beaten him!

If Rafa goes to final or even wins Miami, I can foresee him doing well on clay and wins most of the clay titles.  After all, both Djoko and Murray would not be match fit and clay is Rafa's best surface.  

Rafa has a good chance to become no.1 if all that happen, for I don't see Fed playing many events on clay at the expense of his Wimbledon quest. If both Djoko and Murray are not back to their best, I see Rafa having a good chance at getting to no.1, and I do not see Fed getting to no.1 simply because he's 35 and needs long rest in order to do well, most likely not playing a full schedule.

Fed was also pretty poor against Steve Johnson in IW, the following day he came out and blew Nadal away. I think he just had an off day against Agut. Rafa didn't look great against Mahut either.

I agree with Rafa having a good chance at No1. He needs to build a majority of his points in the clay season though (as always). If he can build up a nice lead in the race once Murrays points start dropping off in the latter half of the year he could have a chance. If the clay tournaments are shared around, as I think they will be, then Fed is probably favourite for YE1 due to his lead at the moment.

You missed the point; he was still fresh at IW, unlike at Miami now after so many matches played. He played worse in this Agut match than that Johnson match. Johnson had a big serve, Agut has/had no major weapon except good running. Fed made a mess of everything, hitting to the net or over hitting, slow to cover his FH when Agut was smart enough (unlike Rafa at IW) to attack Fed's FH after noticing Fed was slow to cover his FH corner, camping at his BH most of the times.

IW conditions suit Fed better than the Miami conditions. Fed may be a it tired too after two weeks of continuous play; however with a day's rest, he should be fine against familiar foe Berdych. Thereafter, it would be tough again when there's no rest from SF to final.

Regarding Djoko and Murray, I have doubts about them on clay this year, haven't played many matches this year and so may be rusty. Rafa only lost to Djoko and Murray on clay last year so I think with improved confidence, chances are he will do better this year.

I mean there's no rest from QF to SF. There's a day's rest from SF to final though.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Rafa only lost to Djoko and Murray on clay last year so I think with improved confidence, chances are he will do better this year.  

Are you expecting him to win maybe a couple of masters plus RG then?  That would seem rather tough to do.  I suppose he could do it, but I would be surprised if he did.

summerblues wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Rafa only lost to Djoko and Murray on clay last year so I think with improved confidence, chances are he will do better this year.  

Are you expecting him to win maybe a couple of masters plus RG then?  That would seem rather tough to do.  I suppose he could do it, but I would be surprised if he did.

He has a good chance doesn't he? I think we might see the clay title shared around a bit though - Djokovic, Murray & Rafa all have even chances IMO.

Live points - selected players only

Federer 4045
Nadal 2235
Warwinka 1500
Krygios 855
Murray 840
Djokovic 475

http://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race

Good call from Fed to skip most of the clay court season. It will cost him some points but should keep him hopefully fresh for Wimbledon and the USO (and, I suppose, RG too).

Henman Bill wrote:Live points - selected players only

Federer 4045
Nadal 2235
Warwinka 1500
Krygios 855
Murray 840
Djokovic 475

http://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race

If you look back over the years, 4045 points in November has pretty much every year been enough to qualify for the WTF - so Federer can really pick and choose this year and, as he says, just play for the heck of it. I think that he has a big coincidence of things working in his favour: (i) 6 months off to work on his serve and his backhand and to get the hang of his new racquet, (ii) being angst-free, (iii) Djoko (temporarily?) struggling for motivation, (iv) Murray having failed to captalise on the part of the year where he could have made up a good slug of points vs. a poor 2016 - from now on in Murray is mostly defending points.

That said, No. 1 should be considered as a long shot - and sensibly Fed is not chasing points.

Reckon Fed may, in the end, decide to fit in one clay-court tourney before RG. Right now he's exhausted after his incredible run. But it will be a tall order to go into the French with no clay-court matches played.
But, as B-star points out, his points/ranking is all good, so he can cherry pick his events.
Should there be some freaky points distribution over the coming months, Rog is still certain to play in the WTFs, as the rules state that it's the top SEVEN who qualify plus a GS winner as long as that GS winner is in the TOP 20. I think the only year when this rule has kicked in was the year Cilic won the USO.

Playing at the FO without warm up events is easier for Federer than others especially in today's 32 seed system. You still run the risk that you draw someone ranked 33 on a hot clay streak, but this is fairly unlikely. He is good enough and so comfortable with the event that he should be able to play into form during the tournament.

I would like him to play Rome just because he's never won it, and it is a great tournament in its own right, and has to be worth a shot, as well as some ranking points.

I would have liked him to play Monte Carlo for the same reasons but that is obviously not a sensible choice now it's coming too soon. I would have liked him to play it though, had he lost second round Miami say.

Here's the exact quote:

"I'm not 24 any more, so things have changed in a big way and I probably won't play any clay-court events except the French," Federer said in a courtside interview with ESPN's Brad Gilbert. "I need a rest, my body needs healing. I need time as well to prepare, so you'll probably see me at the French again."

As reported here
http://www.sportingnews.com/other-sports/news/roger-federer-roland-garros-only-clay-court-tournament-2017/1ps8wtjqpfc60zao8qpsw2dgq

He has said that Rome is his favourite stop on the tour, so if he feels up to playing a tournament before RG it probably would be Rome - he can always enter late if he feels up to it.

He knows this year may be his last really good chance at Wimbledon, and he has put Stuttgart and Halle on his schedule in the extended grass season. If he added Rome he'd be taking on a run of 5 tournaments including two Slams and the most extreme surface adjustment over a period of 2 months. However good he feels before Rome, he'd have to be full of doubt whether to take that on.

summerblues wrote:Good call from Fed to skip most of the clay court season.  It will cost him some points but should keep him hopefully fresh for Wimbledon and the USO (and, I suppose, RG too).

Right, sensible decision not to chase ranking points at the risk of getting injured/fatigued!

The only downside I see is that he risks being outside of the top 4 when Wimbledon seeds are announced (which could lead to a QF against Murray or Djokovic...). But maybe the added grass points would let him overtake Nadal in the seeding calculation anyway?

With regard to the French Open seeding, Nadal actually needs to play a rather strong clay season to overtake Federer in the rankings, i.e. better than last season when he won Monte Carlo and Barcelona plus made the semis in Madrid and the quarters in Rome.

prostaff85 wrote:

summerblues wrote:Good call from Fed to skip most of the clay court season.  It will cost him some points but should keep him hopefully fresh for Wimbledon and the USO (and, I suppose, RG too).

Right, sensible decision not to chase ranking points at the risk of getting injured/fatigued!

The only downside I see is that he risks being outside of the top 4 when Wimbledon seeds are announced (which could lead to a QF against Murray or Djokovic...). But maybe the added grass points would let him overtake Nadal in the seeding calculation anyway?

With regard to the French Open seeding, Nadal actually needs to play a rather strong clay season to overtake Federer in the rankings, i.e. better than last season when he won Monte Carlo and Barcelona plus made the semis in Madrid and the quarters in Rome.

I think Federer will lose points from last years Monte Carlo (QF) and Rome (R3) if he doesn't play anything before RG.

True Federer will lose those 270 points, but Rafa is defending over 2,000 points pre-RG. Given that he is already 600 points behind in the rankings, he'll need to earn almost 2,500 points to overtake Fed. With a absolute maximum of 3,500 (3 masters+Barcelona), that's a tall order!

prostaff85 wrote:True Federer will lose those 270 points, but Rafa is defending over 2,000 points pre-RG. Given that he is already 600 points behind in the rankings, he'll need to earn almost 2,500 points to overtake Fed. With a absolute maximum of 3,500 (3 masters+Barcelona), that's a tall order!

You overlook RG itself, where Nadal is defending a tiny points tally and is likely to do better than a rusty Fed, who has nothing to defend admittedly.

1. I'd not be surprised if Nadal gets ahead of Federer in the pure ATP Ranking by close to 1,000 points after RG - but he needs to do better than that.  

2. Federer has a huge advantage on Wimbledon's seeding, where they take a date shortly before this year's tournament and, working back, add 100% of grass court points earned in the last 12 months, and 75% for the 12 months before that - namely he starts with 5305 from which he'll drop c.500, but gets at least an additional 1,500 points from his Wimbledon SF in 2016 and F in 2015, and his SF's in Stuttgart and Halle in 2016; furthermore, and dependent on the date Wimbledon chose to work back from, he might even get another 350 for his Halle win in 2015.  Whilst he'll drop pure ranking points from Halle and Stuttgart in the ATP ranking, he has a good chance of matching them, and even if he doesn't the overall advantage of the Wimbledon system more than compensates - his seeding basis is going to be at least c.6,500 points.  

3. Therefore Nadal at 4,735, due to drop 2,000 will have to pick up c.4,000 points on the clay to have a chance of overcoming Feds' advantage.  He has managed c.4,000 points or more every year between 2005 and 2014, except for 2009, when he got c.3,500, and only fell significantly shorter in the problematic years of 2015 and 2016.  So, if he's anything like back to his standard of 3+ years ago, he's got a run at Fed - but Fed's points in the bank are more valuable obviously.

4. Don't forget Raonic at 4,345, who will pick up grass court bonus seeding points of 1,200 and another 350 or 500 from his appearances in last year's Wimbledon and Queens finals but has not got a great deal of clay points to lose - he needs to pick up another c.1,200 points to get ahead of Fed - but he's got to recover from injury and struggle away on his worst surface.

5. Wawrinka's position as a top 4 seed at Wimbledon might be vulnerable - he starts at 5,785 but has 1,250 points to defend over the clay season and a very small grass court bonus - he's got to rack up c 2,500 points on clay to stay ahead of Fed.

6. In theory someone else may emerge from the pack with a lot of clay season points given the relative vulnerabilities of Djoko and Murray, Stan's inconsistency, and the absence of Federer - but it would have to be an unprecedented success for somebody - a points tally of 3,500 - 4,000 and is not at all likely.

7. I therefore have Federer as a strong favourite to fill one of the #3 to #4 slots and thereby avoid Murray and Djoko until the SF; the others have their chances but more than one of them will have to do very well and there's only so many points to share around - for example there are hardly enough points for both Wawrinka and Nadal to overhaul Fed, unless they share out pretty much all the goodies between themselves.

Great stats, B'star.

barrystar wrote:You overlook RG itself, where Nadal is defending a tiny points tally and is likely to do better than a rusty Fed, who has nothing to defend admittedly.

No I didn't overlook it - I was talking about RG seeding i.e. rankings before RG starts. Rafa needs to perform very well if he wants to overtake Fed. I fully agree with you that Rafa has a good chance to overtake him in the rankings after RG, in fact that's why I was stating that Federer takes a small risk with his Wimbledon seeding.

But you could be right about Wawrinka's top 4 position being vulnerable! Unless Stan has a strong clay season, we could actually have the "big four" being seeded 1-4 at Wimbledon!
I don't see Raonic as a threat - he did pretty well on clay last year (QF's in Monte Carlo and Madrid, R4 at RG) and is unlikely to do significantly better this year.

Here are top 10 point getters when I remove last year's clay points (i.e., the table has points from after RG through now).

(current ATP ranking in parentheses)

1(1) Andy 8800 pts
2(4) Roger 5035
3(3) Stan 4535
4(2) Nole 4305
5(6) Raonic 3760
6(8) Cilic 3225
7(7) Nishi 3110
8(10) Tsonga 2725
9(12) Dimi 2700
10(5) Rafa 2605

Andy still very safe at #1.  Remarkable how poor Nole has been after RG.  Almost half his current ranking points come from clay from last year.  If his poor form continues on clay, he will soon see himself fighting for #3, #4 or even #5 spot.

For Rafa likewise, almost half his ranking points are from clay.  So he will also need to do well or he will drop from #5.  The expectation with Rafa seems to be that he is reinvigorated and will do well.  I am not totally sold on that.  We will see soon enough.

Rafa can gain points at Madrid, Rome and RG (and esp at RG when he only had 90 points last season), even if he can't defend his titles at MC and Barcelona. Therafter he has practically no ranking point to defend (only 370) and so any event he plays in he will gain points.

Fed has to defend 270 on clay and 990 on grass, so he has to do better or at least maintain those, if not Rafa may very well surpass him in the rankings.

Murray has plenty of points to defend from clay season onwards and any slip ups, the others may capitalize. Djoko wasn't poor in the second half of last year; he was poor only at Wimbledon. He didn't play at Cincy and Beijing last year so he has chances to gain points at all these places, starting with Wimbledon.

For Rafa, even if he drops from no.5, it would only be temporary, as he has plenty of chances to gain points, starting with RG, and then the USO series. Don't foresee him to do worse than his 2015 or 2016. I foresee him going back into top four at least.

Lets remember Murray has opportunities to pick up big points in early Autumn and US Open as he missed one Masters event for the Olympics last year and the following one where he had an early exit. So the second part of the season is not all defend defend defend. The key is his injury and how it has or has not healed and affected or continues to affect him.

It is defending most of the time for Murray, don't forget he won all five events he played from Beijing to WTF. Djoko has more room for picking up points because he isn't defending winners' points but SF or F points during that same period. Murray also has to defend full 2500 points on grass whilst Djoko has only 90 points to defend. Djoko has 2200 whilst Murray has 960 points during the USO series, so it also depends on how both fair at both Wimbledon and USO this season.

Interesting update from Feds on whether or not he will play at the FO ...
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/17/tennis/roger-federer-french-open/

LuvSports! wrote:Interesting update from Feds on whether or not he will play at the FO ...
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/17/tennis/roger-federer-french-open/

Probably a smart move. He says the FO may be the only clay tournament he will play this year.  So it might be better just to skip the entire clay season and focus on the grass.  Clay Court matches tend to be long and energy sapping and Federer nowadays prefers to keep his matches short.

Has to be said, Fed taking the entirety of the clay court season off has made this race a little more interesting. It now looks like there is a prospect of Rafa taking back the number 1 ranking before Fed, although I suspect Fed will overhaul Rafa towards the end of the season. Could well have three number 1s this year.