When will Roger retake Number 1?

First topic message reminder :

With an expected victory tonight, Roger will be over 2,500 points clear of Andy year to date. He should also clean up Miami in the absence of Murray and probable absence of Novak, extending the gap to 3,500 points over Murray and 4,000 points over Novak. It's then likely to be only a matter of time before he gets back to Number 1.

It's unlikely to happen by RG. He'd basically need to win everything on the clay and Andy do poorly. However, Wimbledon is a possibility. I can see a scenario whereby Andy loses in the SF and Fed takes the title to get back to Number 1. If not, the US Open is an option but it's a near certainty to happen in the autumn season, when Andy defends every point going and Fed defends 0 points.

I just have a feeling he will take it back at the US Open, winning his third slam of the year in the process. What do others think?

Henman Bill wrote:Federer needs to win Shanghai and the WTF, perhaps.

thats 2500 points

considering the gap is 1860 points it means nadal would keep number one by getting >640 points

Nadal, getting to quarters in one master, basel and pekin and round 1/16 in the other master, plus winning one match in RR at WTF would work for him, so I think federer will need something more than that

lets imagine a normal (not too good not too bad) end of season for nadal

pekin: quarters 90
shanghai: semis 360
basel: semis 180
paris: quarters 180

wtf: gets to semifinal with 2 wins and loses there. 400

that would mean 1210 points so federer should then earn 3070 points out of 4000

Tough for Rog to get to number one. But he'll be number two barring some extraordinary results.
   Just wonder what position Fed thought he would be in by the end of 2017. Possibly he would have been delighted with anywhere in top 10, or at least top eight so he could qualify for the 02.
   Murray, now, finds himself in a similar position coming in to 2018. The same with Djoko.

Don't see Federer winning AO, IW & Miami again in 2018. So I think number one ranking has gone, unless Nadal either gets injured or loses very early everywhere (unlikely).

Can see Fed winning WTF, Basel & Shanghai. Even if he wins them and Paris it'll still require some assistance from Rafa.

It's a theoretical possibility - but the deficit is 1,960 points. If Fed wins Shanghai, Basle, and WTF he gets 3,000 points - that would be a pretty spectacular end of the season with no mistakes. Nadal would then need 1,050 points - which is not light, but very gettable if he stays fit.

I can't see Fed doing it.

I'd give Federer a 10% chance, and some of that 10% would be based on Rafa falling away badly at the end of the season, or being injured, or deciding to take a rest. One possibility is that Rafa decides to skip most of the rest of the season or take it lightly.

Federer does really need to win Shanghai though.

This thread was of course originally all about how things might pan out over the closing stages of the 2017 season.

The Number One spot didn’t seem to be a priority target for Federer then ; but things have taken on a different complexion in the wake of his impressively successful AO title defence.

Well-written, balanced piece here on the prospect of Federer becoming the oldest-ever (male or female) World No. 1 ........... around six years after he last held that rank.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/sports/tennis/roger-federer-rankings.html

Interesting what Paganini says about the difference between hard & clay - towards the bottom of that link.

@ JHM - it’s the clearest explanation / insight I’ve seen to date. But then Paganini sure knows his stuff !

So now we know the answer to the question posed by the original post - Monday February 19, 2018.
   Who needs a clay-court season to get to number one these days, eh?

This, from Roger Federer’s own Twitter feed :

“Apparently I’m the oldest tennis player with a # ranking. Somebody might have mentioned that to me already but I had a hard time hearing ”

A title win in Rotterdam will, I think, keep Rog at number one until at least the end of Indian Wells. Of course, if he plays Dubai he could strengthen his position, but he probably won't want to overtax himself before IW.
   Asked in an interview after the Haase match whether he preferred a year-end number one to another GS, Fed said he'd probably rather win Wimbledon than finish 2018 at the top.