Aviva Premiership - End of Season Run-In

League Positions

1) Wasps (74pts)
2) Exeter (69)
3) Saracens (68)
4) Leicester (52)
5) Bath (52)
6) Harlequins (47)
7) Northampton (47)
8) Gloucester (41)
9) Newcastle (40)
10) Sale (35)
11) Worcester (27)
12 Bristol (19)


Fixtures

Wasps - Bristol (a), Quins (a), Sarries (h)
Exeter - Quins (a), Saints (h), Glaws (a)
Saracens - Saints (a**), Bristol (h), Wasps (a)
Leicester - Falcons (h), Sale (h), Worcester (a)
Bath - Worcester (a), Gloucester (h), Sale (a)
Harlequins - Exeter (h), Wasps (h), Saints (a)
Northampton - Sarries (h**), Exeter (a), Quins (h)
Gloucester - Sale (h), Bath (a), Exeter (h)
Newcastle - Tigers (a), Worcester (h), Bristol (a)
Sale - Glaws (a), Tigers (a), Bath (h)
Worcester - Bath (h), Falcons (a), Tigers (h)
Bristol - Wasps (h), Sarries (a), Falcons (h)

** MK Bowl




Preview

With Bristol all but relegated, realistically we have three main areas of interest as the end of the season rapidly approaches:

The battle for a home semi.
All three sides at the top of the table will believe they can secure a home semi, but also fear they are the side who will miss out. Interestingly the first three rounds see them play the same three opponents (Bristol, Saints and Quin). While all of the pace setters will expect to win those games, Saints and Quins have their own fight for points and will not make things easy. That Wasps and Sarries have to meet in round 22 should favour Chiefs.

The battle for 4th
With the way that the fixtures end, the chances of anyone other than Leicester or Bath securing the final semi final spot are remote. Leicester currently sit in 4th, and a win at Twickenham against Bath in round 19 would see them planting one foot firmly into that semi-final. A Bath win opens things up and means that Leicester would require their rivals to drop points in the last 3 rounds.

Battle for 6th
The fight for the last automatic qualifying spot (7th will enter playoffs I think) in the main Euro competition sees Quins and Saints start with a head-start over 8th placed Gloucester, but with a much harder run in. Falcons would need to win all 4 remaining matches to have any chance of sneaking in.

My predictions:

Wasps to get 13pts
Exeter to get 14 pts
Saracens to get 15pts
Leicester to get 17pts
Bath to get 11pts
Quins to get 6 points
Saints to get 8pts
Glaws to get 8pts
Falcons to get 13pts
Sale to get 9pts
Worcester to get 2pts
Bristol to get nada

This would (I think) give a table looking like:

Wasps 82
Saracens 78
Exeter 78 (less wins)
Leicester 68
Bath 59
Harlequins 53
Northampton 53 (points difference)
Newcastle 49
Gloucester 48
Sale 39
Worcester 28
Bristol 17

Great write up LT.

From a Quins point of view, we should be targeting the two home games, get a win in one of those and then we ease a lot of pressure. We could potentially win a home game and away at Saints too, which should be more then enough for top 6.

Conversely we could lose all of them though, but even losing bp's may be enough.

I really don't think Saints will beat us, so I can't see where they are going to get their win from, so I think we will get top 6 by beating Saints away.

No Botica this year, see?

Of the top 3 Id say Exeter have the easiest run in, and Saracens the toughest individual game with an away trip to Wasps. Even with Tigers recent resurgance those 3 are in a competition of their own, and getting a top 2 seeding will be a significant advantage. After that in the playoffs its anyones game, wuite refreshing to have a number of genuine challengers.

Saints & Quins have a very tough list of fixtures but could play a major part in deciding those playoff seedings. Neither is likley to trouble the 4th place spot as a result though.

Tigers Bath is a huge gane, both will fancy winning all 3 of their other games so that becomes a must win for Bath. If they do that leaves the pressure on Tigers to win and get bonus points. All this coming at a time of major upheaval and with some upset players. Its one thing not being serious title contenders again but not making the playoffs would be a thing.

Theres a lot of gripes about the playoffs but it does keep the season alive and meaningful. That Bath Tigers game would be almost a dead rubber without them.

I find it interesting that Sarries, Saints & Bath all have home games at an alternate venue. I wonder if any (or all) could see their finishing position affected by giving up true home advantage.

Given how badly I'm doing on SuperBru at the moment, my predictions are no doubt wildly inaccurate. Nevertheless, the scenario I have is a number of teams will be separated on points difference. I have Exeter and Sarries both on 81 points and interestingly Saints, Quins and Falcons on 49 points.


Wasps 15 pts / 84 pts
Exeter 17 pts / 81 pts
Saracens 18 pts / 81 pts
Leicester 19 pts / 70 pts
Bath 10 pts / 58 pts
Harlequins 2 pts / 49 pts
Northampton 4 pts / 49 pts
Gloucester 7 pts / 47 pts
Newcastle 13 pts / 49 pts
Sale 8 pts / 38 pts
Worcester 1 pt / 27 pts
Bristol 0 pt / 17 pts

Good Stuff LT

From our point of view..6th is out of reach. But in truth im actually happy about that. We've had a great season and shown big improvements. And the new signings will only enhance that....

However..

We're still a work in progress and this is only one season away from relegation battles after being perennial bottom dwellers. We have to make sure we (Falcons fans) don't get ahead of ourselves!

I want to see us work on the areas of weakness...solidify mid table status and maybe with the new quality signings try to make a big impact in the 2nd tier European cup...maybe make the final!  

And continue to bring the academy lads through.

Of the last 4 games...id actually like to see 3 wins from the 4! Tigers away being the obvious tough one!

Pinched from HKC's post:

Falcons
Tait; Goneva, C. Harris, Socino, Watson; Delany, Young; Vickers, Cooper, D. Wilson; Green, Olmstead; M. Wilson, Welch, Hogg.

Replacements: Lawson, B. Harris, Welsh, Witty, Chick, Takulua, Hodgson, Sinoti.

Glaws
15. Tom Marshall; 14. Charlie Sharples, 13. Henry Trinder, 12. Mark Atkinson, 11. Jonny May; 10. Billy Twelvetrees, 9. Willi Heinz (capt); 1. Paddy McAllister, 2. Motu Matu'u, 3. John Afoa; 4. Tom Savage, 5. Mariano Galarza; 6. Ross Moriarty, 7. Jacob Rowan, 8. Ben Morgan

Replacements:

16. Richard Hibbard, 17. Yann Thomas, 18. Josh Hohneck, 19. Tom Denton, 20. Lewis Ludlow, 21. Callum Braley, 22. Lloyd Evans, 23. Henry Purdy

Massive set of games coming up:

Sale v Worcester - largely irrelevant
Falcons v Gloucester - winner can threaten to sneak into the top 6, loser will have nothing left to play for.
Bath v Leicester - Bath must win to keep top 4 hopes alive. Could the move to Twickenham backfire?
Exeter v Bristol - Surely 5 points for Exeter as they seek a home semi-final.
Saracens v Harlequins - Quins won the reverse fixture and have all the big names back. Sarries host this game at Wembley and will not want to fall further behind Exeter and Wasps.
Wasps v Northampton - Saints need to win as they try to secure a Top 6 finish, Wasps need to put teh lacklustre display in Dublin behind them and push on in the AP.

Not really that bothered if quins get 6. We aren't developing in a way that'll make us competitive in the Champions Cup, so we'll just be out in the group stages anyway. Would rather have a shake up of personnel and another challenge cup run.

We'll not get top six. Not good enough.

We've had a good season but are crawling towards the line now. Need a big game tomorrow night. Looks like it will be another big crowd (for us) at KP tomorrow night..

Delayney needs a monster of a game at 10. Prove to everyone why he was an AB. And sick note Davy Wilson needs a huge game as well. In fact the whole team owes us a huge game!

Delaney and Young surely guarantees quick ball for Socino and the outside backs.

Lots of unhappiness at the half backs on the unoffy...

OP amended to reflect this weekend's games.

The table has largely stayed the same with all teams in the same place they held prior to Round 19.

The Top 3 all secured try bonus point wins, but with Saracens looking the most impressive by some distance. Exeter would have expected to secure their TBP win much easier, though credit to Bristol for securing both bonus points. Saints fans will for second match in a row be scratching their heads and trying to work out how they lost to table toppers Wasps - who are currently showing a complete disregard to any sort of organised defence.

Led by George Ford, ably assisted by JJ and Watson, Bath ahd too much class in the backs for a very tired looking Leicester team. That reulst means both sides will continue to look at each other in the push for 4th - but let's face it both teams re a long way below the likes of Sarries and could be humiliated if they make the semi final. Repeating this fixture next season is probably the only way either side can make it to Twickenham in the near future.

Expected defeats, but in very different ways, for Quins and Saints leaves them neck and neck in the chase for 6th - with Falcons and Glaws surely too far behind, yet not out of the running just yet.

Bristol not mathematically relegated, and a display full of character from them. With the removal of play-offs for promotion next year they will surely bounce straight back.

LondonTiger wrote:Delaney and Young surely guarantees quick ball for Socino and the outside backs.

Well Delayney proved again what a woeful 10 he is....

Dissapointing if not surprising for Tigers. 4th spot is going to go right down to the wire.

I expect Saracens will have one eye on the semi final vs Munster so might rest players vs Saints.

If Saracens must play away in the playoffs so be it. They can win away especially with Exeter and Wasps currently looking shaky though that might change in the next 3 games.

Saints snatching defeat from the jaws of victory again. Myler again letting down his team. 5 tries and losing...

The amount of tries conceded by Exeter and Wasps should be a concern. Especially as Saracens defence is still so mean.

CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE HARLEQUINS
15 Phil Dollman
14 Olly Woodburn
13 Michele Campagnaro
12 Ollie Devoto
11 James Short
10 Henry Slade
9 Jack Maunder
1 Carl Rimmer
2 Jack Yeandle (capt)
3 Greg Holmes
4 Dave Dennis
5 Geoff Parling
6 Dave Ewers
7 Don Armand
8 Kai Horstmann
16 Luke Cowan-Dickie
17 Ben Moon
18 Tomas Francis
19 Ollie Atkins
20 Julian Salvi
21 Stuart Townsend
22 Gareth Steenson
23 Sam Hill

This weekends officials:

Harlequins v Exeter Chiefs
Referee: Wayne Barnes
Assistant Referees: JP Doyle, Paul Dix TMO: Sean Davey

Gloucester Rugby v Sale Sharks
Referee: Tom Foley
Assistant Referees: Adam Leal, Peter Allan TMO: Rowan Kitt

Leicester Tigers v Newcastle Falcons
Referee: Ian Tempest
Assistant Referees: Steve Lee, Tim Wigglesworth TMO: David Sainsbury

Worcester Warriors v Bath Rugby
Referee: Luke Pearce
Assistant Referees: Greg Macdonald, Ross Campbell TMO: Geoff Warren

Northampton Saints v Saracens
Referee: Matthew Carley
Assistant Referees: Wayne Falla, Gareth Copsey TMO: Graham Hughes

Bristol Rugby v Wasps
Referee: Greg Garner
Assistant Referees: Anthony Woodthorpe, Roger Baileff TMO: Stuart Terheege

Harlequins Team
15. Mike Brown
14. Marland Yarde
13. Joe Marchant
12. Jamie Roberts
11. Tim Visser
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care (C)

1. Joe Marler
2. Rob Buchanan
3. Kyle Sinckler
4. Charlie Matthews
5. James Horwill
6. Chris Robshaw
7. Luke Wallace
8. Mat Luamanu

16. Joe Gray
17. Mark Lambert
18. Will Collier
19. George Merrick
20. Dave Ward
21. Charlie Mulchrone
22. Tim Swiel
23. Alofa Alofa

Strong looking Quins team.

Sadly that means nothing this season! I expect a loss now, if we can get a lbp then i'll be comforted if not happy.

That Chiefs team looks good. The bench is particularly impressive. I can't see Quins enjoying this game very much though the return of a decent pack should help keep it closer.

No North for Saints. And Burrell back

So hows those predictions going?

Tigers look odds on to retain 4th spot, only Bath can take it and both have away trips to rubbish sides.

The top 3 spots are open with Saracens travelling to Wasps but needing a slip from Exeter to be plastic champions. Wasps can take it with better bonus points.
Exeter hold the whip hand though and should finish top. These 3 really look a class above, even with Tigers having improved their morale and results since Cockers went. With more uncertainty and changes happening its unlikely that they will carry much threat in the playoffs, a top 2 spot will make a big difference. Saracens in particular have a pretty horrible end to the season .. travelling to Wasps, a Euro final, odds on away to Wasps again ...and if they win that most likely Exeter at Twickers. Of the 3 whilst they might have the best quality squad they are the ones who are going to have the hardest time

Quins and Saints play for the 6th automatic Proper Euro Cup spot.

Newcastle vs Bristol is the only dead rubber, although Newcastle could finsih as high as 7th which would be a hell of a thing for them....real nosebleed territory for a club thats been hanging on by its teeth to premiership status for years. I bow to those who at the start of the season backed them to finish mid table.

AP End of season run in......

Can it be done naked with a fire extinguisher?

Only at the Rec - especially if you add in some heckling of kids.

Gooseberry wrote:

Newcastle vs Bristol is the only dead rubber, although Newcastle could finish as high as 7th which would be a hell of a thing for them....real nosebleed territory for a club thats been hanging on by its teeth to premiership status for years. I bow to those who at the start of the season backed them to finish mid table.

We should beat Bristol, and end a great season. Dean is definitely improving things slowly but surely. Experienced pros, with quality academy lads reminds me of what he did at Quins, but he's a lot more work to do up here so its taking a bit longer.

Good signings in the summer...

I just hope next season we get a fair run without injuries....lost some key players this season like our LH AND TH props for most of them. Just as well reliable old Rob Vickers and the AMAZING Jon Welsh have stayed fit!

Seems like a straight shoot out between Quins and Saints for the 6th place spot!
Gloucester pretty much out of the running and will likely focus on the Amlin final for European top table qualification.

Saints with home advantage and Quins 'infamous' away form this season - I am not filled with confidence.

propdavid_london wrote:Saints with home advantage and Quins 'infamous' away form this season - I am not filled with confidence.

OTOH a straight forward win is not enough. And we have won 1/11 against the top 6.

2 sides with big season highs and lows in terms of performance.

Our only high this season is Picamoles and he might not play

Is he injured? If fit I am sure he will play as he will definitely want to be involved in H-cup next season.

Yeah Sarries injured him. Might be back might not.

Unfortunately all our most influential players are a doubt. Lawes, Wood, Picamoles, Myler, North.

Christ, what happened to all of them?
Didn't see Lawes and Wood both played against Chiefs?

propdavid_london wrote:Christ, what happened to all of them?
Didn't see Lawes and Wood both played against Chiefs?

No, Wood was initially named but didn't feature. Training or warm up injury, not sure. Lawes had an injury but is going through HIA protocol. Myler and Picamoles both vs Sarries (Myler definitely out). North hasn't played last couple, not sure what it is.

That's an unlucky run of injuries right at the end of the season!

If all those players were out who'd come in to replace them?

Quins have now fielded the same team two games running for the first time this season. Other then Danny Care's early injury on Fri I think we came through the game unscathed, and Care may be fit to play this weekend, meaning we could get the same team out again which would be a big bonus.

Don't think we'll have enough to win this one, but we should deny Saints a tbp and hopefully can get a lbp of our own which'll see us over the line and securely in 6th place.

yappysnap wrote:That's an unlucky run of injuries right at the end of the season!

If all those players were out who'd come in to replace them?

Quins have now fielded the same team two games running for the first time this season. Other then Danny Care's early injury on Fri I think we came through the game unscathed, and Care may be fit to play this weekend, meaning we could get the same team out again which would be a big bonus.

Don't think we'll have enough to win this one, but we should deny Saints a tbp and hopefully can get a lbp of our own which'll see us over the line and securely in 6th place.

Yep bad timing and hopefully some will be back. With those out we would probably play:

Waller Hartley Brookes Day Ribbans Gibson Harrison Dickinson Groom Hanrahan Foden Mallinder Burrell Pisi Tuala

yappysnap wrote:That's an unlucky run of injuries right at the end of the season!

If all those players were out who'd come in to replace them?

Quins have now fielded the same team two games running for the first time this season. Other then Danny Care's early injury on Fri I think we came through the game unscathed, and Care may be fit to play this weekend, meaning we could get the same team out again which would be a big bonus.

Don't think we'll have enough to win this one, but we should deny Saints a tbp and hopefully can get a lbp of our own which'll see us over the line and securely in 6th place.

DC hasn't been in the best form recently though Yappy. He seems to be a bit of a penalty machine, and is guilty of some pretty poor kicking (something that he has been heavily criticised for in the past).
The first wasps try stands out, coming from a poor kick and a missed Marchant tackle.

From what I saw of that Saints v Chiefs game (admittedly only highlights) - Brookes looks really out of sorts, slow getting into the line - dropped off a number of tackles and scrimmaging wasn't anything to boast on.
Would hope that Rowntree will be telling the guys to attack his channel as much as possible.
I am with you yappy - don't think that Quins will win, but denying Saints a tbp and grabbing something for ourselves would be a decent return.

propdavid_london wrote:From what I saw of that Saints v Chiefs game (admittedly only highlights) - Brookes looks really out of sorts, slow getting into the line - dropped off a number of tackles and scrimmaging wasn't anything to boast on.  
Would hope that Rowntree will be telling the guys to attack his channel as much as possible.
I am with you yappy - don't think that Quins will win, but denying Saints a tbp and grabbing something for ourselves would be a decent return.  

Agreed but Dorian likes him which means 55 minutes guaranteed.

tigers could be missing for the weekend
Rizzo, Cole (England rest thing apparently), Cilliers, Slater, McCaffrey, Youngs (Same as Cole), Kitto, Mermoz, JPP, Veainu, Tait, Brady,

That's on top of long term injuries in Manu, Toomua, and Mulipola.

Worcester could have a real chance of beating us.

So that's a Tigers team of;

Genge, Youngs, Balmain
Barrow, Kitchener 
Williams, Hamilton, O'Connor 
Harrison, Burns 
Williams, Roberts
Thompstone, Worth, ???

Bench: McGuigan, Bateman, Betts, Fitzgerald, Thacker, White, Smith Thacker Jnr

Not a great deal of scope for rotation on top of the injuries. Worcester will fancy their chances of signing off on a high.

Betham still fit I think

Betts is in Australia Sam.

Welly wrote: Betts is in Australia Sam.

On loan or on holiday?

Brugnara and Bateman to bench then.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

Welly wrote: Betts is in Australia Sam.

On loan or on holiday?

Brugnara and Bateman to bench then.

loan at Sydney U.

propdavid_london wrote:

yappysnap wrote:That's an unlucky run of injuries right at the end of the season!

If all those players were out who'd come in to replace them?

Quins have now fielded the same team two games running for the first time this season. Other then Danny Care's early injury on Fri I think we came through the game unscathed, and Care may be fit to play this weekend, meaning we could get the same team out again which would be a big bonus.

Don't think we'll have enough to win this one, but we should deny Saints a tbp and hopefully can get a lbp of our own which'll see us over the line and securely in 6th place.

DC hasn't been in the best form recently though Yappy.  He seems to be a bit of a penalty machine, and is guilty of some pretty poor kicking (something that he has been heavily criticised for in the past).  
The first wasps try stands out, coming from a poor kick and a missed Marchant tackle.

That's true, his leadership doesn't even seem to be what it was last season either. Horwill is much more of a leader imo. As long as Karl's fit and ready for one more game before he hangs his boots up I think we'll be fine.