Aviva Premiership - End of Season Run-In

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League Positions

1) Wasps (74pts)
2) Exeter (69)
3) Saracens (68)
4) Leicester (52)
5) Bath (52)
6) Harlequins (47)
7) Northampton (47)
8) Gloucester (41)
9) Newcastle (40)
10) Sale (35)
11) Worcester (27)
12 Bristol (19)


Fixtures

Wasps - Bristol (a), Quins (a), Sarries (h)
Exeter - Quins (a), Saints (h), Glaws (a)
Saracens - Saints (a**), Bristol (h), Wasps (a)
Leicester - Falcons (h), Sale (h), Worcester (a)
Bath - Worcester (a), Gloucester (h), Sale (a)
Harlequins - Exeter (h), Wasps (h), Saints (a)
Northampton - Sarries (h**), Exeter (a), Quins (h)
Gloucester - Sale (h), Bath (a), Exeter (h)
Newcastle - Tigers (a), Worcester (h), Bristol (a)
Sale - Glaws (a), Tigers (a), Bath (h)
Worcester - Bath (h), Falcons (a), Tigers (h)
Bristol - Wasps (h), Sarries (a), Falcons (h)

** MK Bowl




Preview

With Bristol all but relegated, realistically we have three main areas of interest as the end of the season rapidly approaches:

The battle for a home semi.
All three sides at the top of the table will believe they can secure a home semi, but also fear they are the side who will miss out. Interestingly the first three rounds see them play the same three opponents (Bristol, Saints and Quin). While all of the pace setters will expect to win those games, Saints and Quins have their own fight for points and will not make things easy. That Wasps and Sarries have to meet in round 22 should favour Chiefs.

The battle for 4th
With the way that the fixtures end, the chances of anyone other than Leicester or Bath securing the final semi final spot are remote. Leicester currently sit in 4th, and a win at Twickenham against Bath in round 19 would see them planting one foot firmly into that semi-final. A Bath win opens things up and means that Leicester would require their rivals to drop points in the last 3 rounds.

Battle for 6th
The fight for the last automatic qualifying spot (7th will enter playoffs I think) in the main Euro competition sees Quins and Saints start with a head-start over 8th placed Gloucester, but with a much harder run in. Falcons would need to win all 4 remaining matches to have any chance of sneaking in.

Scottrf wrote:

yappysnap wrote:That's an unlucky run of injuries right at the end of the season!

If all those players were out who'd come in to replace them?

Quins have now fielded the same team two games running for the first time this season. Other then Danny Care's early injury on Fri I think we came through the game unscathed, and Care may be fit to play this weekend, meaning we could get the same team out again which would be a big bonus.

Don't think we'll have enough to win this one, but we should deny Saints a tbp and hopefully can get a lbp of our own which'll see us over the line and securely in 6th place.

Yep bad timing and hopefully some will be back. With those out we would probably play:

Waller Hartley Brookes Day Ribbans Gibson Harrison Dickinson Groom Hanrahan Foden Mallinder Burrell Pisi Tuala

Not a bad looking team really, and the backs look pretty decent. Home advantage and our poor away form may do for us.


But then this weekend our forwards were excellent, and if they can bring that again, I think we can easily get the better of that pack.

Welly wrote: tigers could be missing for the weekend
Rizzo, Cole (England rest thing apparently), Cilliers, Slater, McCaffrey, Youngs (Same as Cole), Kitto, Mermoz, JPP, Veainu, Tait, Brady,

That's on top of long term injuries in Manu, Toomua, and Mulipola.

Worcester could have a real chance of beating us.

Unless they're all going to drop out after late fitness tests it doesn't look that bad.

[size=36]Leicester Tigers (v Worcester Warriors, away, Saturday 4.00pm)[/size]
[size=36]15 Mathew Tait[/size]
[size=36]14 Adam Thompstone[/size]
[size=36]13 Jack Roberts[/size]
[size=36]12 Owen Williams[/size]
[size=36]11 Peter Betham[/size]
[size=36]10 Freddie Burns[/size]
[size=36]9 Ben Youngs[/size]
[size=36]1 Ellis Genge[/size]
[size=36]2 Tom Youngs (c)[/size]
[size=36]3 Dan Cole[/size]
[size=36]4 Dom Barrow[/size]
[size=36]5 Graham Kitchener[/size]
[size=36]6 Mike Williams[/size]
[size=36]7 Brendon O'Connor[/size]
[size=36]8 Luke Hamilton[/size]

[size=36]Replacements[/size]
[size=36]16 George McGuigan[/size]
[size=36]17 Greg Bateman[/size]
[size=36]18 Fraser Balmain[/size]
[size=36]19 Mike Fitzgerald[/size]
[size=36]20 Harry Thacker[/size]
[size=36]21 Sam Harrison[/size]
[size=36]22 Matt Smith[/size]
[size=36]23 George Worth[/size]

So Saints Injury List isn't too bad:

Waller
Hartley
Brookes
Lawes
Ribbans
Gibson
Wood
Picamoles
Groom
Mallinder
Foden
Burrell
Tuitavaki
North
Tuala

Would be much happier with Hanrahan 10 and Mallinder 12. Burrell and Tuitavake have never played together and Mallinder tries to do too much at 10. Not sure what Jim is thinking really.

Quins play

15- Brown
14- Yarde
13- Marchant
12- Roberts
11- Visser
10- Evans
9- Dickson
8- Luamanu
7- Wallace
6- Robshaw
5- Matthews
4- Horwill (c.)
3- Sinckler
2- Buchanan
1- Marler

Lambert, Gray, Collier, Merrick, Ward, Mulchrone, Swinson, Alofa


As good a team as we have missing Clifford and Care. Will be a good match I think

Scottrf wrote:So Saints Injury List isn't too bad:

Waller
Hartley
Brookes
Lawes
Ribbans
Gibson
Wood
Picamoles
Groom
Mallinder
Foden
Burrell
Tuitavaki
North
Tuala

Would be much happier with Hanrahan 10 and Mallinder 12. Burrell and Tuitavake have never played together and Mallinder tries to do too much at 10. Not sure what Jim is thinking really.

Hanrahan is reported to have picked up a shoulder injury. Myler also out, Mallinder 3rd choice 10 and Olver 4th (and so on the bench) before his summer move to Wuss. Another youngster not able to progress at Saints who looked a decent prospect.

Makes sense thanks. TBH I don't rate Olver, we shall see if he makes an impact after his move.

Scottrf wrote:Makes sense thanks. TBH I don't rate Olver, we shall see if he makes an impact after his move.

Heathcote and Mills are at Wuss already and they've stated the intention to try and sign a bigger name for the flyhalf shirt (Mills wants to concentrate on playing 12). So Olver will be at best third choice behind Heathcote and Mills (who despite not liking 10 plays well there). Could be fourth choice by next seasons start.

If he signed for a Championship club for a season he would get more game time and a better chance to make a name for himself.

Great start falcons

Scottrf wrote:So Saints Injury List isn't too bad:

Waller
Hartley
Brookes
Lawes
Ribbans
Gibson
Wood
Picamoles
Groom
Mallinder
Foden
Burrell
Tuitavaki
North
Tuala

Would be much happier with Hanrahan 10 and Mallinder 12. Burrell and Tuitavake have never played together and Mallinder tries to do too much at 10. Not sure what Jim is thinking really.

Hopefully of retiring; again a game we had in our grasp and he takes off people in the last game of the season that were still performing well. It changed the balance of the side and we lose the co-ordination. Hartley, Groom, Ribbans can all play a full 80, so why change them when you need your best players. We won, but not by enough. Too many mistakes as we lost the nouse of Hartley and the speed of Groom. JPD reffing the scrum didn't help either, Marler was constantly pulling down, not sure his elbow was ever horizontal. TV picked up on it, why could the TMO not pass on a word of advice?

Have a happy retirement Jim, I hope.

LondonTiger wrote:My predictions:

Wasps 82
Saracens 78
Exeter 78 (less wins)
Leicester 68
Bath 59
Harlequins 53
Northampton 53 (points difference)
Newcastle 49
Gloucester 48
Sale 39
Worcester 28
Bristol 17

vs

Wasps 84
Exeter 84
Sarries 77
Leicester 66
Bath 59
Quins 52
Saints 52
Newcastle 49
Glaws 46
Sale 40
Worcester 30
Bristol 20

Guess I will not be applying for mystic megs job.

Not a bad season over all for a few teams. Certainly Wasps, Exeter and Falcons will all be pleased.

Tigers are a real surprise with all the upheaval in the club and to make the play offs is an achievement.

Bath, Glaws and Quins will all be a little disappointed with how their seasons turned out, although at least two of those clubs made it into the ECC next season.

Saints, Worcester and Bris can all try to forget about their crap seasons now.

Saracens team to face Exeter Chiefs

15 Alex Goode (230)
14 Chris Ashton (117)
13 Marcelo Bosch (96)
12 Duncan Taylor (101)
11 Chris Wyles (226)
10 Owen Farrell (c) (151)
9 Richard Wigglesworth (185)

1 Mako Vunipola (118)
2 Jamie George (172)
3 Vincent Koch (15)
4 Maro Itoje (74)
5 George Kruis (136)
6 Michael Rhodes (56)
7 Jackson Wray (172)
8 Billy Vunipola (77)

Replacements
16 Schalk Brits (202)
17 Titi Lamositele (46)
18 Petrus Du Plessis (158)
19 Jim Hamilton (75)
20 Schalk Burger (25)
21 Ben Spencer (100)
22 Alex Lozowski (31)
23 Mike Ellery (40)

Brad Barritt injured.

CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE SARACENS
15 Phil Dollman
14 Jack Nowell
13 Ian Whitten
12 Ollie Devoto
11 James Short
10 Gareth Steenson (capt)
9 Stuart Townsend
1 Ben Moon
2 Luke Cowan-Dickie
3 Harry Williams
4 Dave Dennis
5 Geoff Parling
6 Kai Horstmann
7 Don Armand
8 Thomas Waldrom
16 Jack Yeandle
17 Carl Rimmer
18 Tomas Francis
19 Mitch Lees
20 Sam Simmonds
21 Will Chudley
22 Henry Slade
23 Michele Campagnaro

Devoto starts instead of Slade

Wasps team to stuff Leicester Tigers

15. Kurtley Beale
14. Christian Wade
13. Elliot Daly
12. Jimmy Gopperth
11. Willie Le Roux
10. Danny Cipriani
9. Joe Simpson

1. Matt Mullan
2. Ashley Johnson
3. Phil Swainston
4. Joe Launchbury (c)
5. Matt Symons
6. James Haskell
7. Thomas Young
8. Nathan Hughes

16. Tommy Taylor
17. Simon McIntyre
18. Marty Moore
19. James Gaskell
20. Guy Thompson
21. Dan Robson
22. Alapati Leiua
23. Josh Bassett

Unavailable through injury

Jake Cooper-Woolley (toe)
Kearnan Myall (knee)
Sam Jones (leg and ankle)
Kyle Eastmond (Achilles)
Carlo Festuccia (hand)
Alex Lundberg (ankle)
George Edgson (knee)

Barritt is a loss as he's a defensive rock. Be interesting to see how the players regroup after the celebrations of last weekend. Clermont provided a very physical game and now the majority of that 15 are going up against a very physical Chiefs team.

Taylor is a good player as long as he can stay fit, that's one of his biggest issues. Sure he doesn't have Barritt's organisation skills but will pose different problems.

As an attacking threat I'd say it's fair to say Taylor is superior to Barritt.

An injury to either centres would I expect lead to Farrell shifting to 12 which would be intriguing as he's not played there much at club level.


Quite amusing that for the 2nd consecutive weekend, Saracens will be facing an ex Saracens winger in the opposition line up.

beshocked wrote:Taylor is a good player as long as he can stay fit, that's one of his biggest issues. Sure he doesn't have Barritt's organisation skills but will pose different problems.

As an attacking threat I'd say it's fair to say Taylor is superior to Barritt.

An injury to either centres would I expect lead to Farrell shifting to 12 which would be intriguing as he's not played there much at club level.


Quite amusing that for the 2nd consecutive weekend, Saracens will be facing an ex Saracens winger in the opposition line up.

Exeter have gone like for like in centre size. There's going to be some hefty collisions there so wouldn't surprise me to see replacements in that area. Lozowski could slip in at 12 or at least interchange with Farrell.

That's a game that'll be decided up front. Who can gain the momentum and source quick ball in the opponents half will win. Both defences are brutal and it's two big packs.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

beshocked wrote:Taylor is a good player as long as he can stay fit, that's one of his biggest issues. Sure he doesn't have Barritt's organisation skills but will pose different problems.

As an attacking threat I'd say it's fair to say Taylor is superior to Barritt.

An injury to either centres would I expect lead to Farrell shifting to 12 which would be intriguing as he's not played there much at club level.


Quite amusing that for the 2nd consecutive weekend, Saracens will be facing an ex Saracens winger in the opposition line up.

Exeter have gone like for like in centre size. There's going to be some hefty collisions there so wouldn't surprise me to see replacements in that area. Lozowski could slip in at 12 or at least interchange with Farrell.

That's a game that'll be decided up front. Who can gain the momentum and source quick ball in the opponents half will win. Both defences are brutal and it's two big packs.

Exeter are a side who have managed to perform very well despite a lack of big marquee names. They've been doing that since they got promoted.

Looking at the 2 packs on paper, Saracens should win the battle up front - 5 Lions with 4 of them in the front five but obviously rugby isn't played on paper. Also Exeter regularly play as well if not better collectively than teams with higher profile names.

Big if but if the Saracens pack perform collectively like they did last week, I cannot see Exeter winning. That's a big ask though.

Will be interesting to see which will be more important - being fresh or being battle hardened.

Having a rest isn't always a benefit. I know the general belief is that Saracens will be tired and sure they might well be but winning last week will have given the team a big boost in confidence and with most key men playing well it's not as if Saracens side is going to Sandy Park deflated.

I doubt the 80 minutes against Clermont will affect Sarries anywhere near as much as the alcohol they consumed on Saturday night.

The weather may play its part especially at Coventry today, but lets hope it stays dry for the Wasps back line, bless em....

All 4 teams will be motivated and reasonably confident of their chances of making the final, but you could argue Saracens maybe a little 'after the lords Mayor's show' and so might take their foot off the gas. I would be surprised however if this were the case, unlike England and Wasps in Dublin, Sarries coaches appear a notch above in there application.

I want a Wasps v's Saracens final but that's not a prediction.

Exeter will push on at some point and it could well be today. Equally Leicester have some tasty forwards and with Burns moving on and everyone pulling for Tom Youngs, the motivational factors are there for them to beat the upstarts.

Here's hoping for a couple of great games to do all involved credit. Enjoy.

Weird to think that Tigers are two games from winning the league, after a pretty terrible season, fairly average performances and what is probably the worst tigers team to in a decade. Just shows that these things aren't won on paper or even on individual talent.

yappysnap wrote:Weird to think that Tigers are two games from winning the league, after a pretty terrible season, fairly average performances and what is probably the worst tigers team to in a decade. Just shows that these things aren't won on paper or even on individual talent.

It's what's been winding me up all season, Yappysnap. People are saying our tight five isn't as good as previous or we need this or we need that. It's Horlicks. What we need is a cohesive tactical game plan with a working defensive structure. We have the players to do the job.

Wasps will stuff us today. Hopefully next season will see us with a a game plan that can maximise our players ability as opposed to minimise it.

Some of those Saracens bodies who played last weekend are struggling today. Rhodes, Ashton and Billy all having some treatment early doors. Rhodes and Ashton already off.

Scarries scrum getting hammered

carpet baboon wrote:Scarries scrum getting hammered

They certainly are.

What's surprising me is that the Chiefs have got to Farrell. Uncharacteristic mistakes and Chiefs first points came after a horrible long pass that got nowhere near his man and set Short running for the line. Earlier panicking when caught behind a retreating scrum saw him take contact when isolated and concede a pen. Is Barritt's injury impacting him the most?

Another Farrell interception and Chiefs go 80m and force Sarries to carry the ball over for a 5m Chiefs scrum.

First time in a while I have seen sarries this rattled

Barnes bottles the decision and Sarries escape. We'll Barnes bottled several decisions there because Wigglesworth was clearly blocked off after Mako had dropped the scrum (again).

formerly known as Sam wrote:

carpet baboon wrote:Scarries scrum getting hammered

They certainly are.

What's surprising me is that the Chiefs have got to Farrell. Uncharacteristic mistakes and Chiefs first points came after a horrible long pass that got nowhere near his man and set Short running for the line. Earlier panicking when caught behind a retreating scrum saw him take contact when isolated and concede a pen. Is Barritt's injury impacting him the most?

Classic Farrell - shortcoming of his throughout his career - too easily rattled

Unable to watch the game so relying on updates. Sounds like Saracens look absolutely knackered.

Are they so battered from 2 brutal weeks that it'd be better for Wasps and Tigers if they win instead of Exeter?

Fuzzy Dunlop wrote:Unable to watch the game so relying on updates. Sounds like Saracens look absolutely knackered.

Are they so battered from 2 brutal weeks that it'd be better for Wasps and Tigers if they win instead of Exeter?

Possibly. Exeter will be fairly shattered should they get through this. Sarries are failing to function above 80% but their tackling is still hard and they are throwing the kitchen sink at the breakdown.

Sarries tight 5 having to go deep. George came off for Brits on 45 minutes, but due to the drop-off in other positions Sarries are keeping their starters on, they must be out on their feet.

Great game this. I didn't give Exeter much of a chance, but they have bossed this game for large periods.

You can't jump into a tackle. This is possibly the worst Barnes performance I've seen.

Jumped into a tackle. Thought that wasn't allowed?

Farce.

robbo277 wrote:Sarries tight 5 having to go deep. George came off for Brits on 45 minutes, but due to the drop-off in other positions Sarries are keeping their starters on, they must be out on their feet.

Great game this. I didn't give Exeter much of a chance, but they have bossed this game for large periods.

Kiss of death. Sorry Chiefs fans...

There s no law which says you can't jump into a tackle.

Chief chief chiefs

What a kick that is.

Oh wow. Incredible

Yes

It is deserved.

What a kick by Slade to set up the line-out! Fair play to Exeter, never giving up.

Great kick to the corner..........

Sarries didn't deserve it.

No 7&1/2 wrote:There s no law which says you can't jump into a tackle.

It's generally considered to come under Law 10 dangerous play.

Feel for Sarries their maul defence has been incredible but they couldn't hold out for one more time. They wasted the wind advantage in the first half and have looked pretty tired throughout. Got to respect their drive and commitment to drag themselves back in.

That kick from Slade took balls, well done Exeter thought they were beaten

I hope they are happy with their memories created today.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:There s no law which says you can't jump into a tackle.

It's generally considered to come under Law 10 dangerous play.

Feel for Sarries their maul defence has been incredible but they couldn't hold out for one more time. They wasted the wind advantage in the first half and have looked pretty tired throughout. Got to respect their drive and commitment to drag themselves back in.

I( didn't think it was jumping into a tackle - he jumped after he was tackled. His feet were on the ground when the tackle was made