Scotland v Australia 25th November

Scotland v Australia
25th November 2017
BT Murrayfield Stadium

ko 14.30
Coverage BBC/BT Sport

While the overall balance in this fixture leans heavily towards Australia, it is also fair to say that the Aussie's don't have the hex over Scotland in the same way that the All Blacks do. Scotland have won on several occasions, including their most recent fixture in Australia in the summer and before that was the infamous (from a Scottish perspective) WC quarter final, with a certain dubious reffing decision, that may have had an impact on the result.

Australia were in the middle of a post WC slump during the summer, from which they have largely recovered now, but similarly Scotland were missing a few key players and it could well be argued are a more complete side now.

Probably more influential on the result will be what the two games this weekend have taken out of the two teams, particularly in terms of injured players.

Australia ended up well beaten by England, but with a score line that did not really reflect the match, in fact, with a few of the more marginal calls going their way, the result could easily have gone the other way. They did however worryingly run badly out of steam in the last 10 mins when the match ran away from them.

Scotland, on the other hand, despite taking a horrible injury toll against NZ, actually finished the game the stronger team and how often can that be said when playing the blackness.

My worries for Scotland are that they may have lost, from an already inexperienced side, just one or two players to many; as well as just how can they possibly get themselves back up again after playing so well and getting nothing to show for it. This match will actually be a massive test for them in terms of their progress. Are they just a team that can get themselves up for a big game, or can they be consistently good now and back up a performance with another. In the 6N last year and on the summer tour, they failed to do that and to move forward, they need to start doing so.

Gee, they don't have nothing to show for it. Jamie Bhatti, Rambo, George Turner, Luke Hamilton, Ben Toolis are all international novices. They went toe to toe with the world champions and had them on the ropes for most of the second half. That experience is money in the bank. They will learn from it and profit from it.

Harrowing scenes from the Scotland debrief session this morning...



I'd wager we can add Mafro, Hamilton, Dunbar and Watson to our list of injured including but not limited to: Maitland, Bennett, Taylor, Laidlaw, Richie Gray, Dickinson, Nel, Ford, Reid, Dell).

Don't know about Marfo, who just looked battered and will hopefully be able to be patched up for one more half of action.

Dunbar, Hamilton, Watson and Hamilton I am pretty sure will be out and we don't know what other damage was done unseen and masked by the adrenaline pumping during the game. No-one knew that Wilson and Swinson got injured last week.

Wilson should be back this week, which should mean a back row of Barclay, CDP and Wilson, which I would be happy enough with. In terms of back row still in the squad, it would have to be Bradbury or Richie to bench. JB can still play OS, so that combo might not be so bad. Bradbury may not be a bad impact player to come on either, he would probably just shade it for me.

With Dunbar out, I might go for a Jones/Harris combo in the centre. I would worry a bit about the two big Aussie centres charging in at Horne for the whole game. Horne I think can add value when the game starts to break up a bit with his illusive running and will also cover 10.

The front row minus our two best THs is a bit scary though and Australia are no mugs in the scrum these days. Surely got to go for the experience of JW to start this one. I am not convinced about Berghan as a starter but it does sound like we are down to our last 2 fit props on that side. There is an argument for Sutherland to bench as well, but is he really fit enough for international rugby yet after so long out?

Possibly an argument for GG to start as well over Toolis, he looked pretty good when he came on, not that Toolis played badly.

I also though that Lee Jones had a very good game, probably his best ever for Scotland considering who he was playing against. I am sure he will be picked again and Maitland can concentrate on getting properly fit again.

Also, would you rather be a Welsh fan looking forward to Saturday with that triumph over Georgia behind you, or us totally demoralised by our latest humbling defeat?

jimbopip wrote:Also, would you rather be a Welsh fan looking forward to Saturday with that triumph over Georgia behind you, or us totally demoralised by our latest humbling defeat?

Careful Jim, don't tempt fate.

I don't expect the Georgia game will have any relevance on the Wales v Blacks game, all that Gats will have learnt from it is that some of his backups are not really up to it. We were not great against Samoa remember, and they got beaten by Romania yesterday! I imagine that Wales will give them a decent game as well, though they will still lose.

In international rugby, to some extent a win is a win. We don't do 'moral victories' remember.

Aus put the England scrum on notice with Kepu and Sio going great guns. I expect it will be easy penalties for them unless Welsh starts.

If we are short in the back 3, Maitland is fit to play but that is not where we are really struggling. We have 4 of our first 5 choice centres crocked leaving us with a choice of Harris/Grigg at 13 and H Jones to 12 or calling up Johnson (my preferred option) who was Toonie's first choice 12 in Europe.

I would like Wilson to be put on the bench and to start with Ritchie in this one. He has earned a cap with his play this season at 6/7. Barclay is more of a 6.5 at this point and Ritchie can fulfill the same role on one of the flanks a la Cowan in the World Cup.

Gilchrist did enough to show why he is trusted at this level. If he starts, I won't complain as much as I want to see Cummings and Toolis supplant him.

Hazel Sapling wrote:

If we are short in the back 3, Maitland is fit to play but that is not where we are really struggling. We have 4 of our first 5 choice centres crocked leaving us with a choice of Harris/Grigg at 13 and H Jones to 12 or calling up Johnson (my preferred option) who was Toonie's first choice 12 in Europe.

I would not disagree with Johnson if he was qualified for Scotland. Unfortunately he is not, needs to do another year. Definitely one for the future though.

12 options are Horne, Burleigh or Jones if Dunbar is out, which seems likely.

I think I would go:
12. Jones
13. Harris (I don't think he got much of a chance last time out)

Horne and McGuigan on the bench.

BigGee wrote:

Hazel Sapling wrote:

If we are short in the back 3, Maitland is fit to play but that is not where we are really struggling. We have 4 of our first 5 choice centres crocked leaving us with a choice of Harris/Grigg at 13 and H Jones to 12 or calling up Johnson (my preferred option) who was Toonie's first choice 12 in Europe.

I would not disagree with Johnson if he was qualified for Scotland. Unfortunately he is not, needs to do another year. Definitely one for the future though.

12 options are Horne, Burleigh or Jones if Dunbar is out, which seems likely.

I think I would go:
12. Jones
13. Harris (I don't think he got much of a chance last time out)

Horne and McGuigan on the bench.

Whoops, thought he qualified this year. Forgot about Burleigh; have them the wrong way round.

This could be game of November. Scotland for the win.

I have to say I thought Horne looked very good on Sat night when he came on so I'd certainly have him starting at 12 if Dunbar is out. Harris on bench probably ahead of Burleigh.

BigGee wrote:Don't know about Marfo, who just looked battered and will hopefully be able to be patched up for one more half of action.

Dunbar, Hamilton, Watson and Hamilton I am pretty sure will be out and we don't know what other damage was done unseen and masked by the adrenaline pumping during the game. No-one knew that Wilson and Swinson got injured last week.

Jaysus. Really? All of them? Is this based on Corporal Wilson Fear or backed up with anecdotal stuff.

I suspect a aus backlash and a deflated scotland. we're doomed

TJ wrote:I suspect a aus backlash and a deflated scotland.  we're doomed

Dunno, I thought the Scot side was impressive and can see a win here. Oz effort was undone by a lack of accuracy in execution, not effort, and that will be hard to fix in a week.

Scotland have to get their backs away when they can and get the points up early. The English bench nailed them at the end and Scotland need to keep that pressure on.

I just cant see the Wallabies getting up for this as much as they did for England. Theyre there for the taking.

Taylorman wrote:

TJ wrote:I suspect a aus backlash and a deflated scotland.  we're doomed

Dunno, I thought the Scot side was impressive and can see a win here. Oz effort was undone by a lack of accuracy in execution, not effort, and that will be hard to fix in a week.

Scotland have to get their backs away when they can and get the points up early. The English bench nailed them at the end and Scotland need to keep that pressure on.

I just cant see the Wallabies getting up for this as much as they did for England. Theyre there for the taking.

The problem is we had a number of key injuries before the AIs and we've picked even more up along the way. Chances are we're going to have to play a fairly experimental/inexperienced team. We somehow got away with it against New Zealand but there's only so many injuries we can take!

50% win rate based on the last 6 games:
[th]26[/th][th]27[/th][th]28[/th][th]29[/th][th]30[/th][th]31[/th]

21 November 2009	Murrayfield, Edinburgh	9 – 8	Scotland	2009 Autumn International
5 June 2012	Hunter Stadium, Newcastle	6 – 9	Scotland	Scotland Tour of Australasia
23 November 2013	Murrayfield, Edinburgh	15 – 21	Australia	2013 Autumn International
18 October 2015	Twickenham Stadium, London, England	35 – 34	Australia	2015 Rugby World Cup Quarter-final
12 November 2016	Murrayfield, Edinburgh	22 – 23	Australia	2016 Autumn International
17 June 2017	Allianz Stadium, Sydney	19 – 24	Scotland	2017 Mid-year test

It's always seriously bloody close though.

Saracens wing Sean Maitland and Glasgow Warriors hooker Fraser Brown were added to the Scotland squad today ahead of this Saturday’s match against Australia at BT Murrayfield (kick-off 2.30pm) – live on BBC and BT Sport.

The pair – both on 28 caps – recently returned to fitness following knee and ankle injuries respectively and will now train fully with the national team ahead of the third and final Autumn Test at the home of Scottish rugby.

Maitland last featured for Scotland against France in this year’s RBS 6 Nations, when a rib injury sustained in a mid-championship return to club duty brought an end to his part in the test campaign.

He went on to represent Saracens en route to their Champions Cup triumph however other a sequence of untimely injuries saw him miss the final, the chance of an international return in the summer tour, as well as recent tests against Samoa and New Zealand.

Hooker Fraser Brown played a prominent part in Scotland’s summer tour, starting the national team’s historic win over this Saturday’s opponents in Sydney and coming off the bench in the first and third tests against Italy in Singapore and Fiji in Suva.

Good to have them back fit, although shame they're not props!

I suspect Brown will come straight onto the bench, although it would be a little harsh on Turner.

Not sure if we desperately need Maitland although he may end up on the bench too.

George Carlin wrote:50% win rate based on the last 6 games:





[th]26[/th][th]27[/th][th]28[/th][th]29[/th][th]30[/th][th]31[/th]

21 November 2009	Murrayfield, Edinburgh	9 – 8	Scotland	2009 Autumn International
5 June 2012	Hunter Stadium, Newcastle	6 – 9	Scotland	Scotland Tour of Australasia
23 November 2013	Murrayfield, Edinburgh	15 – 21	Australia	2013 Autumn International
18 October 2015	Twickenham Stadium, London, England	35 – 34	Australia	2015 Rugby World Cup Quarter-final
12 November 2016	Murrayfield, Edinburgh	22 – 23	Australia	2016 Autumn International
17 June 2017	Allianz Stadium, Sydney	19 – 24	Scotland	2017 Mid-year test

It's always seriously bloody close though.

So if there is a Nine in the final scoreline, then Scotland have won?  Interesting.

Dunbar tweated last night that he came off for a head knock. He seemed fine afterwards and was swapping shirts with Sonny Bill.

He and Zander will have to go through the return to play protocols, so will both be touch and go. I would be surprised if both were fit.

Can't see Hamilton, who was in an ankle boot and on crutches, or Watson, who looked in a lot of pain with a back injury even before he went off, being fit.

Still much better news on the Brown and Maitland front and I can see both of them being on the bench. Maitland played a full game on Friday and so should be fit if they wanted to start him. Would be hard on Jonsey though, who did play well.

BigGee wrote:Dunbar tweated last night that he came off for a head knock. He seemed fine afterwards and was swapping shirts with Sonny Bill.

He and Zander will have to go through the return to play protocols, so will both be touch and go. I would be surprised if both were fit.

Can't see Hamilton, who was in an ankle boot and on crutches, or Watson, who looked in a lot of pain with a back injury even before he went off, being fit.

Still much better news on the Brown and Maitland front and I can see both of them being on the bench. Maitland played a full game on Friday and so should be fit if they wanted to start him. Would be hard on Jonsey though, who did play well.

Might not be Jones that gets dropped. Seymour had a bit of a mare on Sat. He's just not looking right at all. Maybe it's injury, maybe its fatigue. Whatever it is, it could lead to him dropping out.

Yeah I think we have to rule out Hamilton and Watson. If Wilson is fit, I expect him to slot straight back into the starting line-up, with Ritchie or Bradbury on the bench. I also think Brown has to come onto the bench if he really is fit (with the recoveries him and Dunbar have made recently from nasty looking injuries, Glasgow's medical team deserve a lot of credit IMO). I just feel that, for all his promise, Turner's scrummaging isn't good enough for this level, and Aus would target that.

If Dunbar isn't fit, Toonie has a tricky decision to make. I think Horne has played well this AI, but him starting would leave a rather lightweight midfield against a bruising Aus one. Then again, none of the other options particularly inspire me TBH, so I think it's still our best option.

If Fagerson isn't fit, then I think Welsh should start, for the same reasons as I think Brown should bench.

This is a vital game for Scotland. Win it, and you can say the AIs were a success. Lose it, and - despite understandable mitigating circumstances re injuries - it's in danger of becoming another false dawn.

The problem is that after last weekend Scotland have something which is normally hugely problematic as far as their performances go.

And that is hope.

True lostinwales. I think Scotland will be under a bit of pressure. Used to being the underdogs but in this case....

Both teams have a lot to play for and of course there is spice in this fixture after the last few games.

Tough to call.

Think he will start Berghan if Fagerson is not ready. Play Marfo, McInally and Berghan (all Edinburgh) to start and finish with Bhatti, Brown and Welsh (all present/former Glasgow).

Amazing to look at that front row. To think we are missing Dickinson, Dell, Reid, Nel and Fagerson, and we may not get completely outgunned to the point we lose our own put-in.

An aside, did Sutherland go to SA or is he in the Scotland squad? Would he bench?

Sutherland was called into the sco squad and was training with the team pre match (or at least holding tackle bags) so he didn't travel.

More encouraging noises than you might imagine coming out of the Scotland camp concerning the injury situation.

McFarland suggesting that all the players from last weekend, including Hamilton, will be in the selection mix for this weekend.

It is going to be interesting to see what team we do get out, especially with Maits and Brown coming in as well.

Hamilton was getting oxygen on the pitch, thought his one looked serious.

Where did you see that Biggee?

Rugby pass have done a very good analysis of Scotland's midfield defence, particularly focusing on SBW. They single out Huw Jones for criticism but in his defence (excuse the pun):

- The NZ midfield is probably the most difficult midfield to defend against in world rugby
- 13 is by far the most difficult position to defend, and you're very exposed having to make very quick decisions that leave you floundering if you get them wrong

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/analysis-sonny-bill-williams-unleashed-scotland

Australia will definitely be targeting this as they have a similarly potent attacking midfield

RDW_Scotland wrote:Where did you see that Biggee?

The Torygraph, following a link from Twitter (I certainly don't buy or subscribe to it, even though its rugby coverage is pretty good!). He was also none to impressed with Kieran Read!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2017/11/20/scotland-coach-calls-cynical-blacks-captain-kieran-read-scottish/

Australia will be angry and up for this, but so will Scotland. I reckon if the Murrayfield crowd get going, Scotland could edge this.

Australia's tactics of letting Beale join the line, and changing where their big backs crop up means there is often space behind them and a smart backline can exploit that. It will defend on some very committed defence, and bad weather would definitely help.

What's the weather predicted to be like?

Wet weather conditions do IMO generally seem to work against the Aussies and could swing in Scotland's favour.

Call in the Sioux witchdoctor.

Cold and dry is the forecast currently. I am keeping a close eye on this one myself as I am going up for the match.

The days when Scotland were considered a lucky wet weather team are fortunately well behind us. Good playing conditions will suit us as much, if not more than them as I think that we can move the ball better than they can.

I still suspect it will come down to who has got the most juice left in the tank after last weekend. Australia did drop off very badly in the last 10 mins against England and are at the end of a very long season. This will be their 4th test in 4 weeks.

It will be a big ask for both sides though to get themselves back up and playing at their best again after two difficult defeats for different reasons.

Meh. Scotland's pack is down to the bare bones, and likely to be fairly knackered, so not sure bad weather benefits them at all TBH. This team is set up to attack with good ball handlers all over the pitch, so would much prefer a dry day. Current weather forecast is for good weather Friday to Sunday BTW.

That sounds like reasonable news on the injury front, though I think MacFarland may be putting a rather overly optimistic spin on things.

Scotland kicked generally very well against NZ (one slightly overcooked one from Price aside), and certainly Australia seemed to struggle with Care's little dinks behind the defence, so that might be an area for Scotland to target.

On the subject of kicking, I've noticed that Aus seem to no longer use the box kick option. I suspect this is because Genia gets charged down rather a lot. Instead, they set up the ruck, and drop Foley (sometimes Beale) quite deep in the pocket to make the clearance kick. While this all but removes the charge-down possibility, it does mean that you can make decent territory gains.

BigCee dry conditions play into Aussie hands.... makes it easier for them to hold the ball and attack themselves.

Scotland might have changed their style but being able to adapt to different weather conditions is still important in rugby.


Scotland leak too many points as well since moving to this more attacking style. It has allowed sides more opportunity to go on the attack themselves.

It certainly makes for a more exciting game for neutrals but it has meant Scotland have been a bit more vulnerable.

I've criticised England's performances which have been less eyecatching than Scotland but England have been more difficult to defeat because the defence has been superior.

Defence is an area, Scotland can't neglect.

New Zealand scored 22 points on Saturday, in dry conditions. That's 15 fewer than their average this year. It took Scotland being down to 14 men through injury to their defensive organiser for NZ to finally score a try. No one is saying Scotland should neglect their defence, but they are saying that in this case wet weather conditions would on balance hinder Scotland more than it would help them.

Mad for Chelsea I am not trying to detract from Scotland's battling performance vs NZ but they conceded a lot of points vs the likes of Fiji,Samoa and England.

Scotland defence has not been a brick wall and it's something that will be very much tested vs Australia.

The Australians will relish having dry conditions against a side that has in general has had a leakier defence than let's say England.

I think it will be excellent from a neutral perspective with dry conditions - both Australia and Scotland looking to attack but could be frustating from a defence point of view if it's the game is open and a bit loose.

Lovely dry conditions isn't going to be uncomfortable for the Aussies.

Nor are lovely dry conditions going to be uncomfortable for Scotland.

Scotland's defence has been uneven in recent times. They're generally either very good (vs Ireland, Wales and Italy in the 6N, vs Aus in Sydney, vs NZ) or very poor (vs England, vs Fiji - albeit with a mostly second string team, vs Samoa) with little middle ground. They will have to bring the intensity of the first lot of games to this one, otherwise it could get messy.

However, you seem to be saying that wet conditions would inconvenience the Australian team more than it would Scotland, which I don't believe is true.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Nor are lovely dry conditions going to be uncomfortable for Scotland.

.... you seem to be saying that wet conditions would inconvenience the Australian team more than it would Scotland, which I don't believe is true.

Well, you see the point I suppose is that when all is said and done, Scottish sides are more familiar with rain than sun...like all of us mostly, because rugby mostly gets played in our damp NH winters.

Now, does that mean Scotland want wet weather and can't play in dry weather? Not a bit. It simply means that if bad weather (rain, mist, dampness etc) does turn up, Scotland will know more about adapting to play in it.

Reasonable point. If it rains then Scotland have an advantage with the conditions.

NOpe - if it rains scotlands quick passing and offloading game is negated. good weather our advantage as we can play to our strengths

TJ wrote:NOpe - if it rains scotlands quick passing and offloading game is negated.  good weather our advantage as we can play to our strengths

Wasn't my point but no matter

RDW_Scotland wrote:Rugby pass have done a very good analysis of Scotland's midfield defence, particularly focusing on SBW. They single out Huw Jones for criticism but in his defence (excuse the pun):

- The NZ midfield is probably the most difficult midfield to defend against in world rugby
- 13 is by far the most difficult position to defend, and you're very exposed having to make very quick decisions that leave you floundering if you get them wrong

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/analysis-sonny-bill-williams-unleashed-scotland

Australia will definitely be targeting this as they have a similarly potent attacking midfield

I shall now go and read that but just for argument's sake;

Some posters here have blamed Hornee Furra for one, or both. If you look at them the key element is McKenzie running a scything arc from Scotland's left wing between the centres and not being picked up. I don't think that is one player's fault so much as a systemic failure. Certainly for the third try Russell has tackled SBW, Horne is up on the 13 stopping him from being there for the off load. This leaves Jones, Jones & Hogg to watch the winger and full back. The TV angle from behind the try line shows Lee Jones tracking McKenzie (too late, sadly) and Huw Jones standing on his heels looking all around him like FES on a Saturday night wondering just when his date will arrive. For the second try Horne tackles SBW too late to stop the grubber and H Jones is pushing up on the 13 as McKenzie arcs in from the wing and is past him before HJ realises he's there.
What concerns me most about these defensive lapses is that England destroyed us with pre-planned moves attacking the same channels at Twickers and H Jones and Hogg are the only common denominators. You could argue that Seymour as blind side wing should have been sweeping across to pick up the full back I think it's either Huw Jones has a defensive frailty that we have not suspected OR he has not played enough with the Glasgow backs to fit into the systems yet. If it's the latter then he should be fine by the 6N's

You make some good points Jimbo.

In some respects, like rolling maul tries, these kind of plays can sometimes just be un-defendable (probably not the best word, but you know what I mean). The midfield defence has to cover so much space and when you have guys the size and speed of the AB midfield, executing skills right on the gainline, it is incredibly difficult to defend. I’ve played 13 a lot and even at my (very) amateur level it is sometimes incredibly difficult to defend a well-executed strike move.

Like rolling mauls it then comes down to cutting down on the number of opportunities teams have to launch these strike moves, so that means not giving away penalties around the half way line, and being clean and risk-averse when exiting your own half. No point fannying (sorry Radge) around just outside your 22 and knocking it on – set up a good exit and get rid of the ball (unless there’s an obvious overlap).

I’m not sure what the lead up to those tries were, but chances are there was a knock on or penalty conceded that gave them the field position to strike.

The point is good weather means Australia can play to their strengths which will put your defence under pressure.

In the 6 nations, Scotland only kept the points total below 20 in 2 games vs Wales and Italy.

If you look at the amount of times, Scotland has conceded 20+ points it's too many.

As long as the points difference total is healthy, you can get away with a worse defence but Scotland aren't scoring enough tries to offset this.

Scotland's higher try count has been great to see from a neutral perspective but unless you get that points conceded total down it will mean you'll lose.

In all honesty, i have always thought Huw Jones was a potential weak point in our defence

Hopfully playing more with the team will shore that upi

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Meh. Scotland's pack is down to the bare bones, and likely to be fairly knackered, so not sure bad weather benefits them at all TBH. This team is set up to attack with good ball handlers all over the pitch, so would much prefer a dry day. Current weather forecast is for good weather Friday to Sunday BTW.

That sounds like reasonable news on the injury front, though I think MacFarland may be putting a rather overly optimistic spin on things.

Scotland kicked generally very well against NZ (one slightly overcooked one from Price aside), and certainly Australia seemed to struggle with Care's little dinks behind the defence, so that might be an area for Scotland to target.

On the subject of kicking, I've noticed that Aus seem to no longer use the box kick option. I suspect this is because Genia gets charged down rather a lot. Instead, they set up the ruck, and drop Foley (sometimes Beale) quite deep in the pocket to make the clearance kick. While this all but removes the charge-down possibility, it does mean that you can make decent territory gains.

Does anyone have any stats on box kicks in general?

I find them to be one of the blights on the game as often they are employed by a 9 who seems frightened and wants to just get rid of the ball.

Very rarely do you see a box kick going up and being reclaimed by the kicking team. I find that this just surrenders possession and very little territory is gained. Surely to goodness it would be far better for the 9 to ship the ball to the standoff or another back to boot the ball down field?

We used to practice restarts and one of the scenarios was for the 9 to box kick it and I always thought it was the daftest thing to practice.

I don't know about that. I think a well used box kick in the right part of the pitch is a very good tactic, as long as it is not over used and becomes predictable, in the way that it was when Solly coached Edinburgh.

It's all about the quality of the kick, which need to be inch perfect. To near for the FB to come on to it and the right distance for the chaser to come onto it at speed so they can get up in the air.

We have got some decent aerial operators these days, Seymour in particular. He will be up and going for those balls more often than not.

At lower levels of rugby they just don't work as the kickers and catchers just don't have the skills!

yeah there's definitely still place in the game for a well executed box kick. Sometimes it just isn't possible to get a pass away to your 10 to clear as it will put them under too much pressure, and if you've got a good chase it can be a real attacking weapon.