Post Autumn Internationals - State of the Home Nations

So where does this leave each of the home nations then?

Scotland:
- won two, lost one;
- scored 16 tries in 3 games (including two matches against top 3 opposition);
- gave 7 players their first caps (Jamie Bhatti, Darryl Marfo, Chris Harris, George Turner, Luke Hamilton, Byron McGuigan and Phil Burleigh);
- conceded 11 tries;
- almost received a compliment from Steve Hanson;
- played positively and with some confidence.

So all in all, what we hoped for at the start of the series albeit that the defence was inexplicably absent for chunks of the game.

What did Steve say?

"The opposition side from wherever they are put in a good performance for their level. They should be proud of their efforts, those Scotlaidlawlandisers..or whatever they're called." That's usually his effort

BTW...it seems by the stats that Scotland have very much become a 'we'll score more tries than you' team - which is fun to watch but can be generous too on the other end.  The balance achieved by Scotland between scoring and letting-in will obviously be the test of where they get to over the next few seasons.

England:

Played - 3, won 3
For - 99 Against 28
Tries Scored - 13
Tries Conceded - 3
Players Used - 30
New Caps - 1
Upset David Campese

LondonTiger wrote:England:

Played - 3, won 3
For - 99 Against 28
Tries Scored - 13
Tries Conceded - 3
Players Used - 30
New Caps - 1
Upset David Campese

When you put it like that - pretty successful. I wonder how Campo reacted to Saturday.

Will update on Wales when we stop passing the ball......soon......very soon.

LondonTiger wrote:England:

Played - 3, won 3
For - 99 Against 28
Tries Scored - 13
Tries Conceded - 3
Players Used - 30
New Caps - 1
Upset David Campese

And yet the English rugby press don't seem to be happy?

Are they ever happy?

You'd have to say Scotland did everything they said they would pre Autumn and added a bit of flair to that as well. Samoa was a loose game in defence and that was fixed for the remaining games. I think Scotland have adopted a Barcelona type mentality, we will keep the ball and play with it. I wasn't overly convinced by the scrum but overall I think the pack is much better at getting over the gain line now with the added bulk of Berghan, Bhatti, Du Preez, Toolis and MacInally. Scotland looked similar to the All Blacks at times this Autumn and if they can now just smooth out those little ropey periods of play I think they can kick on and challenge for either the trip crown or title in 2018 6N.

6N Predicted results after Autumn...

Wales away - W
France home - W
England home - D
Ireland Away - L
Italy Away - W

I still think Ireland have more beef to trouble Scotland up front and slow their attack and a tough team to beat away. England I think we can compete with however at home, I see Horne becoming the new first choice 12/midfield playmaker, definitely suits Scotland's game well. Hogg coming into the mix too worked very well against NZ.

Ireland, France and Italy had mixed fortunes in the other half of the Six Nations

Ireland W3 L0 - 10 tries and conceded 5 - gave a few caps out too
Italy W1 L2 - Ian McKinley was a new cap, don't know any others.
France W1 L4 Baabaas and tests. Loads of new caps probably.

A so-so series against middle-tier opposition for Ireland
Italy one step forward and then two steps back.
France - backwards again.

I suppose the bonus is that now people aren't saying the usual at this time of the year and in a year such as this - that France now have the advantage given it's a post-Lions tour year! Thank God for small mercies on that one.

I guess Scotland have now taken up that mantle. So it's role-reversal. France are now the possible dark horses. Scotland (post-pointed Lions snub) are the fresh team and players ready to beat the crap out of all the post-Lions 'tiredness' sides that only want a kip instead of five games in February/March

Well we now have a couple of months to debate the who's and why's.

I'd still expect England to win well in Scotland right now, not least because I think we have the right kind of team to make things very tough for the Scots. But it won't happen without some major scares along the way. We should also (finally) have Billy back in harness come the 6N and that should up our game by a decent margin.

lostinwales wrote:Well we now have a couple of months to debate the who's and why's.

I'd still expect England to win well in Scotland right now, not least because I think we have the right kind of team to make things very tough for the Scots. But it won't happen without some major scares along the way. We should also (finally) have Billy back in harness come the 6N and that should up our game by a decent margin.

England are the team I am very weary of. It's not because they are terribly good in all honesty I don't think there's much between them and Ireland. In all honesty I don't think there is much between Ireland and Scotland.

But England just seem to have a knack for beating us. Murrayfield has become something of a fortress, where only NZ have won in the last two seasons. Can England overcome us? If they do they'll have to shut us out I'd think. The last match at Twickenham was a perfect case of exploiting a defensive system. I doubt we will get done in the same way and if the NZ game has taught us anything it is we can cope with injuries better than last year.

I genuinely think we can beat England, I certainly think we have the attacking prowess to open them up. Do we have the mental fortitude?

Scotland's pack is certainly a bit more gnarled and nuggety. It's doubtful we'll get bullied like we did last season. I do think our attack might be tough for any team to contain at the moment.

England only let in 3 over the three weeks.  In the same period I think New Zealand let in 6?

England aren't letting much past them.

If you subtract tries conceded from tries gained over the three weeks, England comes out well on top with 10 tries left.  ABs next with 7.  Scotland and Ireland on 5.

Defences probably do win games.  And it seems England are best at that game for now.  Scotland's worry should be the sacrificing of tight defence for all out attack.  11 tries conceded is a dangerously high number for such a skilful side. Balance will be required.

I'd also argue that the two best 'counter punch' teams in the world at the moment are England and NZ.

As far as England goes they are very good at scoring from turnovers and with May and Daly they have two wings who are as fast or faster than anyone else on a rugby pitch at the moment. I do think that Scotland attack will cause problems for everyone, us included. But If you play a high risk attacking game against England you had better get it right because mistakes will be punished.

I'm a little disappointed don't know more about England's third choice players. Presumably, Daly, Nowell and perhaps even Lozowski are full back options after Brown and Watson but we've barely seen Watson, let alone the others.

At scrum half, I think Maunder got precisely two minutes of game time in Argentina, and it's not even clear he's next in line. I could live with Jones ignoring Robson, if we had some idea of who he does think would cover. When you consider that every match day squad needs two scrum halves, we are only one injury away from needing to call on someone else.

The same is true at hooker, although we have been hit by injuries to the most likely options. On a related not, our scrum doesn't really worry anyone right now. That might be a fair trade-off if we were monsters in the loose but our breakdown work was poor against Samoa. Lots to work on.

England have developed strength in depth this AI

I think the key thing about England is the games were played with a few keys players rested or injured.. thus more players have been blooded and showed in general they can play at this level.

Simmonds at 8 for example...with Bily and Hughes out.
Slade has creativity and looked quite comfortable in replacing Joseph at 13
Lozowski is growing as an international
Watson settled with ease at 15 then Brown returned to play one of his best games for England in ages
Etc etc

Gives Jones options for the 6n and allows him to pick a team based on the opposition we're playing..

I still think more players will cone through as well

Mercer at bath looks a real star in the back row and Ive never hidden how much I rate the Currys.  

The biggest issue is some genuine power in the midfield

Don't forget Wales still has a game to impress us all with the free flowing passing that we all love to watch.

They would be world class if they could learn to draw the man too.

England - A very stodgy performance and a step down in performance for me personally, but we are trying new players and mixing it up which I guess is what Eddie wanted to use the AI for this term, yet the stats and result tell a different story. Cant be too hard on them but they will have to turn it up a notch or two for the 6Nations.

Scotland - Wow. Great performance all round and real progress being made under Townsend. Do they have the depth in the squad to challenge for the 6 Nations? Probably not, but if they stay fit then they can beat anyone on the day.

Scotland 'we can do it this year' confidence bubbling along nicely for the 6 Nations.

England seem a step down from 2016 but even with a lot of injuries still a very difficult team to beat. One loss in 2 years, away to Ireland in a close game.

Pretty happy with Ireland's autumn in terms of the results. The team performances weren't great but a lot of positives with fringe players getting experience.

We'll need a lot of improvements to challenge for the 6N although the fixtures are pretty kind if we can geta
win in Paris.

I do fancy Scotland as dark horses though, they have a very good squad, an excellent coach and should be fresh with so few on the Lions tour. They've been threatening for a while and this could be their year.

England will be favorite but I'm tipping the Scots.

I cant see a grand slam this year, think it will come down to points difference, between England, Scotland and Ireland.
Each of the three teams plays one of the other 2 at home and the other away, I think they will win the home game but lose the away game.

The only issue is Scotland have Wales away first up, and GT will have less time with his players that EJ and Schmidt to prepare.

Its between Ireland, Scotland and England this year with Wales an outside bet. Italy and France have no hope.

Ireland have France away first. If they can get a win v France and they should then they have 3 home games v Italy, Wales and Scotland in a row. Our home record is very good so there is a reasonably good chance Ireland will be heading to Twickers on Paddy's day looking for a slam.

Of the Italy, Wales and Scotland games, the only cert... and I say even that advisedly... is Italy.  Home records are home records but sleeping for periods in a game is still something Ireland do, even at home.  Sleep or go off the boil, or try to play a less intense period, or try to get a breather by slowing the game down.... and either of Wales or Scotland will sense it, sense that we want a breather, and they both have the speed and firepower to get enough on the scoreboard that might deny us a fightback.

So that word again....complacency.  Nope, not consistency, complacency.  Complacency allowed Argentina to score three tries in the second half and have most of the ball.  If that's containment against Argentina, then it's suicide against Wales or Scotland.

The sure fire fact is that Joe Schmidt knows that England are the greatest challenge on paper.  He'll be focusing on getting all his prime players safe and fit through to that game.  But he also needs to win every game.  Ireland have a tendency to save themselves for the big clashes and both Wales and Scotland will try to catch us with our minds on that other game.

Well I think we will be favorites for all three games. Wales will probably still be the hardest as they are the only side in the 6n to win in Dublin under Schmidt and we have only lost 3 other games. NZ twice and Australia once in Schmidt's first game. We nearly always win at home.

Did Wales not draw with Ireland in Dublin in 2016? 2015 and 2017 Wales won in Cardiff. Unless it was a world cup warm-up?

Unbeaten at home in Six Nations since 2013 is good going. I think England are 2012, but i cant see it going for much longer.

Looking at the fixtures the middle and forth weekends should define the winners. Should be two great afternoons of rugby.

Oh yeah they just won in Cardiff it was a draw in Dublin. Draws are no use anyway almost as good as a loss.

I’d say Scotland have confirmed their perennial status as the 6N dark horse, England the slightly disappointing but just favourites, Wales can beat anyone on their day (except Oz obviously), whichever France will turn up (but we know it’ll be mostly the crapola one), Ireland the bit boring but hard-to-beat professional unit, and the rest.

IMO the latest world rankings are spot on and how the 6N will end:
2 - England (90.87)
3 - Ireland (86.39)
6 - Scotland (84.11)
7 - Wales (80.98)
9 - France (78.09)
14 - Italy (71.25)

I expect Scotland to edge the Calcutta Cup this year. Simply because I have just managed to source tickets the moment it all starts clicking for the Scots. I am hoping for a belter of a game for my first trip to Murrayfield.

propdavid_london wrote:I expect Scotland to edge the Calcutta Cup this year.  Simply because I have just managed to source tickets the moment it all starts clicking for the Scots.  I am hoping for a belter of a game for my first trip to Murrayfield.

Tickets already on sale?

Well, I have been promised them.

propdavid_london wrote:Well, I have been promised them.

Billy Twofingers with the scar all the way down his left cheek and neck? Yeah, I know him. He's trustworthy. I paid upfront for a share in the stud fees of Sea of Stars when he dies. Brilliant opportunity.

That's the fella...

Scotland to get the bonus point in Rome and win the thing.

Pot Hale wrote:Scotland to get the bonus point in Rome and win the thing.  

If you'd said that even last year you'd be carted off, but, I tend to agree they are definitely up there. Whether they can maintain composure under pressure when the metal meets the meat remains to be seen but they've been there as recently as RWC 2015. My jock is twitching at the prospect.

Scotland England will be interesting this season.
EJ's tactic will be to target Russell. If he has to drop deeper the English defence will get on top and then score tries. If Russell stays flat to the gainline it could be game on and the toughest 6N game.
Nice to see England finish the 6N at home for a change - their record being pretty good, last game at Twickenham.

Manu now available for Tigers this weekend. If he ever stays fit then he would add nicely to EJ's squad?

Barney McGrew did it wrote:I’d say Scotland have confirmed their perennial status as the 6N dark horse, England the slightly disappointing but just favourites, Wales can beat anyone on their day (except Oz obviously), whichever France will turn up (but we know it’ll be mostly the crapola one), Ireland the bit boring but hard-to-beat professional unit, and the rest.

IMO the latest world rankings are spot on and how the 6N will end:
2 - England (90.87)
3 - Ireland (86.39)
6 - Scotland (84.11)
7 - Wales (80.98)
9 - France (78.09)
14 - Italy (71.25)

I think you are right in so far as the rankings are an accurate reflection of where the respective teams are in relation to each other.

Not a great Autumn but if only we could get our first team fit aside from one winger and sub loosehead it would be a hard team to beat with great impact off the bench.

Evans, Owens, Lee, AWJ, Charteris, Moriarty, Warburton, Faletau, Webb, Biggar, North, O Williams, JD2, ?, Williams. Bench ?, Dacey/Dee, Francis, Ball/Hill, Navidi, Tipuric, Davies, Priestland, Parkes.

Gwlad wrote:Not a great Autumn but if only we could get our first team fit aside from one winger and sub loosehead it would be a hard team to beat with great impact off the bench.

Evans, Owens, Lee, AWJ, Charteris, Moriarty, Warburton, Faletau, Webb, Biggar, North, O Williams, JD2, ?, Williams. Bench ?, Dacey/Dee, Francis, Ball/Hill, Navidi, Tipuric, Davies, Priestland, Parkes.

I agree. When have Wales ever had a good autumn anyway. They probably will be back in the mix if they can keep key players fit.

Wales tournament hinges on the first game with Scotland as their second and third fixtures are away to England and Ireland.

Lose it and the could be 0-3

Away to France for Ireland, win that and they have 3 home games to follow and could set up a title decider away to England

I know starting fixtures are always important but the way the fixture lists fall this year I reckon these two games plus the Calcutta Cup are the three key
fixtures before the final weekend.

According to EOS France away in the first game is definitely the worst time to play them. He is probably right as the last few years they have put in some of their better performances in their first game.

no pun intended I assume? Cant quite see French rugby succeeding at test level unless they have a few more of their own "horses" in the starting XV consistently. A French crowd are fussy about cheering on their own and they like to play with their own on the field. As so much focus has shifted to players who are barely eligible (what the hell was a Fijian doing playing for France)? Laporte needs to shape this team into the right mould come 2019 for the sake of world rugby!

SecretFly wrote:I suppose the bonus is that now people aren't saying the usual at this time of the year and in a year such as this - that France now have the advantage given it's a post-Lions tour year!  Thank God for small mercies on that one.

I guess Scotland have now taken up that mantle.  So it's role-reversal.  France are now the possible dark horses.  Scotland (post-pointed Lions snub) are the fresh team and players ready to beat the crap out of all the post-Lions 'tiredness' sides that only want a kip instead of five games in February/March

There used to be a time when France nearly always won the post Lions tour 6 nations. They don't have a snowballs chance this time around IMO.

Gwlad wrote:Not a great Autumn but if only we could get our first team fit aside from one winger and sub loosehead it would be a hard team to beat with great impact off the bench.

Evans, Owens, Lee, AWJ, Charteris, Moriarty, Warburton, Faletau, Webb, Biggar, North, O Williams, JD2, ?, Williams. Bench ?, Dacey/Dee, Francis, Ball/Hill, Navidi, Tipuric, Davies, Priestland, Parkes.

Cant see much to fear there TBH . Wales for 5th , sorry.

I doubt Wales will finish fifth. 3rd or 4th at worst IMO.

Yeah can't see france doing anything.

I think if the post-Lions syndrome benefits anyone this year it's more likely to be Scotland than France. Scotland after all only sent three players on tour, one of whom (Hogg) left very early with a nasty injury and another (Laidlaw) who (probably) isn't first choice for them any more. So they should be in good shape.

I think Wales-Scotland first up is a crucial one. If Scotland win that, they have a home game vs France the following week, and then a week break before England. As pointed out, Wales then travel to England and Ireland, so could be 0-3. Huge game for them IMO.

Overall I agree that the rankings are a fair reflection of where the teams are at, and wouldn't be surprised to see the 6N finish in that order. I actually think Italy might cause a few problems this year, with O'Shea having had more time with them. They had one decent win vs Fiji in the autumn.

6N should be scrapped and yall should go back to ye olde quadri nations or home unions tourno or whatever it was called. France and Italy are of no use unless the tournament gets decided on the number of points scored.

alive555 wrote:

Gwlad wrote:Not a great Autumn but if only we could get our first team fit aside from one winger and sub loosehead it would be a hard team to beat with great impact off the bench.

Evans, Owens, Lee, AWJ, Charteris, Moriarty, Warburton, Faletau, Webb, Biggar, North, O Williams, JD2, ?, Williams. Bench ?, Dacey/Dee, Francis, Ball/Hill, Navidi, Tipuric, Davies, Priestland, Parkes.

Cant see much to fear there TBH . Wales for 5th , sorry.

I doubt your fear the Patpong either though