Indian Wells and Miami 2018

First topic message reminder :

Can Fed complete a double sunshine double? It's asking a lot, but there are a host of big names missing this year, including Rafa.
Delpo could have a good chance, having taken the Acapulco title. Could one of the young guns make a mark? The likes of Shapovalov, Tiafoe, Tsitsipas and Fritz are coming through. There will be some interesting early matches at IW, as a lot of the big names who have managed to turn up are now comparatively lowly ranked (Nishi, Tsonga, Gasquet, Raonic).
   Fed needs to make the semis to keep his number one slot. You'd reckon he'd manage that, particularly if Delpo is not in his half of the draw.
   As for the women, I'm not sure if world number one Halep is going to be fit. Kerber could be a good bet.

Good news indeed No Name Bertie. Now wishing to dikute Broady's acheivement but think the draw helped him a bit but still great for him to reach his first Masters tournament.

To add to British success, Katie Boulter made it thru to the main draw as well.
None of the British players who have qualified are meeting seeds in the first round so there is hope that some of them may progress.
   I know some people are suggesting Fed may play some of the clay-court season. Very much doubt it.

Well of the Brit qualifiers it was one of them that progressed into the 2nd Round and that was Liam Broady. Handy points for him and he is on the brink of breaking into the top 150 now.

Cameron Norrie bumped into someone similar to himself (aged 22) but further along the improvement trajectory - a challenger level player who has recently improved greatly getting to an ATP 250 final and an ATP 500 semi-final last month (for the first time in his career) - Nicolas Jarry (ranking #65)

Fed will play Kokkinakis in round two. Be interesting to see how Djoko gets on today. Denis Shapovalov almost mucked up his match, being taken to a final set tiebreak after being 5-1 up. But he came through. 
 Another intriguing result. Spain's Nicola Kuhn (Austrian born) is thru. He's only just turned 18.

Surprised to see Goffin and Bautista-Agut lose their matches.

Djokovic lost to Paire.

Gasquet lost to Chardy.

I thought Goffin might kick on this year, but it hasn't happened.

With Djokovic it is just a question of whether or not he is over this long term elbow injury / issue: is he playing with or without pain?

In his loss in Indian Wells he just said that his timing was well off.  I wonder what he will say here.  Paire is a decent player so a difficult opponent to play in his first match in Miami.  Djokovic also played in the doubles with Troickl and lost in a third set.  So as long as Djokovic is over his elbow issue and is playing without pain - then it is just a question of getting more and more competitive matches under his belt.

Apparently, first time Djoko has lost three matches in a row since 2007. In his post-match interview he said he was trying but was not anywhere near the level he wanted or used to be. There was no mention of his being in pain as such and he said he would keep on working on his game.
   Delpo was taken to three sets and now goes up against Nishi. Caroline W is out, as is IW victor Osaka.

sirfredperry wrote:Caroline W is out, as is IW victor Osaka.

CW had won the first set at 6-0.

A Zverev survives a strong challenge from Medvedev, coming thru in a final set tiebreak. Can Kokkinakis cause an upset against Fed later? Edmund loses first set to Tiafoe but is 4-2 up in the second.

sirfredperry wrote:A Zverev survives a strong challenge from Medvedev, coming thru in a final set tiebreak. Can Kokkinakis cause an upset against Fed later? Edmund loses first set to Tiafoe but is 4-2 up in the second.

Kyle Edmund lost in three sets and is still waiting for his first win since the Australian Open. Federer about to start against Kokkinakis.

A bit of a setback for Edmund.

Had the match on his racquet in the decider but then caught up in a TB which cost him. Did play extremely well throughout most of the match - except of course at key moments, when Tiafoe found the crucial inspiration. Edmund also looked somewhat drained towards closing stages. All good experience, I guess.

Thanasi Kokkinakis stuns Roger Federer in Miami, coming from a set down to beat the Swiss in a final set tie break. It's the biggest win of the Australian's career. Whilst Federer's early exit means Rafael Nadal returns as world #1

Federer's recovery is much slower, and a focus on defending W becomes important for him.

Kokkinakis. good story for his grand kids, too.

Thanasi Kokkinakis is potentially a future grand slam winner?  The latest younger generation are showing signs of life.  According to the BBC he ground Federer down with vicious top spin forehands.  Injury and according to some attitude has held Kokkinakis back, but he is still only 21.

Federer announces it is time for a break.  He will skip clay and Roland Garros.  Federer will be turning 37 soon and one wonders how long he will stay around on the ATP tour.  It looks like we will never see him play on the clay on the ATP tour again.

Pure lazy reporting Bertie I would say on behalf of the BBC.

Whenever Roger loses the player that beats him (if young) becomes a future slam winner even when there is no evidence to back that up. There is much more to becoming a slam winner than beating Roger and Kokkanakis has shown nothing so far to suggest he has a slam win in him. Sorry but that is my opinion.

Fed said he never got going and just couldn't find a way to win the match. He'll now skip the clay-court season.
   I had a feeling that after the delpo disappointment Fed would have a tough match against Kokki. It was asking a lot for him to emulate last year's start but, really, 17-2 aint a bad beginning to 2018. 
   Amid all this, it should be noted that Denis Shapo had another good win, while Halep crashed out to Radwanska.

What a fantastic match it was last night. Whilst Fed wasn’t at his absolute best, Kokkinakis played a phenomenal match. His forehand was devastating and he kept delivering when under huge pressure. Tennis needed a result like this, after probably the dullest start to a season that I can recall.

After two years of injuries which have derailed his career, hopefully Kokkinakis can kick on from here. Contrary to Craig’s view, I think he has all the tools to be a future slam champion. If he can stay fit, expect him to rocket up the rankings.

Very good win by Konta today in Miami, beating Mertens 2 and 1. The delpo v Nishi match should be good - could be a longy.

Born Slippy wrote:After two years of injuries which have derailed his career, hopefully Kokkinakis can kick on from here. Contrary to Craig’s view, I think he has all the tools to be a future slam champion. If he can stay fit, expect him to rocket up the rankings.

My view is similar to CC's. Tomic, Nishikori, Kyrgios, Kokkinakis, Raonic, Dimitrov, Zverev, Fritz, Tiafoe, Harrison and many a youngster show a spark, but never seem to follow through. Perhaps it is a lack of discipline or work ethic or something else. Take Zverev as an example, he beat Federer, but he is not progressing much.

IMHO, Hyeon Chung has a better chance being a slam winner than Kokkinakis.

Very very harsh to group Kokkinakis with most of that bunch Laver. How can you possibly decide someone who has been unfortunate enough to be injured for 2 years has a lack of discipline or work ethic? There are obvious issues with each of the players you mention which clearly don’t apply to Kokkinakis. He is the same age as Chung but is 2 years behind in terms of development as a result and, arguably, he is already a more dangerous opponent for the top guys. I think Chung has slam potential but, if Kokkinakis can stay fit, he’s at a similar level.

I am not being harsh, but perhaps being factual. With/without injury is also part of the game and part of being a professional athlete.

Injury cut short Magnus Norman's career but Muster did well. Nadal is the more recent example, despite being injured most of his career, is considered a very unique player in the history of Tennis. Soderling was laid low, as is Raonic now, injuries or illness. Look at Djokovic, a player who held all four Slams at once.

Shapovalov is the more recent darling, as is Kokkinakis (partly because he beat #1). Simon beat world #1 in his heyday in 2008, as did Karlovic, or Zeballos beat Nadal.

I have no desire to pronounce a new Tennis Messiah based on one victory.

Nobody is talking about a new tennis messiah.  Kokkinakis, now 21, has always been highly rated and considered a potential challenger for grand slams in the future.  It may be that Murray, Djokovic and Wawrinka are already no longer contenders for grand slam titles.  If any of them do get back to competitiveness then they probably have no more than four years left.  Federer is unlikely to last more than two years and won't be playing clay again.  Once the younger generation start beating Federer, it will be over for Federer, because the younger generation will be getting better as they move towards their peak, while Federer moves towards his zimmer frame. Kokkinakis beat him in Miami, Coric pushed him to three sets in Indian Wells. Nadal probably has four more years left but he will be in and out of competitiveness as he battles various injuries (which he always now gets but is always able to overcome them after a period of downtime).

Another dreadful result for Dimi. Is his mind on his tennis? Seem to recall this happening last season as well - some stunning victories then some inexplicable defeats. Delpo looking good again.
   Venus had a three-hour match and has to play again today....against Konta.

No name Bertie wrote:Nobody is talking about a new tennis messiah.  Kokkinakis, now 21, has always been highly rated and considered a potential challenger for grand slams in the future.  

I think consistency is much more important at an early stage in career, rather than one-off wins. Let us re-evaulate at the beginning of 2019 and see what his progress is.

Kokkanakis has lost much more matches than he has won in his career so far and is yet to win a title but hey-ho he beats Roger and he is suddenly a future slam winner - eh not by my estimations. To me this was a classic case of the BBC trying to keep Roger's star shining bright (the one tennis player in the world that doesn't need it) by trying to elevate the player who has just beaten him. Lets at least wait until he has won a tournament before lauding him so much. I said the same about Edmund earlier in the year and I say the same about Kokkanakis.

Kokkinakis loses to Verdasco in a third-set TB. Testy match.

Well the sceptics have been proved right with Kokkinakis losing to Verdasco. The Spaniard is still a tricky opponent on his day but this is the sort of result that shows that there's more to progressing up the ATP rankings than a big win against an illustrious opponent like Federer. The young Aussie though has had a rough time of it with injury over last couple of years, but fingers crossed I think he ought to push into top 25 or so if he can keep injury-free for a bit.

Elsewhere a good win for Shapovalov against Querrey. The young Canadian since his breakthrough last summer has been getting some good solid results. Kyrgios had a good straight sets win against Fognini and is my tip for the title here. Coric is up against Sock - the latter has been mostly underwhelming since his great end of 2017 and you would have to tip the Croat to win through here whilst up and coming and in-form Tiafoe has a chance against Berdych.

MrInvisible wrote:Well the sceptics have been proved right with Kokkinakis losing to Verdasco.

Is it not too early to be 2019? . His FH and BH need much more control. Wait till we get to Paris 2018.

After this week Johanna Konta will drop outside the top twenty to about #24.

In five years time Kokkinakis will be 26 years old and Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro, Cilic will be gone or effectively gone as grand slam title challengers.

No name Bertie wrote:In five years time Kokkinakis will be 26 years old and Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro, Cilic will be gone or effectively gone as grand slam title challengers.

It would be interesting to see the picture five years from now.

No name Bertie wrote:In five years time Kokkinakis will be 26 years old and Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Del Potro, Cilic will be gone or effectively gone as grand slam title challengers.

Very true but just lust like it is very true that players who have lost more matches they have won on their first 50 matches on tour are not the material of future slam winner.

Very good win by Denis Shopaholic (can't spell his real name). He's not yet 19 but chalking up an impressive teenage CV. 
   Saw a few clips of the A Zverev match. Ferrer still giving top players a good game. 
   Konta may have been over-ranked until now but becomes possibly under-ranked by her expected big fall following her loss to Venus. Kerber had a big struggle yesterday but came thru, while Ostapenko (is she a flash in the pan or the real deal?) had a good win over Kvitova.

Del Potro's first year as Pro has a W/L of 10-12. Kokkinakis is 2-7 in 2013. Let us see how he progresses. The burden of expectations can be too high to carry. Case-in-point is Murray.

laverfan wrote:Del Potro's first year as Pro has a W/L of 10-12. Kokkinakis is 2-7 in 2013. Let us see how he progresses. The burden of expectations can be too high to carry. Case-in-point is Murray.

But what was Del Potro's record after 50 tour matches? A good deal better than Kokkinakis I 'd wager.

Del Porto in 2007 was 28-25, 2008 was 46-16. 2009 was 54-16.

laverfan wrote:Del Porto in 2007 was 28-25, 2008 was 46-16. 2009 was 54-16.

Whereas Kokkinakis record stands at 22-36. A big difference compared to Del Potro's 46-16.

46-16 was after DP’s third year on tour. If I’m reading Laverfan’s information correctly he was 38-37 before that. After 50 matches Fed was 25-25. So far as I can recall, neither suffered a career threatening injury during that run of matches. Unsurprisingly, in the circumstances, Kokkinakis hasn’t developed as quickly.

My assessment of Kokkinakis is based on his game, not the stats. He is still raw but he has a big serve and huge forehand and a solid backhand. It’s clear he has top 10 potential if he stays fit. What he showed against Fed is that he is also a tough competitor. Is he a guaranteed slam winner? Of course not. However, he has to be in a discussion of players aged 21 and under who has the tools to win a slam.

A while back there was a thread on here about who would rule the men's game in 2023. Okay not many people contributed to it but Kokkinakis name did not crop up once. That says a lot. People then never saw fit to suggest he was a future slam winner and I won't be swayed just because of a random win against Roger.

Yes we shall see what the coming years bring but Kokkinakis does not strike me as a future slam winner.

I omitted him because he had been injured for two years and had just described his body as a shambles at the Australian Open! However, this is what I said about him back in 2016, when the extent of his shoulder issues weren’t known:

Kokkinakis (WR96 age 19.8) - Another big guy with a modern all-court game. Has all the shots to make it to the top, if not quite the explosiveness of his compatriot, Kyrgios. Career so far being held back by injury and currently yet to play this season due to a left shoulder injury. Hopefully, he can have an injury-free spell and start climbing back up the rankings. 23.10 Unranked - not played an ATP match all year through injury. Cruel luck.

@BS... It is always good to see young blood being infused into Tennis. The Verdasco vs Kokkinakis match showed the 'angry' side of the K. It would be good to see focus, which is a rare commodity for a young player to have. Injuries do not help either, and can flare up, which can cause more anguish for a young player.

Thiem and Vesely were good rising players, but seem to have stalled. For the sake of Tennis, it would be good to see competition thrive.

Personally, I am impressed with Hyeon Chung.

Both Chung and Coric appeared on the scene about three to four years ago in their teens, progressed rapidly into about the top fifty and then stalled for about two years, only this year have they both showed signs of progressing again.  

Not sure what the issue was, maybe it is the strength needed for the ATP tour, maybe it was a bit of fame and money getting to them, maybe it was low level injuries, maybe it was opponents (& their coaches) working out their game ...

I remember when Murray first appeared on the scene and the LTA paid for a big name coach Brad Gilbert. I remember Murray saying that Gilbert told him he would only be a success once he had developed his arms into the size of his legs ...

No name Bertie wrote:I remember when Murray first appeared on the scene and the LTA paid for a big name coach Brad Gilbert. I remember Murray saying that Gilbert told him he would only be a success once he had developed his arms into the size of his legs ...

..and it killed the 'natural' Murray shot making, trying to manufacture a Nadal clone.

@Laverfan, agree that Vesely hasn't really done much but Thiem has progressed nicely up the rankings. His progress on other surfaces may have stalled but on the clay he's arguably the best of the rest and most realistic winner of Roland Garros after Nadal now that Wawrinka and Djokovic's careers appear to be blighted by injury now.

Back onto the tennis at Miami surprised no-one's commented about Tiafoe's win over Berdych, which is another of those 'changing the guard' type wins for younger players over the older established players. Not seen the young American player just yet but I'll try and stream his next match at Miami to have a look - his results are certainly impressive this year.

Coric is a set up against Shapovalov and Kyrgios will be in action against Zverev later. My prediction is a Del Potro v Kyrgios final.

Just watched the last set of the Coric v Shapovalov match - pretty entertaining with a few twists and turns. Shapovalov's shot-making is breathtaking to watch but ultimately the Croat proved the steadier player when it mattered and won 6-4 in final set.

Shapovalov still looks a bit raw at times - he did produce some fantastic clutch tennis saving break points and played some real top notch stuff to break back but also threw in a few careless errors which cost him. Great to watch and a fantastic talent but there are couple of areas to work on to take him up to the next level. Coric looks like he's destined for top 10 sooner rather than later - v solid player with a good temperament, and I'll be interested to see how he does on the clay this season.

Kyrgios seems a bit under the weather. Zverev up 5-2 and had a set point on Kyrgios's server. Zverev wobbles, but wins the first set 6-4.

Well, Zverev came thru in straight sets thus spoiling Mr I's projected final. Tiafoe, after his win against Berdych, went out to Anderson.
   Cilic is out while in the women Kerber was smashed by Stephens and Azha bt Pliskova.

Isner managed to down Chung in straight sets win while Delpo and Raonic had a near-three hour battle before the Argentinian triumphed 5-7, 7-6, 7-6.
   Delpo is on a tremendous run and moving towards a really good ranking.
   Looks like some long matches finally caught up with Venus who was beaten in straight sets. Ostapenko had another good win, against Pliskova.