Political round up.............

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In Cheshire East..

The Tory leader who has a seat in a ward called Audlam...

Has seen a 1600 majority disappear to 78..

Turnout not as low as feared, nationally, though it is lower by 1 or 2% compared to last year. Turnout was a massive 22% in my local ward.

Over in Posh Disley...

Tory got 71% of the vote last time...

Just been kicked out this time with 25%..

Little Englanders want to wave their Union Jacks out in Bush land...

BBC projected that if this were a General Election both Labour and Tories would have an equal 28% of the vote. While its still only local elections it seems the death of the two party system is coming along right enough.

Different when its a GE....Tactical voting comes in..

Greens won't get 10%..

When they did that projection 28 - 28

Con had 885 losses
Lab had 86 losses

Now...

Con 1327 losses
Lab 77 losses

Incredible that both May and Corbyn are spinning this as the country telling them to “get on with Brexit”.

They are both eachothers greatest asset..

Both are crap so the result today would be like last year's be a hung parliament...

No GE soon......Probably not before 2022.....

The Tories struggled in marginals today.......Labour struggled in its safe seats like Sunderland....

Euro Elections may make a fool of these Elections.....Have a feeling Lib Dems and Greens got protest votes that might have gone to the Brexit Party....

A lot of people won't vote for racists like Ukip..

But what do we know ??.....You may be right..

1st time ever Tories lose in my constituency of Cheshire East.

That the parties that want a 2nd referendum/to stay in the EU all increased votes whilst all others lost votes how on earth does May think the public want them to get on with Brexit?

I'm tired of national pictures trying to be inserted into local ones. This has nothing to do with the EU or the next GE, so I wish politicians would stop talking in those terms.

I voted Green last year in the locals, and the Yorkshire Party this year - would I vote for either of them at a GE? Very unlikely. But I felt those choices were the best for the local area. About 600 independents gained seats and ousted party political candidates at this LE - what chance of that happening at a GE? Practically zero. Small parties like the DVP also made gains. No chance of that happening at a GE.

And the turnout was tiny compared to GEs.

Lib Dems had a great night, but it must be said that they were the opposition to the free-falling Tories in lots of seats, especially in the SW. Added to that, the Lib Dems are excellent local campaigners - knocking on doors, canvassing etc. it really helps at LEs where turnout is smaller. Now, compare that to UKIP, who as a party are utterly dismal at campaigning. No surprise they always lose seats when they don't do the basics right.

Duty281 wrote:I'm tired of national pictures trying to be inserted into local ones. This has nothing to do with the EU or the next GE, so I wish politicians would stop talking in those terms.

I voted Green last year in the locals, and the Yorkshire Party this year - would I vote for either of them at a GE? Very unlikely. But I felt those choices were the best for the local area. About 600 independents gained seats and ousted party political candidates at this LE - what chance of that happening at a GE? Practically zero. Small parties like the DVP also made gains. No chance of that happening at a GE.

And the turnout was tiny compared to GEs.

Lib Dems had a great night, but it must be said that they were the opposition to the free-falling Tories in lots of seats, especially in the SW. Added to that, the Lib Dems are excellent local campaigners - knocking on doors, canvassing etc. it really helps at LEs where turnout is smaller. Now, compare that to UKIP, who as a party are utterly dismal at campaigning. No surprise they always lose seats when they don't do the basics right.

You appear to think that events have something or nothing to do with Brexit whenever it suits you.

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:I'm tired of national pictures trying to be inserted into local ones. This has nothing to do with the EU or the next GE, so I wish politicians would stop talking in those terms.

I voted Green last year in the locals, and the Yorkshire Party this year - would I vote for either of them at a GE? Very unlikely. But I felt those choices were the best for the local area. About 600 independents gained seats and ousted party political candidates at this LE - what chance of that happening at a GE? Practically zero. Small parties like the DVP also made gains. No chance of that happening at a GE.

And the turnout was tiny compared to GEs.

Lib Dems had a great night, but it must be said that they were the opposition to the free-falling Tories in lots of seats, especially in the SW. Added to that, the Lib Dems are excellent local campaigners - knocking on doors, canvassing etc. it really helps at LEs where turnout is smaller. Now, compare that to UKIP, who as a party are utterly dismal at campaigning. No surprise they always lose seats when they don't do the basics right.

You appear to think that events have something or nothing to do with Brexit whenever it suits you.

Not in the slightest. GEs and European Elections = quite a lot to do with Brexit. Local Elections = not an awful lot to do with Brexit.

General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Pr4wn wrote:General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Not at local elections, no.

It's silly to try and read a very basic and overly simplified national picture - such as: "oh the Lib Dems did well, it must be because they're a Remain Party" - into a set of local elections without taking into account a multitude of other factors, such as local issues and campaigning efforts, which are both of tremendous importance, and largely ignored by national media.

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Not at local elections, no.

It's silly to try and read a very basic and overly simplified national picture - such as: "oh the Lib Dems did well, it must be because they're a Remain Party" - into a set of local elections without taking into account a multitude of other factors, such as local issues and campaigning efforts, which are both of tremendous importance, and largely ignored by national media.

Hear what you're saying, but I think you're wrong. Most people have no idea what their local Councils are for, what they promise or whether they've delivered. Not one iota. They might have a feel for national issues, particularly now with Brexit. Votes for LDs, Greens etc this week might have been a protest vote, but it had a lot to do with the Brexit situation, one way or the other.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Not at local elections, no.

It's silly to try and read a very basic and overly simplified national picture - such as: "oh the Lib Dems did well, it must be because they're a Remain Party" - into a set of local elections without taking into account a multitude of other factors, such as local issues and campaigning efforts, which are both of tremendous importance, and largely ignored by national media.

Hear what you're saying, but I think you're wrong. Most people have no idea what their local Councils are for, what they promise or whether they've delivered. Not one iota. They might have a feel for national issues, particularly now with Brexit. Votes for LDs, Greens etc this week might have been a protest vote, but it had a lot to do with the Brexit situation, one way or the other.

He isn't wrong and neither are you..

A lot of People know their Local Councillors and if they like them will maybe forget Political allegiances..Same if they don't !!!

.If people think their Council services are inadequate they may look to third parties as a protest...

Apparently one of the causes of LABOUR being trashed in Sunderland was because of an underage sex scandal..

Local Elections are more personal...But you are right that many People will have registered protest over Brexit too for sure.

Best to remember also General Elections are pretty much binary choice.. You get Con or Lab Govt..

So tactical voting is higher.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Not at local elections, no.

It's silly to try and read a very basic and overly simplified national picture - such as: "oh the Lib Dems did well, it must be because they're a Remain Party" - into a set of local elections without taking into account a multitude of other factors, such as local issues and campaigning efforts, which are both of tremendous importance, and largely ignored by national media.

Hear what you're saying, but I think you're wrong. Most people have no idea what their local Councils are for, what they promise or whether they've delivered. Not one iota. They might have a feel for national issues, particularly now with Brexit. Votes for LDs, Greens etc this week might have been a protest vote, but it had a lot to do with the Brexit situation, one way or the other.

The first part may be true, but local campaigning (knocking on doors, canvassing etc.) makes a massive difference in local council wards. That's why so many independents gain seats at local elections, ousting party political rivals. That's one reason why the Greens (good local campaigners) have vastly outperformed UKIP in these elections, despite having similar Westminster polling numbers.

Anything is up for grabs at a local election, five years of being a political campaigner tells me this. Nothing is unwinnable. I know an independent in the Labour stronghold of Dewsbury who defeated a Labour rival on Thursday after campaigning solidly for two years; two Democrats and Veterans party candidates in Barnsley did likewise after a similar effort. This sort of result is repeated hundreds of times across the country for tiny parties and independents and skews and blurs the national picture. The same cannot be said in a GE, where as Truss rightly points out, it's a more binary choice and people are far more entrenched in their choices.

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Not at local elections, no.

It's silly to try and read a very basic and overly simplified national picture - such as: "oh the Lib Dems did well, it must be because they're a Remain Party" - into a set of local elections without taking into account a multitude of other factors, such as local issues and campaigning efforts, which are both of tremendous importance, and largely ignored by national media.

Hear what you're saying, but I think you're wrong. Most people have no idea what their local Councils are for, what they promise or whether they've delivered. Not one iota. They might have a feel for national issues, particularly now with Brexit. Votes for LDs, Greens etc this week might have been a protest vote, but it had a lot to do with the Brexit situation, one way or the other.

The first part may be true, but local campaigning (knocking on doors, canvassing etc.) makes a massive difference in local council wards. That's why so many independents gain seats at local elections, ousting party political rivals. That's one reason why the Greens (good local campaigners) have vastly outperformed UKIP in these elections, despite having similar Westminster polling numbers.

Anything is up for grabs at a local election, five years of being a political campaigner tells me this. Nothing is unwinnable. I know an independent in the Labour stronghold of Dewsbury who defeated a Labour rival on Thursday after campaigning solidly for two years; two Democrats and Veterans party candidates in Barnsley did likewise after a similar effort. This sort of result is repeated hundreds of times across the country for tiny parties and independents and skews and blurs the national picture. The same cannot be said in a GE, where as Truss rightly points out, it's a more binary choice and people are far more entrenched in their choices

So why did the Tories do so well in the last local elections?

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Not at local elections, no.

It's silly to try and read a very basic and overly simplified national picture - such as: "oh the Lib Dems did well, it must be because they're a Remain Party" - into a set of local elections without taking into account a multitude of other factors, such as local issues and campaigning efforts, which are both of tremendous importance, and largely ignored by national media.

Hear what you're saying, but I think you're wrong. Most people have no idea what their local Councils are for, what they promise or whether they've delivered. Not one iota. They might have a feel for national issues, particularly now with Brexit. Votes for LDs, Greens etc this week might have been a protest vote, but it had a lot to do with the Brexit situation, one way or the other.

The first part may be true, but local campaigning (knocking on doors, canvassing etc.) makes a massive difference in local council wards. That's why so many independents gain seats at local elections, ousting party political rivals. That's one reason why the Greens (good local campaigners) have vastly outperformed UKIP in these elections, despite having similar Westminster polling numbers.

Anything is up for grabs at a local election, five years of being a political campaigner tells me this. Nothing is unwinnable. I know an independent in the Labour stronghold of Dewsbury who defeated a Labour rival on Thursday after campaigning solidly for two years; two Democrats and Veterans party candidates in Barnsley did likewise after a similar effort. This sort of result is repeated hundreds of times across the country for tiny parties and independents and skews and blurs the national picture. The same cannot be said in a GE, where as Truss rightly points out, it's a more binary choice and people are far more entrenched in their choices.

Yeah, I agree with what you say re. Independents. They're certainly more likely to put effort into campaigning, door-stepping etc. The main parties can't be arsed in most cases and/or take votes for granted.
I'm too cynical. We've seen absolutely diddly-squat from any candidates where I am. We had one leaflet from the crappy Tories; as if that was something to believe.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Over in Posh Disley...

Tory got 71% of the vote last time...

Just been kicked out this time with 25%..

Little Englanders want to wave their Union Jacks out in Bush land...

Disley isn't that posh

As for the vote it is foolish to say Brexit and the general state of politics has not had an influence, although as you have pointed out local politcs do matter.

Lib Dems did campaign with a remain message.

At the same time the take of May, Corbyn, and apparently the Express and possibly others, that the vote was all about impatience that Brexit had not happened, is simply laughable. Had there been a genuine pro brexit protest vote then surely UKIP would have benefitted. Now they have done well in Sunderland but they have been all but wiped out elsewhere.

lostinwales wrote:As for the vote it is foolish to say Brexit and the general state of politics has not had an influence, although as you have pointed out local politcs do matter.

Lib Dems did campaign with a remain message.

At the same time the take of May, Corbyn, and apparently the Express and possibly others, that the vote was all about impatience that Brexit had not happened, is simply laughable. Had there been a genuine pro brexit protest vote then surely UKIP would have benefitted. Now they have done well in Sunderland but they have been all but wiped out elsewhere.

Quite. I'm not sure which I hate more - the initial schidt of the parties, or the fact they think spinning a result to suit themselves (as if anyone can't see through it) is acceptable. **** off!

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Not at local elections, no.

It's silly to try and read a very basic and overly simplified national picture - such as: "oh the Lib Dems did well, it must be because they're a Remain Party" - into a set of local elections without taking into account a multitude of other factors, such as local issues and campaigning efforts, which are both of tremendous importance, and largely ignored by national media.

Hear what you're saying, but I think you're wrong. Most people have no idea what their local Councils are for, what they promise or whether they've delivered. Not one iota. They might have a feel for national issues, particularly now with Brexit. Votes for LDs, Greens etc this week might have been a protest vote, but it had a lot to do with the Brexit situation, one way or the other.

The first part may be true, but local campaigning (knocking on doors, canvassing etc.) makes a massive difference in local council wards. That's why so many independents gain seats at local elections, ousting party political rivals. That's one reason why the Greens (good local campaigners) have vastly outperformed UKIP in these elections, despite having similar Westminster polling numbers.

Anything is up for grabs at a local election, five years of being a political campaigner tells me this. Nothing is unwinnable. I know an independent in the Labour stronghold of Dewsbury who defeated a Labour rival on Thursday after campaigning solidly for two years; two Democrats and Veterans party candidates in Barnsley did likewise after a similar effort. This sort of result is repeated hundreds of times across the country for tiny parties and independents and skews and blurs the national picture. The same cannot be said in a GE, where as Truss rightly points out, it's a more binary choice and people are far more entrenched in their choices

So why did the Tories do so well in the last local elections?

They had a small net loss of councillors in the 2018 elections. If you're referring to 2017, when they had good gains, I seem to remember that that was largely because UKIP had collapsed as a capable party, and it was a reversal of the 2013 results.

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Not at local elections, no.

It's silly to try and read a very basic and overly simplified national picture - such as: "oh the Lib Dems did well, it must be because they're a Remain Party" - into a set of local elections without taking into account a multitude of other factors, such as local issues and campaigning efforts, which are both of tremendous importance, and largely ignored by national media.

Hear what you're saying, but I think you're wrong. Most people have no idea what their local Councils are for, what they promise or whether they've delivered. Not one iota. They might have a feel for national issues, particularly now with Brexit. Votes for LDs, Greens etc this week might have been a protest vote, but it had a lot to do with the Brexit situation, one way or the other.

The first part may be true, but local campaigning (knocking on doors, canvassing etc.) makes a massive difference in local council wards. That's why so many independents gain seats at local elections, ousting party political rivals. That's one reason why the Greens (good local campaigners) have vastly outperformed UKIP in these elections, despite having similar Westminster polling numbers.

Anything is up for grabs at a local election, five years of being a political campaigner tells me this. Nothing is unwinnable. I know an independent in the Labour stronghold of Dewsbury who defeated a Labour rival on Thursday after campaigning solidly for two years; two Democrats and Veterans party candidates in Barnsley did likewise after a similar effort. This sort of result is repeated hundreds of times across the country for tiny parties and independents and skews and blurs the national picture. The same cannot be said in a GE, where as Truss rightly points out, it's a more binary choice and people are far more entrenched in their choices

So why did the Tories do so well in the last local elections?

They had a small net loss of councillors in the 2018 elections. If you're referring to 2017, when they had good gains, I seem to remember that that was largely because UKIP had collapsed as a capable party, and it was a reversal of the 2013 results.

So wider political goings-on do have an effect then? Because the Tories aren't really a door-knocking party, as I'm sure you're aware.

To suggest that the Lib Dem gains have nothing to do with Brexit is either naive or deliberately misleading.

I think you’re both making valid points, and it is especially naive to think people swinging so markedly from the two major parties is all in answer to local politics and services.

Independents can benefit just as much as anyone else. If you feel betrayed by your usual party of preference, your vote becomes very open. Especially in elections that we all well know people often care less about; it’s the perfect time to register your feelings.

I'm not certain that local elections can be read as a proxy for national ; but surely the fact that that huge numbers of votes went from the pro-Brexit Tory and wishy washy Labour to the two parties who are clearly against the whole Leave business must be some indicator of a general mood swing in the country ? At least enough to suggest that testing the national will with a confirmatory referendum when - if - the major parties get around to putting an agreed deal on the table ?
My gut feeling is that a second referendum would produce a remain majority but I may well be hopelessly wrong in this. I can't honestly see though that it would hurt one way or another - apart from the cost and delay of which there has been plenty already. The argument that it would cause massive civil unrest seems to me to be nonsense : there is plenty of aggressive conflict already and I'd imagine a resolution - any resolution - would , after perhaps a brief display of anger from the "losers" , settle things down to a great degree.
Nothing will totally settle the argument anyway : if the UK eventually remains in , the UKIP mob will keep running for another try ..and if any sort of exit actually happens it is likely those who think that to be a massive mistake will be angling for a future government to think again...

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:General public sentiment towards political parties in any election = quite a lot to do with Brexit.

Don't you think?

Not at local elections, no.

It's silly to try and read a very basic and overly simplified national picture - such as: "oh the Lib Dems did well, it must be because they're a Remain Party" - into a set of local elections without taking into account a multitude of other factors, such as local issues and campaigning efforts, which are both of tremendous importance, and largely ignored by national media.

Hear what you're saying, but I think you're wrong. Most people have no idea what their local Councils are for, what they promise or whether they've delivered. Not one iota. They might have a feel for national issues, particularly now with Brexit. Votes for LDs, Greens etc this week might have been a protest vote, but it had a lot to do with the Brexit situation, one way or the other.

The first part may be true, but local campaigning (knocking on doors, canvassing etc.) makes a massive difference in local council wards. That's why so many independents gain seats at local elections, ousting party political rivals. That's one reason why the Greens (good local campaigners) have vastly outperformed UKIP in these elections, despite having similar Westminster polling numbers.

Anything is up for grabs at a local election, five years of being a political campaigner tells me this. Nothing is unwinnable. I know an independent in the Labour stronghold of Dewsbury who defeated a Labour rival on Thursday after campaigning solidly for two years; two Democrats and Veterans party candidates in Barnsley did likewise after a similar effort. This sort of result is repeated hundreds of times across the country for tiny parties and independents and skews and blurs the national picture. The same cannot be said in a GE, where as Truss rightly points out, it's a more binary choice and people are far more entrenched in their choices

So why did the Tories do so well in the last local elections?

They had a small net loss of councillors in the 2018 elections. If you're referring to 2017, when they had good gains, I seem to remember that that was largely because UKIP had collapsed as a capable party, and it was a reversal of the 2013 results.

So wider political goings-on do have an effect then? Because the Tories aren't really a door-knocking party, as I'm sure you're aware.

To suggest that the Lib Dem gains have nothing to do with Brexit is either naive or deliberately misleading.

I've never denied that, I've said it's 'not an awful lot to do with Brexit', and that overly simplified national pictures get inserted into very complex local ones. But Lib Dems gains in local elections are predominantly down to their ability to do local stuff well, just as UKIP losses are predominantly down to their inability to do local stuff well.

2017 was a reset of the highly unusual 2013 result. And, yes, the Tories are a 'door-knocking party' in the conventional sense (albeit they struggled for activists this year, considering the national shenanigans).

So you're saying that a huge swing away from all of the pro-leave parties towards the only pro-remain party, a party that has been laughed at for the last three years is predominantly down to local campaigning and very little to do with Brexit?

You genuinely believe that?

Why are they now only suddenly able to donthings well locally? Coincidental

Pr4wn wrote:So you're saying that a huge swing away from all of the pro-leave parties towards the only pro-remain party, a party that has been laughed at for the last three years is predominantly down to local campaigning and very little to do with Brexit?

You genuinely believe that?

'All the pro-leave parties'? There's only one, from the perspective of a Leaver. Two if you include Northern Ireland and the DUP.

And yes, I do believe that. Unlike yourself, I actually live in the UK and have direct experience of these matters.

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Why are they now only suddenly able to donthings well locally? Coincidental

They've always done things well, locally. The Lib Dems are regarded as the best local campaigners in the country.

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:So you're saying that a huge swing away from all of the pro-leave parties towards the only pro-remain party, a party that has been laughed at for the last three years is predominantly down to local campaigning and very little to do with Brexit?

You genuinely believe that?

'All the pro-leave parties'? There's only one, from the perspective of a Leaver. Two if you include Northern Ireland and the DUP.

And yes, I do believe that. Unlike yourself, I actually live in the UK and have direct experience of these matters.

The Tories and Labour both support leaving the European Union, whether you say they do or not.

And if that second line is an attempt to back up your claim, then I feel sorry for you.

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:So you're saying that a huge swing away from all of the pro-leave parties towards the only pro-remain party, a party that has been laughed at for the last three years is predominantly down to local campaigning and very little to do with Brexit?

You genuinely believe that?

'All the pro-leave parties'? There's only one, from the perspective of a Leaver. Two if you include Northern Ireland and the DUP.

And yes, I do believe that. Unlike yourself, I actually live in the UK and have direct experience of these matters.

The Tories and Labour both support leaving the European Union, whether you say they do or not.

And if that second line is an attempt to back up your claim, then I feel sorry for you.

Feel away, then. The point is, you seem to think that pro-Leavers have turned away from leave supporting parties, such as the Tories or Labour, and have supported remain-alternatives, such as the Lib Dems. This would be all well and good except hardly any pro-leavers regard the Tories or Labour as pro-Leave (hence why a lot of Remain supporters still vote Labour, and the Tories are 13% in the current European polls).

It's quite ironic, really. Earlier in the thread, you accused me (with no supporting evidence whatsoever) that 'You appear to think that events have something or nothing to do with Brexit whenever it suits you.' This is exactly what you're doing now - trying to read some Brexit-reversal swing into a set of local elections held in certain areas of the country, where the biggest pro-Brexit party didn't even field a solitary candidate, on a low turnout.

We'll get a bigger indication of what is happening with regards to Brexit at the upcoming European Elections.

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:So you're saying that a huge swing away from all of the pro-leave parties towards the only pro-remain party, a party that has been laughed at for the last three years is predominantly down to local campaigning and very little to do with Brexit?

You genuinely believe that?

'All the pro-leave parties'? There's only one, from the perspective of a Leaver. Two if you include Northern Ireland and the DUP.

And yes, I do believe that. Unlike yourself, I actually live in the UK and have direct experience of these matters.

The Tories and Labour both support leaving the European Union, whether you say they do or not.

And if that second line is an attempt to back up your claim, then I feel sorry for you.

Feel away, then. The point is, you seem to think that pro-Leavers have turned away from leave supporting parties, such as the Tories or Labour, and have supported remain-alternatives, such as the Lib Dems. This would be all well and good except hardly any pro-leavers regard the Tories or Labour as pro-Leave (hence why a lot of Remain supporters still vote Labour,  and the Tories are 13% in the current European polls).

It's quite ironic, really. Earlier in the thread, you accused me (with no supporting evidence whatsoever) that 'You appear to think that events have something or nothing to do with Brexit whenever it suits you.' This is exactly what you're doing now - trying to read some Brexit-reversal swing into a set of local elections held in certain areas of the country, where the biggest pro-Brexit party didn't even field a solitary candidate, on a low turnout.

We'll get a bigger indication of what is happening with regards to Brexit at the upcoming European Elections.

I'm suggesting there are fewer "pro-leavers" than there were.

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:So you're saying that a huge swing away from all of the pro-leave parties towards the only pro-remain party, a party that has been laughed at for the last three years is predominantly down to local campaigning and very little to do with Brexit?

You genuinely believe that?

'All the pro-leave parties'? There's only one, from the perspective of a Leaver. Two if you include Northern Ireland and the DUP.

And yes, I do believe that. Unlike yourself, I actually live in the UK and have direct experience of these matters.

The Tories and Labour both support leaving the European Union, whether you say they do or not.

And if that second line is an attempt to back up your claim, then I feel sorry for you.

Factually inaccurate.......Labour support respecting the referendum result..

Labour campaigned to stay part of the Union...

Facts matter !!

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:So you're saying that a huge swing away from all of the pro-leave parties towards the only pro-remain party, a party that has been laughed at for the last three years is predominantly down to local campaigning and very little to do with Brexit?

You genuinely believe that?

'All the pro-leave parties'? There's only one, from the perspective of a Leaver. Two if you include Northern Ireland and the DUP.

And yes, I do believe that. Unlike yourself, I actually live in the UK and have direct experience of these matters.

The Tories and Labour both support leaving the European Union, whether you say they do or not.

And if that second line is an attempt to back up your claim, then I feel sorry for you.

Factually inaccurate.......Labour support respecting the referendum result..

Labour campaigned to stay part of the Union...

Facts matter !!

And the referendum result was? Facts matter space two exclamation marks.

Labour haven't ruled out a second referendum...

Tories have...

False equivalence gets us nowhere..

Labour's primary aim, at least as far as the leadership is concerned, is to honour the result of the referendum. That's been stated countless times.

In wake of the big gains for Lib Dems last week, suggesting they are finally picking up from their post-coalition doldrums, I'm puzzled somewhat on why the Change UK lot felt the need to create a new party rather than defect to Lib Dems. Maybe they calculated that post-coalition the Lib Dems are still a tarnished brand e.g. on austerity, but the Lib Dems still have far more recognition than Change UK, and is there really such a big policy difference for them to start a new Centrist party?

I found the timing of Change UK's launch really odd. If there was such a concern on Labour's Brexit position why didn't they start the party back when Article 50 was triggered? Instead they launched after a series of key votes and at a time when their emergence distracted from the need for political consensus against no deal Brexit.

I would also argue that they are fracturing the anti-Brexit vote in EU elections and increasing risk of Farage coming out on top.

MrInvisible wrote:In wake of the big gains for Lib Dems last week, suggesting they are finally picking up from their post-coalition doldrums, I'm puzzled somewhat on why the Change UK lot felt the need to create a new party rather than defect to Lib Dems.  Maybe they calculated that post-coalition the Lib Dems are still a tarnished brand e.g. on austerity, but the Lib Dems still have far more recognition than Change UK, and is there really such a big policy difference for them to start a new Centrist party?

I found the timing of Change UK's launch really odd.  If there was such a concern on Labour's Brexit position why didn't they start the party back when Article 50 was triggered?  Instead they launched after a series of key votes and at a time when their emergence distracted from the need for political consensus against no deal Brexit.

I would also argue that they are fracturing the anti-Brexit vote in EU elections and increasing risk of Farage coming out on top.

1. They thought that the Lib Dems were a tarnished brand...

2. They are made up of Tories and Blairites.....I imagine they are to the right of the Lib Dems....

3. Chuku Ummuna who is basically the head man of this Party wants to be the next Macron...He is in it for himself..

I imagine they will have to go in with the Lib Dems eventually..Though I did think the Lib Dems did benefit from being a protest vote in Labour and Tory areas on Thursday.............in a Binary GE I fear this comeback may dissipate somewhat.

The Brexit Party have opened applications for candidates for Westminster elections. At least they're more organised than UKIP ever were...

And Gorgeous George Galloway pushing hard to be selected as the Brexit Party candidate for the Peterborough by-election. The unholy alliance of Farage and Galloway.

Galloway will be too controversial as an anti Israel campaigner for Farage to accept him..

I imagine there is plenty of Jewish support for The Brexit Party....Not that anything is wrong with that or right with it..

Panelbase (GE poll)

Lab.....36
Con.....27
Brex....13
Lib.......8
Ukip.....5
Change.5
Green...3

If Galloway is in Peterborough, it’s not a long train journey when I’m next in the country to egg him. Silver linings

Why waste a good egg.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Why waste a good egg.

Use some rotten eggs? Better all round.

Duty281 wrote:Righty'o, I think it's time to make one heap of all your winnings, and risk it on the 4/9 still available that the Brexit Party win the European Elections.

Got on just in time it seems - best price available now is 1/6. 1/16 at most places. Bookmakers think it's a done deal.

And they're making the Brexit Party odds-on favourites for the Peterborough by-election.

Never did think much of Peterborough...

Can't argue with those odds pertaining to the Euros..

Not sure how Peterborough will go...

By all accounts an underwhelming choice of candidate Farage has chosen...

Suppose it depends how far they can reach into the Tory vote as to what happens..

Wouldn't bet on Peterborough as a low turnout can throw up anything..

Though if the Brexit Party nail it in the Euros they will have the momentum.

More interesting in Peterborough is the Change UK party haven't fielded a candidate, and Anna Soubry was keen to blame Labour shenanigans for it.

Labour surely have the advantage in Peterborough. Thousands of postal votes already sewn up and an organisational structure already in place. The Brexit Party may have momentum, but it didn't do UKIP any favours in the Newark by-election in 2014.