Brexit

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Duty281 wrote:So a good day for the Prime Minister, at last. Motion carried and some pesky amendments defeated.

Yes folks a good day for the PM is telling the Country over 50 times in the Commons the UK is leaving on the 29th March and then winning an extension..

What a low bar..

Beer wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Corbyn had a golden opportunity to champion the second referendum and really get the majority of the country behind him but he's, predictably, too much of an idealist.

May is possibly the worst PM in the history of the country.

Labour's marginal targets are in leave areas.  

If Remain wins a second referendum 52-48 what happens then ??

If a second referendum is so popular why are TIG..The Lib Dems and Greens polling so low ??

Your post hasn't got much going for it..

Difference being that any 2nd Ref would be based on the ACTUAL terms of Brexit, rather than misleading information slapped on the side of a bus.

Thats undemocratic though. Somehow.

Samo wrote:

Beer wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Corbyn had a golden opportunity to champion the second referendum and really get the majority of the country behind him but he's, predictably, too much of an idealist.

May is possibly the worst PM in the history of the country.

Labour's marginal targets are in leave areas.  

If Remain wins a second referendum 52-48 what happens then ??

If a second referendum is so popular why are TIG..The Lib Dems and Greens polling so low ??

Your post hasn't got much going for it..

Difference being that any 2nd Ref would be based on the ACTUAL terms of Brexit, rather than misleading information slapped on the side of a bus.

Thats undemocratic though.  Somehow.

What is undemocratic is a minority government and even worse a tiny subgroup of i.e. ERG trying to force through parliament a deal (or a no deal), which both come way short of what was promised by brexit without giving the public a vote or GE to gain an actual mandate for what they have negotiated.

This all stems from Cameron thinking he couldn't lose. (He truly learnt nothing from the Scottish independence referendum, when he was visibly panicked in the last week of campaigning as in dawned on him that the Scottish people might actually vote to leave the UK.) Given that a majority voting to leave was possible, however unlikely he might have considered it to be, he should have prepared accordingly, and actually pinned down what leaving the EU meant before the campaigning began. In the absence of there being a single 'leaving the EU' entity, Leave campaigners were free to sell it as whatever voters wanted it to be. It was an EveryBrexit. The fact that it would always have to become a coherent 'leaving the EU' never bothered those Leave campaigners. All they cared about was winning the vote. Alas, winning the vote was not the end but the beginning, and to be honest I'm glad they're struggling to get it over the line. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail!

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Corbyn had a golden opportunity to champion the second referendum and really get the majority of the country behind him but he's, predictably, too much of an idealist.

May is possibly the worst PM in the history of the country.

Labour's marginal targets are in leave areas.  

If Remain wins a second referendum 52-48 what happens then ??

If a second referendum is so popular why are TIG..The Lib Dems and Greens polling so low ??

Your post hasn't got much going for it..

He shouldn't be championing a Remain or Leave referendum. The second referendum should be how we are leaving. If Corbyn championed this, then he could win over some of the floating voters in those leave marginal.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:This all stems from Cameron thinking he couldn't lose. (He truly learnt nothing from the Scottish independence referendum, when he was visibly panicked in the last week of campaigning as in dawned on him that the Scottish people might actually vote to leave the UK.) Given that a majority voting to leave was possible, however unlikely he might have considered it to be, he should have prepared accordingly, and actually pinned down what leaving the EU meant before the campaigning began. In the absence of there being a single 'leaving the EU' entity, Leave campaigners were free to sell it as whatever voters wanted it to be. It was an EveryBrexit. The fact that it would always have to become a coherent 'leaving the EU' never bothered those Leave campaigners. All they cared about was winning the vote. Alas, winning the vote was not the end but the beginning, and to be honest I'm glad they're struggling to get it over the line. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail!

From the outside all this would be hilarious. Unfortunately everyone still in the UK will get dragged down into the brown stuff with them.

Afro wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Corbyn had a golden opportunity to champion the second referendum and really get the majority of the country behind him but he's, predictably, too much of an idealist.

May is possibly the worst PM in the history of the country.

Labour's marginal targets are in leave areas.  

If Remain wins a second referendum 52-48 what happens then ??

If a second referendum is so popular why are TIG..The Lib Dems and Greens polling so low ??

Your post hasn't got much going for it..

He shouldn't be championing a Remain or Leave referendum. The second referendum should be how we are leaving. If Corbyn championed this, then he could win over some of the floating voters in those leave marginal.

Yes we are deadlocked but first ref was 'advisory' with a small margin of victory even allowing for the illegality. Getting a 2nd ref going at all is hard enough, but it will never fly without a remain option. I do occasionally wonder if remain voices would be more likely to be heard if the marches were not so peaceable

Samo wrote:

Beer wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Corbyn had a golden opportunity to champion the second referendum and really get the majority of the country behind him but he's, predictably, too much of an idealist.

May is possibly the worst PM in the history of the country.

Labour's marginal targets are in leave areas.  

If Remain wins a second referendum 52-48 what happens then ??

If a second referendum is so popular why are TIG..The Lib Dems and Greens polling so low ??

Your post hasn't got much going for it..

Difference being that any 2nd Ref would be based on the ACTUAL terms of Brexit, rather than misleading information slapped on the side of a bus.

Thats undemocratic though.  Somehow.

Oh yeah? And who're the independent experts who will tell us exactly what it all means for the Country? No-one knows WTF the actual effects will be, one way or the other. What makes you think Brexiteers from Ref1 will believe the info?

lostinwales wrote:

Afro wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Corbyn had a golden opportunity to champion the second referendum and really get the majority of the country behind him but he's, predictably, too much of an idealist.

May is possibly the worst PM in the history of the country.

Labour's marginal targets are in leave areas.  

If Remain wins a second referendum 52-48 what happens then ??

If a second referendum is so popular why are TIG..The Lib Dems and Greens polling so low ??

Your post hasn't got much going for it..

He shouldn't be championing a Remain or Leave referendum. The second referendum should be how we are leaving. If Corbyn championed this, then he could win over some of the floating voters in those leave marginal.

Yes we are deadlocked but first ref was 'advisory' with a small margin of victory even allowing for the illegality. Getting a 2nd ref going at all is hard enough, but it will never fly without a remain option. I do occasionally wonder if remain voices would be more likely to be heard if the marches were not so peaceable

Interesting idea, but I can see the cries of "Hypocrites!" from here. The trouble isn't being 'heard', it's that what's being said isn't addressing the problem of overturning the referendum outcome before it's even been enacted, that Brexiteers are fed up of being called 'thick' etc and that, frankly, most of them don't believe what Remainers are saying the outcomes for the UK will be. Positions are too entrenched now.

I suspect the politicians know exactly what's going to happen; most of them are at least reasonably clever and have access to evidence we'll never see, even if they're in hock to petty politicking over what's best for the UK and money making. What a mess...

'Remain' voices never stop being heard. The 'Remain' side have been in full campaign mode for the past three and a half years. It's a ceaseless barrage.

Anyway, a sort of vote on the deal tomorrow. If it's passed, we leave on May 22 with the deal. If not, we're heading for no-deal on April 12 (unless May conjures up something else in the meantime).

The EU seem to believe, at this stage, that it will be no-deal on April 12. The vote tomorrow will be a lot closer, but it being rejected still looks the most likely outcome.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Samo wrote:

Beer wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Corbyn had a golden opportunity to champion the second referendum and really get the majority of the country behind him but he's, predictably, too much of an idealist.

May is possibly the worst PM in the history of the country.

Labour's marginal targets are in leave areas.  

If Remain wins a second referendum 52-48 what happens then ??

If a second referendum is so popular why are TIG..The Lib Dems and Greens polling so low ??

Your post hasn't got much going for it..

Difference being that any 2nd Ref would be based on the ACTUAL terms of Brexit, rather than misleading information slapped on the side of a bus.

Thats undemocratic though.  Somehow.

Oh yeah? And who're the independent experts who will tell us exactly what it all means for the Country? No-one knows WTF the actual effects will be, one way or the other. What makes you think Brexiteers from Ref1 will believe the info?

Nothing is certain in politics, but you cant deny that we have a clearer picture now than we did 3 years ago.

Duty281 wrote:'Remain' voices never stop being heard. The 'Remain' side have been in full campaign mode for the past three and a half years. It's a ceaseless barrage.

Thats a bit rich considering there are political parties set up decades ago with the sole purpose of taking us out of the EU.

Duty281 wrote:'Remain' voices never stop being heard. The 'Remain' side have been in full campaign mode for the past three and a half years. It's a ceaseless barrage.

Anyway, a sort of vote on the deal tomorrow. If it's passed, we leave on May 22 with the deal. If not, we're heading for no-deal on April 12 (unless May conjures up something else in the meantime).

The EU seem to believe, at this stage, that it will be no-deal on April 12. The vote tomorrow will be a lot closer, but it being rejected still looks the most likely outcome.

But the EU will cave in at the last minute to prevent no deal. Boris Johnson and David Davis said so, so it must be true.

So what is this news that Theresa May is promising to resign as soon as her deal is passed in Parliament as an incentive for MPs to vote for her deal? It doesn't make sense for Theresa May to resign if her deal is passed - given that it is "her deal" and therefore she would be the best person to prepare for it and to bring it into force in the days leading up to May 22nd and beyond.

And if her resigning is an incentive for the passing of the May Deal - what if the House wanted her to get her kit off and personally lapdance for them - would she do that if it afforded her more votes?

I suspect that may have already happened at the 1922 committee.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I suspect that may have already happened at the 1922 committee.

I suspect that she threatened to do so to get her way

Difficult not to see a GE in the near future.....Can't see the WA being passed....Can't see the Tories wanting May to continue deal or not....Can't see a new leader with no majority not wanting to take on Corbyn while he is still there..

Britain has now entered the twilight zone - or zombie time.  Britain is existing on borrowed extended time. It should be out of EU but the UK Parliament is in deadlock.  

Britain has leaders that want to resign at the drop of a hat - David Cameron has already gone and Theresa May seems to be pleading to be allowed to resign if only Parliament would pass her deal.  But the logic of her resigning immediately if her deal is passed is nonsensical - a dereliction of leadership.

So in this twilight zone Britain has to 12th April (preferably before) to come up with something the EC/EU can accept - otherwise it is a no deal exit by default for 13th April (for which there has been little to no planning for in Britain).

It still seems that the EU/EC will accept "May's Deal" if it is offered to them - but that is not looking likely that that will be passed by Parliament?

The only other option seems to be a long extension (18 months?) with MEP elections for May 23rd - but if that happens surely the whole credibility of Government/Parliament will be thrown onto the garbage tip - because that would mean holding MEP Elections more or less three years after a referendum in which the majority of voters voted to Leave - a referendum which was part of a manifesto pledge that gave David Cameron's Conservative Party a win in the 2015 General Election.

With a long extension plus participation in the MEP elections - Theresa May is already on record in saying she will no longer be able to guarantee that Britain will leave the EU.  Surely Brexit politicians will have to support May's Deal if they want to ensure a "leave"?

Duty281 wrote:'Remain' voices never stop being heard. The 'Remain' side have been in full campaign mode for the past three and a half years. It's a ceaseless barrage.

Anyway, a sort of vote on the deal tomorrow. If it's passed, we leave on May 22 with the deal. If not, we're heading for no-deal on April 12 (unless May conjures up something else in the meantime).

The EU seem to believe, at this stage, that it will be no-deal on April 12. The vote tomorrow will be a lot closer, but it being rejected still looks the most likely outcome.

Didn't you previously say that the most likely outcome was that we would leave without a deal today?  

Anyway - Happy Brexit Day everyone!  The lack of sovereignty has left me feeling utterly violated.  We're so f*cking oppressed.

They’re still selling Camembert at Waitrose, we’ve been sold down the river.

Foreign people coming over here and eating their own cheese.

Lucky we still have fine British dining establishments like Pret A Manger and Wahaca to escape the c*nts.

Galted wrote:They’re still selling Camembert at Waitrose, we’ve been sold down the river.

That's in Seine.

No name Bertie wrote:And if her resigning is an incentive for the passing of the May Deal - what if the House wanted her to get her kit off and personally lapdance for them - would she do that if it afforded her more votes?  

That's revolting.

Imagine being May, though. Imagine wanting to be PM for your entire life. Engineering your whole career, finally seizing your opportunity, finally getting that dream job.

Only to find out you're actually really Poopie at it.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Galted wrote:They’re still selling Camembert at Waitrose, we’ve been sold down the river.

That's in Seine.

Eiffel up with rage at sh*t puns like that.

Samo wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Samo wrote:

Beer wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Corbyn had a golden opportunity to champion the second referendum and really get the majority of the country behind him but he's, predictably, too much of an idealist.

May is possibly the worst PM in the history of the country.

Labour's marginal targets are in leave areas.  

If Remain wins a second referendum 52-48 what happens then ??

If a second referendum is so popular why are TIG..The Lib Dems and Greens polling so low ??

Your post hasn't got much going for it..

Difference being that any 2nd Ref would be based on the ACTUAL terms of Brexit, rather than misleading information slapped on the side of a bus.

Thats undemocratic though.  Somehow.

Oh yeah? And who're the independent experts who will tell us exactly what it all means for the Country? No-one knows WTF the actual effects will be, one way or the other. What makes you think Brexiteers from Ref1 will believe the info?

Nothing is certain in politics, but you cant deny that we have a clearer picture now than we did 3 years ago.

I can if my view is to leave the EU. Why would I trust the 'experts' now, anymore than when I thought it was all 'Project Fear' before? See the problem?

Samo wrote:

Duty281 wrote:'Remain' voices never stop being heard. The 'Remain' side have been in full campaign mode for the past three and a half years. It's a ceaseless barrage.

Thats a bit rich considering there are political parties set up decades ago with the sole purpose of taking us out of the EU.

But they haven't been banging on about it that much (cf. Remain-leaning sources) since the Ref2016 outcome, have they? That was the point.

lostinwales wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:I suspect that may have already happened at the 1922 committee.

I suspect that she threatened to do so to get her way

Now, now...

Pr4wn wrote:Imagine being May, though. Imagine wanting to be PM for your entire life. Engineering your whole career, finally seizing your opportunity, finally getting that dream job.

Only to find out you're actually really Poopie at it.

Tough gig though, and easier to oppose/criticise (unless you're Corbyn, who's schidt at it). Think any of the other political pipsqueaks would have done better? I'm not so sure. Basically, it's a complete mess.

Random thought. What if May wins tonight's vote (and then subsequently any vote on the PD) and then calls a GE and announces she won't be standing as an MP in it, rather than just steps down as appears to be assumed will happen? She's done her bit, left EU, legacy assured, Boris et al royally p!ssed off. Win/win?

Happy Brexit day everyone!

Whatever happens from here (and I am bracing for the worst - a no deal terrifies me), the fact that May's robotic 'we're leaving the EU on 29th March' hasn't come to pass brings a smile for today at least.

The sudden enthusiasm amongst ERG for MV3 makes me suspicious - feels like they're plotting to get a hardline Brexiter in post to rip it all up post 22nd May and force us into something else.

What I think should happen (which may bear no relation to what actually will happen!) to get out of this mess is as follows:

1. Further indicative votes based on this week's amendments to find the most popular deal in House of Commons - whether Common Market 2.0, Canada Plus, etc
2. Revoke Article 50 to remove the immediate risk of crashing out with no deal/insufficient preparation.
3. Meet with EU to discuss feasibility of progressing further deal which has parliamentary support.
4. If no agreement reached with EU go back to step 1. If agreement reached, hold referendum on the chosen Brexit deal vs Remain.
5. Hold Referendum. If majority for Remain, go back to sorting out the million other issues that need sorting out. If majority for deal, re-trigger Article 50, agree timetable for Scottish independence referendum so that Scotland can stay in EU.

MrInvisible wrote:The sudden enthusiasm amongst ERG for MV3 makes me suspicious - feels like they're plotting to get a hardline Brexiter in post to rip it all up post 22nd May and force us into something else.

The good thing is that Labour MPs are wise to that. Lisa Nandy:

"The prime minister seems to have done some kind of deal with her own side that she will go if the withdrawal agreement is passed.

"Obviously that raises the prospect of somebody, a hard Brexiteer, taking over not just the Tory party but the country, and being in charge in those next stages of negotiations.

"It is why many Labour MPs who were considering voting for the deal in the interests of the country now believe it would not be in the interests of the country to do so...

"I think the prime minister has made a big mistake this week, because she may have provided some reassurance to colleagues on her side but it's had precisely the opposite effect on ours."

May inching ever closer to getting her deal passed with Raab now backing it and rumours of a handful of Labour MPs switching over.

But it still looks as though she'll come up short.

Consensus seems to be that she'll come up short.

Raab is an actual moron. "It's a bad deal but I'll vote for it". What a dick!

superflyweight wrote:Consensus seems to be that she'll come up short.  

Raab is an actual moron.  "It's a bad deal but I'll vote for it".  What a dick!

I think this is the only conclusion. Trained in law with a history (if I remember correctly) of advising on European law. He is also the child of an immigrant. And yet, despite all this and his time as Brexit secretary he was somehow unaware of the importance of the Dover Calais link for trade.

You sometimes have to wonder if part of the deal of reaching that level of government is that they have to have a lobotomy.

It baffles me that anyone could support Raab, Mogg and Boris.

Maddening affair completely. MP around my wild ends, Lucy Fraser, completely ignored the views of her constituents in her votes on the indicative waffle. Unsurprising, the time I met her she was a complete c***

Michel Barnier (EC Chief Negotiator on the Brexit process) is now on record in saying that approval of the Withdrawal Agreement by 29th March guarantees Britains extension to May 22nd.

If it is not approved today then Britain will be granted an extension to April 12th - the date by which Britain has to confirm it will be participating in the MEP elections of 23rd May.

lostinwales wrote:

superflyweight wrote:Consensus seems to be that she'll come up short.  

Raab is an actual moron.  "It's a bad deal but I'll vote for it".  What a dick!

I think this is the only conclusion. Trained in law with a history (if I remember correctly) of advising on European law. He is also the child of an immigrant. And yet, despite all this and his time as Brexit secretary he was somehow unaware of the importance of the Dover Calais link for trade.

You sometimes have to wonder if part of the deal of reaching that level of government is that they have to have a lobotomy.

Law is like all walks of life and anyone who has practised would be able to confirm that there are a large number of idiots across the profession. Unfortunately being trained to memorise certain facts and present an argument in a confident manner doesn't require all that much intelligence - but it does prepare you well for mediocre government.

superflyweight wrote:

lostinwales wrote:

superflyweight wrote:Consensus seems to be that she'll come up short.  

Raab is an actual moron.  "It's a bad deal but I'll vote for it".  What a dick!

I think this is the only conclusion. Trained in law with a history (if I remember correctly) of advising on European law. He is also the child of an immigrant. And yet, despite all this and his time as Brexit secretary he was somehow unaware of the importance of the Dover Calais link for trade.

You sometimes have to wonder if part of the deal of reaching that level of government is that they have to have a lobotomy.

Law is like all walks of life and anyone who has practised would be able to confirm that there are a large number of idiots across the profession.  Unfortunately being trained to memorise certain facts and present an argument in a confident manner doesn't require all that much intelligence - but it does prepare you well for mediocre government.  

Confirmed... With bells on.

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:It baffles me that anyone could support Raab, Mogg and Boris.

Maddening affair completely. MP around my wild ends, Lucy Fraser, completely ignored the views of her constituents in her votes on the indicative waffle. Unsurprising, the time I met her she was a complete c***

This is a problem. The local MP by us, David TC Davis, is as arrogant as they come and is as far-right as the tories come. The man makes me angry that he is representing me in parliament as I don't want to be associated with someone so condescending.

Have a look for his video when he was last on BBC news. The way he spoke to the Labour MP (can't remember her name) was completely out of order, to extent that he was pulled up on by the presenter and he walked off

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

MrInvisible wrote:The sudden enthusiasm amongst ERG for MV3 makes me suspicious - feels like they're plotting to get a hardline Brexiter in post to rip it all up post 22nd May and force us into something else.

The good thing is that Labour MPs are wise to that. Lisa Nandy:

"The prime minister seems to have done some kind of deal with her own side that she will go if the withdrawal agreement is passed.

"Obviously that raises the prospect of somebody, a hard Brexiteer, taking over not just the Tory party but the country, and being in charge in those next stages of negotiations.

"It is why many Labour MPs who were considering voting for the deal in the interests of the country now believe it would not be in the interests of the country to do so...

"I think the prime minister has made a big mistake this week, because she may have provided some reassurance to colleagues on her side but it's had precisely the opposite effect on ours."

So, in other words, playing party politics. Again.

superflyweight wrote:Consensus seems to be that she'll come up short.  

Raab is an actual moron.  "It's a bad deal but I'll vote for it".  What a dick!

Think you're correct there. What was that about Dover and our economy, Dominic? Heard him mentioned as possible PM FFS!

Afro wrote:

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:It baffles me that anyone could support Raab, Mogg and Boris.

Maddening affair completely. MP around my wild ends, Lucy Fraser, completely ignored the views of her constituents in her votes on the indicative waffle. Unsurprising, the time I met her she was a complete c***

This is a problem. The local MP by us, David TC Davis, is as arrogant as they come and is as far-right as the tories come. The man makes me angry that he is representing me in parliament as I don't want to be associated with someone so condescending.

Have a look for his video when he was last on BBC news. The way he spoke to the Labour MP (can't remember her name) was completely out of order, to extent that he was pulled up on by the presenter and he walked off

More grist to the anti-FPTP argument - it's a childish system that's not fit for the modern world and disenfranchises millions.

Aye - 286 No - 344

Samo wrote:Aye - 286 No - 344

Squeaky bum time...

The result as expected, the margin a touch wider than anticipated. There was talk of May losing by 10-20 and being able to bring the deal round for one more heave - I don't think that is possible now.

No-deal in 14 days time as it stands. It seems as though the EU are starting to acknowledge this outcome. Tusk has called an emergency summit on the 10th April, two days before exit day.

And really there's nothing more the UK government can do - a rubbish deal has been rejected, effectively, three times, and alternative plans of action cannot be agreed upon.

Two grown up and responsible things the government could do which would not (despite what anyone says to the contrary) compromise the result of the original referendum:

(1) They can ask for a longer extension and try to resolve the deadlock with a 2nd referendum or a General Election.  The EU will grant a longer extension.  

(2) They can revoke Article 50 and then start a detailed and collaborative cross-party consultation process to decide what kind of (achievable) Brexit is best for the country, give notice again under Article 50 and negotiate with the EU to try to achieve that.  If they wish, they could have a 2nd referendum to allow the public to decide if that Brexit is the Brexit they want.

superflyweight wrote:Two grown up and responsible things the government could do which would not (despite what anyone says to the contrary) compromise the result of the original referendum:

(1) They can ask for a longer extension and try to resolve the deadlock with a 2nd referendum or a General Election.  The EU will grant a longer extension.  

(2) They can revoke Article 50 and then start a detailed and collaborative cross-party consultation process to decide what kind of (achievable) Brexit is best for the country, give notice again under Article 50 and negotiate with the EU to try to achieve that.  If they wish, they could have a 2nd referendum to allow the public to decide if that Brexit is the Brexit they want.

Think those are the only real options (or no deal). Option 2 seems the most logical to me.

I expect option 1 is already agreed. The EU and May won't have been banking on this getting through parliament

Indicative vote on Monday may produce a consensus that would allow the UK to leave in May.

Rumours are No. 10 have scheduled a press conference for 5pm. Could May walk?

Samo wrote:Rumours are No. 10 have scheduled a press conference for 5pm. Could May walk?

Not without stepping on a rake.

Time to go Mrs May...