New Zealand Out Half Crisis

First topic message reminder :

Damian McKenzie, who has not been ruled out of the rugby world cup, was seemingly Steve Hansen's back up 10 for the All Blacks. Bearing in mind that no New Zealand based back up 10 has much in the way of international experience has Hansen been guilty of putting all his eggs in one basket at 10?

Possible back up players.

Richie Mo'unga - 10 caps, mostly as sub
Brett Cameron - 1 cap
Otere Black - 0 caps, Blues 10

or

Stephen Donald - 24 caps

I think its fair to say that NZ's hopes revolve a bit around Beauden Barrett.

Guns c0cked up his quote

How so? Seems right to me.

You’ve been going down the 7.5 ‘duh, please spell it out for me’ route lately guns, don’t lower your standards buddy

I haven't a clue what you're talking about though. Not a mind reader. Your call.

Seemed like you c0cked up the post above miaow’s, just saying

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Cyril wrote:I think SA may top their pool.

Sure, if they beat NZ first up. They demolished England in pool in 07 so thats possible. This is by far the toughest pool match NZ has ever had from memory so SA could get the jump. And overall just as losing to Ireland last year is currently paying for itself, a first ever pool loss for NZ wouldnt be a bad thing in terms of waking the side up. Post loss AB sides usually have a bit more ...sting shall we say

I can see SA beating New Zealand and then losing to Italy.

Looks like the correct use of the quote function to me. 

Taylorman wrote:

Cyril wrote:I think SA may top their pool.

Sure, if they beat NZ first up. They demolished England in pool in 07 so thats possible. This is by far the toughest pool match NZ has ever had from memory so SA could get the jump. And overall just as losing to Ireland last year is currently paying for itself, a first ever pool loss for NZ wouldnt be a bad thing in terms of waking the side up. Post loss AB sides usually have a bit more ...sting shall we say  

Apologies guns, the mobile version makes it look like you c0cked up the quote and is a little misleading. The desktop version shows it correctly. Glitch in the matrix?

miaow wrote:Nice to know NZ are planning another loss - strange it's in a RWC, but there we go. Suppose we jut have to defer to the nation that never loses...unless they want to...

We are told the SA NZ match is first, so that result is known before the ire- scot match, and nz is planning a loss?

Honestly, how thick are you?

And in all honesty, I think we’ll destroy the boks first match. Why? Because they wont care whether they meet ireland or scotland.

ebop wrote:Apologies guns, the mobile version makes it look like you c0cked up the quote and is a little misleading. The desktop version shows it correctly. Glitch in the matrix?

Maybe so.

Taylorman wrote:

miaow wrote:Nice to know NZ are planning another loss - strange it's in a RWC, but there we go. Suppose we jut have to defer to the nation that never loses...unless they want to...

We are told the SA NZ match is first, so that result is known before the ire- scot match, and nz is planning a loss?

Honestly, how thick are you?

And in all honesty, I think we’ll destroy the boks first match. Why? Because they wont care whether they meet ireland or scotland.

If SA don't care, which lets face it would be really odd given how often they lose v Ireland compared to how often they lose v Scotland, are you saying NZ would care who they face?

Last 10 games SA have lost 6 v Ireland vs 1 v Scotland. You really think they wouldn't care?

Taylorman wrote:

miaow wrote:Nice to know NZ are planning another loss - strange it's in a RWC, but there we go. Suppose we jut have to defer to the nation that never loses...unless they want to...

We are told the SA NZ match is first, so that result is known before the ire- scot match, and nz is planning a loss?

Honestly, how thick are you?

And in all honesty, I think we’ll destroy the boks first match. Why? Because they wont care whether they meet ireland or scotland.

It's clearly a joke because you've become a parody of yourself trying to wrap yourself in your own logic (which is basically exceptionalism drawn vicariously from the ABs team). You bring up England v SA in 07, as if somehow that's more important than SA beating NZ last year!?

Why aren't you on a SH/ABs specific forum if you want to extol the virtues of SH rugby? Or is it actually more to do with the fact you don't want to talk about the good, you jut want a NH-shaped bogeyman to hate?

Get a life ebop.

Can you please explain 7.5

Your pop at the top of the page. Uneccessary.

ebop wrote:Can you please explain 7.5

Haha. Quite funny tbf.

As someone who wums and can't answer questions I'm not surprised you find it funny miaow. Well done on only calling 1 person thick so far on this thread.

Can you explain what you mean by that?

Still waiting for your reply to a simple question on the England thread. Or do you mean calling another person thick? That's a number of threads.

I'll EXPLAIN it for you when you apologise for making up lies about what I've said.

No lies from me. You walking back your praise of Adams though is welcome.

Painful stuff.

p.s. 7.5 isn't a position, either...

After struggling to think of a name at the time and having England's woes at 7 Kvesic came into my thinking. He was at the time an out and out 7 but was moving to the 8 role more often. He's now playing there a lot for Exeter. Half way between the 2. Not even a question from you and I'm happy to explain. Easy and then we can all move on.

No 7&1/2 wrote:After struggling to think of a name at the time and having England's woes at 7 Kvesic came into my thinking. He was at the time an out and out 7 but was moving to the 8 role more often. He's now playing there a lot for Exeter. Half way between the 2. Not even a question from you and I'm happy to explain. Easy and then we can all move on.

You could put Simmonds, Clifford and arguably Haskell in a similar category

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

miaow wrote:Nice to know NZ are planning another loss - strange it's in a RWC, but there we go. Suppose we jut have to defer to the nation that never loses...unless they want to...

We are told the SA NZ match is first, so that result is known before the ire- scot match, and nz is planning a loss?

Honestly, how thick are you?

And in all honesty, I think we’ll destroy the boks first match. Why? Because they wont care whether they meet ireland or scotland.

If SA don't care, which lets face it would be really odd given how often they lose v Ireland compared to how often they lose v Scotland, are you saying NZ would care who they face?

Last 10 games SA have lost 6 v Ireland vs 1 v Scotland. You really think they wouldn't care?

In a world cup knockout? No. I dont think beating NZ specifically to avoid a ‘maybe Ireland’ would be the most motivating factor for that match. Certainly not when the Scot Ireland match isnt even known.

In this tourney you cant hide, and both SA and NZ hace faced tougher than Ireland in this tournament in the past and won, so beating NZ and the confidence from that would be more gratifying.

Scotland and Ireland will however more likely see their match as a must avoid NZ one so NZ losing to SA would be worth watching that match alone. Or youre saying Ireland are two from three vs NZ so also wont care? I doubt that somehow.

In saying that, Ireland have had more than their share of 'bad luck' for want of a better word so with the combination of generally lower standard SH sides this cycle, you'd have t expect a NH side to go further this round. Ireland and Scotland getting either NZ or SA when they could have had any one of argie, England, Wales, Oz in the other side is a shame. SA in a world cup is a different beast. Like France they can have lows...then highs...in the same tournament.

I did read somewhere that Ireland Rugby has as part of its goals 'making the semi finals' of the world cup, or similar, as a minimum.

If one were to explore that further and implement specific strategy towards meeting that specific goal, were SA to beat NZ Ireland MUST throw the Scotland match to have the best chance of getting to the semi's as part of its strategy.

If they don't, its either poor management of the strategy or a D.U.M.B, rather than S.M.A.R.T goal.

So taken literally, beating Scotland in that scenario violates the potential achievement of a major goal.

(Thats why half baked goals like 'semi's are silly). They don't do anyone any good. You either focus on winning the tournament, or not bothering going.

Imagine a player preparing for a semi and reading that goal...lose, and we are still a 'success'.

No I definitely prefer to face SA. Id be confident we would beat them. However there is no chance they are plannning to lose any games because they expect to win every game they play including NZ.

As they should, which makes making the semi final a specific goal a poorly set objective, because the most effective paths to it, are flawed.

That's the public objective in their 5 year plan. Of course they are going to set the bar slightly lower publicly. Under promise to over achieve hopefully. Ireland like all the top 8 are going there to try to win it.

I don’t think Ireland are at the ‘expect’ to win level are they? They’re good but not at the ‘expect-to-win’ level. They’re an emotional team and feed off a rabid crowd, which they probably won’t get in Japan. When the vibe is cold Ireland is cold.

ebop wrote:I don’t think Ireland are at the ‘expect’ to win level are they? They’re good but not at the ‘expect-to-win’ level. They’re an emotional team and feed off a rabid crowd, which they probably won’t get in Japan. When the vibe is cold Ireland is cold.

I disagree. After the NZ win in Nov Cian Healy revealed in an interview that they expected to win:

https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/international-rugby/alan-quinlan-on-conversation-cian-healy-that-revealed-the-most-intriguing-part-of-famous-win-37542378.html

I agree that Ireland used to be overly emotional but I think that the greatest thing Schmidt has done for them is to remove that over reliance on emotion and instead be a more mechanical process driven side. Emotional sides do not have as low penalty counts as Ireland do.

Not convinced about the rabid crowd theory nor the level of support in Japan. Ireland fans travel very very well. Just look at the crowd in the Ireland v Australia game in Eden park that Ireland won. Ireland fans outnumbered the Aussies in their neighbours back yard.

There’d be a fair few Irish expats living in Australia. Doubt the vast majority didn’t travel from Ireland. In japan, I’m sure there’ll be good representation from travelling fans but they won’t have the fan fare from expats that they’re used to in some countries they go to.

That’s great that Cian Healy expects Ireland to win every game, as you’d expect, but its a bit contrived to blurt it to the media. Remember when England were riding high a couple years ago and were talking themselves up as if they were better than sliced bread. But then they went to dogpoop, lol. It’s tough at the top. Does Healy still expect to win every game after the last 6Ns where they weren’t much chop?

Why wouldn't they? Did NZ still expect two win after losing at home to 7th ranked South Africa? Of course they did.

Had Belgium lost their group game with England in the football WC they would have stood a much better chance of winning it overall than finishing 3rd, their eventual position.

England, on the other hand, may not have reached the quarter finals.

Just like player management matters, sometimes throwing a game isn't a bad option.

Id rather they have a pop at NZ than throw a game just because it would meant they would have an easier game v SA. You have to prepare to beat everyone to win a world cup anyway.

How’s Ireland’s RWC record though? That’s got to be a mental hurdle for them.

ebop wrote:How’s Ireland’s RWC record though? That’s got to be a mental hurdle for them.

Yes probably but its not the be all and end all. Leinster face Saracens in the champions cup final this year.

Head to head Leinster have 3 wins and 0 losses v Sarries and have never lost a final in 4 attempts. However, I don't think Sarries will care that much in a one off game because they are good enough now.

Prior to the last RWC Ireland had never defeated France in 4 attempts at a RWC and yet they still smashed them in the group stages.

Likewise prior to the NZ world cup Ireland had never won against a SH side nor ever won their group and yet the beat Australia and won their group.

Prior to the last RWC NZ had never won one away and yet they did in the end.

Records are there to be broken.

Better to lose in the group and have to face NZ in a semi or final, when you really CAN rely on emotion to help you out, than face them in the QF having gone harder in the group to win every game.

It's never just an easy either/or situation. But there's definitely something to be said for being savvy at a RWC. Most of the top 8 - from 2 to 7/8 - can beat each other but you'd still take Scotland over SA, or France over England, every time. NZ are likewise to be avoided if possible - if you have the mindset of having to 'beat every team to be the best' then beat them in the final, not the QFs.

Incidentally, talking about public pronouncements v. actual beliefs/targets: you can absolutely guarantee that every team, players and coaches, wants to take the path of least resistance at a RWC. You can't not be aware of it in this day and age.

Pretty crazy talking about records in a game which is only entering its 6th professional incarnation...

Collapse2005 wrote:That's the public objective in their 5 year plan. Of course they are going to set the bar slightly lower publicly. Under promise to over achieve hopefully. Ireland like all the top 8 are going there to try to win it.

Yep fair enough

Collapse2005 wrote:Why wouldn't they? Did NZ still expect two win after losing at home to 7th ranked South Africa? Of course they did.

Yes, because they’ve won it every time. Can’t say the same for Ireland, and that’s Ebops point.

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Why wouldn't they? Did NZ still expect two win after losing at home to 7th ranked South Africa? Of course they did.

Yes, because they’ve won it every time. Can’t say the same for Ireland, and that’s Ebops point.

Won what every time?

Well not every time. The rugby championship- 6 from 7 since Argie joined- The cut down World Cup year went to oz with both NZ and SA matches in oz helping.
But with the full version there was every expectation to win after the SA loss, justifiably. If Ireland think they can have that level of expectation when the results don’t justify it, they’re wrong, though anyone can say they expect to do it.

In supposedly Irelands best ever period, 2016-19, they still lose one in every four tests. Away its almost one in two

ABs in the same period, a supposedly...and actual....poor period for them, lose one in 7, the away record of 90% better than the home record of 85%. Ireland have ‘nearly’ matched the AB home record for the period at 84%, but away at 57% fall way behind.

Irelands built its success largely by playing at home at 6N and AI time, with the odd good away win. Thats why AI and 6N successes make predictions at this years world cup, in Japan, in September, not as comforting as one might think.

To win this tournament Ireland must win three away tier one matches away in a row, and I cant find a single instance of that, and sure records are meant to be broken, but expecting to do that in Japan isnt something thats based on results.

Looks like Connachts decision not to take up Sevu Reece for his indiscretions could be the ABs bolter this year with a stunner for the Crusaders. Not much too him but sent bok Kwagga Smith flying on his way to the tryline. Stunning try. We may have found our right winger. Came here from Fiji at 14. Just for you guns

Something about the Crusaders that make ordinary people excel.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CzkbV7q4zpE

Those one off intercepts continue to be the debt for enterprising play, but ya just gotta do it to get anywhere.

Another Fijian hey?

Yes hes been very consistent to date and looks to be getting better by the day. Ennors had a very good start as well, as has Havili.

There could be a few imports in the NZ squad come world cup time.

Collapse2005 wrote:There could be a few imports in the NZ squad come world cup time.

Fkn hope so. Bout time

He arrived in NZ in 2014 so he must have been about 17.

NZ ?

Imports ?

Shut the front door !!

Yes, we import the raw materials, and throw them into the same mix as ours, the north buy the finished, tested and proven products at premium price kinda funny really, fools gold.

This is just a case of a kid moving to NZ that thrives within our system. We get that.