PGA Tour: US Open at Pebble Beach, Again: Notes from the Ballwasher

by kwinigolfer Tue 11 Jun 2019, 9:06 pm

1).A terrific win last week in Ontario for Rory McIlroy, a dominating Sunday performance going in to US Open play at Pebble Beach.
But does it really mean anything when considering who might play well this week?
One slightly quirk is that this will be the second of three straight events where the course will measure under 7,000 yards; wonder when that happened last? Length matters, but perhaps not quite so much as usual.

2).US Opens at Pebble Beach are anomalous in that the course is familiar to almost any Pro, whether by watching the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, playing in the Pro-Am or even from past US Opens, when of course June conditions can be vastly different from those in winter.

3).With all that in mind, it surely still doesn't hurt to have some course experience, preferably successful, and this is how I would run down the chances of leading players:

4).Four Californians against the field:
Mickelson, Woods, both of whom obviously have multiple wins here and played well behind McDowell in 2010. Phil is in terrible form recently, and Tiger hasn't played much, but you wouldn't put it past them.
Plus Patrick Cantlay who's playing as well as anyone right now, knows Pebble Beach and has finished T15 or better in every tournament he's finished this season. Only caveat with Cantlay is his driving accuracy, but the pros won't need driver on all but half a dozen holes anyway.
And Xander Schauffele who seemingly comes to play at every big event, has 4 x Top Tens (and 6 x Top 25's) in just 9 Majors played. (Plus a WGC and a runner up at The Players.)

5).Four who have great February records at Pebble Beach:
Spieth: But I can't see him winning again yet; in his current run it seems there's always something . . . . . .
Jason Day: Well, he DOES have Stevie Williams caddying . . . . . very consistent in February.
Snedeker: Played well last week and seems to love poa annua greens and traditional courses.
Dustin: Two wins, two runner ups, and could've, would've, should've in 2010. Last year's Open Championship is the only tournament where he's missed the cut since Erin Hills in 2017, second in both Majors so far this year and can't see any reason not to believe he can go one better this week. He'll be 35 within the fortnight and one Major ain't enough.

6).Five stars who I just can't see bringing it home:
Rory: He'll have to play his best two weeks running, and this set-up will be firm and demanding of his short game, good enough last week but Pebble's greens will be unforgiving.
Koepka: Length won't be a huge advantage here, and I'm guessing that'll cool his jets. He's just too damn good to rule out completely though.
Justin Thomas: Just coming back to form after a few weeks out with wrist problems. Not this week, but one to watch this summer.
Rose: Not much magic recently, not hitting it particularly straight off the tee and missing too many greens.
DeChambeau: No magic for months and is Pebble the right course for his golf-by-numbers theories?

7).Four Europeans:
Chico: Why not? No competitive rounds at Pebble since missing the 2010 cut won't help. No form, and not much play, since The Masters. Is the year-long purple patch fading?
Rahm: Two good tournaments at Pebble Beach but missed his last two cuts. Can't see the "W" but wouldn't be surprised to see him play well.
Garcia: Missed his last SEVEN Major cuts. Nope.
Stenson: Like Molinari, has only played Pebble at the 2010 US Open where he was 29th. Played well in Rory's wake but any magic in his putter seems to be fading.

8).Five Internationals:
Scott: Wants it so badly but needs to putt consistently and he doesn't do that often enough.
Oosthuizen: Raises his game for Majors but is walking wounded this spring.
Leishman: Maybe, just doesn't win often enough to inspire confidence. Top ten and could be anything.
Matsuyama: Never played Pebble competitively, just not quite at his form of a couple of years ago.
Grace: Like Louis, seems to raise his game for Majors but in terrible form.

9).The best of the rest of GB&I:
Casey: Not in great form right now but likes Pebble, runner-up behind Phil in February, and 8th last year. 12 years since his last US Open top ten.
Tommy: Hopefully rested after looking over-golfed. So consistent and not missed a cut since Open De France a year ago - and we know he made up for that.
Shane: Seems to love the place, in great form; each way chance?
McDowell: What a story that would be. By his own admission was putting the best of his life in the summer of 2010, but he's playing well. Another e.w. shot? Or looking past this week??

10).After all that drivel, I still like one of the young Californians, Cantlay & Xander, and DJ, and can't wait to see how Lowry does. Let's just hope the USGA get it right for once.

by Be_the_ball Tue 11 Jun 2019, 9:26 pm

Kwini,

Good call with Franny, could also be a Fleetwood breakthrough. I hope it's competitive

by McLaren Wed 12 Jun 2019, 2:25 am

Stevie Williams is a prick but a damn good caddie. Always hoped he would end up on Rory's bag.

Not sure I agree that length won't be a major advantage, if they all start playing 3 Woods or irons off the tee koepka is still longer with those clubs and just as straight. To add to that he will be coming into firm greens with more loft.

Like always if a bomber goes on a run of hitting it straight then look to them as the favorite.

by I'm never wrong Wed 12 Jun 2019, 7:31 am

Graeme McDowell posted an image on his Twitter feed of the 33 out of 36 living US open champions. CLICK HERE

by kwinigolfer Wed 12 Jun 2019, 7:40 am

I'm never wrong wrote:Graeme McDowell posted an image on his Twitter feed of the 33 out of 36 living US open champions. CLICK HERE

Very cool, Thanks!
One or two puzzlers there, but what a great pic.

by Roller_Coaster Wed 12 Jun 2019, 7:49 am

I'm never wrong wrote:Graeme McDowell posted an image on his Twitter feed of the 33 out of 36 living US open champions. CLICK HERE

I may be going a bit "stuffy old R&A waistcoat" and sorry if I am, but put a bloody tie on G-Mac - Ernie - Rosie. Otherwise, hell of a pic in a hell of a setting.

If you look over the shoulder of G-Mac, you can see my driving zone. "Clack" went the titanium accelerating through the urethane covered missile. "Fsssssssssssss" through the air. "Clap, clap clap" all around...

- As my ball nearly killed the lounging seals before "plop" into the Pacific she goes.

by Roller_Coaster Wed 12 Jun 2019, 7:58 am

Justin Thomas: Just coming back to form after a few weeks out with wrist problems. Not this week, but one to watch this summer.

Unfortunately, for a top line pro, if this week is too early then with the PGA reschedule "the summer" has but 1 event of note in which to watch on the island of Ireland. An event I don't see him excelling in when he is over the injury.

A Fowler breakthrough is on the cards. Absolutely nailed on (ie I haven't picked him in the Sportform comp).

Has Phil decided on 2 drivers yet? If so, given it's a shorter course, what club does he drop? Fairway wood and long Iron would normally be contenders, but I'd have thought they'd be in play quite a few times in a USGA setup, as would a variety of wedges given the small greens.

by Roller_Coaster Wed 12 Jun 2019, 8:14 am

Sorry for my adding to the inevitable Tiger bubble which may pop sometime Thursday, but I have only just read about this from his romp in 2000:

Tiger's Balls

If ever there was anything liable to cause a snap hook into the sea on 18 round that place, it would be the fact it was my last Pinnacle sat atop the tee.

by wiretapper Wed 12 Jun 2019, 9:10 am

I'm never wrong wrote:Graeme McDowell posted an image on his Twitter feed of the 33 out of 36 living US open champions. CLICK HERE

Love this pic

by McLaren Wed 12 Jun 2019, 9:31 am

GMac looks like a sex pest sleezy waiter in an overpriced Italian restaurant. Shockingly poor taste. I hope he has the sense to turn up in something more appropriate at Portrush.

by Roller_Coaster Wed 12 Jun 2019, 9:36 am

McLaren wrote:GMac looks like a sex pest sleezy waiter in an overpriced Italian restaurant. Shockingly poor taste. I hope he has the sense to turn up in something more appropriate at Portrush.

The back of Rory's Aston Martin?

by JAS Wed 12 Jun 2019, 10:22 am

wiretapper wrote:
I'm never wrong wrote:Graeme McDowell posted an image on his Twitter feed of the 33 out of 36 living US open champions. CLICK HERE

Love this pic

Not a bad piccie at all, anyone take a guess at naming them, can probably get about 2/3rds of them. Who’s missing btw?

Think I’ve got 25...
Back row: Strange, Gmac, W Simpson, dunno, S Simpson, Ogilvy, Kaymer, DJ, Spieth, Woods, Miller, Koepka, Rose, Dunno, Cabrerra, dunno, Goosen, dunno, dunno, Furyk, Kite, Dunno, Rory, Ernie.
Front row: Watson, Trevino, dunno, Player, Nicklaus, Jacklin, Irwin, dunno.

Know I’m going to kick myself at some of the dunno’s

by kwinigolfer Wed 12 Jun 2019, 11:05 am

Think I have them all except one older gent next to Player. Unless Larry Nelson has aged less well than I had thought, but possibly Lou Graham? Though felt he was a bigger bloke than that.
No sign of Floyd, Nelson, Pavin or Fuzzy.
So that screws up McDool's numbers a little.

by JAS Wed 12 Jun 2019, 11:09 am

On the length thing about PB and whether or not it doesn’t really favour the big hitters...it kind of does matter but only if coupled with a higher than average degree of accuracy. I.e. as per any US open, no point in booming it 320 if your next shot is chopping out of cabbage. However, given how small and tricky the greens are, there’s a few holes where it’ll be much better to be coming in with shorter irons. I.e. 2, 9, 10, 11, 13. Dependable Accurate length will also give options on the par 5s and also the ability to go for it on the short par 4 4th.

Not saying a big hitter will win it but for a bigger hitter against a smaller hitter both hitting fairways, it’s a big ask for 4&5 irons to be consistently more accurate than 8/9/w over 4 days. The key point though WILL be hitting fairways.

by JAS Wed 12 Jun 2019, 11:13 am

kwinigolfer wrote:Think I have them all except one older gent next to Player. Unless Larry Nelson has aged less well than I had thought, but possibly Lou Graham? Though felt he was a bigger bloke than that.
No sign of Floyd, Nelson, Pavin or Fuzzy.
So that screws up McDool's numbers a little.

Who are the 2 in between The Goose & Furyk Kwini?

by kwinigolfer Wed 12 Jun 2019, 11:17 am

Lucas Glover & Lee Janzen.

by kwinigolfer Wed 12 Jun 2019, 12:16 pm

McLaren wrote:

Not sure I agree that length won't be a major advantage, if they all start playing 3 Woods or irons off the tee koepka is still longer with those clubs and just as straight. To add to that he will be coming into firm greens with more loft.

Like always if a bomber goes on a run of hitting it straight then look to them as the favorite.

Mac,
Quite right, but at least shorter courses bring everyone into the game, and some pros have built their games around precision rather than length. Not sure that McDowell and Havret were the longest hitters in 2010, or Tom Kite when he won in 1992.

by Shotrock Wed 12 Jun 2019, 3:43 pm

I recall the ever dour Montgomerie complaining about PB one time that he preferred courses where the greens were at the end of the fairways. I sure hope they don't tune up 14 green too much.

by kwinigolfer Wed 12 Jun 2019, 4:06 pm

Shotrock wrote:I recall the ever dour Montgomerie complaining about PB one time that he preferred courses where the greens were at the end of the fairways. I sure hope they don't tune up 14 green too much.

As far as I can see the ever opinionated Montgomerie has only played PB competitively four times in his career:

2 x US Opens, first time 3rd, second in the 40's.
Champo: T3 and 40-something.

Seems a decent record, perhaps he should have played there more often Whistle

#14 was a mess last time, tough enough hole without tricking it up.

by McLaren Wed 12 Jun 2019, 4:08 pm

Kwin

I think the problem for the shorter players is that the top guys are now pretty much just as accurate, and add what Jas said to this and you can see how the likes of Gmac struggle these days.

Shotrock

I by no means agree with Monty but remove the setting from Pebble and it wouldn't stand on the architecture alone to remain a great course given there are actually a few dull holes.

by kwinigolfer Wed 12 Jun 2019, 4:26 pm

McLaren wrote:Kwin

I think the problem for the shorter players is that the top guys are now pretty much just as accurate, and add what Jas said to this and you can see how the likes of Gmac struggle these days.

Shotrock

I by no means agree with Monty but remove the setting from Pebble and it wouldn't stand on the architecture alone to remain a great course given there are actually a few dull holes.

Mac,
In that case, why do US players fare so poorly when playing Ryder Cup set-ups? Do they just mail it in, as Tiger seems to, or does accuracy actually matter?? Rhetorical really, though you may disagree.
(PS: McDowell's having a pretty decent season.)

Certainly two or three very ordinary holes (I don't care for #12, and #13 is pretty bog standard) but most of the rest are just fabulous. You must have played it in poor weather or something . . . . . .

by GPB Wed 12 Jun 2019, 4:57 pm

Yes, I think there are four missing from the photo. Pavin, Fuzzy, Floyd, and Nelson. Shocked to see Michael Campbell, and to a lesser extent, Cabrera.

Most of these players were at the WGHoF inductions, I wonder if Pavin boycotted this week because he thinks he has been snubbed. By the way, Pavin's father was named Jack and his mother was named Barbara.

by kwinigolfer Wed 12 Jun 2019, 5:17 pm

Plenty with more Majors and stronger credentials than Pavin who'll never get a sniff of the WGHoF. (He's beginning to sound like Mark O'Meara . . . . )

GPB, Is that Lou Graham next to Player?

by GPB Wed 12 Jun 2019, 6:11 pm

My best guess is Yes it is. He is 81 yrs old, and looks ever bit of it. All the other old f*rts are accounted for except for Floyd, and he is definitely not there.

by McLaren Wed 12 Jun 2019, 8:37 pm

Kwini

I am not disputing the importance of accuracy but rather questioning whether there is a place for short and accurate in the modern game when the long guys are also pretty accurate.

by sirbenson Wed 12 Jun 2019, 11:38 pm

Love the US Open and love Pebble Beach! Bring it on!

Good choice from Day getting Steve Williams (Don't like him as a person but he is a damn good caddy!)

by Roller_Coaster Thu 13 Jun 2019, 8:44 am

kwinigolfer wrote:
McLaren wrote:Kwin

I think the problem for the shorter players is that the top guys are now pretty much just as accurate, and add what Jas said to this and you can see how the likes of Gmac struggle these days.

Shotrock

I by no means agree with Monty but remove the setting from Pebble and it wouldn't stand on the architecture alone to remain a great course given there are actually a few dull holes.

Mac,
In that case, why do US players fare so poorly when playing Ryder Cup set-ups? Do they just mail it in, as Tiger seems to, or does accuracy actually matter?? Rhetorical really, though you may disagree.
(PS: McDowell's having a pretty decent season.)

Certainly two or three very ordinary holes (I don't care for #12, and #13 is pretty bog standard) but most of the rest are just fabulous. You must have played it in poor weather or something . . . . . .

by JAS Thu 13 Jun 2019, 9:05 am

Roller_Coaster wrote:
kwinigolfer wrote:
McLaren wrote:Kwin

I think the problem for the shorter players is that the top guys are now pretty much just as accurate, and add what Jas said to this and you can see how the likes of Gmac struggle these days.

Shotrock

I by no means agree with Monty but remove the setting from Pebble and it wouldn't stand on the architecture alone to remain a great course given there are actually a few dull holes.

Mac,
In that case, why do US players fare so poorly when playing Ryder Cup set-ups? Do they just mail it in, as Tiger seems to, or does accuracy actually matter?? Rhetorical really, though you may disagree.
(PS: McDowell's having a pretty decent season.)

Certainly two or three very ordinary holes (I don't care for #12, and #13 is pretty bog standard) but most of the rest are just fabulous. You must have played it in poor weather or something . . . . . .

Aye...poor weather outside when on the Xbox indoors!!

by McLaren Thu 13 Jun 2019, 9:58 am

PlayStation actually, but whatever.

by pedro Thu 13 Jun 2019, 11:13 am

McLaren wrote:GMac looks like a sex pest sleezy waiter in an overpriced Italian restaurant. Shockingly poor taste. I hope he has the sense to turn up in something more appropriate at Portrush.

Yeah, he does look a bit dodgy. Could also be somebody working at a cruise ship entertaining old ladies.

Why do they put Jack and Player in huuge grandpa chairs? A bit patronising methinks.

by kwinigolfer Thu 13 Jun 2019, 1:49 pm

It's going to be a cool day at Pebble Beach with morning tee-time temps of about 13C, and not rising much higher than about 16C by tea time.
There must be the possibility of that pesky "marine layer" early, a decent breeze later.

by Shotrock Thu 13 Jun 2019, 2:06 pm

Much prefer this condensed schedule. Looking forward to this weekend!

by Roller_Coaster Thu 13 Jun 2019, 2:53 pm

pedro wrote:
McLaren wrote:GMac looks like a sex pest sleezy waiter in an overpriced Italian restaurant. Shockingly poor taste. I hope he has the sense to turn up in something more appropriate at Portrush.
Yeah, he does look a bit dodgy. Could also be somebody working at a cruise ship entertaining old ladies.

Why do they put Jack and Player in huuge grandpa chairs? A bit patronising methinks.

Well, one of them said "I'm the greatest there's ever been, I want a big, f**k off, comfy chair"

And Jack asked for one too.

by **navyblueshorts** Thu 13 Jun 2019, 3:46 pm

Roller_Coaster wrote:
pedro wrote:
McLaren wrote:GMac looks like a sex pest sleezy waiter in an overpriced Italian restaurant. Shockingly poor taste. I hope he has the sense to turn up in something more appropriate at Portrush.
Yeah, he does look a bit dodgy. Could also be somebody working at a cruise ship entertaining old ladies.

Why do they put Jack and Player in huuge grandpa chairs? A bit patronising methinks.

Well, one of them said "I'm the greatest there's ever been, I want a big, f**k off, comfy chair"

And Jack asked for one too.

by kwinigolfer Thu 13 Jun 2019, 3:54 pm

Opening groups making a meal of this in the first hour, first 30 guys out there are collectively 27 over par.
Come on guys, is it really playing that hard?
And maybe it it.

by wiretapper Thu 13 Jun 2019, 4:24 pm

Rory surprises no-one by bogeying the 1st

by kwinigolfer Thu 13 Jun 2019, 4:30 pm

Easy peasy Piercy . . . . . .
So far.

by **Good Golly I'm Olly** Thu 13 Jun 2019, 4:37 pm

Rahm birdies his first three holes

by McLaren Thu 13 Jun 2019, 4:48 pm

Rory

by kwinigolfer Thu 13 Jun 2019, 5:00 pm

McLaren wrote:Rory

Even par's not bad for those four holes Mac - but you know that, don't you?

by McLaren Thu 13 Jun 2019, 5:01 pm

My app must be behind, had him for +1 through 2.

by kwinigolfer Thu 13 Jun 2019, 5:15 pm

[quote="McLaren"]My app must be behind,

No answer for that Mac.

Surprised at the narrow (-3 to +3) range of scores; scoring pretty good now.

by pedro Thu 13 Jun 2019, 9:09 pm

Mac,
The PGATour and ET apps are lagging.
Only the USOpen app/website is up to date.

by GPB Thu 13 Jun 2019, 9:42 pm

Can't believe the USGA did not pair Michael Thorbjornsen with Thorbjorn Olesen in the first two rounds.

by McLaren Thu 13 Jun 2019, 9:53 pm

My app just updated, nice round from rors.

by kwinigolfer Fri 14 Jun 2019, 1:41 am

Not too early to consider that the 36-hole cut will be top 60 and ties.
Unless the USGA gets an evening bout of the willies and cuts holes in ridiculous positions for Friday, that'll probably be about even par or one over.
Certainly lower than might have been anticipated.

by GPB Fri 14 Jun 2019, 2:40 am

I like this Hovland kid from Norway.

And this tweet from his college makes me smile

https://twitter.com/OSUCowboyGolf/status/1138845688387780608

by kwinigolfer Fri 14 Jun 2019, 2:59 am

GPB wrote:I like this Hovland kid from Norway.

And this tweet from his college makes me smile

https://twitter.com/OSUCowboyGolf/status/1138845688387780608

Hope we get to see him next week.

The usual outliers are there but it's a pretty good leaderboard; happy to see Rose & Franny and Stenson finish well.

by wiretapper Fri 14 Jun 2019, 10:12 am

Some takes from yesterday:

Reasons for the better than average US Open scoring: benign conditions, soft course, wide fairways, poa annua green not behaving like poa annua greens, all of the above?

Have the USGA taken into account all the criticism from previous years when prepping the course this year and as Kwini says above will they go all USGA and tuck the pins away today to bring the averages down? I haven't seen a weather forecast but the chat last night was that the course should continue to dry out and therefore get more difficult as the week progresses. Maybe that means they wont need to intervene but of course that doesn't mean they wont.

Brooks Koepka doesn't seem to care that the course "doesn't suit his style of play" (also will he make it into the new FoxSports trailer Wink

)

Viktor Hovland looks Tour ready

Rory can score well in the first round of majors

Justin Rose's brilliant opening round after such a poor run of form is one of the beautiful things about golf

You would think that Graeme McDowell would be on cloud nine this week but the two interviews I've seen / heard have been tinged with a touch of bitterness

Marine Layer Watch - Rob Lee was all over the marine layer on his Sky commentary with several mentions of Shotrock's favourite US weather type

Paul McGinley's shark attack story Shocked

by pedro Fri 14 Jun 2019, 10:20 am

Went to bed after Koepka was -4 after 6 so I thought I'd wake up to another Koepka lead. But pleasantly surprised to see Rose leading at -6 after watching him struggle on his first few holes.

Yeah, Hovland looks like he's the real deal. And Bjerregaard losing it on 18!!

by Sponsored content