PGA Tour: US Open at Pebble Beach, Again: Notes from the Ballwasher

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1).A terrific win last week in Ontario for Rory McIlroy, a dominating Sunday performance going in to US Open play at Pebble Beach.
But does it really mean anything when considering who might play well this week?
One slightly quirk is that this will be the second of three straight events where the course will measure under 7,000 yards; wonder when that happened last? Length matters, but perhaps not quite so much as usual.

2).US Opens at Pebble Beach are anomalous in that the course is familiar to almost any Pro, whether by watching the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, playing in the Pro-Am or even from past US Opens, when of course June conditions can be vastly different from those in winter.

3).With all that in mind, it surely still doesn't hurt to have some course experience, preferably successful, and this is how I would run down the chances of leading players:

4).Four Californians against the field:
Mickelson, Woods, both of whom obviously have multiple wins here and played well behind McDowell in 2010. Phil is in terrible form recently, and Tiger hasn't played much, but you wouldn't put it past them.
Plus Patrick Cantlay who's playing as well as anyone right now, knows Pebble Beach and has finished T15 or better in every tournament he's finished this season. Only caveat with Cantlay is his driving accuracy, but the pros won't need driver on all but half a dozen holes anyway.
And Xander Schauffele who seemingly comes to play at every big event, has 4 x Top Tens (and 6 x Top 25's) in just 9 Majors played. (Plus a WGC and a runner up at The Players.)

5).Four who have great February records at Pebble Beach:
Spieth: But I can't see him winning again yet; in his current run it seems there's always something . . . . . .
Jason Day: Well, he DOES have Stevie Williams caddying . . . . . very consistent in February.
Snedeker: Played well last week and seems to love poa annua greens and traditional courses.
Dustin: Two wins, two runner ups, and could've, would've, should've in 2010. Last year's Open Championship is the only tournament where he's missed the cut since Erin Hills in 2017, second in both Majors so far this year and can't see any reason not to believe he can go one better this week. He'll be 35 within the fortnight and one Major ain't enough.

6).Five stars who I just can't see bringing it home:
Rory: He'll have to play his best two weeks running, and this set-up will be firm and demanding of his short game, good enough last week but Pebble's greens will be unforgiving.
Koepka: Length won't be a huge advantage here, and I'm guessing that'll cool his jets. He's just too damn good to rule out completely though.
Justin Thomas: Just coming back to form after a few weeks out with wrist problems. Not this week, but one to watch this summer.
Rose: Not much magic recently, not hitting it particularly straight off the tee and missing too many greens.
DeChambeau: No magic for months and is Pebble the right course for his golf-by-numbers theories?

7).Four Europeans:
Chico: Why not? No competitive rounds at Pebble since missing the 2010 cut won't help. No form, and not much play, since The Masters. Is the year-long purple patch fading?
Rahm: Two good tournaments at Pebble Beach but missed his last two cuts. Can't see the "W" but wouldn't be surprised to see him play well.
Garcia: Missed his last SEVEN Major cuts. Nope.
Stenson: Like Molinari, has only played Pebble at the 2010 US Open where he was 29th. Played well in Rory's wake but any magic in his putter seems to be fading.

8).Five Internationals:
Scott: Wants it so badly but needs to putt consistently and he doesn't do that often enough.
Oosthuizen: Raises his game for Majors but is walking wounded this spring.
Leishman: Maybe, just doesn't win often enough to inspire confidence. Top ten and could be anything.
Matsuyama: Never played Pebble competitively, just not quite at his form of a couple of years ago.
Grace: Like Louis, seems to raise his game for Majors but in terrible form.

9).The best of the rest of GB&I:
Casey: Not in great form right now but likes Pebble, runner-up behind Phil in February, and 8th last year. 12 years since his last US Open top ten.
Tommy: Hopefully rested after looking over-golfed. So consistent and not missed a cut since Open De France a year ago - and we know he made up for that.
Shane: Seems to love the place, in great form; each way chance?
McDowell: What a story that would be. By his own admission was putting the best of his life in the summer of 2010, but he's playing well. Another e.w. shot? Or looking past this week??

10).After all that drivel, I still like one of the young Californians, Cantlay & Xander, and DJ, and can't wait to see how Lowry does. Let's just hope the USGA get it right for once.

Well played Gary, he seems like a nice guy as well.

Tbh I thought Koepka would nick it. After his par save on 2 or 3, plus his next 3 birdies, I thought it was just a matter of time before Gary would crumble.

Rose looked dodgy, too many unforced errors, surprised he held on for so long. But everybody seemed to make bogies as well.

Also, I found it interesting that the course completely changed after the easy first 7 holes.

Justin Ray tweeted this

9 out of 10 majors now for American players - first time that has happened since a stretch from 1996-1998.

GPB wrote:Justin Ray tweeted this

9 out of 10 majors now for American players - first time that has happened since a stretch from 1996-1998.

Fortunately the winners of 5 of the 10 served their apprenticeship on the ET's Challenge Tour . . . . .


A good field, top end anyway, for this week's Travelers Championship in Hartford. owgr for the winner expected to be at least 56 pts. Let's hope there are no significant w/d's; I want to follow Fleetwood!
Surprised that Luke Donald is not playing; played well here in the past and nothing daunting about the course length.

Good rationalization

Aside from Koepka (and his 4 Majors) who else served their apprenticeship on the Challenge Tour

Plus, I'm guessing almost all of them have some European lineage.

GPB wrote:Good rationalization

Aside from Koepka (and his 4 Majors) who else served their apprenticeship on the Challenge Tour

Don't say Chico went straight to the ET!! Duh.

Shotrock wrote:Plus, I'm guessing almost all of them have some European lineage.

And I bet some even have danish for breakfast..


And french at nighttime..

GPB wrote:Good rationalization

Aside from Koepka (and his 4 Majors) who else served their apprenticeship on the Challenge Tour

Molinari i'm guessing as one and Koepka's four makes five.

Molinari never played the Challenge Tour.

Chip McDaniel made the cut in the US Open and then flew to Connecticut and 4-spotted (Monday Qualified) into the Travelers.

super_realist wrote:

GPB wrote:Good rationalization

Aside from Koepka (and his 4 Majors) who else served their apprenticeship on the Challenge Tour

Molinari i'm guessing as one and Koepka's four makes five.

Tiger.

Looks like the WTF is going to turn into the KFTF

Web tour has new umbrella sponsor. KORN FERRY

Stenson played the CT

pedro wrote:Stenson played the CT

But he didn't win a major in the last 10 conducted.

Roller_Coaster wrote:

super_realist wrote:

GPB wrote:Good rationalization

Aside from Koepka (and his 4 Majors) who else served their apprenticeship on the Challenge Tour

Molinari i'm guessing as one and Koepka's four makes five.

Tiger.

GPB wrote:

pedro wrote:Stenson played the CT

But he didn't win a major in the last 10 conducted.

I actually had to count fingers there. Cant believe there’s been 12 majors since that Troon duel with Mickelson.