The Trump Presidency

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Galted wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:Just between us few on here... I have a feeling the Queen likes Trump.

Don't ask me to explain why but their body language seemed to be in a sort of comfortable harmony when they stood beside each other in June or whenever it was. And I think he quite likes all of that pomp and ceremony... as someone who likes being the centre of attention would.

He's a cross between a court jester and a village idiot so she would love him. Probably lets him run round the grounds with the corgis.

Yes... and also the fact that he has just a touch of olde worlde charm (probably brutally drummed into him from the NY Military Academy) despite his apparently frightening unpredictability in this day and age.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The lack of interest in a kid with no qualifications getting 3 million from the Ukraine while his Daddy is VP ...

Journalism has died both here and in the US..

Do we all agree that journalism has died both here (England?) and in the USA?

navyblueshorts wrote: Coincidence is not evidence...

Are you referring to Humes objection to induction?

Just seen a pollster have it 56% to 38% to Biden nationally.....

Considering Trump's approval rating is in the 40s with every pollster its pretty inconceivable he is only getting 38% of the vote...

Those scores would pretty much see Red neck states like Alabama going blue and that isn't going to happen...

Maybe a change in methodology in order.....When Reagan smashed Mondale in 84 he won 525 to 13 in electoral votes with Mondale only winning Minnesota and some other little place.

Mondale got 41% of the vote.....

Now I can buy 51-44 or 52-44 with independents taking the rest but 56-38 is rat puke..

Oh, there's definitely something funny about that poll. The same company released a number of poll results the same day which range 55-44 to 56-38, all on very small sample sizes.

I also don't buy Trump getting less than about 43 or 44%, based on his approval rating*. Similarly I don't buy Biden getting less than about 50% based on Trump's disapproval rating. I think your call of 52-44 or thereabouts is likely to be close to the truth. Biden well into the 300s in the EC votes, but probably below 350.

*Quite why someone who has demonstrated such inadequacy for the job of President, especially regarding the Covid response, still has 40% of the electorate on his side is a different question.

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The lack of interest in a kid with no qualifications getting 3 million from the Ukraine while his Daddy is VP is truly deplorable.

If you are happy corruption should be ignored because you don't like Trump it isn't a good look.

Journalism has died both here and in the US..

A lifelong anti racist was painted a racist in the last UK GE and a lifelong racist and misogynist got off scot free.

Amazingly Labour's Anti Semitism problem has disappeared over night.

Who would have guessed that !!!.

Rubbish. Coincidence is not evidence. If HB had won the PowerBall you'd presumably have said that was corrupt as dad was VP? Perhaps, just perhaps, the apparent lack of interest is because they've done some preliminary investigations and it's clear there's nothing to see here? Who knows? Even if HB was given a position due to daddy's position, who's to say that daddy had anything to do w/ it? Perhaps Burisma thought employing HB was a way to curry influence w/ JB? Doesn't mean it's anything other than them p!ssing money away and no suggestion JB has done anything untoward.

As for Labour's alleged anti-Semitism, perhaps you should take note of those of Jewish origin within the party who took offence at what was going on? I'm not sure I'd suggest Corbyn is racist, but his (mis)management of that issue was utterly stupid.

I'll give you the essentially free pass for Johnson, but I would suggest you're simplifying racism. Johnson was a journalist trying to sell copy. Do his actions as, say, London Mayor or PM, match those words?

Coincidence isn't evidence.....Some truth to that..I guess Suspension of disbelief is always a good card to play when you want Biden in and Trump out. I remember when they convicted Wayne Williams of the Atlanta Child murders in the 80s basically because he was seen in the company of many of the kids just before they disappeared..

His supporters and he has quite a few use the coincidence isn't evidence card too. Me ???.....I'm happy he is where he is and I'm sure most of the Atlants parents are.

Don't focus on the polls - we will know soon enough. Focus on what a Joe Biden - Kamala Harris Presidency will look like - especially in terms of its relationship to a post Brexit Britain.

From what I see including looking at Conservative sites in the US is that Joe Biden is going to win fairly easily and I see little point in looking at the minutiae of the variable polls which show unbridgeable gaps which are much larger than in 2016.  

The main thing is that Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot with his behavior and rhetoric.   All Joe Biden has to do is hide in his basement and Donald Trump will keep on self-destructing in terms of how he seems to pick fights with anyone and everyone - the latest being Dr Fauci.  

Donald Trump was supposed to turn things around in the presidential debates but the best that could be said of that was that it was equal and maybe slightly in Biden's favor - there was no bounce for Trump.  Biden was fine and not senile like some had painted him to be.  When Biden said he was not going to answer the question about the Supreme Court Packing because he wanted the media and the voters to continue to focus on Trump and not on him he was precisely right and that is clearly his strategy.

So rather than looking at the minutiae of the polls, isn't it time to consider what a Joe Biden - Kamala Harris Presidency will look like, or is this only a Donald Trump Out thread?

Trussman I thought you were an anything is better than Trump sort of person - but maybe you are not too impressed with Joe Biden either?

IBD/TIPP
Biden..49 -1
Trump 46 +4

Survey Monkey
Biden..52
Trump 46

GCB
Biden..52 -2
Trump 43 +1

Rasmussen
Biden..49 -1
Trump 46 +1

Trump zigzagging around the marginals while Biden stays home seems to be closing the gap...

Problem is nearly a quarter of the US has voted.

No name Bertie wrote: I see little point in looking at the minutiae of the variable polls which show unbridgeable gaps which are much larger than in 2016.  

They don't show this at all!

The whole Biden/ senile thing. He is old, very old, but I do wonder if some of the speculation has been driven by the stutter he has and has worked hard to overcome. For all of the concern over the potential for the stage managed meeting with the boy with the stutter that has come out Biden's words rang true.

Anyone else always lie down to tuck in their shirt? Or is it just me?

I'm just hoping Cohen has got the FULL thing on tape and releases it so there can be no backtracking or justification from Rudy

No name Bertie wrote:Trussman I thought you were an anything is better than Trump sort of person - but maybe you are not too impressed with Joe Biden either?

Not bothered who wins....I've always backed the Democrat candidate generally but Biden is not a 100% and Trump is a moron. I don't like Harris either and she will be President next year.

Will miss Trump's entertainment value though.

Trafalgar...Michigan polling.

Trump 47
Biden 45

Probably why Biden went there last week.

Wisconsin...NC...Penn...Iowa is enough for Biden but Pennsylvania shares a similar demographic to the motor state..

Looks an outlier though.

Big debate tonight can Biden keep his concentration...Can Trump behave ???

Yep, very important debate tonight. Trump is riding a small wave of momentum and a strong performance tonight can keep that going up until polling day...or a bad showing can completely eradicate the gains he's made.

To be honest I think he's mostly flailing around so he can claim it was rigged. He really doesn't have much to fight with post covid

Punchy debate but gentlemanly enough....Trump more aggressive but no real penetration..Biden lucid and well rehearsed.

Scored it a draw so a win for Biden.

Highlight was watching Melania have to walk past Biden's podium and seeing Biden's eyes glued to her backside.

Randy old dog....

Trump was better than he was in the first debate, but that's really not saying much. I'll credit him for being more disciplined and than I thought he was capable of being. But as Jon Sopel said before the debate, Trump needed a big win, while Biden would have been content with a goalless draw, and a goalless draw is what we got, I'd say.

Fox News poll.....Trump 74 Biden 24
CNN.....................Biden 53 Trump 39

Last time Trump and Biden were both in the 60s..

Not much change but Trump did up his game...though it was hard not to.

50 million already voted....Half the Electorate.

Trump needs a miracle and last night was a puddle when he needed a river.

It doesn't look like Trump's going to get much joy from this Hunter Biden story either.

The headline?

'Hunter Biden’s Ex-Business Partner Alleges Father Knew About Venture'

The substance?

'The venture—set up in 2017 after Mr. Biden left the vice presidency and before his presidential campaign—never received proposed funds from the Chinese company or completed any deals, according to people familiar with the matter. Corporate records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal show no role for Joe Biden.'

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hunter-bidens-ex-business-partner-alleges-father-knew-about-venture-11603421247

Wall Street journal is fiercely anti Trump.....As is 90% of the media.

You don't pay a kid with no qualifications millions unless its cash for access....It's corrupt would Trump do it. Of course he would.

But corruption needs to be called when we see it...

Like with Hillary's emails the mainstream media has buried the story. Not a good thing when the channels and print media are in the tank. We see it over here with the awful Peston and Kuensberg and there love of Boris.

Back to last night the respected Frank Luntz of CNBC called it right.....Slight win for Trump but the Election is over...

Not enough voters left.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:You don't pay a kid with no qualifications millions unless its cash for access... corruption needs to be called when we see it...

I'm just going to post this again:

'The venture—set up in 2017 after Mr. Biden left the vice presidency and before his presidential campaign—never received proposed funds from the Chinese company or completed any deals, according to people familiar with the matter. Corporate records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal show no role for Joe Biden.'

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Like with Hillary's emails the mainstream media has buried the story.

I'm not sure how running a story equates to burying it, but there we are!

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:You don't pay a kid with no qualifications millions unless its cash for access... corruption needs to be called when we see it...

I'm just going to post this again:

'The venture—set up in 2017 after Mr. Biden left the vice presidency and before his presidential campaign—never received proposed funds from the Chinese company or completed any deals, according to people familiar with the matter. Corporate records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal show no role for Joe Biden.'

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Like with Hillary's emails the mainstream media has buried the story.

I'm not sure how running a story equates to burying it, but there we are!

They aren't running the story...They are spinning it like a defence lawyer with a guilty client because its getting bigger on Social media.

They have literally run the story.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:They have literally run the story.

Sshhhhh don't let these pesky facts get in the way. They didn't run it according to Truss' biases, so they didn't run it.

"The big guy wants 10%...."The press has been uninterested in running the story"..Very true.

Look the Wall Street Journal is backing Biden......It has also has a history of being asked to apologise to China all the way to the 'Sick man of Asia story' of last year.

The optics of this story are terrible why are you holding water for Biden ?? He is going to win anyway.

Hunter Biden stinks and everyone knows it...Marco Rubio would win a landslide against Biden but like Corbyn here..People don't like the alternative.

Pr4wn wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:They have literally run the story.

Sshhhhh don't let these pesky facts get in the way. They didn't run it according to Truss' biases, so they didn't run it.

Yawn..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The optics of this story are terrible why are you holding water for Biden ?? He is going to win anyway.

I'm just saying that there seems to be very little to the story. No funds, no deal, no role for Biden. Thus the optics are neither here nor there. I can give you the quote again if you want!

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Fox News poll.....Trump 74 Biden 24
CNN.....................Biden 53 Trump 39

Last time Trump and Biden were both in the 60s..

Not much change but Trump did up his game...though it was hard not to.

50 million already voted....Half the Electorate.

Trump needs a miracle and last night was a puddle when he needed a river.

The ones who have already voted are the ones who made their minds up long ago - either Trump's base or the anti-Trump section. The swing voters, who will decide the election, by and large have not yet voted.

Democrat strategists still believe a Republican surge of turnout between now and election day will swing the election in Trump's favour...hence why this race is too close to call.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Highlight was watching Melania have to walk past Biden's podium and seeing Biden's eyes glued to her backside.

Randy old dog....

Give over, Melania's way too old for Uncle Joe.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The optics of this story are terrible why are you holding water for Biden ?? He is going to win anyway.

I'm just saying that there seems to be very little to the story. No funds, no deal, no role for Biden. Thus the optics are neither here nor there. I can give you the quote again if you want!

We can disagree.....No problem.

But what's going to cause a 'Republican surge of turnout'? Biden's going to do the bare minimum in terms of appearances now to avoid any opportunities for a gaffe, and Trump's rallying doesn't seem likely to have any influence over the remaining swing voters - nor is his message likely to change. (Are his rallies aimed at anyone but the converted?)

That said, if we knew about them in advance, they wouldn't be called October surprises.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But what's going to cause a 'Republican surge of turnout'? Biden's going to do the bare minimum in terms of appearances now to avoid any opportunities for a gaffe, and Trump's rallying doesn't seem likely to have any influence over the remaining swing voters - nor is his message likely to change. (Are his rallies aimed at anyone but the converted?)

That said, if we knew about them in advance, they wouldn't be called October surprises.

Presumably the same thing that's causing the current uptick for Trump in the polling in most of the 'key' and 'soft blue' states over the past 2-3 weeks. If Trump keeps that momentum going, as he did in 2016, then he's in the White House again. But if it tapers off then Biden wins.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But what's going to cause a 'Republican surge of turnout'? Biden's going to do the bare minimum in terms of appearances now to avoid any opportunities for a gaffe, and Trump's rallying doesn't seem likely to have any influence over the remaining swing voters - nor is his message likely to change. (Are his rallies aimed at anyone but the converted?)

That said, if we knew about them in advance, they wouldn't be called October surprises.

Presumably the same thing that's causing the current uptick for Trump in the polling in most of the 'key' and 'soft blue' states over the past 2-3 weeks. If Trump keeps that momentum going, as he did in 2016, then he's in the White House again. But if it tapers off then Biden wins.

A surge of republican turnout isn't going to win Trump this election.....Clinton won the populate vote and missed out on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania narrowly last time despite People staying home.....We know already that Blacks are voting in high numbers this time and we know that half the electorate has already voted most at a time when Biden was ahead in the polls by big numbers. The lead has narrowed for sure but the polls still have Biden narrowly in front....not enough voters left.

It's over....Trump's only chance was to quell the Democrat vote....Not happened......Do think he takes Ohio, Florida and Georgia though.

So no landslide.

An election analyst on CNN - sorry but I don't know his name - had three states as his 'wild cards': Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. He said that Trump still has a few routes to 270 electoral college votes, but if Biden wins any of the three wild-card states, it can't be done.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:An election analyst on CNN - sorry but I don't know his name - had three states as his 'wild cards': Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. He said that Trump still has a few routes to 270 electoral college votes, but if Biden wins any of the three wild-card states, it can't be done.

Broadly speaking, you have six key states - Arizona, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina. If Trump pulls out five, including Iowa and Florida, he can just about get to 270, but it would require taking a couple of 'soft blue' states. Ideally from his perspective, he needs all six and then just one 'soft blue' state. So I think he could lose one of either Arizona or North Carolina and still triumph, but we'd be getting into snookers required.

Of those six, I would be fairly confident at this point of Trump taking Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina. Florida's in toss-a-coin territory (as it often is). Arizona is, from Trump's point of view, quite stubbornly blue, though yesterday a poll gave him a 48-47 lead in that state.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:But what's going to cause a 'Republican surge of turnout'? Biden's going to do the bare minimum in terms of appearances now to avoid any opportunities for a gaffe, and Trump's rallying doesn't seem likely to have any influence over the remaining swing voters - nor is his message likely to change. (Are his rallies aimed at anyone but the converted?)

That said, if we knew about them in advance, they wouldn't be called October surprises.

Presumably the same thing that's causing the current uptick for Trump in the polling in most of the 'key' and 'soft blue' states over the past 2-3 weeks. If Trump keeps that momentum going, as he did in 2016, then he's in the White House again. But if it tapers off then Biden wins.

A surge of republican turnout isn't going to win Trump this election.....Clinton won the populate vote and missed out on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania narrowly last time despite People staying home.....We know already that Blacks are voting in high numbers this time and we know that half the electorate has already voted most at a time when Biden was ahead in the polls by big numbers.  The lead has narrowed for sure but the polls still have Biden narrowly in front....not enough voters left.

It's over....Trump's only chance was to quell the Democrat vote....Not happened......Do think he takes Ohio, Florida and Georgia though.

So no landslide.

Well I think we all agree that Biden will win the popular vote. Black folks may be voting in high numbers this time, but it may also be important to note that Trump is actually polling better with this grouping (and Hispanics) than in 2016. I mean he's still getting hammered, but less so. Albeit, this could be offset by a possible reduction in support from white voters.

"While older Black voters look as if they’ll vote for Biden by margins similar to Clinton’s in 2016, Trump’s support among young Black voters (18 to 44) has jumped from around 10 percent in 2016 to 21 percent in UCLA Nationscape’s polling. Black voters remain an overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning constituency, but a notable reduction in their support could still be a problem for Biden."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:An election analyst on CNN - sorry but I don't know his name - had three states as his 'wild cards': Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. He said that Trump still has a few routes to 270 electoral college votes, but if Biden wins any of the three wild-card states, it can't be done.

He won't win NC a lot more young voters have come onto the ballot since 2016..

But Michigan has more popular votes than NC and he is still just about in play there.

Have a good weekend.

No name Bertie wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The lack of interest in a kid with no qualifications getting 3 million from the Ukraine while his Daddy is VP ...

Journalism has died both here and in the US..  

Do we all agree that journalism has died both here (England?) and in the USA?

No, we don't.

No name Bertie wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote: Coincidence is not evidence...

Are you referring to Humes objection to induction?

Nope. Just what it says. The fact that something is coincident w/ something else doesn't make the latter evidence of the former, or vice versa. Hence the contemporary use of the word coincidence.

Pr4wn wrote:Anyone else always lie down to tuck in their shirt? Or is it just me?

Clearly not just you. Rudy does it too . That should make you feel some comfort...you're not alone.

I actually feel quite sorry for America. Even if Biden wins, the partisan hatred shows no sign of abating. Even worse, we aren't far from the same position in the UK.

A kid with no qualifications acquiring...

3.5m from a Russian oligarch's wife.

1.5m for work on the board of Burisma..

5m in Consulting fees from a Company tied to the Chinese Govt..

....and all without any help from his Dad who was the Vice President at the time..

Talented kid for sure.

Got to love these two post Michigan s ebate polls..

Gravis
Biden 55
Trump 42

Trafalgar
Trump 48
Biden 46

navyblueshorts wrote:I actually feel quite sorry for America. Even if Biden wins, the partisan hatred shows no sign of abating. Even worse, we aren't far from the same position in the UK.

Biden isn't winning because Trump is racist...He is winning because Covid has screwed up Trump's re-election with a prior thriving Economy turning pear shaped.

America is a group of States basically joined together at Election time it's not like the UK...Every State has its own laws and process...If standard of living is decent People re-elect the incumbent twas always so...

Perhaps Taft, Adams and Chester Arthur being the three exceptions...They had other problems though...Arthur's lack of corruption upset the New York faction...Taft had Roosevelt splitting his vote and Adams lost to the John Wayne of his day in the great Andy J..

The only reason Trump still has a sniff is because he isn't a politician...US is sick of those..

Always been partisan problems and always will be because of Roe v Wade and the fact we still have generations still around from the Civil rights hostilities of the Johnson era passing on their toxic spew..

Covid will make things worse because these things do get worse in hard times when People look for someone to blame.

But Black Americans should remember that White v Black wealth widened under Obama and Clinton put more blacks away than any other President in modern history and it was Biden's bill.

But only Trump is racist apparently....Though he is racist.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:A kid with no qualifications acquiring...

3.5m from a Russian oligarch's wife.

1.5m for work on the board of Burisma..

5m in Consulting fees from a Company tied to the Chinese Govt..

....and all without any help from his Dad who was the Vice President at the time..

Talented kid for sure.

Got to love these two post Michigan s ebate polls..

Gravis
Biden 55
Trump 42

Trafalgar
Trump 48
Biden 46

Prove it.

Moving on.......

Spoke with a Conservative Councillor years ago at a dinner party and he said he thought Canvassing was a waste of time and it didn't change a vote..

Trump is finding out that zigzagging the Country while the other guy stays in his basement for three months is pretty futile too...Rasmussen, Trafalgar have him even-ish while eight other pollsters see him losing bad..

Fact is he needs close to double digit leads now to offset early voting and eight days isn't enough to find them.

Nice of Kamala Harris husband to confirm to us what we already know that she is going to be President...

Florida. Ohio. Georgia apart looks like an early night a week next Tuesday...No need for the Army.

Any thoughts on the 60 minutes meltdown?

Watched it all....No meltdown just pointed out that she had enough material and that she gave him a rougher ride than Biden..

Must have been an oversight when they forgot to bring up the Ukraine when interviewing Joe.

Trump did the right thing...He released the whole interview before 60 minutes so People could see his supposed meltdown.

Try not to watch CNN.

You don't want to prove it?

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Watched it all....No meltdown just pointed out that she had enough material and that she gave him a rougher ride than Biden..

Must have been an oversight when they forgot to bring up the Ukraine when interviewing Joe.

Trump did the right thing...He released the whole interview before 60 minutes so People could see his supposed meltdown.

Try not to watch CNN.

I believe She didnt interview Biden though