2019 General Election

First topic message reminder :

The key questions for me:

How many Leave voters still want Brexit;

Of those who do, how many put Brexit before all else;

What damage the Brexit party will do the the Conservatives' hopes of taking Labour leave seats.

You already know, because you read the post with your username in it.

Re read it now to make sure I hadn't missed it but I cant see you've confirmed or answered. I'm talking specific policies which will hit the working man. The only think I can find which seems to tie to that is balanced as I said. Is it that point you were thinking or something else?

Looking at the polls I'd say it is clear to see what has happened. In the early days of the campaign the Tories gorged on Brexit voters drawing them over to them and they built up a lead. In the last week or so Labour have began picking up Lib Dem votes. Tories surge coincided with Brexit's dip and Labour surge coincided with Lib Dem's dip.

How can a surge in Tory votes coincide with a slide in Brexit?

Think he means the Brexit Company Ltd. rather than the concept of Brexit.

super_realist wrote:How can a surge in Tory votes coincide with a slide in Brexit?

Brexit Party voters. They clearly jumped ship when Farage put up the white flag at this election.

Afro wrote:Labour shooting themselves in the foot last night.

A debate involving the demographic that they are relying on to get close i.e. under 30s and they choose Angela Rayner as their representative. I have no idea what she believes in because I can't see past the fact she just shouts over everyone else and is just constantly rude, and therefore I don't take in what she is actually trying to say.

Someone like Jess Phillips would have been a good choice. Really ballsy, but also not over the top in her shouting down of others

She ticks most of the identity politics checklist.

Labour have been myopic navel gazers while the far right uses data to take over the world.

Unreal.

Just remember everyone,if you are against brexit (why wouldn't you be?) Make sure you vote tactically.

beninho wrote:Just remember everyone,if you are against brexit (why wouldn't you be?) Make sure you vote tactically.

Why not let people vote how they want?

I am voting tactically, but Brexit is going to happen so that's not even an issue in voting for me. Do you seriously think Brexit has even the slightest chance of being stopped? Be realistic.

I think a hung parliament could lead to a second referendum. And this is the only way the vrexit shtshow can end.

Latest and last YouGov MRP has it at:

CON: 339 (-20) LAB: 231 (+20) SNP: 41 (-2) LDEM: 15 (+2)

Tory majority of 28.

A second referendum? Well there's a bit of a problem there isn't there?
Corbyn claims his party will offer a second referendum, however he also claims he'll sort a new Brexit deal in 100 days. Not very clear on their direction are they? He's also been to frightened to admit where he stands on it.

He's doing his best job of not getting elected don't you think?

Brexit or a Labour government? I'll take my chances with the former thanks.

super_realist wrote:A second referendum? Well there's a bit of a problem there isn't there?
Corbyn claims his party will offer a second referendum, however he also claims he'll sort a new Brexit deal in 100 days. Not very clear on their direction are they? He's also been to frightened to admit where he stands on it.

He's doing his best job of not getting elected don't you think?

Mate, he's awful. I'd still rather him then Johnson and his lot.

latest projections have a cut down majority of 28. NHS starting to hammer home on this government now theres a real example rather than threats of trade deals with the US.

Suspect Boris is getting a bit twitchy

GSC wrote:latest projections have a cut down majority of 28. NHS starting to hammer home on this government now theres a real example rather than threats of trade deals with the US.

Suspect Boris is getting a bit twitchy

It's not really a real example though. It's something blown out of proportion. Boy waits in hospital and waits by lying on the ground. Corbyn sitting on a train floor didn't exactly help him win the election last time did it?

beninho wrote:

super_realist wrote:A second referendum? Well there's a bit of a problem there isn't there?
Corbyn claims his party will offer a second referendum, however he also claims he'll sort a new Brexit deal in 100 days. Not very clear on their direction are they? He's also been to frightened to admit where he stands on it.

He's doing his best job of not getting elected don't you think?

Mate, he's awful. I'd still rather him then Johnson and his lot.

It's a terrible choice we're faced with, but I can't see one positive thing about Corbyn being in charge. Doesn't mean I want to settle for Johnson either. I don't think there have ever been two more unpopular leaders.

I would take a hung parliament and both resigning!

Still think cons will scrape it. Then we are in for god knows what.

beninho wrote:I would take a hung parliament and both resigning!

Still think cons will scrape it. Then we are in for god knows what.

It's hard to believe that we laughed at US politics for so long and then now have a system and two parties who are laughingstocks.

No one believes the claims of either of these two, none of them will answer a question, none of them have any solutions. It's all just bluster.

The best I can hope for is that the Lib Dems knock the disgusting SNP back a few seats. Other than that, there's nothing to look forward to in this election other than it being over.

GSC wrote:latest projections have a cut down majority of 28. NHS starting to hammer home on this government now theres a real example rather than threats of trade deals with the US.

Suspect Boris is getting a bit twitchy

Most interesting about the MRP poll is 85 seats currently have a difference of 5% or fewer between the first-placed and second-placed parties. 25 of these are Tory leads and 31 are Labour leads. A late swing to either of these parties could see either a hung parliament or a bigger Tory majority.

beninho wrote:Just remember everyone,if you are against brexit (why wouldn't you be?) Make sure you vote tactically.

There are very few seats where tactical voting will be appropriate.

Here's the thing - and why the left is tactically useless. The Brexit Party has literally been set up to split the working class vote in the North and hand the Tories a few seats following UKIP's collapse (as well as to make a bit money, possibly...). What does the 'left' do? In previous years the Greens have decided to elect someone who suggested the Queen should get a council house as leader, the nationalists and Labour cannot agree on anything, and the Lib Dems have voted in Head Girl who went straight in to PR as leader who's going to make a name for herself by winning back a few middle class voters in the South of England and further splitting the vote.

The idea of 'tactics' is completely ridiculous. There can be basically no tactics when the vast majority of seats are two way fights in a FPTP voting system.

Still, vote tactically, fine - a hung parliament would be the best option for that, I would imagine, and the hopes that Labour get rid of Corbyn and, ideally, Momentum members (the much more worrying and pervasive issue that could take a decade or more to fix, but in my view it looks terminal for Labour and there's likely to be little to no recovery from this point as an electoral force capable of a majority). The more likely option seems to be that Brexit is about the happen as Labour circles the drain and the 'progressive' vote is too fractured, while Nigel's hedge fund buddies and pollsters do the figures and crunch the numbers to deliver Boris the majority and therefore Brexit, as well as what looks like 'special powers' within the Tory manifesto which would appear to allow them to circumvent the actual justice system. You'd hope there are still far too many moderate conservatives in their party to allow that to happen without bringing down the government, but a big enough majority affords them this ability.

A useful article on polling, data, and - I suppose, as a consequence - 'tactical' voting: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

A useful article on polling, data, and - I suppose, as a consequence - 'tactical' voting: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:latest projections have a cut down majority of 28. NHS starting to hammer home on this government now theres a real example rather than threats of trade deals with the US.

Suspect Boris is getting a bit twitchy

Most interesting about the MRP poll is 85 seats currently have a difference of 5% or fewer between the first-placed and second-placed parties. 25 of these are Tory leads and 31 are Labour leads. A late swing to either of these parties could see either a hung parliament or a bigger Tory majority.

Interesting stuff.

super_realist wrote:A second referendum? Well there's a bit of a problem there isn't there?
Corbyn claims his party will offer a second referendum, however he also claims he'll sort a new Brexit deal in 100 days. Not very clear on their direction are they? He's also been to frightened to admit where he stands on it.

He's doing his best job of not getting elected don't you think?

What he actually said was that he was going to sort out a new deal. And that deal was going to be part of the referendum. Along with stay.

And he has said that he's going to be neutral. So that he gets both sides and listens to both sides, rather than just one side.

super_realist wrote:

GSC wrote:latest projections have a cut down majority of 28. NHS starting to hammer home on this government now theres a real example rather than threats of trade deals with the US.

Suspect Boris is getting a bit twitchy

It's not really a real example though. It's something blown out of proportion. Boy waits in hospital and waits by lying on the ground. Corbyn sitting on a train floor didn't exactly help him win the election last time did it?

I think it's more about how he handled the reporter and the phone thing, than the actual subject itself.

super_realist wrote:

beninho wrote:I would take a hung parliament and both resigning!

Still think cons will scrape it. Then we are in for god knows what.

It's hard to believe that we laughed at US politics for so long and then now have a system and two parties who are laughingstocks.

No one believes the claims of either of these two, none of them will answer a question, none of them have any solutions. It's all just bluster.

The best I can hope for is that the Lib Dems knock the disgusting SNP back a few seats.  Other than that, there's nothing to look forward to in this election other than it being over.

The second paragraph is so true. The one thing this election has proven without a doubt, us just how bad our system, politicians and parties are. In a time when we need real leadership, real direction. We've got this. It almost makes you want to give up on it all. Still at the rate we're going, another election in two years to cheer us up

Luke wrote:

super_realist wrote:A second referendum? Well there's a bit of a problem there isn't there?
Corbyn claims his party will offer a second referendum, however he also claims he'll sort a new Brexit deal in 100 days. Not very clear on their direction are they? He's also been to frightened to admit where he stands on it.

He's doing his best job of not getting elected don't you think?

What he actually said was that he was going to sort out a new deal. And that deal was going to be part of the referendum. Along with stay.

And he has said that he's going to be neutral. So that he gets both sides and listens to both sides, rather than just one side.

…...and appeals to neither.

super_realist wrote:

Luke wrote:

super_realist wrote:A second referendum? Well there's a bit of a problem there isn't there?
Corbyn claims his party will offer a second referendum, however he also claims he'll sort a new Brexit deal in 100 days. Not very clear on their direction are they? He's also been to frightened to admit where he stands on it.

He's doing his best job of not getting elected don't you think?

What he actually said was that he was going to sort out a new deal. And that deal was going to be part of the referendum. Along with stay.

And he has said that he's going to be neutral. So that he gets both sides and listens to both sides, rather than just one side.

…...and appeals to neither.

Certainly appeals to the Remain camp more. Johnsons deal is absolute Poopie and he’s also offering a way out via a second referendum. I would certainly prefer another referendum as opposed to out and out revoking that the Lib Dems promise if they get a majority.

Looks like a hung parliament to me. Johnsons lead is too slim to call a majority just yet, and May had a similar lead going into 2017. We’ll only know for sure when the exit poll is called.

super_realist wrote:

Luke wrote:

super_realist wrote:A second referendum? Well there's a bit of a problem there isn't there?
Corbyn claims his party will offer a second referendum, however he also claims he'll sort a new Brexit deal in 100 days. Not very clear on their direction are they? He's also been to frightened to admit where he stands on it.

He's doing his best job of not getting elected don't you think?

What he actually said was that he was going to sort out a new deal. And that deal was going to be part of the referendum. Along with stay.

And he has said that he's going to be neutral. So that he gets both sides and listens to both sides, rather than just one side.

…...and appeals to neither.

True. Though the media do have it in for him, over a thousand articles about anti semitism. Just over hundred on islamphobia. There's alot of double standards.
But your right, he doesn't help him self in anyway.

Luke wrote:

super_realist wrote:

Luke wrote:

super_realist wrote:A second referendum? Well there's a bit of a problem there isn't there?
Corbyn claims his party will offer a second referendum, however he also claims he'll sort a new Brexit deal in 100 days. Not very clear on their direction are they? He's also been to frightened to admit where he stands on it.

He's doing his best job of not getting elected don't you think?

What he actually said was that he was going to sort out a new deal. And that deal was going to be part of the referendum. Along with stay.

And he has said that he's going to be neutral. So that he gets both sides and listens to both sides, rather than just one side.

…...and appeals to neither.

True. Though the media do have it in for him, over a thousand articles about anti semitism. Just over hundred on islamphobia. There's alot of double standards.
But your right, he doesn't help him self in anyway.

Well, Corbyn gives them the ammunition to write about him. You can't blame the media for scoring a tap in goal. It's not just them he's unpopular with, it's the general public. He has the worst approval ratings of any leader in over 30 years. I can't imagine Boris is rated much higher, but Corbyn is demonstrably a terrible leader, a hypocrite, out of touch and completely unwilling to ever change his position on anything. The sooner he's gone the better.

Atleast Corbyn is willing to put his ideas out to face scrutiny, meanwhile Johnsons hiding in a large fridge to avoid talking to Good Morning Britain.

Honestly, neither are good choices, but if you think Johnsons better than Corbyn you deserve whats coming to you.

They aren't ideas, they are pipe dreams. It's easy to put out outrageous "vote bait" manifestos. However the public, rightly aren't buying either sides ridiculous ideas.

This is probably the first election when the public have finally become sceptical and taken off their usual blue or red tinted glasses.

I've never claimed Johnson is better than Corbyn, we're talking about how inept Corbyn is,  so doesn't mean you support Johnson by default.

beninho wrote:I would take a hung parliament and both resigning!

Still think cons will scrape it. Then we are in for god knows what.

So would I, but the problem with that is there is no evidence that parliament (or more accurately the leaders) could actually work in a cross party way to improve things. We have had 30 months of a minority government behaving as if they had a big majority, and an opposition leadership completely unwilling to accept any compromise.

Looks like a comfortable Tory majority going by the polls to me, at this point in 2017 the lead was down to a few points and pointing towards a hung parliament.

If you believe Corbyn is better than anyone you deserve what's coming to you.

Soul Requiem wrote:
If you believe Corbyn is better than anyone you deserve what's coming to you.

And whats that then?

Samo wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:
If you believe Corbyn is better than anyone you deserve what's coming to you.

And whats that then?

Bugger all.

Thought as much.

Samo wrote:Thought as much.

As in you'll end up with less for no actual benefit unless we're to believe in miracles.

super_realist wrote:

Luke wrote:

super_realist wrote:

Luke wrote:

super_realist wrote:A second referendum? Well there's a bit of a problem there isn't there?
Corbyn claims his party will offer a second referendum, however he also claims he'll sort a new Brexit deal in 100 days. Not very clear on their direction are they? He's also been to frightened to admit where he stands on it.

He's doing his best job of not getting elected don't you think?

What he actually said was that he was going to sort out a new deal. And that deal was going to be part of the referendum. Along with stay.

And he has said that he's going to be neutral. So that he gets both sides and listens to both sides, rather than just one side.

…...and appeals to neither.

True. Though the media do have it in for him, over a thousand articles about anti semitism. Just over hundred on islamphobia. There's alot of double standards.
But your right, he doesn't help him self in anyway.

Well, Corbyn gives them the ammunition to write about him. You can't blame the media for scoring a tap in goal. It's not just them he's unpopular with, it's the general public. He has the worst approval ratings of any leader in over 30 years. I can't imagine Boris is rated much higher, but Corbyn is demonstrably a terrible leader, a hypocrite, out of touch and completely unwilling to ever change his position on anything. The sooner he's gone the better.

So does Johnson. From his islamphobia newspaper articles, to his lies about when London mayor. Isnt there still someone in a Saudi jail because of him. The whole Northern Ireland border and goods. His 50,000 new nurses, when he meant retaining 20,000. Etc etc
The rest of what you say.could quite as easily be applied to Boris as well,

Let's face it. We would be very hard pressed to find two inept leaders for a ge ever again.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:Thought as much.

As in you'll end up with less for no actual benefit unless we're to believe in miracles.

Ok mate.

Soul Requiem wrote:Looks like a comfortable Tory majority going by the polls to me, at this point in 2017 the lead was down to a few points and pointing towards a hung parliament.

If you believe Corbyn is better than anyone you deserve what's coming to you.

According to the polls.
.the 2010 election was going to be a conservative majority.
2015, hung parliament.
2016, we were going to remain in the EU
2017, conservatives were going to have a majority.

I really don't believe anything the polls say.
They may be right, but they may just as easily be wrong.

Luke wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:Looks like a comfortable Tory majority going by the polls to me, at this point in 2017 the lead was down to a few points and pointing towards a hung parliament.

If you believe Corbyn is better than anyone you deserve what's coming to you.

According to the polls.
.the 2010 election was going to be a conservative majority.
2015, hung parliament.
2016, we were going to remain in the EU
2017, conservatives were going to have a majority.

I really don't believe anything the polls say.
They may be right, but they may just as easily be wrong.

Not sure you're reading the polls right there

2010 was always headed towards a hung parliament because of the strength of the Lib Dems at the time, polling was very accurate.
2015 is an odd one it has to be said
The Referendum polls had such a margin of error because of undecided voters and as a binary question can't be compared to a GE.
2017 the final polls did have it as a hung parliament

Soul Requiem wrote:

Luke wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:Looks like a comfortable Tory majority going by the polls to me, at this point in 2017 the lead was down to a few points and pointing towards a hung parliament.

If you believe Corbyn is better than anyone you deserve what's coming to you.

According to the polls.
.the 2010 election was going to be a conservative majority.
2015, hung parliament.
2016, we were going to remain in the EU
2017, conservatives were going to have a majority.

I really don't believe anything the polls say.
They may be right, but they may just as easily be wrong.

Not sure you're reading the polls right there

2010 was always headed towards a hung parliament because of the strength of the Lib Dems at the time, polling was very accurate.
2015 is an odd one it has to be said
The Referendum polls had such a margin of error because of undecided voters and as a binary question can't be compared to a GE.
2017 the final polls did have it as a hung parliament

But the point still remains that it got them wrong as often as got it right. It will be an interesting night tomorrow.
But let's be honest, whoever wins we are going to be shafted, and there lies will come home to roost.

‘Got them wrong as often as it got them right’ - yes, but only within the usual margin of error. We’re not going to find on Friday morning that Labour have got the most seats, or the Lib Dems have scored 20% of the votes.

There’s three options of what the result is going to be:

1) A hung parliament with the Tories having a lot more seats than Labour. (I think the effect of tactical voting is overstated, but this could happen if the polling has underestimated Labour’s support for a second consecutive GE or if there’s a late Labour surge. The latter appears unlikely, admittedly)
2) A Tory majority. (Most likely option - Tories get between 326 and 355 seats. Polling seems to favour the middle to upper end of this scale)
3) A Tory landslide. (Not much talk about this, but it could happen. Everyone seems to be focusing on a polling error one way equalling a hung parliament. True, but if it goes the other way the Tories could be in for 1997 numbers)

Basically Corbyn is getting his jotters. Shut the door on your way out Steptoe.

Duty281 wrote:‘Got them wrong as often as it got them right’ - yes, but only within the usual margin of error. We’re not going to find on Friday morning that Labour have got the most seats, or the Lib Dems have scored 20% of the votes.

There’s three options of what the result is going to be:

1) A hung parliament with the Tories having a lot more seats than Labour. (I think the effect of tactical voting is overstated, but this could happen if the polling has underestimated Labour’s support for a second consecutive GE or if there’s a late Labour surge. The latter appears unlikely, admittedly)
2) A Tory majority. (Most likely option - Tories get between 326 and 355 seats. Polling seems to favour the middle to upper end of this scale)
3) A Tory landslide. (Not much talk about this, but it could happen. Everyone seems to be focusing on a polling error one way equalling a hung parliament. True, but if it goes the other way the Tories could be in for 1997 numbers)

I'm expecting option 2. At best for labour will be 1.
There biggest problem is Scotland, which has shifted away from being a labour banker. And replacing those seats is a problem.
As for tactical voting. I agree, don't think it will be much in play.

Hopefully tactical voting will see Johnson, Raab and IDS lose their seats.

Lots of question marks over the polling this time around, not least because of the high number of voter registrations. Assuming they actually vote there could be another 2-3million votes that are unlikely to appear in these poll.

It really should not be enough to give Labour victory. Incidentally they should really ask themselves exactly why they are not going to win against the worst government and worst PM in my lifetime, if not modern history. If they can't win against this shower of poop then how on earth are they ever going to win? Everybody outside of the Labour party knows why, but Corbyn and his gang stay popular with their acolytes and they don't seem to be big on introspection.

The other factor is tactical voting, not that Corbyn et al seem keen on the idea. There are seats where it will make a difference, probably not many but then it does not have to be many. As LT has said it will be hilarious if some of the most useless Tories lose their seats.

The Tories have been hollowed out from within. Rotted until just the worst kinds of fungus remain, propped up by a small number of seriously wealthy people (though obviously not Russian, not at all, the money was just resting in the account etc...). But they still can astonishingly get votes based on their populist agenda. They too need a completely fresh start. We need at least two viable parties going forward.

So I am hoping for a hung parliament, followed by a short period of chaos and then another election. During that period Corbyn will be dumped. Its too much to hope for a more moderate Labour leader but having one who is more media savvy and more smart would be a good step. Lib dems should gain some seats but I don't think they will get enough to force the kind of agenda which might get us out of this mire, but a man can dream. It will be terrific if they could gain a big enough share of the vote so that next time around they are considered to be more of a viable option, but I do appreciate that is again being wildly optimistic.

Lib Dems have shot their bolt Lostinwales. They gained a few MP's through defections, but overall that number is forecasted to go down.
Swinson is just too annoying.

lostinwales wrote:Lots of question marks over the polling this time around, not least because of the high number of voter registrations. Assuming they actually vote there could be another 2-3million votes that are unlikely to appear in these poll.

I don't see it making much difference to the polls, you only get asked if you're going to vote and who for so registration doesn't come into it. That number does also include people who have voted before but have moved address, it doesn't differentiate between new and old voters in that sense. I'd imagine looking at the age groups that it's a lot of university students who won't quite be going home for Christmas.