The Covid-19 serious chat thread

[RDW]

First topic message reminder :

A thread set up to house the more serious chat relating to the global pandemic.

Nothing has changed in what we expect from discussions on here though:

- Please treat each other with respect
- Avoid hyperbole and fake news
- This thread shouldn't be used for a political soapbox, but political discussion will likely happen. See point 1!

A reminder that we have a community thread here for people to vent, look for help and all round support each other. https://www.606v2.com/t69506-the-covid-19-community-thread#3896653

[navyblueshorts]

The govt. have just said that we’re now following the South Korean method of dealing with this. That is an admission that we’ve got this wrong from the start. South Korea has 80% of our population. It is more densely populated. It is far closer to the outbreak. They had their first case before us. If they had time to prepare then so did we. They have had 254 deaths we have had nearly 30,000. In October this year we were rated the second best prepared in the world for an event like this. Is anyone still going to argue that our government’s track record on this is remotely acceptable and if so why? I’m genuinely interested to hear a viable defence.

With the exception of starting it 3 months after the problem has surfaced and not as soon as they were aware of it.

On a separate tack, if the scientist that devised lock down cannot keep to it, what hope do the general public have.

People make mistakes, and he's no different; doesn't make the advice any less correct though, does it? Plenty of the general public, despite what UKG are generally saying at briefings, are not doing what they're told.

[jimbopip]

Lots of mutations.

It always has been very contagious. It is the frequency at which it turns deadly which must be more of a concern.

Conversely, and at the risk of sounding counterintuitive, if a virus becomes more lethal that can be a positive. Viruses need to transmit from carrier to carrier in order to survive. If they kill their host before infecting another host then they die. If a virus has a high R number and low(ish) mortality rate it will spread exponentially. In Darwinian terms it will be successful. If it has a low R number and high mortality rate it will most likely lead to much shorter epidemics as people would die before they infected others. I am very aware it is all to easy to slip into Cummings-speak when trying to be objective about these things.
The uncomfortable truth about new viruses is that we are stuck with them until either they kill everyone available to host them OR a large enough percentage of the population have acquired immunity to make transmission impossible. we acquire immunity either through a vaccine or through being infected and surviving.
I heard one of the experts say on tv yesterday that it would appear that 10% of the population of London are showing signs of anti-bodies and outside London it is 3% This means 90% and 97%, respectively, still have not been infected. We still have a long way to go before we reach the herd immunity stage and no-one but Trump is expecting a vaccine before the middle of next year.
I think we'll see some easing up of lockdown followed by a second wave, lockdown, peak, easing up of lockdown, third wave and so on until about 80% of us are immune.
For me the chilling thought is that if upwards of 30 000 people have died so far where will it end?

[navyblueshorts]

Anecdote: neighbours (wealthy) went on Winter holiday to Dubai (December) and stayed in hotel that they reported was full of Chinese.
A little after return, their 1-y/o son got a mysterious fever/cough. Temp >39 °C, cough and hard to shake. Hospitalised and diagnosis was (and I paraphrase) viral illness of unknown nature.
Mother also subsequently ill, but not much worse than bad cold etc.

Covid-19? Who knows, but timeline/contacts/incubation more or less fits. If so, that was at least one unknown case in UK in late 2019.

[navyblueshorts]

Lots of mutations.

It always has been very contagious. It is the frequency at which it turns deadly which must be more of a concern.

Conversely, and at the risk of sounding counterintuitive, if a virus becomes more lethal that can be a positive. Viruses need to transmit from carrier to carrier in order to survive. If they kill their host before infecting another host then they die. If a virus has a high R number and low(ish) mortality rate it will spread exponentially. In Darwinian terms it will be successful. If it has a low R number and high mortality rate it will most likely lead to much shorter epidemics as people would die before they infected others. I am very aware it is all to easy to slip into Cummings-speak when trying to be objective about these things.
The uncomfortable truth about new viruses is that we are stuck with them until either they kill everyone available to host them OR a large enough percentage of the population have acquired immunity to make transmission impossible. we acquire immunity either through a vaccine or through being infected and surviving.
I heard one of the experts say on tv yesterday that it would appear that 10% of the population of London are showing signs of anti-bodies and outside London it is 3% This means 90% and 97%, respectively, still have not been infected. We still have a long way to go before we reach the herd immunity stage and no-one but Trump is expecting a vaccine before the middle of next year.
I think we'll see some easing up of lockdown followed by a second wave, lockdown, peak, easing up of lockdown, third wave and so on until about 80% of us are immune.
For me the chilling thought is that if upwards of 30 000 people have died so far where will it end?

Good post. Penultimate sentence interesting though. Almost sounds like herd immunity might be what we're heading for...

[lostinwales]

Lots of mutations.

It always has been very contagious. It is the frequency at which it turns deadly which must be more of a concern.

Conversely, and at the risk of sounding counterintuitive, if a virus becomes more lethal that can be a positive. Viruses need to transmit from carrier to carrier in order to survive. If they kill their host before infecting another host then they die. If a virus has a high R number and low(ish) mortality rate it will spread exponentially. In Darwinian terms it will be successful. If it has a low R number and high mortality rate it will most likely lead to much shorter epidemics as people would die before they infected others. I am very aware it is all to easy to slip into Cummings-speak when trying to be objective about these things.
The uncomfortable truth about new viruses is that we are stuck with them until either they kill everyone available to host them OR a large enough percentage of the population have acquired immunity to make transmission impossible. we acquire immunity either through a vaccine or through being infected and surviving.
I heard one of the experts say on tv yesterday that it would appear that 10% of the population of London are showing signs of anti-bodies and outside London it is 3% This means 90% and 97%, respectively, still have not been infected. We still have a long way to go before we reach the herd immunity stage and no-one but Trump is expecting a vaccine before the middle of next year.
I think we'll see some easing up of lockdown followed by a second wave, lockdown, peak, easing up of lockdown, third wave and so on until about 80% of us are immune.
For me the chilling thought is that if upwards of 30 000 people have died so far where will it end?

Yes - low lethality, together with carriers not showing symptoms (and time to develop) have all been key with causing the virus to spread so far. This was being said a long time ago. Original SARS more lethal but so much easier to spot those who are ill.

What I am not so sure about is the likelihood/ability of less dangerous mutations to take over.

[lostinwales]

The govt. have just said that we’re now following the South Korean method of dealing with this. That is an admission that we’ve got this wrong from the start. South Korea has 80% of our population. It is more densely populated. It is far closer to the outbreak. They had their first case before us. If they had time to prepare then so did we. They have had 254 deaths we have had nearly 30,000. In October this year we were rated the second best prepared in the world for an event like this. Is anyone still going to argue that our government’s track record on this is remotely acceptable and if so why? I’m genuinely interested to hear a viable defence.

With the exception of starting it 3 months after the problem has surfaced and not as soon as they were aware of it.

On a separate tack, if the scientist that devised lock down cannot keep to it, what hope do the general public have.

People make mistakes, and he's no different; doesn't make the advice any less correct though, does it? Plenty of the general public, despite what UKG are generally saying at briefings, are not doing what they're told.

Its the double standards. Nobody at the top gives a feck about Boris and his female friends. He talks about shaking hands on the day that SAGE recommended its a bad idea, and the same papers that demand the blood of the scientist either ignore it all or say something along the lines that 'That is just Boris being Boris' and shrugging their shoulders.

Ferguson is a very specialized kind of expert. They won't have a long queue of people who can take over the role. So what you should do is either decide you don't need that expertise any more or you slap him on the wrists for being an idiot and move on. Playing the shame game just seems very counterproductive - unless you consider that having the distraction from the progress of the virus is more important.

A little satire that sums up our government all too well
https://newsthump.com/2020/05/05/government-pledges-to-continue-to-do-all-it-can-to-look-like-its-doing-all-it-can-to-defeat-coronavirus/

[BamBam]

The Telegraph has been sitting on this dead cat ready for the opportune moment. The day we have the worst death count in Europe and Vallance admits we were too slow in testing is just the day that has been chosen

Bang on Lost, but is he not a significant contributor to the Imperial College report that suggested 250k deaths when the government was spouting herd immunity Love sacks? Sounds like they took the opportunity to get rid of someone who wasn't toeing the line to me

[lostinwales]

The Telegraph has been sitting on this dead cat ready for the opportune moment. The day we have the worst death count in Europe and Vallance admits we were too slow in testing is just the day that has been chosen

Bang on Lost, but is he not a significant contributor to the Imperial College report that suggested 250k deaths when the government was spouting herd immunity Love sacks? Sounds like they took the opportunity to get rid of someone who wasn't toeing the line to me

I could be wrong but believe his model was the one that forced a rethink about lock down. I am sure they could find some space for Ferguson on the alternative SAGE committee

I see Hancock is now suggesting that the police should be involved. Maybe they should also ask questions of Hancock appearing in public when showing symptoms himself while they are at it, but, you know, dead cats and all.

[navyblueshorts]

The govt. have just said that we’re now following the South Korean method of dealing with this. That is an admission that we’ve got this wrong from the start. South Korea has 80% of our population. It is more densely populated. It is far closer to the outbreak. They had their first case before us. If they had time to prepare then so did we. They have had 254 deaths we have had nearly 30,000. In October this year we were rated the second best prepared in the world for an event like this. Is anyone still going to argue that our government’s track record on this is remotely acceptable and if so why? I’m genuinely interested to hear a viable defence.

With the exception of starting it 3 months after the problem has surfaced and not as soon as they were aware of it.

On a separate tack, if the scientist that devised lock down cannot keep to it, what hope do the general public have.

People make mistakes, and he's no different; doesn't make the advice any less correct though, does it? Plenty of the general public, despite what UKG are generally saying at briefings, are not doing what they're told.

Its the double standards. Nobody at the top gives a feck about Boris and his female friends. He talks about shaking hands on the day that SAGE recommended its a bad idea, and the same papers that demand the blood of the scientist either ignore it all or say something along the lines that 'That is just Boris being Boris' and shrugging their shoulders.

Ferguson is a very specialized kind of expert. They won't have a long queue of people who can take over the role. So what you should do is either decide you don't need that expertise  any more or you slap him on the wrists for being an idiot and move on. Playing the shame game just seems very counterproductive - unless you consider that having the distraction from the progress of the virus is more important.

A little satire that sums up our government all too well
https://newsthump.com/2020/05/05/government-pledges-to-continue-to-do-all-it-can-to-look-like-its-doing-all-it-can-to-defeat-coronavirus/

Maybe. Were we in official lockdown when Boris was shaking hands? If anyone thinks UKG will no longer be taking advice from Ferguson, they're deluded. He just won't be on SAGE in an official capacity.

[navyblueshorts]

The Telegraph has been sitting on this dead cat ready for the opportune moment. The day we have the worst death count in Europe and Vallance admits we were too slow in testing is just the day that has been chosen

Bang on Lost, but is he not a significant contributor to the Imperial College report that suggested 250k deaths when the government was spouting herd immunity Love sacks? Sounds like they took the opportunity to get rid of someone who wasn't toeing the line to me

Or maybe the Telegraph needed time to verify the facts, ask Ferguson for his comments etc etc, before publishing? Is there no end to people's willingness to see conspiracy where there is more likely to be none? Then again, I guess this is where >20 years of political spin and media scheisse has got us.

[navyblueshorts]

The Telegraph has been sitting on this dead cat ready for the opportune moment. The day we have the worst death count in Europe and Vallance admits we were too slow in testing is just the day that has been chosen

Bang on Lost, but is he not a significant contributor to the Imperial College report that suggested 250k deaths when the government was spouting herd immunity Love sacks? Sounds like they took the opportunity to get rid of someone who wasn't toeing the line to me

I could be wrong but believe his model was the one that forced a rethink about lock down. I am sure they could find some space for Ferguson on the alternative SAGE committee

I see Hancock is now suggesting that the police should be involved. Maybe they should also ask questions of Hancock appearing in public when showing symptoms himself while they are at it, but, you know, dead cats and all.

They should be shot; figuratively, of course. Just how they think what they're proposing is likely to do anything but stir up more controversy is beyond me. Then again, I've seen enough scientists who have egos the size of a planet to know that this sort of thing is no surprise.

[lostinwales]

The Telegraph has been sitting on this dead cat ready for the opportune moment. The day we have the worst death count in Europe and Vallance admits we were too slow in testing is just the day that has been chosen

Bang on Lost, but is he not a significant contributor to the Imperial College report that suggested 250k deaths when the government was spouting herd immunity Love sacks? Sounds like they took the opportunity to get rid of someone who wasn't toeing the line to me

I could be wrong but believe his model was the one that forced a rethink about lock down. I am sure they could find some space for Ferguson on the alternative SAGE committee

I see Hancock is now suggesting that the police should be involved. Maybe they should also ask questions of Hancock appearing in public when showing symptoms himself while they are at it, but, you know, dead cats and all.

They should be shot; figuratively, of course. Just how they think what they're proposing is likely to do anything but stir up more controversy is beyond me. Then again, I've seen enough scientists who have egos the size of a planet to know that this sort of thing is no surprise.

They are a symptom, like so much that is going on in the media and social networks. In my mind the cause is a government that can't stop the spin and half truths, even when they get things right.

I like to think of it like this. Who would I prefer to work with (have govern us or whatever)? The guy who admits to a mistake but promises to work hard to make things better, or the guy who has obviously messed up but can't stop saying how wonderful everything is?

[navyblueshorts]

The Telegraph has been sitting on this dead cat ready for the opportune moment. The day we have the worst death count in Europe and Vallance admits we were too slow in testing is just the day that has been chosen

Bang on Lost, but is he not a significant contributor to the Imperial College report that suggested 250k deaths when the government was spouting herd immunity Love sacks? Sounds like they took the opportunity to get rid of someone who wasn't toeing the line to me

I could be wrong but believe his model was the one that forced a rethink about lock down. I am sure they could find some space for Ferguson on the alternative SAGE committee

I see Hancock is now suggesting that the police should be involved. Maybe they should also ask questions of Hancock appearing in public when showing symptoms himself while they are at it, but, you know, dead cats and all.

They should be shot; figuratively, of course. Just how they think what they're proposing is likely to do anything but stir up more controversy is beyond me. Then again, I've seen enough scientists who have egos the size of a planet to know that this sort of thing is no surprise.

They are a symptom, like so much that is going on in the media and social networks. In my mind the cause is a government that can't stop the spin and half truths, even when they get things right.

I like to think of it like this. Who would I prefer to work with (have govern us or whatever)? The guy who admits to a mistake but promises to work hard to make things better, or the guy who has obviously messed up but can't stop saying how wonderful everything is?

Fair points. Haven't seen much of the former political type in the last 20-25 years. Probably rare before that too; just that we have more mainstream media online and too much chuffing social media now.

[tigertattie]

Damn social media. They should all be shut down!

cept 606v2 of course!

[123456789.]

The govt. have just said that we’re now following the South Korean method of dealing with this. That is an admission that we’ve got this wrong from the start. South Korea has 80% of our population. It is more densely populated. It is far closer to the outbreak. They had their first case before us. If they had time to prepare then so did we. They have had 254 deaths we have had nearly 30,000. In October this year we were rated the second best prepared in the world for an event like this. Is anyone still going to argue that our government’s track record on this is remotely acceptable and if so why? I’m genuinely interested to hear a viable defence.

I'm not sure UKG have said that, have they? Didn't they say we could/should learn from their successes? You're conveniently forgetting the availability of mass testing and tracing there. We did track/trace originally, and quarantining (see people isolated on the Wirral etc). Did you not listen to Newton the other day? They were seeing random hot spots cropping up everywhere, w/ no known travel links to China etc. If we didn't have test/track/trace capacity at that point, you get where we are now. S. Korea had direct experience of SARS and took another potential epi/pandemic seriously.
You could argue we should have taken it seriously, and I wouldn't disagree. Various people have said this was likely for quite some time.

See it was reported France had at least one positive in December. It was here in abundance before we even knew it. Perhaps a reflection of our over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing and all those people making trips to China in the late Autumn and bringing an unwelcome guest back? See also outbreak in northern Italy - where is it all that cheap fashion gets made these days?

If we were genuinely the 2nd best prepared nation in October, it's surely a bit of a stretch to believe there's been a deliberate screw up/rundown of testing/destruction of PPE etc in, what, 4-5 months? Either you think they've been utter scheisse over last few months (I don't, for all there are no doubt areas where they haven't been that good) or this is more complex that the simplistic view that so many want to paint it as.

Certainly, there are questions to answer about what could/should have been done better and what would have made a positive difference in outcomes and I couldn't disagree if you said the buck stops w/ this lot. Their misfortune, but something for the post-pandemic analysis. However, I think Labour etc will be making a big mistake if they try too hard to make political capital out of this.

One definite: Jeremy Hunt needs to STFU. If there's fault in preparation, PPE stocks, testing capacity etc, what was he doing for the ~6 years he was in charge of the Health brief? Bell end.

I would agree on Jeremy Hunt. I reckon he's playing politics. If, after the inquest, Johnson is damaged irreparably Hunt will be the MP that broke ranks first and will play on his experience as health secretary despite the fact that much of the blame for our lack of preparedness must lie at his door. I don't think the inquest will do for him mind. Cummings has realised that the media hysteria that would previously have done for Minister and Prime Ministers is just noise and they will use the people's Prime Minister Garbage.
As you've noted it was far more serious than any of us realised. That being said, I think that shows that we should have been more proactive at the start. All the evidence shows that the more proactive government's were at the beginning of this the better they coped. South Korea learnt the lessons of previous pandemics. They had fewer cases than we did during the SARs outbreak. According to the John Hopkins estimations we had excellent testing capacity at the beginning of this. The fact we didn't roll out mass testing would suggest either that estimation is wrong or the government opted not to utilise it. New Zealand have provided the gold standard in dealing with this and on almost every measure they have done the opposite of us.
I'm not sure Labour have any choice but to make political capital out of it. The events of the last few years have formed a pretty solid bond between Boris Johnson and large tracts of the white working class, Labour need to break that bond somehow if they are to get in power anytime soon. I think it's hard to see that they won't try to use the government's failings on Covid-19 to to that. They need to tread the line between going overboard now and ensuring their dissatisfaction is noted. The Iraq war is the scandal that still dogs the last Labour government. The Conservative party never managed to get that much political traction from the mistakes on Iraq because they supported the government through that.

[lostinwales]

Of course Rhyming Hunt is both playing politics and is responsible for much of the current mess. He is however both vaguely competent and has an in depth understanding of the NHS (including its current failings - see above). For those reasons it would be useful for getting him more involved.

[guildfordbat]

The govt. have just said that we’re now following the South Korean method of dealing with this. That is an admission that we’ve got this wrong from the start. South Korea has 80% of our population. It is more densely populated. It is far closer to the outbreak. They had their first case before us. If they had time to prepare then so did we. They have had 254 deaths we have had nearly 30,000. In October this year we were rated the second best prepared in the world for an event like this. Is anyone still going to argue that our government’s track record on this is remotely acceptable and if so why? I’m genuinely interested to hear a viable defence.

With the exception of starting it 3 months after the problem has surfaced and not as soon as they were aware of it.

On a separate tack, if the scientist that devised lock down cannot keep to it, what hope do the general public have.

People make mistakes, and he's no different; doesn't make the advice any less correct though, does it? Plenty of the general public, despite what UKG are generally saying at briefings, are not doing what they're told.

Sprinkling salt on your cornflakes instead of sugar is a mistake. What Ferguson did is not.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

It goes from bad to worse, remember all the fuss that was made of the PPE coming in from Turkey "this Sunday", that eventually had to be brought in by the RAF a week later. All of the 400,000 surgical gowns in the shipment fail to meet British safety standards and thus cannot be given to NHS staff. This is from The Telegraph.

I know that it was not Hancock who personally placed the order, but what is going on in his department. He is responsible for the manner in which his department conducts itself and its competence, or as in this case incompetence.

I struggle to see what anyone in this government, apart from Rishi Sunak has carried out competently.

[navyblueshorts]

Of course Rhyming Hunt is both playing politics and is responsible for much of the current mess. He is however both vaguely competent and has an in depth understanding of the NHS (including its current failings - see above). For those reasons it would be useful for getting him more involved.

Disagree. He has (or has he?) insight into NHS, but he's politicking and, I'd guess, pissed off he lost health brief. Go away, Jeremy.

While I'm at it, **** off Bliar. No-one, repeat no-one, wants to hear from you. Ever again.

[navyblueshorts]

It goes from bad to worse, remember all the fuss that was made of the PPE coming in from Turkey "this Sunday", that eventually had to be brought in by the RAF a week later. All of the 400,000 surgical gowns in the shipment fail to meet British safety standards and thus cannot be given to NHS staff. This is from The Telegraph.

I know that it was not Hancock who personally placed the order, but what is going on in his department. He is responsible for the manner in which his department conducts itself and its competence, or as in this case incompetence.

I struggle to see what anyone in this government, apart from Rishi Sunak has carried out competently.

You know, maybe this is the fault of Turkey? Perhaps UKG gave them specs, Turkey said (guaranteed?) they'd meet them...and they didn't. Still, let's jump to conclusions again...

[lostinwales]

Of course Rhyming Hunt is both playing politics and is responsible for much of the current mess. He is however both vaguely competent and has an in depth understanding of the NHS (including its current failings - see above). For those reasons it would be useful for getting him more involved.

Disagree. He has (or has he?) insight into NHS, but he's politicking and, I'd guess, pissed off he lost health brief. Go away, Jeremy.

While I'm at it, **** off Bliar. No-one, repeat no-one, wants to hear from you. Ever again.

Hunt is the longest serving health secretary we have ever had, believe it or not. One huge issue is that none of our ministers are actually experienced or have an in depth understanding of their briefs. Hunt is awful. Relative to the current bunch not quite so bad, and he does understand health. However distasteful it is, in a disaster its worth considering who might be best placed to carry out a role (or at least advise) rather than hoping that just because somebody hasn't fecked up their role yet that they won't in the near future

Blair one of the best PM's we have ever had. There was good as well as the bad that the left and right have been ramming down our throats ever since - but that is a whole other argument. And no I wouldn't advocate for any kind of return to a front line role for Blair.

[Pr4wn]

It goes from bad to worse, remember all the fuss that was made of the PPE coming in from Turkey "this Sunday", that eventually had to be brought in by the RAF a week later. All of the 400,000 surgical gowns in the shipment fail to meet British safety standards and thus cannot be given to NHS staff. This is from The Telegraph.

I know that it was not Hancock who personally placed the order, but what is going on in his department. He is responsible for the manner in which his department conducts itself and its competence, or as in this case incompetence.

I struggle to see what anyone in this government, apart from Rishi Sunak has carried out competently.

You know, maybe this is the fault of Turkey? Perhaps UKG gave them specs, Turkey said (guaranteed?) they'd meet them...and they didn't. Still, let's jump to conclusions again...

I'd bet a fair wager that Occam's Razor applies here.

[guildfordbat]

It goes from bad to worse, remember all the fuss that was made of the PPE coming in from Turkey "this Sunday", that eventually had to be brought in by the RAF a week later. All of the 400,000 surgical gowns in the shipment fail to meet British safety standards and thus cannot be given to NHS staff. This is from The Telegraph.

I know that it was not Hancock who personally placed the order, but what is going on in his department. He is responsible for the manner in which his department conducts itself and its competence, or as in this case incompetence.

I struggle to see what anyone in this government, apart from Rishi Sunak has carried out competently.

You know, maybe this is the fault of Turkey? Perhaps UKG gave them specs, Turkey said (guaranteed?) they'd meet them...and they didn't. Still, let's jump to conclusions again...

I don't think it's jumping to conclusions or unfair to regard the UK Government as having fouled up on this order. Jenrick was happy to use the order being made and ''due to arrive tomorrow'' as a means to divert criticism. That was as far back as Saturday 18th April.

[123456789.]

I think we’re engaging into the realm of fantasy to suggest that the issues we’re currently facing are the consequence of a series of factors outwith the control of our government. Much of the party’s frontline talent was purged to suit the ego of the Dear Leader. We have a B team Government for the biggest crisis of our time. It’s not bad luck, it’s bad governance.

[BamBam]

The penny hasn't quite dropped to boot level yet but maybe it'll get there one day soon!

[rodders]

The Telegraph has been sitting on this dead cat ready for the opportune moment. The day we have the worst death count in Europe and Vallance admits we were too slow in testing is just the day that has been chosen

Bang on Lost, but is he not a significant contributor to the Imperial College report that suggested 250k deaths when the government was spouting herd immunity Love sacks? Sounds like they took the opportunity to get rid of someone who wasn't toeing the line to me

100% agree, and the media have totally discredited his character now so if he was to go public with any concerns going forward his views will carry a lot less credibility.

Interesting he did say in his defense that he thought as he had it he was now immune and exempt from rules, the response being from Valance (according to Hancock) that there is no evidence of being immune following infection and therefore he was not exempt.

Now I'm not condoning Ferguson here but it does seem hypocritical from the government and chief medical officer who've been peddling the idea from some time that herd immunity would be achieved once enough people got infected and at one point were peddling the idea of immunity passports for those who had antibodies but when it suits them admit there is no evidence to support this view.  

So basically I can only conclude this is an obvious ploy to use Ferguson as a fall guy and eliminate any potential dissenting voice from what ever nonsense Johnson announces on Sunday.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

It goes from bad to worse, remember all the fuss that was made of the PPE coming in from Turkey "this Sunday", that eventually had to be brought in by the RAF a week later. All of the 400,000 surgical gowns in the shipment fail to meet British safety standards and thus cannot be given to NHS staff. This is from The Telegraph.

I know that it was not Hancock who personally placed the order, but what is going on in his department. He is responsible for the manner in which his department conducts itself and its competence, or as in this case incompetence.

I struggle to see what anyone in this government, apart from Rishi Sunak has carried out competently.

You know, maybe this is the fault of Turkey? Perhaps UKG gave them specs, Turkey said (guaranteed?) they'd meet them...and they didn't. Still, let's jump to conclusions again...

I VERY VERY VERY strongly suspect that if the UKG could excuse themselves that way they would have done so as soon as the Telegraph published the story, as they have never mentioned it and seem to be trying to ignore it and pretend it didn't happen, I must assume they are at fault.

[navyblueshorts]

Of course Rhyming Hunt is both playing politics and is responsible for much of the current mess. He is however both vaguely competent and has an in depth understanding of the NHS (including its current failings - see above). For those reasons it would be useful for getting him more involved.

Disagree. He has (or has he?) insight into NHS, but he's politicking and, I'd guess, pissed off he lost health brief. Go away, Jeremy.

While I'm at it, **** off Bliar. No-one, repeat no-one, wants to hear from you. Ever again.

Hunt is the longest serving health secretary we have ever had, believe it or not. One huge issue is that none of our ministers are actually experienced or have an in depth understanding of their briefs. Hunt is awful. Relative to the current bunch not quite so bad, and he does understand health. However distasteful it is, in a disaster its worth considering who might be best placed to carry out a role (or at least advise) rather than hoping that just because somebody hasn't fecked up their role yet that they won't in the near future

Blair one of the best PM's we have ever had. There was good as well as the bad that the left and right have been ramming down our throats ever since - but that is a whole other argument. And no I wouldn't advocate for any kind of return to a front line role for Blair.

Fair points, but you know what Jeremy? Why not help out w/o the chuffing public comments? You are not helping.

I was OK on Bliar early on and, love him or loathe him, he was successful and did some good things. I'll never forgive him for Iraq. He can go **** himself or maybe walk around Baghdad w/o any security...

[navyblueshorts]

It goes from bad to worse, remember all the fuss that was made of the PPE coming in from Turkey "this Sunday", that eventually had to be brought in by the RAF a week later. All of the 400,000 surgical gowns in the shipment fail to meet British safety standards and thus cannot be given to NHS staff. This is from The Telegraph.

I know that it was not Hancock who personally placed the order, but what is going on in his department. He is responsible for the manner in which his department conducts itself and its competence, or as in this case incompetence.

I struggle to see what anyone in this government, apart from Rishi Sunak has carried out competently.

You know, maybe this is the fault of Turkey? Perhaps UKG gave them specs, Turkey said (guaranteed?) they'd meet them...and they didn't. Still, let's jump to conclusions again...

I'd bet a fair wager that Occam's Razor applies here.

Could be. My point being, though, that we don't know the details.

[navyblueshorts]

It goes from bad to worse, remember all the fuss that was made of the PPE coming in from Turkey "this Sunday", that eventually had to be brought in by the RAF a week later. All of the 400,000 surgical gowns in the shipment fail to meet British safety standards and thus cannot be given to NHS staff. This is from The Telegraph.

I know that it was not Hancock who personally placed the order, but what is going on in his department. He is responsible for the manner in which his department conducts itself and its competence, or as in this case incompetence.

I struggle to see what anyone in this government, apart from Rishi Sunak has carried out competently.

You know, maybe this is the fault of Turkey? Perhaps UKG gave them specs, Turkey said (guaranteed?) they'd meet them...and they didn't. Still, let's jump to conclusions again...

I VERY VERY VERY strongly suspect that if the UKG could excuse themselves that way they would have done so as soon as the Telegraph published the story, as they have never mentioned it and seem to be trying to ignore it and pretend it didn't happen, I must assume they are at fault.

Maybe so. Someone will no doubt ask them about it and we can see what they say.

[navyblueshorts]

I think this says a lot:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/4t87efrvgb/Results%20for%20Coronavirus%20Tracker%20GB%20-%20Wave%206_OMI220%20-%2017.4.2020_political%20(006)%20(003).pdf

See page 3 of the 4. Basically, what you think about UKG on this is based on your 2019 UK GE voting preference. People commenting objectively on this? Pull the other one.

[navyblueshorts]

It goes from bad to worse, remember all the fuss that was made of the PPE coming in from Turkey "this Sunday", that eventually had to be brought in by the RAF a week later. All of the 400,000 surgical gowns in the shipment fail to meet British safety standards and thus cannot be given to NHS staff. This is from The Telegraph.

I know that it was not Hancock who personally placed the order, but what is going on in his department. He is responsible for the manner in which his department conducts itself and its competence, or as in this case incompetence.

I struggle to see what anyone in this government, apart from Rishi Sunak has carried out competently.

You know, maybe this is the fault of Turkey? Perhaps UKG gave them specs, Turkey said (guaranteed?) they'd meet them...and they didn't. Still, let's jump to conclusions again...

I don't think it's jumping to conclusions or unfair to regard the UK Government as having fouled up on this order. Jenrick was happy to use the order being made and ''due to arrive tomorrow'' as a means to divert criticism. That was as far back as Saturday 18th April.

I suggest it's the very definition of jumping to conclusions. Maybe Jenrick was indeed running interference on this and just saying "It's on the way!" to calm the PPE furore. Maybe there's other info we're not privy to?

Who knows? People had made up their minds on UKG performance on this crisis regardless. 99% don't give a stuff about the detail - they just want to hate/love the current Government and they'll do so, no matter what.

[lostinwales]

Its a sh!tstorm - and the government would be getting a lot of difficult questions almost regardless of how well they performed.

I know we have to be very careful how we criticise the government for these very reasons, but really, it feels like they'll always find a way to mess up.

[123456789.]

I don't think anybody is commenting from an unbiased perspective on this. We all have bias on pretty much all matters. I don't mind saying that I didn't consider voting for the Conservative party this December, partly because of Brexit but mainly because of the personal distaste I have for the Prime Minister. So yes I have a pretty heavy bias against the government on most matters. Just as some people are heavily biased in its favour. It is equally fair to say that those who criticise the government are able to use statistics and comparisons to back up their arguments. If you take time to read the perspective of the rest of the world you will see there is incredulity, both at our response and the sycophancy of elements of our media.

New Zealand are the Gold Standard on this, they have been able to start lifting lockdown because it appears they have defeated the disease for the time being. Their shorter lockdown also meant less of an economic model. Before I start a comparison it worth saying that there have been good points in our response; the furlough scheme and the Nightingale hospitals for example. Avoiding the NHS being overwhelmed is an achievement in itself. As I have said before I don't think you can blame the government for all of our failings. People deciding that the lockdown should not apply to them or that they are special cases cannot be blamed on the government in a liberal democracy. The PM cannot hold everyone's hand. Nonetheless, here is some detail for you:

1. Early Rhetoric
Jacinda Ardern: "We're going hard and we're going early, We only have 102 cases, but so did Italy once."
Boris Johnson: "“I was at a hospital the other night where I think there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you will be pleased to know, and I continue to shake hands”

2. Testing
Testing Per Million:
New Zealand - 34,843
United Kingdom - 21,330
John Hopkins University GHS Index, October 2019:
On Laboratory Systems the UK Scored 100/100, on Real time surveillance and reporting the UK was one of two countries to score 100/100. The other was Spain who have tested double the number of people per million that we have. New Zealand scored 66.7 on the former and 48.3 on the latter.
Overall we scored 77.9 (2nd in the world), New Zealand scored 54.0 (35th in the world).
Further evidence comes from Germany and South Korea that more extensive testing, earlier in the chain of infection resulted in fewer deaths.
Where, if not the government, should the blame lie for our failure to maximise our ability to test?

3. Inbound Travel
New Zealand: 14 days quarantine on arrival
UK: No tests whatsoever on arrival, Matt Hancock says 15,000 arrivals every day unchecked including from Covid-19 hotspots.

4. Lockdown
New Zealand: Within 48 hours of their first death
United Kingdom: 25 days post the first death. Incidentally, Boris Johnson did not attend his first Cobra meeting until two days after the first Coronavirus Death.

There are caveats on this of course. New Zealand has a smaller population than us, it is more sparsely populated and had more time to prepare for the Pandemic than we did. It also had the benefit of watching other countries response. On that it is worth comparing us to South Korea, South Korea is more densely populated than the United Kingdom, it has 80% of our population and 0.9% of the deaths. They had cases before we had them. They tacked and traced early where we didn't. We now have more tests per million than they do, because they got the outbreak under control by testing more extensively than us early on. On real time surveillance and reporting they got 95/100 where we were scored at 100. On laboratory systems they were scored at 75 where we were scored at 100. Overall they were scored at 70.2 where we were scored at 77.9. You can compare us to Germany or Ireland too and the results are the same. We have 12% of the official deaths around the world and 0.87% of the world's population. We can do so much better than we are on this. People are dying because of the lackadaisical response in the early days of this crisis.


I am biased, but the numbers speak for themselves. We were the most prepared nation in Europe. We have the most deaths in total in Europe. We have the 6th most deaths per million people. I don't think it's been deliberate mistakes on behalf of the government or a malevolent plan to kill of the vulnerable and the elderly. I just think it's a poor government doing a poor job. I would love to read a genuine explanation as to why you would feel that this has been an effective or even acceptable response to the worst crisis in the last century.

https://www.ghsindex.org/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://appeasement.org/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/06/complacent-uk-draws-global-criticism-for-covid-19-response-boris-johnson?fbclid=IwAR1st5aocUPYpHBDGZu05HguzhRzpillp0CcRPu9g7J8ZDncD_XkzZOMORg





I also very much so feel and have always felt that Boris Johnson is a fat, pompous, elitist, cheating b*stard with sh*t hair and a silly voice. There's my bias. He's probably slightly better at the job than Jeremy Corbyn. But that's like saying my mother is better at peeing standing up than my Auntie.

[BamBam]

I think this says a lot:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/4t87efrvgb/Results%20for%20Coronavirus%20Tracker%20GB%20-%20Wave%206_OMI220%20-%2017.4.2020_political%20(006)%20(003).pdf

See page 3 of the 4. Basically, what you think about UKG on this is based on your 2019 UK GE voting preference. People commenting objectively on this? Pull the other one.

Given that Lab / LD voters are split with 60% of LD voters thinking the government has done well, while 90% of Tory voters think the government are doing well, what exactly have you proven here?

Other than the fact the Brexit vote still thinks the sun shines out of Johnsons fat arse

[Samo]

I think this says a lot:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/4t87efrvgb/Results%20for%20Coronavirus%20Tracker%20GB%20-%20Wave%206_OMI220%20-%2017.4.2020_political%20(006)%20(003).pdf

See page 3 of the 4. Basically, what you think about UKG on this is based on your 2019 UK GE voting preference. People commenting objectively on this? Pull the other one.

Given that Lab / LD voters are split with 60% of LD voters thinking the government has done well, while 90% of Tory voters think the government are doing well, what exactly have you proven here?

Other than the fact the Brexit vote still thinks the sun shines out of Johnsons fat arse

Scotland also thoroughly rejected the Tories in 2019 but apparently the majority of Scots think that the Tories are doing well? That doesnt fit the "political bias" argument.

[hampo17]

Wales have extended lockdown for a further 3 weeks today.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

So now, some three months after it started, the UKG have decided to request that all people arriving in this country by air go into a 2 week quarantine, what most sensible governments have been enforcing for months. They haven't even learnt that they need to enforce it, the initial request to "lockdown" did not work, why will this one?

Despite that they have seen the need for this, they are not bringing it in until the end of May, three weeks time. WTF. If it is needed, (and it always was), it is needed NOW

What is worse, is my wife is going to cut my hair today, she will nibble at it until I have a buzz cut.

[Pr4wn]

My wife is dying to cut mine. I look absolutely terrible but refusing her repeated requests is giving me far more pleasure than looking good ever would.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Not as bad as feared, in fact, you would have to look hard to tell it wasn't from an ordinary barber.

[lostinwales]

Crazy - the 'lets not have a lockdown because it'l wreck the economy' is going to turn into 'we are having to wreck our economy because we didn't go into lockdown fast enough so will take longer to leave it'

[123456789.]

Crazy - the 'lets not have a lockdown because it'l wreck the economy' is going to turn into 'we are having to wreck our economy because we didn't go into lockdown fast enough so will take longer to leave it'

It's just part of the cycle really. The Cognitive Dissonance brigade start with the line that the government is doing well in a tough situation. When countered with other countries doing much better they argue that Britain has a unique set of circumstances that makes it more likely to suffer from this disease. So we had the fact that testing capacity was greater in Germany and South Korea to begin with, that's now been debunked. Then we had the population density issue when compared to Ireland and New Zealand, well Germany and South Korea's population density is greater than our own. Then we had the fact that we have busier airports so it would be harder to contain, well in that case we should have had significant restrictions on entrance to the country. This was no more unprecedented here than it was in Germany and if we are to believe that we have a set of conditions that makes it more potent here than elsewhere then it makes our government's inaction all the more inexcusable.

Keir Starmer has had a good weekend though, I've voted for Labour once in my life in a mock election at school to wind up my friend who was the Tory candidate, I think we may be approaching a second occasion.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

It appears that the knives are out for Hancock, not fair really as he seems to be taking the Sh*t for everything, rather than just his own mistakes. The person who should be taking the stick, for allowing the ridiculous popularist policies that the UKG originally came up with that allowed the virus to get a hold in the first place is on TV tonight, first time in a while, but guess what, he will be giving out some good news, only time you see him these days.

I hope one of the questions from the public, if the public are allowed to ask him questions, is what happened to our No. 2 status in the world with regard to being prepared for a pandemic virus. We were supposed to have all the testing facilities to carry out a lot more than 100,000 tests a day, where did it disappear to? How many people have died as a result?

Just as concerning, have we had the cronyism that Iraq had, where Saddam Hussein actually thought he possessed chemical weapons, did the UKG actually believe the figures on testing capability given to them by their officials which were then reported to the WHO. If so, what else have we not got, that we think we have?

[WELL-PAST-IT]

and more:

Despite the UKG stating that we had the capacity to carry out 140,000 tests per day now and that Johnson is looking to have upwards of 200,000 by the end of May, we stall haven't consistently hit 100,000 and usually fallen well short, but we are now having to send test 50,000 to the USA to be analysed as we have had a system hiccup.

Anyone who fancies a party in a brewery, choose a different party to the current UKG to organise it.

[Samo]

Dont worry, Johnsons done what he’s done his whole career and came up with a new slogan. Who needs meaningful policies and effective leadership when you can just throw out a snappy slogan to keep the masses distracted?

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Probably why a lot of the education in this country is crap, with effectively a 2 party system, you need a large block to catch onto your rhetoric and actually believe it, the system in the states is similar and look what they have. Countries that have governments that have to work with other parties such as Germany, tend to have to think a bit more and make sense to a wider electorate.

[hampo17]

Reading about this new slogan and it's possibly the stupidest thing I've read. So "stay home" didn't keep people at home, the new slogan is "stay alert", and Robert Jenrick has told the BBC that people can stay alert by staying at home.

It's almost like they've got a 3 year old coming up with these.

[123456789.]

I think "Stop Being A Dick" would be effective at this point. Apparently we're still recording around 18000 new infections per day which will likely amount to 180 deaths a day at some point in the next few weeks. That would put us still around 2-3 weeks behind Italy in the progression of this disease. Yet for some reason people in this country have decided they have had enough of this. They are happy enough to cheer on the people who fought in the war but feel it's a step too far to stay at home for those of them still alive. It's unbelievably frustrating. This isn't a dig at the government, you can say what you like about the government's handling of this whole crisis. We live in a well educated country and all people are being asked to do is stay at home and they just cannot do it. Everyone in the country knows the deal and the slogan the government uses should be immaterial. The Prime Minister is a sod but in his defence he can't hold everyone's hand (not least when he's trying to grab every other woman's arse).

[Samo]

Included in 10 Downing Street briefing about what the slogan means is the absolute diamond “Stay Alert by staying at home as much as possible”.

Give me strength.

[123456789.]

Again, in fairness to Boris Johnson he does not merely have to contend with the majority of people who voted against him and his flagship policy, he also has David Davis and his acolytes on the back benches. Double D, whose periods of preeminence always tend to coincide with particularly low polling numbers for the Tory party, has decided to contribute the full force of his intellect to this conundrum and has come up with a predictably mentally challenged answer. In a week when our deaths per capita is ahead of the rest of the world and comparable only to Sweden, David Davis has advocated that we move wholeheartedly to the Swedish model.

With the current bunch running the country 'Stay Alert' may be a pretty smart message. 'Stay Alert' in case psycho Cummings appears at your window in the dead of night. 'Stay Alert' if you happen to be a woman in the Westminster area now BJ is out of hospital, wife-number-3 to be will likely be out of action for a couple of weeks after all. 'Stay Alert' if you happen to be born abroad, don't have a PHD and Priti Patel is about. 'Stay Alert' if Priti Patel and Diane Abbott try to think in the same place at the same time, just in case it induces some form of rupture in the fabric of space and time.

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