Wales v Scotland 6N Super Saturday 31st Oct 2020

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Wales v Scotland

6 Nations Championship
Saturday 31st Oct
Parc y Scarlets

KO 14.15


Well Wales and Scotland kick off Super saturday, only 7 months late, but a game we are all happy to see being played at long last.

Scotland started the new session of internationals in much the same vein as they finnished, albeit was against Georgia, who were even more rusty than the rest of the teams and did not put up a great opposition.

Wales, by their own high standards, did not have a great tournament so far, the transition from Gatland to Pivac was always going to be a little tricky and so it has proved. They came up against a French side who were up for it at home and got comfortably beaten last week, for whatever reason, they just don't seem to have quite clicked yet.

One thing is for sure though, they will not relish the prospect of being beaten by Scotland at home, it is a long time since that has happened! They will also be battle hardened by the game last weekend and you can only expect them to improve.

So are Scotland feeling confident?

Well they do seem to be playing to a decent standard atm, but we have been there before and left the principality with our trails trailing between our legs on many occasions. It is and always will be a very hard place to come and win a game.

It will be odd playing in an empty stadium though and you wonder how it might effect both teams. Wales are used to having that very passionate crowd behind them playing at home and no doubt it has helped get them accross the line on more than one occasion.

Scotland have to feel that they have a good chance here, but also have to manage that pressure, something that they have not been very good at in recent times.

It should be a cracking game.

I am hoping for a Scotland team along these lines:

1. Sutherland
2. Brown
3. Fagerson Z
4. Cummings
5. Gray J
6. Ritchie
7. Watson
8. Haining
9. Price
10. Russell
11. VDM
12. Johnson
13. Harris
14. Graham
15. Hogg - Capt

Subs:

Keeble
McInally
Berghan
Toolis
Cowan
Horne G
Hastings
Jones H

I'm not sure Wales "outplayed" France, unless I was viewing a different game.

I'm talking about the 6Ns game there, FES. They clearly didn't outplay them last week. Should have made that clearer.

Ah, my mistake. Fair enough.

Well definitely some surprises in there. Not sure I agree with them but in the Tombola we trust.

Thomson - can his body stand up to the rigors of international rugby? Given his awful history of brain injury does he still want to stick his head in the dark places he needs to? I wouldn't blame him if that's a no. We don't have many alternative options however.

Kinghorn - Toonie clearly rates him, and I suspect he is in there due to the aerial onslaught we're due to receive from the Welsh. If VDM wasn't around I wouldn't mind this at all - Kinghorn has done well for us on the wing, and there's less pressure than at 15.

Lang - again uninspiring, but Toonie maybe felt Johnson wasn't quite ready yet. One game in 10 months (or however long it was) isn't ideal preparation for a Test. At least both him and Harris are solid and hardowrking so our defence should be good. Maybe Russell will get the best out of them attack wise.

Steele - big surprse, but Toonie clearly rates him and wants him involved. I didn't see his 3 months at 'quins that Toonie keeps talking up but it must have been outstanding, as for the years prior to that he looked nothing more than a solid club pro.

VDM - this is the one I probably agree with least. For me he's not a bench player - I don't think he's ever been on a bench! He's a show pony and strike player - he might do nothing for 60 minutes then get one opportunity where he runs through 3 players, round another then beats the fullback with raw pace. If he only comes off the bench for 20 minutes there's a good chance he'll barely see the ball, unless we deliberately bring him into the game. Hopefully with Russell on the pitch that happens.  I bet he comes off the bench and has a stormer after me saying all this! (which I'll be delighted with).


As for the game, as I said previously there's really no more excuses for losing in Wales now. Saying that, I think Wales will win. Talk of their demise is greatly exaggerated and I'm expecting a big backlash after last week. I worry we don't have enough attacking creativity with that midfield and we'll struggle to penetrate their defence. It will be a big ask for our forwards to get on top of that lot. The Welsh XV has much better balance to it too, with their traditional big lad back in harness at 12!

What's Shane Lewis-Hughes's story?

To my shame I've never heard of him!

The weather looks like it is going to be awful in West Wales on Saturday afternoon, akin to the Calcutta Cup match which has the potential to make the game more of a lottery. It certainly does not look as if it is going to be a day to chuck it about.

Maybe that has influenced some of Toonie's selections.

Kinghorn better than VDM under the high ball?

Hard straight running going to be the flavour of the day, Harris and Lang?

Steele maybe has the better kicking game than Horne?

RDW wrote:What's Shane Lewis-Hughes's story?

To my shame I've never heard of him!

He’s been with Cardiff for a while getting an opportunity here and there, seems to have come out of nowhere in the last few matches and got himself noticed - a bit like Ellis Jenkins did. I hope he goes well. Sir Botham jnr has been doing quite well for them too. Looks like we’re good in the back-row for a while. Just need to poach more front 5 and midfielders now. Where’s Halaholo?

If the weather is poor I think that might be advantage to Wales, surprisingly. We have a few starters who can kick well and some recruits up front. This just makes the forward replacements all the more puzzling though, most are open game players. Nicky Smith would have been handy, very strong for a smaller prop, and can play like a flanker.

mikey_dragon wrote:

RDW wrote:What's Shane Lewis-Hughes's story?

To my shame I've never heard of him!

He’s been with Cardiff for a while getting an opportunity here and there, seems to have come out of nowhere in the last few matches and got himself noticed - a bit like Ellis Jenkins did. I hope he goes well. Sir Botham jnr has been doing quite well for them too. Looks like we’re good in the back-row for a while. Just need to poach more front 5 and midfielders now. Where’s Halaholo?

Thanks Mikey.

What type of player is he?

Scotland's backrow is incredibly atheltic with two real poachers, but lacking in grunt.

I haven’t seen a lot of him, only in recent games. He’s quite a good all-rounder. I’ve seen comparisons to Lydiate, which I’d disagree with unless they’re talking about 21 year old Lydiate. We have fetchers coming out of our ears so it’s nice to get in someone different. I don’t think we can move forward with the three open-sides. Two at the most, with one of them now a ‘hybrid’ (Navidi).

Thinking about it, SLH is probably more similar to Shingler, not sure if SLH does much at the lineout bar lift. I would ask cardiff fans on this one!

Sounds like he's a bit of an unexpected selection!

BigGee wrote:The weather looks like it is going to be awful in West Wales on Saturday afternoon, akin to the Calcutta Cup match which has the potential to make the game more of a lottery. It certainly does not look as if it is going to be a day to chuck it about.

Maybe that has influenced some of Toonie's selections.

Kinghorn better than VDM under the high ball?

Hard straight running going to be the flavour of the day, Harris and Lang?

Steele maybe has the better kicking game than Horne?

I get picking for conditions... To an extent. They're all pros, they all play in Britain, most of them in Scotland for god's sake. This side just has brave defeat written all over it. Not because it's bad, it's a decent enough but some of the key positions are lacking, we've dropped one of our best impact subs, we have two centres who's contribution to the last game was joining the mauls. I'd think this would be the time to bank on someone like Jones at least making an impact from the bench. I don't know what HJ has done but his consistent exclusion worries me about the direction of this team. We can't just chuck talented players, especially when they are on hot form. If he can't get in now when will he ever get in? I feel bad for him because he's playing arguably some of the best rugby of his career and yet has been as good as consigned to holding the tackle bags for Scotland. I get Johnson maybe a bit more, he's been a long time out of the game and I would have been surprised if he was starting.

Kinghorn is another one that's baffling on form. I guess on the wing his distribution won't matter so much but if his running up blind alleys costs us (which is far more likely against Wales) I won't be happy! VdM hopefully can make an impact as RDW says.

The most ridiculous decision is dropping Horne for Steele. If Horne doesn't have an injury or corona I'll be wondering if Toonie has been drinking antifreeze. All the best to Steele for his debut, quite a special game to debut on, and he's worked hard for it... But really? Was Toonie actually watching last week? Horne's passing was absolutely sublime. I hope that it is injury/Corona related otherwise that is a woeful decision.

My guess is this is a bit of rotation and a bit of being kind to the pro 14 teams. Its a large number of internationals in a shoirt time so just maybe toonie is getting his rotation in early so as to have his best team later?

I agree tho that the centres, SH sub and VDM all look wrong selections

TJ wrote:My guess is this is a bit of rotation and a bit of being kind to the pro 14 teams. Its a large number of internationals in a shoirt time so just maybe toonie is getting his rotation in early so as to have his best team later?

I agree tho that the centres, SH sub and VDM all look wrong selections

I hope you're right, although seems a bit silly if we could finish the 6Ns with 3 wins not to use the best available squad!

Nah this isn't about rotation - that would be madness 2 games in and ending the 6N. Toonie has picked the best team he thinks he has available.

6 more games to play tho?

There were 6 games overall TJ (Georgia, Wales, Italy, France, Fiji plus the final). Only four after Wales and there is a two week break to the Italy game

Would rather give a break against Italy in a nothing tournament than Wales in a Six Nations (which I assume still has prize money at stake).

There are so many seriously heartbreaking aspects to the Covid pandemic that sport seems more trivial than ever. However, I am really disappointed that there won't be a full house in Llanelli to give JJ the send off he deserves.
My earliest memories of rugby are Bill McLaren commentating on the 5 Nations and marvelling at JPR, JJ, Ray Gravell and Gareth Edwards. Not to mention the incomparable Phil Bennett.
They were a team for the ages.

Really sad that, especially as the family lost JJ’s brother a few days before too. Would’ve been nice for supporters to have been able to pay their respects. I know the players will, but it’s still a real shame.

RDW wrote:What's Shane Lewis-Hughes's story?

To my shame I've never heard of him!

Two dads.

BigGee wrote:The weather looks like it is going to be awful in West Wales on Saturday afternoon, akin to the Calcutta Cup match which has the potential to make the game more of a lottery. It certainly does not look as if it is going to be a day to chuck it about.

Maybe that has influenced some of Toonie's selections.

Kinghorn better than VDM under the high ball?

Hard straight running going to be the flavour of the day, Harris and Lang?

Steele maybe has the better kicking game than Horne?

If the selections are all about the conditions, then you'd think a 6-2 bench split with either Skinner or Coventry added to the bench in place of Duhan would make sense. Duhan will give a different attacking dimension to Kinghorn coming on, but if that's what you want why no George Horne, who is one of the best game changing super subs we have?

It's muddled, whichever way you cut it.

I can't say I'm completely struck by the team. I expect it will be Lang that makes way for Hastings in the second half. It seems a uniquely bland midfield though. It seems like a recipe for Russell trying to create things all on his own. I suppose with Taylor, Johnson and Hutchinson all out Townsend's options for the 12 shirt were limited. Harris is obviously the man in possession in the 13 shirt. I still think our best pairing would be Hutchinson and Jones. The pack seems good. Thomson, Ritchie and Watson is a well balanced and athletic back-row.
I reckon Wales by 5 in a lacklustre game. Scotland will be behind by 8 for most of the game and threaten a late rally.

Seems like neither team wants to lose this but tbh it's a play off for 4th in the Six Nations. It's hardly an all important game. Wouldn't be surprised to see some sparks flying at some stage though, bit of nerves and pressure getting to the players.

I think that there's an oversight here?
If Scotland win, with or without a bonus point, they can achieve third spot, depending on the France v Ireland result.
In the unliklihood that England lose to Italy, we could gain second spot.
So, in reality it is Wales desperately trying to avoid fifth place, with a best hope of fourth. Whilst we are aiming for a third or second spot.

This is Scotland remember - 3rd spot is basically our GrandSlam!

Also

Wht is Townsend - a maverick as a player such a conservative selector? He seems to have been so consistently and this selection while understandable in some ways is very conservative going for the safe options not the high risk high reward approach

TJ wrote:Wht is Townsend - a maverick as a player such a conservative selector? He seems to have been so consistently and this selection while understandable in some ways is very conservative going for the safe options not the high risk high reward approach

Perhaps because in International Sport, High risk does not usually bring high reward!

Winning is the name of the game, entertaining is a bonus

We would all rsther Scotland won tomorrow, whatever the performance

What is going to be key tomorrow in order to banish 18yrs of hurt in the land of the Dragon, Finn Russell being on form? Hogg kicking well? Mastering the conditions? Capitalising on Penalties conceded by Wales? Driving Maul? Give the ball to Darcy Graham and let him do his thing.... Run, run, run, run until he dots the ball down under the sticks?

It's tough to answer lol so I'll let you guys do that :-P.

BigGee wrote:

TJ wrote:Wht is Townsend - a maverick as a player such a conservative selector?  He seems to have been so consistently and this selection while understandable in some ways is very conservative going for the safe options not the high risk high reward approach

Perhaps because in International Sport, High risk does not usually bring high reward!

Winning is the name of the game, entertaining is a bonus

We would all rsther Scotland won tomorrow, whatever the performance

The world cup was a very sobering lesson, and I'm glad he looks to have learnt it! International rugby as all about winning, and playing fast and loose these days isn't the norm unfortunately.

RDW wrote:

BigGee wrote:

TJ wrote:Wht is Townsend - a maverick as a player such a conservative selector?  He seems to have been so consistently and this selection while understandable in some ways is very conservative going for the safe options not the high risk high reward approach

Perhaps because in International Sport, High risk does not usually bring high reward!

Winning is the name of the game, entertaining is a bonus

We would all rsther Scotland won tomorrow, whatever the performance

The world cup was a very sobering lesson, and I'm glad he looks to have learnt it! International rugby as all about winning, and playing fast and loose these days isn't the norm unfortunately.

I think we had the opposite problem at the world cup tbh. Our defence was terrible and we didn't have much in the way of bite. Toonie had opted in his own words "for experience" in out of form or injured players at the time I don't think you could get much more conservative than that. his game plan was always very prescriptive. We can hardly say we played fast and loose against Ireland! The only fast and loose game was against Japan, who drew us into that contest, not the other way around.

Anglobraveheart wrote:I think that there's an oversight here?
If Scotland win, with or without a bonus point, they can achieve third spot, depending on the France v Ireland result.
In the unliklihood that England lose to Italy, we could gain second spot.
So, in reality it is Wales desperately trying to avoid fifth place, with a best hope of fourth. Whilst we are aiming for a third or second spot.

Alright, either way it's pointless, both teams are also-rans. 5th or 3rd, who cares, it's irrelevant in terms of the bigger picture.

Highland Shaun wrote:What is going to be key tomorrow in order to banish 18yrs of hurt in the land of the Dragon, Finn Russell being on form? Hogg kicking well? Mastering the conditions? Capitalising on Penalties conceded by Wales? Driving Maul? Give the ball to Darcy Graham and let him do his thing.... Run, run, run, run until he dots the ball down under the sticks?

It's tough to answer lol so I'll let you guys do that :-P.

Win the battle up front and take advantage of Wales' profligacy in both defence and attack.

Wales will give Scotland opportunities, that much is clear from what we've seen under Pivac. However, if Scotland don't toughen up then they could end up seeing the game run away from them as you'd expect the Welsh forwards to be able to exert dominance over Scotland whereas they were on the back foot v France and England and struggled with the Irish.

We saw what the backs could do v Italy when they won the forward battle. Scotland aren't as poor as Italy but I wouldn't rule out Wales thumping Scotland by 15-20 points, either.

This one could go either way. Or 'any' way. It's a hard one to predict. The most likely scenario is a relatively high scoring, tit for tat game, where mistakes = points.

If Scotland are within 3 going in to the final 10 I can see them nabbing the win. Wales are looking soft in the middle at the moment, not sure there's the hard edge they had under Gatland to bounce back after a defeat at mess up the next opponent. The 2018 game was a good example of that. Would like for Wales to put in a similar performance, just go out there and bully the Scots. If the desire is there, the talent can do it.

The world cup was a very sobering lesson, and I'm glad he looks to have learnt it! International rugby as all about winning, and playing fast and loose these days isn't the norm unfortunately.

Surely one of the lessons from the WC is that his too conservative selections cost us in that first game against Ireland? Darcy Graham was on fire at that point but didn't get a team place?

I think he is too conservative in his selections. Sure we do not want the full batshit insanity but neither do we need to leave our best players out. DVDM. HOrnito, Jones in this welection.

I do think Wales will suffer with Biggar at 10. Perfect player to see out a game, not the one to be on from the start any more. Hope I'm proven wrong with that but just think a 10-12 axis of Biggar-Watkin is exceedingly ordinary and not international standard. That would be mid table in the English Prem, if that.

Biggar's a good player but Watkin hasn't shown he's test quality yet. You get the feeling there are some big, big games coming up where players decide their fortunes. One or two bad games and that could be out of the team for the next 12-18 months. Pivac's been very generous with opportunities and he's giving plenty of players a shot. Tompkins hasn't stepped up, there's Haloholo and Johnny Williams waiting in the wings, and if Scott Williams can stay fit he would walk in to the team at 12. If Watkin plays poorly today, it could be his last cap for a long time. If he plays well, he might leapfrog Tompkins for the 12 shirt at least.

There are bigger failings with Townsend than just selections tbh.

rugby racing and beer wrote:There are bigger failings with Townsend than just selections tbh.

Agreed, although he's proved himself in the last year to be a good recruiter, bringing in Tandy and DuPleissus has made a massive difference after the downturn when McFarland left.

I think he's like a less successful Clive Woodward figure, who knows how to pick backroom teams but is guilty of trying to overthink coaching and wanting to stamp his ego on the team. A large amount of his successes with Scotland have stemmed from previous coaching by VC, and the impact by McFarland, in my opinion.

Anyway, game day! My prediction is 20-13 to Wales, 2 tries to 1. Wales will be much tightened up and a couple of important picks will be the difference. Scotland will look solid but not spectacular and fall short. Happy to be proven wrong though!

Weather is horrible near Cardiff, wind and gusts of heavy rain. Hopefully it is better down Llanelli otherwise this will be similar to the England game all over again

Looking forward to a slugfest.

Horrible early this morning but has brightened up. Fingers crossed the pitch has drained well and we can get a good game

Tipuric out with tonsillitis. James Davies now starts, Aaron Wainwright now on the bench.

Thats a shame - I was looking forward to tips V Watson at the breakdown.

Shame about the weather - why is it not at the millennium stadium? Both teams would prefer a dry pitch and ball I would think

Big loss, Tipuric is probably the most important player in Pivac's gameplan. It changes the game completely now. Davies can do the things Tipuric does in the loose but he doesn't have anywhere near his natural fitness, athleticism, or physical prowess. Likewise, he doesn't offer the same defensive solidity.

It's not at the Millennium because it's been and being used as an emergency field hosptial.

Heart says Wales by 10

Head says Scotland by 8

Don't know what the weather is like but I predict a Scottish win by 4 points.

Narrow win for the Scots, me thinks, but the bookmakers reckon they're only a 2/1 chance.

Either way, should be a good game. Glad the weather's brightened up.

Russell misses the first kick at goal

Decent start by Scotland though

and Finn finds his range on the second attempt

3-0 Scotland

Is that Welshman Andrew Brace reffing?

Well this is all a bit scrappy. It doesn’t look that windy but the ball is going all over the place