The Trump Presidency

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Well we'll wait and see about Arizona. Pundits seem to think it's a done deal; they don't seem to have considered it's only Election Day votes left to count.

Ohio called, but Texas and Florida not, which is very poor. Iowa should be called soon for Trump. Trump with healthy leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...he needs 'em if Arizona's going blue.

Georgia seems to be faltering for Trump, but he's still ahead for now. North Carolina's probably in recount territory. unless Trump has more votes to secure it.

This mainstream media bias is quite something. Trump 49-48 ahead in Montana, 50% voted...oh yeah, that's too close to call. Trump 50-48 ahead in Virginia, 76% voted....oh yeah, we're calling that for Biden.

king_carlos wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Trump's campaign requesting a recount in Wisconsin. And so it begins (continues?)

If 10.5k votes go from Democrat to Republican, out of about 3.2 million ballots, the state flips.

The 2016 Wi recount brought a 131 vote swing did it not? 10.5k would be enormous.

It would be mammoth, yes.

lostinwales wrote:

king_carlos wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Trump's campaign requesting a recount in Wisconsin. And so it begins (continues?)

If 10.5k votes go from Democrat to Republican, out of about 3.2 million ballots, the state flips.

After the 2016 Wi recount brought a 131 vote swing did it not? 10.5k would be enormous.

It's not going to happen. Trump is done, it is just a matter of time now.

Done in Wisconsin, yes, but not done overall. Steady on. He's still 15/8 to win, which is roughly the same as it was this time yesterday.

Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona all still in play - Trump wins all of those (and he's ahead in three) and he wins overall.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Trump will throw money and lawyers into it.
He is probably hoping to buy off some lower court judges to get it sent to the SCOTUS where they will side with him regardless of the law.*

*I have no evidence of this, I'm just following Trump's lead in making up whatever I want to.

Big questions over where the money might come from to do this.

I assume both parties have a break glass fund if they need it for this stuff. Not sure Trump will be allowed to use it for this though.

CNN has retracted Arizona from Biden I think

Well that's pretty sensible because Arizona's well in-play, even though you'd have to favour a Biden win at this point.

Trump needs to win the remaining votes by about 20% to carry the state and, according to Nate Silver's estimates, the remaining votes have about a 19% advantage to the Republicans in terms of Party ID. So it could be close.

SkyBet make Trump an 11/4 outsider to win Arizona. I do think he's an outsider, but not by that much. And of course, if Trump wins Arizona the race gets blown wide open, with just Georgia and Pennsylvania and North Carolina required after that.

Nevada hasn't been called yet...Big Hispanic population there...Hispanics haven't been too kind to Joe in this Election in some States.

All the votes left to count in Nevada will be either late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots - which indicates Biden is still favourite to win there.

Trump going to court over Pennsylvania - desperate measures again, indicting he is very worried about losing there.

The make up of what's left in NV is obviously unclear or they would call it....

If Trump can stay within 1% of Biden in Penn along with Wisconsin this race will finish in December after sign offs and recounts..

Michigan looks like a 1.5%ish defeat...NC and GA have to go for him and they may.

Yes, Nevada would be quite a surprise if it went red, though Trump's still in touch there.

Michigan soon to be called for Biden I think. Trump's Georgia lead down to 78k, but he's hanging in for now. And still a 52-46 advantage for Trump in Pennsylvania with just 17% of the votes left. That one will be incredibly close.

No extra news from North Carolina, so can't confirm it for Trump yet.

CNN calling Michigan for Biden.

Last few vestiges of rural Penn coming in to try to give Trump a cushion.

320k lead going into the bloodbath of the final 800k ballots..

Philadelphia wall about to come down on his head..

Not sure it's enough of a bumper for Tango Man.

Michigan could be anywhere from 60k to 100k lead according to reports

Either is out of viable recount range

Biden won Michigan quite a while ago, given that sizeable lead

All over really, just media dragging this out now.

Trump takes Georgia and North Carolina then Penn and Wisconsin put him over..

He gets within 1% of Penn like he did with Wisconsin then the Lawyers can have fun...

Accusations of vote rigging in both Penn and Wisconsin..

Not inconceivable vote rigging has put Biden over the top... Pennsylvania is renowned for graveyard votes as Missouri is for the GOP.....The Pendergast machine used to find 10,000 dead voters at Election time... How Harry Truman got to Washington

Vote rigging is one of the reasons I struggle to call the US a great democracy.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Not inconceivable vote rigging has put Biden over the top

I liked how the count stopped for an hour in some of the key Democratic-controlled states. Then when it resumed there was suddenly a deluge of Biden votes.

Good to see Giuliani whinging, whining and crying afoul about vote cheating.
I don't think he'll get paid when Trump loses. That's how he treats losers. It will all end in tears I'm sure.

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Not inconceivable vote rigging has put Biden over the top

I liked how the count stopped for an hour in some of the key Democratic-controlled states. Then when it resumed there was suddenly a deluge of Biden votes.

Only Democrats do vote rigging these days. The Republicans are far to honest for that - they just go for voter suppression.

Pal Joey wrote:Good to see Giuliani whinging, whining and crying afoul about vote cheating.
I don't think he'll get paid when Trump loses. That's how he treats losers. It will all end in tears I'm sure.

Giuliani and Trump have a special relationship dating back to 9/11. ..Giuliani was immense during that episode and Trump hired people to help at Ground zero...Trump was in NY when it was hit.

Less than 1% there should be a recount and signatures should be checked.

Trump has claimed Penn, NC and Georgia. Also claiming Michigan (terms & conditions apply). If anyone needed proof he's a nutjob unfit to be President....

CNN, Fox, ABC and NBC are all calling Michigan for Biden but AP yet to announce.

Wi called for Biden.

From there Nevada and Arizona would be enough to put Biden in the White House?

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:Good to see Giuliani whinging, whining and crying afoul about vote cheating.
I don't think he'll get paid when Trump loses. That's how he treats losers. It will all end in tears I'm sure.

Giuliani and Trump have a special relationship dating back to 9/11. ..Giuliani was immense during that episode and Trump hired people to help at Ground zero...Trump was in NY when it was hit.

Less than 1% there should be a recount and signatures should be checked.

I know about their special relationship... even before 9/11.

Just saying when the inevitable happens and Joe Biden is sworn in, then that relationship will be surely tested regardless of their shared history. Look at how Trump has treated others even closer to him i.e. Fred Jr... Mary Lea. His ego and pursuit of wealth and power transcends everything (including Rudi G.) as we all know. Just give it a few months... you'll see.

Before Covid Trump had great job figures and standard of living rises in many States....More blacks were taken out of poverty than with Obama.

Trump as an outsider did an amazing job to win the WH being outspent like he was....

Greatest achievement since Hickory Jackson turned over the establishment in the 1820s.

Give Trump some credit.

Think Donny might have some pressing concerns in Germany if he gets turfed out.

Pennsylvania might be fairly comfortable for Biden, Trump's lead is being swallowed up.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Before Covid Trump had great job figures and standard of living rises in many States....More blacks were taken out of poverty than with Obama.

Trump as an outsider did an amazing job to win the WH being outspent like he was....

Greatest achievement since Hickory Jackson turned over the establishment in the 1820s.

Give Trump some credit.

He did do quite well to win in 2016. He recognised that trust in politicians was at an all-time low, that the elite establishment was (and is) ruining America, saw an opportunity to paint himself as anti-establishment (even though he himself was part of the elite problem) and went for it. He fooled enough of the people enough of the time, which was probably not that difficult under the circumstances. I'm fairly sure that if it had been a Republican incumbent he would have run as a Democrat.

Trump is too big to go under....It's known as TBTF theory in the US...Might not be in the AIG league but he is big enough.

king_carlos wrote:CNN, Fox, ABC and NBC are all calling Michigan for Biden but AP yet to announce.

Wi called for Biden.

From there Nevada and Arizona would be enough to put Biden in the White House?

Yes, pending recounts/legal action. Nevada's not resuming counting until tomorrow, I think.

Duty281 wrote:

king_carlos wrote:CNN, Fox, ABC and NBC are all calling Michigan for Biden but AP yet to announce.

Wi called for Biden.

From there Nevada and Arizona would be enough to put Biden in the White House?

Yes, pending recounts/legal action. Nevada's not resuming counting until tomorrow, I think.

I think they have been counting but are not revealing any further results until tomorrow. I might be wrong.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Before Covid Trump had great job figures and standard of living rises in many States....More blacks were taken out of poverty than with Obama.

Trump as an outsider did an amazing job to win the WH being outspent like he was....

Greatest achievement since Hickory Jackson turned over the establishment in the 1820s.

Give Trump some credit.

He would have cruised this election had it not been for Covid. Even if this campaign had run for another two weeks, he'd have taken it.

He's a formidable political campaigner with amazing energy. And his figures among non-white voters at this election have been highly impressive for a Republican candidate.

A shame that his Presidential achievements have been often dwarfed by his foolish behaviour.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

king_carlos wrote:CNN, Fox, ABC and NBC are all calling Michigan for Biden but AP yet to announce.

Wi called for Biden.

From there Nevada and Arizona would be enough to put Biden in the White House?

Yes, pending recounts/legal action. Nevada's not resuming counting until tomorrow, I think.

I think they have been counting but are not revealing any further results until tomorrow. I might be wrong.

Ah, yes.

In the wee hours on Tuesday, the Nevada secretary of state’s elections division tweeted that further results would not be announced till 9 a.m. Thursday.

“But we now recognize there is a lot of national and statewide interest in the results, and we are going to release updates as they come in,” secretary of state spokeswoman Jennifer Russell told NBC News. She did not give a specific time for announcing the updated results.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-04-trump-biden-election-results-n1246346/ncrd1246446#liveBlogHeader

Pal Joey wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:Good to see Giuliani whinging, whining and crying afoul about vote cheating.
I don't think he'll get paid when Trump loses. That's how he treats losers. It will all end in tears I'm sure.

Giuliani and Trump have a special relationship dating back to 9/11. ..Giuliani was immense during that episode and Trump hired people to help at Ground zero...Trump was in NY when it was hit.

Less than 1% there should be a recount and signatures should be checked.

I know about their special relationship... even before 9/11.

Just saying when the inevitable happens and Joe Biden is sworn in, then that relationship will be surely tested regardless of their shared history. Look at how Trump has treated others even closer to him i.e. Fred Jr... Mary Lea. His ego and pursuit of wealth and power transcends everything (including Rudi G.) as we all know. Just give it a few months... you'll see.

You were mocking Rudy....Just pointing out that New Englanders not just New Yorkers have huge admiration for him and rightly so..

The only prospective GOP candidate for President that polled ahead of a Democrat in Connecticut...New York...New Hampshire in years when he toyed with a run in 2008.

But it's okay we can disagree...You don't like him that's fine.

Guiliani did a very good job after 9/11, but becoming so entwined with Trump recently appears to have warped his judgment.

Do we reckon he’d run again in 2024?

JuliusHMarx wrote:Guiliani did a very good job after 9/11, but becoming so entwined with Trump recently appears to have warped his judgment.

And his ability to tuck his shirt in when standing up.

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Before Covid Trump had great job figures and standard of living rises in many States....More blacks were taken out of poverty than with Obama.

Trump as an outsider did an amazing job to win the WH being outspent like he was....

Greatest achievement since Hickory Jackson turned over the establishment in the 1820s.

Give Trump some credit.

He would have cruised this election had it not been for Covid.

But he f*cked it up totally re: Covid, leading to far more deaths (and job losses) than was necessary, which is a pretty serious mistake compared to, well, pretty much everything.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Before Covid Trump had great job figures and standard of living rises in many States....More blacks were taken out of poverty than with Obama.

Trump as an outsider did an amazing job to win the WH being outspent like he was....

Greatest achievement since Hickory Jackson turned over the establishment in the 1820s.

Give Trump some credit.

He would have cruised this election had it not been for Covid.

But he f*cked it up totally re: Covid, leading to far more deaths (and job losses) than was necessary, which is a pretty serious mistake compared to, well, pretty much everything.

Might be more appropriate to say he would have cruised it had it not been for his total mishandling of COVID.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Guiliani did a very good job after 9/11, but becoming so entwined with Trump recently appears to have warped his judgment.

I agree he has seen better days....So has Trump.

Trump won't run in 2024 Olly... He will be 80 and the cheeseburgers and Coke will have taken it's toll.

Hard work running for President...Trump has done well to survive the last two weeks..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Before Covid Trump had great job figures and standard of living rises in many States....More blacks were taken out of poverty than with Obama.

Trump as an outsider did an amazing job to win the WH being outspent like he was....

Greatest achievement since Hickory Jackson turned over the establishment in the 1820s.

Give Trump some credit.

True... he did all of that and I've never seen any US presidential candidate work so hard in the lead up... that was truly phenomenal. No doubting his love for his country and his genuine concerns for the USA's role in the global state of play. After all the bravado, chest-beating and also some of the nasty personal attacks on other people / places... I still believe he only wants the best for the American people.

However, he is a massive risk taker and daring performer... or entertainer as well. He was probably what the world needed to question the status quo, challenge the so-called politically correct social norms and shake things up - including the Democrats... who I think still haven't got things right even if Joe Biden wins.

So in that respect, Trump has performed a very important role. Personally (and maybe cynically with Trump as POTUS ?) I'm a firm believer in a President having 2 full terms to carry out a particular agenda, however in Trump's case he certainly pushed it to the limit. Good and bad? Maybe so. Definitely so actually.

I'm always thinking about the bigger picture in global terms, so whilst I admire Trump for his tough stance on China, NK, Iran, etc and his valid concern about other nations/blocks not pulling their weight and paying their way more (fair enough) I do think we needed someone like Trump to call it as it is... and let certain other powerful nations think twice before they assert their own authority.

Call it a bluff or whatever but that ham-fisted approach works even though many of us think that it's too undiplomatic and stirs up undesired reactions. However, the alternative is also being run roughshod by other dominant nations unfortunately.

Appeasement is a very fine line - it can easily backfire in the blink of an eye! Complacency and misplaced trust can come back to bite.
I just hope Joe / Kamala don't go too far the other way and allow "The Enemy Within".

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:Do we reckon he’d run again in 2024?

Probably too old. but I wouldn't rule it out. Anything's possible with him.

And I still wouldn't rule him out winning a second term this election, either.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Before Covid Trump had great job figures and standard of living rises in many States....More blacks were taken out of poverty than with Obama.

Trump as an outsider did an amazing job to win the WH being outspent like he was....

Greatest achievement since Hickory Jackson turned over the establishment in the 1820s.

Give Trump some credit.

He would have cruised this election had it not been for Covid.

But he f*cked it up totally re: Covid, leading to far more deaths (and job losses) than was necessary, which is a pretty serious mistake compared to, well, pretty much everything.

True.

Duty281 wrote:

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:Do we reckon he’d run again in 2024?

Probably too old. but I wouldn't rule it out. Anything's possible with him.

And I still wouldn't rule him out winning a second term this election, either.

Bet he has a new Wife if he does....Melania is getting a little bit old in the tooth....But no he will start feeling his age as well as other Women..

Rubio wins in 2024...

AP have called Michigan for Biden. Penn is looking closer and closer. AP not shifting on calling Arizona.

Eyes on Nevada basically.

Penn looking lost for Trump.

Georgia down to 150k votes left....With heavy blue Atlanta left and Trump just 55k ahead....

Going to the wire.

If Trump can't hold on to Georgia and NC, no legal action in the world will save him.

Biden needs about 71% of the remaining votes to win Georgia, which seems maybe a little too steep...and the counting won't be finished until tomorrow. Yay.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Before Covid Trump had great job figures and standard of living rises in many States....More blacks were taken out of poverty than with Obama.

Trump as an outsider did an amazing job to win the WH being outspent like he was....

Greatest achievement since Hickory Jackson turned over the establishment in the 1820s.

Give Trump some credit.

He would have cruised this election had it not been for Covid.

But he f*cked it up totally re: Covid, leading to far more deaths (and job losses) than was necessary, which is a pretty serious mistake compared to, well, pretty much everything.

True.

I believe that in times of crisis great leaders unite people. To Trump that's an anathema - he thrives on division - it's his M.O. to divide. Imagine if from day one he'd gone with "Wear a mask. Save American lives. Save American jobs" - apart from being true*, how could the Democrats have argued against it? They'd have had to back him and his ratings would have gone way up. Instead he wanted to be anti-establishment/anti-science and make it a divisive us vs them issue. It's not that he couldn't unite America, it's that he didn't want to. It's cost him the election and a great deal of his reputation.

*OK, not 100% proven at the time, but the research was there to a large degree.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Before Covid Trump had great job figures and standard of living rises in many States....More blacks were taken out of poverty than with Obama.

Trump as an outsider did an amazing job to win the WH being outspent like he was....

Greatest achievement since Hickory Jackson turned over the establishment in the 1820s.

Give Trump some credit.

He would have cruised this election had it not been for Covid.

But he f*cked it up totally re: Covid, leading to far more deaths (and job losses) than was necessary, which is a pretty serious mistake compared to, well, pretty much everything.

True.

I believe that in times of crisis great leaders unite people. To Trump that's an anathema - he thrives on division - it's his M.O. to divide. Imagine if from day one he'd gone with "Wear a mask. Save American lives. Save American jobs" - apart from being true*, how could the Democrats have argued against it? They'd have had to back him and his ratings would have gone way up. Instead he wanted to be anti-establishment/anti-science and make it a divisive us vs them issue. It's not that he couldn't unite America, it's that he didn't want to. It's cost him the election and a great deal of his reputation.

*OK, not 100% proven at the time, but the research was there to a large degree.

I can agree to a point, particularly that Trump didn't want to unite America, but he'd have still been hammered on job losses/cases/deaths no matter how well a job he did. With a crisis like Covid, in political electioneering terms it's always better to be the outsider than the incumbent.

And whilst Trump may be responsible for some of the division we're currently seeing in the USA, I don't think there's any current politician capable of uniting America.

Ok, so we're still waiting on the same few states. Makes me grateful for our electoral system, all the counting done overnight swiftly.

Right, Trump needs Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Alaska and one or both of Arizona/Nevada, and he wins a second term.

He's 60k up in Georgia with 5% left. It's a coin flip, really, but I think Trump holds it. 196k up in Penn. with 12% left. He probably doesn't hold this one, but it will go down to the thinnest margins. North Carolina and Alaska look safe for Trump.

Arizona and Nevada he's down by a bit. I think, from Trump's perspective,there's room for optimism in Arizona. Nevada looks like it's going comfortably blue, barring something extraordinary.

Australia has a very experienced and astute election expert who usually gets these things right ...he has given Arizona to Biden , leaving him just needing Nevada to wrap it up. Close there but you'd think it will stay blue   ... Even if it won't be official for a day or two. So without wishing to jinx him I fancy Biden is heading for the White House. Pending the legal challenges



I'm a little surprised at some of the early claims that were made for a Trump victory , to be honest. Always seemed premature to me even though he was clearly doing better than polling predicted. Some of the betting odds quoted seem off the planet.

I actually started to expect a Biden win after their respective appearances last night. Biden appeared fairly relaxed and genuinely confident ; but Trump - despite claiming he had already won - really didn't strike me as someone who was sure of his chances. (Given his usual bumptious style , I thought he was uncharacteristically restrained! ) The legal threats were expected. I had the feeling his numbers men had warned him things were looking a bit dodgy for him.

Watching Arizona - where Trump has been clawing back the lead today - and Georgia - trending the other direction - still , in case of a late twist...