The Trump Presidency

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Well we'll wait and see about Arizona. Pundits seem to think it's a done deal; they don't seem to have considered it's only Election Day votes left to count.

Ohio called, but Texas and Florida not, which is very poor. Iowa should be called soon for Trump. Trump with healthy leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...he needs 'em if Arizona's going blue.

Georgia seems to be faltering for Trump, but he's still ahead for now. North Carolina's probably in recount territory. unless Trump has more votes to secure it.

This mainstream media bias is quite something. Trump 49-48 ahead in Montana, 50% voted...oh yeah, that's too close to call. Trump 50-48 ahead in Virginia, 76% voted....oh yeah, we're calling that for Biden.

I think this time yesterday, it was looking pretty rosy for Trump. Held his ground, Biden was needing to flip multiple states Trump was solidly ahead in.

Then the mail ins came in at probably a rate of close to 80% Biden.

To sum it all up, you’ve got Trump supporters in Arizona chanting “count the votes” and in Pennsylvania chanting “stop the count”

It's a pretty sad indictment of how partisan politics is

Meanwhile Trump has closed to within 70k of Biden in Arizona. It's gonna be pretty close in the end

I'll miss Trump in a perverse way, if nothing else it's been entertaining to watch.

It was over about two hours before they called Biden’s press conference last night. Just a tsunami of blue mail-in’s are all that’s left now.

US politics will certainly take a downturn in interest, going forward.

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:To sum it all up, you’ve got Trump supporters in Arizona chanting “count the votes” and in Pennsylvania chanting “stop the count”

Take away a letter and they've got it pretty much spot on.

GSC wrote:I think this time yesterday, it was looking pretty rosy for Trump. Held his ground, Biden was needing to flip multiple states Trump was solidly ahead in.

Then the mail ins came in at probably a rate of close to 80% Biden.

Ironically (quite deliciously in fact) Trump riling about mail in ballots probably led to fewer Republicans voting by mail, hence the even bigger swing for Biden.

So the update from last night:
Michigan called for Biden. Currently only a narrow lead but with a remaining tranche of blue votes.
Wisconsin: Biden 20K votes ahead with essentially everything counted. Trump side have requested a recount (unsurprising and not unreasonable). Historically, recounts have only moved the vote numbers by a few hundred, so not likely to be enough to swing it for Trump

Arizona - Biden's lead narrowing. Will end up close, but slightly favoured to hold on (mail in votes here not expected to be as Democrat-favouring as most other states)

Georgia - Trump lead narrowing. Will end up close - some pundit calls either way

Nevada - Slight lead for Biden (7K votes), but with the remaining mail in votes expected to break his way.

North Carolina - Trump ahead by about 77K votes. Only some mail in ballots to count, in a state which accepts ballots up to 10 November provided they were post marked by election day. These are likely to close the gap, but not expected to be quite enough to get Biden ahead, but the results won't be finalised until next week.

Pennsylvania - As discussed earlier, Trump had a substantial lead earlier but it is eroding quickly. Remaining votes to count are mostly from Philadelphia and mail in ballots (still counting those received by election day, so none of the potentially disputed late-arriving ones), so strongly for the Democrats. At one point yesterday it was suggested Biden needed 75% of the remaining votes, and these reported so far have split his way at closer to 80%, so he's on course for a narrow win.

Electoral college:

BBC has Biden ahead 243-214 with Michigan called for Biden and Alaska still outstanding (counting in Alaska is different - Trump will take it though).

I think it's safe to give Biden Wisconsin, for a further 10 EC votes, takes him to 253.
What does he need to win (i.e at least 17 to reach 270? - I'm assuming Trump takes NC):
Pennsylvania alone - 20 votes
Arizona + Georgia - 27 votes
Georgia + Nevada - 22 votes
Arizona + Nevada - 17 votes (270 v 268 EC!)

Georgia alone would be a nightmare scenario (looks unlikely) - 269 v 269 EC votes. Gets thrown to a straight vote between State delegations, which Trump would win.

For completeness, Biden is leading the popular vote by 3.5 million, which is projected to extend to over 7 million when all counting is finished (California counts slowly...), so about a 4% win. So the national polling looks to have been off by about 5%, but maybe more accurate in Arizona and Georgia (were expected to be close) and further off in the midwest (Wisconsin was expected around 10% for Biden, ended up <1%, similar for Michigan)

Not sure Trump's going to get within 1% in Penn

Georgia is very tight now with some of the bigger counties still counting trending Biden. It might flip.

Regardless of whether it goes blue this election Georgia becoming a new battleground should make a huge difference in elections going forward.

Apparently Biden needs (or needed last night) 64% of the remaining vote in Georgia, with this being predominantly urban / suburban and so likely to favour Biden. I suspect this could end up the closest state of all.

The big picture though currently looks like Trump has narrowly failed to pull off the same trick as 2016, in winning a number of states (Wi, Mi, Pa) by inches, sufficient to win the EC. Looks like he's going to be on the wrong side of similar margins this time - certainly is for Wisconsin and Michigan.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:Good to see Giuliani whinging, whining and crying afoul about vote cheating.
I don't think he'll get paid when Trump loses. That's how he treats losers. It will all end in tears I'm sure.

Giuliani and Trump have a special relationship dating back to 9/11. ..Giuliani was immense during that episode and Trump hired people to help at Ground zero...Trump was in NY when it was hit.

Less than 1% there should be a recount and signatures should be checked.

I know about their special relationship... even before 9/11.

Just saying when the inevitable happens and Joe Biden is sworn in, then that relationship will be surely tested regardless of their shared history. Look at how Trump has treated others even closer to him i.e. Fred Jr... Mary Lea. His ego and pursuit of wealth and power transcends everything (including Rudi G.) as we all know. Just give it a few months... you'll see.

You were mocking Rudy....Just pointing out that New Englanders not just New Yorkers have huge admiration for him and rightly so..

The only prospective GOP candidate for President that polled ahead of a Democrat in Connecticut...New York...New Hampshire in years when he toyed with a run in 2008.

But it's okay we can disagree...You don't like him that's fine.

Immense in 9/11 to fiddling with his microp-hone in front of a young woman. He just comes across as a nut job these days

His press conference last night was just sad.

dummy_half wrote:For completeness, Biden is leading the popular vote by 3.5 million, which is projected to  extend to over 7 million when all counting is finished (California counts slowly...), so about a 4% win. So the national polling looks to have been off by about 5%, but maybe more accurate in Arizona and Georgia (were expected to be close) and further off in the midwest (Wisconsin was expected around 10% for Biden, ended up <1%, similar for Michigan)

Yes, the polling was accurate in forecasting tight races for Arizona and Georgia. Trump had huge polling momentum in Michigan, as well as good early vote numbers in both there and Wisconsin, so I'm not surprised those races were tight.

Georgia is so close, it'll be mired in legal challenges and recounts if Trump loses. Something like 50k* ballots left with Trump in an 18.5k lead.  Same in Pennsylvania, with Trump unlikely to hold on.

Alaska and North Carolina should be called for Trump, but news agencies have shown a reluctance to call Trump states throughout the election, and have been all too eager to call for Biden at the earliest stage. North Carolina won't finish until the 12th.

Arizona's probably going down to the wire.

*25k if you believe the sec. of state. 50k if you believe some Arizona news outlet. 75k if you believe Democrat figures.

I take the threats of litigation and recounts somewhat with a pinch of salt. If Biden ends up with a 60 EV lead I suspect people will start abandoning the Trump ship if he ends up having to overturn multiple states, and his campaign notably ran out of funds to advertise so I doubt they can sustain mass litigation and afford recounts for too long.

Also think Trump wouldn't be too upset with an outcome where he doesn't have to be president anymore and can claim he only lost due to fraud and cheating.

Duty
Alaska just has a funny process for counting. Nothing to do with a reluctance to call the winner (hell, could have called it before the vote...)
NC is still close enough to justify not calling it - Trump ahead by about 77K with about 280K votes to count that are expected to favour Biden. Not likely to flip but not impossible.

Arizona SoS now confirming about 50K votes to go

Trump up 19k in Georgia with 50k to go

60 EV lead is just two States....Penn...Wis

I suspect however it will be more.

Georgia looking good for Biden...Just NC and I think Alaska left for Trump..

Finish 231 - 307...

Trump needs Georgia or Arizona to continue really ...Both looking tough.

GSC wrote:I take the threats of litigation and recounts somewhat with a pinch of salt. If Biden ends up with a 60 EV lead I suspect people will start abandoning the Trump ship if he ends up having to overturn multiple states, and his campaign notably ran out of funds to advertise so I doubt they can sustain mass litigation and afford recounts for too long.

Also think Trump wouldn't be too upset with an outcome where he doesn't have to be president anymore and can claim he only lost due to fraud and cheating.

If Biden wins Penn outside the 1% margin then the noise will die down from all but Trump's twitter account.

Wisconsin will see a recount but the likelihood of overturning Biden's margin is negligible.

Be funny if biden calls a recount in Georgia after all this

Think Wisconsin joy for Trump lies in getting access to the ballots on the recount through judicial means..

I imagine Wisconsin  kept Trump observers away not just because of Covid.

However in Georgia tens of thousand of  blacks moaning they weren't on lists at polling stations.

It works both ways

Trump going to court in Nevada...Found at least 10k votes from People that aren't registered there.

Imagine he will lose by five times that anyway.

What's very interesting is that the presenters on Fox News (the actual news presenters, at least) are not going along with the Trump team's 'fraud / rigging' narrative. McEnany was interviewed yesterday, Pam Bondi today, and both were really struggling to make a case. It's like Fox can see the writing on the wall.

They get around that by letting Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, Greg Gutfield etc insinuate robbery on their 'Commentary' shows....Sadly the nutter Trish Regan is off Fox news these days...she was hot if stupid.

After this is all over the Democrats need to ask themselves how the most unpopular President going into an Election since polling began....

Has come so close to winning....

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio should have been washouts....The Dems will have to move left over the next four years...Tough work though as they messed the House elections up big style.

Beer

BBQ

Freedom

Keith Lemon

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:They get around that by letting Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, Greg Gutfield etc insinuate robbery on their 'Commentary' shows....Sadly the nutter Trish Regan is off Fox news these days...she was hot if stupid.

After this is all over the Democrats need to ask themselves how the most unpopular President going into an Election since polling began....

Has come so close to winning....

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio should have been washouts....The Dems will have to move left over the next four years...Tough work though as they messed the House elections up big style.

I know you are very disparaging of Democrat efforts, but they have managed to get more people voting for them than has ever happened before. Of course Trump has mobilised his support too, but voter numbers indicate that somewhere along the way both sides got something right.

You could look at it from that point of view but think the reality is that both sides got it wrong; the Democrat vote didn't mobilise because of Biden it mobilised purely to stop Trump.

lostinwales wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:They get around that by letting Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, Greg Gutfield etc insinuate robbery on their 'Commentary' shows....Sadly the nutter Trish Regan is off Fox news these days...she was hot if stupid.

After this is all over the Democrats need to ask themselves how the most unpopular President going into an Election since polling began....

Has come so close to winning....

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio should have been washouts....The Dems will have to move left over the next four years...Tough work though as they messed the House elections up big style.

I know you are very disparaging of Democrat efforts, but they have managed to get more people voting for them than has ever happened before. Of course Trump has mobilised his support too, but voter numbers indicate that somewhere along the way both sides got something right.

May got more votes than Blair did in the massive landslide in 1997...........She also managed to get Corbyn the biggest rise in Labour vote share since 1945.......May lost her majority.

Corbyn had ratings as bad as Trump...

GSC wrote:Trump up 19k in Georgia with 50k to go

They've found some more votes now. We've had about 30k votes since the '50k to go' mark; now it's estimated there's still 60-105k votes left.

Trump's lead below 15k now.

He was losing Georgia anyway....But lawsuit arriving soon.

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Trump up 19k in Georgia with 50k to go

They've found some more votes now. We've had about 30k votes since the '50k to go' mark; now it's estimated there's still 60-105k votes left.

Trump's lead below 15k now.

Good that they are double-checking to ensure that all votes are counted and not missing any out.

So a recap:

Arizona - No new vote results expected to be announced until 02:00 GMT. Close race here.
Nevada - Just had some new results announced. Seemed to cement if for Biden who now has a near 12k lead.
Georgia - Meant to be finished about 40 minutes ago. Now we don't know.
Pennsylvania - Days and days left. Biden favourite, not massively so, still some Election Day ballots to count.
NC - The 12th.

Nevada's essentially irrelevant, Trump needs all 4 of the other states.

Could be embarrassing for Fox if everyone else calls Nevada. Then they'd either have to uncall Arizona or declare Biden the winner.

Duty281 wrote:So a recap:

Arizona - No new vote results expected to be announced until 02:00 GMT. Close race here.
Nevada - Just had some new results announced. Seemed to cement if for Biden who now has a near 12k lead.
Georgia - Meant to be finished about 40 minutes ago. Now we don't know.
Pennsylvania - Days and days left. Biden favourite, not massively so, still some Election Day ballots to count.
NC - The 12th.

Nevada's essentially irrelevant, Trump needs all 4 of the other states.

Nevada matters to Biden, as with it + any one other he's over the line.

dummy_half wrote:

Duty281 wrote:So a recap:

Arizona - No new vote results expected to be announced until 02:00 GMT. Close race here.
Nevada - Just had some new results announced. Seemed to cement if for Biden who now has a near 12k lead.
Georgia - Meant to be finished about 40 minutes ago. Now we don't know.
Pennsylvania - Days and days left. Biden favourite, not massively so, still some Election Day ballots to count.
NC - The 12th.

Nevada's essentially irrelevant, Trump needs all 4 of the other states.

Nevada matters to Biden, as with it + any one other he's over the line.

Yeah, fair point actually. If Trump wins Georgia/Penn/NC/Nevada, but loses Arizona, he gets over 270. So not quite irrelevant, though Trump's chances of taking Nevada seem to be very slim at this moment.

Secretary of state in Pennsylvania estimates there are 500,000 ballots left to count. If accurate, Biden needs 62%+ of the vote to win it.

Very precise number of 47,277 ballots left to count in Georgia. Trump currently leads by the equally precise 12,835. So Biden needs the rough, and not at all precise, figure of around 64% of the remaining ballots to take Georgia.

Georgia's going to a recount no matter what then . Biden probably has to ask if he loses with Trump going after votes elsewhere.

Pennsylvania should still be a comfortable Biden win. Mail ins are well above the 62% mark so far

This is a painfully slow, drawn-out process now, that will ultimately reveal what we already knew about 24 hours ago. A Biden victory.

Just John wrote:This is a painfully slow, drawn-out process now, that will ultimately reveal what we already knew about 24 hours ago. A Biden victory.

Just imagine, if by some fortune, Trump took Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania...we'd have to wait another 7 days for the final scores from NC, which would decide the result.

Duty281 wrote:

Just John wrote:This is a painfully slow, drawn-out process now, that will ultimately reveal what we already knew about 24 hours ago. A Biden victory.

Just imagine, if by some fortune, Trump took Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania...we'd have to wait another 7 days for the final scores from NC, which would decide the result.

Hopefully not given the growing feeling that a lot of things will be on fire by then.

Trump once again prematurely and incorrectly announcing his victory a minute ago won't help.

It's a tense situation and Trump will undoubtedly keep prodding the hornets nest with his stick.

Trump's lead in Georgia now down to 3,635 with about 21k votes remaining. Biden still on course if he gets 60% of the remaining vote.

Pennsylvania now all but confirmed for Biden, which will take him over 270. Trump will need some divine inspiration to win this state. Trump cited Jesus Christ as being the most famous man in the world at one of his rallies, so it may be time for payback?

Georgia is nearly Biden's, as all those extra votes have nearly tipped the balance. Trump is making inroads to Arizona, but not big enough ones. At least not at the moment.

Should be over* today, most networks should call Pennsylvania for Biden when Trump's lead vanishes.

*Then the lawyers get involved.

Biden takes the lead in Georgia

It's almost as if they are counting all the votes and then the person with the most wins - what sort of fair and free election is that!?