Scotland v Ireland 6N Championship Sunday 14th march 2021

Scotland v Ireland
6N Championship

14th March 2021
BT Murrayfield
Edinburgh
KO 15.00


Well we are getting to the business end of the championship and we have two sides who need a win.

Scotland started very brightly in their first game, ending their Twickenham hoodoo at long last, then managed to lose a game they were winning comfortably against Wales, have all the old doubts about the steel of this Scotland side, who can look very good when on song, returned?

Ireland did not have a good start to the tournament and no one will be convinced by a strong win over Italy either, which should really be a given atm They have not really found their style yet under Farrell and still perhaps seem to reliant on their old stagers and be a little reluctant to move on to the next generation.

So in effect, both sides seem a bit fragile still, which might make this a fascinating contest.

Scotland don't have a good record against Ireland in recent times and the lack of a crowd won't give much, if any advantage to the home side. On that basis you would have to fancy Ireland for a narrow victory, though I would imagine it will be close.

I think we might see a scotland team with not many changes, something along these lines, with the highlight hopefully being seeing Dobie win his first cap off the bench:

1. Sutherland
2. Turner
3. Nel
4. Cummings
5. Gray J
6. Ritchie
7. Watson
8. Fagerson M
9. Price
10. Russell
11. VDM
12. Johnson
13. Harris
14. Maitland
15. Hogg

Subs:

Keeble
Cherry
Berghan
Skinner
Haining
Dobie (a first cap off the bench)
Lang
Jones H

I agree with your team Biggee. Skinner on the bench is a natural replacement for Gray.

Shame that Ireland have started showing some form again and will be absolutely desperate to win this!

RDW wrote:I agree with your team Biggee. Skinner on the bench is a natural replacement for Gray.

Shame that Ireland have started showing some form again and will be absolutely desperate to win this!

Still think we SHOULD win. Should being the operative word, in the way we should have beaten Wales

RDW wrote:I agree with your team Biggee. Skinner on the bench is a natural replacement for Gray.

Shame that Ireland have started showing some form again and will be absolutely desperate to win this!

Still think we SHOULD win. Should being the operative word, in the way we should have beaten Wales

It's always a pain knowing despite Scotland's improvements they're constantly playing catch up with England, Wales and Ireland until we win a triple crown or six nations title. Ireland won fairly easily against us in the Autumn so they're obvious favourites.

I think this will be another tight game though. If Scotland can show some grit when things go wrong and show they can work their way out of a tough situation to regain control I'll be happy. It was a killer blow against Wales to allow them back into the game and then concede a red card. Can't allow Ireland the same luxury if Scotland manage to get ahead.

Ireland looked quite loose at times against Italy which would suit Scotland a lot more than the usual tight and frustrating forwards based game Ireland like to play. The Scottish attack is looking much better than the Autumn so hopefully Hogg, DVDM, Maitland and Russell can shine. Will Connors looks very dangerous at the moment and Ringrose is back to his best in the midfield. I'd love to see him go up against Jones, they're very similar players.

Kebble, Turner, Nel
Cummings, J Gray
Ritchie, Watson
Fagerson
Price,Russell
Lang,Jones
DVDM,Maitland
Hogg

R: Cherry, Sutherland, Berghan, Haining, Skinner, Dobie, VDW, Harris

That would be my side for this one. A powerful bench to help get Scotland over the line. Harris to cover 12/13 and Jones to cover Wing/FB rewarded with a start for his good form.

Ireland are definitely the favourites until we beat them. They seem to have our number even as they have struggled. Russell should even it up a bit as we have struggled to put tries on Ireland in 2020 when we have applied pressure (first half was 11 - 9 to Ireland but if memory serves we were on top in the first half hour) and he was missing for both contests. If our forwards can continue to stand up well and we can get back to the lineout performance of the first game, we are in with a shout.

Can't really disagree with BG's side. S Johnson has had a good couple of months at IC for Glasgow and really should be ahead of Lang. Other than that, it is hard to see which incumbents can be unseated except the enforced changes.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/56341627

Best seems to agree Scotland are tougher to beat now because their pack has improved. Scotland will still be dominated if they don't show up though.

I'm sure both sides are pretty fired up for this match. Ireland will have confidence after a big win over Italy and Scotland will have a point to prove after a tough loss to Wales and missing a game thanks to Covid.

The Scotland side that dominated England in Round 1 was the best version of Scotland we've seen in the history of the Six Nations. Redpath was a big part of that with his distribution and kicking game but that is the only missing piece with the exception of Fagerson. This Scotland squad should be able to perform at that level for this fixture.

It's going to be a war of attrition, so the weather is going to be a vital factor (supposed to be few light showers up to Saturday, then a fairly sunny Sunday that's going to help us).

This is definitely an 80 min game and it could well be the bench that decides the game, go-to players like an on-form Skinner playing an hybrid Lock/BSF role as the game opens up or Dobie running at a tiring defence could swing the game

Got to say I don't feel overly comfortable hearing these Irish legends talking up Scotland and (probably) actually meaning it as opposed to the usual pre-game platitudes!

Really can't call this game at all, but Ireland are probably favourites

Hopefully lessons will be taken forward from Wales. Discipline is key. Need to take more opportunities in the red zone too and not just cards...

Still think we should win. This Ireland is not the Ireland of 2018. They are also coached by one of the least imaginative coaches in the 6Ns. If we get parity up front and keep the ball free for our backs with minimal ruck disruption, we should win. Lose our heids, give away penalties and struggle to match the Ireland back row then it'll be a long day. We're long overdue a win against Ireland, they've had too easy a ride recently, especially in 2019, but we've regained a belligerence I hadn't seen since cotter. I'm going for a 3 point win to us.

Anybody have a feel where this game will be won or lost?

I think (perhaps stating the bleeding obvious) that Turner will be our key man starting, we have to win our set piece to have any chance.

Connor/Sexton will start and we have to attack that 8/9/10 axis, legend that he is Sexton, he has lost a yard of pace, we have to get Richie on him in a flash ala Itoje on the opposition 9

flyhalffactory wrote:Anybody have a feel where this game will be won or lost?

I think (perhaps stating the bleeding obvious) that Turner will be our key man starting, we have to win our set piece to have any chance.

Connor/Sexton will start and we have to attack that 8/9/10 axis, legend that he is Sexton, he has lost a yard of pace, we have to get Richie on him in a flash ala Itoje on the opposition 9

Agree it'll be set piece and back row. We've got to do to Ireland what they've done to us so frequently for the last 10 years. Especially as they really aren't near the same force they were.

Interesting read courtesy of ultimate rugby
https://www.ultimaterugby.com/match/scotland-vs-ireland-at-bt-murrayfield-stadium-14th-mar-2021/81715

Match Facts
Ireland have lost just three of their last 19 games against Scotland in the Six Nations (W16), with each of those defeats coming by a margin of five points or fewer.

Scotland have won two of their last four home games against Ireland in the Six Nations (L2), after winning only one of the previous six clashes between the sides at BT Murrayfield (L5).

Ireland come into this match having beaten Italy in Rome in Round 3, ending a run of five straight defeats away from home in all competitions, they will be aiming to win consecutive Tests as the visiting side for the first time since winning four in a row between June 2018 and February 2019.

Scotland have lost their last two Test matches at BT Murrayfield, however they’ve not lost more consecutive games at their traditional home venue since losing four on the bounce between November 2014 and March 2015.

Scotland and Ireland are the only nations to boast a lineout success rate of 90+% in the Six Nations this year, Gregor Townsend’s side have won 24 of their 26 throws (92%) while Andy Farrell’s men have won 29/32 (91%).

Scotland are the only side to average fewer than 10 missed tackles (8.5) per game in the Six Nations in 2021 and as a result boast the best tackle success rate (92%); individually, only Paul Willemse (34/34) has attempted more tackles without missing than Scotland’s Hamish Watson (29/29).

CJ Stander is set to win his 50th cap for Ireland, the back row has made 47 carries so far in this year’s Six Nations, nine more than any other player; he also topped the charts for carries in three of the previous four campaigns (2017, 2018, 2020).

Scotland’s Stuart Hogg has beaten 14 defenders in this year’s Six Nations, more than any other player, despite playing just two games; the Scotland captain is also one of just five players to gain 200+ metres (201, also James Lowe, Monty Ioane, Elliot Daly, Hugo Keenan).

Ireland captain Johnny Sexton has slotted each of his 11 kicks at goal in the Six Nations this year, no other player has attempted more than two place kicks without missing at least once.

Tadhg Beirne (Ireland) has recorded the most ruck arrivals of any player in the 2021 Six Nations (117), hitting the most rucks of anyone in both attack (87) and defence (30); meanwhile, Scott Cummings (Scotland) has averaged the most rucks per game of any player (40), hitting 80 in just two games.

Anyone who thinks Scotland are favorites for this need to have a look at themselves in the mirror

Convincingly beaten last time we played Ireland
Our 'played the best I have seen Scotland play for a While against England' and squeaked a win and scored a lot less points than we should (heard that before over the last 20 years...)
Butchered an easily winable game against Wales

Sorry, but until we start winning these regularly we have not really moved that far forward. There is always a 'reason' we lost a match........but that has been the case for 10 years

We need to start actually winning them and doing so in a convincing manner

Not saying we can not win...but Ireland clear favourites

I can't call this one at all.
I mean going up against Scotland is never an easy task especially in Murrayfield but it's an even steeper mountain to climb this time with Scotland on the up, playing some lovely rugby and Ireland in transition, waiting for something to click. If it clicks for Ireland it could be a cracking game with lots of attacking rugby which is an exciting prospect. I'll be crossing all my digits and toes that this is the case, I miss enjoying watching Ireland play.

I keep changing my mind who will win this one, if Scotland are to do so then Ritchie & Watson have to have great games & as someone alluded to earlier cut off the 8 9 10 axis of Ireland.

I'd say Ireland are still strong favourites for this, despite not being the force they were a few seasons ago - is it now 5 on the spin they have won against Scotland?

2018 6N
2019 6N
2019 WC
2020 6N
2020 ANC

R!skysports wrote:Anyone who thinks Scotland are favorites for this need to have a look at themselves in the mirror

Convincingly beaten last time we played Ireland
Our 'played the best I have seen Scotland play for a While against England' and squeaked a win and scored a lot less points than we should (heard that before over the last 20 years...)
Butchered an easily winable game against Wales

Sorry, but until we start winning these regularly we have not really moved that far forward. There is always a 'reason' we lost a match........but that has been the case for 10 years

We need to start actually winning them and doing so in a convincing manner

Not saying we can not win...but Ireland clear favourites

That's a bit harsh
The past is the past, if we are favorites (I don't think we are) it's because we are performing well. Ireland are definitely not clear favourites in anyone's eyes
Bookies odds today Scotland 13/10, Draw 22/1, Ireland 11/13

We squeaked an England win on points only, outside that we totally dominated every single facet of the match, albeit Finn had a poor game, on another day we would have scored at least three more tries, you might call it an excuse/reason. We screwed up the Welsh game even taking into account the red.

We need to firstly start winning yes, convincingly? be nice but not necessary (As Eddie Jones said England had a lot of "get out jail cards" during their winning streak).

Yeah not sure anyone has called Scotland favourites, however there's a lot of games we should win that we're rightly not favourites for based on history rather than form. The excuse list is getting shorter for Scotland though, it's not like we have a poor group of players. Our depth is better than its ever been, and this Ireland side is ageing and in transition as alluded to earlier.

Totally agree with Risky. Until we prove that we can back up big wins like the England game without bottling it we have no right to be considered favourites against a far more successful side like Ireland. I’m not bothered by winning by large margins, that’s a step away from where we are. The important thing is to be putting in wins, regularly and consistently and to manage to do that when we don’t play well. That’s the mark of a good team, and that’s what it takes to truly challenge in this competition.

Just look at Wales! We’re still a long way off that IMO, and it will take actual proof of something changing in results and not continual platitudes and ‘shoulds’ to convince me otherwise

So we have played 10 games and have a 60% win ratio since start of 2020, reference to the 4 lost games, we could argue that 3 of them were our own man sausage-ups, then our win ratio should be between 70-90%

2021 Results W1 L1
13/02/21 Sco 24 - 25 Wal
06/02/21 Eng  6 - 11  Scot

2020 Results W5 L3
We lost the 3 games by one converted try, *2 of them due to Hogg brainfarts, which lost 7 of our points against Ireland and gave away 7 pts to England
22/11/20 Sco 15 - 22  Fra
14/11/20 Ita  17 - 28  Sco
31/10/20 Wal 10 - 14  Sco
24/10/20 Sco 48 - 7   Geo
08/03/20 Sco 28 - 17  Fra
22/02/20 Italy 0 - 17  Sco
08/02/20 Sco  6 - 13  Eng*
01/02/20 Ire 19 - 12  Sco*

If you reflect that on current world rankings, we are just behind Ireland currently, but if we had won/drawn those 3 losses we would have been around the 84pts & #5 place.
World Rankings as of 01/03/2021
1. SA 94.20
2. NZ 88.95
3. Fra 86.42
4. Eng 85.63
5. Wal 83.97
6. Aus 83.08
7. Ire 82.55
8. Sco 81.29
9. Arg 80.31
10. Jap 79.29

I know if and buts....but that's why in my mind Ireland are favourites but not "clear favourites"

I think the OP has the team right, although I don't see us as favourites here at all. We hardly ever beat Ireland. They always seem horribly competent at the set piece and too savvy at the breakdown. We've been bullied a bit by them in recent times as well.

I think Ireland by 10 as our season fizzles out. Losing to Wales was such a blow to what could have been real momentum.

Rumours are Nel, Johnson and Maitland coming in. Seema about right.

RDW wrote:Rumours are Nel, Johnson and Maitland coming in. Seema about right.

Agree with all of that.

12 is frustrating, given the depth we have with Redpath, Hutchinson and Taylor (or even Hastings, or Scott). No issues with Johnson, better than Lang, but we have so many options at 12 but they never seem to be selectable.

Against Ireland Maitland makes sense, as does Nel for the scrum.

RDW wrote:Really can't call this game at all, but Ireland are probably favourites

Likewise. Under normal circumstances, with Ireland having lost twice already, it would be hard to see Ireland losing. But this isn't a normal tournament under normal circumstances. Scotland are hard to predict but if Ireland go back to basics they should be able to grind out a win through the attritional rugby they love to play in the opposition half.

It could be a great game to watch if Scotland turn up and Ireland recognise they have to play some rugby in response. Or it could be rustier than a bucket of nails on top of Ben Nevis.

funnyExiledScot wrote:I think the OP has the team right, although I don't see us as favourites here at all. We hardly ever beat Ireland. They always seem horribly competent at the set piece and too savvy at the breakdown. We've been bullied a bit by them in recent times as well.

I think Ireland by 10 as our season fizzles out. Losing to Wales was such a blow to what could have been real momentum.

Agree with that fES - the Wales game was our opportunity to build some momentum into the rest of the championship, but we bottled that one, and then obviously the French game being cancelled has made the high of the England game feel a very long time ago.

Since our win in the 2017 6N, Ireland have been pretty comfortable winners against us without really having to get out of 3rd gear - I think it will be more of the same on Sunday.

Are Scotland the new French team now?

Which Scotland side will show up? The shoot themselves in the foot side? Or the all cylinders firing side who can beat anyone on their day?

Expecting a fairly conservative selection for this one, perhaps Toonie will drop Graham for Maitland, but Graham is bloody nimble. He could be a good option against Lowe who has been impressive for Ireland but is perhaps more likely to have a tougher time defending the slippery Graham? Both good options really.

Johnson is solid, I like him a lot as a distributor and defender. A world class 12 these days has a good kicking game as well though and I haven't really seen that from Johnson.

SBW setup Mckenzies try against us in 2017 with a beautiful little grubber and Redpath showed what it can be like for Scotland if your inside centre can also kick very accurately in attack and defence against England. Ireland will know that if Johnson is playing they won't have to worry about the kicking side of his game because he's yet to really use it at International level.

The Glasgow side has been named for tomorrow and the following are not in it;

International duty: Scott Cummings, Matt Fagerson, Sam Johnson, Huw Jones, Oli Kebble, Ali Price, George Turner.

I would think that Ollie Kebble is the only one who will not be starting, but will be benching.

Toonie has been very quiet about Hoggy, who sustained a knee injury at the weekend. If Hogg is crooked then it would be Shug or No Maits at 15. I think Shug is the form choice, with No Maits and VDM on the wings.

Would be interesting if Jones started at fullback if Hogg was injured. Maitland is a proven operator there with some memorable wins for Scotland at FB (Aus 2017, Eng 2019). I can't help but feel he'll either be at 13 or on the bench.

I think Maitland is a fantastic player and he has never let Scotland down. Shug has been playing more at 15 than he has recently.

VDM-Shug-No Maits starting back three; ADHD Kid benching so we can put Shug to 13 replacing Harris if we need to chase the game.

I'd be pretty happy to see that. Nice having options now, ten years ago this was the Scotland side to face ireland

Paterson; Walker, De Luca, S Lamont, Evans; Jackson, Blair; Jacobsen, Ford, Low, Gray, Kellock, Brown, Barclay, Beattie.

Replacements: Danielli for Walker (75), Parks for Jackson (54), R Lawson for Blair (61), S Lawson for Ford (54), Cross for Low (67), Hines for Barclay (67), Vernon for Beattie (54).

bsando wrote:I'd be pretty happy to see that. Nice having options now, ten years ago this was the Scotland side to face ireland

Paterson; Walker, De Luca, S Lamont, Evans; Jackson, Blair; Jacobsen, Ford, Low, Gray, Kellock, Brown, Barclay, Beattie.

Replacements: Danielli for Walker (75), Parks for Jackson (54), R Lawson for Blair (61), S Lawson for Ford (54), Cross for Low (67), Hines for Barclay (67), Vernon for Beattie (54).

That's not a bad team. Particularly up front. It just needs a bit of razzle dazzle particularly in the midfield. Only 3 non-Scots as well. I assume the team at the weekend will have around 50% non-Scots, which is a massive shame.

whatahitson wrote:

bsando wrote:I'd be pretty happy to see that. Nice having options now, ten years ago this was the Scotland side to face ireland

Paterson; Walker, De Luca, S Lamont, Evans; Jackson, Blair; Jacobsen, Ford, Low, Gray, Kellock, Brown, Barclay, Beattie.

Replacements: Danielli for Walker (75), Parks for Jackson (54), R Lawson for Blair (61), S Lawson for Ford (54), Cross for Low (67), Hines for Barclay (67), Vernon for Beattie (54).

That's not a bad team. Particularly up front. It just needs a bit of razzle dazzle particularly in the midfield. Only 3 non-Scots as well. I assume the team at the weekend will have around 50% non-Scots, which is a massive shame.

Haha good one

More the back line really, the killer B's in their day were excellent! I'd still rather have Ritchie and Watson though with Beattie at his peak packign down at number 8. Hines and J Gray would have been a good combination too. Our current front row are probably better now as well, but Ford will always be a Scottish legend.

Niki Walker 24 caps - 30 points
Evans 44 caps - 15 points
Danielli 32 caps - 40 points

Darcy Graham 14 caps - 40 points
Sean Maitland 48 caps - 75 points
Duhan Van Der Merwe 6 caps - 20 points

Wasn't the team meant to be announced this afternoon or did I read the tweet from a podcast wrong?

Really hoping Sam Skinner is in the team and Dobie potentially too, it would be nice to see a fellow Highlander make it to the big time .

Fwiw, I'm from Thurso up in the very far North of Scotland, I don't think I've told you peeps that before.

Highland Shaun wrote:Wasn't the team meant to be announced this afternoon or did I read the tweet from a podcast wrong?

Really hoping Sam Skinner is in the team and Dobie potentially too, it would be nice to see a fellow Highlander make it to the big time .

Fwiw, I'm from Thurso up in the very far North of Scotland, I don't think I've told you peeps that before.

Dobbie is in the Glasgow squad for Friday so very unlikely!

Can't see much change from last squad but yes Skinner should come in for gray Sr!

bsando wrote:
Niki Walker 24 caps - 30 points
Evans 44 caps - 15 points
Danielli 32 caps - 40 points

Darcy Graham 14 caps - 40 points
Sean Maitland 48 caps - 75 points
Duhan Van Der Merwe 6 caps - 20 points

If the top three played in the current team they'd score more tries. The attitude in Scotland has changed from playing attritional 10 man rugby like the Irish but without as much aerial kicking to playing more like the French with a bit of Kiwi thrown in for good measure. I wonder if you compared the points totals of someone like Paterson and Parks to Russell how they'd compare? Particularly as a % of total points scored for Scotland in the games they played.

Anyone else struggling to get up for this game?

The shafting vs wales, the cancelled game against France and this game on a Sunday are all dragging down my enthusiasm for this

tigertattie wrote:Anyone else struggling to get up for this game?

The shafting vs wales, the cancelled game against France and this game on a Sunday are all dragging down my enthusiasm for this

It does lead to the usual pessimistic feelings. If we can break the duck against Ireland though that'd be good and contribute to our continued rugby recovery. I'll stick to my guns and say we should win this one, just as we should have shown up in the past not that we should because we're favourites (we're rightly not), but we might just deliver on Sunday. Scotland 14-12 Ireland.

tigertattie wrote:Anyone else struggling to get up for this game?

The shafting vs wales, the cancelled game against France and this game on a Sunday are all dragging down my enthusiasm for this

TT, do not lose faith.  Believe and they will deliver!
If we can convincingly beat England away (albeit a pretty podgy England) we can also put Ireland away on Sunday.

Flounder, let's just suppose Glasgow don't have any other fit 9's. Dobbie has to bench. Let's suppose that Kennedy plays the 80 minutes. Why can't Dobbie bench for Scotland on Sunday?
I'm more concerned about the lack of cover at 10. If VDW is unfit, as rumour suggests, then who covers Dancer? People trot out Hogg to 10 but he's never played there for Scotland and he may not be playing on Sunday. I can't see a viable 10 in the squad, Dobbie 9 and Price 10 may be the least bad option.

Ok let me put it this way - if Dobie is indeed in the Scotland squad (except the late injury) I'll change tattie's name to "I love Al Kellock". That's how confident I am. Scotland always comes first on selection.

I'm guessing Lang would be on the bench as back up 10....but all fingers crossed that Russell doesn't come off!

RDW wrote:Ok let me put it this way - if Dobie is indeed in the Scotland squad (except the late injury) I'll change tattie's name to "I love Al Kellock". That's how confident I am. Scotland always comes first on selection.

I'm guessing Lang would be on the bench as back up 10....but all fingers crossed that Russell doesn't come off!

The house elf was born in the manor therefore he'll be starting on Sunday.

"born in the manor" WTF??? What drivel is this?
Is this a Harold Potter cultural reference?

I think we might see Dobie and Ashman and maybe Mclean get their first runs in Blue next week against Italy.

It would make even more sense if we have to play France the week after and could maybe do with rotating a few players.

jimbopip wrote:"born in the manor" WTF??? What drivel is this?
Is this a Harold Potter cultural reference?

Well... He does look to be the manor born

...Perhaps I'm showing my youth and dry/odd sense of humour...

BigGee wrote:I think we might see Dobie and Ashman and maybe Mclean get their first runs in Blue next week against Italy.

It would make even more sense if we have to play France the week after and could maybe do with rotating a few players.

Dude, please stop talking sense. No place for it here

tigertattie wrote:

BigGee wrote:I think we might see Dobie and Ashman and maybe Mclean get their first runs in Blue next week against Italy.

It would make even more sense if we have to play France the week after and could maybe do with rotating a few players.

Dude, please stop talking sense. No place for it here

Someone got to be the grownup in the room with you lot!

Anglobraveheart wrote:

tigertattie wrote:Anyone else struggling to get up for this game?

The shafting vs wales, the cancelled game against France and this game on a Sunday are all dragging down my enthusiasm for this

TT, do not lose faith.  Believe and they will deliver!
If we can convincingly beat England away (albeit a pretty podgy England) we can also put Ireland away on Sunday.

Erm we didn’t beat them convincingly. We only beat them 11-6

Ireland the ever pragmatic will not fail to score against us

My worry is that we fail to beat Ireland, make hard work of Italy and then get blown away by France

Then we’re back to being plucky old Scotland who raise their game for the English but blow chuncks against everyone else. It’s like GLove hand picked Scotland to play every week and As Long As We Beat England it’s all ok......

Anyone expecting any surprises, or as its known on here, Townsend tombola, selections or is that only for a squad announcement rather than a match day squad selection?