Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

The best thing about our system is that every single person in the country gets an equal vote under equal circumstances. Unless a National ID card scheme is introduced this will just alienate poorer voters. Just another way to rig the system.

lostinwales wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Further good news for the next Tory leader then, no danger of a strong opposition for the next couple of years and at the next GE.

By that, do you mean they won't have a posturing fool opposite them at PMQs etc? Personally, I'd rather a rational, fact-based individual in a leading role within our politics and I don't give a stuff if some think he's 'dull' or some other nonsense accusation.

I mean that Starmer has no ideas, no vision, no charisma and this is why the general public's reception of Labour under Starmer can be best described as 'lukewarm'. He is essentially Ed Miliband all over again. If Starmer had been dislodged as leader then Labour may have been able to find a new leader with those qualities. In an ideal world of course charisma/image etc. wouldn't matter, but it does in our democracy.

I'm not so sure that Starmer can be described as 'fact-based'. He lies like any usual politician, though certainly not as much as Johnson.

I think a leader who is boring but pragmatic, respectable and talented is exactly what we need right now.

This may be the case but indications are that Starmer is struggling to cut through with voters, and he won't be a leader of anything (bar the Labour Party) unless he can do that.

A lot of course depends on who Starmer is up against for the next couple of years. If I were him I'd be praying it's Sunak.

I remember a mock the week sketch from years ago of Gordon Brown saying something like "the economy is in the Poopie, I blame the previous chancellor". That's kinda how Sunaks pitch cuts across to me

Former chancellors becoming leaders are a trend in how parties have lost office on the last three occasions:

Blair resigns, Brown comes in, Labour lose 2010.
Thatcher resigns, Major comes in, wins in 1992 (dismal opposition) but loses in 1997.
Wilson resigns, Callaghan comes in, loses in 1979.

Sunak might continue this run.

An 11th candidate has entered this race, but not Priti Patel, it is instead Rehman Chishti. A bizarre choice to run as he currently has no backers amongst MPs and is a virtual unknown in any case. Current number of MPs endorsing each leadership candidate is:

Rishi Sunak 34; Penny Mordaunt 21; Tom Tugendhat 15; Liz Truss 15; Nadhim Zahawi 14; Kemi Badenoch 12; Jeremy Hunt 12; Priti Patel 11 (not yet confirmed to run); Suella Braverman 10; Sajid Javid 10; Grant Shapps 7.

Over half of Tory MPs are yet to state their allegiance. The rules will be announced later today. Usually a Tory leadership candidate only needs 8 MPs supporting to be eligible to run, but this number might be increased because of the size of the field.

I think Patel will try and get Braverman and Badenoch to drop out and get their weight behind her because she’s a “proper” brexiteer and could get the support of the ERG better.

Maybe Grant Shapps has so few MP’s supporting him as they are unsure what alias he will be campaigning under?

None of them strike me as inspired choices. Labour will be loving this.

Many of these know they have no hope of being selected or don't even want to be selected, but are politicking, testing the water, trying to create allies for future power pushes for cabinet posts, undersecretaries, committee positions etc.

ps With regard to Brexit - are people here pushing to overturn Brexit and is that one of their main focuses? Will any of the other parties be running on a platform of submitting an application to return to the EU fold?

Worth remembering that at this point the candidates are only trying to appeal to fellow MP's and the amoral, insane and senile remaining members of the wider conservative party.

I think its a stretch to say chancellor replacing PM is a cause of subsequent failure. Chancellor has, for a long time, been seen as the no.2 job (in more ways than one) and therefore it has been common for the chancellor to move to PM when the PM goes.. Deputy PM is nothing like as important.

The examples Duty gives above are of governments that have been in power for a long time, and in this country governments that stay in power that long tend to get tired and weak.

Nobody is overturning Brexit, it's become some kind of purity test to appeal to the more lunatic elements of Boris' support. Braverman in particular seems to have gone full loony tunes

Well, since every man and his dog has decided to stand, I hereby announce via 606V2 that I wish to seek election as the leader of the Conservative Party.
Qualifications?
Not a narcissistic power-hungry egomaniac, which probably puts me separate from virtually the entire rest of the field.
No less name recognition than about half the potential candidates.
Really couldn't be any worse than most of them.

Spoiler:

Latest polling from ConHome of Tory members is Mordaunt (20%) narrowly leading Badenoch (19%) with Sunak trailing in 3rd (12%), but all tiny margins at the moment. Patel (may or may not run) has less support than Shapps which is really something.

Badenoch has a really good chance if she convinces Braverman to drop out and support her. If that happened and Braverman's current MP support went over to Badenoch, then Badenoch would be in 2nd place in terms of MP support, and likely leading the members polling.

Two notable blunders in the race so far - Mordaunt's campaign video has upset a few people, by including images of Jo Cox and Oscar Pistorious, as well as a Paralympian who has requested to be removed from it. And Javid had a terrible campaign launch today, choosing to launch it in some furnace in London which didn't make for a pretty picture with the sweat pouring off of him.  

It looks as though Sunak, Mordaunt, Badenoch, Truss and (just about) Tugendhat are the serious contenders with a realistic chance of winning. The rest lack support of one kind or both.

Initial rules just announced - 20 MP supporters will be needed for each candidate to get onto the ballot, first round on Wednesday where at least 30 MP supporters are required for a candidate to continue in the race, second round may be on Thursday. Should be plain sailing for the majority of them to get to the second round, though not for Shapps and Chishti.

Dear me just seen that they expect to announce the final result on September 5th. Absolutely no need for it to take this long in the Internet age.

I am hoping Patel gets in. Can't see it happening though but here's hoping.

Patel would be great, it would all but guarantee a Tory wipe out in a GE.

1st Ballot Wednesday, 2nd on Thursday. Winner to be announced on 5th Sept.

I don't really care who wins, as long as someone capable and who ends the lies and scandals. But given most have announced impossible tax cuts to achieve, that may be a long forlorn hope.

Samo wrote:Patel would be great, it would all but guarantee a Tory wipe out in a GE.

I was thinking more of another push towards 'Yes' in the 2023 Scottish independence referendum. But yes that was well.

Samo wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:Far right populist. Christ people are clueless, Johnson was more centrist than Cameron.

Imagine unironically believing that.

True though. Johnson isn't right wing by instinct. Trouble is for him, he's a recidivist liar and scoundrel with zero actual standards. He pandered to the right of the Tory party simply because it benefitted him personally, but it doesn't make him one of them.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Samo wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:Far right populist. Christ people are clueless, Johnson was more centrist than Cameron.

Imagine unironically believing that.

True though. Johnson isn't right wing by instinct. Trouble is for him, he's a recidivist liar and scoundrel with zero actual standards. He pandered to the right of the Tory party simply because it benefitted him personally, but it doesn't make him one of them.

He isn't, but the UKIPpers have flourished and taken over the conservative party under his watch. (Reminds me a little of Corbyn and antisemitism)

Labour confirm they will table a no confidence motion later today, which could be voted on as early as tomorrow.

Smart play. Either it passes and potentially triggers a GE - which the Tories will almost certainly lose their majority, or it doesnt and Labour have all the ammo they need for when the GE finally rolls round in that all week the same MP’s that told us Johnson was unfit for office just voted to keep him in No. 10.

UKIP hasn't taken over the Conservative Party.

Last time I checked the Tories stood for - high tax, high regulation, state interference (e.g. sugar tax) and large government, high immigration, net zero + opposition to coal, HS2, not repealing the ban on new grammar schools, no electoral reform of any kind, and keeping the Barnett formula.

These are all things that UKIP under Farage were opposite to in value. Yet supposedly UKIP have taken over?! As a former UKIP member I'd be delighted if this were the case, but the Tories are a million miles away from that.

The Tories are currently a big government, centre of the spectrum party. A position they've been getting ever closer to since they removed Thatcher in 1990. We might see them move back to the right depending on the results of the leadership election, of course.

Oh my god that explains everything

Shapps drops out to endorse Sunak. Couldn't have seen that coming!

Patel not running. She failed to convince Braverman to stand aside for her and this is the result. Patel is one who would have been an even bigger vote-loser than Sunak, so a bullet dodged for the Tories in this regard.

Bad news for Liz Truss as Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries give her their backing. JRM says she is a “proper Euro-skeptic” and Dorries says shes “probably a stronger Brexiteer than both of them.”

Liz Truss campaigned for Remain.

Three TV debates is bloody excessive, but it appears three TV debates are what the good people of this nation are getting.

Channel 4 on Friday. ITV on Sunday. Sky News on Monday. Don't see the point of this until they're down to the final two.

Current odds on winning - Sunak 7/4; Mordaunt 15/8; Truss 11/4; Badenoch 14/1; Tugendhat 16/1.

And Labour's no confidence vote has been blocked, I'm hearing. That'll cause some drama.

Sunak's virtually guaranteed to reach the final two, but the latest ConHome polling reveals his problem - Mordaunt 58-31 Sunak; Badenoch 56-31 Sunak; Truss 51-34 Sunak.

Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Badenoch, Braverman, Hunt, Tugendhat and Zahawi all make it over the first hurdle of 20 MPs.

Javid and Chishti (just one backer, himself) are out.

Duty281 wrote:Three TV debates is bloody excessive, but it appears three TV debates are what the good people of this nation are getting.

Channel 4 on Friday. ITV on Sunday. Sky News on Monday. Don't see the point of this until they're down to the final two.

Current odds on winning - Sunak 7/4; Mordaunt 15/8; Truss 11/4; Badenoch 14/1; Tugendhat 16/1.

And Labour's no confidence vote has been blocked, I'm hearing. That'll cause some drama.

Sunak's virtually guaranteed to reach the final two, but the latest ConHome polling reveals his problem - Mordaunt 58-31 Sunak; Badenoch 56-31 Sunak; Truss 51-34 Sunak.

Why I find Sunak’s odds so baffling. He seems a lock to make the final two, and I guess that carries a lot of weight but he loses to all the candidates in the final two. Events happen I guess, but it would take something monumental to turn those head to heads around.

Sunak seems the guy there based on credentials but does anyone actually want him to be PM

JDizzle wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Three TV debates is bloody excessive, but it appears three TV debates are what the good people of this nation are getting.

Channel 4 on Friday. ITV on Sunday. Sky News on Monday. Don't see the point of this until they're down to the final two.

Current odds on winning - Sunak 7/4; Mordaunt 15/8; Truss 11/4; Badenoch 14/1; Tugendhat 16/1.

And Labour's no confidence vote has been blocked, I'm hearing. That'll cause some drama.

Sunak's virtually guaranteed to reach the final two, but the latest ConHome polling reveals his problem - Mordaunt 58-31 Sunak; Badenoch 56-31 Sunak; Truss 51-34 Sunak.

Why I find Sunak’s odds so baffling. He seems a lock to make the final two, and I guess that carries a lot of weight but he loses to all the candidates in the final two. Events happen I guess, but it would take something monumental to turn those head to heads around.

Yeah, I know what you mean. I suppose it's similar to the Euros last year after England beat Germany, and England were then the bookmakers' favourites to win the competition, mainly because they were in the easier side of the draw whereas Italy had to force their way through Belgium and Spain before the final.

Italy, Belgium and Spain this time around are Mordaunt, Truss and Badenoch. They'll be confident if they make the final, but getting there will be an ordeal.

Putting on a conspiracy theorist's hat, some of Sunak's MP supporters may vote for a candidate that Sunak would probably beat, such as Tugendhat or Hunt, in an effort to get the beatable candidate in the final two. That would carry risk but Sunak's margin may be so large that this could be viable. And of course unforeseen events, as you allude to, could lead to no vote even taking place (as in 2016).

I think we're down to four potential winning candidates, I'm prepared to strike Tugendhat off the list as his polling numbers are dreadful (worse than Sunak) and his campaign launch was dismal (though not as bad as Sunak's). Badenoch's launch was excellent and good to see she wasn't entering into the orgy of meaningless tax-cutting promises.

First proper round is tomorrow and candidates must get a minimum of 30 votes to advance. If all candidates get 30+ the one with the lowest drops out. Sunak's currently got 47 confirmed, Mordaunt 30, Truss 23, Badenoch 21, but around 160 MPs haven't declared their allegiance as of yet.

YouGov polling of Tory members further indicates the perils of Sunak's H2H chances.



The race for second amongst MPs seems to be the race for the premiership.

Mordaunt is the second favourite overall with the bookmakers*, but I reckon Truss is slightly more likely to beat her to second in the MP votes as, though she's currently a little behind in the MP count, Truss has the more influential MPs behind her at the moment. She has the chairman of the ERG, which could indicate that most of them will fall in behind her, JRM and IDS, which carries a heavier influence than the ones backing Mordaunt. Truss is also more likely than Mordaunt to pick up a greater number of Braverman's and Badenoch's MP supporters if they drop out of the race before her - though I'm certainly not discounting Badenoch just yet.

We'll know a lot more after the first round result at 17:00. Zahawi, Hunt and Braverman teetering close to the precipice.

*Scratch that. Just checked the odds and it seems the bookmakers are now aware of Sunak's polling peril - Mordaunt is about evens, Sunak 3/1, Truss 3/1.

Sunak 88; Mordaunt 67; Truss 50; Badenoch 40; Tugendhat 37; Braverman 32; Zahawi 25; Hunt 18.

Zahawi and Hunt both out. Sunak not as dominant as expected. Mordaunt, Truss and Badenoch will be cautiously optimistic on these returns.

43 MPs now have to vote elsewhere. I expect the lions share to go to Sunak.

Braverman may drop out before the second round. If she does I'd expect most of her support to go to Badenoch, indicating Badenoch could leapfrog Truss into third.

Duty281 wrote:43 MPs now have to vote elsewhere. I expect the lions share to go to Sunak.

Maybe, but I could also see a good amount deciding they'd rather get on board with Mordaunt now that she looks a fairly safe bet to get to the run-off.

Lowlandbrit wrote:

Duty281 wrote:43 MPs now have to vote elsewhere. I expect the lions share to go to Sunak.

Maybe, but I could also see a good amount deciding they'd rather get on board with Mordaunt now that she looks a fairly safe bet to get to the run-off.

Yeah, thinking about it a bit more I'd be inclined to agree with that. There are also some MPs who backed Hunt who are on what is considered the right of the party, such as Davies, and they could support Braverman or Badenoch.

Sunak's chances looks dead in the water. The polling indicates he's toast, especially with no Hunt or Zahawi in the race. MPs will realise that so new support will be difficult to come by (why back a loser?), and some MPs who currently support him may abscond and jump ship to a different candidate. Sunak himself may even realise this, and I wouldn't be surprised if he actually chose to drop out knowing the fate that awaits him with the members.

Therefore I think I'm down to three potential winners - Mordaunt, Truss and Badenoch. Sunak dropping out or missing the boat altogether would blow the whole thing wide open, but for now it's reasonable to assume only one of those three will make the run-off.

All things being equal, tomorrow's second round should see Braverman exit the process. Then it's a question of where her support goes. If she endorses Truss, it'll be time for Badenoch to drop out and also throw her weight behind Truss. But if Braverman backs Badenoch then Badenoch becomes a serious contender. Of course there is a decent chance that it's Tugendhat who falls tomorrow.

There is no chance Rishi drops out IMO. We’ve seen from Hunt that you potentially only get one shot at this thing, and it could be 7+ years before Rishi gets another shot if he drops out now - better off praying for a miracle with the members.

Labour would be very happy with either Truss or Rishi winning of the three favourites. Mordaunt would be the worst for them, purely as she has no record to defend. But it would be interesting to see how much damage Boris did to the Tory brand or is it all pinned on him. There is only so many times you can play the ‘fresh start’ card!

Alternatively, of course, Sunak may remember Johnson dropping out in 2016 and getting a second shot three years later and winning. Sunak may think the next leader will lose/do badly in 2024 and be on their way out then, so he can strike once more when memories have faded somewhat.

I think Labour would be hoping Sunak wins, but either Mordaunt or Truss wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. Mordaunt is a complete lightweight and not very competent (I see Lord Frost has criticised her). Truss has a bit more nous about her, but is somewhat tainted by her years with Johnson and her net favourability ratings are terrible. Badenoch is by a comfortable margin the strongest candidate, and I think many of the Tory members realise that, but it's the MPs she's struggling with.

Second round result announced at 15:00 today, the last round of the week. Braverman 2/9 to fall at this fence, then all eyes on where her support goes.

I still think it'll be Sunak and Truss in the final two.

Ah yes, "Lord" Frost, famous for thinking his own negotiation skills were complete crap, is definitely the ideal person to assess others competence!

Rishi has none of the “skills” Boris does though. He’s not an especially competent politician - his popularity soared on the basis he got to give people money to stay at home. I struggle to see him positioning himself to make another run at the leadership.

Mordaunt will definitely try to do the fresh start - whether it works is a different matter. Plus we will get to see plenty of her belly flopping the pool from the ITV show Splash, which is always amusing.

Don’t know a lot about Badenoch. Albeit all I have seen from her campaign so far is a lot of culture wars nonsense, which is generally the sign of a politician who has very little idea about what they actually what to achieve.

It seems from the outside it's not massively dissimilar to the Corbyn situation where the membership overwhelmingly wants one candidate, while the MPs may have different motivations. Wouldn't be a shock I guess if the Sunak, Truss et al camps tried to engineer their supporters to eliminate Mordaunt before the members get to vote

GSC wrote:It seems from the outside it's not massively dissimilar to the Corbyn situation where the membership overwhelmingly wants one candidate, while the MPs may have different motivations. Wouldn't be a shock I guess if the Sunak, Truss et al camps tried to engineer their supporters to eliminate Mordaunt before the members get to vote

Will no one rid us of this turbulent ballot process?

Badenoch 49 (+9); Braverman 27 (-5 and out); Mordaunt 83 (+16); Sunak 101 (+13); Truss 64 (+14); Tugendhat 32 (-5)

Braverman goes as anticipated. Tugendhat, if he has any sense, should also drop out. Truss will be disappointed, I think, she wanted to be in the 70s. Badenoch well in the race.

Key now is where Braverman's support goes, as said yesterday. Mordaunt is quite vulnerable v Truss/Badenoch and needs support from Tugendhat.

Now is the time for Tugendhat to admit he is unlikely to make the final 2 and get behind Mordaunt.

I can also see those Braverman backers largely moving behind Badenoch, which suddenly makes Truss vulnerable.

I can potentially see a Sunak v Badenoch ballot

Tom wants his moment on TV I think

Afro wrote:Now is the time for Tugendhat to admit he is unlikely to make the final 2 and get behind Mordaunt.

I can also see those Braverman backers largely moving behind Badenoch, which suddenly makes Truss vulnerable.

I can potentially see a Sunak v Badenoch ballot

Yes, I can also see that, but it depends on Braverman's support. Badenoch's path to victory is narrow and essentially needs all these parts:

Braverman endorses her; as a result Badenoch beats Truss to 3rd place on the next ballot (Monday); Truss drops out and endorses Badenoch; Sunak may slip some supporters to Badenoch as he'd prefer to face her than Mordaunt, based on polling; all these things combined put Badenoch into 2nd ahead of Mordaunt; Badenoch then beats Sunak in the H2H.

If Truss had got into the 70s today I think Badenoch may have thought the gap was too far to bridge, but she is only 15 adrift.

Truss is still the most likely by my reckoning, then Mordaunt, then Badenoch.

If Mordaunt hoovers up most of Tugendhats support its not miles away from the point where she'd be making the top 2. Sunak might be best served negotiating a prominent position again in return for withdrawal and endorsement?

GSC wrote:Tom wants his moment on TV I think

He could make an impression to help him in the future. Thinking about Rory Stewart as the example. Made a good impression with the public, but not the MPS, however you'd have to suspect that had he still been an MP and standing, he would have done much better this time around.

Braverman backs Truss, so that should be the end of Badenoch's challenge. I expect Badenoch's supporters, in time, to mostly go to Truss as well.

Badenoch's last hope is an inspired and dazzling performance in tomorrow's and Sunday's debate (and Tuesday's if's she still around) where she wins over many MPs. Faint hope, if that. Badenoch has a very bright future ahead of her, that's safe to say.

Truss should have a final two spot locked down. The combined Truss + Badenoch + Braverman vote was worth 140 today. If she can carry at least 120 of that forward when it gets to the final three she will be safe.

Sunak 18 ahead of Mordaunt leaves Mordaunt desperately needing Tugendhat's support to make the final two.

Should be Sunak v Truss in the final battle. Truss has about a 20-25% head start so it seems game, set and match. But she's still 7/2...

Braverman dropping out is bad for Labour, good for the rest of the country. The worst choice out of all of them, and probably less fit than Johnson was.

Interesting numbers. Can't see inside members' heads ; but surely on those figures it isn't impossible for the final contest to be between Truss and Mordaunt ?

Sunak still feels the wildcard. Winning the MP vote but all polling suggests he has virtually no chance of winning the membership vote. Could carry it all the way but feels like a public rejection on that scale would torpedo his future chances

Thats my take on it too. A lot hangs on if he has a long term strategy or he's all in on this vote and thats it.

Truss v Mordaunt could happen, but would probably rely on Sunak not picking up very many of the votes from Braverman, Badenoch and Tugendhat, and those votes being quite evenly split between Truss and Mordaunt.

alfie wrote:Interesting numbers. Can't see inside members' heads ; but surely on those figures it isn't impossible for the final contest to be between Truss and Mordaunt ?

No, no, not impossible, but tough for Mordaunt to make up the 19 votes she needs on Sunak, presuming he stays in the race. Can't see many of Braverman's or Badenoch's supporters going over to her.

It's also unclear how much effect the two debates will have before Monday's ballot, but it may give Mordaunt a boost if she performs well. Don't know how much the MPs are entrenched in their current vote.

I don't trust Mordaunt, and I find her easily the haughtiest of the remaining contenders, but given how desperate the Mail and Telegraph are for Truss to beat her to the final two, part of me wants Mordaunt to make it, just to see what happens.

Its all been kicking off in the ERG Whatsapp group, with leaked messages showing fightback against Francois for telling them to back Truss.