Scotland vs South Africa, 13th November 2021

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Scotland vs South Africa
1pm, Saturday 13th November 2021
Amazon Prime
BT Murrayfield Stadium
Edinburgh

Ref: Angus Gardner (Aus)

Not sure what to expect from Scotland as injuries could put a bit of pressure on the pack selections. Skinner was good against Australia and our alternatives are recalling a recalcitrant R Gray, starting a very green Hodgson or asking for 60 minutes from Cummings off an injury. Whilst Ashman got plaudits for his try and grew into the game, he also made some basic errors that can't be made against T1 sides and losing Turner would leave us choosing between him and a relatively undercooked McInally. In the backs, Steyn will likely come into the starters after a decent cameo but some analysis will be needed on how to create line-breaks against a strong rush defensive centre pairing of De Allende - Am.

For South Africa, the team is likely the same 23 as vs Wales, only possible changes could be Nkosi has sorted out his passport issues and will be back in the mix, and Fassi might come in for Willemse who failed an HIA. As for Bok tactics, it is very simple and there is nothing sinister or mysterious about it. If you look at their complete arsenal of attack, it is mauls, exploiting penalty advantage, counter, grubber kicks in the 22 and kick pass. The biggest weakness of the Boks is their predictable phase attack, they don't offload, they don't pass much, they don't really run angles to expose weak shoulders and they don't change the point of contact.

Scotland
Schoeman - McInally - Z Fagerson (Bhatti - Ashman - Kebble)
Skinner - Gilchrist (Hodgson)
Haining - M Fagerson - Ritchie (Watson)

Price - Russell (G Horne - Hastings)
Scott - Harris
DVDM - Hogg - McClean (Kinghorn)

South Africa
Nche - Mbonambi - Nyakane (Kitsoff - Marx - Koch)
Etzebeth - Mostert (De Jager)
Kolisi - Vermeulen - Smith (Wiese)

Jantjies - Jantjies (Reiach - Pollard)
De Allende - Am
Mapimpi - Le Roux - Kriel (Steyn)

Well the full team hasnt been announced yet but Sale have tweeted that Ewan Ashman is starting against South Africa!

Well deserved, may be operation bomb squad on the bench with Turner/McInally playing impact sub.

NeilyBroon wrote:Well deserved, may be operation bomb squad on the bench with Turner/McInally playing impact sub.

#Justice4Cherry

NeilyBroon wrote:Well deserved, may be operation bomb squad on the bench with Turner/McInally playing impact sub.

Well me and Sale stand corrected!

Agree that cherry has been good although hooker unfortunately for him is pretty competitive!

I'd rather see investment in the future during the autumn though, so Ashman wins for me at the moment.

Squads out

Seems toonies gone with initial grunt over Mish starting. Haining has had a couple of good appearances but I worry about his discipline.

Is steyn injured? Can't see why we have kinghorn benching, I just don't think he's been good enough for a long time, especially against a side like SA.

Very happy to see Scott back (although you'd imagine this will be one of his last outings in dark blue). Has been playing well for a long time just feel he's too often been left out in the cold for selection.

Johnson and Steyn can feel hard done by. Both did well enough though McClean and Scott deserved their opportunities. Kinghorn does not.

I understand wanting a bigger BS but losing one of our standouts in Watson seems silly. I get the logic of wanting him to come on with a half hour to go and set the heather alight. I just think he would have been a man possessed proving that he should have had Lions starts if he started. Does not help that Ritchie tries too hard when at 7 and got penalised quite a lot in the past when playing there.

Cummings and Turner must have been close. Makes sense not to risk them against a tough side in SA. Great chance for Ashman and Hodgson to lay down markers in competitive positions.

Well it is never dull with Toonie is it.

I kind of get the Haining selection and then bringing on a fresh Mish later on.

I do wonder if SJ had any kind of reaction to that smash of heads with Thor last weekend and maybe he is being rested with that in mind. Matt Scott has been playing well and will do a good job no doubt.

I am pleased to see Mclean get a crack as well, though it is certainly tough on Kyle Steyn.

Kinghorn is the odd selection for me. Presumably he is covering wing, FB and outside centre. He really needs to show up in this game, Toonie is taking a great leap of faith here!

NeilyBroon wrote:

NeilyBroon wrote:Well deserved, may be operation bomb squad on the bench with Turner/McInally playing impact sub.

Well me and Sale stand corrected!

Agree that cherry has been good although hooker unfortunately for him is pretty competitive!

I'd rather see investment in the future during the autumn though, so Ashman wins for me at the moment.

Nah im just trolling, Dave Cherry is a good club player and has taken a roundabout route to international honors but ashman is the coming man

Agree with BigGee on Kinghorn, Steyn should feel a bit put out like

On reflection this really might be horses for courses. Toonie knows his players incredibly well at this point and, rather than experimenting (much) he's happy that if he picks these players tailored to a specific gameplan targeting SA then they will deliver. A wee bit more grunt in the backrow, a wee bit more bulk at hooker and an unpredictable new talent at wing who may be safer under the high ball than Darcy... Kinghorn to come on in the back 3 if we are losing the aerial game and mish to run at a tired defense.

I dont think Johnson, Steyn, Darcy or Mish were dropped for form, its a gameplan thing

SA play like no-one else in that regard, bringing on a replacement bench of front row forwards who are arguably stronger than their starters, they don't really lose anything in the rest of their forward replacements either.

There is not doubt a lot of strategy going into the picking of this team/

NeilyBroon wrote:Seems toonies gone with initial grunt over Mish starting. Haining has had a couple of good appearances but I worry about his discipline.

Is steyn injured? Can't see why we have kinghorn benching, I just don't think he's been good enough for a long time, especially against a side like SA.

Very happy to see Scott back (although you'd imagine this will be one of his last outings in dark blue). Has been playing well for a long time just feel he's too often been left out in the cold for selection.

Surely at 31 Scott could still target the next RWC will just be turning 33 during it, he's the same age as Harris basically and I feel that centre is one of the few positions that outside of Harris no one has fully nailed down the other shirts.

Well it's a bit more of a Tombola this week Not too many complaints my end, mind.

I think a mix of horses-for-courses, but also a natural bit of rotation could be going on? I think Schoeman, Fagerson x2, Ritchie and Price are the only players to have started all three games so far, right? Some of that is related to getting the English and French players back after Tonga of course, but not only, e.g. Johnson/Watson.

Steyn can probably feel hard done by. Had an excellent game against Tonga, and made decent impact against the Aussies (made a turnover IIRC), so Kinghorn maybe a bit fortunate there. Excited to see how McLean goes, mind.

There must be some injury issues there. Johnson, Steyn and Graham all had strong games last week. Matt Scott has been out of the Scotland shirt for so long now, massive ask for him to perform at the highest level at inside centre rather than outside centre.

Maclean starting is a really exciting prospect if he can carry on his food form.

Haining is just the sort of player Scotland need for this one. Abrasive, confrontational and good in the air under high balls.

Great to see McInally back, he’s been missed.

Excited to see how this new team goes! They have the bench for expansive attacking rugby as well if it’s looking desperate.

Welly wrote:

NeilyBroon wrote:Seems toonies gone with initial grunt over Mish starting. Haining has had a couple of good appearances but I worry about his discipline.

Is steyn injured? Can't see why we have kinghorn benching, I just don't think he's been good enough for a long time, especially against a side like SA.

Very happy to see Scott back (although you'd imagine this will be one of his last outings in dark blue). Has been playing well for a long time just feel he's too often been left out in the cold for selection.

Surely at 31 Scott could still target the next RWC will just be turning 33 during it, he's the same age as Harris basically and I feel that centre is one of the few positions that outside of Harris no one has fully nailed down the other shirts.

A fair point, it's not like anyone other than Johnson is really putting their hand up. Very much depends on Cammy Redpath whether he ever survives a season without some horrific injury. Duncan Taylor MKII with his injury count!

Well, give me an emema with a golf umbrella and call me Doris. I didn't expect that.

Haining - no complaints - he's a big unit and he's clearly there as cannon fodder. Good luck to him.

Scott - people on these boards were asking for Matt Scott earlier this month. Well, you've got it. He's certainly in very good club form and won't let anyone down. Must be an injury to Samwise as SJ is a dedicated Toonie favourite.

Rufus - oh come on - tell me that selection didn't put a smile on your face. He's a game breaker and is our own Shane Williams, only less annoying and goblin-like.

McInally - absolutely made my week to see him back.

Steyn will have already been told he's starting against Japan so he just needs to have a cold one and take the week off.

I cannot believe we have the stuff to take on the Bok Robogym Squadron but I think we'll score a couple of belting tries and that's the Poopie that I want to see.

GC Titman's main threat is his broken field running. The Boks kick a lot. Our back three are all capable of making big returns if the kick chase isn't spot on.
If Matt Scott 12 has a good game he could be right back in the reckoning and will henceforth be called Lazarus.
Or possibly The George Carlin of international rugby.
Hope you're keeping well GC.

I’d not say Darcy, SJ and steyn have been dropped. It may not even be a case of them being injured.

4 games in 4 weeks is pretty tough going and Toonie may simply be using his squad. You need a whole squad to win a world cup mind. Look at wee Darcy, yes we won we’ll be Tonga but he was clattered black and blue that day. Oz would have taken a lot out the legs so he’s simply getting a wee break.

Even before the first ball was kicked he may have said players that are 50/50 calls would get one game each against Oz and SA.

The good news is that Rufus and Scott (12) are perfectly adequate call ups so it’s hardly crime of the century stuff picking them. It’s not like we’re swapping in Andy Henderson or Marcus di rollo.

Lordy there are a few surprises in that team announcement. Delighted for McLean on the wing, he's such an exciting player, but scratching my head a bit on Haining and Scott. Sure, both physical players and Scott has shown some nice touches for Leicester this season, but I'd prefer to have Hamish and Sam Johnson starting if given the choice.

Very excited about this one though. Annoyed to be missing it!

jimbopip wrote:
On a more serious note....I'm hearing that at the Scotland training camp Shona was running out at 12. Then he was "rested", slight strain, and Matt Scott 12 took over at...12.

I'm not 100% certain but I believe that after seeing what happened to the Tongan Thor the Boks refused to travel to Luvvietoon unless they received assurances that Johnson would not be playing.

I'm thinking of changing my user name to John The Baptist...the voice crying out in the wilderness. Why are we surprised Matt Scott12 is starting?

The informative Squidge Rugby chappie was saying that Allende marshalls the backs defensive line and Vermuelen spends most of his time at the side of rucks directing the other fat boys. One of the reasons The Criminal Element did so well against the Boks recently was DR adopted the cunning ploy of having someone run into them, depending on whether the attack was through the forwards or backs, and keep them at the bottom of the ruck for the next phase of play. So, Matt Scott12 to play AmphetamineSumo with De Allende and Haining to play MonsterTrucks with Vermuelen with Mbawza and Matt F looking to recycle as quickly as possible.

Interestingly, while the Boks bench is "Let's have more bulk" , Toonie has chosen Hamish, Hornito, Haircut and Blarehorn who are all pretty damn quick.

Well, Bok bench is a 5/3 split. With De Jager and Wiese the two mobile forwards.

Koch, Marx and Kitshoff would obviously not be as mobile, but with Reinach, Pollard and Frans Steyn the Boks don't lose any pace when the Bomb squad comes on.

Back row selection makes little sense. Ritchie isnt a 7. He looks industrious, has big hair and celebrates like he's won the world cup every time the scrum wins a penalty. Sadly he carries poorly (although not as poorly as MF) and will often get bounced in contact. We still have a back row with one ball carrier, this time it's Haining (bigger and heavier but not better than Mish) who will be our main source of go forward. Then Toonie will take him off move Mabawsa to six, to let Mish do his thang, and we'll still have one carrier in the back row.
it looks like Ritchie has become undroppable in the mad world of the Tombola.

Of course all the Scottish posters already know this...but Old Man and the other Bokkies do you realise Toonie is falling asleep smiling to himself and dreaming happy dreams about the 9-13 of ; Hornito-Haircut-Dancer-Blarehorn.

jimbopip wrote:Of course all the Scottish posters already know this...but Old Man and the other Bokkies do you realise Toonie is falling asleep smiling to himself and dreaming happy dreams about the 9-13 of ; Hornito-Haircut-Dancer-Blarehorn.

I don't think he'll have a clue what you're on about!

jimbopip wrote:Of course all the Scottish posters already know this...but Old Man and the other Bokkies do you realise Toonie is falling asleep smiling to himself and dreaming happy dreams about the 9-13 of ; Hornito-Haircut-Dancer-Blarehorn.

If we were going to a prom I would have been worried jimbo

Old Man
Why would we be going to a Prom? I'm not that kind of boy. But thanks for asking, it's always nice to know someone finds you desirable.

You had haircut and dancer in the same sentence, I assumed the Scottish rugby team is going to the prom

sensisball wrote:Back row selection makes little sense. Ritchie isnt a 7. He looks industrious, has big hair and celebrates like he's won the world cup every time the scrum wins a penalty. Sadly he carries poorly (although not as poorly as MF) and will often get bounced in contact. We still have a back row with one ball carrier, this time it's Haining (bigger and heavier but not better than Mish) who will be our main source of go forward. Then Toonie will take him off move Mabawsa to six, to let Mish do his thang, and we'll still have one carrier in the back row.
it looks like Ritchie has become undroppable in the mad world of the Tombola.

Agree with all of this. I'm a big Ritchie fan but he's a 6, he really is. With a proper 7 like Hamish it's a great combo, but at 7 with a bruiser like Haining at 6 (and without Brown at 2) I'm worried about the breakdown. Perhaps Toonie will tell us that South Africa play above the ground....

Matt Fagerson is a tough one. I honestly don't rate him at international level, and yet I'd pick him. He has cold tits for hands, average speed and about two stone light, but no-one at 8 is showing the form to displace him, so the jersey is his. His commitment is total. It's honestly an area I now worry about, and of the young players coming through only Muncaster interests me as an international prospect. Still, I think Toonie has it right in picking him (for now).

Toonie's interview about the team made the following suggestions:

1. Matt Scott is in on the basis of rotation and a reward for his good club form. He said that it is important that good form does get rewarded.

2. Rufus Mclean has earnt his opportunity as did the other wings in the previous games, but this was his chance now,

3. Hamish Watson came into the tournament a bit short of match fitness and needed to be managed, he has already put in two big shifts.

4. Haining is a player that the coaches like and always puts in a shift, he offers a different option to some of the other back row choices.

5. Mcinally would likely have been involved last week if he had not been ill but Ashman took his opportunity well and is now in the conversation.


He did not make any comments about Blairhorn on the bench!

Kinghorrn definitely doesn't make any sense, as the positions he covers (10 an back 3) are already covered by Hasting and Harris. It also means if we lose a centre then we need a major re-shuffle. If Steyn was on the bench then we basically have every position covered.

Folk forgetting that Ritchie played a lot of rugby at 7?

He’s not a lump of a 6. He’s a 6.5 that’s moved to 6 because we have a mish at 7.

Scott 12 is also a better distributor of the ball than SJ.

Have faith

RDW wrote:Kinghorrn definitely doesn't make any sense, as the positions he covers (10 an back 3) are already covered by Hasting and Harris. It also means if we lose a centre then we need a major re-shuffle. If Steyn was on the bench then we basically have every position covered.

If we lose Scott then Hastings comes on at 12 (something I'm a fan of), and if Harris has to come off then Hogg goes to 13 and Kinghorn comes on at 15. I dont think the selection suffers from a utility issue, I just question whether Kinghorn has the form as a back three player to merit the selection (given that Toonie is claiming that club form is king). I'd have picked Steyn on the bench personally.

tigertattie wrote:Folk forgetting that Ritchie played a lot of rugby at 7?

Nope. It's just that he's far better at 6 with a specialist 7. Ritchie is ok at 7 with another 6.5 on the flank, like Crosbie, but Haining is not that player. It might not hurt us given the opposition, and Toonie clearly wants more bulk in the pack (albeit I think Hodgson at lock and Skinner at 6 makes more sense to achieve that), but I'd have probably sacrificed Ritchie over Watson, even with the injury question marks.

Nah. Ritchie is a very valuable player to Scotland. He will be the captain after Hogg I think.

Mish needs managed. Chucking him into the bokke slog when he’s not 100% isn’t wise.

Don’t get me wrong, this game is a big deal, but it’s not like there’s a 6ns title at stake.

I say it every year. Summer tours are for trying new players. Autumn series are for tinkering with the combos you have in prep for the 6ns campaign.

If mish is out for a 6ns what do you do? Well we’ll see how effective Ritchie is at 7 this weekend. He’s played there before for Scotland and played well.

I’m going to nail Bru’s stones to the mast now and predict a MOTM performance from Ritchie on Saturday

funnyExiledScot wrote:

RDW wrote:Kinghorrn definitely doesn't make any sense, as the positions he covers (10 an back 3) are already covered by Hasting and Harris. It also means if we lose a centre then we need a major re-shuffle. If Steyn was on the bench then we basically have every position covered.

If we lose Scott then Hastings comes on at 12 (something I'm a fan of), and if Harris has to come off then Hogg goes to 13 and Kinghorn comes on at 15. I dont think the selection suffers from a utility issue, I just question whether Kinghorn has the form as a back three player to merit the selection (given that Toonie is claiming that club form is king). I'd have picked Steyn on the bench personally.

Hastings is not the 12 you want playing against the Boks! And neither is it ideal to bring him in at 10 and move Finn to 12.

Everything you describe there is a 'break glass in emergency' type arrangement - not something that should be planned on relying upon!

tigertattie wrote:If mish is out for a 6ns what do you do?

Darge or Gordon. Like for like.

RDW - I hear your concerns about Hastings at 12 vs the Boks, and the logic of playing a lump at 12 to counter the physicality has a degree of sense. That was Gatland's logic in the summer as well. Go toe to toe and match the physicality.

Personally I struggle to see how we can possibly beat South Africa on that strategy. We already have Harris at 13, who offers nothing but defense, so I see little problem in a creative option at 12 to give us more options. We won't beat the Boks with crash ball.

My 12 preferences would have been Johnson or Redpath, allrounders, but I'd pick Hastings over Scott. Certainly more than break glass.

The thing is with the 'match like for like' chat, this isn't just about us brining our game to SA but also coping with what they bring to us.

At the very least we have to try and cope with what they bring to us. If we have a lightweight pack and midfield then they could boss us and starve us of the ball. No point having creative players if you don't have any ball. This may happen anyway (and regularly happens to teams that play SA), but we can't go side to side against SA and expect it to lead to something - the old cliche of needing to go forwards first is very relevant.

I fully agree we shouldn't just pick the biggest players we have available, but that doesn't mean we go for a wildcard team!

funnyExiledScot wrote:

tigertattie wrote:If mish is out for a 6ns what do you do?

Darge or Gordon. Like for like.

I think at the moment, Ritchie is well ahead of Darge, who is on the up, but is injured and unproven at international level. Never mind world Cup holder level?
As for Gordon, he hasn't fixed a starting place at Glasgow.
To say that either is "like for like" for Watson is ambitious and not realistic.

funnyExiledScot wrote:RDW - I hear your concerns about Hastings at 12 vs the Boks, and the logic of playing a lump at 12 to counter the physicality has a degree of sense. That was Gatland's logic in the summer as well. Go toe to toe and match the physicality.
Personally I struggle to see how we can possibly beat South Africa on that strategy. We already have Harris at 13, who offers nothing but defense, so I see little problem in a creative option at 12 to give us more options. We won't beat the Boks with crash ball.

My 12 preferences would have been Johnson or Redpath, allrounders, but I'd pick Hastings over Scott. Certainly more than break glass.

Sorry FES, Scott is playing regularly at 12, and playing well, in an attritional league for the team that are top of the table. Hastings has been playing 10 for Gloucester. There is no logic to Hastings/Russell stepping into 12, unless we are desperate..

As for Kinghorn on the bench, the only logic thst I can see with that is to protect Steyn, who IMO would be a better fir gor the 23 Jersey, but may get carried away with the occasional of playing against his homeland, and it could affect his game.
Huw Jones could have been a good option, if he was match fit and on form, but he hasn't been playing regularly.
It's great to have such a broad and viable pool of players to pick from though.

Yeah, good comments above.

The bottom line is that I don’t think we’ll win so what I want is good performances. Hamish has nothing to prove to anyone so I’d rather see what Haining, Scott and Rufus with the Jet Shoes have to offer. Australia was always winnable and so it absolutely made sense to pick the most experienced team: this can be the experiment and we can award good performances whilst being duffed up the bum on the scoreboard with places against Japan.

As I said, Steyn is probably the first name on the team sheet for that game.

In contrast to last week when we were the big show, this weekend it’s whether Ireland can back up their now deeply ingrained view of their own marvelousness and actually turn over New Zealand. Some posters on the Irish threads apparently still cannot get over the fact that non-Paddies were picked for the Lions tour. It’s starting to get very old now.

In my opinion Scotland has a huge opportunity here.

Our starting pack loses a lot by starting de Jager on the bench, and with Herschel and Elton Jantjies at 9/10 it is our "flakiest" pairing, both prone to mistakes, both can be rattled as they are confidence players and it will be the weakness in our defence.

Willie isn't what he used to be.

Scotland can exploit those weaknesses until the bench come on, a good 40 minutes to build a lead big enough to make the Boks chase the game.

If Boks are close on the scoreboard by halftime they should be able to break open the second half on their terms

The fact of the matter is the Boks don't have the same depth as New Zealand, we like to think we do, but we don't.

Without Snyman and PSDT our defense and attack is poorer, without Faf our defence and tactical kicking is poorer, without Nkosi and Kolbe our attack is poorer.

I struggle to see why Nienaber is not starting Reinach and Pollard

Old Man - what has happened to Willie Le Roux? when he was at wasps he was a phenomenal 15 acting as a 2nd playmaker with a terrifyingly accurate long mispass which he often brought to the boks play during the world cup but during the lions series i thought he was fairly anonymous with zero link play?

He is just getting old tramptastic, time to move on from him.

Le Roux's form has been slipping since 2019, he has become error prone, whilst he did create a lot of tries in 2019, he has not created much in 2021, and his from keeps slipping. Nienaber a week ago said as much that le Roux is playing a mentorship role to Fassi and Willemse, and then retractd this week saying that is just one of his roles when he selected him for this test match.

It seems he doesn't trust Fassi.

Is Kolbe worth punting to 15? He's a devastating broken field runner and defensively sound like. Would open up other spots on the wing too!

Anglobraveheart wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:

tigertattie wrote:If mish is out for a 6ns what do you do?

Darge or Gordon. Like for like.

I think at the moment, Ritchie is well ahead of Darge, who is on the up, but is injured and unproven at international level. Never mind world Cup holder level?
As for Gordon, he hasn't fixed a starting place at Glasgow.
To say that either is "like for like" for Watson is ambitious and not realistic.

I'm not suggesting Ritchie isn't well ahead of both players. I'm simply suggesting Ritchie play at 6, with a specialist 7. Those players I proposed are specialist 7s.

I suppose the pecking order question is really whether you prefer Haining to Darge. Anyone care to argue that Haining's club form this season trumps Darge??

Anglobraveheart wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:RDW - I hear your concerns about Hastings at 12 vs the Boks, and the logic of playing a lump at 12 to counter the physicality has a degree of sense. That was Gatland's logic in the summer as well. Go toe to toe and match the physicality.
Personally I struggle to see how we can possibly beat South Africa on that strategy. We already have Harris at 13, who offers nothing but defense, so I see little problem in a creative option at 12 to give us more options. We won't beat the Boks with crash ball.

My 12 preferences would have been Johnson or Redpath, allrounders, but I'd pick Hastings over Scott. Certainly more than break glass.

Sorry FES, Scott is playing regularly at 12, and playing well, in an attritional league for the team that are top of the table. Hastings has been playing 10 for Gloucester. There is no logic to Hastings/Russell stepping into 12, unless we are desperate.

I think Scott has actually played more at 13 this season for Leicester, but I'm not arguing that he isn't playing well. He's on good form and enjoying Leicester's strong start.

We are agreed on Kinghorn vs Steyn, although I suppose Kinghorn gives better cover at 15 should Hogg get injured. Still, I'd have Steyn at 23 (or possibly starting).