Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

ps the Best leaders surround themselves with the best people.   Not so good leaders surround themselves with those that are not going to challenge them.  So maybe the reason why it appears that there is a poor selection of candidates is partly due to Boris Johnson.  Another reason may be that the leadership qualities and the general competence levels of elected mps has declined.

Can't see it being much more than a rerun of the last MP vote, especially now Rishi was proven right on the outcome of her plans

mountain man wrote:Mordant I reckon.

If they rerun the vote along the same lines as last time (but without the members), Sunak should win comfortably. He got 137 votes to Mordaunt's 105. What could be key is the 113 votes that Truss got and where they go - those MPs supported a more right-wing candidate, presumably there will be no right-wing candidate this time, such as Badenoch or Braverman, because what's the point?

Wallace standing could also complicate matters.

This'll be three Tory PMs in two months, Johnson's Premiership ended on the 6th September, which will be more than Labour have had in the last forty years!

Cameron v Miliband in 2015 was an incredible sliding doors moment in British politics. I know every election and every event has a big butterfly effect, but Cameron beating Miliband was monumentally significant.

One of the most favourite alternative history stories I've read concerned the 1970 General Election. Essentially it imagined that if Gordon Banks hadn't been ill for the game v West Germany then England would have won; England win and Labour, not Conservative, win the 1970 GE due to a spirit of national euphoria; this means Heath gets dispatched as Tory leader rather than becoming PM; this means Enoch Powell becomes Tory leader and, eventually, PM; this equals carnage.

We seem to be in the carnage end right now. Maybe there's a calmer alternative history where Miliband won? Or, maybe, even more carnage?

Voting for Braverman or Badenoch after the last 44 days would be inconcievably stupid.

Wallace might have more sense than to try and inherit this disaster. They need a spell in opposition to work out the future direction of the party rather than trying to work out one on the fly while in government

Samo wrote:Voting for Braverman or Badenoch after the last 44 days would be inconcievably stupid.

Strong chance they will then.

GSC wrote:Wallace might have more sense than to try and inherit this disaster. They need a spell in opposition to work out the future direction of the party rather than trying to work out one on the fly while in government

I agree. Whoever takes charge of the ship is heading for a big GE defeat down the road and the end of their political career, so it's not a desirable job, but I've long given up working out the motivations of politicians.

The big issue is its clear our political system is not working as it should and it needs strong reform.

I’d give it to Steve Bruce until the end of the season.

Samo wrote:I’d give it to Steve Bruce until the end of the season.

Got to be Big Sam. His record of saving sinking clubs and his already questionable morals make for a pretty good Tory CV.

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:

Samo wrote:I’d give it to Steve Bruce until the end of the season.

Got to be Big Sam. His record of saving sinking clubs and his already questionable morals make for a pretty good Tory CV.

I can see him now at the lectern, pint of wine in hand. Then he'll plunder the free market for loan signings and free agents to fill up the cabinet.

Have to say being PM is a crap job! Who's want it. No matter how it starts it always ends badly. Often despised by opposition and own party.
I guess having the top job is a draw but I can't think of anything worse

Tidy bit of Pulisball for me. Ryan Shawcross as Home Secretary, Rory Delap for Chancellor

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:

Samo wrote:I’d give it to Steve Bruce until the end of the season.

Got to be Big Sam. His record of saving sinking clubs and his already questionable morals make for a pretty good Tory CV.

I reckon they need to get some foreign blood in.

Staying afloat's ok for the short term but medium term should be looking at getting into Europe.

GSC wrote:Wallace might have more sense than to try and inherit this disaster. They need a spell in opposition to work out the future direction of the party rather than trying to work out one on the fly while in government

All the journos seem to give it the wink wink that there is an open secret about Wallace as to why he didn’t run last time. Wonder if, whatever that is, stops him again.

Galted wrote:

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:

Samo wrote:I’d give it to Steve Bruce until the end of the season.

Got to be Big Sam. His record of saving sinking clubs and his already questionable morals make for a pretty good Tory CV.

I reckon they need to get some foreign blood in.

Staying afloat's ok for the short term but medium term should be looking at getting into Europe.

Thomas Tuchel's free, if we don't mind being run by ze Germans?

JDizzle wrote:

GSC wrote:Wallace might have more sense than to try and inherit this disaster. They need a spell in opposition to work out the future direction of the party rather than trying to work out one on the fly while in government

All the journos seem to give it the wink wink that there is an open secret about Wallace as to why he didn’t run last time. Wonder if, whatever that is, stops him again.

That he is a painted hard boiled egg?

GSC wrote:Rory Delap for Chancellor

Throwing the briefcase from one end of Downing Street to the other.

Galted wrote:I reckon they need to get some foreign blood in.

Staying afloat's ok for the short term but medium term should be looking at getting into Europe.

Do like the idea of them parachuting Angela Merkel into a snap by-election.

Interesting - Graham Brady says this leadership election will be decided by Friday 28th, but he also expects the members to be involved.

Not sure how they'll be involved in such a quick contest and, if they are, it makes further mockery of the incredibly long, drawn-out affair during the summer.

Tugendhat, Gove and Hunt have already ruled themselves out.

Johnson actually topped a members poll that was released a couple of days ago, so him coming back as PM wouldn't be the most bizarre thing to happen.

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:

JDizzle wrote:

GSC wrote:Wallace might have more sense than to try and inherit this disaster. They need a spell in opposition to work out the future direction of the party rather than trying to work out one on the fly while in government

All the journos seem to give it the wink wink that there is an open secret about Wallace as to why he didn’t run last time. Wonder if, whatever that is, stops him again.

That he is a painted hard boiled egg?

To quote Jamie from In the Loop - like a clueless egg Kumquat.

The pound has shot up against the dollar. No doubt due to a number of external factors.

Everything will stay in a state of chaos until there is a general election to put the Conservatives out of their misery. They actually need time in opposition to work out who they are and what they are for.

They are like a mad dog running in circles and biting anybody who gets too close, and there is only one practical course of action.

JuliusHMarx wrote:The pound has shot up against the dollar. No doubt due to a number of external factors.

Shot up by almost a cent.

Odds - Sunak 10/11; Mordaunt 11/8; Wallace 9/1; Johnson 9/1. Then the rest.

The Tory membership got the keys to the car and drove it off a Frak cliff, now we're going to give them the keys again? Not having it. We need a General Election.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:The pound has shot up against the dollar. No doubt due to a number of external factors.

Shot up by almost a cent.

"Pound shoots up as Truss announces resignation" was the headline I read.

Is there anyone competent and humble enough to lead this country without letting ideology, egoism or imperialistic thinking getting in the way?  Let's have diplomacy, trade and no direct involvement for foreign conflict whatsoever.

ps: Realism and pragmatism are also needed - and admitting to past mistakes.

There's only three real ways a GE can happen:

1) New Tory leader wants it and gets the support of some of his/her MPs to vote it through Parliament. Very unlikely as the Tories are trailing by 30% and a GE would be like surrendering to Labour. They'll believe they can turn it around in two years.
2) The MPs that voted for Truss become so disgusted with the way that she has been treated that they leave the Tory Party and form their own group, leaving the new leader without a majority and unable to operate as PM. Very unlikely.
3) General Strike forces the new PM's hand. Also quite unlikely.

BBC Headline: Pound Rallies as PM Resigns.

Bring back the stocks and pillory and place the offending politicians in them.

No name Bertie wrote:Is there anyone competent and humble enough to lead this country without letting ideology, egoism or imperialistic thinking getting in the way?

Yes, but they're not in Parliament.

Duty281 wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:Is there anyone competent and humble enough to lead this country without letting ideology, egoism or imperialistic thinking getting in the way?

Yes, but they're not in Parliament.

So what is your current job Duty?

Sounds like the plan is for the MPs to select 2 candidates as usual and then one drops out to bypass membership. So I guess this will be managed so someone compliant comes second to Rishi

GSC wrote:Sounds like the plan is for the MPs to select 2 candidates as usual and then one drops out to bypass membership. So I guess this will be managed so someone compliant comes second to Rishi

It's going to be a mess. I wouldn't be surprised if they pushed the deadline beyond Friday 28th.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:Is there anyone competent and humble enough to lead this country without letting ideology, egoism or imperialistic thinking getting in the way?

Yes, but they're not in Parliament.

So what is your current job Duty?

Very amusing. Yes, I went too far. There are some MPs in Parliament who might be able to do a good job of leading the country.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:Is there anyone competent and humble enough to lead this country without letting ideology, egoism or imperialistic thinking getting in the way?

Yes, but they're not in Parliament.

So what is your current job Duty?

Very amusing. Yes, I went too far. There are some MPs in Parliament who might be able to do a good job of leading the country.

Yeah, they all sit on the opposition benches.

Samo wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:Is there anyone competent and humble enough to lead this country without letting ideology, egoism or imperialistic thinking getting in the way?

Yes, but they're not in Parliament.

So what is your current job Duty?

Very amusing. Yes, I went too far. There are some MPs in Parliament who might be able to do a good job of leading the country.

Yeah, they all sit on the opposition benches.

Although not the front one.

Duty281 wrote:Johnson will do a Bob Monkhouse - "just when you thought it was safe to turn on your TV again, here I am."

Both the Times and the Daily Telegraph are reporting that Johnson - who was forced to resign as Conservative leader in July following a string of scandals - is preparing to run again for the top job.

Johnson believes it's a matter of "national interest", the Times reports.

Christ, he's actually going to as well.

Johnson as PM, Sunak as Chancellor, it'll be like the past few months haven't happened.

Boris Johnson is expected to stand in the Tory leadership contest to replace his successor Liz Truss, The Telegraph understands.

Boris comes riding back in just so Carrie can redecorate again

Johnson in from 9/1 to 3/1. It's happening.

Well if he makes the top two he'll win. Guess this will be managed in a way that he doesn't

Johnson as a caretaker PM before an imminent general election probably makes sense. Aside from the prestige of having the top job it's a poison chalice for anyone new and career suicide.

As much as I'd like one, I can't see any Tory voting for one. Rather fall in line behind someone.

Would be a complete U-turn if Bojo was suddenly considering the national interest.

I know getting the Tories to vote for a GE is akin to turkeys and Christmas, but they are not governable and they don't have a route to becoming governable. It is going to be chaos.

! appreciate there is no clear mechanism unless enough Tory MP's are prepared to fall on their swords, but there is also no way on earth they can stay in power for 2 more years.

Its worth remembering that Johnson is about to be ripped from bumhole to appetite by the select committee over allegations he mislead parliament - in which case he'll be forced to resign as an MP. If (and its a big if) he becomes PM again he could be out again before the end of the year and we need to go through this whole circus again.

We need a General Election.

Have to feel for Harry and James.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Blue-inside-story-explosive/dp/0008605785/ref=sr_1_1?crid=YYEINLUAP1D8&keywords=out+of+the+blue+liz+truss&qid=1666277039&qu=eyJxc2MiOiIxLjIxIiwicXNhIjoiMS4zMCIsInFzcCI6IjAuMDAifQ%3D%3D&sprefix=out+of+the+blue%2Caps%2C69&sr=8-1

Especially when you notice the release date.

I imagine this contest will be gamed in such a way that Boris has no chance of winning. Something like you have to get a certain amount of votes to make the top 2.

I would guess Sunak with Hunt retained as chancellor. The MPs behave for a spell because there won't be another unity candidate, while anything controversial gets quietly retired. Then they just pray something comes up in the next year.

GSC wrote:I imagine this contest will be gamed in such a way that Boris has no chance of winning. Something like you have to get a certain amount of votes to make the top 2.

I would guess Sunak with Hunt retained as chancellor. The MPs behave for a spell because there won't be another unity candidate, while anything controversial gets quietly retired. Then they just pray something comes up in the next year.

It's very difficult to know. If Johnson proves to be the most popular, or even second most popular, with the MPs, as well as currently being the members favourite (it seems), would Tory HQ really want to cause further ructions and angst in the party by blocking him? Their party is in a very perilous state, and they might remember the last time things were this bad (the end of May's tenure) Johnson was the one who saved them and delivered a huge majority. I'm not sure he can do the same again, mind you!

Will be interesting to see how many backers Johnson gets over the weekend (I'm presuming voting will start on Monday) and the shenanigans that go on. If Johnson can get Sunak out of the way it looks a clear run for him.

Johnson currently has 10 MP supporters, Sunak and Mordaunt with 6 each.

Candidates for the Tory leadership election are expected to need the backing of 100 Tory MPs to run, The Telegraph can reveal.

That is five times the previous threshold of 20 Tory MPs to get on the ballot in the summer contest. It also means only a maximum of three candidates can run.

The details of the contest are just being finalised at an emergency meeting of the Tory party board.

Three candidates - Johnson, Sunak and Mordaunt, presumably, although Mordaunt only just got over the 100 barrier last time with 105 supporters. An alternative may be that the right of the party (113 MPs) may try to unite around one candidate, such as Braverman.

I doubt they can really afford another months long delay for voting, would be pretty hard to justify why there's time for Tory members to have another say but not the public.

Nor can they really afford for Boris to be re elected then thrown into another scandal around his conduct.