2nd QF Ireland v New Zealand - Stade de France, Saint Denis

Ireland: Keenan, Hansen, Ringrose, Aki, Lowe; Sexton (capt), Gibson-Park; Porter, Sheehan, Furlong; Beirne, Henderson; O'Mahony, Van der Flier, Doris.

Replacements: Kelleher, Kilcoyne, Bealham, McCarthy, Conan, Murray, Crowley, O'Brien.

New Zealand: Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Richie Mo'unga, Aaron Smith, Ardie Savea, Sam Cane (c), Shannon Frizell, Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Tyrel Lomax, Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot

Replacements: Dane Coles, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Samuel Whitelock, Dalton Papali'i, Finlay Christie, Damian McKenzie

Referee: Wayne Barnes TMO: Tom Foley

Assistant referees: Matthew Carley and Christophe Ridley

On RWC form and track records, I'd put the NZ side as favourites for this fixture. But Ireland can give it one hell of a chance. Previous RWCs have been epic disappointments. If I'm honest, if NZ play better and win, fair dues to them. I wouldn't hold anything against this Irish squad or coaching ticket for what they've managed to do. It really it an improved tactical awareness, better depth, better experience, etc. Looking forward to a great weekend of fixtures.

I would put Ireland as favourites to win this one. Their form is better and recent head to head is in their favour. All Blacks started well against France, but by the end they looked clueless. That was their only proper test to date.

Ireland just seem like such a well settled and well balanced team. New Zealand seem like a number of very talented individuals in the same side, Foster has juggled them round to get the best of them into that side but they don't seem like a coherent team. Not like they were in 2015. There's still an awful lot of talent in that team though. Should be a good game though Ireland will be favourites for good reason.

Surely the important question is whether Wayne Barnes is refereeing it?

But being more serious…

formerly known as Sam wrote:Ireland just seem like such a well settled and well balanced team. New Zealand seem like a number of very talented individuals in the same side, Foster has juggled them round to get the best of them into that side but they don't seem like a coherent team. Not like they were in 2015. There's still an awful lot of talent in that team though. Should be a good game though Ireland will be favourites for good reason.

… I agree with the first part but not the second. New Zealand’s backline was a mess a year ago with a dilemma about who to play and where to play them. Moving Jordie Barrett to 12, enabling them to have Mo’unga and Beauden on the pitch at the same time, has made that backline tick. Ireland’s backline is brutally efficient, but it doesn’t have the creativity that NZ can muster.

New Zealand’s weak spot, in my view, is the more settled part of their team. Their pack is still good, but it’s not as good as the best packs in the tournament. I fully expect Ireland to have an edge unless the injury toll is high.

I am wondering when we'll hear the referee announcements. The appointments will be interesting considering three classic NH v SH matchups. If Dickson gets a game I'll scream...

Understand that Ireland may be the more balanced team and that the AB's have only faced one real test in France but the AB's are the AB's and could really stretch Ireland in attack. This has close game written all over it and I have no idea which way it will go.

NZ have had an advantage seeing Ireland play both SA and Scotland which were different games. Scotland made no impact at the breakdown or set piece and the Ireland defence coped easily with one out runners and no effective decoys/blockers. Huw Jones at 13 was far too passive and Ireland went round/ through almost every time, whereas Kriel shutdown that channel so Aki saw a lot more ball, carrying back inside, in the SA game.
The NZ scrum probably won't dominate so they might go after the Irish lineout, providing the Irish hookers are stopped from gently shuffling sideways down the Irish line ! It was notable that many of the Irish tries originated from an attacking lineout, so would not surprise if NZ simply don't kick out to reduce the number of Irish lineouts. The breakdown though will be where it is won and lost and NZ look like they might have found the new Kaino at six. The ref appointment, as others have highlighted will have say in who comes out on top.
Some are saying that after this weekend we could get four NH semifinalists, which would be pretty amazing. I also like the fact that the profile is on the top half of the draw, whilst England and Wales keep winning, without most of the time playing particularly well.

Ireland should win. Doesn't mean they will, but the invincible blackness really isn't anymore.

My money is on France for the RWC but I really don't think there is much between them and Ireland, who are the no.1 ranked team for good reasons.

Wayne Barnes in the ref.

Poorfour wrote:Surely the important question is whether Wayne Barnes is refereeing it?

I know it's bad form to quote your own posts, but guess who's just been confirmed as the ref for this game...

Don't see any issues with Barnes reffing

carpet baboon wrote:Don't see any issues with Barnes reffing

Best ref in the world, but I believe Ireland have a poor record with Barnes in the middle.

NZ aren't particularly keen on him either

True! At least this one isn't being played in Cardiff.

I was joking about the All Blacks' bad memories of him in 2007, but on reflection he's a good choice for both sides. In particular, he's probably the best ref at using the TMO, which could be crucial in a game like this.

Duty281 wrote:

carpet baboon wrote:Don't see any issues with Barnes reffing

Best ref in the world, but I believe Ireland have a poor record with Barnes in the middle.

I'm not sure we do. But I'm sure someone has all the stats

carpet baboon wrote:Don't see any issues with Barnes reffing

I do and I dont. My main issue would be that Ireland always cop more penalties when he is ref.

He is whistle happy. I would have had almost anyone but him but at least it isn't Angus Gardner who is even worse.

Of Ireland's 4 pool games Barnes reffed Ireland once and he penalised Ireland 13 times v Tonga which is the most of all our games by four.

Since the last world cup two of Ireland's losses have come when Barnes has been ref twice more than any other ref and of our seven losses in that period only two games have Ireland had more or the same penalties as their opponents and Barnes reffed one of those games.

I also find him a bit pedantic and unpredictable. It probably also doesnt help that he reffed our series win v NZ either when NZ fans were upset that he didnt give Porter a red card. Some refs can over compensate and the Kiwis will be putting pressure on.

I dont know if it will be the reason either side will win or lose but not sure either Ireland nor NZ would want him.

In terms of win rates with Barnes under Farrell Ireland has a 71% win rate which is about our average, this percentage was significantly skewed in Barnes reffed games under past coaches though.

A follow up question.

What are other teams stats with Barnes as ref?
Only if we assess all available data can we make any meaningful judgement.

Still I have no issues with him.

I suppose that as long as Barnes doesn't have a howler in the QF, and that England don't make the final, then Barnes will be refereeing the World Cup final (which would have happened in 2019 if NZ had beaten England), meaning Ireland will have to get used to him if they are going to lift the trophy for the first time.

Duty281 wrote:I suppose that as long as Barnes doesn't have a howler in the QF, and that England don't make the final, then Barnes will be refereeing the World Cup final (which would have happened in 2019 if NZ had beaten England), meaning Ireland will have to get used to him if they are going to lift the trophy for the first time.

I think that's probably the most likely outcome from the next 6 matches.

Collapse2005 wrote:

carpet baboon wrote:Don't see any issues with Barnes reffing

I do and I dont. My main issue would be that Ireland always cop more penalties when he is ref.

He is whistle happy. I would have had almost anyone but him but at least it isn't Angus Gardner who is even worse.

Of Ireland's 4 pool games Barnes reffed Ireland once and he penalised Ireland 13 times v Tonga which is the most of all our games by four.

Since the last world cup two of Ireland's losses have come when Barnes has been ref twice more than any other ref and of our seven losses in that period only two games have Ireland had more or the same penalties as their opponents and Barnes reffed one of those games.

I also find him a bit pedantic and unpredictable. It probably also doesnt help that he reffed our series win v NZ either when NZ fans were upset that he didnt give Porter a red card. Some refs can over compensate and the Kiwis will be putting pressure on.

I dont know if it will be the reason either side will win or lose but not sure either Ireland nor NZ would want him.

In terms of win rates with Barnes under Farrell Ireland has a 71% win rate which is about our average, this percentage was significantly skewed in Barnes reffed games under past coaches though.

Maybe they actually infringed 13 times?

Oakdene wrote:Maybe they actually infringed 13 times?

Speaking as an amateur ref, they probably infringed 26 times, he discounted 4 of them as not material to the play, warned them 6 times and they backed off, missed 3 and penalised 13...

Wayne Barnes . I’m changing my prediction. All Blacks by 50.

I also think some refs are hotter on some areas than others eg clearing out beyond the ruck or 'shielding' line-out jumpers when they land, and if certain teams do these things more often then certain refs will pick them up more than others ...

The main thing is as long as the ref is consistent with both teams, then a team can't complain if they aren't getting away with something that they might do with other refs.

Wayne Barnes! Given the two teams involved, World Rugby have just committed WUMmery of the highest order!

Given the amount of times England seem to get Jonker and previously got Steve 'Pretty Boy' Walsh it does seem they like to stir things up ...

Although the biggest WUM they've already done is let Karl Dickson loose at all ...

Heaf wrote:I also think some refs are hotter on some areas than others eg clearing out beyond the ruck or 'shielding' line-out jumpers when they land, and if certain teams do these things more often then certain refs will pick them up more than others ...

The main thing is as long as the ref is consistent with both teams, then a team can't complain if they aren't getting away with something that they might do with other refs.

Why I dislike having Peyper ref England games - I don't think he's a bad ref, but we always get on the wrong side of him.

Poorfour wrote:

Oakdene wrote:Maybe they actually infringed 13 times?

Speaking as an amateur ref, they probably infringed 26 times, he discounted 4 of them as not material to the play, warned them 6 times and they backed off, missed 3 and penalised 13...

The point is the average number of pens is higher when he refs, almost always so why would you want him?

You probably find 20 more penalties for each side if you look hard enough in every game.

Barnes hasn't had a howler when reffing Ireland for a while which is encouraging but they were very frequent in his earlier days.

Ryan and Hansen didn't train today. Ryan was absent, while Hansen was in the stands.

Earls, Henshaw and Lowe all took part.

Rugby Fan wrote:Ryan and Hansen didn't train today. Ryan was absent, while Hansen was in the stands.

Earls, Henshaw and Lowe all took part.

Team will be announced tomorrow.

Do we think Earls will start or henshaw starts with ringrose on the wing?

Earls to the wing, Aki and Ringrose in the centre and Henshaw on the bench in place of McCloskey if it were me and Earls and Henshaw are fully fit and Hansen or Lowe out.

I thought Henderson and good game against Scotland and don't see a problem in him replacing Ryan. Baird on the bench is a little bit of a risk, but also a tremendous opportunity. Obviously it would be better if Ryan was fit, but at the moment I think there is the depth to cope with it.

There is still a chance that Hansen will make it, Ryan very unlikely though. Lowe would have been huge loss.

Sounds like O'Brien might get the start on the wing. Bloody big game to make your world cup debut in

Lowe would have been a bigger loss than Hansen but it's still not good.

I'm sure Irish fans would hate to even contemplate it, but Ireland are certainly the favourites for this on current form. There's no universe in which they aren't. They also should win, incidentally.

I do not see Ireland as favourites myself, even if ranked number 1. The AB's still remain the team that I fear the most and they also have RWC pedigree which Ireland do not. Not saying that I do not think Ireland cant win because they can its just that I feel the AB's favourites.

George Carlin wrote:Lowe would have been a bigger loss than Hansen but it's still not good.

I'm sure Irish fans would hate to even contemplate it, but Ireland are certainly the favourites for this on current form. There's no universe in which they aren't. They also should win, incidentally.

Agree that Lowe would be a bigger loss but at this stage of the competition injuries are to be expected so we cannot complain. It actually favors Ireland to play their "semi" first and their "quarter" v Wales/Argentina second if they beat NZ as it is harder to deal with extra injuries and fatigue v NZ so I'm happy that we have NZ now as it gives us a better chance to make a final and if we do make a final we might look back and reflect on that being the case.

I also agree that we are favorites and rightly so. It doesn't bother me and I doubt the team will care. You have to back yourself.

eirebilly_01 wrote:I do not see Ireland as favourites myself, even if ranked number 1. The AB's still remain the team that I fear the most and they also have RWC pedigree which Ireland do not. Not saying that I do not think Ireland cant win because they can its just that I feel the AB's favourites.

I dont see it. Too much is made of history and pressure. Ireland has too much experience, form and momentum for that to be a factor.

Of course NZ can beat Ireland and it wouldn't be a shock by any means as both sides are fairly evenly matched, form and recent head to head though justifiably makes Ireland marginal favorites.

Mack Hansen is fit.

Ireland: Keenan; Hansen, Ringrose, Aki, Lowe; Sexton (capt), Gibson-Park; Porter, Sheehan, Furlong; Beirne, Henderson; O'Mahony, Van der Flier, Doris.

Replacements: Kelleher, Kilcoyne, Bealham, McCarthy, Conan, Murray, Crowley, O'Brien.

Ian Henderson in for James Ryan is the only change. Everyone else is fit, yipee!!

Ryan is obviously a big loss but Henderson is a really great guy to bring in.

McCarthy on the bench is an interesting one.

McCarthy and O'Brien. Biggest game of their lives on Saturday.
Can not wait for Saturday

Collapse2005 wrote:

eirebilly_01 wrote:I do not see Ireland as favourites myself, even if ranked number 1. The AB's still remain the team that I fear the most and they also have RWC pedigree which Ireland do not. Not saying that I do not think Ireland cant win because they can its just that I feel the AB's favourites.

I dont see it. Too much is made of history and pressure. Ireland has too much experience, form and momentum for that to be a factor.

Of course NZ can beat Ireland and it wouldn't be a shock by any means as both sides are fairly evenly matched, form and recent head to head though justifiably makes Ireland marginal favorites.

This Ireland team, at least most of them, have played a few games against the ABs and had success - won the last 2 and 5 of the last 8 back to 2016. They are a team in form and that know how to win - I don't think an historic lack of success in RWC knock-out games will weigh heavy on their minds this weeken.

Now, of course the ABs might win - there's not a huge amount between the teams, but I would probably go about 60-40 towards Ireland at the moment.

I do think the Ireland team is one built very much to win now, not with too much of an eye to the future, much like the England 2003 team - whether they succeed or not remains to be seen, but they've certainly in with a chance.

Jeez, I can see this one being tight.

I can make a case for either team but you cannot deny that Ireland are starting as favourites, this is surely the year they get to a RWC semi final.

dummy_half wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

eirebilly_01 wrote:I do not see Ireland as favourites myself, even if ranked number 1. The AB's still remain the team that I fear the most and they also have RWC pedigree which Ireland do not. Not saying that I do not think Ireland cant win because they can its just that I feel the AB's favourites.

I dont see it. Too much is made of history and pressure. Ireland has too much experience, form and momentum for that to be a factor.

Of course NZ can beat Ireland and it wouldn't be a shock by any means as both sides are fairly evenly matched, form and recent head to head though justifiably makes Ireland marginal favorites.

This Ireland team, at least most of them, have played a few games against the ABs and had success - won the last 2 and 5 of the last 8 back to 2016. They are a team in form and that know how to win - I don't think an historic lack of success in RWC knock-out games will weigh heavy on their minds this weeken.

Now, of course the ABs might win - there's not a huge amount between the teams, but I would probably go about 60-40 towards Ireland at the moment.

I do think the Ireland team is one built very much to win now, not with too much of an eye to the future, much like the England 2003 team - whether they succeed or not remains to be seen, but they've certainly in with a chance.

Id probably see it more as 55/45 Ireland with Ireland taking a 10 point win. It will need to be around 10 to shut the ABs out cause they can score from anywhere.

Collapse2005 wrote:Ian Henderson in for James Ryan is the only change. Everyone else is fit, yipee!!

Ryan is obviously a big loss but Henderson is a really great guy to bring in.

McCarthy on the bench is an interesting one.

Henderson started against Scotland not Ryan - the starting 15 is the same as against Scotland.
McCarthy and O'Brien on the bench for Ryan and McCloskey are the only changes.

McCarthy is obvious - Ryan injured.
My take on O'Brien for McCloskey is the management is not 100% about Hansen and this time Crowley is covering both 10 and 12.

Thats true but Ryan was on the bench but wont be this time. Think You are probably right about O'Brien.

Oakdene wrote:Jeez, I can see this one being tight.

I can make a case for either team but you cannot deny that Ireland are starting as favourites, this is surely the year they get to a RWC semi final.

Should be a France vs Ireland final if form and rankings are anything to go by. I could see France taking that one though due to home advantage.