England's Winter of Cricket 2023/24
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England's Winter of Cricket 2023/24
I haven't seen a ball from today. Not sure I want to seeing the scorecard.
I woke up early for work, checked the score, saw the collapse, felt sad. Then didn't look again until after close.
It all looked so promising for a moment.
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Re: England's Winter of Cricket 2023/24
Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:Duty281 wrote:
I read a laughable article in The Telegraph recently about how England don't need major surgery as they build towards the next Ashes. But they do. By the time of The Ashes, we have no clue of who will be leading that bowling attack, who the main spinner will be, who the keeper will be, whether Pope will last as a number three, whether Duckett/Crawley are going to last the course as half decent openers, and whether Stokes' body will ensure he can still lead by that time. Over half this side are over 30!
Huge problems ahead. And I'm not sure England will address this because they probably believe half the nonsense they spout to the press.
I don't really see the batting issues - Crawley/Duckett/Pope have been in the XI for 2 years straight now, and Duckett/Pope in particular have very stand up records and Crawley has just come off back to back very impressive series against the two best bowling attacks in the world. I don't really see why there would be huge question marks over them taking that forward either...
In fact I'd say the top 5, barring unforeseen disaster, is fairly set with Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook.
Do think it's valid to question Stokes's fitness always - he's had a very poor series with the bat here (his record in subcontinental conditions is poor, only one century of his 13 in tests has come in India/Sri Lanka/Pakistan/UAE, and even that came in a game in 2016 which featured six hundreds, and 500 playing 500 in a drawn game). I see he did make himself unavailable for the IPL in 2024, presumably he is back into ODI retirement too...so hoping he is going to start managing some rest between test series for the remainder of his time. Would be great if he could get himself to a point where he can offer 5-10 overs a day with the ball.
Keeper question, for me, is the biggest one facing the side currently. As discussed before, I think this summer presents a great opportunity for England to pick and blood one of the young talented crop with a view to getting a fair few tests under their belt before the 2025 schedule. I have heard fairly reliably that Bairstow was the man to miss out if Brook was available for this series, and that England aren't 100% happy with his fitness since the leg injury...so I sense he might be on the outside looking in after this game.
My view on Foakes is well stated at this point - average has now dipped below 30, he hasn't improved since his debut 6 years ago in my opinion with the bat, and while obviously a good keeper, I don't think we're in a spot to carry him in the batting lineup.
I am slightly less down on the bowling attack question than you, but it is a valid one. I suspect Jimmy will be aiming for one final tour Down Under, or at worst the 2025 summer home series (and who would bet against the great man!), but we really could use Robinson shaping up and "getting it" as unlikely as that is appearing by the week at this point. Hoping to see more of Potts this summer, as fancy he could go well Down Under, and by all accounts has worked hard and taken a step forward this winter.
Duckett is tailing off a little. Crawley's certainly doing fine, whether Crawley can maintain this improvement over a long run remains to be seen. Pope's averaging under 30 in his last 9 tests (excluding Ireland) and has only one 50+ score in that time, so he's on a fallow run and it remains to be seen whether he'll pull himself back this summer. Root and Brook, obviously no problems. Except, possibly, for Brook's off the field issue which took him out of this entire tour.
Keeper issue is indeed the big one. I'm not convinced Robinson is going to be an upgrade on Foakes with the bat. The one who might be is Rew, but his SR is a concern, and he had an utterly torrid time against India A this winter, indicating he might not be ready for the step up.
If Jimmy does make it to Australia again, which is a hell of an ask because he'll be 43 then, it might not count for much because he has always struggled in Australia. I had hoped, as many others did, that Robinson would step up and lead once Anderson/Broad departed, but that seems to be for the birds. Potts is the one I'm mainly hinging hopes on now, though I wonder what game time he'll get this summer with Anderson and Woakes likely to lead the attack, supplemented by Wood, Robinson and possibly Atkinson.
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alfie wrote:Anyway we are coming to the end of a very bad day for England - nearly the worst of the series , given the conditions ? And this does look increasingly like an innings defeat unless things happen dramatically tomorrow (they have had some good second days so one can hope , perhaps) . But I'm off away tomorrow so will leave it to you lot to try and engineer an amazing comeback...
Think I will just congratulate KP_fan and Msp in advance
alfie thx.
msp...make no mistakes, that ain't no congratulations, not yet.
That is an attempt to put a jinx
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KP_fan wrote:alfie wrote:Anyway we are coming to the end of a very bad day for England - nearly the worst of the series , given the conditions ? And this does look increasingly like an innings defeat unless things happen dramatically tomorrow (they have had some good second days so one can hope , perhaps) . But I'm off away tomorrow so will leave it to you lot to try and engineer an amazing comeback...
Think I will just congratulate KP_fan and Msp in advance
alfie thx.
msp...make no mistakes, that ain't no congratulations, not yet.
That is an attempt to put a jinx
That's true although it is a desperate attempt by a desperate man.
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Duty281 wrote:
...
... Pope's averaging under 30 in his last 9 tests (excluding Ireland) and has only one 50+ score in that time, so he's on a fallow run and it remains to be seen whether he'll pull himself back this summer. ...
Keeper issue is indeed the big one. I'm not convinced Robinson is going to be an upgrade on Foakes with the bat. The one who might be is Rew, but his SR is a concern, and he had an utterly torrid time against India A this winter, indicating he might not be ready for the step up.
...
I was going to make a very similar point as Duty to Olly about Pope. Last 18 Test innings from the beginning of 2023, he's averaging 39.2. Not earth shattering but ok. However, if you ignore his 205 against Ireland (and don't think it's wholly unfair to do so), that average drops to 29.4; and that's with his 196 against India in T1 included, his only 50+ score in that time apart from Ireland.
The above doesn't mean he has to go but it's why I'm not entirely relaxed about his place and so am looking for improvement or alternatives.
Tbf, his place hasn't been harmed by the poor showings with the bat this series of Bairstow and Foakes, neither of whom have reached 50. Having made it 100 caps, I wonder if Jonny might soon call it a day as regards Tests.
Olly and I share similar reservations about Foakes. Very good gloveman but poor with reviews. Classical batsman but lacking ability to give it some welly and bat with the tail. I'm not backtracking on those concerns and looking for a new keeper is fine with me. However, anyone selected this summer should be chosen because they are good enough this summer rather than in a hope they will be good enough in 2025. By all means, a new keeper can and hopefully will improve by 2025 but he still needs to be good enough in 2024 if that's when he's starting. With less than a month to the new Championship season, it's almost time for the likes of Robinson and Rew to impress.
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Re: England's Winter of Cricket 2023/24
Rohit played a nice hand up front, took his chances, but was measured throughout that innings. It was good to see the skipper a bit exasperated when young Jaiswal got that rush of blood and gave it away, Rohit can have a chat with the youngster, based on his own experience more than anything else!! Shubman Gill looked his most comfortable in this series. Hopefully, he and Rohit can continue the same way tomorrow, give the first hour to the bowler particularly if there is some movement for Anderson, and then cash in... The Indian batting in this series, has largely been dependent on Jaiswal though Jadeja, Rohit, Jurel, along with Gill stepped up at crucial points. So if Anderson can get the ball to talk in morning conditions and nip out a couple early, they may hope to limit the damage...
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Re: England's Winter of Cricket 2023/24
India in total domination and Eng ineffective
Glance to the right of leg gully from Rohit, was the only half chance of the hour
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As Rohit and now Gill get to 100s
After around half an hour this morning when Gill clobbered Jimmy for sixes and two fours and Rohit 2 sixes the over before that.....Stokes had seemingly started thinking when declaration will come.
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Stokes is a miracle-man, anything is possible as long as he has beliefVTR wrote:Can we now say this is over and not be accused of an attempted jinx?
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Good to see Stokes bowl....a giant step towards Eng's balance
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VTR wrote:Can we now say this is over and not be accused of an attempted jinx?
that was a seemingly successful jinx
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Stokes needs to give him and himself more close catch-ins....additional slip and bat pad
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Plays late, gets right behind the line of ball, leans into the drives with head on top of the ball
Had some edges when he came & when ball was reversing ...but those went along the ground.
So far so good.
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But Wood could not sustain that pressure and drive the nail in further. He has been a surprising disappointment.
With his speed, I expected him to find reverse and use it potently
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KP_fan wrote:VTR wrote:Can we now say this is over and not be accused of an attempted jinx?
that was a seemingly successful jinx
Well it's bought a couple of wickets, but England really do need that miracle still, from Stokes or otherwise!
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VTR wrote:Duty281 wrote:I'd go for Atkinson as much for the reason that Wood isn't in good form, and hasn't been all winter. Wood's played two tests in this series and bowled three wicketless innings. Just one decent spell in Rajkot is all he's done on this tour.
4-1 India would be a fair reflection, I'd say.
That's what I was thinking, and the fact he's made of glass. Doesn't seem worth the risk in the pursuit of a 3-2 defeat!
0/83 from 13 overs! Horrendous winter for Wood, kinda fitting it ends this way.
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Jaiswal will rue not converting but sarafraz it will be feeling the hurt of not converting
When Kohli and KL are back, he will be out, but had he scored a 165 today, then Kohli / KL would be under pressure of keeping a deserving Sarfaraz out.
That won't happen now with his 50s
Padikal on the other hand needs to go on and convert and create more good chaos for selections
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VTR wrote:Always want to see England players do well, but really makes the Wood selection worse. The guy is likely one more injury away from the end of his career. What is the point on him flogging himself on flat decks like this in a dead rubber? This is against a backdrop of other high pace options such as Archer and Stone possibly never playing again. Anyone know what Amjad Khan is up to these days.
And almost incredibly, Wood was one of the very few to get a 3 year central contract when they were given late last year.
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VTR wrote:Blimey, who else was on the list, Darren Anderton?
Btw, I hope Duty knew that already. I don't want to be responsible for sending him totally over the edge.
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Can England rap this up quickly? Then someone will have to do an Oliver Pope...
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India has not closed all doors, windows and cracks to snuff out all of Eng's chances even due to freak innings and miracles.
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Does look like Anderson is nearly finished, unfortunately. Averaged 54 in his last eight tests, even his fabled economy is beginning to tick upwards (in this series his economy has been above 3, the first time that's happened since 2018). He might have enough for one more home summer against middling opposition, but after that....
India have perhaps missed out on 600+, which looked likely at 376/3 at tea, but unless England conjure up 450+ in the third innings it's still game over. Maybe Pope will find another miracle? Or Bairstow can be told it's 2016.
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Bumrah test batting average v England = 12.06 (6 innings of 19+, including today)
Never change, England, never change.
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Duty281 wrote:Bumrah test batting average v opposition that are not England = 3.85 (High score of 14)
Bumrah test batting average v England = 12.06 (6 innings of 19+, including today)
Never change, England, never change.
I've had a very busy couple of days so I've barely watched a ball of this Test yet to be honest. Was it a case of bowling poorly to Kuldeep and Bumrah? Or them batting quite well for their positions? Or most likely just the XI being cooked?
When running the numbers over the summer, I believe that England's record against the last 4 wickets has generally been really good under Stokes. Much improved on the previous regime and IIRC one of the best averages in that period. I'd need to run the queries on statsguru again to get an updated look at it though. I'll hopefully get a chance this evening.
I've long found the expectation around the tail batting really interesting with how it feeds into fans views of that though. We all expect our own tail to wag. If 8-11 capitulate then it is usually viewed as very limp and a massive weakness. A deep batting lineup is viewed by almost all fans as safe. Whereas we simultaneously expect our bowlers to blast through the opposition 8-11 like blindfolded rabbits with no hand eye coordination that they must be!
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Re: England's Winter of Cricket 2023/24
Duty281 wrote:Bumrah test batting average v opposition that are not England = 3.85 (High score of 14)
Bumrah test batting average v England = 12.06 (6 innings of 19+, including today)
Never change, England, never change.
Give Credit to Bumrah......finds Eng the toughest opponent and raises his level of game against them
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Home advantage in Tests is already gigantic. A 5 Test series tends to exaggerate that as the home sides reserve players usually aren't that much worse in those familiar conditions when compared to the first choice XI. India's 4th choice spinner at the start was Kuldeep for instance. Brilliant bowler. Sarfaraz is clearly a marvellous player in these conditions. As is Jurel. Similar with Aussie batters who thrive on the steeper bounce in Oz or nibbling seamers in England. Hence the home side can keep players fitter and cover absentees far better. By the 5th Test, you usually see the away side looking absolutely burst and hence don't get the best spectacle.
3 Test series feels like the sweet spot to me in the vast majority of matchups. Occasionally 4 Tests can work well. I've thought for quite a while now that England in Oz being 5 Tests, "because it's the Ashes", probably harms Test cricket more than it helps. The latter Tests in those series are usually a sorry affair.
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king_carlos wrote:Duty281 wrote:Bumrah test batting average v opposition that are not England = 3.85 (High score of 14)
Bumrah test batting average v England = 12.06 (6 innings of 19+, including today)
Never change, England, never change.
I've had a very busy couple of days so I've barely watched a ball of this Test yet to be honest. Was it a case of bowling poorly to Kuldeep and Bumrah? Or them batting quite well for their positions? Or most likely just the XI being cooked?
When running the numbers over the summer, I believe that England's record against the last 4 wickets has generally been really good under Stokes. Much improved on the previous regime and IIRC one of the best averages in that period. I'd need to run the queries on statsguru again to get an updated look at it though. I'll hopefully get a chance this evening.
I've long found the expectation around the tail batting really interesting with how it feeds into fans views of that though. We all expect our own tail to wag. If 8-11 capitulate then it is usually viewed as very limp and a massive weakness. A deep batting lineup is viewed by almost all fans as safe. Whereas we simultaneously expect our bowlers to blast through the opposition 8-11 like blindfolded rabbits with no hand eye coordination that they must be!
Generally down to England being cooked.
I'm not sure England's bowling to the tail is that great, but I'm not sure on the figures.
On expectation, it depends. I expect England's tail to resist if it's the likes of Robinson, Woakes, Hartley, Wood, but don't expect much from the likes of Bashir or Anderson. I don't expect England to blast through, necessarily, but they do make certain bats look better than they are, which is especially true of Bumrah. Bumrah is a number 11 against anyone else. Against England's he's almost a 9.
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Re: England's Winter of Cricket 2023/24
India - 16.79
SA - 17.50
England - 18.39
Australia - 18.77
NZ - 20.88
Sri Lanka - 21.03
Bangladesh - 22.29
Pakistan - 22.44
Windies - 24.06
Batting average per dismissal from wickets 7-10 since June 2022:
Sri Lanka - 22.49
NZ - 22.31
England - 21.89
India - 20.39
Pakistan - 20.10
Australia - 19.09
Bangladesh - 16.23
Windies - 15.61
SA - 14.50
(Ireland, Zimbabwe and Afghanistan have small sample sizes hence I haven't listed their averages but games played against them are included in the above)
So England a comfortable 3rd in both batting and bowling from wickets 7-10 since the start of Bazball. Obviously, plenty goes into these numbers to make them relative. Pitches that they were played on, opposition, etc. It's an interesting overview though.
India being comfortably the best at bowling to the tail I find interesting as generally I think spin is what most tailenders look clueless against.
New Zealand (22.31) and Sri Lanka (22.49) have the best batting averages from the tail in that time from the Test nations with a decent sample size. In a way impressively, Sri Lanka only had 1 century partnership and 4 half-century partnerships in that period but still the highest average. Whereas NZ, their closest rival in terms of average, had 2 century and 10 half-century partnerships! So Sri Lanka must have just been chipping away with small partnerships almost constantly from the lower order.
England have the most 50 and 100 partnerships from the tail in that time but also the most Tests, so somewhat to be expected.
I was a bit surprised to see Australia at 19.09/dismissal with the bat given that Cummins and Starc should be giving them constant depth there.
The Windies differential of 8.5 between batting and bowling is pretty dire though. That's close to a 70 run average swing away from them because of the tail across a Test match. Ouchies.
SA are really poor with the bat but very good with the ball. Given their bowling heavy selection with a huge tail, that makes a lot of sense though.
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Re: England's Winter of Cricket 2023/24
And then the worst of Bazballing, mad rush by Duckett and Pope, Crawley ends the tour with a nought, as does Stokes done thru the gate.
And in between that Root steady with proper cricket and Bairstow probably indicating " I have had enuf of test cricket"
A few balls spun, but pitch ain't a minefield or anywhere close to it.
Last session of the series coming up I think
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Last edited by VTR on Sat Mar 09, 2024 7:25 am; edited 2 times in total
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Edit: they fell just short
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Glass 20% full positive view for Eng would be, they pulled one in their favor and had moments in T2 snd T4 where they were ahead and India on the ground
The glass 80% empty view is somewhere at the mid point of series they got muddled in whether to live to their reputational definition of Bazbal or be seen as taking a backward step and play normal cricket aligned to thr situation.
From that point Eng ended up doing neither correctly.
Last 3 innings were 148, 218 and 195 confirming the effect of muddled thinking.
Not discussed enuf but a significant factor was Eng outbowled by India in seam deptt.
Going forward the test of character will be if Stokes & Mccullum remain in denial and try to fluff their way out with Wordsmithy..
We entertained, we taught them bazbal, DRS killed us , we will still chase down 600 etc...
It's not easy to make a U Turn on a proudly touted principle, and they don't have to do it now and they don't even have to announce it.
Eng need to imbibe the lessons in their tests going forward that it cannot be just one gear machine.
And clear the cobwebs of muddled thinking they develoed by trying to change approach mid series.
Bashir, Hartley, Crawley are positives.
Root & Duckett go back in balance
Remaining Eng players disappointed.
For India Patidar, Mukesh, Iyer, Bharat , axar were disappointments.
Jurel, jaiswal, Gill, sarafaraz, Padikal, akashdeep, Rohit, kuldeep were positives ie going with reputation enhanced.
Remaining did OK.
Rohit grew as a captain and coming out of shackles of Dravid's clerical, methodical bookkeeping type approach.
Eng's test season will start sooner and they will have to rethink Bairstow, Foakes, Anderson and Pope's places.
India will write off Axar, Bharat, Patidar for good and Mukesh from home games.
Healthy headaches when Kohli, KL and Pant are back
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Olly - if you are able to do your usual individual England player ratings, that would be much appreciated. And at risk of pushing my luck, it would be interesting if you could (briefly) do India as well for comparison. Thanks.
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