Premiership Rugby Round 17 - Holy Cow, Stolen Base

by doctor_grey Fri 10 May 2024, 10:08 am

OK, Meat Loaf is all I got on a Friday morn at 5:00am. Happy Friday!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C11MzbEcHlw

Round 17 (May 10-11)*
Friday 10 May
· 19:45 – Newcastle Falcons v Bath Rugby – PRTV Live or discovery+
· 19:45 – Sale Sharks v Leicester Tigers – TNT Sports
Saturday 11 May
· 15:05 – Bristol Bears v Saracens – TNT Sports
· 15:05 – Northampton Saints v Gloucester Rugby – PRTV Live or discovery+
· 17:30 – Exeter Chiefs v Harlequins – TNT Sports
*Broadcast selections subject to change, kick-off times will remain the same.

Teams		Pts	P	W	D	L	PF	Avg PF	PA	Avg PA	Diff
1	Northampton	55	16	11	0	5	453	28	410	26	43
2	Saracens	51	16	10	0	6	471	29	347	22	124
3	Bath	50	16	9	0	7	440	28	384	24	56
4	Harlequins	49	16	9	0	7	432	27	409	26	23
5	Bristol	49	16	10	0	6	518	32	378	24	140
6	Sale	47	16	10	0	6	359	22	352	22	7
7	Exeter	45	16	9	0	7	432	27	371	23	61
8	Leicester	40	16	8	0	8	373	23	355	22	18
9	Gloucester	27	16	4	0	12	346	22	491	31	-145
10	Newcastle	5	16	0	0	16	222	14	549	34	-327

by Geordie Fri 10 May 2024, 11:15 am

Newcastle Falcons team v Bath Rugby (Friday, 7.45pm, Kingston Park, live on PRTV)

15 Louis Brown,
14 Adam Radwan,
13 Matias Moroni,
12 Cameron Hutchison,
11 Ben Redshaw,
10 Brett Connon,
9 Sam Stuart;
1 Adam Brocklebank,
2 Jamie Blamire,
3 Eduardo Bello,
4 Tim Cardall,
5 Sebastian de Chaves,
6 Sam Cross,
7 Guy Pepper,
8 Callum Chick (captain).

Replacements: 16 Bryan Byrne, 17 Mark Dormer, 18 Richard Palframan, 19 John Hawkins, 20 Freddie Lockwood, 21 James Elliott, 22 Rory Jennings, 23 Oli Spencer.

Not available for selection: Phil Brantingham, Murray McCallum, Kiran McDonald, Elliott Obatoyinbo, Hugh O’Sullivan, Tom Penny, Pedro Rubiolo, Ben Stevenson, Philip van der Walt.

Bath Rugby:
15 Matt Gallagher,
14 Joe Cokanasiga,
13 Ollie Lawrence,
12 Cameron Redpath,
11 Will Muir,
10 Finn Russell,
9 Ben Spencer (captain);
1 Beno Obano,
2 Tom Dunn,
3 Thomas du Toit,
4 Quinn Roux,
5 Charlie Ewels,
6 Ted Hill,
7 Sam Underhill,
8 Alfie Barbeary.

Replacements: 16 Niall Annett, 17 Juan Schoeman, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Jacques du Plessis, 20 Miles Reid, 21 Louis Schreuder, 22 Orlando Bailey, 23 Josh Bayliss.

Referee: Tom Foley.

by Geordie Fri 10 May 2024, 11:18 am

I think we'll get royally humped tonight finish as the worst team in the prem history (or is it Rotherham)...then can draw a line in the sand and begin from scratch next season...we'll win games next season.

Big exodus to be announced today aswell....

by doctor_grey Fri 10 May 2024, 12:08 pm

Geordie wrote:I think we'll get royally humped tonight finish as the worst team in the prem history (or is it Rotherham)...then can draw a line in the sand and begin from scratch next season...we'll win games next season.

Big exodus to be announced today aswell....

I think there are big differences between the Rotherham situation and that of Newcastle. Fundamentally, Rotherham was not prepared for the Premiership nor had any of the finances and facilities needed to make a go of it. The Rotherham situation gave impetus to the minimum ground requirements, which I agree were, and are, needed. I think Newcastle is still trying to get past the Covid issues, which we all need them to do. At what point does the RFU and/or the Premiership look at a key member of the league and assist with more financing, business plan, and so on?

by formerly known as Sam Fri 10 May 2024, 12:48 pm

Sale Sharks Starting XV:  

15. Sam James, 14. Tom Roebuck, 13. Rob du Preez, 12. Manu Tuilagi, 11. Tom O’Flaherty, 10. George Ford, 9. Gus Warr, 1. Bevan Rodd, 2. Tommy Taylor, 3. James Harper, 4. Cobus Wiese, 5. Hyron Andrews, 6. Ben Curry

, 7. Sam Dugdale, 8. JL du Preez.  

Replacements:  

16. Agustin Creevy, 17. Si McIntyre, 18. WillGriff John, 19. Ben Bamber, 20. Ernst van Rhyn, 21. Raffi Quirke, 22. Rekeiti Ma’asi White, 23. Arron Reed.

Tigers

STARTING XV

15 Freddie Steward [86]
14 Jamie Shillcock [25]
13 Matt Scott [78]
12 Dan Kelly [79]
11 Ollie Hassell-Collins [20]
10 Handré Pollard [31]
9 Jack van Poortvliet [71]
1 Francois van Wyk [52]
2 Charlie Clare [93]
3 Dan Cole [321]
4 George Martin [64]
5 Harry Wells [197]
6 Hanro Liebenberg (C) [105]
7 Tommy Reffell [112]
8 Jasper Wiese [77]

REPLACEMENTS

16 Nic Dolly [31]
17 James Whitcombe [50]
18 Joe Heyes [139]
19 Finn Carnduff [12]
20 Olly Cracknell [41]
21 Tom Whiteley [28]
22 Phil Cokanasiga [18]
23 Solomone Kata [17]

Nice to see Nic Dolly getting a run out before he heads back to Aus. No idea why we are bothering with van Wyk and Cokanasiga as they are both average and leaving at the end of the season. Could have given Whitcombe and one of the development backs a go.

by Geordie Fri 10 May 2024, 12:58 pm

Is Dan Cole the record Cap holder for Tigers...321?

by formerly known as Sam Fri 10 May 2024, 1:53 pm

Geordie wrote:Is Dan Cole the record Cap holder for Tigers...321?

Prem games yes but I think Graham Rowntree finished on 390 something.

by doctor_grey Fri 10 May 2024, 1:56 pm

THE NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs GLOUCESTER RUGBY
Franklin’s Gardens
Kick-off: 3.05pm BST, 10:00am EDT

Referee: Ian Tempest
Assistant referees: Adam Leal and Dan Jones
No. 4: John Meredith
TMO: Rowan Kitt

US
15 George Furbank
14 George Hendy
13 Tommy Freeman
12 Fraser Dingwall
11 Ollie Sleightholme
10 Fin Smith
9 Alex Mitchell

1 Alex Waller
2 Curtis Langdon
3 Trevor Davison
4 Alex Moon
5 Alex Coles
6 Courtney Lawes (c)
7 Angus Scott-Young
8 Juarno Augustus

Replacements:
16 Sam Matavesi
17 Emmanuel Iyogun
18 Elliot Millar Mills
19 Temo Mayanavanua
20 Sam Graham
21 Tom James
22 Burger Odendaal
23 Tom Seabrook

Not available for selection:
Callum Braley, Rory Hutchinson, Lewis Ludlam, Tom Pearson and James Ramm.

THEM:
15 Josh Hathaway
14 Alex Hearle
13 Louis Hillman-Cooper
12 Jack Reeves
11 Jake Morris
10 Charlie Atkinson
9 Stephen Varney

1 Harry Elrington
2 Santi Socino
3 Ciaran Knight
4 Arthur Clark
5 Freddie Thomas
6 Albert Tuisue
7 Lewis Ludlow (c)
8 Jack Clement.

Replacements:
16 Sam Scarfe
17 Mayco Vivas
18 Fraser Balmain
19 Danny Eite
20 Rob Nixon
21 Charlie Chapman
22 Morgan Adderly-Jones
23 Ioan Jones

by doctor_grey Fri 10 May 2024, 4:29 pm

Saints are putting out a lineup to really go for it. I like it. Only shame is Ludlum is missing the game. He is a core part of the team and adds so much. So if Saints get through Gloucester with 5 points, he will have a nice rest before the playoffs.

by WELL-PAST-IT Fri 10 May 2024, 6:59 pm

doctor_grey wrote:THE NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs GLOUCESTER RUGBY
Franklin’s Gardens
Kick-off: 3.05pm BST, 10:00am EDT

Referee: Ian Tempest
Assistant referees: Adam Leal and Dan Jones
No. 4: John Meredith
TMO: Rowan Kitt

US
15 George Furbank
14 George Hendy
13 Tommy Freeman
12 Fraser Dingwall
11 Ollie Sleightholme
10 Fin Smith
9 Alex Mitchell

1 Alex Waller
2 Curtis Langdon
3 Trevor Davison
4 Alex Moon
5 Alex Coles
6 Courtney Lawes (c)
7 Angus Scott-Young
8 Juarno Augustus

Replacements:
16 Sam Matavesi
17 Emmanuel Iyogun
18 Elliot Millar Mills
19 Temo Mayanavanua
20 Sam Graham
21 Tom James
22 Burger Odendaal
23 Tom Seabrook

Not available for selection:
Callum Braley, Rory Hutchinson, Lewis Ludlam, Tom Pearson and James Ramm.

THEM:
15 Josh Hathaway
14 Alex Hearle
13 Louis Hillman-Cooper
12 Jack Reeves
11 Jake Morris
10 Charlie Atkinson
9 Stephen Varney

1 Harry Elrington
2 Santi Socino
3 Ciaran Knight
4 Arthur Clark
5 Freddie Thomas
6 Albert Tuisue
7 Lewis Ludlow (c)
8 Jack Clement.

Replacements:
16 Sam Scarfe
17 Mayco Vivas
18 Fraser Balmain
19 Danny Eite
20 Rob Nixon
21 Charlie Chapman
22 Morgan Adderly-Jones
23 Ioan Jones

Thats about as good as it gets with the players available, for most clubs that would be a ridiculously strong bench and then 4 internationals not available. That backline has pace in spades, It's a good job I am on holiday next week, my boss is a Gloucester supporter. I think he is going to be very miserable.

by doctor_grey Fri 10 May 2024, 8:37 pm

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:
doctor_grey wrote:THE NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs GLOUCESTER RUGBY
Franklin’s Gardens
Kick-off: 3.05pm BST, 10:00am EDT

Referee: Ian Tempest
Assistant referees: Adam Leal and Dan Jones
No. 4: John Meredith
TMO: Rowan Kitt

US
15 George Furbank
14 George Hendy
13 Tommy Freeman
12 Fraser Dingwall
11 Ollie Sleightholme
10 Fin Smith
9 Alex Mitchell

1 Alex Waller
2 Curtis Langdon
3 Trevor Davison
4 Alex Moon
5 Alex Coles
6 Courtney Lawes (c)
7 Angus Scott-Young
8 Juarno Augustus

Replacements:
16 Sam Matavesi
17 Emmanuel Iyogun
18 Elliot Millar Mills
19 Temo Mayanavanua
20 Sam Graham
21 Tom James
22 Burger Odendaal
23 Tom Seabrook

Not available for selection:
Callum Braley, Rory Hutchinson, Lewis Ludlam, Tom Pearson and James Ramm.

THEM:
15 Josh Hathaway
14 Alex Hearle
13 Louis Hillman-Cooper
12 Jack Reeves
11 Jake Morris
10 Charlie Atkinson
9 Stephen Varney

1 Harry Elrington
2 Santi Socino
3 Ciaran Knight
4 Arthur Clark
5 Freddie Thomas
6 Albert Tuisue
7 Lewis Ludlow (c)
8 Jack Clement.

Replacements:
16 Sam Scarfe
17 Mayco Vivas
18 Fraser Balmain
19 Danny Eite
20 Rob Nixon
21 Charlie Chapman
22 Morgan Adderly-Jones
23 Ioan Jones

Thats about as good as it gets with the players available, for most clubs that would be a ridiculously strong bench and then 4 internationals not available. That backline has pace in spades, It's a good job I am on holiday next week, my boss is a Gloucester supporter. I think he is going to be very miserable.

Well, I bloody well hope so!

The thought that just occurred to me is that Saints are putting out a back line which could, in theory, be the England back line in the not too distant future. And being captained by one of the best players in club history. I am still trying to wrap my head around this season. Someone must have put something in the water in the Shire....

by formerly known as Sam Fri 10 May 2024, 9:13 pm

Another uninspiring display from Tigers. Had moments of promise in the first half but second half has been incredibly poor. Pollard going off injured hasn't helped but feels like some players are very much carrying some of the others.

by doctor_grey Fri 10 May 2024, 10:00 pm

formerly known as Sam wrote:Another uninspiring display from Tigers. Had moments of promise in the first half but second half has been incredibly poor. Pollard going off injured hasn't helped but feels like some players are very much carrying some of the others.

I think Hassell-Collins going off early with that yellow didn't help.

by formerly known as Sam Fri 10 May 2024, 10:26 pm

doctor_grey wrote:
formerly known as Sam wrote:Another uninspiring display from Tigers. Had moments of promise in the first half but second half has been incredibly poor. Pollard going off injured hasn't helped but feels like some players are very much carrying some of the others.
I think Hassell-Collins going off early with that yellow didn't help.

Yeah probably didn't. Somewhat mystified by how the TMO didn't spot the clearout to the head of Cole about a minute before.

We conceded more on the other side of the pitch where Shillcock demonstrated that playing fullback doesn't mean you understand the positioning for wing it seems. Still the Charlie Clare horror show from hooker and van Wyk being unable to keep up his side of the scrum also did more damage.

Not sure if Sale ran out of steam or decided to be oddly conservative after their fourth try. They played some lovely stuff at times in the first half. Freeing up Ford from standing at first receiver so that he could dictate play and step in to distribute further out added a lot to the attack.

by Geordie Sat 11 May 2024, 7:52 am

Bath have tremendous back rowers....but Guy Pepper could genuinely be world class. They have signed a fabulous young player and I'm gutted we've lost him so young.

by WELL-PAST-IT Sat 11 May 2024, 3:50 pm

Saints running riot at the moment, nearly a point a minute. 6 tries so far. coming up to half time. Furbs, Dings, Sleights, Langdon 2, Mitchell

by WELL-PAST-IT Sat 11 May 2024, 3:54 pm

If two teams finish with the same number of points, what is the stat used to decide who is above who, points difference?

by WELL-PAST-IT Sat 11 May 2024, 4:20 pm

Getting embarrassing now, 54-0 after 50 minutes

by WELL-PAST-IT Sat 11 May 2024, 4:31 pm

Sorry, I looked away for a second to see the Sarries score, now 61-0, no 68-0 hard to keep up.

by doctor_grey Sat 11 May 2024, 4:34 pm

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:Sorry, I looked away for a second to see the Sarries score, now 61-0, no 68-0 hard to keep up.

Jeez, enough is enough already. Can't believe this is a Premiership game. Time to just worry about getting finished with no injuries.

edit. up to 80-0.

by WELL-PAST-IT Sat 11 May 2024, 4:39 pm

Oh my goodness, 80-0 Sleightholme with a hat trick

by WELL-PAST-IT Sat 11 May 2024, 4:44 pm

85-0, I have to face my boss in a weeks time, dyed in the wool Gloucester supporter. I think I will pretend this game did not take place. 90-0 now.

Is that a record for a Prem game?

by doctor_grey Sat 11 May 2024, 4:45 pm

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:Oh my goodness, 80-0 Sleightholme with a hat trick

85 90. And almost 900 metres.

by Heaf Sat 11 May 2024, 4:51 pm

Going for the ton maybe?

by WELL-PAST-IT Sat 11 May 2024, 4:52 pm

The embarrassment is over, 90 - 0. Gloucester did not even get close to scoring a try.

Did our points difference no end of good though.

by doctor_grey Sat 11 May 2024, 4:58 pm

To me, Gloucester did not come to play. Shame, really. Though I am glad Saints got through the match.

by Welshmushroom Sat 11 May 2024, 5:09 pm

Has any pro side ever lost by 90 points? must be some sort of record?

by geoff999rugby Sat 11 May 2024, 5:26 pm

Bulls were critised here for their performance in European and not taking the competition seriously.
They lost be 37 points.

Gloucester lost by 90 points - shameful.
They may well have a European final coming up but I note
their opponents Sharks ( who have nothing to play for) lost their match today by 1 point, due to a last minute try.
They made an effort

by Welshmushroom Sat 11 May 2024, 5:42 pm

Meanwhile Lions already 14 up against Cardiff.....they could be getting a 5 pointer as well today at this rate.

by Heaf Sat 11 May 2024, 5:43 pm

Welshmushroom wrote:Has any pro side ever lost by 90 points? must be some sort of record?

Commentary team said they were getting close to the record at one point but I'm not sure what the score was at that point - don't think they said what the actual record is ...

by Welshmushroom Sat 11 May 2024, 5:49 pm

news now articles are now showing it was a record defeat - guessing a premiership record. But I doubt any club side since the pro era has been beaten in any league by that.

Northampton are class but no pro side should lose by 90-0. Not if you are getting paid as a pro.

Clearly they are just focusing on the Challenge Cup but I'm not sure if this is their prep it will help them. Sharks will give them a run for their money I think.

by mikey_dragon Sat 11 May 2024, 7:27 pm

It doesn’t look good for Glaws. Sharks aren’t in great form this season but they have enough class in their team to take the final, and will likely step up.

by doctor_grey Sat 11 May 2024, 7:30 pm

That's the largest winning margin I can recall between professional club sides (URC/Celtic league, Premiership, Super Rugby, Top 14).

Only similar score line I recall was in Super Rugby between Bulls and Reds a long time ago. Bulls over the Reds by 92-3.

Interesting note, the Reds coach was Eddie Jones. Also, Bulls fans used to sing a part of a song called Liefling (Darling) whenever Derrick Hougaard came up to kick a conversion. I thought they would never stop singing...
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/reds-humiliated-in-92-3-loss-20070506-ge8n7m.html

by formerly known as Sam Sat 11 May 2024, 7:56 pm

mikey_dragon wrote:It doesn’t look good for Glaws. Sharks aren’t in great form this season but they have enough class in their team to take the final, and will likely step up.

The Glaws team that started today will have maybe two or three that will start Vs the Sharks. It will be double digits in terms of changes.

by mikey_dragon Sat 11 May 2024, 8:08 pm

formerly known as Sam wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:It doesn’t look good for Glaws. Sharks aren’t in great form this season but they have enough class in their team to take the final, and will likely step up.

The Glaws team that started today will have maybe two or three that will start Vs the Sharks. It will be double digits in terms of changes.

That I’m aware of. Don’t you look at the likely Sharks team and assume they’ll win though?

by Welshmushroom Sat 11 May 2024, 8:18 pm

Sharks look like they have 2 bad injuries after todays match to Kock and Etzebeth

by doctor_grey Sat 11 May 2024, 9:08 pm

mikey_dragon wrote:
formerly known as Sam wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:It doesn’t look good for Glaws. Sharks aren’t in great form this season but they have enough class in their team to take the final, and will likely step up.

The Glaws team that started today will have maybe two or three that will start Vs the Sharks. It will be double digits in terms of changes.

That I’m aware of. Don’t you look at the likely Sharks team and assume they’ll win though?

Hard to tell, Sharks have had a poor season. But so has Gloucester (even excluding today).

by Geordie Sun 12 May 2024, 7:08 am

Welshmushroom wrote:Has any pro side ever lost by 90 points? must be some sort of record?

Not even the falcons this season ha ha ha ha ha

by Geordie Sun 12 May 2024, 7:11 am

mikey_dragon wrote:
formerly known as Sam wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:It doesn’t look good for Glaws. Sharks aren’t in great form this season but they have enough class in their team to take the final, and will likely step up.

The Glaws team that started today will have maybe two or three that will start Vs the Sharks. It will be double digits in terms of changes.

That I’m aware of. Don’t you look at the likely Sharks team and assume they’ll win though?

Gloucester will win....

by mountain man Sun 12 May 2024, 8:54 am

Saints v Glos a ridiculous scoreline. Beyond embarrassing.

I watched 2nd half of Sarries Bristol and looked a good game. Daly in fairness had a corker.

by Geordie Sun 12 May 2024, 9:44 am

Daly always has a good game .he's a class act

by mountain man Sun 12 May 2024, 9:46 am

Well not really, no player does. Everyone has an off day (Dupont excepted maybe). Daly is a class act though, especially for club.

by **Rugby Fan** Sun 12 May 2024, 1:46 pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2024/05/12/premiership-play-off-permutation-how-to-make-top-four/

A quick reminder of the Premiership’s (realistic) tie-breakers:

Matches won
Points difference
Number of points for

1. Northampton Saints
Final fixture: Bath (a)

Mentioned here given that top spot is still in play, although it would be secured with victory at Bath. If that does not happen and Northampton lose then it comes to bonus points and finishing ahead of Saracens, who currently have a better points difference.

Why does top spot matter given Northampton have already guaranteed a home semi-final on Friday May 31? Because facing the fourth-placed side in the semi-finals is supposed to be easier.

Here’s a poignant statistic – no team has ever won the Premiership after finishing the season in third place. There have however been two fourth-placed winners – Saracens in 2015 and Harlequins in 2021.

2. Saracens
Final fixture: Sale (h)

Suddenly have a lot of people asking them for favours, playing at home against fourth-placed Sale.

As mentioned, they can find a way to sneak into first, but also must win in order to secure second and a home semi-final given Bath (one point back) and Sale (four) can theoretically pip them to that spot. Having a vastly superior points difference than both of those teams is handy.

3. Bath
Final fixture: Northampton (h)

Cannot finish top even if they secured a bonus-point win and denied Northampton anything to finish level on 60 points, given Saints in that scenario would still have more wins (12 v 11). Second place is very much in play if Bath win and Sale stop Saracens, but if Bath and Saracens finish level on points then Saracens hold the advantage with more wins and a better points difference.

From there it gets interesting. Say that Bath were to lose with no bonus points and Exeter win at Leicester with a bonus point to tie them on 55 points, then Exeter would hold the advantage having won more matches. If the same events happened but with Harlequins, it would come down to points difference where Bath have a healthy cushion.

Which is all a long way of saying that Bath could still miss out on the play-offs, in theory. One bonus point against Northampton would put them out of Exeter and Harlequins’ reach.

4. Sale Sharks
Final fixture: Saracens (a)

Would have helped Sale enormously if Saracens already had a home semi-final or top spot wrapped up, but instead they will be getting Saracens at full strength. They have also only ever won once at the StoneX, in the Premiership Rugby Cup back in 2019.

Three teams are breathing down their neck – Exeter, Harlequins and Bristol. A win at Saracens brushes them all off and secures a semi-final spot. A defeat at Saracens and wins for any of Exeter, Harlequins and Bristol would knock Sale out of the top four. Should it come down to bonus points – or draws – then in terms of finishing level on points and tie-breakers...

Sale have one more win than Exeter but a far worse points difference (+16 to +93)
They have two more wins than Harlequins and a marginally better points difference (+16 to -9)
Sale have one more win than Bristol and a significantly worse points difference (+16 to +119)

If that all sounds a bit negative focusing on how Sale could be knocked out of the play-offs, let us end on a positive – they can still finish second. A win over Saracens to finish level with their hosts on 56 points would give Sale the tie-breaker on match wins (12 to 11), although they would have to deny Saracens a losing or try bonus point and also require Bath to not pick up two bonus points in a defeat by Northampton.

5. Exeter Chiefs
Final fixture: Leicester (a)

In a healthy position in terms of their points difference and poised to strike if Sale lose at Saracens. The assumption seems to be that Exeter will beat Leicester, given Tigers have won one of their last six and that was against Newcastle Falcons.

Exeter could take third place from Bath if they finished level on points thanks to more match wins, if Bath lost at home to Northampton with no bonus points.

The fixtures, with Bath and Sale having to face the league’s top two on the final day, certainly work in Exeter’s favour if they can hold up their end of the bargain.

6. Harlequins
Final fixture: Bristol (h)

Incredible if that late Louis Lynagh try for a bonus point at Sandy Park ends up being the difference. It keeps Harlequins in the mix but their points difference is horrid, which is why catching Bath in third is close to impossible.

Sale can be overtaken on league points but any tie-breakers would get ugly, given Harlequins have two fewer wins than Sale and a worse points difference. But the real problem for Harlequins is Exeter’s trip to struggling Leicester.

What if, in the race for fourth, Sale lose at Saracens and Exeter and Harlequins both pick up bonus point wins to finish on 55? Exeter would have the edge over Harlequins, given more match wins.

There is a crazy outcome where Exeter and Harlequins make the top four at the expense of Bath and Sale, but Harlequins would need a wild points differential swing with Bath to make that happen given they are currently on -9 and Bath are on +67.

7. Bristol Bears
Final fixture: Harlequins (a)

Here are the positives – more wins than Harlequins and a very healthy points difference for any tie-breakers.

Ideally, Bristol need Sale and Exeter to lose while defeating Harlequins at the Stoop. Here is how things would play out in a scenario where Bristol win but end up in a tie-breaker for fourth:

Bristol would have the edge on Sale given their points difference (+119 to +16) assuming Sale lose at Saracens (both on 11 wins)
With Exeter, it is close. Both sides are currently on 10 wins and their points difference is tight (+119 to +93)

Harlequins and Bristol are essentially in a shoot-out. This might seem ridiculous, but, if Exeter and Sale lost, and Harlequins and Bristol ended up drawing with try bonus points to put them both on 53, (above Sale and Exeter), then Bristol would have the tie-breaker on more match wins (10 to nine).

by **Rugby Fan** Tue 14 May 2024, 4:42 pm

MacGinty has is out after his HIA against Saracens. Sheedy likely to take the 10 Poopie against Quins.

by doctor_grey Tue 14 May 2024, 5:54 pm

Rugby Fan wrote:MacGinty has is out after his HIA against Saracens. Sheedy likely to take the 10 Poopie against Quins.

Kind of an interesting thought about MacGinty and Sheedy. I get a chance to watch MacGinty somewhat more closely than many 10s because he is the USA Eagles number 1 Fly Half. Some years ago, he seemed to me not much more than a decent club level pro. But he has certainly grown into the role and is now a good solid pro who can cut the mustard at international levels. And can be a difference maker.

On the other hand, I don't think Sheedy has become the player I thought he could morph into. But he is still a decent professional and the drop off from McGinty is not so big.

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