Scotland vs The Springboks

Scotland vs South Africa

Date: Sunday 10th November 2024
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 4:10pm
Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
TV Coverage: Live on TNT Sports

Teams

Scotland

South Africa

So

bad news from camp is both our injured wingers are gubbed for Saturday.

my guess is 11. Duhan 14. Reed 15. Blairhorn

I miss Steyn.

Oh no that’s bad news! Shame for Graham and Rowe. Massive moment for Reed if selected but perhaps Paterson will now get a shot?

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tombola spat out a 6/2 bench with Dobie starting on the wing and Jordan and Stafford benching.

I am kinda nervous about this one. Need to see the Bok team

Well Til confirmed Darcy definitely out, he failed his 2 following HIAs so out for at least 12 days. I suspect we won't see him till the Oz game.

Better news for Rowe, injury not as bad as suspected and maybe fit for the Boks, but it sounds pretty unlikely that they will take a chance on him.

Toonie was also asked about Hogg at the press conference. Unsurprisingly he pointed out the limitations of what he could say about an ongoing court case but made a point of condemning all kinds of abuse.

In the circumstances, that was probably all that could be expected. Maybe something else post sentencing but as he is no longer an employee it will likely only be in general terms.

Difficult selection dilemma for Toonie here.

Hastings and Jordan both played well last weekend but it is almost inconceivable that Russell won't start, so both playing for a bench spot, unless he starts one of them at FB in Graham and Rowe's likely absence.

Hastings is the more experienced performer but Jordan potentially the more versatile, especially on a likely 6:2 bench.

You could likely say the same about Horne and Dobie at SH as well.

Could we see Dobie starting on the wing or Jordan at FB?

Big shame about Darcy and Rowe.

IMO we should go with the least disruptive change which means Kinghorn at 15 and a new winter in. If he's fit I'd go Patterson!

RDW wrote:Big shame about Darcy and Rowe.

IMO we should go with the least disruptive change which means Kinghorn at 15 and a new winter in. If he's fit I'd go Patterson!

I terms of experience and form, I am very confident he would pick Dobie on the wing over Patterson currently.

BigGee wrote:

RDW wrote:Big shame about Darcy and Rowe.

IMO we should go with the least disruptive change which means Kinghorn at 15 and a new winter in. If he's fit I'd go Patterson!

I terms of experience and form, I am very confident he would pick Dobie on the wing over Patterson currently.

Dobie does a job for Glasgow there but this is the Springboks! Far from ideal that Patterson has barely played but he is at least a winger.

Even if we pick Reed, we need players to play in their actual positions.

Dobie has played a lot more on the wing for Glasgow over the past few seasons than he has at SH, including getting picked over established wingers and is much more experienced at this level than Patterson. I think he can do more than 'just a job'

I watched the game last night as we were in Greece at the weekend. My gut feeling is that he will pick Jordan at FB though, who I thought had a really good debut and looked very comfortable. The fact that he got a decent run out and not just a cameo will have helped on that front as well.

I think he will want him involved and it will allow Hastings, who also played very well, to bench.

If Jordan plays fullback and has a stormer that would be fantastic for the competition in that position. Kinghorn needs pressure to perform and having himself, Jordan and Paterson all jostling for a starting jersey would be fantastic. Hilarious Jordan is starting his Scotland career out of position given Toonie said he saw him mostly as a fly half.

Whilst it's entirely possibly (even probable) Jordon starts at FB at the weekend, it would be a hell of a starting debut, out of position against the Boks.

He did well against a weakened Fiji team, but I'd be concerned with him starting there on Sunday. Not a reflection on him as he is undoubtably a quality player, but he's quality at FH and centre.

Logically, to try and keep players playing in their actual positions, it should be a back 3 of Duhan, Kinghorn and Reed (assuming Rowe isn't fit).

You know lads, I think we're getting ourselves into a right two and eight over nothing. Let's consider what we know;
Toonie likes a 6/2 bench.
The pack will be, more or less, the one from the Fiji game.
If Rowe is fit then it's Duhan-Blarehorn-Mullet in the back three.
Ashman and Richardson will be the hookers. Toonie has painted himself into a corner here; the third choice hooker is way too inexperienced to face the Boks, Ashman was poor against Fiji and we have no fourth choice.
Dancer will start.
So, the only questions are; HOW THE Frak DID TRUMP WIN??????, Wombat or Suzz as LH replacement. Who will be TH replacement? An extra back row or second row on the bench?

15. Blarehorn
14. Mullet
13. Huw Jones
12. Sione Tuipulotu CAPTAIN
11. Duhan van der Merwe

10. Dancer
9. Hornito
1. Pierre Schoeman
2. Dylan Richardson
3. Zander Fagerson
4. Grant Gilchrist
5. Scott Cummings
6. Matt Fagerson
7. Rory Darge
8. Jack Dempsey

Replacements

16. Ashman
17. Wombat
18. D’Arcy Rae
19. Max Williamson
20. Gregor Brown – Glasgow Warriors (3)
21. Jamie Dobie – Glasgow Warriors (6)
22. Tom Jordan – Glasgow Warriors (uncapped)
23. It's either another back row (Mbawza) to keep up the high tempo game or a second row (Alex Samuels) I think Gregor Brown can slot into the second row so we may see another back row ? Mbawza, Bayliss?

If the Mullet misses out then I think it's Dobie on the wing and Jordan and Stafford as the two backs' replacements.
Toonie would be wise to use Glasgow's recent successes against South African sides as his template. This is why I expect Hornito to start rather than White. If Dobie is on the wing then we don't need a 9 on the bench and Jordan can cover 10, Stafford can cover 12.13 & 15.Or Shug can play 15.

On back-up tighthead, Rae has not been rated by Townsend in the past and Millar-Mills will be available. I can see him being selected to back up Zander

For the scrum halves, Ben White is the incumbent starter and has started a few times for Toulon this season including against Toulouse. Would not be surprised for White to start leaving G Horne to bench.

Overall, it is quite a settled side. Only have 2-3 positions to really quibble about (and Gilchrist but he somehow keeps being selected beyond his use case)

I wonder with Rae getting regular gametime at Edinburgh if that will push him up the pecking order again.

In the past he's struggled to get games with his club, but he's pretty regular with us. I've not been impressed with him previously, but he's actually looking like he could do a job now. To be clear the drop from Fagerson to him is massive, but he's adequate and has performed well (all things considered) at Edinburgh.

In terms of Gilco, he's been a hell of a servant to club and country, but I think I would look at trying a Cummings & Williamson combo. Toonie won't though.

Not sure how many on here listen to the rugby podcast with Burkey and Tom English because yesterday's one was certainly an interesting listen .

First thing to pick out is that Andy thinks both teams would prefer a dry day rather than wet and windy. The other is that Tom actually thinks the backs will be the same as last week (though he'd have to change now DG is out, bear on mind the pod was recorded on Tuesday) and that he would go with Williamson over Gilchrist due to his physicality. The last interesting thing to pick out was Tom certain that it'll be 5-3 on the bench .

I hate these games. The gassy nausea. The misplaced optimism. Toonie's Disappointed Potato Face at the end. I'm not sure that I can watch.

George Carlin wrote:I hate these games. The gassy nausea. The misplaced optimism. Toonie's Disappointed Potato Face at the end. I'm not sure that I can watch.

Tbf I have absolutely no expectations of Scotland so can only be pleasantly surprised!

If we can be competitive that's at least a marked improvement. The likely outcome seems to be a ground out springboks victory with maybe 5 points in it.

George Carlin wrote:I hate these games. The gassy nausea. The misplaced optimism. Toonie's Disappointed Potato Face at the end. I'm not sure that I can watch.

I'll be travelling up sans optimism. I will be cocooned in the certainty of mortifying defeat. The humbling at the hands of the Boks will be chastening.
We're doomed. Doomed I say.

As long as we give it a lash.

Mind, if we start Williamson. Hornito at 9. House Elf on the wing. Blarehorn avec le elan Francais. Ragnar with the smell of napalm and Johnson's baby powder in his nostrils...We're winning. Easy.

TJ to start at fullback, Blair to Darcy's wing

Tramptastic wrote:TJ to start at fullback, Blair to Darcy's wing

Given the fact that Tramptastic has more moles than George Smiley we should take this as gospel.
So

9. ??
10. Dancer ( even Toonie isn't Tombola enough to start anyone else)
11. Duhan
12&13 The Shug'n'Shona show.
14. Blarehorn.
15. Another Worldclass Player frae Ayr.

This would suggest a 9 & 10 on the bench; Haircut for the 10, I think House Elf for the 9. Here's my logic: if we lose a centre then TJ goes to 12. Blarehorn slips back to 15 and hey presto Dobie to wing. But if it's a 5/3 split we can have Stafford there and he's a centre.
6/2 split gives us an extra bit of grunt in the last 20 minutes. But means either Hornito or White to miss out.
5/3 split; we can have both White and Hornito, more pace in the backs in the last 20...but no Dobie.
I'd go 6/2 with Dobie.

Ditto Jimbo

Huge moment for Jordan, what a way to win your first start. It’s an exciting lineup on paper but we’ll have to see how the Boks front up. They had a weeks training in Jersey of all places before hopping over to Edinburgh this week.

15. Tom Jordan – Glasgow Warriors (1)
14. Blair Kinghorn – Toulouse (53)
13. Huw Jones – Glasgow Warriors (51)
12. Sione Tuipulotu – Glasgow Warriors (28) CAPTAIN
11. Duhan van der Merwe – Edinburgh Rugby (42)

10. Finn Russell – Bath Rugby (80) VICE-CAPTAIN
9. Ben White – Toulon (22)

1. Pierre Schoeman – Edinburgh Rugby (35)
2. Ewan Ashman – Edinburgh Rugby (20)
3. Zander Fagerson – Glasgow Warriors (68)
4. Grant Gilchrist – Edinburgh Rugby (73)
5. Scott Cummings – Glasgow Warriors (40)
6. Matt Fagerson – Glasgow Warriors (48)
7. Rory Darge – Glasgow Warriors (23) VICE-CAPTAIN
8. Jack Dempsey – Glasgow Warriors (21)

Replacements

16. Dylan Richardson – The Sharks (4)
17. Rory Sutherland – Glasgow Warriors (33)
18. Elliot Millar Mills – Northampton Saints (5)
19. Max Williamson – Glasgow Warriors (5)
20. Josh Bayliss – Bath Rugby (7)
21. Jamie Ritchie – Edinburgh Rugby (52)
22. Jamie Dobie – Glasgow Warriors (7)
23. Stafford McDowall – Glasgow Warriors (6)

Starting XV looks good. Sadly, from the bench, Millar Mills and Ritchie against Steenkamp and Peter SDT, not so much.

Springbok team to face Scotland in Edinburgh:
15 – Willie le Roux (Vodacom Bulls) – 97 caps, 75 pts (15t)
14 – Canan Moodie (Vodacom Bulls) – 11 caps, 25 pts (5t)
13 – Lukhanyo Am (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 40 caps, 35 pts (7t)
12 – Andre Esterhuizen (Hollywoodbets Sharks) - 18 caps, 0 pts
11 – Makazole Mapimpi (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 45 caps, 150 points (30t)
10 – Handre Pollard (Leicester Tigers) – 77 caps, 755 points (7t, 105c, 165p, 5dg)
9 – Jaden Hendrikse (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 18 caps, 19 pts (2t, 3c, 1p)

8 – Kwagga Smith (Shizuoka Blue Revs) – 49 caps, 45 points (9t)
7 – Elrigh Louw (Vodacom Bulls) – 10 caps, 0 points
6 – Marco van Staden (Vodacom Bulls) – 23 caps, 10 pts (2t)
5 – Franco Mostert (Honda Heat) – 76 caps, 15 points (3t)
4 – Eben Etzebeth (captain, Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 128 caps, 30 points (6t)
3 – Thomas du Toit (Bath) – 21 caps, 0 pts
2 – Bongi Mbonambi (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 75 caps, 75 points (15t)
1 – Ox Nche (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 37 caps, 0 points

Replacements:
16 – Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears) – 73 caps, 105 points (21t)
17 – Gerhard Steenekamp (Vodacom Bulls) – 8 caps, 0 points
18 – Vincent Koch (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 58 caps, 0 points
19 – RG Snyman (Leinster) – 37 caps, 10 points (2t)
20 – Siya Kolisi (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 89 caps, 60 points (12t)
21 – Pieter-Steph du Toit (Toyota Verblitz) – 84 caps, 55 points (11t)
22 – Jasper Wiese (Urayasu D-Rocks) – 31 caps, 5 points (1t)
23 – Grant Williams (Hollywoodbets Sharks) – 15 caps, 10 points (2t)

Not a fan of the TJ decision but at least we have a 6:2 split on the bench and a proper no 8 option. Bayliss should be able to up the pace when he comes on. Zander needs to play 70 high quality minutes which we knew beforehand.

Not overly impressed when I have seen Du Toit play and it does feel like he is at least a half-step down from Koch. The Saffas look a little on the lighter side to start with (relative to them) as much as I like Kwagga. What happens if Esterhuizen gets injured or has to come off? The 7:1 split is going too far.

Feel alright about our chances against the Springboks which probably means Zander gets injured in the first five minutes and we lose by 20+ when SA replace the entire pack except Etzebeth.

That’s a bat sh*t crazy bench from SA. Can one of their 9’s drop into flyhalf? Hazel im guessing that pollard can cover centre if need be. Can’t say I’ve seen him play there though. Any SA injuries could make this a really interesting match. Kind of wish we went with a 5:3 split now but both Bayliss and Ritchie at their best are excellent in the loose, plus Ritchie has really good hands. Needs to win some turnovers for us on Sunday.

Bit tough on Hastings, who played well last weekend, but with TJ, Blairhorn and Russell on the pitch, we certainly don't need another FH.

Dobie provides the versatility on the bench and you also feel he might be creeping ahead of Horne in Toonie mindset.

The 7 1 split is a risk for the Boks, but it seemed to work OK last time they tried it. That is some bench they have, we had better not give them a lead!

I'd presume le Roux would step into 10 if Pollard were injured. Pollard has played a bit at centre. Grant Williams can cover wing. Kwagga has shifted into the backs for them before with little trouble. Kwagga's fast for a Sevens player after all!

In reality, the Boks defensive system puts the biggest strain on their wingers. So if they're comfortable with the wing cover, then they can push Kwagga or Kolisi into centre defensively with effectively no change to the blitz. Lukhanyo Am could also cover wing in their system. He's defensively brilliant.

It's a ludicrous bench. Marx, Snymam, PsdT, Kolisi and Wiese. If you put one of those, let alone 5, onto most teams benches it would significantly lift the potential impact.

I think we will score a try or two and push them but in the last 20 we will get steamrollered

Myself I am happy with the selection. TJ looked totally at home playing against Fiji and IIRC hew has played full back a fair bit. Haircut can do a job there but Finn is only coming off if injured so we don't need a 10 on the bench

You know what, I'm actually not that frightening by the Bok starting team. I reckon we can give them a good game.

That bench though....

As well as harsh on Hastings also what about George Horne? He has really struggled for game time under Toonie.

bsando wrote:As well as harsh on Hastings also what about George Horne? He has really struggled for game time under Toonie.

Well you can't say he has not had his opportunities.

There is a different naunce to Test Rugby and for all his talents, GH never seems to quite mastered it, at least in the eyes of the Scottish coaches.

For all his open field brilliance, sometimes the basics of his game can be found wanting and that can be magnified at Test level.

RDW wrote:You know what, I'm actually not that frightening by the Bok starting team. I reckon we can give them a good game.

That bench though....

We'd better be in the lead at HT then

RDW wrote:You know what, I'm actually not that frightening by the Bok starting team. I reckon we can give them a good game.

That bench though....

It really shows the depth that the starting XV is still that good though, even if it isn't as terrifying a prospect as full strength Boks. The starting backline is missing Faf, de Allende, Kolbe and Arendse. They still haven't picked Kriel, Reinach or Libbok in the 23. Malherbe, the best scrummaging TH in rugby, is missing but they haven't needed to go back to RWC finalist Nyakane, who's still playing well. Lood de Jager hasn't played in a couple of years too, sadly. Even benching a first choice back row, they've got two brilliant players there in Kwagga and van Staden. The talent in this SA generation has been nuts.

The only thing that's really going to annoy me is if we continue with the west to east to west strategy that the Bok blitz categorically strangled at the world cup. Surely Toonie isn't that stupid?

We typically beat the Saffers once every 10 years (last in 2010) and whilst I don't think it's going to be this year we might get within a score.

I am not mad at the TJ experiment. He's a talented footballer with pace, so let's see how that goes. Am just delighted Fagerson the Younger is playing. Proof that new dads will do just about anything to get out of the house to 'run errands'.

This made me laugh:
"Erasmus had thought Russell might be on the home bench"

Did he really think that? Our only world class player might be benched?

It's just mad that we have a 23 that doesn't include: Hornito, Haircut, Seaman, ADHD, Mullet, Bajnjo and Ollie Smith. The latter had better earn himself a nickname PDQ.

Actually,
9. Hornito
10. Haircut
11. Mullet
12. Stafford
13. Seaman
14.Mullet
15. Banjo
Not too shabby.

This ref is guff. Any momentum is snuffed out quickly.

Need to get smart quickly.

Surprised that one was upgraded!

Harsh red there.

Duty281 wrote:Surprised that one was upgraded!

The same offence had Charlie Ewels seeing red when England played Japan this summer.

This is the problem with 20 min RCs, it just means the officials will be more likely to give them.

They will be more likely to ruin games than before

Well, that's our afternoon over I think... Boks warmed up now.

This ref.. Mr tv magic... Honestly this is ridiculous now

Not a lot of quality from SA, except with some bits of magic in the Scotland 22. It's enough.

Difficult to see Scotland coming back with that monster bench ready for SA.

It's about keeping the scoreline respectable I think. If we don't fire a shot in the second half I think that would be another demoralising loss.

Where did Jordan knock on?

SA the better team with them owning us at the set piece

But this ref has been utter dug shyte. Calls a blue foot kicking the ball on and then after 2 secs decides to give a knock on an SA get a scrum. Replay showed it was indeed a blue boot that kicked it on. SA all over the floor and nothing.

The worst was when SA dove ontk Jordan on the ground, no penalty but it’s was the exact same as the penalty against Kinghorn earlier.

We’ve lost this because SA are just bigger and stronger and we’re struggling to fire a shot on them.

But this ref has been utter dug shyte