Why are the Blues Written Off?

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The general conscenus it seems from many on 606 is that the Cardiff Blues simply don't have the players to compete and could/should suffer for it next season. Looking at their squad I would say that I think they although they lack some depth, they have a very competant starting XV and good talented reserves in some areas.

To me their best XV is:

01 Gethin Jenkins
02 Rhys Thomas
03 Scott Andrews
04 Bradley Davies
05 Mike Paterson
06 Andreus Pretorious
07 Sam Warburton
08 Xavier Rush
09 Richie Rees
10 Dan Parks
11 Tom James
12 Casey Laulala
13 Jamie Roberts
14 Leigh Halfpenny
15 Dan Fish

16 Gareth Williams
17 John Yapp
18 Taufa'ao Filise
19 Paul Tito
20 Martyn Williams
21 Lloyd Williams
22 Ceri Sweeney
23 Dafydd Hewitt

To me that team is certainly capable of topping a Heineken Cup pool with London Irish, Edinburgh and Racing Metro. They wouldn't be favourites nor would it be easy but they are capable of 5 victories in that group.

It is a fairly strong and very experienced bench in many areas and in addition players like Deniol Jones, Ben Blair and Maama Molitika can be called upon outside that. The trouble is that compared to other Welsh regions, in fact compared to other Magners League teams there just doesn't seem to be a functioning conveyour belt of young players coming into the team. I think developing the promising Dan Fish is something that needs to be looked at, as does giving young Welsh players the chance at playing in the Magners Leauge. The Blues have not recruited this year so I am really hoping to see more young players like Warburton and Fish get game time.

You may have noticed I have Roberts and Laulala at 13 and 12 instead of the other way around. I can never figure out why they have the creative Laulala playing off the more abrasive Roberts. Yes, Roberts earned his crust back in 2009 as a very good 12 but I think the Blues best chance of success is having Laulala creating chances for Roberts to explode onto from deep and at pace.

Although Parks has talents the Blues need to consider if they are compatible with the team. He is written off by many but I think if the grizzled Blues pack can keep him on the front foot he will be able to compete. Developing younger options especially at flyhalf is a must especially with Parks away most of the season opener due to World Cup committments.

This Blues side are capable of a 4th place finish and Heinken Cup quarter finals. They may not make it there but they are capable of doing it.

Artful_Dodger wrote:Dont see Blues doing much next season and the reasons have already been mainly pointed out. Top 4 in the Magners is very unlikely for me as I think Leinster, Munster and Ulster will all be there again.

The Blues tight 5 looks very lightweight, teams with a big scrum will hurt them which is what happened a lot last season. The other predicament is how to get the ball to the centres and back 3 with Parks at 10. On top of this they have made almost no signings and are losing their head coach. So new coach coming into a team that struggles for physicality upfront and a backline that isnt scoring tries.

Where are the signings??

All in all I see a poor season ahead for the Blues despite the luck of the draw theyve had with their HC group.

I agree, we NEED a new THP and 10, when that happens we will have a decent side, if Adam Jones and James Hook were at the Blues we would be enough to worry any team, thats whats is frustrating from a fans point of view - we are only a few class players short. :/

There will be NO NEW SIGNINGS next season due to BUDGET CUTS after we failed to reach the last 8 of the HC - hopefully if we do it this year there will be some money freed up for next season.

Dreamer - they need to look at Scarlets and Ospreys as 2 good examples IMO. Although I'll be writing a more indepth article about it soon I think Scarlets have done fantastic work recently and embraced their stand alone status depsite a lot of mud slinging. I was critical initially but they will yield results. Ospreys are indeed the one true region but why would Blues want to be a reigon when regions are so unpopular.

I think the money problems are more to do with the recession than the move to CCS (although that certainly hasnt helped) for example, I know that the Blues main sponsors EADS have reduced their funding, and not getting to the HC 1/4s cost us TV money which was the reason cited for reducing the squad.

Stag - after all the infighting between O's and Neath....not quite sure how you can say they are the one true region at the moment.

Scarlets have done all this "fantastic work" at the moment because we've had to. We were neck high in financial Poopie after some really stupid decisions and we payed the price badly for a couple of seasons. We are only just now coming out of it, but we still can't afford to buy in the players that we really need. We've got a long way to go yet.

Agree the Blues could look at us and even the Dragons to see the way forward. The only thing at the mo I would look to the O's for is their academy, it is the best one of the regions right now.

rugbydreamer wrote:Stag - after all the infighting between O's and Neath....not quite sure how you can say they are the one true region at the moment.

Scarlets have done all this "fantastic work" at the moment because we've had to. We were neck high in financial Poopie after some really stupid decisions and we payed the price badly for a couple of seasons. We are only just now coming out of it, but we still can't afford to buy in the players that we really need. We've got a long way to go yet.

Agree the Blues could look at us and even the Dragons to see the way forward. The only thing at the mo I would look to the O's for is their academy, it is the best one of the regions right now.

At the moment yes but they have embraced Regionalism well and really threw away the shackles of the clubs quite early (certainly from outside looking in).

Scarlets have decided to remain as Llanelli in all but name. Removing Llanelli from the title and the move from Stradley were initially unpopular but I feel in long run will make them more marketable. They have got up to 2,500 season ticket holders this year I believe and are using initatives like the Scarlets Way (which Munster have used previously) and the shareholder initative (which I believe Tigers have used). They have also been able to build a culture despite the changes in place. I think they have a way to go but are on the right track. Rather than paying rent to a soccer team, they have had the likes of Man Utd coming to pay them rent. I have been quite impressed by them.

Artful_Dodger wrote:Does anybody think, what if Nicky Robinson had never left for Gloucester....?

No. I think he's currently very over-rated and a clear example of how fickle many people are. He only played well during his final season in Cardiff. In the many season that preceded it he was seen as eternally frustrating, a misfiring player for a misfiring Blues side. Ever since he left, he seems to have sank into mythology and folklore for some reason I fail to understand.

rugbydreamer wrote:

Scarlets have done all this "fantastic work" at the moment because we've had to. We were neck high in financial Poopie after some really stupid decisions and we payed the price badly for a couple of seasons. We are only just now coming out of it, but we still can't afford to buy in the players that we really need. We've got a long way to go yet.

.

I agree, I bet the Scarlets would LOVE to bring in a few top quality forward - especially in the second row! - There was a rumour they were going to sign Ian Evan, but it never really came to anything - Id love to see him at the Blues though

The Scarlets have managed to bring through youth very well, but, I think they were lucky that all their players were able to step up so well, and even then they had several years of terrible results before last season.

I want to see the Blues bring through more youth, but keep more of the experienced players as a scaffold for the new team. Its important that we keep hold of our young Welsh players as we look to develop and cut costs.

What Scarlets need now is an outside influence. A NWQ impressive second row (Like Muller when he came to Ulster) would be amazing for them.

We do most definitely need a 2nd row. It's the one position really in our academy where we are struggling to produce local home grown talent (a bit like the Blues' woes at FH Wales606!)

Stag - I think there's one thing you need to realise about the Scarlets. Llanelli have essentially always been a region. When I was younger, Llanelli did all of the things the Scarlets are doing now. They've always been more than just a club in West Wales. That's why it was so easy for us to stand alone.

Yes there was issues about us going it alone (but then Cardiff and Newport did exactly the same), and we did overspend and make some truly awful decisions, and we alienated a heck of a lot of Llanelli fans by moving from Stradey. We're only just now putting that right, but the whole regional concept may have been re-branded as Scarlets being 'heart and soul rugby country' but to me, for all my 23 years, that's what Llanelli and now the Scarlets have always been.

Wales606 - I think the Scarlets' youngsters have only stepped up to the mark so well this season because they went through those torrid couple of seasons. The Blues may well have to go through the same thing themselves, unless like you suggest they keep a good balance between youth and experience to bring the youngsters through.

Also 606. You mentioned earlier that when the dragons played the blues that warburtom and Williams played 6 and 7 for the first time. If I remember rightly, Martyn Williams was busy at the royal wedding!

Dreamer - but thats the thing. In theory things that happened in your childhood shouldn't be an issue. Scarlets were VERY unpopular amongst Welsh fans a few years ago on old 606. They have threaded a fine line between removing some elements of Llanelli and ensuring they remain who they are. And it appears by chance or design to be yielding results.

Well, perhaps it was against the Scarlets then,

Still Pretorious is first choice and Molitika isnt.

Yeah I never got why we were so unpopular. We weren't the only one's who stood alone, think there were issues with our dealings with the WRU or something. Still though, I would take the views of a lot of the old posters on 606 with a pinch of salt. It was hardly the place for completely rational debating some of the time

Agree with this line: "They have threaded a fine line between removing some elements of Llanelli and ensuring they remain who they are". They've done a great job at this at the moment, and long may it continue

They've said they have no money for Dai Young to spend. Whether there would be money for a new coach is another matter. DY doesn't have the best track record in the transfer market, especially when it comes to sorting out the two key problem positions; 3 and 10.

They may find it difficult to attract a coach if Young leaves unless they are willing to let him make signings. Or they may go for a cut price option. They certainly don't have the money behind them the Irish provinces do. Looking at Ulster for example, we get more money from ticket sales but we own our ground. There's no rent there. That means we really do a lot better from the tickets we sell.

I also wonder about sponsorship deals etc. from the Blues. And their current wage bill- is it money well spent?

rugbydreamer wrote:Yeah I never got why we were so unpopular. We weren't the only one's who stood alone, think there were issues with our dealings with the WRU or something. Still though, I would take the views of a lot of the old posters on 606 with a pinch of salt. It was hardly the place for completely rational debating some of the time

Agree with this line: "They have threaded a fine line between removing some elements of Llanelli and ensuring they remain who they are". They've done a great job at this at the moment, and long may it continue

This is probably meant for another thread really. But yes I can understand why there was resentment. The whole idea of regionalism was to create new unique franchises and the view was that the Scarlets were just One Eyed Turks in disguise. They do need an influencial outside figure though somewhere in the team be it the backroom team somewhere or else an foreign player.

Anyway point is Blues should have the stones to do whats best for them.

Well if Wasps are willing to pay £100,000 to buy out Youngs contract, and we dont have Youngs wages (which are probably a lot) and if we promote from within or choose a cheaper coach, perhaps there will be money for 1 key signing - hopefully a 10 or THP

Contempomi would we a good option if Stade go bust, he would suit our style and wouldnt cost as much as he once would have.

I think the blues will go for a cheap option but that may not be a bad thing if the expensive option i's like Scott johnson. The blues will always be an attractive job, because it's the capital region and a high profile team no matter what's going on on the pitch.

In terms of the blues finances. Does anyone think the blues would have been better off by letting rush go to ulster. He's 32 and must be costing them a fortune. So too will the likes of Blair who had been injured for an age.

manofgwent wrote:In terms of the blues finances. Does anyone think the blues would have been better off by letting rush go to ulster. He's 32 and must be costing them a fortune. So too will the likes of Blair who had been injured for an age.

Yea they probably would have.

MOG

Blair has been injured all season and looks likely to retire - still, he has a contract and we have to pay his wages - they cant just get rid of him

Rush is still a talisman and when he plays well, the team plays well - its just unfortunate he has been injured/off form for a lot of the season - although there were still a few games where Rush won the game single handed - it was only a year ago vs Wasps where he single handedly won that game in the mud and pouring rain to put us into the final of the Amlin and allow us to win our first piece of European silverware - he may be old, but he still has a lot to offer, on the field and off it.

I actually think the Blues may well be underestimated next season and it'll do them good to be a little under the radar.

The Blues have several players who in my view are underrated. I don't think Parks will be as poor next season as he was in his breakthrough season and I think the Blues will now know what to do with him, whereas last season there seemed to be a general misunderstanding of how to use him. I also think Tom James is an underrated player, and most Welsh fans now seem to consider him rubbish. Personally I think he's a decent athlete and whilst his hands aren't exactly top class, his pace and physicality are decent weapons, and he provides a useful contrast to Halfpenny on the other wing. Lualua and Roberts make a strong unit in the midfield, and compliment Parks wide (if predictable) passing game.

In Warburton and Davies they have the top rising stars of the Welsh pack.

Not all doom and gloom in my book, they just need a good pre-season to re-shape their approach on the pitch to match the players they have.

funnyExiledScot wrote:I actually think the Blues may well be underestimated next season and it'll do them good to be a little under the radar.

The Blues have several players who in my view are underrated. I don't think Parks will be as poor next season as he was in his breakthrough season and I think the Blues will now know what to do with him, whereas last season there seemed to be a general misunderstanding of how to use him. I also think Tom James is an underrated player, and most Welsh fans now seem to consider him rubbish. Personally I think he's a decent athlete and whilst his hands aren't exactly top class, his pace and physicality are decent weapons, and he provides a useful contrast to Halfpenny on the other wing. Lualua and Roberts make a strong unit in the midfield, and compliment Parks wide (if predictable) passing game.

In Warburton and Davies they have the top rising stars of the Welsh pack.

Not all doom and gloom in my book, they just need a good pre-season to re-shape their approach on the pitch to match the players they have.

I don't think the Blues will improve at all with Parks at 10, he cant play an expansive game or get the backs moving, all he can really do is kick for position and the Blues simply don't have the lineout to play that type of game. People are making a case for Sweeney but the truth if he had delivered then Parks would never have been signed in the first place.
The Blues have basically been carried by their back row for the past few years and it's likely both their Opensides Warburton, and Williams will be with Wales in the World Cup.
Tom James is a bit of an annomoly, people got very excited at the start but he was pushed to far to soon, before he'd had a proper chance to adapt from athletics to rugby. He also said silly things in the press, his lack of experience and bad image gives fans a dim view of him, however he is learning each season and is still only 24 so can easily turn everything round. Funny as it may sound but I think Brew and James may well be the future Wales wingers with North at outside centre and Halfpenny at Full Back.

Starting XV is strong and certainly capable. Parks is usually very good at what he does, ie kicking and controlling from ten behind a big pack. However Cardiff do not have a big pack and the style of play from our ten is diametrically opposed to that of the other 14 players on the pitch.

I would have Filise starting at three rather than Andrews who still has a lot to learn to become first choice THP. You've not included James Down which is a major oversight. In RWC year you will see more and more of him and ideally I would see him alongside Bradley in the second row, move Dave to eight and Pato to six. I certainly think that will happen once Xav hangs up his boots.

I understand Gareth Davies has been given a full time Blues contract and will be interesting to see how he goes. At Celtic league level I certainly think he will perform as he does most things well. Also interesting to see the competition between Richie and Lloyd as the next season progresses.

Have to avoid last seasons trap of "throw it to Casey and see what he can do" - he's an outstanding talent but can't do it all himself.

James Down has looked good this season, it would be interesting to see him get more regular gametime.

Pretorious at 8? I dont think he is suited to it, although he is an excellent 6 and shouldl be left there.

Paterson has been disappointing, I think we need a bulky lock who can also control a lineout and a new 8 and Pato can warm the bench as he can cover 2nd and Backrow.

If the Blues win the lottery -

4. Bradley Davies
5. Victor Matfield
6. Andreus Pretorious
7. Sam Warburton
8. Jamie Heaslip

That would be awesome...though, I would also buy Hook, A.Jones and M.Rees