London 2012: UK medal hopefuls

Hello people

I am by no means an athletics expert but I was looking for an informed opinion from some of the more informed members of this forum upon which British athletes have a significant chance of winning an Olympic medal at London 2012.

I have the following:

Significant probability
Jessica Ennis (heptathlon)
Phillips Idowu (triple jump)
Mo Farah (5000m/10000m)
Dai Green (400m hurdle s)
Robbie Grabarz (High Jump)
Greg Rutherford (Long Jump)

Outside chance
Lisa Dobriskey (1500m)
Natasha Danvers (400m Hurdles)
Tiffany Porter (100m Hurdles)
Women's 4x400m
Men's 4x100m
Goldie Sayers (Javlin)
Christine Ohuruogu (400m)


Come to early
Jodie Williams (100m, 200m)

I've managed to score tickets for AT004 (Women's 100m final/ heptathlon final) so I'm pretty delighted by that. Find it amazing how athletics albeit never really a mainstream sport, always produces the real magic at the Olympics!

I welcome all additions to the above list.

Add Dai Greene (men's 400 m HDLS) as a significant probabability.

Add Goldie Sayers (women's javelin), Jenny Meadows (800 m) and Tasha Danvers (women's 400 mHDLS) as outside chances.

Remove Jodie Williams (women's sprints) as this is 4 years too soon for her.

teassoc wrote:Add Dai Greene (men's 400 m HDLS) as a significant probabability.

Add Goldie Sayers (women's javelin), Jenny Meadows (800 m) and Tasha Danvers (women's 400 mHDLS) as outside chances.

Remove Jodie Williams (women's sprints) as this is 4 years too soon for her.

Updated and agree with the exception of Jenny Meadows. A finalist yes, but probably won't get a medal.

If Meadows has got a good chance of making the final, she has a decent shot of getting a medal.

The 800 is often very much about what happens on the night, it's probably the most open of events and she generally does herself proud when it comes to big races.

I don't see it's a massive longshot. Russians are reknowned for being disappointing at the big games, and apart from Semenya at full speed, the rest are all beatable on the day.

All Time Great wrote:

teassoc wrote:Add Dai Greene (men's 400 m HDLS) as a significant probabability.

Add Goldie Sayers (women's javelin), Jenny Meadows (800 m) and Tasha Danvers (women's 400 mHDLS) as outside chances.

Remove Jodie Williams (women's sprints) as this is 4 years too soon for her.

Updated and agree with the exception of Jenny Meadows. A finalist yes, but probably won't get a medal.

Jenny has won medals at the last 4 major champs she has competed in including bronze at the last Worlds in berlin. I would rate her chances of a medal as much better than Dobriskey as she is a much smarter racer than Lisa. I'd also substitute Danvers for Perri Shakes Drayton. Tasha hasn't really done anything since Beijing & Perri is improving all the time.

I'd also add Greg Rutherford to the outside chance list.

Perri is 8th fastest in the world this year, and has been improving a lot.

I would say she has a very good chance of making the final. A medal will be tough of course, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility.

Talking of Tasha Danvers anyone know when she plans to start racing? Right now she is quite a bit faster than Perri, at least on paper. Both could get into the final. Perri would have to improve a lot to stand a chance of a medal.

Given that she hasn't broken 55 seconds since the Olympic final in 2008, I'm not sure you could say that right now she is quite a bit faster.

She has about 0.4 of a second on her in terms of overall PB, I say that Perri has a lot more chance of success in London than Tasha Danvers.

I agree. PSD deserves to be on the list more than Tasha Danvers at this moment in time. Also not out of the realms of possibility that one of our male 400 runners could sneak in (Rooney or Bigham) if they get their act together. Andy Turner for s medal in the short hurdles? Again not impossible. I would defo have Jenny Meadows on that list, proven championship performer.

Also the male Long Jumps and High Jumps aren't impossible by any means, we've had quite a few recent medals in the men's high jumps.

Given her rate of improvement, I wouldn't put it past Bleasdale to have a shot at a medal.

It's just very tough to predict with the younger athletes. Some might make a very sudden advancement, while others may stagnate for a while.

Bleasdale is a good shout dj, she's up to what, about 4.50 right now, and at her rate of improvement it's fa from impossible that she could get somewhere close to 4.70 or even 4.80 by next year, which would put her right in the mix...

She did a PB of 4.53 on the weekend and was very close on one of her attempts at 4.61 (British record).

Yep, I agree 4.70+ and you have a chance of being in the mix at the very end in a major champs.

paula radcliffe has not been ben mentioned , assuming she returns to form and stays injury free ( a big if) age is not against her .

mara yamuchi and jo pavey plus helen clitherohoe are more likely to realistically aim for places 6-10

westy

for the love of god!

long time no speak

are you ok?

I think Paula needs to show some form before you can talk about her as a medal candidate. If she remains injury free & makes it to the start line in Berlin we may know more then.

hi osprey, thanks for the concern and welcome.

i am fine , ebeen obsesssed with other things recently, and travelled for amonth in sfrica .

the site looks good , and nice to see familar names .

shame about isabre not on at the moment, but good to see cilivised dabate without the flying hurdler !!

westybeast wrote:hi osprey, thanks for the concern and welcome.

i am fine , ebeen obsesssed with other things recently, and travelled for amonth in sfrica .

the site looks good , and nice to see familar names .

shame about isabre not on at the moment, but good to see cilivised dabate without the flying hurdler !!

Good to have you back westy.

Anybody have any idea what happened to Flying Hurdler? Or is he (presumably a he!) posting somewhere under a new name?

Halleiujah, praise be to he Lord, Westy's back !
Hey Westy don't they have emails in Africa or have
you been too busy fighting the insurgents in th Congo !

I think Holly can definitely be added to the list now. I think a medal might be a little too much to expect in Daegu, although she's high up in the World rankings now as she's still ineperienced at the highest level. That performance will mean she'll get invites to Diamond League meetings etc. & compete regularly against the best.

I can't wait to see how she gets on this year & next.

Don´t worry Westy, FH is around and providing good debate (No it´s not me)

I would not add Holly to the list. It was a great performance, but lets wait to see how she performs at the worlds and how she copes with the pressure. I´d like to think well, but Olympics are different to a normal meet

In the light of Tomlinson's GB record , and Rutherford's placing behind him , I'd be inclined to list the pair of them in the "second level" chances.
Competition between the two of them/fair level of experience now/the added confidence that seems to come from having a team mate also involved at a major championship - all adds up to the best chance for years.

Just hope they both stay fit...

Just a runner wrote:Don´t worry Westy, FH is around and providing good debate (No it´s not me)

I would not add Holly to the list. It was a great performance, but lets wait to see how she performs at the worlds and how she copes with the pressure. I´d like to think well, but Olympics are different to a normal meet

I disagree. I would spank her on the list and call her Bianca.

She's 4th best in the World this year and only a little bit off the best.

If that's not having a reasonable chance at a medal, I don't know what is.

Although Holly bleasdale is showing good form as the old saying goes Form is temporary class is permanent. She will have to show some consistent 4.70m vaulting to show it wasn't a fluke and that she hasn't reached her limit (as happended to Steve Lewis and "appears" to have happened to Kate Dennison). We of course have no idea what the conditions will be in Daegu so can not really quote "if she does 4.70m again will be at least top 4" but if she repeats 4.70m between now and Daegu (if not higher) then it will show she can compete at that level. If so a good chance of top 4 or medal.

However apart from the usual suspects (Idowu, Ennis and now possibly Mo and Dai Greene) the others "British favourites" need the field to come back to them.

With the best will in the world Andy Turner needs a number of class athletes to underperform or not go to Daegu

Goldie Sayers - The worlds best throwers throw 67+ for fun

Tomlinson/Rutherford - you would have to say that one would expect maybe one of them to finish 4th - therefore teetering on a medal place. But Mitchell Watt conistent performer at the moment and Irving Saladino showing some good form. Mokoena and Reif performing below par and Fabrice la Pierre can't buy a jump.

Jenny Meadows - the W800m is very competitive at the moment with nobody a standout athlete. Meadows is actually well down at this moment in time and given the competitiveness of the event at the moment it wouldn't be that great a shock if she medalled or by the same token if she didn't make the final. It is too wide open.

Sad to say that I don't see any GB finalist for 100m, 200m 400m for both men and women. M800m can't see it at the moment for Michael Rimmer - far far too many sub 1:45 men about

May be a strange turn round for UK Athletics with the majority of Top 8/medals coming from the Field.

You've got a point there.

This thread about British athletics was certainly threatening to turn positive.

We certainly needed a reality check post underlining just how bad we are.

The debate is about those with outside chances.

In the list of outside chances are a number of potential medalists, some with greater chances than others.

The ones with the better chances would seem to be Rimmer and Meadows, as they have proven themselves in previous championships. Maybe Rutherford/Tomlinson or Bleasdale, if they can be at their very best on the day.

Rather unlikely for Andy Turner, Bingham and PSD - but you never know. Also unlikely for the men's sprint relay, Offili, Proctor and the women's 4 x 400 relay. Chances for the latter would improve significantly if Ohurugu and Sanders could get back to some kind of form.

So all in all, I'd estimate a prospective medal count of 4 - 10. I don't know what the official target is but I'd have thought 6 would be a reasonable performance - 10 of course would be excellent.

Umm - well when you consider that currently one would expect Rutherford/Tomlinson and Bleasdale and Sayers to get Top 8 and even vying for 4th I just wonder how Rimmer would figure being a better medal possibility when 3 men have already run sub 1:44 and a further 16 have run sub 1:45 this season - Rimmer not among them

billiethezwerg wrote:Umm - well when you consider that currently one would expect Rutherford/Tomlinson and Bleasdale and Sayers to get Top 8 and even vying for 4th I just wonder how Rimmer would figure being a better medal possibility when 3 men have already run sub 1:44 and a further 16 have run sub 1:45 this season - Rimmer not among them

On current form, agreed.

Rimmer needs to recover his form. I think he can do that. Call it a leap of faith! Meadows also slightly down on her form but should be better come late August.

If we're talking London 2012 it's still over a year away and in that time you could see people stepping up a gear. Even after the double at the Euros last year i think most of us would have had Mo as a real outside chance only but he's clearly moved up a gear this year - I mean people are now actually talking about him as favourite in Daegu, who would have thought that?

The likes of Holly are still quite inexperienced so perhaps it's a bit much to expect a medal from her this year but if she gets into the final & competes well that's still good experience for her to build on. Perhaps Perri can also make improvement next year like Hejnova is doing this year.

The exciting thing about Rutherford & Tomlinson is that they both appear to be more consistent this year & that bode well for both Daegu & London

It's that long since I posted on here I couldn't remember my password

Holly is one of the most laid back and modest athletes I know. I really think it would take a lot to make her crumble under pressure. Give her the opportunities to regularly compete against the worlds best and hopefully it will spur her onto greater heights (bad pun!) and come 2012......

Always watching

FH, good to see you back and sure you will add to the debate.... I´ve changed username since 606, but enjoyed the banter with you on there. Hope you will become a fixture here

Can some knowledgeable people please help me update this on current form?

Thanks, can't wait for London 2012.

ATG.

well I'd say the main four are all there still.

Danvers I think we can scratch altogether, but Shakes-Drayton is probably not too far away.

Bleasdale, obviously. Regularly jumping over 4.70, has a real chance.

Men's 4x400 relay, again, probably not too far away.

Ohuorogu looked good at the indoors (admitedly only ran one relay leg but it was impressive) so looks in with a shout.

Not too sure where Dobriskey is at right now, but Hannah England could well medal in the 1500.

Women's 800, we should have a couple of hopefuls (don't know where they're at right now).

Andrew Osagie? Probably not quite world level yet, but has a strong kick so don't rule him out (very outside chance).

Aldama in the women's TJ.

Shara Proctor in the women's LJ.

Tiffany Porter in the women's 100 hurdles. All three decent chances.

That's about all I can think about at the moment, but from your original list I'd scratch Dobriskey and Danvers and add Bleasdale, Aldama, Proctor and Porter.

I'd agree that Bleasdale, Aldama, Proctor and Porter all now look like having good medal chances.

You could also add Robbie Grabartz (spelling?) in the men's HJ to that list.

As far as outsiders are concerned, you could add Turner in the 110hdls, Paula Radcliffe in women's marathon, Hanna England in the women's 1500 and Tomlinson or Rutherford in the men's LJ.

Other longshots could be the men's and women's sprint relays, Jenny Meadows in women's 800 and Lawrence Okoye in the men's discuss (if he can continue to improve).

Home Olympics will give GB athletes a better chance of success, but for some the pressure might get to them. So I'm fully expecting some of those long shots to medal.

Don't want to put a hex on him , but Rutherford is looking more and more like a serious chance.
8.35 even with a maximum allowable wind assist is very handy ... Just got to stay in one piece for another two /three months , which is something he has had trouble doing in the past. Still he must be due a bit of luck , and if he stays in that form he'll be right in the medal hunt.

alfie wrote:Don't want to put a hex on him , but Rutherford is looking more and more like a serious chance.
8.35 even with a maximum allowable wind assist is very handy ... Just got to stay in one piece for another two /three months , which is something he has had trouble doing in the past. Still he must be due a bit of luck , and if he stays in that form he'll be right in the medal hunt.

He's supposed to have re-modelled his technique on Carl Lewis's making himself in the process less prone to injury.

There's also Tomlinson increasing further our medal chances.

i agree with you " djlovesyou"

Thanks sherlock for bringing this thread back to life.

It has reminded me about how much progress has been made since last July. We have seen great successes at Daegu and a whole lot of top performances over the winter and spring. This has covered track as well as field. Right now it looks like we might only fail to be represented in the mens walk and wonens HJ. Whilst I'm not suggested they will all medal that is further evidence of the great progress that has recently been made. Indeed, some by juniors who can look forward to even better times in Rio (e.g. Katerina Thompson, Bleasdale and Pozzi).

I don't know therefore why anyone needs to suggest the contrary? I can only guess there are guys out there negative by nature and always happy to apply the wet blanket.

Following on this eve's Rome DL event, we have two British winners;

Robbie Garbarz [ 2.33 PB high jump - outdoors ] and Greg Rutherford [ 8.32m long jump - 3cm short of equalling British Record ]...

What's the possibility of them being involved in the mix for the medals?! I believe have very real chance getting a medal of some colour...

What might the likely winning standards / markers be at the Olympics for each event, and how close can they get?!

Haven't been this excited about the High Jump since the gutsy Steve Smith...

After Rome and Eugene , I think we can move Grabarz and Proctor up a bit on the "possibles" list , and regretfully move Bleasdale down a bit as she is yet to reproduce her indoor form outdoors . Still time yet though...

Rutherford keeps looking better...I'm keeping those fingers crossed. And Farah looked very good...

Given some of our medal hopefuls and prospects in the jumps, was thinking about the performances that may be required to take the Olympic title or take a medal of some kind;

Men's High Jump

2008 Olympics --------------------------- 2.36m [ S: 2.34 B:2.34 ]

2004 Olympics --------------------------- 2.36m [ S:2.34 B:2.34 ]

Mens Long Jump

2008 Olympics --------------------------- 8.34m [ S:8.24 B:8.20 ]

2004 Olympics --------------------------- 8.59m [ S:8.47 B:8.32 ]

Men's Triple Jump

2008 Olympics --------------------------- 17.67m [ S:17.62 B:17.59 ]

2004 Olympics --------------------------- 17.79m [ S:17.55 B:17.48]

Men's Pole Vault

2008 Olympics --------------------------- 5.96 [ S:5.85 B: 5.70 ]

2004 Olympics --------------------------- 5.95 [ S:5.90 B:5.85 ]



Women's Long Jump

2008 Olympics --------------------------- 7.04 [ S:7.03 B:6.91 ]

2004 Olympics --------------------------- 7.07 [ S: 7.05 B: 7.05]

Women's Triple Jump

2008 Olympics --------------------------- 15.39m [ S:15.32 B:15.23]

2004 Olympics --------------------------- 15.30 [ S:15.25 B: 15.14 ]

Women's Pole Vault

2008 Olympics --------------------------- 5.05 [ S:4.80 B:4.75 ]

2004 Olympics --------------------------- 4.91 [ S:4.75 B:4.70 ]


[ Note: thanks to teassoc for reminder to include Pole Vault - oversight on my part LOL ]

Happy SJ to speculate.

You might also want to add the men's and women's PV to that list. Lewis knows that a 5:80 would give him a chance of medalling and is currently not that far away. Bleasdale of course has a realistic chance of medalling as well but she needs to show better form than her last outing of 4:28 suggests.

Regarding the events you've listed, I'd expect the winners to go further than their previous (2008) counterparts in the men's LJ and triple jump, as well as the women's LJ. This of course will depend on conditions and we know how poor London the weather in August can be at times.

Can't see any world records being broken in any of these events. Outside chances of world records in both triple jump events.

teassoc wrote:Happy SJ to speculate.

You might also want to
add the men's and women's PV to that list. Lewis knows that a 5:80
would give him a chance of medalling and is currently not that far away.
Bleasdale of course has a realistic chance of medalling as well but
she needs to show better form than her last outing of 4:28 suggests.

Regarding
the events you've listed, I'd expect the winners to go further than
their previous (2008) counterparts in the men's LJ and triple jump, as
well as the women's LJ. This of course will depend on conditions and we
know how poor London the weather in August can be at times.

Can't see any world records being broken in any of these events. Outside
chances of world records in both triple jump events.

Agree with a lot of what you say teassoc

Men's Pole Vault [ Steve Lewis ]
World Record 6.14m
British Record 5.80m [ Outdoors - Indoors; 5.81m ]

Going by the last two Olympics, In the men's Pole Vault, something in the 5.70's gives an athlete an outside chance - a vault in the 5.80's almost assures a medal, and agree that Lewis ain't far off [ 2012 Indoors 5.77; Outdoors 5.72 - equalling or setting his bests this year ]

Minimum required for a medal; 5.80m?!

Women's Pole Vault [ Holly Bleasdale, Kate Dennison ]
World Record 5.06m
British Record 4.70m [ Outdoors - Indoors; 4.87 ]

Bleasdale yet to replicate earlier indoor form [ 2012 Indoors 4.87; Outdoors 4.43 only so far]. But this is where the mental strtength issue and handling the pressure comes in. She's young, and when the pressure was off, she was able to compete and post huge marks. Expectation - from both herself and from elsewhere - as a result of indoor form, brings with it huge pressure. She has the talent and capability - hopefully, she'll be able to handle the pressure too. Good
luck to her!!

Not to forget, Kate' Dennison's in there too [ 2012 Indoors 4.52; Outdoors 4.50; PB 4.61 ] - she has an Olympic A qualifier, and is highly likely to be going.

Minimum required for a medal; 4.75m?!

Men's High Jump [ Robbie Grabbarz, Samson Oni, Martyn Bernard ]
World Record 2.47m
World Record 2.37m [ Outdoors - Indoors; 2.38m ]

Thereare quite a number of British high jumpers to look out for. Not sure all results are in and up to date; Robbie Grabbarz leads the British and world list at the moment with that outdoor 2.33m. Samson Oni has achieved the Olympic A qaulifier on the back of the indoor season. Bernard has the B mark. All of these likely to be going. Not sure if there any more recent results to be considered.

Olympic title probably to be taken with a jump in the region of 2.36 - 2.37m [ may even require a 2.38 this year if conditions permit ]. A medal will probably require a minimum 2.34m. The high jump is always fiercely contested as there's so little often separating the top 5 or 6 jumpers, both in terms of general ability and on the day.

Women's High Jump [ ? ]
World Record 2.09m
British Record 1.95m


Olympic A is set at 1.95m. This is very tough indeed! We've had 4 women match this on the all time list [ including indoor performances ]. No one has ever exceeded it. Only one of those athletes is competing presently - and that's Ennis. She also holds the leading jump by a British athlete this year; 1.91m. B Olympic standard 1.92m - on the all time list, only 13 British athletes have ever equalled or exceeded this mark.

Minimum required for a medal; 1.97?! [ Britain will sadly struggle to get an athlete through to the final ].

Men's Long Jump [ Greg Rutherford, Chris Tomlinson ]
World Record 8.90m
British Record 8.35m
Both Rutherford and Tomlinson had important
breakthrough seasons last year, swapping ownership of the British record. Rutherford seems to be the one so far carrying that form and momentum into this season. Rutherford's best season 8.35 and has been consistently over 8m - and into the 8.20's. Tomlinson best of 8.01,has struggled to show last years form, and has yet to attain the A quailfier.

Minimum required for a medal: 8.40?!

Women's Long Jump [ Shara Proctor ]
World Record 7.52m
British Record 6.90m

Proctor has an outdoors mark of 6.84 and indoors of 6.89. She has the A qaulifier bagged. Medal prospect?! In 2004, 6.91 got the Bronze and 2008, Bronze 7.04 [ 2000 Bronze 6.83; 1996 Bronze 7.00 ]. She may need a PB to assure a medal. Interestingly, the Olympic qualifying mark for this event is very tough. We've only had 9 women equal or go over the Olympic A Qualifying mark of 6.75! In all, we've had only 13 athletes go over the Olympic B qualifier of 6.65! [ Which i seven harder to believe! ].

Minimum required for a medal; 6.95?!


Men's Triple Jump [ Phillips Idowu]
World Record 18.29m
British Record 18.29m

Idowu has had a reasonable start to the season. Won the events in Hengelo and Shanghai in difficult conditions - but has since struggled [ Diamond League meeting Eugene, Oregon- 17.03 and the retired 3rd round ]. Idowu has the potential. But he may well need to land a really, really big one or two jumps in London to secure the title; 17.80 - 17.90m?!

Minimum required for a medal; 17.55m?!

Women's Triple Jump
World Record 15.50m
British Record 15.15m [ Outdoors - Indoors; 15.16m ]
[ Highest Profile British Athletes Yamile Aldama ]

Aldama's jumped very well so far this season. Indoors - 14.82mthis season; Outdoors - 14.65m. She has a really big PB 15.29m! [ making her the fifth longest triple jumper of all time ]. So she has the big jumps in her - though she is fast approaching 40 years of age! In great shape consdering! Barring injury, she will compete well and push strongly for a medal. Athletes will have to jump 15m+ for genuine shot of a medal. Gold 15.20 - 15.30m?!

The world records in each of these are very tough marks, as we'd naturally expect. Cannot see any world records in any of the above events in London. However, in these above events, there are possible new British records awaiting;

Bleasdale in the Pole Vault; 4.70m [ this is the outdoor mark, which she herself holds currently, and well below her Indoor record; - this should be a formailty, if she keeps it together ].
Shara Proctor in the Long Jump; Outdoor PB 6.84 Indoor PB 6.89 - both of which set this year.
Steve Lewis in the Pole Vault; his PB isn't far off the British Record of 5.80m - Lewis has done 5.72 outdoors and 5.77 indoors - both this year! If he is to get a medal, he will likely need to jump a British Record for even a Bronze.
Aldama in the Women's Triple Jump; Aldama has an outside chance of getting very close to Ashia Hansen's mark in London if she remains fit [ she's jumped beyond Hansen's mark 4 times - under Cuban and Sudanese flags ].

Great post there SJ.

I think you are pretty much spot in terms of your standards for medalling. But of course the weather will play its part and poor weather will bring those standards down a bit.

Steve Lewis could be the surprise out of those competitors as I think he has recently been quite regularly going for 5.80m +.

I doubt that Aldama at the age of 40 will jump over 15m again.

Best bets for a medal has to be Philips. Grabartz, Rutherford, Proctor and Aldama are all good performers and some or all of these should medal.

Bleasdale has the talent but seems to have lost something moving to a longer stride pattern and pole. A return to form could see her jumping for gold.

teassoc wrote:Great post there SJ.

I think you are pretty much spot in terms of your standards for medalling. But of course the weather will play its part and poor weather will bring those standards down a bit.

Steve Lewis could be the surprise out of those competitors as I think he has recently been quite regularly going for 5.80m +.

I doubt that Aldama at the age of 40 will jump over 15m again.

Best bets for a medal has to be Philips. Grabartz, Rutherford, Proctor and Aldama are all good performers and some or all of these should medal.

Bleasdale has the talent but seems to have lost something moving to a longer stride pattern and pole. A return to form could see her jumping for gold.

Good call on everyone! Ability to achieve those marks depends upon conditions. It being London - we might hope that we still have a chance of it being not so bad by virtue of the fact it's usually 3 degrees warmer than anywhere esle in the UK And - indeed - Aldama may be a little too old now Fingers crossed for Lewis

It would certainly be great to see a few British Records across these and other events - failing that, I always appreciate watching big PB's

Great post SJ.:-). Agree with pretty much all of it, although as teassoc says, the weather could be key.

Sprints: Medal Hopefuls / Semi-Final Hopefuls / or even simply the best we got

Men's 100m
World Record 9.58s
British Record 9.87
Olympic A Qualifyer 10.18s

Athletes;

10.08 ---------------- Adam Gemili
10.28 ---------------- Dwain Chambers

10.18 ---------------- James Dasalou
10.21 ---------------- MLF
10.22 ---------------- James Alaka

10.23----------------- Richard Kilty
10.27 ---------------- Christian Malcolm
10.29 ---------------- Tyrone Edgar
10.33 ---------------- David Balorinwa
10.38 ---------------- HAA

Who are our best male sprinters?! And what can we realistically expect?!

Gemili has made quite an emphatic entrance into the reckoning. Great performances in Regensgurg [ GER ]. 10.08, with a 10.11 in the rounds, clearly demonstrating that it's no fluke [ and a bunch of other times in the 10.2s ].

I've cheekily put Chambers at second on the list even though his best time this season is behind a few others. We all know he's got more to come. He is
the European Indoor Champion this year - so we know he's still got it. Has tailored his training to now suit the 100m. 6th in Berlin [ great performance! ]. Chambers ran 10.04s in his semi and 10.00s dead in the final. [ Had a chance of Bronze in Daegu - but DQ'd in the Semis! Strange to suggest this, but food for thought! ]

What about the rest?! Hard to say who will emerge from that crowd - but we should start to see times regluarly dip below 10.20.

Slowest time to make it to the final at Beijing: 10.03s

Women's 100m
World Record 10.49s
British Record 11.05s

Athletes;

11.21 ---------------- Abi Oyepitan
11.75 ---------------- Jeanette Kwakye

11.27 ---------------- Laura Turner
11.31 ---------------- Anyika Onuora
11.46 ---------------- Margaret Adeoye
11.47 ---------------- Bianca Williams [U20 ]
11.53 ---------------- Joice Maduaka
11.61 ---------------- Montell Douglas
11.87 ---------------- Jodie Williams

Abi Oyepitan seems to be getting it together. My other two preferred sprinters are out of the reckoning on time at the moment; Jeannette Kwakye and Jodie Williams. But they're struggling at the present moment. I have placed Kwakye up the list as I think she will get it together. What are others people's thoughts?! Still early days and time to show form and get in tthe reckoning.

Any possible finalists?!

Kwkaye made the finals brilliantly in Beijing 2008 and came a very credible 6th [ 11.14 PB at the time ]. Kwakye by the way ran 11.19 in the Semi.

It will perhaps take a PB for some of our British athletes to get into the semi-final, let alone the final. What will it take to get into the final?! 11.15?! [
That's if we we even have athletes representing Britain in the Semi's - though I expect us to get perhaps two in, not going to be easy! ].

Slowest time into Final: 11.22s


Men's 200m
World Record 19.19s
British Record 19.87s
Olympic A Qualifyer 20.55s

Athletes:

20.46 ---------------- James Alaka
20.47 ---------------- Christian Malcolm
20.50 ---------------- Richard Kilty
20.55 ---------------- James Ellington

20.69 ---------------- David Balorinwa
20.70 ---------------- Adam Gemili
20.87 ---------------- Marlon Devonish

In recent times, we've struggled in the 200m. Best times form British athletes have come way down in terms of global lists. That said, Christian malcolm got into the final in Beijing and came 5th [ I think a number of DQ's may helped a bit there ]

To get into the semi though - Malcolm had to run his heart out; running 20.25 [ only managed 20.40 in the final ].

British athletes will need to give your best in the Semi - better to make the final than try to save something [ unless of course you're Bolt, Blake, Gay, Spearman etc ].

Slowest time into the final at Beijing: 20.25s

Women's 200m
World Record 21.34s
British Record 22.10
Olympic A Qualifier 23.10s

Athletes:

22.88 ---------------- Jessica Ennis
22.93 ---------------- Anyika Onuora
23.15 ---------------- Abi Oyepitan [ Windy 22.57s +2.1m per sec ]

23.25 ---------------- Joice Maduaka


23.35 ---------------- Margaret Adeoye
23.38 ---------------- Shana Cox
23.58 ---------------- Laura Turner
23.59 ---------------- Bianca Williams [ U20 ]
? ???? ---------------- Jodie Williams


Oyepitan has run some very good times already. 11.21 over the 100m. 22.57 over the 200m - with a +2.1m tailwind [ shame about about the extra 0.1! ]. That is one of the best times ever for a British athlete. She is coming into good form. Remarkably, the fastest legal timeso far is by Jessica Ennis [ 22.88 ]. Anyika Onuora in there too with an excellent 22.93.

Waiting for Jodie Williams.

And where's Emily Freeman?! She made Beijing Semi's. Came 7th in 22.83. I knwo injury had affected her career, but not sure where she is at the moment.

The slowest time to get into the finals at Beijing?! 22.61s! [ Shows how hard this event is!!! ]

Men's 400m

World Record 43.19
British Record 44.36
Olympic A Qualifier 45.30s

Athletes:

44.92 ---------------- Martyn Rooney
45.09 ---------------- Conrad Williams
45.23 ---------------- Luke Lennon-Ford

45.47 ---------------- Robert Tobin
45.61 ---------------- Richard Buck
45.71 ---------------- Nigel Levine [ Indoor time; outdoors; 46.29 ]
45.77 ---------------- Louis Persent
45.87 ---------------- Michael Bingham
46.02 ---------------- Chris Clarke
46.05 ---------------- Jack Green

It's been some time since upwards of 4 runners all capable of sub45 seconds. Martin Rooney has been very consistent so far this season - 3 times I believe under 45s. Steady imporvments elsewhere, with a raft of athletes under 46s. Some of these ahtletes are young, with good potential. But naturally difficult to determine who'll emerge out of the crowd this year.

Rooney made the final at Beijing, where he ran 45.12. Crucially, to get there, he ran a fantastic 44.60s in the his semi. Again, for the Briitish athletes, it is a case of giving it everything in the Semi to guarantee making the final. Given the ever-present dangers and general depth of strength amongst competition, best policy in my book!

Slowest time to make the final: 44.82s [ There were three Semi's -first two and two fastest losers ]

Women's 400m


World Record 43.19s
British Record 44.36s
Olympic A Qualifyer 51.55s

Athletes:

50.93 ---------------- Christine Ohuruogu
51.66 ---------------- Shana Cox
52.31 ---------------- Lee McConnell
52.33 ---------------- Nicola Sanders
52.38 ---------------- Kelly Massey
52.69 ---------------- Emily Diamond
52.71 ---------------- Faye Harding

I believe we are seeing a return to form from Ohorugu. She's run 50.93s already, and also a 51.19s. Well ahead of nearest British rivals at the moment. Great to see her returning to some kind of form!

Lee McConnell and Nicola Sanders still in the mix. Always been a huge fan of Sanders - massive shame regarding injury worries. She presnetly seems to have some good speed but not quite the endurance [ she has a comparable 2012 200m time to Ohorugu's 23.76 - Sanders having run 23.79 at Macnhester City Games ].

What are our chances in the Women's 400m at London. Going to stick my neck out and state that Ohorugu will make the final. Hard to see who else will join her.

Ohorugu ran 50.14s in her semi. Sanders came 4th in her Semi in 50.74 and failed to make into the final.

Slowest time to make into the final: 50.63s [ Again, 3 semis; first two and two fastest losers ]

[ Note; excuse if there are any erros, and do let us know ]
[ Note: a lot of opinions here - happy to discssus and crucially interested in others' thoughts ]

Another terrific contribution SJ.

I'll start with the men's 400. I think Bingham will make the team if he can get back to peak form. Also Nigel Levine had a great lead-off leg in the recent GB 4 x 400 relay win (in Rome?) so think he stands a good chance of joining the team. The third and undoubtedly strongest of the trio will be Rooney. Chris Clarke might surprise though.

Rooney should make the final but he'll have to run quite a lot faster than his current season's best. Something like 44.6 to 44.8 might be needed. He won't want to be in the inside or outside lanes though so I'd expect something like 44.5 to be his target.

In the women's 400m I agree with much that you've said. Ohurugu should get in the final if she can run around 50.0 to 50.5 but I can't see any of the other possibles getting there. She'll want something close to 50.0 to ensure she gets one of the better lanes.

As far as the men's 200m is concerned there is one notable omission - Delano Williams who looks like our best prospect in this event at present. Danny Talbot has the talent to join him in the team. The third place is wide open.

I'd expect something around 20.2 being required to make the final, possibly something quicker. Williams says he can run those sorts of times and won't be that surprised if he does. I doubt if any of the other brits will be able to do that.

In the women's 200m Oyepitan has regained form and is standout runner for the team. Onoura will most likely join her with Jodie Williams completing the team. Cut-off time for finalists I'd expect to be around 22.5. Oyepitan can do that but she'll probably be the only brit in that final.

As far as the men's 100m is concerned, I'm sorry to say that Chambers is not looking that good at present but he should still make it. Edgar seems to be coming back into form so I'd expect to see him in the team. Gemili could make it as well.

Sub 10 seconds will be needed to make the final. Not sure I can see any of the brits making it but a resurgent Chambers and/or Gemili at the rate he's improving could prove me wrong.

Looking at the women's 100m, on indoor form, I'd expect Asha Philip to make the team to be joining Oyepitan. I hope Jodie Williams will get the third spot but she'll need to have regained last year's form to achieve that.

I'd expect something under 11.1 to make the final. That's probably beyond any of the brits.

Thanks for your thoughts teassoc - agree with pretty much everything!

Men's 400m

Agree; time of around 44.6 - 44.8 required to make the final, and faster if a decent lane is preferred...

Women's 400m

Agree; Ohorugu the only British athlete to make final. It's likely the title will go for a time in the low 49's - perhaps even sub49 if the conditions allow. But then early season form from the likes of sanbya Richards-Ross doesn't always materialise. Richards-Roos came 7th in Daegu. The winning time was 49.56 - Amantle Montsho - with Felix 2nd a few hundredthds behind. This is well within Ohorugu's reach. Ohorugu is staying quiet and getting on with the work. But her times this year already tell me that she is getting there.

Men's 200m

Hadn't remotely considered Delano Williams. Have just doen a bit of background research to find out about him as not familiar - he's 18 with a PB of 20.53. Clearly a prospect for the future. Will be interesting to see how he does, including whether or not he competes at the Trials.

I do believe that Gemili is one to watch in the 200m too. He's already run 20.70 this season whilst into a slight headwind. He looks stong and focused, and can see him getting more and more confident through the season. His 10.08 suggests to me that he has a 20.3 in the tank this season. If he chooses to have a go that is.

Christian Malcolm too.

Naturally, all dependent in the first place on how many of these athletes do at the Trials...

Agree; 20.2 sounds about right to get into the final in London

Women's 200m

Agree; Oyepitan likely to be the only British sprinter to make the final. She has run a marginally windy 22.57 already. Just hoping that Jodie Williams can start to get it going...

Men's 100m

Agree; Chambers not looking good. But then he's having some terrible luck with conditions. I wonder if he's holding back in a bid to avoid injury?! He's run a couple of times in bad conditions, headwind, wet track, cold etc. If he's confident he has it, and the conditions aren't right, then can see why he might not think that it's worth pushing himself to the limit, when the time won't be there and could bring about injury [ just a thought - though I admit I'm probably clutching at straws! ]

Clearly, again, Gemili one to watch.
Edgar - just checked; he's run 10.07, but with a following wind of +3.6.

Agree too that it is highly possible that it will take sub10 to make the final! Would be the first time ever, if it happened

The UK trials will be more eagerly contested than ever