London 2012: UK medal hopefuls

First topic message reminder :

Hello people

I am by no means an athletics expert but I was looking for an informed opinion from some of the more informed members of this forum upon which British athletes have a significant chance of winning an Olympic medal at London 2012.

I have the following:

Significant probability
Jessica Ennis (heptathlon)
Phillips Idowu (triple jump)
Mo Farah (5000m/10000m)
Dai Green (400m hurdle s)
Robbie Grabarz (High Jump)
Greg Rutherford (Long Jump)

Outside chance
Lisa Dobriskey (1500m)
Natasha Danvers (400m Hurdles)
Tiffany Porter (100m Hurdles)
Women's 4x400m
Men's 4x100m
Goldie Sayers (Javlin)
Christine Ohuruogu (400m)


Come to early
Jodie Williams (100m, 200m)

I've managed to score tickets for AT004 (Women's 100m final/ heptathlon final) so I'm pretty delighted by that. Find it amazing how athletics albeit never really a mainstream sport, always produces the real magic at the Olympics!

I welcome all additions to the above list.

Huge PB for Nigel Levine in Oslo tonight. 45.11 winning the 'national' 400m by over a second.

Great run! You think they will show highlights at some stage durimg tonights diamond league broadcast? Looking forward to see green/greene both go in the mens 400h tonight.

lfc91 wrote:Great run! You think they will show highlights at some stage durimg tonights diamond league broadcast? Looking forward to see green/greene both go in the mens 400h tonight.

Not much chance of that.

BTW and slightly off topic there was a lot of criticism of the BBC re their coverage of the Jubilee (which I didn't watch). Can imagine it will be the same presentation rubbish for the athletics in London 2012. Paul Dickenson is apparently rehearsing his lines already. He in particular got a lot of stick for his contribution over the weekend.

Gareth Warburton has huge PB of 1:44.98 winning the 'national' 800m in Oslo. Self paced as well to 400m and 600m, and over 2 seconds ahead of the next runner (Guy Learmonth, another brit with a PB of 1:47.14). Previous PB 1:46.31.

That makes 3 brits running sub 1:45 with A times for London 2012.

teassoc wrote:

lfc91 wrote:Great run! You think they will show highlights at some stage durimg tonights diamond league broadcast? Looking forward to see green/greene both go in the mens 400h tonight.

Not much chance of that.

BTW and slightly off topic there was a lot of criticism of the BBC re their coverage of the Jubilee (which I didn't watch). Can imagine it will be the same presentation rubbish for the athletics in London 2012. Paul Dickenson is apparently rehearsing his lines already. He in particular got a lot of stick for his contribution over the weekend.

LOL

'Stick' is deserved. They get paid good money - so I want quality goods!

Been a very long time since we had 3 athletes go under 1:45 mins. You'd have to go back to before 2006! [ i.e. see www.powerof10.info - in 2009, no one went under 1:46mins! Yikes!!! Going through the records reminds me of the number of lean years we've had in the event ]...

Improvement must be down to the Olympic affect

Well done Abi!!!!!

2nd Place in the 200m in Oslo - beating a strong field [ Kerron Stewart ]...22.71!!!!

Yes the home olympics seems to be having a great effect on british athletes! Cant wait until the trials.:-)

lfc91 wrote:Yes the home olympics seems to be having a great effect on british athletes! Cant wait until the trials.:-)

Me too - really looking forward to the trials!

We'll see some great performances; some really good marks being set, possibly the best at the trials for many years - at least I hope [ Isn't that the logo for the National Lottery ]...

So forgive a non-expert's question, but how worried about Dai Greene's performance should we be? I understand that the objective is to peak at the Olympics (something I understand Van Zyl didn't do last year say), and one-off races are very different from making your way, but still to finish 4th has to be disappointing?

Oyepitan put in a good 200m and I liked her reaction afterwards, clearly thought she should be running faster than 22.7.

Coverage of the field events was particularly abysmal.

not massively fussed about Greene on the evidence of one race (where he didn't do well, but neither was it absolutely awful either: still went sub-49). He's been struggling with a virus (which made him pull out of last week's event) and that could still be affecting him. Of course if he's still running these sorts of times in three weeks that will be cause for worry. Going by his reaction he tried too hard to stick with Culsom when he wasn't fit enough to do so (for whatever reason that may be).

Like I said, not too worried... yet. Last year he wasn't actually winning the DL races, (though he was doing better than he did tonight) and yet come the worlds he looked unbeatable! Would have been happier with a time of 48.2 or thereabouts, but no need to panic yet.

Didn't manage to catch any of the action, but Oyepitan beat some very decent runners out there, and the 800m is starting to look very promising indeed.

Just caught up with the rest of the evening's performances.

Nicola Sanders looked a sad sight, and MLF and Ennis won't have been happy both getting DQ'd. So the evening ended on a relatively low note for us brits.

So so run by Tiffany Porter. So so jumping by Proctor.

Good 3000m steeplechase for Eilish McColgan on 9:38.45 for an A qualification for London.

Nick McCormick did well in a meeting in Spain though getting 13:18.81 for third place in a 5000m race as a PB and London A qualification time. (That's the 4th A standard now in the event so will be interesting to see who does best in the trials. I have a horrible feeling though that in the absence of pacemakers that race will result in a 13:50 winning time which will tell us very little about our best 3 come the Olympics.)

Was disappointed for MLF. He's lost weight and is looking better. He was so hungry for that last night. I guess that is why he DQ'd. He'll post a sub 10.1s clocking soon this season.

Assuming DC will post a good time soon. We'll have AG, MLF and DC with decent qualifying times for the 100m. A nice position to be in.

Honestly i dont think MLF is capable anymore, dont think he will be one of the 3 men lining up in the 100m unless gemilli decides not to go. Just my opinion of course and i hope he proves me wrong!

http://www.memorialprimonebiolo.org/ENG/risultati.aspx

Few brits in action tonight, chambers got decent conditions(+0.5) and still just dipped under 10.3. Clarke claimed a scalp of pozzi, 13.38 to 13.42.(came 4th and 5th). Hoping DC is just planning to peak at the right time, because usually he woul have posted at least sub 10.2 by now.

teassoc wrote:Just caught up with the rest of the evening's performances.

Nicola Sanders looked a sad sight, and MLF and Ennis won't have been happy both getting DQ'd. So the evening ended on a relatively low note for us brits.

So so run by Tiffany Porter. So so jumping by Proctor.

Good 3000m steeplechase for Eilish McColgan on 9:38.45 for an A qualification for London.

Nick McCormick did well in a meeting in Spain though getting 13:18.81 for third place in a 5000m race as a PB and London A qualification time. (That's the 4th A standard now in the event so will be interesting to see who does best in the trials. I have a horrible feeling though that in the absence of pacemakers that race will result in a 13:50 winning time which will tell us very little about our best 3 come the Olympics.)

Bit harsh describing Porter's run as "so-so" 12.7 and third spot not too bad really !

Pearson is outstanding , and only a fall can stop her in London ; but Porter has been pretty consistent and I rate her a decent chance of grabbing one of the minor medals , in an event that is very closely matched behind the one stand out leader.

As to the 5000 there are indeed four now with the A ... Is it possible Chris Thompson might decide just to concentrate on the 10000 ?

alfie wrote:

teassoc wrote:Just caught up with the rest of the evening's performances.

Nicola Sanders looked a sad sight, and MLF and Ennis won't have been happy both getting DQ'd. So the evening ended on a relatively low note for us brits.

So so run by Tiffany Porter. So so jumping by Proctor.

Good 3000m steeplechase for Eilish McColgan on 9:38.45 for an A qualification for London.

Nick McCormick did well in a meeting in Spain though getting 13:18.81 for third place in a 5000m race as a PB and London A qualification time. (That's the 4th A standard now in the event so will be interesting to see who does best in the trials. I have a horrible feeling though that in the absence of pacemakers that race will result in a 13:50 winning time which will tell us very little about our best 3 come the Olympics.)

Bit harsh describing Porter's run as "so-so" 12.7 and third spot not too bad really !

Pearson is outstanding , and only a fall can stop her in London ; but Porter has been pretty consistent and I rate her a decent chance of grabbing one of the minor medals , in an event that is very closely matched behind the one stand out leader.

As to the 5000 there are indeed four now with the A ... Is it possible Chris Thompson might decide just to concentrate on the 10000 ?

I agree that Porter is a good medal prospect. Right now it looks like she's being left a bit at the start. You are right my comments may have seemed a little harsh. 12.7 wasn't bad but that's a regular sort of level for her now and now needs to be looking for something a little faster - maybe 12.5 even - if she is going to medal. Nobody is going to beat Pearson though if she's on form.

As far as the 5000m is concerned Andy Vernon may not be fit in time for the Olympics as he's nursing a foot injury.

Yeah it is bad luck for Vernon...still four with the A though : Farah , Thompson, Farrell and now McCormick.

Big PB for Abigail Irozuru who jumped a legal PB of 6.80m today in Bulgaria. Joins Proctor with an A standard.

from tonight's DL meeting in New York, some good performances from the Brits:

Ohuorugu ran a SB in the 50.6 region to come fourth. Importantly she finished the race well, so the signs are there that she's creeping back into form.

Osagie continues to impress, producing an excellent race to come 3rd in a new PB (small one 1:44:61) behind the untouchable Rudisha. A couple of decent scalps for Andrew too, who's slowly but surely looking like a real contender in this event.

Okoro had a decent run too in the 800, also finishing third in a time of just under 2 minutes. Jemma Simpson ran a SB in that race, though she only came 6th.

Grabbaz had another really good HJ competition, finishing second on countback with a first time clearance of 2.36 (somewhat bizarrely the jump which cost him first place was his first of the competition at 2.25). Again, consistent good form, and he's right in the mix for London as things stand.

Some less good news:

though she came fourth, Sayers couldn't break the 60m barrier in the javelin.

Bingham ran in the 400m B race and came last in 46.99

Okoye struggled in the discus compared to previous form, throwing just over 63 m for fifth place.

All in all, pretty decent, the biggest positives obviously Osagie and Grabbaz.

Thanks for the update Mad for Chelsea!

Great to see Ohurugu's progress

Grabarz at 2.36 is a bit more than 'good consistent form'. That's badass medal winning form.

Besides Jesse Williams, who else is going that high at the moment?

Everyone agree with this (best medal hopes based on current form):

Significant probability
Jessica Ennis (heptathlon)
Phillips Idowu (triple jump)
Mo Farah (5000m/10000m)
Dai Green (400m hurdle s)
Robbie Grabarz (High Jump)
Greg Rutherford (Long Jump)

Looks good mate.

All Time Great wrote:Everyone agree with this (best medal hopes based on current form):

Significant probability
Jessica Ennis (heptathlon)
Phillips Idowu (triple jump)
Mo Farah (5000m/10000m)
Dai Green (400m hurdle s)
Robbie Grabarz (High Jump)
Greg Rutherford (Long Jump)

Seems about right.

The next group of possibles may be more contentious. On current form, I'd go for:

mens 4 x 400m
Okoye (Discuss)
Ohurugu (400m)
England (1500m)
Porter (100mh)
Proctor (LJ)
Aldama (Triple Jump)
Bleasdale (PV)

Outsiders would include:

Badley (1500m)
Osagie (800m)
One of Turner/Pozzi/Clarke 110mh
mens 4 X 100m
Rooney (400m)
Tomlinson (LJ)
Meadows (800m)
womens 4 X 100m

22 in total. Very unlikely of course that each of them will medal but anything between 10 and 14 should be possible given it's a home olympics.

Excellent listings of strong contenders, possibles and outside shots.

Another way of looking at it this, is that I think may be a big difference between the possibles and the outsiders, in particular, is that we're expecting the possibles to make their respective finals, with very few expected from the outsiders list to do so - on current form that is.

Interestingly, looking into the outsider category, each individual athlete has a different story to tell. . For example, Chris Tomlinson - who we know has some good long jumps in him - hasn't shown great form so far. Osagie has been awesome this season. But he is in a very, very highly competitive event. Taking for granted respective athletes have the basic marks and performances in the tank, its harder to get into 800 final than Long Jump final, in my view. There are athletes arriving on the scene, fresh, and showing promise. There are others who've been around a while, of whom we've expected, but have yet to see them achieve potential perhaps. Others, possibly returning from injury. Really interesting mix.

I would also include the women's 4 x 400 in there. And I won't write Paula Radcliffe off altogether , although I admit her chances look a lot slimmer than they did ...

Lewis has probably as much chance of surprising in the PV as Baddeley has in the 1500.
And despite a poor result yesterday Sayers isn't so far off the pace in the women's jav , though she would need at least one of the favourites to have a bad day.

Think that about exhausts the possibilities

Referring back to the list of Strong Candidates, Possibles, and Outside, a simpler way to describe things than in my earlier, wordy , post [ made a hash of the earlier post! ], is to look at the Strong Candidates in the list as our genuine medal hopefuls; the Possibles as genuine candidates for reaching finals [ and of course, once you're in a final, you never know! ]; and the Outsiders as with a possible chance of making it into finals [ but at this stage, with many of these athletes, not enough may be known about their individual situations and circumstances i.e. condition, fitness, form, experience ].

Plus, there's always that chance of one rather unexpected but remarkable performance. I guess we got to wait till after the trials and selection of athletes for London.

SJ that would be the more conservative way of looking at things and be in line with 10 medals in total. I think being in London many of those athletes ought to benefit from 'playing at home' and consequently do better than expected. I therefore think all 25 possibles (if you include alfie's additional candidates) stand a fair chance of reaching finals.

Clearly the top group includes everyone a lot of us would be disappointed if they didn't medal. Strong chances seems right for this lot.

The next group represent athletes who you wouldn't be surprised if they medalled, or be not too disappointed if they didn't. I'd be quite disappointed if none of them medalled.

The last group represent those who could pleasantly surprise us with medals. Bit like Turner last year.

So I am probaly a bit more bullish than some, but moreso because of the many excellent and in some cases hugely surprises performances we have seen these last couple of months.

teassoc wrote:SJ that would be the more conservative way of looking at things and be in line with 10 medals in total. I think being in London many of those athletes ought to benefit from 'playing at home' and consequently do better than expected. I therefore think all 25 possibles (if you include alfie's additional candidates) stand a fair chance of reaching finals.

Clearly the top group includes everyone a lot of us would be disappointed if they didn't medal. Strong chances seems right for this lot.

The next group represent athletes who you wouldn't be surprised if they medalled, or be not too disappointed if they didn't. I'd be quite disappointed if none of them medalled.

The last group represent those who could pleasantly surprise us with medals. Bit like Turner last year.

So I am probaly a bit more bullish than some, but moreso because of the many excellent and in some cases hugely surprises performances we have seen these last couple of months.

I am indeed being massively conservative at this moment. The points you make are absolutely sound though, including 25 possibles for makig finals. I do believe that group 2 - the Possibles - have a real chance. They've either collected a medal in the past, performed well in the past, or are setting very strong marks already this season; and if they get it right on the day, they will be in with a shout.

In the last group - Outsiders - again, there are possibles in there too. The example of Turner is a good one.

In some of the events, just getting someone in the final would be awesome - for example the sprints [ i.e. 100m and 200m ]. Kwakye getting into the 2008 100m final was a biggie for me!

I guess I'm remaining conservative until after the trials and seeing what unravels there, so I
can get a measure of how results and performances compare with the
world, especially, while under pressure from competition. But I suspect I will be getting very excited on the back of trials [ Just watch me! LOL ].

In Olympic year, with a home Olympics at that, we're starting to see some great perforamnces, and great form. But we have to consider that everyone else is also looking to raise their game too. It's tough and seriously competitive. But British athletes have made huge ground this year. Feels like a long time coming - it may be just my perception, but feel we've had a few lean years in terms of depth and breadth. And while we've had some successesnin the recent past, it's the depth and breadth of the talent and performances, at the present moment, which is hugely encouraging

London 2012: Dai Greene's Olympic build-up hurt by surgery
"Dai Greene's Olympic preparation has been hampered as the 400m hurdle world champion underwent knee surgery during the winter, it has been revealed.

The Welshman has begun his Olympic year with disappointing times as Greene, one of the favourites for gold at London 2012, is 14th fastest in the world.

Greene's season's best of 48.96 seconds is more than a second slower than the 2012 quickest Javier Culson. ... "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/wales/18469837

Is there enough time for Greene to recover and make up ground?!

He's running - but clearly lacking that extra spark and edge...

Good to know that there was an explanation for his latest performance.

Clearly not quite as good a Gold medal chance as we might have wished for. Let's see if clear favorites emerge from the US trials. Low 47's might be too good even for a fully fit Greene.

Suppose one could put a negative slant on this piece of information ... but on the other hand it perhaps explains why Greene has started his season slower than expected , and he has still got six weeks to get it right...
Obviously he has some work to do , but you'd expect him to get faster and I wouldn't be making any judgements until we've seen him run a couple more times.
US trials will indeed be interesting.

Not knowing the gravity of the injury or complexity of the surgery I just wish for him to get better and to avoid any repeat injury in the process. If that means not being a medal contender at this years Olympics so be it - there should be many more years left in his athletics career.

Stan Greenberg has made some predictions for medals. He's expecting 10 - 16 so quite a bit more than the UKA's target of 8. He even gives Jack Green a chance but I think that's quite unlikely. He'll do extremely well to make the final.

Stan has been very good in the past at predicting medals so let's remain hopeful of a spectacular performance.

teassoc wrote:Stan Greenberg has made some predictions for medals. He's expecting 10 - 16 so quite a bit more than the UKA's target of 8. He even gives Jack Green a chance but I think that's quite unlikely. He'll do extremely well to make the final.

Stan has been very good in the past at predicting medals so let's remain hopeful of a spectacular performance.

What are people's views on the UKA target of 8?!

Seems too low a target in my view

I think targets should be based on numbers getting into finals, and placings within finals (points from 1 to 8 etc).

I wonder what the "legacy" of the games will be apart from a few billion pounds added to the national debt and work for polish immigrants (etc). Whoops sorry for getting political.

Nore Staat wrote:I think targets should be based on numbers getting into finals, and placings within finals (points from 1 to 8 etc).

I wonder what the "legacy" of the games will be apart from a few billion pounds added to the national debt and work for polish immigrants (etc). Whoops sorry for getting political.

I like the idea of a points scoring system based on certain levels of achievement i.e. getting into finals, and placings in the final.

I'm really not pleased with a target of 8 medals. Too easy to achieve. Leaving UKA plenty scope to over-achieve and look good. Based upon the current simple system for measuring success, I'd have gone for 10 medals. It's achieveable whilst also being a challenging target.

I think 10 would be a target. As for the greene issue, i think theres still time. I mean hes ran 2 sub 49s which is still world class! I think come london he will be in sub 48 shape, say 47.75, whether or not thats enough though is another thing. The 400h is very VERY competotive now!

lfc91 wrote:I think 10 would be a target. As for the greene issue, i think theres still time. I mean hes ran 2 sub 49s which is still world class! I think come london he will be in sub 48 shape, say 47.75, whether or not thats enough though is another thing. The 400h is very VERY competotive now!

PB of 47.84 for Green in Paris tonight. So he seems to be recovering form very nicely.

Good run also by Lisa Dobriskey of 4:02.13 in coming 8th in Paris. So with a couple more weeks training she may also be back to her best.

That strong GB trio in the 1500m could surprise in London.

Very nice to see Greene come back out with an impressive run.

As I suggested above , the injury stuff was indeed behind him and it was more an issue of getting back to racing fast...he has certainly done that !

Culson and others will be tough to beat , ( no Jackson to worry about though! ) but I think we can keep him on the front page of the medal hopes...

TBO showing signs of getting back to her best too

Great Run from Dai Greene. Looked immensely strong. Going to be tough in london - but think Greene has a real chance!

Also, Christine Ohurugu; she didn't give herself enough of a shot
at the others by not comitting enough over that 2nd and 3rd 100m
segments of the Women's 400m. But she looked strong and finished strong.
If she can sort the middle section, and attack it more, she'll be in
the with a shout of a medal.

Impressive and powerful performance from Perri Shakes-Dreyton, in the cold, damp, windy conditions of Crystal Palace, as she broke her PB by four tenths of a second in the London Diamond League meeting (new PB 53.78 s) http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18838377

Nore Staat wrote:Impressive and powerful performance from Perri Shakes-Dreyton, in the cold, damp, windy conditions of Crystal Palace, as she broke her PB by four tenths of a second in the London Diamond League meeting (new PB 53.78 s) http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18838377

Finally got to see it today - was indeed impressive. Have moved her up a category in my list of prospects...

Have had to move Tiff Porter down sharply though after today ... not sure what is wrong with her but it didn't look good ... and she was quite distraught.

Big gains from day two for GB were Goldie Sayers with a new British record and a big scalp in Spotakova

And of course Christine O with a great run to finish the meeting : it is starting to look a lot more possible that she could actually defend her title ..

Have to agree regarding mentions of Sayers and Ohurugu.

Sayers' National Record was brilliant - made even more special by the fact series of throws, that would in turn no doubt give her tonnes of confidence going into the Olympics! Her performnace also reminded how sledom a National Record comes about. Truly well done to her

Ohurugu's performnace in the 400m was quite brilliant. Looking at the conditions, couldn't tell how committed she might be. It turns out she was taking it seriously enough, turhign in her best time and performnace of the season so far. That 50.42 is equivalent to sub50 on a decent day - easily. She's been looking stronger and stronger. I know many have begun to comment on her improving form and chances. Might she be a realistic contendor?! I think she is! Awesome stuff

Finally, what is with the weather?! It is beyond a joke!!! Not doing anyone any good - not even the farmers!

Ohurugu has an interesting running style - she runs with her body leaning forward (her back is at a forward angle), whereas all the other runners had more straight backs (more aligned along the vertical). It gives the impression of her getting a little more into her stride length. She also tends to run at an even pace throughout.

Wow, we were pretty close in the end. Wonderful Olympic Games