RWC - revisiting past predictions, and assessing current form.

I wrote this article 2 years ago, making my predictions on what I thought would happen this year.

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With 2011 only 2 years away, teams will now in earnest start looking at who of their current crop will be available, who of the new potential stars could be fast tracked to join the squad, problem areas in positions, how to protect their match winners and also start looking into their pools at which are the crunch matches and studying those opposition teams in detail.

My prediction is that the so called second tier nations will once again find it tough.

The gap between the professional teams and the rest will only become bigger as it will be evident in 2011.

Pool A

NZ
France
Tonga
Canada
Japan (assumption)

For NZ and France the only crunch game for 1st and 2nd will be the match of the pool. Prediction NZ will Take this match rather emphatically, for no other reason than to rub it in the face of the French for all the World Cup misery the French have imposed on them.

Thus
1st New Zealand
2nd France

Pool B

Argentina
England
Scotland
Romania(assumption)
Georgia(assumption)

In this pool England will fancy their chances of finishing first and knowing that they always front up during RWC, I predict them to lead this pool. Interesting enough Scotland has recently beaten Argentina and may feel there is a resurgence in their game, and will there for believe they can do it.

Crunch games England vs Argentina, Scotland vs Argentina

Thus
1st England
2nd Argentina

Pool C

Australia
Ireland
Italy
Spain (assumption)
Paragua (assumption)

To me it looks like Australia with their young team and 2 years to finalise their selections and development may be extremely dangerous in this tournament, however Ireland has built nicely, won the six nations, and if they can defend their title will feel that they are on top of the world. In that lies what for me will be one of the most exciting pool matches of the Tournament.

Thus
1st Australia
2nd Ireland

Pool D

South Africa
Wales
Fiji
Samoa
Namibia (assumption)

Not because I am a South African, even though these teams have the ability to run close with their physicality to most teams, I cannot see Wales, fiji or Samoa beating them. For me this pool is most interesting as there are 3 teams who will believe they can qualify for the quarter finals. Wales should do it, but as much as NZ has France as their bogey in RWC, Wales are playing the South Pacific Islanders and those matches will be the match ups of the pools. Crunch Matches Fiji vs Samoa, Fiji vs Wales, Wales vs Samoa.

Thus
1st South Africa
2nd Wales

Quarter Final 1

Australia vs Wales

Although Wales will go into this match with belief, it will probably be hope than than confidence, but barring a severe upset I cannot see Wales winning this one.


Quarter Final 2

England vs France

Ah! the old enemies. France has recently won in NZ, this will give them belief. The problem with France is you never know what to expect, they have in recent world cups, won matches they "shouldn't" have, and lost matches they should have won. For me this is the most difficult one to predict,it could go either way but my prediction France.

Quarter Final 3

South Africa vs Ireland

Ireland will believe they can win this match as much as the South African team will, both teams seem to have that dogged determination and hard headed ability to believe they are the best. However all signs at the moment point to a South African win. An upset may be on the cards.

Quarter Final 4

New Zealand vs Argentina.

Sadly for Argentina there can be only 1 result. New Zealand.

Semi Final 1

Australia vs France

The match between these two teams should be a spectacle of French flair and Australian attacking angles. The French will hope their forwards can dominate, but Australia are probably the team best equipped to deal with that. Prediction Australia.

Semi Final 2

South Africa vs New Zealand.

Firstly let me say, the fact that these two team have to meet in a semi final tells you the seeding in this RWC is flawed, why, there is no better final be it Tennis or Rugby where the two best should not meet in the final. be that as it may, this is the reverse of the 1995 final, New Zealand will have Fitzpatric in their dressing room and the passion and drive he will put into the New Zealand team will last them the first 40. No matter how much I would love to see my team win this one, it will not be. New Zealand to win.

Final.

Australia vs New Zealand.

The two Bledisloe teams have done this many times before, unfortunately for Australia, it is not in their back yard. There will be lots of Aussie fans, but this is New Zealand's campaign to win or lose.

I have tried to be as objective as I possibly can be, and respect all teams. This is my view 2 years out and many things can change, but for now this is how I see it.

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So what has happened since 17 September 2009?

All Blacks, 19 wins 1 loss

New Zealand swept all before them, after losing 3 tests against SA they turned around and beat them 3-0, they only lost 1 test against Australia last year in Hong Kong ending a 10 match winning streak against them.

Australia, 11 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses

Robbie deans has had a mixed bag, New Zealand has had a great run against them, England beat them twice. Significantly one of those wins were in Australia.

South Africa, 9 wins, 8 losses.

The Springboks after winning the B & I lions series and the Tri Nations fell apart in their end of year tour, the law changes and injuries put them significantly behind australia and New Zealand, add to that the "antics" of PDV, the question is can they adapt and do it in spite of their coach. The question is also can PDV and his coaching team bring anything new to the table.

Ireland, 10 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses

Ireland to me is a bit of a conundrum, 10 of their matches was either won or lost by less than a 7 points, they have been very successful in Europe over recent times, except for one blowout against France in Februay of 2010. The big question remains, how will they fair down under.

England, 10 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses

In recent times England at times looked like they are gaining momentum, and had some good results. This however does not necessarily mean they have gained enough, their bogey teams in the recent past has been New Zealand and South Africa, and now you can add Ireland to that list as well.

France, 12 wins, 6 losses

France has been rather consistent over the last two years, however the stats are a little decieving, having played only 2 of their tests outside of Europe, losing rather badly against SA and Argentina. But then how strong were those teams that travelled south. They are perhaps not so much a dark horse, but one of the front runners.

Wales, 7 wins, 1 draw, 13 losses

To Wales' credit, 5 of their losses were within 7 points, but even that cannot take away from the fact that Wales are in trouble, over the past two years, their only win of significance was against Ireland.

Scotland, 8 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses

13 of Scotlands matches were within 10 points, they had one blow out against New Zealand, you can never count them out, they may have a small pool of players, but are always competitive.

So has my predictions changed in two years?

I can see a few different outcomes.

Pools

Scotland may just put Argentina out, they are definitely in with a shout.
I could see Fiji or Samoa qualifying for the quarters.
I could see Ireland upset Australia

Quarter finals

Well I can't see Australia or New Zealand lose in the quarters, they have "easier" matches than the others.

Ireland vs SA and France vs England will both be tough encounters with no guarantees either way.

Semi Finals

Well from here is anybodies guess.

To me Fiji are nowhere near as good as their 2007 team and I suspect them to have a poor enough World Cup. Samoa are the danger team in Pool D.

I am really looking forward to seeing the USA v Russia encounter in Pool C where exciting backs Vasily Artimiev and Z Ngwenya will go head to head. Ireland v Australia is the other matchup in this pool. I think Italy are flattering to deceive and will lose comfortably against Ireland and Australia.

biltongbek wrote:I wrote this article 2 years ago, making my predictions on what I thought would happen this year.

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Pool B

Argentina
England
Scotland
Romania(assumption)
Georgia(assumption)

In this pool England will fancy their chances of finishing first and knowing that they always front up during RWC, I predict them to lead this pool. Interesting enough Scotland has recently beaten Argentina and may feel there is a resurgence in their game, and will there for believe they can do it.

Crunch games England vs Argentina, Scotland vs Argentina

Thus
1st England
2nd Argentina
I have tried to be as objective as I possibly can be, and respect all teams. This is my view 2 years out and many things can change, but for now this is how I see it.

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So what has happened since 17 September 2009?

I can see a few different outcomes.

Pools

Scotland may just put Argentina out, they are definitely in with a shout.
I could see Fiji or Samoa qualifying for the quarters.
I could see Ireland upset Australia

biltong, sure hope that you are right with your revisions, buddy

AsLongasBut100ofUs, mate I aim to please.

Nah............

Good article biltong. The most interesting thing for me is how much better NZ's win/loss ratio has been over the past few years than everyone elses. France come closest but everyone else has lost as many as they've won.

I know that this doesn't paint a true picture as to where each team is at but it is interesting non the less.

Ireland and SA have definitely gone backwards in the past two season but look to be finding their feet again. Australia and Wales have probably stood still and England have improved marginally. NZ remain head and shoulders above everyone else.

I will very surprised if New Zealand, France, England, Australia, Ireland and South Africa don't make the quarter finals.

The only issues for me are whether Scotland or Argentina come out of Pool 2, and whether or not Wales can avoid getting beaten up and dumped out by one of the Pacific Island sides, most likely Samoa.

In answer to my own issues, I have to say I think Scotland will dump Argentina out as they are not the side they were 4 years ago, and I have a real feeling that Samoa could do the same for to Wales and leave us with a QF line up of...

Australia vs. Samoa
England vs. France
South Africa vs. Ireland
New Zealand vs. Scotland

If that is the case, I would find it difficult to look past the pool winners progressing through their quarter finals, with the possible exception of Ireland turning over the South Africans.

For me it will be a totally predictable semi final line up of

Australia vs. England
South Africa vs. New Zealand

which I don't necessarily think is good for the sport. The game needs something out of the norm to happen to spark interest amongst occasional fans who see the sport as elitist on a global scale, with the top tier of nations generally so far removed in terms of playing strength from the tier below.

What would be great for the sport, is if one of the Pacific Nations sides, and I would say it is only Samoa who would have even an outside chance of doing it, could make it through the the semis and the 3rd/4th place play off. Really shake up the elite and perhaps knock out on of the Tri Nations sides (Australia in the QF???).

Now that would make for an entertaining World Cup and would make occasional fans sit up and take a bit of notice.

Apart from the potential horror show that is Wales's group, I'm really looking forward to seeing how Pool B goes. It's by no means a foregone conclusion that England are going to top that group.

The fact that Ireland have 2 cracks at beating a SH team is the big fly in the ointment.
If they beat Australia or SA then all 3 Tri Nations teams will be in the same half of the draw.

Ireland are the team who can ensure a NH finalist.

For me France are the dark horses who I think will have a good World Cup. Lievremont is a clown but I think they'd turn over England.

geoff998rugby wrote:The fact that Ireland have 2 cracks at beating a SH team is the big fly in the ointment.
If they beat Australia or SA then all 3 Tri Nations teams will be in the same half of the draw.

Ireland are the team who can ensure a NH finalist.

If they beat SA, it'll be the quarter final, and SA will be out . And for that to happen either Aus will have won the pool game and gone through to the other side, or Wales will have upset the form books and beaten SA.

If they beat Aus then you are correct, and we're looking at a probable SA vs Aus qtr-final, and a winner vs NZ SF.

Would Ireland or France making the semis be a shock to anyone? I would say it shouldn't be. Ireland are currently ranked 4th in the World with France not a long way behind.

I just hope that someone from outside the Tier 1 Nations has a good tournament and knocks one of the big boys out.

I think Scotland will get through quite comfortably. They are progressing, and have a big combatitive pack.

They just need to find that little bit of spark in the midfield.

But i still say the eventual winners will be the Boks...

LDCPete wrote:Would Ireland or France making the semis be a shock to anyone? I would say it shouldn't be. Ireland are currently ranked 4th in the World with France not a long way behind.

I just hope that someone from outside the Tier 1 Nations has a good tournament and knocks one of the big boys out.

Samoa, Italy, Fiji, Georgia and very maybe maybe MAYBE Tonga beating France / Russia beating Italy (but I wouldn't consider either of those last two realistic) are the possibilities and probably in that order.

If France can turn over two big teams in a row then backing them may be a good idea.

Would love Ireland to turn over one of SA or Aussie-would really throw the cat amongst the pigeons.

NZ's record is by far and away the most consistent but it's quite funny-Henry's got them at roughly 80%-but since we're playing ten tests a year on average we'll lose at least twice. From a head to head point of view the World Cup losses seem to be in line with the average!

Pool B is the most interesting overall. Who'll get the QF short straw?

Good biltong. Trouble is theres always an upset somewea in each tourney. Just hope it isnt us again!

disneychilly wrote:Would love Ireland to turn over one of SA or Aussie-would really throw the cat amongst the pigeons.

Thanks disney, now you've gone and hurt my feelings

Are Ireland capable of playing at their best consistantly for the period required to win the WC.

I would say their ability is good enough, but i question their consistency.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Are Ireland capable of playing at their best consistantly for the period required to win the WC.

I would say their ability is good enough, but i question their consistency.

We don't need to be. 3 poor games where we limp to victories over Italy, USA and Russia. Raise our game to beat Australia Then a dour win over a knackered Wales team in the quarters. Turn in a superb game against the old enemy England who we know how to beat. And then just need 1 good display in the final to win whole thing.

Easy peasy

GeordieFalcon wrote:Are Ireland capable of playing at their best consistantly for the period required to win the WC.

I would say their ability is good enough, but i question their consistency.

The thing is though we could limp through the group - 2nd to Australia then raise ourselves for a huge effort to beat SA.
If its England in the semi then a POC team talk should ensure job done

Might lose 35-3 in the Final but hey least we will be there.

My point is that getting to a WC final requires 2 top performances not 5/6

red_stag wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Are Ireland capable of playing at their best consistantly for the period required to win the WC.

I would say their ability is good enough, but i question their consistency.

We don't need to be. 3 poor games where we limp to victories over Italy, USA and Russia. Raise our game to beat Australia Then a dour win over a knackered Wales team in the quarters. Turn in a superb game against the old enemy England who we know how to beat. And then just need 1 good display in the final to win whole thing.

Easy peasy

Hey when you put it like that stag its as good as in the bag!

BTW if you want handy money a Ireland v NZ final is given odds of 27-1

geoff998rugby wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Are Ireland capable of playing at their best consistantly for the period required to win the WC.

I would say their ability is good enough, but i question their consistency.

The thing is though we could limp through the group - 2nd to Australia then raise ourselves for a huge effort to beat SA.
If its England in the semi then a POC team talk should ensure job done

Might lose 35-3 in the Final but hey least we will be there.

My point is that getting to a WC final requires 2 top performances not 5/6

If Ireland come 2nd then they'll play South Africa. If they turn over South Africa, the only way they'll get England in the semi-final is if England runner-up their group and then knock out whoever tops the New Zealand/France pool (probably New Zealand). If everything goes to form, Ireland will have to top their pool to avoid New Zealand in the semi-final.

My predictions are England Vs Australia and New Zealand Vs South Africa in the semi-finals, but if Ireland or France ended up in a semi-final I wouldn't be shocked.

Right im off to the bookies....Ireland it is

South Africa, Wales, Fiji and Samoa will do fantastic damage to each other in that pool, none of those countries has great strength in depth, whichever 2 of them reach the quarters they will be ripe for picking!
It's complicated because Wales could smash Namibia giving us a good points difference because 4 days earlier South Africa will play Namibia and youd have to assume Namibia wont want a huge score against them, so Wales could face Namibias second team.
It's also fair to say Fiji and Samoa have a glorious history against Wales but in truth they will be just as concerned about beating each other to establish which is stronger amongst the Islands teams.

Spain and Paraguay to qualify? How did you manage to predict that?

Nambia will want to give their big neighbour SA a right good go i would imagine, with the liikes of Jaques Burger etc pretty good players.

They could give Wales a good game if they take the typical South African physical approach.

Ok Beat Australia then and have an easy QF against the Welsh - still no problem :run2:

I can't see Namibia troubling South Africa in the slightest.

Aw no i dont think they'll beat SA or as you say come close...but they'll have a go...and i think it'll be a physical game

GeordieFalcon wrote:Aw no i dont think they'll beat SA or as you say come close...but they'll have a go...and i think it'll be a physical game

The only official test they played against the springboks they lost 105-13, not much of a game.

Alright i stand corrected...jeez

Biltong,

Spain and Paraguay?

MBTGOG wrote:Biltong,

Spain and Paraguay?

Can't remember mate, that was two years ago.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Alright i stand corrected...jeez

Consider yourself reprimanded.

Lol thats gonna bug MBTGOG for ever.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:Lol thats gonna bug MBTGOG for ever.

Yeah, I suppose I have to now apologise profusely for "assuming" teams are gonna make it and then don't. MBTGOG, if you ever come to SA, I'll buy you a beer just to make up for the stress I caused you.

Sorry Biltong I'll just say I'd love for Ireland to beat Australia then. I live in Dublin so have to watch my back

In Ireland isn't it the knees you have to worry about?

disneychilly wrote:Sorry Biltong I'll just say I'd love for Ireland to beat Australia then. I live in Dublin so have to watch my back

The Biltong is not in today, due to heartbreaking news of turning loyalties, he had to take a personal day.