Cheltenham Gold Cup - Trends

Not sure how many of you, if any use historic trends when it comes to selecting horses to back. Some people swear by them, others choose to disregard their relevance as at the end of the day trends and records are there to be broken.
I for one use them for many of the big meetings as a guide, they can point you towards some value on occasions (they can also point you in completely the wrong direction too !!!!) and i'm going to be sifting through some of the key trends soon to see if any value pops up for the Festival however one race i've already been looking at is the Gold Cup.
I've listed below some of the Key Trends and it's interesting some of the horses it knocks out -

10 of the last 10 winners were aged between seven and nine - Rules out Denman, Kauto Star, Imperial Commander, Tidal Bay, Albertas Run & Neptune Collonges

10 of the last 10 winners started in the first three in the betting - Won't know until the day of the race

10 of the last 10 winners had run between two and five times in the current season - Another negative for Denman & Imperial Commander but also for Diamond Harry and Pride of Dulcote

9 of the last 10 winners had won a Graded chase that season - Another negative for Denman along with a handful of outsiders

9 of the last 10 winners had won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival previously - A negative for Pandorama, Weird Al, What A Friend, Kempes, & Joncol

9 of the last 10 winners had run between six and fourteen times over fences - This is another negative for Pandorama, Diamond Harry, Time For Rupert & Weird Al

So what does this tell us .... Yep, you're quite right, I've got way too much time on my hands !!!

That said, one horse that doesn't get mentioned as a negative in any of the above is Long Run, however i just cannot have this horse around Cheltenham, it's performance last year at the Festival and then again earlier in the season when defeated by Little Josh just gives me no confidence whatsoever that it performs at the course. Maybe i'm wrong, it's King George performance was something special i think, but up and and down dale at Prestbury Park is not the same as a flat galloping track like Kempton. The other horse that does take my eye at a price is Midnight Chase. It's run six times at Cheltenham and it's record reads 231111. At 22/1 with Corals & Victor Chandler could this one be progressive enough to step up into the real big league ..... 3.20pm on Friday 18th March we will all find out.

some very interesting stats there grahame.

If by going through that it has to be LONG RUN. Purely on the one stat that we dont know yet, the first 3 in the betting. Long Run currently second favourite and dont expect him to drop below both kauto and denman come the day. i cant really be having midnight chase purely as he hasnt beaten a horse that could really have an affect of the outcome of the gold cup. saying that imperial commander is a different horse around cheltenham so it could be a case of horses for courses.

when was the last time a 6 year old won a gold cup?? surely that has to be a negative for long run

Enigma,

You're quite right re Long Run, a bit of a schoolboy error on my part that it is most definately a negative being a 6 yr old, Mill House in the 60's would have been the last 6yr old to win the Gold Cup, so is even more a negative than for Imperial Commander, as 10yr olds have won at least 5 or 6 times since then. I don't think a 6yr old has been placed in the GC for many a year, that coupled with my assumption that Long Run doesn't act around Cheltenham would steer me even further away from backing it. The problem with trends for some races is you can come up with so many and end up discounting the entire field ... I think the Gold Cup may be one of those races this year. Another stat is that the last 10 winners had all won a Grade One chase, Midnight Chase hasn't and I would agree with you that having not beaten any of the principals in this years race is a negative. Breeding is another thing i look at, you do need an out and out stayer at Cheltenham, Midnight Chase might not have the best breeding for the GC and also British Bred horses do not have a great record in the race either in recent years. Kauto, Denman, Best Mate, Imperial Commander etc were either French or Irish Bred.

Maybe it's a case of over analysing things .... with all these trends it looks like nothing will win the Gold Cup !!!!!

Oh well, at least i can start on the National when the weights are out in about and hour !!!

Grahame1971 wrote:

Maybe it's a case of over analysing things .... with all these trends it looks like nothing will win the Gold Cup !!!!!

Lol!

Great thread Grahame........it must take a lot of time and brain power to work out trends......I wouldn't know where to start.

It's going to be a very interesting Gold Cup this year, quite open, I think, tho' if Kauto manages to win I'll eat my laptop!

Anyway, keep up the good work..........looking forward to reading your Grand National thoughts.

Solerina

yeah i know what you mean. im sure if you really fancied a particular horse im sure there is a trend in which every horse could probably win. saying that i went on imperial commanader purely on the fact of trends and from the trends i looked at he was the only one who fit. i tried trends for a few of the races last year which i didnt have a great deal of knowledge about and come no way near a winner. i suppose if you were looking at the 6 year old trend then i guess it depends on how many 6 year olds have actually ran in a gold cup. wouldnt have thought there would be too many.

i agree with you that you need an out and out stayer, thats why i think tidal bay could well run into at least a place. i remember the year after he won the arkle they tried stepping him up and he didnt seem to stay even 3 miles. now he really does look like he could stay all day and with a great burst of pace too. just hope he doesnt find himself too far behind come the business end of the race. i am very interested in him for the national but cant see johnson keeping him in there if he is right at the top of the weights. unfortunately i cant see him being out the first 3 or 4 in the weights