Have Wales got an easy World Cup run to the final?

First topic message reminder :

Two PI teams in their pool, who may well give a good game but should be beatable. Probably lose to South Africa but second in the pool still goes through. Then it'll be a Quarter Final game against Australia who, let's face it, are the weakest Tri-Nation side and are definately beatable. Semi-Final will probably be France, who will be exhausted after beating their bogey side in the WC, England. So the only half decent sides they'll have to play will be France and Australia.

That's easy isn't it?

emack2 wrote:
There record over the last 5 years is better than Englands with two Grand slams to there credit.[2005,2008

It's their, not there.

You do know it's 2011 ? That puts 2005 6N over 6 years ago. Wales record in the last 5 years is not as good Englands.

Going back 5 years from today, Wales have played 59 won 25 and drawn 2, a success rate of 44.06% England have played 58 won 28 and drawn 1, a success rate of 49.13

In the last 5 6N competitions, Wales have finished 5th, 1st, 4th, 4th and 4th with an average position of 3.6. England have finished 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd and 1st with an avwerage position of 2.2. This means England have been closer to 2nd and Wales closer to 4th in the last 5 years.

I think the statistics prove that Wales record is not better than Englands over the last 5 years.

hmmm of course nottins we have beaten England 3 times in the last five years compared to england winning twice. Four times if you were to take it back to our grand slam in 2005.

England have managed to win one championship( not a grand slam mind) since 2006 and Wales have also won a championship but with a clean sweep.

So I think the statistics prove wales record is better than England over the last five years.

TycroesOsprey wrote:hmmm of course nottins we have beaten England 3 times in the last five years compared to england winning twice. Four times if you were to take it back to our grand slam in 2005.

England have managed to win one championship( not a grand slam mind) since 2006 and Wales have also won a championship but with a clean sweep.

So I think the statistics prove wales record is better than England over the last five years.

I'm not quite sure how you can say that Wales have a better record than England in the last 5 years, they have a lower winning percentage than England and won less games than England even though they played more games. Also in the last 5 years England and Wales have played each other 6 times, with 3 wins each: England v Wales last 5 years.

The statistics prove that Wales record is not better than England over the last 5 years.

Also England made it to the 2007 RWC final and I won't mention what happened to us. No point verbal jousting with the Old Enemy. Two games coming up for bragging rights going into the RWC, though if I were honest I don't think it'll go too well. More of the same I'm afraid

Thomond wrote:How is Howley still in a job?

Great question. Maybe he shows up well in training like Gareth Cooper once did.

Oh God.how pedantic can you get,a minor spelling error,and a year out.
Your ratings stats are no doubt accurate,but that was`nt my point.
Post 2003 if you wish to be hyper accurate they have managed two Grand Slams 2005,and 2008,on a third occassion they were JOINT second or fourth.
In my book IF several sides are on equal number of wins in a tournament that position is SHARED.
No bonus points are used in the 6Ns about the only major one not using them.
A few points difference in a 5 match tournament is hardly satisfactory method of decision.
Yes ,before you squeal it is the method used and by that measure England finished 2 not 4 in one tournament.
My Point was I do NOT consider Wales a third rate side,but that there RWC record is patchy.
I fully expect this to be a very tough Group ,take NO side for granted,and i think yes Wales will progress but it will be tough.
I do NOT support Wales,but first and always The ALL BLACKS,since 1953,then England or Scotland in that order versus anyone but the AB`s.
I hate RWCs but I belittle NO side in it,Knockout Matches bring big surprises.
I EXPECT ALL the Big Eight sides to reach the Knockout stages in a RWC but they seldom do.
I HOPE the All Blacks win it to get the monkey off there back,I EXPECT it will be either SA or Australia.
I THINK it is a RWC to early for England 2015 being more realistic,France if the find consistency COULD win it.
BUT to be frank I don`t really CARE who wins the thing I hate it.

A minor spelling error you keep repeating. Your whole point was about Wales having a better record over England, they don't even have a better record if you go back to 23 Jul 2005.

It doesn't matter about your "book", the facts are the 6N tables, it doesn't show =2nd, it shows 4th, the 6N committee decides this, not you or I.

No bonus points are awarded in the 6N because it's not a home and away tournament. If bonus points were awarded in the 6N it would be possible for a side that lost a match could finish top of the 6N table, in front of the side that has completed a Grand Slam

nottins wrote:No bonus points are awarded in the 6N because it's not a home and away tournament. If bonus points were awarded in the 6N it would be possible for a side that lost a match could finish top of the 6N table, in front of the side that has completed a Grand Slam

I've always thought that was a silly argument. All you would need to be is put a line into the rules that says something like "Any team winning all five of their fixtures will be awarded an additional five bonus points". Problem solved. The minimum number of points any Grand Slam winning team would earn is 25. The maximum number of points a team could earn with the next best record is 22.

I think it's a silly suggestion to say you should be awarded another 5 points for achieving a Grand Slam. The next best record would actually be 21.

nottins wrote:I think it's a silly suggestion to say you should be awarded another 5 points for achieving a Grand Slam. The next best record would actually be 21.

Draw=2 points
4 bonus point wins=20 points

It's even possible to get a try bonus point and draw, giving 23 points.

Why so? A Grand Slam is a special achievement, but the 6N needs to move with the times to get in line with the rest of the rugby world and for the survival of NH rugby we need to put more emphasis on attack- off and on the pitch.

In your scenario there would be no Grand Slam.

So you're suggesting that the 6N should become a home and away tournament ? You're seriously suggesting that the lack of bonus points in the 6N will send NH rugby into decline ?

nottins wrote:In your scenario there would be no Grand Slam.

So you're suggesting that the 6N should become a home and away tournament ? You're seriously suggesting that the lack of bonus points in the 6N will send NH rugby into decline ?

I didn't say any of those things. A Grand Slam is the state of affairs when a team wins all five of their fixtures, so my 'scenario' doesn't change that. Regarding home and away, the answer is no. The advantage the Six Nations has over the TriNations is there isn't the same over saturation with the same opposition visiting every year.

I think that NH teams need to be able to attack as effectively as the big SH sides to have a chance of achieving any kind of parity and to do this test sides must be given an incentive to do so- the use of the ball in the Six Nations is incredibly poor compared to the TriNations. I also think that in markets like Scotland and Italy, a dour brand of rugby will see casual fans preferring other sports.

emack,

A Kiwi that supports England as his second team? I've never heard of that happening before. You sir are an enigma.

How can anyone actually hate the RWC though? You actually hate it? Strong word fella!

The point is as you say the IRB makes these decisions,not you or I .
Agreed,BUT the 6Ns is the only major one NOT to use them,and those and some like the Super Series are not true home and away fixtures.
6Ns Grandslams are still relatively rare,but there is no reason why the bonus system cannot be used.It is a simple matter to write in the tournament regulations.
In the event of a TIED Tournament Bonus points difference will count,in the 3Ns only one in 15 since 1996 did this event occur 2004..
The Difference in England v Wales matches head to head is England have a two game advantage 55-53.
My point was to call Wales a third rate team was a cheap jibe,not worthy of sensible debate,When patently inthe NH they are NOT.

A side could also lose all its matches and finish 3rd in the 6N if bonus points were awarded, is that a satisfactory outcome ? Next Notch will say you should lose 5 points if you lose 5 games. :eyesroll:

Not quite sure why you've now changed your tune to head to head matches between England and Wales ? It's not as if a relevant statistic as to how Wales are ranked at this moment in time. Is it because I proved that Wales don't have the better record over the last 6 years ?

nottins wrote:A side could also lose all its matches and finish 3rd in the 6N if bonus points were awarded, is that a satisfactory outcome ? Next Notch will say you should lose 5 points if you lose 5 games. :eyesroll:

Sure, if the other teams aren't good enough to finish ahead of them.

Nottins, I HAVE not changed my tune at all,IRB ratings have as little to do with my point as the head to head stat.
My point is wales are not a third rate side,in ANY given year any 5 of the 6Ns can do the Grand Slam.
Any side if there not careful can be ambushed by Italy,every side goes through slumps.
Relatively speaking England 2003-7 suffered that badly,not surprisingly as a Great side retiring almost at once.plus long term injuries to JW did`nt help.
IF you want me to say that my statement about the records of the period was incorect FINE I do that now.
That does`nt change the fact that Wales have won TWO Grand slams post RWC 2003.England have Not.
As to bonus points I personally don`t like them but the IRB makes the rules.

WAles have only finished in the top 3 of the 6N twice - that is an appalling record even allowing for the fact they were 2 Grand Slams.

Even if we have home and away Six Nations, a team could win the Grand Slam and lose the Championship.

Team A: 10 wins, no bonus points - 40 points
Team B: 8 wins, 2 losses (to team A), 10 try bonus points, 2 losing bonus points - 44 points

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

Risca Rev wrote:

MBTGOG wrote:Won't they be playing Ireland in the quarters no?

You're correct with the no part

Sadly when Wales and Ireland both top their groups they will end up missing each other in the QFs. It is possible as i believe Wales have SA in the first week so we can catch them on the hop.

Scarlet - dont think Wales will be able to catch SA on the hop! They will have just come out of their Tri-Nations. If anyone is rusty in the 1st games it will be the NH teams whove only had their warmups.

propdavid_london wrote:dont think Wales will be able to catch SA on the hop! They will have just come out of their Tri-Nations. If anyone is rusty in the 1st games it will be the NH teams whove only had their warmups.

I didn't mean that they would be rusty, more over confident, and possibly a touch cocky. Wales are not playing well, and I am not too sure if that will change over the warm ups (most likely they will be used to try people out), however that may well play in the Welsh sides favour as I think that we may be taken a bit too lightly, with SA maybe considering the likes of Samoa more of a threat, especially given recent results of SA ans Samoa against Aus.

Fair point scarlet - that is a possibility, Peter DeVilliers has chosen a weak squad to tour in the Tri-Nations, but I am sure he will select much stronger sides in their home fixtures. We can then get a better idea of their mentality when we see those results (ie. if they are hammered again they may not underestimate anyone in the WC).

I was kind of hoping that Argentina would be overconfident going into the England fixture, as England are invariably rubbish in their first game!

England have beaten Wales in their last 2 matches home and away. That's more a reflection of the true level of the sides. The most recent matches are by far the most important.

Does any Welsh person really think Wales are better than England based on current form?

Wales are not a bad side - they are just going through a rough patch. Will they beat South Africa? 1 win in about 20 matches would tell you - probably not. If they build a bit of confidence and momentum then you never though....

Should definitely dispatch Fiji and Samoa despite being under pressure to perform.

Will they beat Australia? We'll see but world cup pedigree would point to an Aussie win.