My Fellow Irish Fans Do Any Of You Really Beleive We Can Win It This Year

First topic message reminder :

Because i do.

Not only on paper imho we have the second best team in the world behind NZ but i really believe that this will be the tourney we finally reach our potential as a team with it being BOD's and POC swangsong so to speak

Is it common in Ireland to abbrieviate the word Tournement to "tourney"? It certainly isn't up this way.

Dont believe so Rodderm old bean old chap, what what what!!!??

I don't think it's common to use 'Tourney' anywhere outside the 15th century to be honest. We could have ourselves a time travelling wum here gentlemen. Be on your guard, there may be ninjas.

Boyne sir I do fear we may have an imposter on our hands....

Please stay on topic, attack the subject not the poster.

Getting back to the subject at hand.

Ireland have two routes to a final.

Beat Australia
Beat Scotland or England
Beat France
Beat New Zealand


or

Lose vs Australia
Beat South Africa
Beat New Zealand
Beat Australia/France/England

Route one they have to play two Tri Nation teams

Route two they have to play all three Tri Nation teams.

In their history they have never beaten all three in the same year, the best they ever did in the professional era war 2009, beating SA, but drawing vs australia.
Last year they lost to Australia , New Zealand and SA.

I am sorry but I don't see Ireland winning the cup.

Well I'm neither an Irishman nor a wummer.

This RWC is (in my opinion) a watershed time for the Irish.

I wrote an article about the weight of history a couple of weeks ago.

Ireland have in many ways shed the yoke of the 'underdog' over the past ten years - in the Northern Hemisphere, but have proven nothing on the global level especially in the SH.

In order to seal their standing in World rugby, it is imperative that the magnificent blend of Dad's Army and talented newcomers outperform the natural conservative expectations of their supporters.

Ireland simply have to beat Australia in order to start getting the monkey off their backs.

I think that they are the best positioned of all the NH sides to go all the way.

And I can foresee a EvI 2015 RWC final.

Ireland to win the world cup?


Not this time, What are the odds at the moment?

Carpe Diem wrote:I don't think it's common to use 'Tourney' anywhere outside the 15th century to be honest. We could have ourselves a time travelling wum here gentlemen. Be on your guard, there may be ninjas.

LOL! Hialr!

Yes, no. Ireland wont win the world cup. I'd give us a 5% chance of winning it.

I think we have a chance of beating Oz in the groups, but I feel that there is a bigger chance that Italy beats us than us beating Oz.

If we beat Oz, we will go to the final. Of that I am sure. Well, almost.

Either way, all I know if that this weekend is virtually the last weekend I have to suffer without internatinal rugby. So, happy times for all.

biltongbek wrote:In their history they have never beaten all three in the same year, the best they ever did in the professional era war 2009, beating SA, but drawing vs australia.
Last year they lost to Australia , New Zealand and SA.

I am sorry but I don't see Ireland winning the cup.

Actually Ireland beat both SA and Australia in Autumn 2006.

Last year we lost narrowly against SA (home) and Australia (away) so I don't think it is beyond reason that we can beat either of these teams. NZ is the sticking point as we haven't even came close to beating them home or away in recent seasons but you are assuming that none of the SH teams will get upset by other teams.

biltongbek wrote:Getting back to the subject at hand.

Ireland have two routes to a final.

Beat Australia
Beat Scotland or England
Beat France
Beat New Zealand


or

Lose vs Australia
Beat South Africa
Beat New Zealand
Beat Australia/France/England

That's not right is it? They play South Africa or Wales in the QF, and then England, France, New Zealand, Scotland or Argentina, etc in the semi's. So the top one should be, beat Australia, beat Wales, beat France or England/Scotland/Argentina, beat New Zealand

biltongbek wrote:Getting back to the subject at hand.

Ireland have two routes to a final.

Beat Australia
Beat Scotland or England
Beat France
Beat New Zealand

Which route is this?

Beat Australia and we play Wales and then probably winner of England v France in semi final.

roddersm wrote:

biltongbek wrote:In their history they have never beaten all three in the same year, the best they ever did in the professional era war 2009, beating SA, but drawing vs australia.
Last year they lost to Australia , New Zealand and SA.

I am sorry but I don't see Ireland winning the cup.

Actually Ireland beat both SA and Australia in Autumn 2006.

Last year we lost narrowly against SA (home) and Australia (away) so I don't think it is beyond reason that we can beat either of these teams. NZ is the sticking point as we haven't even came close to beating them home or away in recent seasons but you are assuming that none of the SH teams will get upset by other teams.

My apologies, I went through the test results and saw the loss to Australia in Perth and missed your win at Landsdown road.

No I am not assuming anything here, route one you WILL play Australia in the pools, and you WILL play New Zealand in the final.

Route two, you WILL play australia in the pools, you WILL by 90% certainty play SA in the quarter and 100 % certainty you WILL play New ZEaland in the Semi's.

Biltongbek the only thing that is certain is that we WILL play Australia and Italy. There are no certainties as to who, if anyone, we will play after that.

I believe we have a fair chance of beating any side, bar NZ but there are no guarantees that we WILL play them at all.

Seeing as the was brought back yesterday can we start a petition for a flying pig smiley as it would sit well within this topic!

roddersm wrote:Biltongbek the only thing that is certain is that we WILL play Australia and Italy. There are no certainties as to who, if anyone, we will play after that.

I believe we have a fair chance of beating any side, bar NZ but there are no guarantees that we WILL play them at all.

I sorry bud, but I think you are creating a bubble for yourself. And when it bursts you are going to be awfully upset.

Biltong, do you not think Ireland CAN in theory beat any team bar New Zealand. I can't see why that is ridiculous. Ireland will have to avoid New Zealand to win the tournament and its certainly not the logical outcome but lets say:

Beat Italy
Beat Russia
Beat USA
Beat Australia narrowly, maybe a dodgey referee call.
Beat Wales
Beat England
Play Australia again in the Final and buoyed by their win they manage to beat them.

Victory. Stranger things have happened.

biltongbek wrote:

roddersm wrote:Biltongbek the only thing that is certain is that we WILL play Australia and Italy. There are no certainties as to who, if anyone, we will play after that.

I believe we have a fair chance of beating any side, bar NZ but there are no guarantees that we WILL play them at all.

I sorry bud, but I think you are creating a bubble for yourself. And when it bursts you are going to be awfully upset.

Which bubble is this then? That Ireland are capable of beating the majority of the teams that they come across in the WC?

Why is that you feel that it is impossible for Ireland to beat Australia or SA?

I'm not EXPECTING to beat anyone, hence I am not looking past the group games so I'm not sure what you think I will be upset about?

biltongbek wrote:

roddersm wrote:Biltongbek the only thing that is certain is that we WILL play Australia and Italy. There are no certainties as to who, if anyone, we will play after that.

I believe we have a fair chance of beating any side, bar NZ but there are no guarantees that we WILL play them at all.

I sorry bud, but I think you are creating a bubble for yourself. And when it bursts you are going to be awfully upset.

Yip. We will all be very upset indeed. Better not even watch the RWC. Seeing as though SA are so hot right now..

Look at England in last World Cup. Spanked in pool stages and had a few good displays out of nowhere. Ultimately beaten by a better side in the final. Could same not happen to Ireland.

red_stag wrote:Look at England in last World Cup. Spanked in pool stages and had a few good displays out of nowhere. Ultimately beaten by a better side in the final. Could same not happen to Ireland.

No I dont think it can becaue Ireland never do well at the RWC.......

red_stag wrote:Look at England in last World Cup. Spanked in pool stages and had a few good displays out of nowhere. Ultimately beaten by a better side in the final. Could same not happen to Ireland.

I don't think that is an accurate comparison Stag but I see your point. We are the highest ranked side in the NH, Leinster are HEC champions, Munster are Magners champions, Sean O'brien is European player of the year. We comfortably beat an England team tipped to reach the final in our last international.

None of this will count for much once the tournement starts but we are heading into the tournament with some form behind us so I don't see why we should be throwing in the towel before the tournement starts as Biltong is suggesting.

Like I say I'm not looking past the group games but I don't think we need to be praying for miracles here for us to have a decent tournament, we just need to go out an play our best rugby.

Redstag, yes my friend, anything is possible, but let us be realistic.

I know the springboks can win against the All Blacks, after all we are the most successful team against them. I am however realistic enough to know that with the current break down laws we have almost no chance of beating them. When I combine our coaching dilemma, our injured and out of form players to the mix, there is zero chance.

If you want me to say in theory there is a possibility that Ireland will get the route you suggest, then the realism still needs to come into play and Ireland has to beat the Aussies in the final of a world cup ( that is to say if New Zealand doesn't beat them in the semi final.)

Of your players who might go to the RWC Brian O'Driscoll, Ronan O'Gar and Paul O'Connel are the only ones who have actually played in a quarter final match.

This against a team who may have a lot of young guys, but mentally the Aussies are built for knock out tournaments.

It is possible, anything is possible, after all this is sport and there are upsets, but wow, the odds of what you are suggesting are phenominal.

red_stag wrote:Biltong, do you not think Ireland CAN in theory beat any team bar New Zealand. I can't see why that is ridiculous. Ireland will have to avoid New Zealand to win the tournament and its certainly not the logical outcome but lets say:

Beat Italy
Beat Russia
Beat USA
Beat Australia narrowly, maybe a dodgey referee call.
Beat Wales
Beat England
Play Australia again in the Final and buoyed by their win they manage to beat them.

Victory. Stranger things have happened.

I guess anything can happen, but the issue is what is the probability of it happening? You're talking about Ireland winning 7 back to back tests. Possible? Yes. Samoa might win it too as it is possible. But form and track record would indicate otherwise. Ireland had an awful 6N except one game. Good on paper, poor on execution. Their record away from Ireland is not good. They do not have the consistency.

Roddersm, I am not suggesting you throw in the towel. What will be the point of going into a world cup with that attitude, what I am trying to say is we can hope our teams exceed our expectations.

But hope has a sense of idealism about it.

Where expectation is a calculated and often more realistic.

Biltong I agree. That is why I am only concerned with beating Italy, Russia, the USA and Australia. After that we will see what comes.

But if you are asking me if there is any team, that we might play should we escape the group stages, that I don't genuinely believe we can beat then the answer is Yes; New Zealand.

Other than that I feel we have a decent chance against everyone else we may face. That is all I am saying.

Do I think we will win the WC? No.

Do I think it is likely? No.

Do I think it is possible? Yes, very much so.

Biltong - to me we have same chance of beating Australia/South Africa that the Boks have against the Kiwis. Slim but possible.

Upsets happen all the time. The All Blacks have been the greatest international team since I started watching rugby in the late 1990s/early 2000s but they've spurned various chances.

Argentina, England, France and South Africa were the semi finalists in the last World Cup which was a big shock. Only 1 SANZAR team in the semi final. You'd have laughed if we said that before the tournament.

To be honest, South Africa have the achilles heel of an idiot coach. That would give me confidence if we played them. Also, I think they lack real quality at outhalf. They are tough but beatable.

I think we should be targeting a win against Australia, if not we should be targeting a win in our likely encounter with South Africa.

The vast, vast majority of fans on here don't have unrealistic expectations for Ireland but neither do we fear the Boks or Wallabies. We can beat both of them- thats different from thinking we will beat them. In both of those games we would start as underdogs. But it's an achievable goal for us.

Rob B wrote:Ireland had an awful 6N except one game.

True but no one had a particularly impressive 6N this year. As poor as we were lets not forget that we were a controversial try and a pass away from a 2nd GS in two seasons. Not that this will matter too much come the WC but I think you are overplaying Irelands "poor form" a tad here.

Form goes out the window at a world cup anyway.

What does worry me is that it was Samoa and not us who showed that Australia are vulnerable. The element of suprised is gone.

Notch wrote:
I think we should be targeting a win against Australia, if not we should be targeting a win in our likely encounter with South Africa.

Notch I think we are more than capable of beating one of these sides. In fact I will be seriously disappointed, but not surprised, if we don't.

nottins_jones wrote:lets face it you're not a world cup team.

What does that mean? That if a country isn't particularly successful in the first few World Cups it can never be successful?

luckless_pedestrian wrote:

nottins_jones wrote:lets face it you're not a world cup team.

What does that mean?

It doesn't mean anything Luckless. It's just a cliche used by people when they're jealous of another teams potential to succeed and insecure about their own.

red_stag wrote:Form goes out the window at a world cup anyway.

I can see that's what you will be hoping. 2007 was an aberration because of the ridiculous breakdown rules. There is always one or 2 upsets in a RWC. But not a lot more than that.

Is 'not a world cup team' the rugby equivalent of 'new money'?

Rob its not what I'm "hoping". I truly believe that club form or things that happened back in February have that big an impact. I fully accept that the likely outcome is an Irish quarter final exit after two plucky defeats against Australia and South Africa.

However I still expect us to be able to win both despite being under dogs.

You yourself admit there are always one or two upsets. Why could this not be one of those upsets. I don't see Ireland winning World Cup. We'd need massive luck. However I can see us reaching the final.

Rob B wrote:There is always one or 2 upsets in a RWC. But not a lot more than that.

2007:

Argentina beating France * 2
France Beating NZ
England beating Australia
England beating France
Argentina beating Ireland
Fiji beating Wales

Thats 7 upsets in the last WC alone.

Ireland will beat SA in the quarters. SA are all over the place at the moment. If we can beat them in the same year they were crowned world champions we can beat them now when they are struggling.

leinsterbaby wrote:Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.

I think you might be a tad over confident there......

leinsterbaby wrote:Ireland will beat SA in the quarters. SA are all over the place at the moment. If we can beat them in the same year they were crowned world champions we can beat them now when they are struggling.

If they are really all over the place then who's to say Ireland would meet them in the quarters?

Ireland can win it, but are not likely to (i.e. less than 50% chance). I think the big stumbling block is their lack of consistency, they often have a few good games but never seem to get a run of the required 7 games. I think the warm up game against England will show a lot about both sides chances. Whoever loses that will have a tough world cup ahead of them, whoever wins should go into the tournament with a skip in their step!

roddersm how is England beating Australia and France an upset?

We beat those two frequently - 2 consecutive world cups too. We have a positive head to head vs both in the world cup.

Just because Ireland are in awe of France doesn't mean England are.

Ireland will only progress in my opinion if they avoid France, New Zealand and South Africa in the knockout stages.

No one will beat NZ though.

Every side has their bogey teams.

Ireland struggle vs France let alone the Tri nations.

England have struggled recently against Ireland and South Africa in particular.

France do not enjoy playing England and Argentina.

Wales have been knocked out of 2 world cups by pacific islands sides.

New Zealand vs France in world cups.

It was a shock England beating France. France were Grandslam Champions at the time. France were hosts and France had just beaten the All Blacks. Ireland are not in awe of Australia or South Africa but it would still be an upset if we beat them.

The only 2 sides Id say we fear are France and NZ.

beshocked wrote:roddersm how is England beating Australia and France an upset?

Beshocked it was an upset at the time and if you had bet on both then you would have been a rich man.

Australia and France were heavy favourites in those two games. Remember France were hosts, 6N champions and 2nd favourites for the tournament where as England had been tanked by SA in the group stages and had an abysmal 6N.

Look, I think to a certain degree we are underestimating Ireland's success in recent years from the perspective of their regional teams in the european competitions.

Although we do see some of the matches live on tv it is often difficult to follow specific teams as we don't see every match.

Due to the fact that we are focused more on the super rugby tournament, the Tri Nations etc. we have less knowledge of the NH competitions and I would not be able to tell you who are the form players in any of the NH countries.

I therefor do use statistical information as a guideline often when looking at the NH teams, and also historical records.

But the flipside of the coin is I suspect the guys in the NH do much the same.

At the end of the day we all support our teams passionately and hope for the best.

I think this world cup will be very interesting, very competitive for a number of reasons, and as many of you say Ireland is ranked 4th in the world, but let's not pay too much attention to those. A while ago I showed the recent form of all the teams, and from that perspective only NZ stands out.

roddersm wrote:

luckless_pedestrian wrote:

nottins_jones wrote:lets face it you're not a world cup team.

What does that mean?

It doesn't mean anything Luckless. It's just a cliche used by people when they're jealous of another teams potential to succeed and insecure about their own.

That's an insecure response rodders if ever I saw one... I'm not jealous of any teams potential to succeed and you're insecure to believe that. As for Ireland, didn't they fulfil the limit of their potential in 2009?

Luckless, I meant Ireland aren't a world cup team based on their history in world cups, it's not hard to work out. Won't always be the case for them, but will be at this years tournemant.

greybeard wrote:

leinsterbaby wrote:Ireland will beat SA in the quarters. SA are all over the place at the moment. If we can beat them in the same year they were crowned world champions we can beat them now when they are struggling.

If they are really all over the place then who's to say Ireland would meet them in the quarters?

Nobody can say anything with absolute certainty. That's just my prediction.

I beg your pardon, nottins_jones, but I don't know you and you don't know me. If you don't want to be called up for making nonsensical statements, don't make them.