Who are your favourites for the Semi Finals of the RWC at the moment...?

by maestegmafia Wed 03 Aug 2011, 10:48 am

First topic message reminder :

The start of the Tri-Nations and an Ozzie loss to Samoa have added a few interesting permutations into the mix. ABs are still favourites by a country mile on current form.

Some people base their theories on History though and there are a few teams that have made semis and finals more often than others, will it all just be a little bit of history repeating?

The PI teams look stronger than ever, can they do it?

Is there an unexpected Dark Horse out there who could surprise us all...?

Pick Four Teams from the POLL of who you think will be the Semi Finalists.

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:22 pm

Boston Exile wrote:Getting back to the original topic, the last 4 needn't be the best 4, that's the trick of having groups of unequal strengths and pointing teams in different paths. Simply put 2 groups the most likely questions are who will be first and who second (NZ/Fr, Aus/Ire). There are then 2 groups where there is a narrower margin between those likely to qualify and those who want to upset the party hence SA are probable winners but Wales/Samoa and Fiji all harbour aspirations. Similarly would anyone bet a significant amount upon who will qualify and in what order between Eng/Arg/Scotland? There are so many variables as to who is likely to meet whom at the playoffs, but that is the interest. I don't know where the upsets, big or small, will come from but it is likely there will be some and that's what makes a tournament memorable. At that point logical predictions start to unravel.

So choose 4 and you look no further than the top 5 or 6 in the world rankings. I'm just hoping someone outside that category crashes the party and makes this an interesting world cup we'll enjoy real time and on reflection.
Sad to see some of the wumming returning, hope this is just a blip.

Oh yeah I went for NZ, Aus, Scotland and Ireland - just for the fun of it, I'm probably miles out.

+1

And I'm pretty sure that some of the outrageous wummig was only leg-pulling Wink

by Guest Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:23 pm

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:
Artful_Dodger wrote:I think this article could be summed up by England fans taking exception to Irish thinking we can make the semi-finals, sad really.
Dodge, i asked the original question to be fair, and I'm Scots. I was/am genuinely interested in trying to get to the bottom of what seemed to me a disparity in views between Irish and non-Irish posters regarding Ireland's world cup prospects - think we got there about 100 comments ago tho!

Thank you for that, AsLong! I just looked up to the top of this LONG thread and saw that. Why did it suddenly get all about "English fans writing off Ireland". I've not seen that in this article really. Just loads of squabbling Wink

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:24 pm

After 265 votes, NZ narrowly ahead of Aus, Eng neck&neck with SA, France and Ireland competing for 5th/6th - seems not unreasonable to me that the 4 semi-finalists will come from those 6

by Boston Exile Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:25 pm

ok ASBO will take your word for it - I often read things too literally

by beshocked Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:25 pm

artful dodger there is optimism then there is delusion. Of course you can make the semi finals but it would be a surprise as you have never done it before.

Voting yourselves as likely semi finalists is a bit silly as it isn't likely Ireland will be a semi finalist.

Roddersm Ireland aren't a likely semi finalist. South Africa are.

If you asked people who do you think will make the semis - South Africa vs Ireland would your head really say Ireland? Your heart might though.

Do I really need to explain why South Africa have a higher chance of making the semis than Ireland?

by Breadvan Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:25 pm

Artful_Dodger wrote:I think this article could be summed up by England fans taking exception to Irish thinking we can make the semi-finals, sad really.

Harsh, and a pile of vomit

tbh. It's supporters questioning where each others optimism is coming from based on previous results/form etc. It's good ol honest debate cider

by **rodders** Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:26 pm

Artful_Dodger wrote:I think this article could be summed up by All non Irish fans taking exception to Irish thinking we can make the semi-finals, sad really.

Not far off dodger. It's a bit disappointing really that we can't be treated with the same respect as other nations but we'll just have to earn our respect on the pitch, whilst other nations get it as an automatic right.

When fans of the side ranked 4th in the world are accused of arrogance and bravado for aspiring to a semi final spot then you maybe have to accept it's not you who has the problem.

by Guest Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:30 pm

I think this article can be summed up by saying the Irish are a little sensitive if people don't think they are the best thing such sliced bread and say they aren't shoo ins for the semis. It's similar to how a non Irishman is never allowed to write something negative about Brian O'Driscoll.

by Guest Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:32 pm

roddersm wrote:It's a bit disappointing really that we can't be treated with the same respect as other nations but we'll just have to earn our respect on the pitch, whilst other nations get it as an automatic right.

Come on, that sounds a tad whiney!

Most fans respect Ireland, but not if you're going to have an attitude like that.

by beshocked Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:33 pm

roddersm you keep banging on about 4th place too.

You came 3rd in the 6 nations behind two sides. Haven't beaten a tri nation side for over a year etc.

I just can't understand how you Irish can have all this bravado. You go on and on about that game against England and your recent record. It's irrelevant.

You have a worse world cup record than Scotland.

Funnily enough I think Scotland have a better chance than Ireland. They could get to a WC semi without facing a tri nation side if they can top the pool.

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:33 pm

roddersm wrote:
Artful_Dodger wrote:I think this article could be summed up by All non Irish fans taking exception to Irish thinking we can make the semi-finals, sad really.

Not far off dodger. It's a bit disappointing really that we can't be treated with the same respect as other nations but we'll just have to earn our respect on the pitch, whilst other nations get it as an automatic right.

When fans of the side ranked 4th in the world are accused of arrogance and bravado for aspiring to a semi final spot then you maybe have to accept it's not you who has the problem.

rodders, astonishing - I can only hope you've got your tongue firmly in cheek. I've explained why I asked the question and confirmed why i'd been given what I took to be a good answer - there was no disrespect anywhere from myself or Radge furious

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:34 pm

Risca Rev wrote:I think this article can be summed up by saying the Irish are a little sensitive if people don't think they are the best thing such sliced bread and say they aren't shoo ins for the semis. It's similar to how a non Irishman is never allowed to write something negative about Brian O'Driscoll.

Or....... it could be summed up by England fans totally disregarding the fact that despite a blip in 2007, the England rugby team have, in general, been pants over the last 10 years or so and that it is the refuge of the lowly England supporter to cling to past victories when approx zero of their current team is involved this time around.

by Breadvan Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:35 pm

roddersm wrote:
Artful_Dodger wrote:I think this article could be summed up by All non Irish fans taking exception to Irish thinking we can make the semi-finals, sad really.

Not far off dodger. It's a bit disappointing really that we can't be treated with the same respect as other nations but we'll just have to earn our respect on the pitch, whilst other nations get it as an automatic right.

When fans of the side ranked 4th in the world are accused of arrogance and bravado for aspiring to a semi final spot then you maybe have to accept it's not you who has the problem.

Oh please. Conspiracy theorists of the world unite! Ireland do aspire a semi final spot but to question why people don't agree? Arrogance and bravado Erm

by **rodders** Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:35 pm

beshocked wrote:Roddersm Ireland aren't a likely semi finalist. South Africa are.

If you asked people who do you think will make the semis - South Africa vs Ireland would your head really say Ireland? Your heart might though.

Do I really need to explain why South Africa have a higher chance of making the semis than Ireland?

If you like. Perhaps you can start by taking me through South Africa's recent form and their recent away record against Ireland.

Then perhaps you can go through the springbok side and analyse their relative strengths and weaknesses vs ours.

Then when your done you could give a wee summary of why you think the suggestion that Ireland could beat them is so ludicrious?

Might I suggest beshocked that you English rate South Africa so highly because you can't beat them.... Whistle

by greenandpleasantland Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:36 pm

Having made my choices though i am very nervous about England.....i can see us playing naively against Scotland and losing the game (especially if the Scots back-row fires) and having to play NZ in the quarters. If that happens we won't mug them like we did Australia four years ago.

by Thomond Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:36 pm

BTW,I voted for England,Australia,New Zealand and South Africa.

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:36 pm

roddersm wrote:
beshocked wrote:Roddersm Ireland aren't a likely semi finalist. South Africa are.

If you asked people who do you think will make the semis - South Africa vs Ireland would your head really say Ireland? Your heart might though.

Do I really need to explain why South Africa have a higher chance of making the semis than Ireland?

If you like. Perhaps you can start by taking me through South Africa's recent form and their recent away record against Ireland.

Then perhaps you can go through the springbok side and analyse their relative strengths and weaknesses vs ours.

Then when your done you could give a wee summary of why you think the suggestion that Ireland could beat them is so ludicrious?

Might I suggest beshocked that you English rate South Africa so highly because you can't beat them....

I'd say the English fans are "in awe" of the South Africans....

by Guest Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:38 pm

Boyne wrote:
Risca Rev wrote:I think this article can be summed up by saying the Irish are a little sensitive if people don't think they are the best thing such sliced bread and say they aren't shoo ins for the semis. It's similar to how a non Irishman is never allowed to write something negative about Brian O'Driscoll.

Or....... it could be summed up by England fans totally disregarding the fact that despite a blip in 2007, the England rugby team have, in general, been pants over the last 10 years or so and that it is the refuge of the lowly England supporter to cling to past victories when approx zero of their current team is involved this time around.

Straight from the greyghost school of loathing the English. Oh well, at least he's got a mate in you, Boyne.

by **rodders** Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:39 pm

Boyne wrote:
I'd say the English fans are "in awe" of the South Africans....

I'm glad the irony of that comment wasn't lost on you Boyne Wink

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:40 pm

SafeAsMilk wrote:
Boyne wrote:
Risca Rev wrote:I think this article can be summed up by saying the Irish are a little sensitive if people don't think they are the best thing such sliced bread and say they aren't shoo ins for the semis. It's similar to how a non Irishman is never allowed to write something negative about Brian O'Driscoll.

Or....... it could be summed up by England fans totally disregarding the fact that despite a blip in 2007, the England rugby team have, in general, been pants over the last 10 years or so and that it is the refuge of the lowly England supporter to cling to past victories when approx zero of their current team is involved this time around.

Straight from the greyghost school of loathing the English. Oh well, at least he's got a mate in you, Boyne.

Get over yourselves!!!!! Really!!!! I just dont think you have a very good rugby team, thats all!!!

by Guest Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:42 pm

Boyne wrote:
SafeAsMilk wrote:
Boyne wrote:
Risca Rev wrote:I think this article can be summed up by saying the Irish are a little sensitive if people don't think they are the best thing such sliced bread and say they aren't shoo ins for the semis. It's similar to how a non Irishman is never allowed to write something negative about Brian O'Driscoll.

Or....... it could be summed up by England fans totally disregarding the fact that despite a blip in 2007, the England rugby team have, in general, been pants over the last 10 years or so and that it is the refuge of the lowly England supporter to cling to past victories when approx zero of their current team is involved this time around.

Straight from the greyghost school of loathing the English. Oh well, at least he's got a mate in you, Boyne.

Get over yourselves!!!!! Really!!!! I just dont think you have a very good rugby team, thats all!!!

Any reason why you have to insult English fans when you comment on us 'not being a good team'? Why all the insults?

by TheGreyGhost Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:43 pm

What? Whose school of loathing the English? I love the English. They're my second favourite team after Scotland, Wales, Australia, South Africa, Ireland and France, New Zealand obviously and Argentina.

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:43 pm

What insult? A fair few of ye looked rather sad leaving Landsdown last time out. 1st time I'd seen grown men cry.

If thats not lowly I dont know what is!!!

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:44 pm

TheGreyGhost wrote:What? Whose school of loathing the English? I love the English. They're my second favourite team after Scotland, Wales, Australia, South Africa, Ireland and France, New Zealand obviously and Argentina.

GG, haven't you missed out Italy, Georgia, Romania, portugal, USA, Canada, Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, etc.?! Laugh

by Breadvan Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:44 pm

Boyne wrote:
Risca Rev wrote:I think this article can be summed up by saying the Irish are a little sensitive if people don't think they are the best thing such sliced bread and say they aren't shoo ins for the semis. It's similar to how a non Irishman is never allowed to write something negative about Brian O'Driscoll.

Or....... it could be summed up by England fans totally disregarding the fact that despite a blip in 2007, the England rugby team have, in general, been pants over the last 10 years or so and that it is the refuge of the lowly England supporter to cling to past victories when approx zero of their current team is involved this time around.

Forgive us a little gnats chuff of optimism for for the first time in years, looking like a bit of a decent side and winning the 6N. Yes England are tomkite against Ireland. Whats new! Risca's post proves anyone dare question or debate Irelands chances get boxing

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:44 pm

GG you forgot the Islanders..... oh and Romania...

by beshocked Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:44 pm

Boyne what has England supposedly being pants having to do anything with Ireland?

If England have been so pants in the last decade how did they become no 1 in the world with numerous victories against the tri nations. 1 WC win and 1 final. We aren't as good as the tri nations of course not. Are we below Ireland? No.

South Africa are better than Ireland. How does it make us in awe of them? We have a poor record against both. So what?

Boyne I think we are in agreement. I think Ireland are overhyped and overrated by their fans. Remind me a bit of the England football side.

by TheGreyGhost Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:44 pm

That was taken as read wasn't it?

by beshocked Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:46 pm

So much hype and expectation from the Irish camp before the RWC. Will they fall flat on their faces I wonder?

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:46 pm

If England have been so pants in the last decade how did they become no 1 in the world with numerous victories against the tri nations. 1 WC win and 1 final. We aren't as good as the tri nations of course not. Are we below Ireland? No.

Again. Clinging to events of YEARS ago. Oh and check the rankings mate.

4 is above 5. Im pretty sure thats covered in GCSE's...

by **rodders** Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:47 pm

beshocked wrote:
You have a worse world cup record than Scotland.

Perhaps whilst you are providing and analyses of the relative strengths and weakness of the springboks vs ours (because you are very knowledgable about this of course),
you could also provide some statistics which demonstrates how accurate previous World cup performance is as an indicator of future performance, as this seems to be something that you bring up a lot.

by Thomond Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:48 pm

I don' t think anyone here has overhyped Ireland. It seems to be very hypothetical,like "if we beat Australia we could get to the semi" nobody is saying we are definetly going to beat Australia or SA. Stag was winding people up with his comments.

by Jenifer McLadyboy Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:48 pm

beshocked wrote:

Ireland are a good side but I can't see them beating Australia or South Africa.

Writing off South Africa is just silly.

I would agree that we would be unlikely to beat either. But it is far from impossible. We just need no injuries, us to click like never before, and the opposition not to be at 100%. Unlikely but possible.

by Guest Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:49 pm

Boyne wrote:What insult? A fair few of ye looked rather sad leaving Landsdown last time out. 1st time I'd seen grown men cry.

If thats not lowly I dont know what is!!!

Lansdowne no? I still find it strange that Irish people can't spell that. Perhaps that's why they changed the name to the Aviva, so you all have a better chance.

I just find it a little disrespectful to the Italians that the Irish aren't taking them as serious threats.

by prop_lyd Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:49 pm

Boyne wrote:
If England have been so pants in the last decade how did they become no 1 in the world with numerous victories against the tri nations. 1 WC win and 1 final. We aren't as good as the tri nations of course not. Are we below Ireland? No.

Again. Clinging to events of YEARS ago. Oh and check the rankings mate.

4 is above 5. Im pretty sure thats covered in GCSE's...

Depends where you went to school.......obviously these boys who can't understand 1 as top and 5 as lower than 4 need to watch more of the count on sesame street.

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:49 pm

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:
beshocked wrote:

Ireland are a good side but I can't see them beating Australia or South Africa.

Writing off South Africa is just silly.
I would agree that we would be unlikely to beat either. But it is far from impossible. We just need no injuries, us to click like never before, and the opposition not to be at 100%. Unlikely but possible.

Not many could see the wheels coming off the chariot in Dublin a few months back. Nike certianly didnt!!!

' Happened though...

by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:50 pm

Boyne wrote:
If England have been so pants in the last decade how did they become no 1 in the world with numerous victories against the tri nations. 1 WC win and 1 final. We aren't as good as the tri nations of course not. Are we below Ireland? No.

Again. Clinging to events of YEARS ago. Oh and check the rankings mate.

4 is above 5. Im pretty sure thats covered in GCSE's...

It is Boyne. I don't think it's enough of an advantage to overcome the disadvantage the RWC draw gives Ireland however. No-one's saying Ireland won't make the semi-finals - people are saying it's more likely that they won't than that they will.

by beshocked Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:52 pm

1st is above 3rd. What's your point?

1 world cup is above zero.

6 wins against NZ is above zero.

12 wins vs 4 wins against South Africa

16 wins vs 8 wins against Australia.

Should really mention 70 vs 46 too.

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:52 pm

roddersm wrote:
beshocked wrote:
You have a worse world cup record than Scotland.

Perhaps whilst you are providing and analyses of the relative strengths and weakness of the springboks vs ours (because you are very knowledgable about this of course),
you could also provide some statistics which demonstrates how accurate previous World cup performance is as an indicator of future performance, as this seems to be something that you bring up a lot.

Insufficient sample size, rodders - Statistics 101 !!!! Wink

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:54 pm

Kiwireddevil wrote:
Boyne wrote:
If England have been so pants in the last decade how did they become no 1 in the world with numerous victories against the tri nations. 1 WC win and 1 final. We aren't as good as the tri nations of course not. Are we below Ireland? No.

Again. Clinging to events of YEARS ago. Oh and check the rankings mate.

4 is above 5. Im pretty sure thats covered in GCSE's...

It is Boyne. I don't think it's enough of an advantage to overcome the disadvantage the RWC draw gives Ireland however. No-one's saying Ireland won't make the semi-finals - people are saying it's more likely that they won't than that they will.

Yes Kiwi, but the reasoning is what I have a problem with.

If we followed beshocked theory, Uruguay would be the soccerball world champions every time...

You see, "some" like to point to victories donkeys years ago as an indicator, because they have nothing else to cling onto.

THe fact is, despite Englands easy draw, I can see the French beating them, because they have a better rugby team,

"Some" folk just dont want to face facts.

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:55 pm

beshocked wrote:1st is above 3rd. What's your point?

1 world cup is above zero.

6 wins against NZ is above zero.

12 wins vs 4 wins against South Africa

16 wins vs 8 wins against Australia.

Should really mention 70 vs 46 too.

HAHAHHAHAHA. And I suppose you are going to claim the battle of Waterloo as the reason you will beat France in the quarters??

Wink

by red_stag Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:56 pm

beshocked wrote:red stag they have always got to the quarter finals at least. They are the no 1 team in the world and have won the world cup before. They also have home advantage. Their WC pedigree is far above that of Ireland's.

And I expect them to win it. I expect Ireland to lose in semi finals.

by TheGreyGhost Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:56 pm

Can I just point out that this poll is broken?

There are four semi-finalists, unless we're breaking with tradition so a poll summing to 100% doesn't really make any sense.

For instance, the poll seems to suggest that 77% of people currently don't think NZ will reach the semi-finals, even though the majority of people who have voted have indicated they think they will.

This inference based on the 9% of people who think Ireland will reach the semi-finals seems to imply that the vast majority of us think they won't, as kiwireddevil has just erroneously reiterated, whereas the poll actually suggests something different.

by **rodders** Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:57 pm

Risca Rev wrote:I just find it a little disrespectful to the Italians that the Irish aren't taking them as serious threats.

It's interesting then that your feathers weren't too ruffled about the English fans not being unduly worried about Scotland and Argentina? Or maybe you just didn't see fit to mention it?

It seem we Irish have really got above our station here by feeling we might be capable of beating Italy and Australia/SA.

by BlueNote Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:57 pm

In terms of who is going to get to the semis, it is maybe more open than previous competitions (although I can't see past NZ for the winners). A lot of teams have shown something in the last few years but seem to be pretty inconsistent - that goes for all of Aus, SA, England, France, Ireland, Argentina, and even Wales. I would have thought most likely the TriNations teams will be there, but at least Aus and SA are capable of being beaten by France, England, Ireland. And France seem to have a knack of beating NZ.

Even Wales has the playing talent to cause an upset or two (but I don't think we're in any shape to do it).

by Boyne Wed 03 Aug 2011, 4:58 pm

It would be gas if both Ireland and England got knocked out in the pool stages after this.....

by beshocked Wed 03 Aug 2011, 5:00 pm

Boyne France haven't beaten us in 4 of the last 5 encounters. 2 of those wins were in Paris too.

By your logic France are worse than us anyway as they are 6th in the rankings. We are 5th.

Ireland could make the semis but South Africa,France,England,Australia and New Zealand are more likely to make it.

Boyne I have given my reasons but you won't listen to reason.

by **rodders** Wed 03 Aug 2011, 5:01 pm

Boyne wrote:
HAHAHHAHAHA. And I suppose you are going to claim the battle of Waterloo as the reason you will beat France in the quarters??

Don't be stupid boyne! ....although if you throw the battle of Agincourt in there too you'll see a pattern emerging..... Wink

by red_stag Wed 03 Aug 2011, 5:04 pm

OK all its nearly time for me to finish work so I'll come clean and reveal my true thoughts on the matter:

England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand is the logical pick for the semi finals IMO.

I do stand by my picks of France, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand however.

And I agree that whether from genuine concern or mock outrage a few Irish fans have been a bit over the top in their disbelief that we aren't higher rated. Ireland in the semis isn't the logical choice - the draw we have, our form in last 18 months and our perrenial inability to turn provincial success international accolades.

I do still back us to go out in the semi finals though.

Its been great guys. Hope nobody is too shaken after it all

by beshocked Wed 03 Aug 2011, 5:05 pm

Well said red stag. Absolutely agree.

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