Who are your favourites for the Semi Finals of the RWC at the moment...?

First topic message reminder :

The start of the Tri-Nations and an Ozzie loss to Samoa have added a few interesting permutations into the mix. ABs are still favourites by a country mile on current form.

Some people base their theories on History though and there are a few teams that have made semis and finals more often than others, will it all just be a little bit of history repeating?

The PI teams look stronger than ever, can they do it?

Is there an unexpected Dark Horse out there who could surprise us all...?

Pick Four Teams from the POLL of who you think will be the Semi Finalists.

Maybe the real debate is why stag went for France ahead of England....

biltongbek wrote:

Kiwireddevil wrote:NZ (after beating Sco/Arg in the Qtr)
Aus (after beating Wales/Samoa in tht Qtr)
SA (will be favourites to beat Ireland in the Qtr)
Eng/France (tough call in the Qtr)

I concur, Sir.

Any posts disagreeing with that, delete them.

Yes, thats the way I went too. France along with the SH teams. Not a traitor, just a realist.

France have a much better record in NZ than England, so it makes sense.

(If I can say that without fear of being accused of racism, anti-english bile or making things up)

Things went off the point a bit,but I think most Irish people realise that if we are to make the semis it is going to be very difficult and will require some sterling perfromances from our players which haven't happened frequently in the last 18 months.

TheGreyGhost wrote:France have a much better record in NZ than England, so it makes sense.

(If I can say that without fear of being accused of racism, anti-english bile or making things up)

...or broken record, GG, you've even earned your own emoticon now:

TGG England have a much better record than France in general, so it makes sense.

Realists would back England above France.

England have beaten France in Australia. Are New Zealand and Australia really that different?

beshocked wrote:1st is above 3rd. What's your point?

1 world cup is above zero.

6 wins against NZ is above zero.

12 wins vs 4 wins against South Africa

16 wins vs 8 wins against Australia.

Should really mention 70 vs 46 too.

Sound of "land of hope and glory" in the background.

We are harking back to the great days of the British Empire here. When they were better than everyone at everything. Most brits are more realistic these days, and they have come through that phase to become a mature and understanding people. Just as we have......eh....stopped wanting to kill them.

Beshocked,here's your answer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs_rXxi0zhM

[quote="roddersm"]

Risca Rev wrote:It's interesting then that your feathers weren't too ruffled about the English fans not being unduly worried about Scotland and Argentina? Or maybe you just didn't see fit to mention it?

It seem we Irish have really got above our station here by feeling we might be capable of beating Italy and Australia/SA.

I don't see many English people talking themselves up really, though at least they'd have some justification doing so based on how they generally do in World Cups. Plenty of Irish (you know, the ones who keep banging the "oh, we are so humble" drums) are doing it though. Talking of the semi finals based on their one good game in the 6 Nations. Have you won many games against the Tri Nations before away from Lansdowne Road?

The other difference here is that England don't have to beat a Tri Nations team in the group stage and probably won't have to beat one in the quarters.

Perhaps a final word on the topic from big Dinny Leamy?:

"We're better off moving on from 2007 because it was so disappointing," said Leamy.

"There was a such a big build-up and it didn't help that we openly stated we want to reach the semis and final. When that didn't happen it was used as a stick to beat us with.

"This time it's all about getting out of our pool. We can start to dream from there."

Rev,name one person who has said with absolute certainty that Ireland will make the semis? We said it's possible if results go our way and we perform. A lot of hypotheticals in there,so I don't see how that's arrogant.

Rev the reason I backed Ireland for a semi despite it not being logical is that I think we have one good performance in us and I think we will see it against either SA or Aus.

The reason I picked France is that I think Lievremont isn't as dopey as we think. We've known his world cup squad for months. They have some good preparation and realisitcally it comes down to a one off game against England. I'm backing them to win it.

Thomond wrote:Rev,name one person who has said with absolute certainty that Ireland will make the semis? We said it's possible if results go our way and we perform. A lot of hypotheticals in there,so I don't see how that's arrogant.

Thom, the same set of hypotheticals could be applied to almost any time (just with decreasing credibility!)?

As,the point is we're being labelled as arrogant and overhyping our team but we're stating a list of possibilities.

Risca Rev wrote:I think this article can be summed up by saying the Irish are a little sensitive if people don't think they are the best thing such sliced bread and say they aren't shoo ins for the semis. It's similar to how a non Irishman is never allowed to write something negative about Brian O'Driscoll.

Are you dissin De BOD, Rev? He who is infallable and is untouchable in the History of World Rugby? Outside. Now! Bloody dillusioned Welshies and their overrated midget - Shane. Who was only given World Player of the Year as a politicial vote. Everyone knows that.

Gibson wrote:Shane. Who was only given World Player of the Year as a politicial vote. Everyone knows that.

True that Gibson

I don't think I have said that Irish fans are saying with absolute certainty they'll make the semis. I find it hard to understand though, that I haven't seen one Irish fan thinking that they could possibly lose to Italy. That's quite disrespectful. I don't think that Ireland will beat either Australia or South Africa away from Lansdowne as it goes, but all I see a fair bit on here is Ireland making the semis talk and only mentioning that they could beat Australia in the group. Nobody seems to consider that you guys could lose to the Italians (it's unlikely, but just as probable as Ireland beating Aus/SA away from Lansdowne).

Jeebus, what a wum fest!

Hound, we've had a fun day!!

It's been lovely. I blame Stag, the rascal. I am going to petition for his immediate ban. He hates the Dragons too, so it'll be no loss in my book

Ah feck it Rev, dont agree with me, I was trying to get a rise from others pal. Bhu88er!

Have to agree. The Italians, flying under the radar, will be no easy team to get by. Barely beat them in the 6-N and they beat France FFS. I also believe that Scotland & Argentina have the beating of England in a one-off. Really do. Samoa also, have proved they will a dangerous proposition for SA and Wales. Far too many of us, taking our eyes off those very possible upsets and leaping ahead to the SF's.

Sure its great craic.

red_stag wrote:Rev the reason I backed Ireland for a semi despite it not being logical is that I think we have one good performance in us and I think we will see it against either SA or Aus.

It's perfectly logical stag as we're the 4th best side in the tournament. Anything less than a SF will be a disappointment. Unfortunately we'll likely have to go through the 2nd or 3rd best side to get there but in a one of game anything can happen and recent meetings with these two sides have been very close so there's reason to be positive.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:

roddersm wrote:Radge no offence but for a Scotsman to be so dismissive of the significance of the Grandslam and Heineken cup is pretty ironic. Maybe when Scotland and it's team starting winning silverware you can start dismissing other people achievements. If you don't like or rate our team and players then fine but there's no need to be patronising, especially considering how little success scotland has had in recent times.

Ok, first things first. I like Ireland as a team and your players. I also rate you very highly as a team. However recently you have been inconsistent, a lot like the French. The team that played England in the 6N for instance is not the same team I watched against Wales for instance, or Italy or Scotland. So by that logic you played 1 good game and 3 poorer games.

Secondly, I would love for Scotland to win a 6N grandslam, probably more so than winning a world cup.

Thirdly winning European championships is a massive acheivement for any team.

I think you have just got me all wrong. I just feel that Ireland as a team have had a poor season by your standards and even you must admit could have done better. It's based on that theory that I can't understand where the confidence is coming from. I mean no offense, just trying to figure out why you guys have such unwavering confidence in your team.

Winning Heineken Cups will do that for you. I mean, the standard of rugby in the Heineken Cup is very good. It bodes very well for us. Once you get into the habit of winning the way Leinster and Munster have, hope starts turning into expectation and belief. Of course, provincial rugby is as important to us, if not more important, as our national side. So Heineken Cups mean the same to us as Six Nations championships. You may disagree or see it differently, but thats how it's seen in Ireland. The criticism the national side has been getting for their under-performances has been fierce. There's a wide spread expectation we should be winning a lot more on the international stage.

Really, the top 6 nations in World Rugby over the past decade (in no particular order) have been New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, England, Ireland, France. I don't think it's unnatural to suggest we should be targeting the semi-finals.

Risca Rev wrote: don't think I have said that Irish fans are saying with absolute certainty they'll make the semis. I find it hard to understand.

Of course we could lose. We just have faith in our team to get past that hurdle. I don't think I've seen anyone writing off Italy to be fair.

I honestly don't think anyone has said there is anything "unnatural" or "arrogant" about Irish fans targeting the semis. Whether other fans (or Irish fans) think Ireland will actually get there is another matter.

Where did this perception of "disrespect" come from?

In order of most likely to reach a semi

1. New Zealand
2. Australia
3. South Africa
4. England
5. France*
6. Ireland*
7. Argentina*
8. Wales*
9. Samoa*
10. Scotland*

* Likely to meet a team ranked above them in the quarter final.

Interesting to see that there are 43 votes for England and so few English posters commenting on this thread.

I guess that means a great deal of Non English supporting posters believe England will reach the semi finals...?

Most of us do.

Despite being second seeds England have gotten a draw in which they are the highest ranked team in the group and if they top it they're set to meet a team they normally beat (France) in the quarters and even another team they have a good record against (Australia) in the semi's. It was a good draw for them. The three teams they'd struggle most against are New Zealnd, South Africa and Ireland. If they top their group they probably won't meet any of them until the final. Still, it's not an easy group , but they did get a lucky draw. They have a realistic shot at making the final.

I voted England, New Zealand, Australia and Ireland.

The big upsets I'm predicting are England to beat France and Ireland to beat South Africa in the quarters. And yes, those are called upsets because they are against the odds. But sure- you've got to stick your neck out at some point don't you?

Believe

Anyway, England have a good draw. Finish second in their group and they'll most likely be sent packing by the All Blacks, yes, but I can see them beating Argentina, Scotland and France to reach the semis.

Will be interesting when they get there, once momentum starts going your way in a Cup competition it can take a seemingly very average side a long way. It's not impossible that England could win this thing.

Notch wrote:The big upsets I'm predicting are England to beat France and Ireland to beat South Africa in the quarters. And yes, those are called upsets because they are against the odds.

England beating France wouldn't be an upset, and certainly not a big one. I'm not sure Ireland beating SA would be a big upset either as things stand.

What do you think the odds would be on these?

It'll be the big four - sanzar and le froggies. Wales will get further than the other four 6N countries.

Yeah, totally agree. Cymru have a fair bit of travelling to do all right. From Spala to Waikato.

No Gibbo, what I meant is that they will loose by a smaller margin in their quarter final than England or Ireland (Italy and Scotland won't get out of their respective groups) and with "Honour. For us. Their fans."

SafeAsMilk wrote:

Notch wrote:The big upsets I'm predicting are England to beat France and Ireland to beat South Africa in the quarters. And yes, those are called upsets because they are against the odds.

England beating France wouldn't be an upset, and certainly not a big one. I'm not sure Ireland beating SA would be a big upset either as things stand.

What do you think the odds would be on these?

I'd say you get decent odds. France hate playing against England. A better team than England, with better players, and yet they suffer mentally every time they play them. England might even be favourites should they meet. Marc Lievremont should try and convince them it's Ireland in an away kit and they will lay the pain on you

Ireland against South Africa, well- they'll be the favourites. But any side with Pieter De Villiers as coach is beatable.

every time they play

Overstatement of the year, or what!

Glas a du wrote:It'll be the big four - sanzar and le froggies. Wales will get further than the other four 6N countries.

When and how did France become part of the "big four" ?

Glas a du wrote:It'll be the big four - sanzar and le froggies. Wales will get further than the other four 6N countries.

Not sure Wales will get further than Ireland or England, especially if we loose to SA or struggle with the Fijians or Samoans.


But I agree with you that the most likely are the French or Sanzar nations. The French had a weird season this year, played appallingly in most games, and rarely showed their best, coach spat the dummy at the players, some were told they'd never play for France again, then suddenly they look far more like themselves at their best in Paris in the last match. Ruining our day...!

They have been the best NH team of the last two world cup cycles, they have masses of depth and some fantastic players and at their best won a Grandslam at a canter and beat the AB's in NZ.

But technically, currently its Ireland who are in the Big Four...!

I think there's really only a 'Big Three' if we're being honest guys!

Glas a du wrote:No Gibbo, what I meant is that they will loose by a smaller margin in their quarter final than England or Ireland (Italy and Scotland won't get out of their respective groups) and with "Honour. For us. Their fans."

Fair enuf bud. If you mean lose, then that is a fairly realistic statement. You should put some shekels on that.

Yes, It will be France, and the SH teams in the SF's. Even if England did get a free-pass - as per.

Gibson, aren't you a bit late for the Irish tag-team wummathon? Unless, of course, you're serious. In which case

Having said that you could be right anywho.

It's amusing to find people astonished that Irish fans would be hyping their team's chances to reach a semi-final in a thread entitled "Who are your favourites for the RWC semi-final?"

Was everyone meant to automatically type SA, NZ, Aus, Eng?

Clearly the form book would argue for these four, and notwithstanding England's much easier ride, they also have the most experience and success of NH teams in reaching the sharp end of RWCs.

There doesn't appear to be many Welsh fans in this thread who believe Wales could top their group by beating SA, Samoa and Fiji. Assuming they come second, how do they rate their chances against Australia or Ireland in a one-off match for the semis?

Most people, including English fans, assume England will beat Argentina and Scotland to make it into the quarters and then most likely meet and beat France to the semis.

The Australia v Ireland match-up is the one match that Aussie fans worry about despite their outward confidence of reaching the semis/final. Some of their previous RWC matches ('91 and '03) have been close affairs. And their test matches have all been close affairs since the last RWC.

This is the first time that both teams will have played each other on neutral territory. Eden Park is not a happy hunting ground for the Wallabies either - and it's likely Ireland will grab the home NZ support on the day (if there's any room for them.)

Australia will no doubt be favourites, but I figure Ireland fans are perfectly reasonable to think their team could knock them over.

Equally, as others have pointed out, Italy could provide a shock and defeat Ireland in the last pool match.

Out of curiosity, if Ireland did beat Australia in their second pool match, how much would non-Irish fans rate Ireland's chances of making the semis or even the final?

Lastly, leaving aside the possible Ireland upset, there is the delicious prospect that France could beat ABs in the pool stages and give all of New Zealand a touch of the national vapours for a week or two.

Equally, Eng, Scot and Arg might all take wins off each other and the group would be decided on bonus points.

All of which would make the quarters, never mind the semis, interesting.

Pot Hale wrote:
There doesn't appear to be many Welsh fans in this thread who believe Wales could top their group by beating SA, Samoa and Fiji. Assuming they come second, how do they rate their chances against Australia or Ireland in a one-off match for the semis?

I think I speak for many Welsh fans when I say we will just have to weight and see. Lets see what happens during the warm ups. Wales are currently a bit like France to us, and I don't think we have a clue which team will turn up...!

That said, we could win every game in our group, and if that doesn't kill the team and the lads can also reasonably beat either Australia or Ireland should they meet them and make the Semis.

But just describing that achievement is knackering to think of. Though, beating SA, I presume our kiwi friends will be backing us against the Bok, and easy wins in the remaining pool games, we may well have a good run.

SafeAsMilk wrote:Gibson, aren't you a bit late for the Irish tag-team wummathon? Unless, of course, you're serious. In which case

Having said that you could be right anywho.

Milk,

Nah, I hand-reared the kids who started it. Taught them all I know. Which is phhookall. But they wear it well. Pint sir?

Pot Hale wrote:Lastly, leaving aside the possible Ireland upset, there is the delicious prospect that France could beat ABs in the pool stages and give all of New Zealand a touch of the national vapours for a week or two.

Equally, Eng, Scot and Arg might all take wins off each other and the group would be decided on bonus points.

All of which would make the quarters, never mind the semis, interesting.

Oh man, how much would I love that... Something which has not even been discussed. So possible.

My picks were the the 3-Nations teams and France.

Fair enuf bud. If you mean lose, then that is a fairly realistic statement.

Gotcha.

I think I speak for many Welsh fans when I say we will just have to weight and see.

It's a good game this isn't it Maestegmaffia. You are playing it, aren't you?

Glas a du wrote:

I think I speak for many Welsh fans when I say we will just have to weight and see.

It's a good game this isn't it Maestegmaffia. You are playing it, aren't you?

sorry not with you???

Oh Lordy!