Who are your favourites for the Semi Finals of the RWC at the moment...?

First topic message reminder :

The start of the Tri-Nations and an Ozzie loss to Samoa have added a few interesting permutations into the mix. ABs are still favourites by a country mile on current form.

Some people base their theories on History though and there are a few teams that have made semis and finals more often than others, will it all just be a little bit of history repeating?

The PI teams look stronger than ever, can they do it?

Is there an unexpected Dark Horse out there who could surprise us all...?

Pick Four Teams from the POLL of who you think will be the Semi Finalists.

roddersm wrote:

red_stag wrote:
We have an amazing 6 Nations record second only to an amazing French team spurred on by a passion for the game and who embrace not just French culture but the players play for the pride of Cataluyna and Basque regions. A very proud people - being 2nd to them is no shame.

Amazing is a bit over the top but lets face it much of the optimism in the English camp comes from winning 4 from 5 in the 6N, something we have done numerous times in the past decade. It's interesting how we were percieved as chokers and underachievers for failing to nail that elusive 5th victory but England are seen as World beaters. I'm not dismissing Englands 6N title but I think there's a bit of double standards as to how both teams are percieved.

It's easy too to dismiss the HEC as insignificant when you're not winning it but lets face it Munster and Leinsters record is exceptional.

The WC is a different animal but the fact that we have been pretty successful at European level for a while now and have fairly recent wins against the two SH teams we are most likely to face en route to the latter stages is a reason to be confident, if not overly so.

rodders, who did? I can't find the post?

roddersm wrote:I just think people are too quick to ignore or belittle the hard earned success that the Irish teams have had in the past decade.

You could say that about any side who has success. English and Welsh fans also get ridiculed for talking about their respective successes.

Success at Club level does not always translate to international level. Edinburgh of 2009 finished 2nd in the Magners League, however in the 2009 6N we were where we belong 5th place with only a win against Italy saving our blushes for another season.

Munster and Leinster are club power houses but that does not neccesarily mean Ireland will perform well. Case and point this years 6N which rightly or wrongly is the NH benchmark. Had Ireland won this years tournament I would fully understand the confidence, however they didn't and to be honest looked distinctly average in all their games save the game against England.

A success for Scotland would be to make it out of the group and give whoever we face in the Semi's a good match. It's only natural Ireland and Irish fans will have greater aspirations mainly because their skill level and track record demands it.

If Ireland can play with the intensity and drive they showed against England I think you can not just make the Semis but win the whole tournament. I can't see Ireland maintaining that level of play for the whole tournament though.

Nottins - in trophies yes. Its a fact we've only won the 6 Nations once recently. I can't and won't try argue that.

BUT we have won over 70% of all our entire history of 6 Nations games. France have one game more than us. England have won quite a bit less.

We have been building to this

roddersm wrote:

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:Sure your teams have won a grand Slam and a few Heineken Cups, but I'm with Asbo on this one. I must be missing something because I can't see you guys in the Semis.......

Radge no offence but for a Scotsman to be so dismissive of the significance of the Grandslam and Heineken cup is pretty ironic. Maybe when Scotland and it's team starting winning silverware you can start dismissing other people achievements. If you don't like or rate our team and players then fine but there's no need to be patronising, especially considering how little success scotland has had in recent times.

I don't see dismissal, just plain, simple acknowledgement of achievement? Can I hae a toke of whatever you are smoking?!

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:I can't see Ireland maintaining that level of play for the whole tournament though.

This I agree with. I don't see us getting beyond semi final if we draw Aus or NZ. But getting to the semi final itself should be no problem.

nottins wrote:What's amazing about it ? You've only won it once, or do you mean you have an amazing record of not winning it and mostly being the bridesmaid ?

Well nottins we've an amazing record compared to England over the past decade despite seemingly having a reputation outside Ireland of lacking consistancy.

It's obvious where the confidence amongst Irish fans is coming from. Ireland were excellent in their last game. And since then Leinster won the HEC in some style, knocking out the top three English teams and the top 3 French teams. Irish teams then finished in the top 3 positions in the Magners League and Munster won the the trophy in an all Irish final. What are people missing? Irish rugby finished last season on a high. It's only natural that the fans now have boosted expectations now. Whether these expectations are realistic is yet to be seen. But it's obvious where they come from.

Unfortunately though, the great end to the season for Irish rugby was preceded by 18 months of dreadful performances and a lot of defeats for the Irish team. And on top of that we have a tough draw. The smart money would be on the Irish going out in the quarters to South Africa. But given the silverware won by the Irish provinces and the top performance against England, we're within our rights to be hopeful of catching Australia or South Africa out in a one off game. I don't think it's delusional or arrogant for Irish fans to be hopeful.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Just out of interest, has anyone except Irish posters voted for Ireland to reach thte semis? Are Irish posters seeing something that the rest of us are simply missing?

I for one voted for Ireland (and france, NZ and australia); if they dont lose key players during the group stage, they could cause problems to SA who let's face it would still be favourites (given the depth of their squad and experience).

roddersm wrote:

nottins wrote:What's amazing about it ? You've only won it once, or do you mean you have an amazing record of not winning it and mostly being the bridesmaid ?

Well nottins we've an amazing record compared to England over the past decade despite seemingly having a reputation outside Ireland of lacking consistancy.

Scotland have a proud record of consistEncy, we're consistently 5th!!! Anything less than consistently first doesn't really count that much in my book, although I'll allow consistently 1st or 2nd cos I'm feeling generous today!!

+ 1 what Feckless said.

red_stag wrote:But getting to the semi final itself should be no problem.

Ireland will probably have to beat either Australia or SA to get to the semi final. I don't see that as no problem.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Anything less than consistently first doesn't really count that much in my book, although I'll allow consistently 1st or 2nd cos I'm feeling generous today!!

Can you point out the side that have been consistantly 1st?

Rugby_Assessor wrote:

red_stag wrote:But getting to the semi final itself should be no problem.

Ireland will probably have to beat either Australia or SA to get to the semi final. I don't see that as no problem.

Every rugby game has some element of risk. Even if we had Georgia or Scotland or Fiji in our path there would be some risk. SA are a good side but very beatable and will have come out of a physically tough pool. Ireland are no longer reliant on taking the Boks on up front where we will probably fare badly. New players bring new skills and we can use the likes of Sexton and co to inflict a result upon the Boks.

Feckless Rogue wrote:It's obvious where the confidence amongst Irish fans is coming from. Ireland were excellent in their last game. And since then Leinster won the HEC in some style, knocking out the top three English teams and the top 3 French teams. Irish teams then finished in the top 3 positions in the Magners League and Munster won the the trophy in an all Irish final. What are people missing? Irish rugby finished last season on a high. It's only natural that the fans now have boosted expectations now. Whether these expectations are realistic is yet to be seen. But it's obvious where they come from.

Unfortunately though, the great end to the season for Irish rugby was preceded by 18 months of dreadful performances and a lot of defeats for the Irish team. And on top of that we have a tough draw. The smart money would be on the Irish going out in the quarters to South Africa. But given the silverware won by the Irish provinces and the top performance against England, we're within our rights to be hopeful of catching Australia or South Africa out in a one off game. I don't think it's delusional or arrogant for Irish fans to be hopeful.

Feckless, and what a finish to the season it was, I agree - Munster in the ML (w/- Leinster and Ulster in attendance), Leinster in the Heino, and a resounding defeat of eventual 6Ns champions England in your last intl game - undeniably great stuff. So I can only conclude that the majority of the rest of us (nod to whocares for his Irish semi prediction ) are putting more weight on what you refer to as the preceding "18 months of dreadful performances and a lot of defeats for the Irish team" than we are to the most recent part? It's a balance thing.

I wouldn't descirbe your aspirations as delusional or arrogant (although I've seen comments of both flavours in support of the aspiration), but they feel ambitious to me - but heck, I'm all for ambition Would be grand to see another NH side take the RWC, and I'd be more than happy for it to be Ireland

roddersm wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Anything less than consistently first doesn't really count that much in my book, although I'll allow consistently 1st or 2nd cos I'm feeling generous today!!

Can you point out the side that have been consistantly 1st?

i don't think there has been one, perhaps France would be statistically closest?

red_stag wrote:Nottins - in trophies yes. Its a fact we've only won the 6 Nations once recently. I can't and won't try argue that.

No, you've only ever won the 6N once.

red_stag wrote:BUT we have won over 70% of all our entire history of 6 Nations games. France have one game more than us. England have won quite a bit less.

We have been building to this

I didn't realise 4 was such a big number which is how many more 6N games Ireland have won than England.

Also Leicester have the same record in the HEC as Leinster and Munster. Toulouse have an even better record, but I bet you won't see anyone from France or England claiming their national side will get to the RWC semis based on it.

red_stag wrote:But getting to the semi final itself should be no problem.

You really think beating South Africa or Australia from Lansdowne or Croke Park isn't going to be a problem ?

roddersm wrote:Can you point out the side that have been consistantly 1st?

In terms of the 6N that surely has to be France with 5 Wins, 2 of which came after the last world cup.....

Nottins - England and France's club game is completely different to the harmonious provincial system employed by the IRFU. You do see people point to link between Super Rugby and the Tri Nations teams.

Radge

It is likely that after the SA vs Irish clash the Irish would be able to use their voices in all singing together.


To be sung on the tune of country road.


"Take me home, aeroplane
To the place, we last won
croke park, Lansdowne road.
Take me home, aeroplane."

red_stag wrote:Nottins - England and France's club game is completely different to the harmonious provincial system employed by the IRFU. You do see people point to link between Super Rugby and the Tri Nations teams.

Ah yes, the success of Munster in the HEC in 2006 really worked for Ireland in 2007. Just like the two Welsh sides that finished 1st and 2nd in the 2007 Magners League didn't help Wales.

nottins wrote:

red_stag wrote:Nottins - England and France's club game is completely different to the harmonious provincial system employed by the IRFU. You do see people point to link between Super Rugby and the Tri Nations teams.

Ah yes, the success of Munster in the HEC in 2006 really worked for Ireland in 2007. Just like the two Welsh sides that finished 1st and 2nd in the 2007 Magners League didn't help Wales.

No it didn't. Musnter won a HEC for the first time and we were delirious with excitement. Move on 5 years and Munster have won another Heineken Cup, Ireland have delivered a Grandslam and Leinster have delivered a Heineken Cup and then another.

That was only the beginning Nottins.

red_stag wrote:

nottins wrote:

red_stag wrote:Nottins - England and France's club game is completely different to the harmonious provincial system employed by the IRFU. You do see people point to link between Super Rugby and the Tri Nations teams.

Ah yes, the success of Munster in the HEC in 2006 really worked for Ireland in 2007. Just like the two Welsh sides that finished 1st and 2nd in the 2007 Magners League didn't help Wales.

No it didn't. Musnter won a HEC for the first time and we were delirious with excitement. Move on 5 years and Munster have won another Heineken Cup, Ireland have delivered a Grandslam and Leinster have delivered a Heineken Cup and then another.

That was only the beginning Nottins.

So is this the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end?!

Munster won the HC in 2006 Nottins, not 2007 (so the effect of a HC in 2006 is less than it would have been in 2007). They were knocked out by Llanelli Scarlets of all teams in 2007 I think. You can debate what helps till the end of time but it's all subjective really. I think that the confidence of the players from Leinster (winning the HC), Munster (winning the Magners), Ulster (getting to the 1/4's for the first time in 10 years and getting to the playoff's in the ML) and Connacht (having probably their best season ever) can only be a good thing though. We'll find out how much effect it has had in a few months I suppose.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:

roddersm wrote:Can you point out the side that have been consistantly 1st?

In terms of the 6N that surely has to be France with 5 Wins, 2 of which came after the last world cup.....

Is this the same French that you accused of being inconsistant?.... It's funny how some myths aren't supported by the facts.

red_stag wrote:
No it didn't. Musnter won a HEC for the first time and we were delirious with excitement. Move on 5 years and Munster have won another Heineken Cup, Ireland have delivered a Grandslam and Leinster have delivered a Heineken Cup and then another.

That was only the beginning Nottins.

Ireland won the Grand Slam in 2009, finished 2nd in the 6N in 2010 and 3rd in 2011. They only just beat Italy this year as well. What is it the beginning of ?

mrsuperclear wrote:Munster won the HC in 2006 Nottins, not 2007

I know, I even posted that they won it in 2006.

biltongbek wrote:It is likely that after the SA vs Irish clash the Irish would be able to use their voices in all singing together.


To be sung on the tune of country road.


"Take me home, aeroplane
To the place, we last won
croke park, Lansdowne road.
Take me home, aeroplane."

Biltong would you like to share how SA's recent away record against Ireland fills you with such confidence?

nottins wrote:

mrsuperclear wrote:Munster won the HC in 2006 Nottins, not 2007

I know, I even posted that they won it in 2006.

Not saying you didn't sunshine Did you see the brackets after my wee quote there? It should explain why I quoted you

roddersm wrote:

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:

roddersm wrote:Can you point out the side that have been consistantly 1st?

In terms of the 6N that surely has to be France with 5 Wins, 2 of which came after the last world cup.....

Is this the same French that you accused of being inconsistant?.... It's funny how some myths aren't supported by the facts.

It's all in the question Rodders

roddersm wrote:Can you point out the side that have been consistantly 1st?

France is the Answer to that question. Since they have been 1st the most times. Results wise I would have to say that they are the most consistent since they have won the most too. However Inconsistent has to fall into the Category of beating Ireland and then going onto lose against Italy, which is exactly what France did. Stats as you said can add to the myths or destroy them.

The same can be said about New Zealand being inconsistant in world cups.

I guess the real thrust of the matter is when you are "considered" favourites to win games and end up losing them..... I guess that makes you Inconsistent.

rodders, clearly it'll be an away fixture for both teams, albeit SA have experience of playing more regularly in NZ thru the Tri-Nations, but certainly no home advantage to either team

mrsuperclear wrote:Munster won the HC in 2006 Nottins, not 2007 (so the effect of a HC in 2006 is less than it would have been in 2007). They were knocked out by Llanelli Scarlets of all teams in 2007 I think. You can debate what helps till the end of time but it's all subjective really. I think that the confidence of the players from Leinster (winning the HC), Munster (winning the Magners), Ulster (getting to the 1/4's for the first time in 10 years and getting to the playoff's in the ML) and Connacht (having probably their best season ever) can only be a good thing though. We'll find out how much effect it has had in a few months I suppose.

Gee, thanks for that.

I think Ireland going from the success of their provinces this season have a lot of reasons to feel positive leading up the the RWC. However they were poor bar one game in the 6 Nations so I think balance is needed. QF's should be a cert for you guys, and SF the best you could hope for, in my opinion.

nottins wrote:They only just beat Italy this year as well.

Is that the Italian side that beat the French? It's funny how no one has asked where the confidence in the French has come from?

It seems head to head's with Italy and international away records are only applied to Ireland when assessing WC chances?

mrsuperclear wrote:

nottins wrote:

mrsuperclear wrote:Munster won the HC in 2006 Nottins, not 2007

I know, I even posted that they won it in 2006.

Not saying you didn't sunshine Did you see the brackets after my wee quote there? It should explain why I quoted you

Yes I did sunshine. Still don't see why you needed to try and correct me. My point was that an Irish province winning the HEC didn't help in 2007 and so why should it help in 2011 ?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:rodders, clearly it'll be an away fixture for both teams, albeit SA have experience of playing more regularly in NZ thru the Tri-Nations, but certainly no home advantage to either team

Exactly my point so why the double standards applied to the Irish supporters? No one is querying SA's away form or ability to beat Ireland away from home?

roddersm wrote:

nottins wrote:They only just beat Italy this year as well.

Is that the Italian side that beat the French? It's funny how no one has asked where the confidence in the French has come from?

It seems head to head's with Italy and international away records are only applied to Ireland when assessing WC chances?

Is there anyone putting forward a case for France as strongly as the Irish posters are doing for Ireland ? I thought not.

roddersm wrote:

nottins wrote:They only just beat Italy this year as well.

Is that the Italian side that beat the French? It's funny how no one has asked where the confidence in the French has come from?

It seems head to head's with Italy and international away records are only applied to Ireland when assessing WC chances?

rodders, no question that France can go from the sublime to the ridiculous within the span of a gnat's baw-hair, and that they appear to have an 'issue' with overcoming England at "HQ", much as Ireland struggle to deliver away to France. Not true for your last sentence - this last 6Ns, France put Scotland away (a 4 try performance) at home, edged Ireland away, lost to England away, lost to Italy away (made themselves look foolish), and defeated Wales at home - definitely inconsistent, certainly relative to the talent that most folk feel they have at their disposal, but perhaps to be expected given their Head Coach. The poll shows that England appear to most people to be the NH team likely to qualify, with Fance's and Ireland's chances to be about the same

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:
I guess the real thrust of the matter is when you are "considered" favourites to win games and end up losing them..... I guess that makes you Inconsistent.

Ah so there's "consistent" and "consistent". Would you like to point out how many times Ireland have lost this season when they've been "considered favourites" and then point out who the teams were?

As far as I'm aware we've lost to SA, France and NZ at home and to Wales away. 3 of those games were by one score.

So either you consider us "favourites" againt SA, France and NZ or we've only lost once when expected to win?

roddersm wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:rodders, clearly it'll be an away fixture for both teams, albeit SA have experience of playing more regularly in NZ thru the Tri-Nations, but certainly no home advantage to either team

Exactly my point so why the double standards applied to the Irish supporters? No one is querying SA's away form or ability to beat Ireland away from home?

In the pro era, SA have won in Ireland 3 teams and at home 4x; Ireland have won 3 times at home, never away - that is the record. If you want to focus on just the most recent fixture (see Feckless's momentum argument above, then that was a win away for South Africa or a narrow home loss for Ireland)

Given the draw, either France or England can make the semi-finals without beating a 3N team, Ireland can't*. Purely on that basis I rate England and France a higher chance of reaching the semis - it comes down to which of them beats the other. If Ireland was swapped pools with either England or France I'd have them as odds on to make the semis, as it stands now I'd give them 1 chance in 3 (i.e 33% probability).


*unless a tier 2 nation manages to beat SA or Aus of course.

nottins wrote:
Is there anyone putting forward a case for France as strongly as the Irish posters are doing for Ireland ? I thought not.

France have 20 votes to Irelands 17. Considering there's not many French on here that's a big vote of confidence isn't it nottins? But yet it hasn't been queried with the same scrutiny as the "Irish confidence" which apparantly no one outside Ireland can understand.

"The poll shows that England appear to most people to be the NH team likely to qualify, with Fance's and Ireland's chances to be about the same."

Or perhaps they are the views of most England fans?

Kiwireddevil wrote:Given the draw, either France or England can make the semi-finals without beating a 3N team, Ireland can't*. Purely on that basis I rate England and France a higher chance of reaching the semis - it comes down to which of them beats the other. If Ireland was swapped pools with either England or France I'd have them as odds on to make the semis, as it stands now I'd give them 1 chance in 3 (i.e 33% probability).


*unless a tier 2 nation manages to beat SA or Aus of course.

+1

RubyGuby wrote:"The poll shows that England appear to most people to be the NH team likely to qualify, with Fance's and Ireland's chances to be about the same."

Or perhaps they are the views of most England fans?

Ruby, could well be, altho there don't seem to be so many England fans on here as I remember on v1?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

In the pro era, SA have won in Ireland 3 times and at home 4x; Ireland have won 3 times at home, never away - that is the record

In the same period, Australia have won 3 times in Ireland and 7 times at home, Ireland have won 3 times at home, never away.

New Zealand, Australia, Ireland and England.

red_stag wrote:Its about the big picture Asbo. Ireland is a leading rugby nation. We don't really do soccer. GAA are summer sports. We are producing world class players like clockwork since the IRFU embraced professionalism. We've delivered multiple Heineken Cups, Magners Leagues, won the Grandslam, put the likes of Australia and South Africa in their place on a number of occasions etc.

Compare that to the likes of England, Wales, Italy or Scotland. Footballing nations who can claim occasion scalps.

Ireland will push OZ in the groups ,lose, then lose to SA in the QF. Cannot believe the number of people of people writing off SA.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:
In the pro era, SA have won in Ireland 3 teams and at home 4x; Ireland have won 3 times at home, never away - that is the record. If you want to focus on just the most recent fixture (see Feckless's momentum argument above, then that was a win away for South Africa or a narrow home loss for Ireland)

Exactly and if you put the years and scores in for context then it is not as overwhelmingly in favour of SA as it might appear.

roddersm wrote:

nottins wrote:
Is there anyone putting forward a case for France as strongly as the Irish posters are doing for Ireland ? I thought not.

France have 20 votes to Irelands 17. Considering there's not many French on here that's a big vote of confidence isn't it nottins? But yet it hasn't been queried with the same scrutiny as the "Irish confidence" which apparantly no one outside Ireland can understand.

rodders, I think that's the point, it seems unlikely that 'French' posters have voted for France so the view that France will make the semis appears to be more broadly held, whereas i was surmising from the comments related to the poll that (apart from so far only whocares) it appeared only to be Irish posters backing Ireland's chances?