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The US Open Draw

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socal1976
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The US Open Draw - Page 3 Empty The US Open Draw

Post by Guest Thu 25 Aug 2011, 2:52 pm

First topic message reminder :

29th August is just around the corner and another slam will soon be upon us.
The draw is done later today. How do you see it going?

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Post by noleisthebest Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:17 pm

"The one thing before any of the aforementioned happens is - They have to get THAT FAR before any of it can, and there is no guarantee that will be the case."

you talk like you've never played a(ny) sport...I'd be amazed if Novak does not make it to the semi-final. As for the other three, Murray is the most fragile, then current Nadal then current Federer. I haven't looked at their draw and potential upset candidates, but just look at all the other slams this year, that's where the chips are down and they all play full-on. It's called QUALITY....


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Post by CaledonianCraig Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:19 pm

The thing is socal, and I know you realise it as well, no matter what the draw from the semis onwards it was always going to get tough no matter who Novak got. Would you have been happier drawing defending champion Rafael Nadal? Don't see how and yes I know his form has dipped but the same can be said of Federer. Would you have been happier with Murray? Perhaps you would have but even then you'd have Federer or Nadal waiting in the Final. Whatever way you look at it it was going to be tough.
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Post by sportslover Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:20 pm

socal1976 wrote:Of course sportslover and Craig, there is no guarantee, I mean we could have an upset riddled draw like Canada. But again, Novak gets the worst of it from the outset. He isn't getting the benefit of his #1 seeding that is for sure. If he gets the second match on stupid saturday he is screwed with all the matches and the sore shoulder he is fighting. When are people going to recognize malfeasance. We are talking about 6 straight slams when his odds should be only 50 percent of getting Roger?

If he has recovered by early next week and he is back to near the level he was at before, I honestly don't see the problem with Federer.

He should be able to beat him, as I said previously Tsonga can back to back and I would back Novak any day against him.

Federer is not his problem being fully fit is and unfortunately it has happened to all the top players at some stage in their career and especially at slams.

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Post by socal1976 Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:23 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:The thing is socal, and I know you realise it as well, no matter what the draw from the semis onwards it was always going to get tough no matter who Novak got. Would you have been happier drawing defending champion Rafael Nadal? Don't see how and yes I know his form has dipped but the same can be said of Federer. Would you have been happier with Murray? Perhaps you would have but even then you'd have Federer or Nadal waiting in the Final. Whatever way you look at it it was going to be tough.



Craig I would be happier if Novak got anyone but Roger. NOt that murray is a cakewalk I just don't want any part of the second semi on stupid saturday. It is time Nadal got that second semi, he didn't have it last year. Also I just like to think that tennis has some integrity, when I see these weird statistical anomalies that work out to the financial advantage of the Tv broadcasters and the tournament and to the disadvantage of Novak over and over and over again I start to doubt the integrity of the game, i would prefer not to be put in that position. But I am an attorney, when I see the draw come out in favor of the financial interests of the tourney, in light of the massive 64 to 1 longshot of Novak getting Roger 6 times in a row, with no transparency and no accountability I automatically assume malfeasance. Money plus no accountability and no transparency usually results automatically in some form of shenanigans.

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Post by CaledonianCraig Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:26 pm

Totally agree with you on Super Saturday as it just makes the whole thing a lottery but that is your US organisers decision thinking buck signs and to hell with quality tennis and fairness.

Also wait and see how the tournament pans out and the Saturday schedule before getting your knickers in a twist. Wink
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Post by laverfan Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:28 pm

socal1976 wrote:The number #1 seed deserves the breaks but unfortunately again the #1 seed gets a tougher draw than the #4 seed Andy murray.

Let me turn this argument on it's head. This is Djokovic's first slam as #1.

2004 US - Federer seeded #1. 5-set QF (Agassi), 3-set SF (Henman), 3-set F (Hewitt)
2005 US - Federer seeded #1. 3-set QF (Nalbandian), 4-set SF (Hewitt), 4-set F (Agassi)
2006 US - Federer seeded #1. 4-set QF (Blake - 2 TB sets), 3-set SF (Davydenko), 4-set F (Roddick)
2007 US - Federer seeded #1. 3-set QF (Roddick - 2 TB sets), 3-set SF (Davydenko - two sets 7-5), 3-set F (Djokovic - two TB sets).
2008 US - Federer seeded #2. 3-set QF (Muller - 2 TB sets), 4-set SF (Djokovic), 3-set F (Murray)
2009 US - Federer seeded #1. 4-set QF (Soderling - two TB sets, very windy conditions), 3-set QF (Djokovic - 1 TB, 2 7-5), 5-set F (Del Potro won).

If you want I can research who played the first SF and second SF each year. But do you see how tough it is to win (and win it more than once). Wink

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Post by sportslover Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:30 pm

noleisthebest wrote:"The one thing before any of the aforementioned happens is - They have to get THAT FAR before any of it can, and there is no guarantee that will be the case."

you talk like you've never played a(ny) sport...I'd be amazed if Novak does not make it to the semi-final. As for the other three, Murray is the most fragile, then current Nadal then current Federer. candidates, but just look at all the other slams this year, that's where the chips are down and they all play full-on. It's called QUALITY....


"you talk like you've never played a(ny) sport"


Yes cheeky I play golf and have a handicap of 2.


And what about you?

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Post by time please Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:33 pm

laverfan wrote:If you want I can research who played the first SF and second SF each year. But do you see how tough it is to win (and win it more than once). Wink

That would be really interesting laver. Think Fed def played second semi in 2005 and 2009 and first in 2008, but can't remember the rest.



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Post by wow Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:49 pm

Fed and Djoko again, Why?

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Post by socal1976 Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:49 pm

Laverfan, your research does nothing to dispel the oddity of Djokovic drawing federer for six straight slams and counting now.

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Post by wow Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:50 pm

This defies all the probabilities. Every time the draw is similar Nadal v Murray, Fed v Djoko. No matter whatever seedings are.

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Post by CaledonianCraig Thu 25 Aug 2011, 11:57 pm

Yes poor Andy getting the champion again. Rolling Eyes
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Post by socal1976 Fri 26 Aug 2011, 12:00 am

wow wrote:This defies all the probabilities. Every time the draw is similar Nadal v Murray, Fed v Djoko. No matter whatever seedings are.



Not if you are setting up the probablities to protect the chances of a Fedal final and the ratings boon that would occur. This is precisely the configuration that favors the tv ratings and oddly we keep seeing it over and over and over again. This is now the sixth consecutive grandslam that Novak has gotten roger, when the odds should be 50 percent, in short a 64 to 1 longshot coming in that just happens to favor the tv broadcasters. Things that make you say hmmmmmm.

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Post by laverfan Fri 26 Aug 2011, 12:38 am

time please wrote:
laverfan wrote:If you want I can research who played the first SF and second SF each year. But do you see how tough it is to win (and win it more than once). Wink

That would be really interesting laver. Think Fed def played second semi in 2005 and 2009 and first in 2008, but can't remember the rest.



2004 - SF OoP - Hewitt-Johansson, Federer-Henman
2005 - SF OoP - Federer-Hewitt, Agassi-Ginepri
2006 - SF OoP - Federer-Davydenko, Roddick-Youzhny
2007 - SF OoP - Djokovic-Ferrer, Federer-Davydenko
2008 - SF OoP - Federer-Djokovic, Nadal-Murray
2009 - SF OoP - Del Potro - Nadal, Federer - Djokovic

Edit: So Federer has played three of each (first and second SFs).


Last edited by laverfan on Fri 26 Aug 2011, 3:03 am; edited 2 times in total

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Post by luciusmann Fri 26 Aug 2011, 2:47 am

Laverfan, I meant the Fed-Tsonga match @ Montreal, just me being a little forgetful! There's no way Berdych will get past Djokovic so the only significant opponent I see for Fed is Tsonga before the semis.

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Post by laverfan Fri 26 Aug 2011, 3:05 am

luciusmann wrote:Laverfan, I meant the Fed-Tsonga match @ Montreal, just me being a little forgetful! There's no way Berdych will get past Djokovic so the only significant opponent I see for Fed is Tsonga before the semis.

Federer can beat Tsonga. He also needs to play the TBs better, IMVHO.

PS: Thanks for going back and responding to my query. Hug

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Post by Guest Fri 26 Aug 2011, 3:44 am

Oh SHUT IT Socal..

Your whining has reached ridiculous proportions.

You've done nothing but whine about the draw before it was made, since it was made, and no doubt will continue to do so until well after the tournament is over.

Your conspiracy theory is a rubbish theory with no proof whatsoever to substantiate it.

Whatever the draw, c'est la vie, get over it,

You sound like the cry baby in the playground that just wont stop CRYING.

furious

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Post by Guest Fri 26 Aug 2011, 3:45 am

You also made my 400th post a miserable one.

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Post by sirfredperry Fri 26 Aug 2011, 8:18 am

Read Neil Harman in The Times today about the draw. He doesn't talk about the Fed/Djoko constant match up but about the top players getting easy matches early on. May be THAT'S where the conspiracy theory comes in.
One thing is a bit different this time. Fed and Djoko are meeting in the TOP half of the draw, not the bottom. So may be it's not such a statistical freak after all.
One good thing is that with the advent of 32 seeds, at least we don't get the disastrous-draw-for-both-players scenario of the 17th guy in the world playing the number one in the first round.

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Post by socal1976 Fri 26 Aug 2011, 8:43 am

Emancipator, 64 to 1 longshot coming out in favor of those that control the process. What a convenient longshot, the math on its face is per se evidence of fraud quite frankly. Statistics are evidence Emancipator, they are often used in courts of law. Just because you wouldn't know evidence if it jumped up and bit your dirty place doesn't mean that I have to just accept the raw deal. We know Novak has to just grin and bear it or else he will be crucified by the ATP and the media, but frankly it has already cost him at least one grandslam. That is why I rate Djokovic with the equivalent of 6 slams at this point, because every grandslam he has won he has had to beat the field and the draw rigging committee.

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Post by Positively 4th Street Fri 26 Aug 2011, 10:57 am

emancipator wrote:Oh SHUT IT Socal..

Your whining has reached ridiculous proportions.

You've done nothing but whine about the draw before it was made, since it was made, and no doubt will continue to do so until well after the tournament is over.

Your conspiracy theory is a rubbish theory with no proof whatsoever to substantiate it.

Whatever the draw, c'est la vie, get over it,

You sound like the cry baby in the playground that just wont stop CRYING.

furious

Well said emancipator. Socal can talk sense on many topics, but this is just rabid ranting. And the same thing in so many posts, and on multiple threads. It's like he's trying to browbeat us all in to submission.

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Post by Positively 4th Street Fri 26 Aug 2011, 11:10 am

socal1976 wrote:Why isn't Nadal required to play Federer in every single semi at a grandslam to be a legend? Federer is slumping now but this is 6th straight grandslam that Novak has gotten put into Roger's half. 3rd straight since he has stopped being the #3 player and become the number #2 or #1 player. Like I said Djokovic's accomplishments are multiplied due to the tough competition he has had from FEdal and the draw rigging that he has had to fight with the grandslam committee. Don't worry I am sure if Roger fades even more and Murray gets stronger than the tournament committee will start giving Novak Andy in his half pretending that now well it all evens out. Wrong it doesn't, it doesn't make up for 6 straight grandslams getting the short straw while Roger and Rafa are both still viable. At this point, Novak has already played Roger and Rafa 2 and half times as much as Andy has had to play them. 51 matches against Fedal and draw rigging on top of that to accomplish what he has, in short Djoko's 3 slams are really like 6 or 7. The draw rigging probably already has cost him the french open this year. That and the ridiculous scheduling and the unfortunate Fogi incident. Really, with a sore shoulder and staring down the barrel of the late match on stupid saturday this grandslam has practically been fixed from the outset and all the breaks given to Nadal and Murray, I can't really value their accomplishments as much if they do win it at this point. If anything the committee is gifting murray his first slam or in the alternate gifting Nadal his 11th slam.

Hi socal,

This is nonsense. Djokovic has played Federer & Nadal more often by virtue of being more successful than Murray. Are you suggesting that Djokovic has to play both Federer and Nadal in some tournaments and Murray is drawn to play neither? In which case the draws in 'conspiracy corner' must have 3 halves... laughing

Why stop at multiplying Djokovic's slams by 2? Make it 5, giving him 15 and a shot at GOAThood in NYC. You can anoint him in conspiracy corner. Meanwhile, the rest of us will use actual tallies and poor, oppressed Djokovic has 3 and is in the midst of a great year. Enjoy that, and don't demean yourself by saying the only thing that can 'save' the US Open and all it's underhand cheating is a win for your boy.


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Post by legendkillar Fri 26 Aug 2011, 11:46 am

Can we move away from this 'conspiracy' crap. Not sure why someone would want to attempt to tarnish or question integrity to such events. I am fan of the tennis aspect. Who plays who is irrelevant. Either way you have to beat the best to win. To be the man, you gotta beat the man. None this short route to success rubbish.

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Post by Josiah Maiestas Fri 26 Aug 2011, 11:48 am

Like I said Djokovic's accomplishments are multiplied due to the tough competition he has had from FEdal and the draw rigging that he has had to fight with the grandslam committee. Don't worry I am sure if Roger fades even more and Murray gets stronger than the tournament committee will start giving Novak Andy in his half pretending that now well it all evens out. Wrong it doesn't, it doesn't make up for 6 straight grandslams getting the short straw while Roger and Rafa are both still viable.
lol multiple? laughing
Who exactly is the draw benefitting the most? Let's face it Federer is more comfortable meeting Nole than Nadal because of his bad history, although equally i'm sure Murray would rather play Nole as he doesn't have as bad a head2head with him. Federer it seems will never meet Nadal in a semi, put that in your bookmark folks.... zen
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Post by laverfan Fri 26 Aug 2011, 12:23 pm

Josiah Maiestas wrote:
Federer it seems will never meet Nadal in a semi, put that in your bookmark folks.... zen

It is due to the fact that #1 and #2 do not meet in SFs. Nadal and Djokovic are not in the same half at USO 2011. Correct? thumbsup

Madrid 2011, Miami 2011, TMC 2007, TMC 2006, FO 2005 (based on the seeding or RR play in the case of TMC/WTF).

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=F324&oId=N409

zen

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Post by socal1976 Fri 26 Aug 2011, 5:05 pm

Positevly 4th street, evidence has been provided by a Phd statistician showing the draw isn't random and therefore manufactured. Draw rigging has already cost novak the tainted RG championship of 2011, in the future I wonder how many more grandslams it costs him. So is it your contention that for Novak to deserve a grandslam he must be drawn against both GOAT candidates in every slam?



I was being a little sarcastic with the mulitiply Novak's grandslams by 2 thing. Maybe a little wummery on my part. But frankly, I do believe that a combination of draw rigging and poor scheduling contributed greatly to his demise at RG. I am not the only one who is questioning this and evidence has been provided on another thread.

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Post by Positively 4th Street Fri 26 Aug 2011, 10:42 pm

socal1976 wrote:Positevly 4th street, evidence has been provided by a Phd statistician showing the draw isn't random and therefore manufactured. Draw rigging has already cost novak the tainted RG championship of 2011, in the future I wonder how many more grandslams it costs him. So is it your contention that for Novak to deserve a grandslam he must be drawn against both GOAT candidates in every slam?

I was being a little sarcastic with the mulitiply Novak's grandslams by 2 thing. Maybe a little wummery on my part. But frankly, I do believe that a combination of draw rigging and poor scheduling contributed greatly to his demise at RG. I am not the only one who is questioning this and evidence has been provided on another thread.

Hi socal,

It had the whiff of summery in it, but thought I'd fight fire with fire... You neglected to reply to my comment on your plain daft statement about Djokovic having had to play Federer and Nadal more often as if were evidence of rigging. Also, please give it a rest re RG, Nadal was a worthy winner. Recall too that he was #1 going in to that tournament, and you seem to think that the top seed should get the easier semi so that means no problem at RG. Nadal had to beat (peak) Federer in the semi on his way to is first slam at RG so I have no sympathy on that one. If you had your wish then Nadal, a 5-time former champion would have had the ostensibly tougher semi, yet you now claim that the number one should get the easier draw. Or is that only when Djokovic is #1?

Also, I have news for you. I am actually a statistician, armed with a PhD, and I'd like to see more details of this 'proof' before taking it up and running with it.

A couple more things. It could be argued that Murray is a tougher draw than Federer at the minute, he just won in Cincinnati (may not have played that well, but then he must have to win a Masters event in your 'golden' era surely?) and beat Djokovic in the process. Also, it's not as if Federer is anything like at his peak so it's a bit misleading to say Djokovic must face 2 GOATs. If Federer was still at his best then Djokovic may well not be #1 anyway.

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Post by socal1976 Sat 27 Aug 2011, 12:24 am

It had the whiff of summery in it, but thought I'd fight fire with fire... You neglected to reply to my comment on your plain daft statement about Djokovic having had to play Federer and Nadal more often as if were evidence of rigging. Also, please give it a rest re RG, Nadal was a worthy winner 4th street



Yes with the help of draw rigging he was very worthy in my mind it will always be the tainted RG of 2011. You won't convince me otherwise I watched it all unfold.



Recall too that he was #1 going in to that tournament, and you seem to think that the top seed should get the easier semi so that means no problem at RG.



Except that by the rules either as the #1 or #2 player he should only have a 50 percent chance of drawing #3 federer and obviously that hasn't happened in nearly 2 years.



A couple more things. It could be argued that Murray is a tougher draw than Federer at the minute, he just won in Cincinnati (may not have played that well, but then he must have to win a Masters event in your 'golden' era surely?) and beat Djokovic in the process. Also, it's not as if Federer is anything like at his peak so it's a bit misleading to say Djokovic must face 2 GOATs. If Federer was still at his best then Djokovic may well not be #1 anyway.



Except that this weird streak has been going on for 2 or 3 years. And right now I still think Fed is the most dangerous of the two players in a grandslam for Novak until Andy proves otherwise with a consistent grandslam run. He beat Novak with a bum shoulder good on him he did what he had to do.



Please on this issue if you have further comments please address them on socal's conspiracy corner so I can more easily comment and keep track of everything.

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Post by legendkillar Sat 27 Aug 2011, 12:31 am

That guy with the PHD can kiss my ass. He ain't proved a god damn thing apart from adds and chances.

Luck of the draw as they say.

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Post by socal1976 Sat 27 Aug 2011, 12:34 am

legendkillar wrote:That guy with the PHD can kiss my ass. He ain't proved a god damn thing apart from adds and chances.

Luck of the draw as they say.



There isn't much luck involved if the draw is rigged legend, that is the whole point. The draw has been proven to not be random so luck has nothing to do with it.

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