US Open Qualifiers and Draw

Qualifying rounds taking place today and the following 3 days in New York. Vicky Duval won her first match on her return from treatment for cancer, and 16 year old CiCi Bellis beat 44 year old Kimiko Date Krumm.

The main draws are on Thursday. Seeding for the men follows the rankings as no withdrawals so:
1 Djokovic, Novak SRB
2 Federer, Roger SUI
3 Murray, Andy GBR
4 Nishikori, Kei JPN
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5 Wawrinka, Stan SUI
6 Berdych, Tomas CZE
7 Ferrer, David ESP
8 Nadal, Rafael ESP
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9 Cilic, Marin CRO
10 Raonic, Milos CAN
11 Simon, Gilles FRA
12 Gasquet, Richard FRA

13 Isner, John USA
14 Goffin, David BEL
15 Anderson, Kevin RSA
16 Monfils, Gael FRA
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17 Dimitrov, Grigor BUL
18 Lopez, Feliciano ESP
19 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried FRA
20 Thiem, Dominic AUT
21 Karlovic, Ivo CRO
22 Troicki, Viktor SRB
23 Bautista Agut, Roberto ESP
24 Tomic, Bernard AUS

25 Seppi, Andreas ITA
26 Robredo, Tommy ESP
27 Chardy, Jeremy FRA
28 Sock, Jack USA
29 Kohlschreiber, Philipp GER
30 Bellucci, Thomaz BRA
31 Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo ESP
32 Fognini, Fabio ITA

Top 4 draw 25-32 in R3, 13-16 in R4, 5-8  in QF. What draw would you like to see or like to avoid for any of the top contenders?

Easiest route for any of 1-4 looks like R3 Belluci, R4 Goffin, QF Ferrer
Toughest maybe R3 Chardy, R4 Monfils, QF Wawrinka

Lurking unseeded are Dolgopolov, Kyrgios along with big servers such as Muller, Querrey, Groth. Any others to avoid?

Date Krumm is still playing!?

Fantastic

For Fed, it's simply essential that Novak & Andy are in the opposite half, he has no chance of going through both of them.

I'd very much like him to play David Ferrer; at 16-0 the h2h is tied as the longest winning run against a player (alongside his own v Youzhny plus others) so that would be cool. 1st round vs the Colonel would be great too, the tennis wouldn't be bad either.

Other than that there are some very dangerous floaters out there. Kyrgios especially.

From a bias point of view I would like to see Nishikori in Murray's half, not likely at all. Federer in his half might give him a small chance.

5-8 Stan is the one to avoid. Possibly Berdych if he finds some form again.

9-12 I think they are all woefully out of form. I'd be surprised if any of them are lurking in the last 8.

13-16 Is quite tough actually. Isner would be a handful on LA. Goffin and Monfils if they hit a purple patch.

Looking further down I think Lopez and Thiem could raise a few eyebrows.

Kei can't be in Murray's half. Its Fed or Novak in the scheduled SF. I think I would prefer Fed in the SF. Andy won't get through Novak without it being an all-out war and I don't think he will recover well enough for a final.

Brydan Klein beat Dusan Lajovic. Good result for him.

Liam Broady lost.

legendkillarV2 wrote:From a bias point of view I would like to see Nishikori in Murray's half, not likely at all. Federer in his half might give him a small chance.

5-8 Stan is the one to avoid. Possibly Berdych if he finds some form again.

9-12 I think they are all woefully out of form. I'd be surprised if any of them are lurking in the last 8.

13-16 Is quite tough actually. Isner would be a handful on LA. Goffin and Monfils if they hit a purple patch.

Looking further down I think Lopez and Thiem could raise a few eyebrows.

Think Gasquet is hitting some decent form again, his problem is always beating the big boys though.

Thiem seems cr@p on hard courts, maybe he was tired from his clay exploits though.

Agree with above, Kyrgios and Dolgopolov are the most dangerous floaters.

Guest82 wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:From a bias point of view I would like to see Nishikori in Murray's half, not likely at all. Federer in his half might give him a small chance.

5-8 Stan is the one to avoid. Possibly Berdych if he finds some form again.

9-12 I think they are all woefully out of form. I'd be surprised if any of them are lurking in the last 8.

13-16 Is quite tough actually. Isner would be a handful on LA. Goffin and Monfils if they hit a purple patch.

Looking further down I think Lopez and Thiem could raise a few eyebrows.

Think Gasquet is hitting some decent form again, his problem is always beating the big boys though.

Thiem seems cr@p on hard courts, maybe he was tired from his clay exploits though.

Agree with above, Kyrgios and Dolgopolov are the most dangerous floaters.

Gassy's problem is he does a good job beating himself!

Thiem I will reserve judgment. Be interesting to he how he fairs against the players below.

Just got to wonder about Kyrgios and what comes out of his mouth next!

legendkillarV2 wrote:From a bias point of view I would like to see Nishikori in Murray's half, not likely at all.

No, not likely at all!!

bogbrush wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:From a bias point of view I would like to see Nishikori in Murray's half, not likely at all.

No, not likely at all!!

I can only hope for a draw rigger!

Im gonna stick up for Gassy, for once. He's not the self harmer he once was. Injury aside, a quarter final could be on the cards.

Where seeds are concerned (and sometimes unseeded players too) I am always reluctant to write off the prospect of any specific players having a decent run and/or causing an upset.

Slams are different from the regular tour when it comes to making predictions based on form. Over the years, we have seen countless instances of players coming in to a Slam looking great (inc an impressive win in one of the warm-up events) only to fall early ; and also the complete opposite.

I think in the same way that lesser-fancied players produce something special in DC ties, they often suddenly find motivation at Slams by telling themselves  "this is what it's all about ....this is why I worked so hard, to get here and play on a big stage ..." Seem to remember Barry Cowan (as about as unfancied as they come I guess...) very very nearly edging Sampras at Wimbledon.

The laws of probability generally do work out in the end, sure. But there could be a lot of surprises en route to the Final.

Of the round of 16 guys, the one who gets Isner will be cursing their luck, hes a home cooking man.

If he gets Kohli early on, he's outta there. I think he's lost twice in a row at the US to him.

LuvSports! wrote:If he gets Kohli early on, he's outta there. I think he's lost twice in a row at the US to him.

You could be right.

But equally, you could be very wrong.

Never forget the standard Wall Street disclaimer to potential investors :

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

I want Federer to draw Rafa, be nice to see a US open meeting between the most famous of all rivalries.

"History teaches us that history teaches us nothing."

Oh I do wish you hadn't said that CAS !

I now live in trepidation of the thread suddenly being dominated by endless & pointless circular talk/predictions of ......well .....you know what I mean

LuvSports - nice one !

"The microchip is in the birthday cake."


"Hippo fly over water."


"If that cantaloupe isn't removed from that table, I will lose my mind."

Ok, that's enough now LuvSports - Ed.

Will Federer or Djokovic draw Murray?
Who will get Nadal? (and other quarter finals)
Kyrgios draw after him being in the news.

Inevitably, those are the things people will look out for. Drawing Nadal is not worst option - I'd put Warwinka as the hardest and Ferrer as the one you want. Howevere inevitably it's of interest who has the Nadal QF, I think Berdych would be slightly easier simply because you never know when Nadal is going to rediscover something, not that it looks likely, but you never know.

unless you're the BBC of course in which case "Murray draws qualifier" trumps all tennis news stories

Henman Bill wrote:unless you're the BBC of course in which case "Murray draws qualifier" trumps all tennis news stories

True enough.

We must at least be grateful that the Beeb don't devote the same resources to the USO as they do to Wimbledon, so we tend to get proportionately less of the stereotypical BS from them.

Speaking of the Beeb and Wimbledon, I sincerely hope (but in vain methinks) that Clare Balding will be dropped next year. Ok, she was not personally responsible for the that ill-fated backdrop used for the horrendous Wimbledon2day show. BUT I did think she herself was pretty awful nonetheless - and it tainted forever my previously positive image of her from horse-racing (where she obviously knows her stuff) and the Olympics (for which she received a lot of deservedly favourable reviews)

Henman Bill wrote:

........................................

Howevere inevitably it's of interest who has the Nadal QF, I think Berdych would be slightly easier simply because you never know when Nadal is going to rediscover something, not that it looks likely, but you never know.

Haven't seen any quotes yet, but I suspect the odds for a Nadal title win will be very generous. In which case, I'm inclined to have a punt myself because I just don't think you can ever write him off. Too much experience of winning for him to be discounted from the equation, I am convinced he will come good at some point - and quite possibly sooner rather than later. Plus, he will be well-rested.

Cool changeable conditions are likely in the second week, which if occurs makes it more like Novak had for his Wimby final win rather than what Roger had for his SF Murray and last weekend's wins

Of course it'll probably be a heatwave!!

lags72 wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:

........................................

Howevere inevitably it's of interest who has the Nadal QF, I think Berdych would be slightly easier simply because you never know when Nadal is going to rediscover something, not that it looks likely, but you never know.

Haven't seen any quotes yet, but I suspect the odds for a Nadal title win will be very generous. In which case, I'm inclined to have a punt myself because I just don't think you can ever write him off. Too much experience of winning for him to be discounted from the equation, I am convinced he will come good at some point  - and quite possibly sooner rather than later. Plus, he will be well-rested.

I don't get the faith in Nadal. He's showing no improvement when he's playing any of his key rivals. His aura has gone and his great 2013 is now largely irrelevant. During one of his first points against Lopez, who just happens to have a losing record to the top 3 of nearly 30-0, he shanked a ball so high I'm certain it's still orbiting the moon

It might come back for the clay season next year

Well, look, I can see the point you make banbro, and I agree there is no obvious sign of improvement so far where high-quality fields are concerned.

But all said & done, this is not science but sport, with the myriad twists & turns we have seen over countless years - and will continue to see for as long as it's played.

Consider this for a moment :

- in 2002, Pete Sampras came into the USO with a season's W/L tally of 20-17, and ZERO titles all that year to date - or indeed the whole of the previous year. He took home the trophy, as we know (and of course promptly retired ....!)

- this year, Rafa will enter the USO with figures of 42-14, and three titles.

Just sayin ............

lags72 wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:

........................................

Howevere inevitably it's of interest who has the Nadal QF, I think Berdych would be slightly easier simply because you never know when Nadal is going to rediscover something, not that it looks likely, but you never know.

Haven't seen any quotes yet, but I suspect the odds for a Nadal title win will be very generous. In which case, I'm inclined to have a punt myself because I just don't think you can ever write him off. Too much experience of winning for him to be discounted from the equation, I am convinced he will come good at some point  - and quite possibly sooner rather than later. Plus, he will be well-rested.

Also the Chinese stock market is doing really well at the moment, nothing like cutting interest rates to boost confidence

banbrotam wrote:

lags72 wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:

........................................

Howevere inevitably it's of interest who has the Nadal QF, I think Berdych would be slightly easier simply because you never know when Nadal is going to rediscover something, not that it looks likely, but you never know.

Haven't seen any quotes yet, but I suspect the odds for a Nadal title win will be very generous. In which case, I'm inclined to have a punt myself because I just don't think you can ever write him off. Too much experience of winning for him to be discounted from the equation, I am convinced he will come good at some point  - and quite possibly sooner rather than later. Plus, he will be well-rested.

I don't get the faith in Nadal. He's showing no improvement when he's playing any of his key rivals. His aura has gone and his great 2013 is now largely irrelevant. During one of his first points against Lopez, who just happens to have a losing record to the top 3 of nearly 30-0, he shanked a ball so high I'm certain it's still orbiting the moon

It  might come back for the clay season next year

What the ball or Nadal??

Nadal is not the kind of player that blows hot one week and cold the next. He tend to infact below hot one year and cold the next. OK, if not whole years 3 or 6 or 9 month periods at times.

His form seems to change steadily. This may be because it's more based, in his case, on physical and mental rather than tactics and weather his eye is in.

A Nadal return for me you would look at French Open next year or maybe AO'16 if he starts at least getting to semi finals and finals towards end of this year and giving himself something to build on.

My prediction for the US Open is that he will lose in either R3, R4 or the QF. I would be very surprised if he could win it. I don't see him in the semis at the moment.

Nadal at 10-1 I wouldn't think of any interest at all for the US Open, 20-1 might be reasonable although it would have to be about 30-1 for me to actually put a bet on which is never going to happen. Let me check.

OK, so most book makers are in the region of 16 - 20 for Nadal. That's about what I thought. There are a few offerinng odds in the range of 30 - 40 - some lesser known bookies I don't have an account with.

Djokovic, at 5-4, 6-5 or 11-10, does not look attractive to me. I agree he's favourite but Murray at 7-2 or Federer at 9-2 offer more valuable. Stan is a decent bet for me in the 12 to 16 region. Nishikori around 16 to 18.

Stan is 4th favourite, and Nishikori at Rafa are about the same.

Then Cilic in 25 - 50 region.

I am not going to bet here - there is nothing screaming out to me- although it I was I would go for Stan or Cilic and maybe Federer or Murray but not Nadal or Djokovic.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/mens/winner

I think Rafa can do better at NY than at Montreal and Cincy. The court there suits him and in BO5, he can beat people like Lopez. Those in the 9-12 range are beatable by Rafa - Raonic and Cilic are out of form; he can beat Simon and Gasquet. Rafa can navigate his way into the QF, for he's able to handle big servers on that USO court. He has not fallen before the R4 since 2007, not even taken to a five setter there since his early years of 2003/2004; has always reached a SF at least, since then.

The Canada/Cincy Masters are not good gauge of his level, as he rarely does well there. His relatively bad year in 2011 where he was knocked out in R2 at Canada and QF in Cincy, he still reached the USO final. I think he may reach the QF this time.

Possibly, though his ability to drag the lungs out of players is being undermined by his weak groundstrokes. Others are pushing him around, not the reverse.

Still, it's not like he got pounded by Lopez, it could easily have gone the other way. As always, a lot depends on the draw.

It Must Be Love wrote:

lags72 wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:

........................................

Howevere inevitably it's of interest who has the Nadal QF, I think Berdych would be slightly easier simply because you never know when Nadal is going to rediscover something, not that it looks likely, but you never know.

Haven't seen any quotes yet, but I suspect the odds for a Nadal title win will be very generous. In which case, I'm inclined to have a punt myself because I just don't think you can ever write him off. Too much experience of winning for him to be discounted from the equation, I am convinced he will come good at some point  - and quite possibly sooner rather than later. Plus, he will be well-rested.

Also the Chinese stock market is doing really well at the moment, nothing like cutting interest rates to boost confidence kick the can down the road

Corrected.

Henman Bill wrote:Djokovic, at 5-4, 6-5 or 11-10

Ridiculously low odds. He's only managed to win the tournament once and that was 4 years ago!

Does seem extreme, especially given his two closest rivals both earned morale-boosting wins in the last few weeks.

He's won 2/3 grand slams this year and only got stopped on the final by an incredible performance in the 3rd. Fed isn't beating him over 5 sets. Effectively, betting against him is either on the basis that Stan or Andy will beat him or that he implodes so badly he loses to a.n.other. Just above evens looks about right to me.

Djokovic at nearly evens and Murray out at 7-2 seems way off to me.

Is that not saying Djokovic chances of winning are just under 50% but Murray's chances are about 22%? i.e. Novak is more than twice as likely to win as Andy? I don't see that at all.

Rafa is 39/1 on Betfair. Probably worth £2 just in case.

Murray 4/1 on Betfair is the bet for me. I would guess this may come in a bit if he is in Fed's half of the draw.

HM Murdock wrote:Djokovic at nearly evens and Murray out at 7-2 seems way off to me.

Is that not saying Djokovic chances of winning are just under 50% but Murray's chances are about 22%? i.e. Novak is more than twice as likely to win as Andy? I don't see that at all.

Hmm, when you put it that way it sounds even better odds on Novak. He has won 66% of slams this year and 66% of Masters entered. That would suggest that 50-50 odds is very favourable.

I would say Novak is considerably more than twice as likely to win as Andy.

Murray v Kyrgios in first round?! Wow. Tough draw but great draw for a fan.

Danny_1982 wrote:Murray v Kyrgios in first round?! Wow. Tough draw but great draw for a fan.

Probably the worst draw possible for Murray. Obviously he's massive favourite, but could see him losing.

Kyrgios is capable of sublime or ridiculous.

Fed gets the Murray SF.

Novak v Rafa in QF.

Murray, Wawrinka, Berdych all in Federer's half.
Nishikori, Ferrer and Nadal in Djokovic's.

If Nishikori and Ferrer are still injured, that is a shockingly imbalanced draw!

YvonneT wrote:Murray, Wawrinka, Berdych all in Federer's half.
Nishikori, Ferrer and Nadal in Djokovic's.

If Nishikori and Ferrer are still injured, that is a shockingly imbalanced draw!

Sounds like a great draw for Djokovic.

YvonneT wrote:Murray, Wawrinka, Berdych all in Federer's half.
Nishikori, Ferrer and Nadal in Djokovic's.

If Nishikori and Ferrer are still injured, that is a shockingly imbalanced draw!

It's a decent draw for Djokovic - for Nadal to beat him in the QF will require a substantial reversal in their respective form, and then he should have a very negotiable SF. His status as favourite is enhanced.

Murray would have to go through Wawrinka>Federer>Djokovic. Assuming he gets past Kyrgios.

Guest82 wrote:Murray would have to go through Wawrinka>Federer>Djokovic.  Assuming he gets past Kyrgios.

In the unlikely event of Kyrgios beating Murray, what odds on a Wawrinka re-match.....